SECRET TO OVER/UNDER GOALS - Football Betting Tips and Strategies

Summary

This video offers insights into betting strategies for over and under goals markets in football. It advises against betting on the common over/under 2.5 goals market due to its unpredictability and the bookmakers' advantage. Instead, it recommends focusing on over 1.5 and under 3.5 goals for safer bets, illustrating how combining these in doubles can increase expected value and returns. The presenter also introduces a new Telegram channel for sharing betting picks and discusses the importance of managing risk to protect one's betting bank.

Takeaways

• 😀 Over and under goals markets are popular for betting on the total number of goals scored in a game.
• 🎯 The most common split offered by bookmakers is over and under 2.5 goals.
• ⚽ Betting 'under' aims for low-scoring outcomes, while 'over' anticipates more goals.
• 📉 Bookmakers structure odds to maintain an advantage, making 'over/under 2.5 goals' a losing market long-term.
• 📈 The unpredictability of football makes it risky to rely solely on over/under 2.5 goals betting.
• 💡 An alternative strategy is suggested: betting on over 1.5 goals for games expected to have goals and under 3.5 for low-scoring games.
• 🔐 This approach offers a level of insurance against the unpredictability of football matches.
• 💰 The expected value of a bet can be calculated by considering the probability and potential returns.
• 📊 Using the Poisson distribution can help in calculating expected goals and making informed betting decisions.
• 🤝 Combining safer bets into doubles can increase the expected value and reduce the impact of unpredictable events.
• 📈 The video creator has a dedicated football bank Telegram channel for sharing picks and strategies.

Q & A

What is the focus of the video series mentioned in the transcript?

The video series focuses on 'both teams to score' betting, examining various factors to consider when placing bets on football games.

What is the most common split offered by bookmakers in the over/under goals market?

The most common split offered by bookmakers is over and under 2.5 goals.

Why does the bookmaker highlight the over/under 2.5 goals market separately?

The bookmaker highlights the over/under 2.5 goals market separately because it is a popular market and the odds are structured to give the bookmakers an advantage.

Why is betting on over/under 2.5 goals considered a losing market in the long run?

Betting on over/under 2.5 goals is considered a losing market in the long run because football is unpredictable, and the odds are structured to favor the bookmakers.

What alternative markets does the speaker recommend to avoid the unpredictability of football?

The speaker recommends the over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 goals markets as alternatives to maximize returns and minimize the impact of football's unpredictability.

What is the strategy behind focusing on over 1.5 goals and under 3.5 goals?

The strategy is to combine safer picks into doubles to eliminate unpredictability and increase the expected value on bets, leading to a higher hit rate and more money in the long run.

How does the speaker use the Poisson distribution in their analysis?

The speaker uses the Poisson distribution to calculate the expected goals for an upcoming game, which helps in determining the probability of over/under goals scenarios.

What is the significance of the 57% probability mentioned in the transcript?

The 57% probability signifies the bookmakers' assessment that there is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals occurring in a particular game, based on the odds they offer.

Why is it beneficial to bet on two games at lower odds with higher probability?

Betting on two games at lower odds with higher probability provides a better insurance against unpredictability and can result in a higher expected value of profit.

What does the speaker mean by 'protecting our bank'?

The speaker means minimizing the risk of significant losses by choosing safer bets and avoiding high-risk, single-game bets that could result in losing the initial stake.

What is the significance of the speaker reaching 3,000 subscribers?

Reaching 3,000 subscribers is a milestone for the speaker, indicating growing support and engagement from the audience, which is acknowledged and appreciated.