The Real Secret to Over & Under goals betting success | Hack to Always win with Over/Under goals
Summary
TLDRThis video script delves into the nuances of football betting, emphasizing that it extends beyond mathematical analysis to include players' form, team style, and game intentions. It discusses how different strategies apply to league games versus high-stakes matches like the World Cup or Champions League finals. The speaker advises considering team intentions and players' availability, using Spain's possession style as an example to predict under 2.5 goals in matches against average teams. The script also covers various team approaches in club football, like West Ham's offensive stance against Liverpool suggesting over 2.5 goals, and the defensive mindset of teams aiming for a draw, like Barcelona against Alaves, recommending under 3.5 goals. The key to successful betting lies in confident conclusions drawn from recent games, player availability, and team interactions.
Takeaways
- ⚽ Football betting involves more than just mathematical analysis; understanding player form and team intentions is crucial.
- 📊 Mathematical analysis works well for league games but is less reliable for competitions like the Euros, World Cup, or Champions League.
- 🔑 Players are the most important factor in betting, and analyzing key players' form helps predict game outcomes.
- 🇪🇸 Spain's possession-based football style leads to deep defending from opponents, often resulting in low-scoring matches.
- 🛡️ Against solid defensive teams, Spain is likely to score only 1 or 2 goals, making an under 2.5 or under 3.5 bet a safer option.
- 🏴 England, like Spain, scores more against weaker teams but may struggle against decent teams with strong defenses.
- 💥 In club football, some teams try to win even against stronger opponents, while others aim for a draw by defending deeply.
- 🔍 Researching players' availability and form in the last five games can help predict whether teams will score or concede.
- 🤔 Barcelona tends to struggle against teams aiming for a draw, making under 3.5 goals a safer bet in these matches.
- 🎯 To succeed in over/under betting, focus on games where you can confidently predict the outcome based on player form, style of play, and defensive strategies.
Q & A
What is the importance of considering players' form and intentions in football betting?
-Players' form and intentions are crucial in football betting because they go beyond mathematical analysis and influence the outcome of the game. Understanding the players' condition and the team's strategy can provide insights into the potential scoring patterns.
Why does the mathematical analysis method work better for league games than for international competitions?
-Mathematical analysis is more effective for league games because it relies on patterns and statistics that are consistent over a longer period. International competitions have less frequent matches and involve varying levels of team motivation and player commitment, making them less predictable with mathematical models alone.
How does Spain's playing style affect the likelihood of scoring in their matches?
-Spain is known for their possession football, which often leads to the opposing team defending deeply. This style typically results in fewer goals scored against them, making 'under' bets a safer option, especially against moderate or average teams.
What is the strategy for betting on matches where one team is expected to play defensively?
-When one team is expected to play defensively, like 'parking the bus', it's likely that the match will have fewer goals. In such cases, betting on 'under' goals is recommended, as the defensive team will be focused on preventing goals rather than scoring.
How can the availability of key players impact the outcome of a football match in betting?
-The availability of key players can significantly influence a match's outcome. If important players are missing, it can affect the team's performance, potentially leading to fewer goals or a change in the team's usual scoring pattern.
Why is it important to consider both teams' intentions when betting on football matches?
-Both teams' intentions are important because they determine their playing style and strategy. Teams with different objectives, such as aiming for a win or a draw, will adopt different approaches, which directly affects the number of goals scored.
What factors should be considered when betting on matches between teams with similar abilities?
-When betting on matches between similarly skilled teams, consider their defensive strengths, recent form, head-to-head records, and the importance of the match. These factors can help predict whether the match will result in a high-scoring affair or a more defensive game.
How can observing team reactions during a match provide insights for betting?
-Observing how teams react to each other during a match can reveal their tactics and strategies. This can help predict how the match will unfold, providing valuable information for making informed betting decisions.
What role do live score apps play in enhancing betting strategies?
-Live score apps provide real-time data on player performance and team statistics, which can be used to make more informed betting decisions. They allow bettors to track the form of players and teams, adjusting their bets based on the latest information.
Why is it recommended to only bet on games where you can confidently draw conclusions?
-Betting only on games where you can confidently draw conclusions helps minimize risk and increase the chances of winning. It involves a thorough analysis of available information, such as team form, player availability, and historical data, to make educated predictions.
How can watching football games for observation rather than entertainment improve betting strategies?
