僕は売らない、今が買い【S&P500, NASDAQ100】

Summary

The video script discusses the speaker's investment portfolio, highlighting a recent decrease in value due to market fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding risks in stock investments. It provides an analysis of the S&P 500 index, the impact of inflation indices like CPI, and the role of long-term interest rates in market movements. The speaker also touches on geopolitical tensions and their influence on the market, advocating a long-term, steady investment approach despite short-term volatility.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker's portfolio is heavily invested in US-based assets, with about 83% in US stocks and over 11% in Nasdaq funds, reflecting a significant exposure to US market movements.
• 📉 There has been a continued decrease in the portfolio's value for two consecutive weeks, which the speaker finds unusual but also a natural consequence of taking risks in stock investments.
• 🌡️ The speaker discusses the volatility in the stock market, noting that while the S&P 500 has experienced a one-sided downward trend, there was an increase in volatility towards the end of the week.
• 💹 The speaker observes that the US dollar has become weaker against the yen, breaking through the 150 yen mark and reaching levels not seen in recent years, affecting the evaluation amount of foreign stock investments.
• 📊 The main factor impacting the US market, as highlighted by the speaker, is the US long-term interest rates, which have significantly influenced market trends and led to a substantial rise in yields.
• 🔍 The speaker mentions that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the possibility of Israel being attacked by Iran, have contributed to the market's nervousness and subsequent stock price declines.
• 🛑 The release of the US inflation index (CPI) showed inflation exceeding expectations, which has led the market to focus on the Federal Reserve's next moves regarding interest rates.
• 📉 The speaker points out that while the CoreCPI has started to decline, it still has not reached the target level of around 2%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures.
• 📈 Despite the recent downturns, the speaker emphasizes that the overall market trend since the beginning of the year has not been significantly negative when compared to the initial levels.
• 💡 The speaker encourages viewers to view stock price fluctuations as a normal part of investing, likening it to breathing, and advises maintaining a long-term perspective on investments.
• 🌐 The speaker ends by discussing the importance of separating emotions from investment decisions, suggesting that focusing on the long-term and not overreacting to market volatility is key to successful investing.

Q & A

What is the current status of the speaker's portfolio as of April?

As of April, the speaker's portfolio is dominated by US-based assets, accounting for nearly 83%, with the rest being funds, which make up over 11%. The portfolio has experienced a decrease in value, continuing the trend from the previous week.

How has the speaker's portfolio been affected by the recent market movements?

The speaker's portfolio has seen a rough decrease of 67 yen in valuation, continuing the trend of depreciation from the previous week, which is considered unusual as the speaker usually mentions waking up to find more money.

What is the speaker's perspective on the risks associated with stock investments?

The speaker acknowledges that taking risks is inherent in stock investments, and that sometimes waking up to find money decreased is a natural consequence of those risks. They advise viewing stock investments as a long-term endeavor.

How did the S&P 500 perform during the week discussed in the script?

The S&P 500 experienced a one-sided downward trend during the week, with volatility increasing towards the end. It ended with a decrease of 1.6%, despite a significant drop in the middle of the week.

What factors contributed to the volatility and decrease in the US stock market during the week?

The speaker mentions two main factors: the sharp rise in long-term interest rates, which reached 4.5%, and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the situation involving Israel and Iran, which caused market anxiety.

What is the speaker's view on the recent inflation figures and their impact on the market?

The speaker notes that both the overall CPI and Core CPI exceeded expectations, indicating persistent inflation. This has led to a market focus on the Federal Reserve's next steps, with the speaker suggesting that the market is anticipating a more aggressive stance against inflation.

How does the speaker interpret the recent movements in the US dollar against the yen?

The speaker observes that the US dollar has broken through the 150 yen resistance level and has become more stable, reaching a level that is considered the most yen-depreciated in recent years.

What is the speaker's strategy for investing in the face of market volatility?

The speaker advocates for a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, suggesting that investors should not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations and should focus on accumulating modest returns over time.

What advice does the speaker have for new investors who may be unsettled by market movements?

The speaker advises new investors to get used to market volatility and to strengthen their mental resilience. They should view market fluctuations as a normal part of investing and not be deterred by short-term losses.

How does the speaker plan to continue their investment approach despite market uncertainties?

The speaker intends to continue with a consistent investment approach, focusing on long-term holding and dollar-cost averaging, regardless of short-term market conditions.

What is the speaker's view on the role of emotions in investment decisions?

The speaker believes that emotions can lead to poor investment decisions, such as panic selling. They suggest that investors should aim to separate their emotions from their investment strategies to avoid making impulsive decisions based on fear or greed.