【第519話】爆益相場開演！！大チャンス！！〇〇を見逃すな！

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses recent developments in the stock market, highlighting significant fluctuations and the S&P 500's performance. The speaker references comments by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, on adjusting monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts. The focus also shifts to technical indicators like the ZBT Indicator, signaling potential market shifts and opportunities for investment. Despite some short-term market dips, the speaker remains bullish on long-term growth, emphasizing the importance of buying during market corrections and highlighting strong buy signals in the current market. The video concludes with an encouragement for viewers to stay engaged and make strategic investments.

Takeaways

• 😀 The S&P 500 index saw a 1% increase, with all major indices, including the Russell 2000, experiencing gains, signaling a positive market trend.
• 😀 The speaker's portfolio ended close to ¥17 million, just ¥300,000 shy of reaching the ¥20 million mark, with strong weekly fluctuations in the market.
• 😀 Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, indicated that the timing for rate cuts has arrived, with a focus on data-driven adjustments, influencing market expectations.
• 😀 U.S. stocks rebounded following Powell's comments, while international bond yields decreased, and the market anticipated multiple rate cuts before the end of the year.
• 😀 The speaker anticipates that a falling dollar could present a favorable opportunity for U.S. stocks despite the potential for losses due to currency fluctuations.
• 😀 Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley highlighted the upcoming U.S. employment data as crucial for shaping the Fed's next moves, with labor market trends as a key determinant.
• 😀 The ZBT indicator, a signal of market extremes, was activated, pointing to a potential for significant returns despite the possibility of short-term declines.
• 😀 Despite the activation of strong buy signals, historical data shows that a few instances of short-term drops (5%-10%) occurred even after positive signals.
• 😀 The ZBT indicator triggered again on August 19, with expectations of strong upward movement in the market, though caution is advised regarding potential brief setbacks.
• 😀 The 'In's' pattern, a potential bearish signal, was observed, suggesting possible temporary declines in stock prices, but it is unlikely to lead to a major crash.
• 😀 Additional bullish indicators, such as the T indicator, have signaled an excellent buying opportunity, with a strong historical track record for market gains following similar signals.

Q & A

What was the performance of the S&P 500 on August 23rd, 2025?

The S&P 500 rose by over 1% on August 23rd, 2025. The Russell 2000, which consists of small-cap stocks, also rose by 3.2%. The portfolio of the speaker saw a 7.45% increase compared to the previous day, finishing just under 17 million yen, and the goal of reaching 20 million yen was in sight.

What was the key takeaway from Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference?

Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the time had come to adjust financial policies. He indicated that the timing and pace of rate cuts would depend on upcoming data and risk factors. Powell also noted that inflation was showing progress and was moving towards the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

How did Powell's speech impact the US stock market and interest rates?

Powell's speech led to a rebound in US stocks, and international bond yields declined. The 2-year US Treasury bond yield dropped below 4%, with markets now expecting more than 100 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

What effect does a declining dollar have on US stocks for those holding dollar-based assets?

A declining dollar reduces the value of dollar-based assets, including US stocks. As the dollar falls, assets held in US equities are affected by exchange rate changes, causing a decrease in the portfolio's value for those holding assets in dollars.

What is the ZBT Indicator, and why is it considered important?

The ZBT Indicator signals when an asset has been oversold and then quickly rebounds to an overbought condition. The speaker believes it is a powerful signal, as historical data has shown that following the activation of the ZBT Indicator, significant returns have often been realized over the next few months or even up to a year.

What are the potential risks despite the positive signals from the ZBT Indicator?

While the ZBT Indicator often leads to strong returns, past data also shows that market corrections of 5-10% can occur in the short term after the signal is activated. This means that investors should be aware of possible temporary declines even during generally positive periods.

What happened in the market after the ZBT Indicator activated in August 2023?

The ZBT Indicator activated on August 19, 2023, and despite occasional market weaknesses, the speaker expects significant growth over the following year. The indicator's activation generally correlates with positive performance, though some temporary drops might still occur.

What did the speaker predict regarding the market's behavior after the recent 'weak' signals?

The speaker predicted that despite some weak signals in the market, such as a potential downturn indicated by 'inverted candlesticks,' the market would likely rebound. The speaker emphasized that such signals are not necessarily indicative of a major crash and that they may present an opportunity for buying.

How did Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley view the importance of employment data over Powell's speech?

Michael Wilson pointed out that the employment data, to be released in early September, would be more critical than Powell's speech in determining future monetary policy. This is because the labor market's performance directly influences the Federal Reserve's actions, a sentiment the Federal Reserve has consistently expressed.

What does the speaker think about buying US stocks during the current market conditions?

The speaker views the current market conditions as an excellent opportunity to buy US stocks, as indicated by various positive signals, including the ZBT Indicator and other sentiment analysis indicators. The speaker stresses that even though there may be some short-term declines, the long-term outlook remains strong.