-Watching games with a focus on observation allows bettors to understand team dynamics, player performances, and tactical nuances. This deeper understanding can lead to more accurate predictions and better betting decisions.
Outlines
⚽ Importance of Player Form in Football Betting
The speaker emphasizes that football betting isn't solely based on mathematical analysis but also relies heavily on understanding player form, team play styles, and game intentions. For league games, mathematical analysis can work, but for competitions like the Euros, World Cup, and Champions League, analyzing team intentions is crucial. The performance of key players should be considered before concluding betting outcomes.
🛡️ Example: Spain's Strong Defense in International Matches
Using Spain as an example, the speaker discusses how their possession-based football style forces opponents to defend deeply. Spain's defense is robust, making it difficult for average teams to score. The speaker suggests that betting on 'under 2.5 goals' in matches involving Spain is usually safe, but leaving room for unexpected outcomes (like a 3-0 win) is advisable. Betting on 'under 3.5 goals' is a more conservative choice when Spain faces low-quality teams.
🏴☠️ England and Its Similarity to Spain's Play Style
The speaker compares England's playstyle to Spain, explaining that while England can score many goals against weak teams, they often struggle against decent teams. England is unlikely to concede and may score fewer than two goals against stronger opponents, making careful goal analysis crucial for betting.
⚔️ Betting on Matches Between Strong and Decent Teams
When discussing club football, the speaker notes two types of teams that play against big teams: those that aim for a win and those that park the bus for a draw. For instance, a game between Liverpool and West Ham could see West Ham attacking despite Liverpool's strength. The speaker advises using live score apps to check if key players are in form and whether Liverpool's defense is solid when considering betting on over 2.5 goals.
🛡️ Defensive Mindsets of Smaller Clubs Against Giants
The speaker elaborates on how teams like Almeria or Cadiz tend to defend deeply when facing top clubs like Barcelona. In these scenarios, Barcelona is unlikely to concede, and the game might feature under 3.5 goals. However, when Barcelona faces more ambitious teams like Valencia or Villarreal, the speaker suggests betting on over goals due to the attacking intent of both sides.
🎯 High Possibility of Goal Market Outcomes in Close Matchups
For games between teams with similar abilities—whether they are strong, mid-table, or bottom-table teams—betting strategies shift. The speaker explains that when both teams have strong defenses, the match may result in fewer goals. On the other hand, close matches between equally capable teams can generate high-scoring games if defenses falter.
🔑 Key to Success in Goal Market Betting
The speaker shares the secret to success in under/over goal market betting: only bet on games where you can confidently conclude the outcome using information like recent form and team strategies. Observing matches and studying how teams react to each other’s play is essential for making informed bets, though this strategy isn’t foolproof. Lastly, they recommend using live score apps to track player performance for more precise betting decisions.
📚 Announcing a New Book on Football Betting Strategies
In closing, the speaker hints at an upcoming book that will provide more detailed strategies for football betting. They mention that the new book will improve upon the last one and cover more about football analysis. The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe and turn on notifications to stay updated on new content, especially when the club football season begins.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Mathematical analysis
💡Player form
💡Team style of play
💡Under 2.5/3.5 goals
💡Over 2.5/3.5 goals
💡Team intentions
💡Deep defending
💡Live score apps
💡Big team status
💡Park the bus
Highlights
Football betting involves more than mathematical analysis; it includes understanding players, team form, style of play, and game intentions.
Mathematical analysis is primarily effective for league games, not as much for high-stakes competitions like World Cup or Champions League finals.
Team intentions are crucial, especially in international matches where the purpose of the game plays a significant role.
Players are the most important entities in football betting; their availability and form are key factors.
Spain's possession football often leads to deep defensive play from opponents, making under goals a likely bet.
Against moderate or average teams, Spain is unlikely to concede, suggesting under 2.5 goals as a safe bet.
Unexpected outcomes are possible, hence the recommendation to bet on under 3.5 goals for safety.
When playing against low-quality teams, high scores are expected, but against decent teams, goals are likely to be limited.
In club football, teams either play aggressively against big teams or adopt a defensive strategy aiming for a draw.
West Ham, as a decent team, is likely to play offensively against Liverpool, suggesting over 2.5 goals as a potential bet.
Checking the last five matches and player availability is crucial for making informed bets.
