TPAI Materi Pembelajaran 5: Penilaian Saham

Summary

This video covers the essential concepts of investment, stock valuation, and portfolio analysis. It introduces the basic idea of stocks through an illustrative example of a Bakso business seeking investment. The video explains three types of stock values: book value, market value, and intrinsic value, and delves into dividend models, including constant and non-constant growth models. It also discusses the importance of estimating cash flows, discounting, and understanding the required rate of return. Finally, it touches on relative models like Price-Earnings ratios and the complexities of determining intrinsic value in stock investments.

Takeaways

• 😀 Understanding stock ownership: When a person invests in a business, they become a shareholder, sharing both the profits and risks equally if their ownership is equal.
• 😀 Three types of stock valuation: Book value (based on the company's books), Market value (the trading price), and Intrinsic value (the estimated 'true' value by analysts).
• 😀 Intrinsic value is determined by the present value of future cash flows, mainly in the form of dividends, and requires estimating the discount rate (cost of capital).
• 😀 Dividend models are used to estimate stock value: constant growth dividends and non-constant growth dividends.
• 😀 A dividend model with constant growth assumes that dividends will grow at a fixed rate indefinitely, and its value is calculated by dividing the next year’s dividend by the difference between the discount rate and the growth rate.
• 😀 If dividends grow at a constant rate, the stock price will be higher than if the dividend remains constant, highlighting the value of growth in dividends.
• 😀 The required return (or discount rate) for a stock consists of two components: the dividend yield and the capital gain yield (growth rate of stock price).
• 😀 Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) helps determine the required rate of return by incorporating the risk-free rate, market risk premium, and stock’s beta (a measure of risk).
• 😀 For stocks with non-constant growth, you calculate the present value of dividends for the first few years, then apply a constant growth model for the later years to estimate the intrinsic value.
• 😀 Relative valuation models, like the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), are useful for comparing stocks to others in the market, allowing investors to assess whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued based on comparable companies.

Q & A

What is a stock, and how is it related to ownership in a company?

A stock represents ownership in a company. In the provided example, a small business is started with a group of people, where each person invests a certain amount, owning a share of the business. This share or stock entitles each individual to a proportional right to profits and a responsibility for losses.

What are the three types of stock values mentioned in the script?

The three types of stock values mentioned are: 1) Book Value, which is calculated based on the company's financial records; 2) Market Value, which is the price at which a stock is currently traded in the market; and 3) Intrinsic Value, which represents the true value of the stock based on future cash flows and dividends.

What is intrinsic value, and how is it estimated?

Intrinsic value refers to the true or theoretical value of a stock, which is calculated based on the present value of its future dividends or cash flows. It is often estimated by analysts, and different analysts may have varying estimates of a stock's intrinsic value due to differences in assumptions and methods.

What is the relationship between dividends and intrinsic value in stock valuation?

The intrinsic value of a stock is calculated by estimating the future dividends that will be received and discounting them to present value. The higher the expected future dividends and the lower the required rate of return (cost of capital), the higher the intrinsic value of the stock.

What is the discount rate (cost of capital), and how does it impact stock valuation?

The discount rate, or cost of capital, is the rate of return that an investor expects to earn from an investment. It reflects the risk associated with the stock. A higher discount rate decreases the intrinsic value of the stock, while a lower discount rate increases its value.

What is the difference between a constant dividend growth model and a non-constant dividend growth model?

A constant dividend growth model assumes that dividends will grow at a fixed rate indefinitely, while a non-constant dividend growth model accounts for dividends that may grow at varying rates over time before stabilizing at a constant rate.

How do you calculate the value of a stock with constant dividend growth?

The value of a stock with constant dividend growth can be calculated by dividing the expected dividend for the next year by the difference between the required rate of return and the constant growth rate.

What is the formula for calculating the intrinsic value of a stock with a growing dividend?

The formula for calculating the intrinsic value of a stock with a growing dividend is: Value = D1 / (r - g), where D1 is the expected dividend for the next year, r is the required rate of return, and g is the constant growth rate of dividends.

What are the key factors that influence an investor's required rate of return?

The required rate of return is influenced by the investor's perception of the risk associated with the investment, including factors like market conditions, the company's performance, and the expected future growth of the business.

How does the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) help determine the required rate of return?

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) helps determine the required rate of return by considering the risk-free rate, the stock's beta (a measure of its volatility relative to the market), and the market risk premium. It calculates the expected return that investors should require for taking on the risk associated with the stock.