Teams with a mindset of getting a draw, like Alaves against Barcelona, are likely to play defensively, making under goals a safe bet.
Matches between teams with similar abilities can result in either over or under goals depending on their defensive strengths.
The secret to successful under and over goal betting is to bet on games where you can confidently predict outcomes based on available information.
Watching football games with an analytical mindset, focusing on team reactions and player performances, is essential for betting success.
Using live score apps to track player performances across leagues can enhance betting strategies.
The speaker plans to share more insights in an upcoming book, promising detailed information for the next club football season.
Transcripts
I already made videos about Under and
Over goals analysis but some people
still don't fully understand I know we
did some mathematical analysis and all
but football betting is more than
mathematical analysis and more about the
players the form of those players both
team style of play and their intention
or the purpose of the game I know I
mentioned that casually after the whole
analysis process but that doesn't make
it any less important this mathematical
analysis method mostly works for League
games but when we are talking about
competition such as International
Football Euros World Cup final games
champions league and end of season
football you have to take both teams
intentions
seriously like I said the players are
the most important entities once the
important players or informed players
are available the next thing is to draw
up a conclusion for the match for
example in a game between Spain and any
national team we know Spain plays
possession football which will leave any
other decent team or even below average
teams to defend deeply against them as
you know Spain's defense is solid so a
match between them and a moderate or
average team can almost guarantee that
scoring against them is almost zero at
worst they can concede one if a mistake
occurs for instance Spain versus Denmark
Sweden Croatia and the likes their
chances of scoring against Spain are
almost zero but they have a decent
defense and since they will be defending
deeply against Spain that means Spain at
the highest will work hard to score two
goals in that game we could go go for
under 2.5 in this kind of game but the
unexpected can happen the match could
end with Spain winning with a 3 to0
score line or it could end with Spain
scoring two goals and the decent
opponent could get lucky enough to score
one back so to be safe we leave space
for the unexpected and go for under
3.5 if they are playing against a
lowquality team those ones two are going
to play with the aim of packing the bus
but they are likely to concede more than
two against
Spain England is a little bit similar
too against poor teams they could score
a lot but against a decent team you can
be sure to some level that they are not
going to concede and they are likely not
to score up to two that's if they score
at all in club football games there are
two types of teams that play against big
teams the first are those that don't
care about the big team status and are
ready to go all out to win and the
others are those that just want to draw
and will park the bus to get that draw
in a match between Liverpool and West
Ham West Ham is a decent team and they
won't cower or go totally defensive no
matter how strong or big Liverpool is so
they go for the win and try to score
goals for this game we can consider over
2.5 goals Liverpool could score two but
to be confident that West Ham will
contribute at least one goal we need to
find out if the main players are
available and inform through their last
five games with your live score app you
also want to research if Liverpool's
defense has not been totally solid if
you check Liverpool's last five matches
and they've conceded against brenford
Fulham and Brighton then they are more
likely to concede at least one against
West Ham
and you can apply this to any match
too in another game between Barcelona
and Al Maria cottis or alaves these
teams are going with the mindset of
getting a draw so they will most likely
be highly defensive in this type of game
the likelihood of Barka conceding is
almost zero and they are likely going to
struggle to score two or three so under
3.5 goals is a safe option as for
matches between Barka and Valencia or
viel or Sevilla over goals could be a
good option because these teams will
play AR with the aim of winning in games
between teams that are close in terms of
abilities whether they are both strong
teams mid-table or bottom table teams
you'd expect that those types of games
automatically have a high possibility of
overg goals but if these teams both have
strong defenses or are too close in
terms of abilities they are most likely
to cancel each other out and attack to
produce under goals the secret to always
winning with under and overg goal Market
is to only bet on games that you can
confidently draw up conclusions for with
the help of info like the last five
games available players and how both
teams will react to each other's play
I'm not saying this is going to work
100% of the time but this strategy is
what has enabled me to reach a high
level of perfection in goal analysis to
hire your betting game you just need to
watch football games and do not just
watch for entertainment watch to observe
how both teams react against each other
in style of play and for the most
important aspect which are the football
players spend your free time on live
update apps to check live scores for the
best performing players players in all
your favorite leagues there's a lot to
discuss about this but I really hate to
edit videos in my next book which is
going to be better than the last I will
be sharing everything with you when the
club football season starts so if you
haven't click on the notification Bell
to know when I post a new video
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