The dollar is in a secular bear market

Summary

The speaker analyzes currency trends, suggesting the US dollar has ended a 14-year bull market and is entering a bear market. They anticipate a short-term rally in the dollar but believe long-term trends indicate a downward trajectory influenced by the Euro and Yen's strength. The Euro appears to be starting a new bull market, while the Yen is in a long-term rally, both of which could push the dollar lower. Gold, which recently broke above resistance, may continue to rise if the dollar weakens further.

Takeaways

• 📉 The speaker believes the US dollar has completed a 14-year secular bull market and has started a bear market since late 2022.
• 📈 Gold began a rally in July, breaking above the resistance zone and has been in a sideways consolidation since then, with a potential breakout expected soon.
• 🤔 Contrarians, including the speaker, anticipate a dollar rally from the current support zone, marked by pivot points and the 200-week moving average.
• 💶 The Euro, which makes up the largest portion of the dollar index, is suspected to have completed a secular bear market bottom in 2022, possibly starting a new secular bull market.
• 💹 The speaker suggests that if the Euro breaks through the 200-week moving average, the dollar will likely continue to decline.
• 💴 The Japanese Yen is thought to have completed a 12-year secular bear market and is starting a new long-term bull market, which would also push the dollar lower.
• 📊 The speaker expects the Yen's intermediate cycle to rally for at least 15 weeks, suggesting the dollar should drop if the Yen continues to rally.
• 📈 The Euro might be starting a new daily cycle rally, which, if confirmed, would push the dollar lower as it makes another higher high.
• 📉 The speaker notes a potential daily cycle bottom for the dollar, but if the Euro and Yen are in an advancing phase, the dollar may not form a double bottom and will continue to decline.
• 🏆 Gold is currently in a daily cycle low but could consolidate instead of correcting sharply, with a potential breakout above the 2550 resistance zone if the dollar continues to decline.

Q & A

What is the speaker's view on the secular bull market for the US dollar?

The speaker believes that the US dollar has completed a secular bull market that lasted about 14 years and has started a bear market.

When did the speaker indicate the US dollar started its bear market move?

The speaker suggests that the US dollar started its bear market move around the beginning of July.

What is the significance of the 2450 resistance zone mentioned in the context of gold?

The 2450 resistance zone is significant because gold broke out above it, which the speaker sees as a sign of a rally in gold prices.

What is the speaker's expectation for gold's price movement in the short term?

The speaker anticipates that gold might be moving down into a daily cycle low but could consolidate instead of correcting sharply if the dollar continues to decline.

Why does the speaker think the dollar might not rally as expected?

The speaker believes the dollar might not rally as expected because the Euro and the Yen, which make up a significant part of the dollar index, appear to be starting new secular bull markets.

What is the speaker's view on the Euro's role in the US dollar's future movement?

The speaker is convinced that the Euro has completed a secular bear market bottom and is starting a new secular bull market, which would push the dollar lower.

What is the significance of the 200-week moving average for the speaker in analyzing the dollar?

The 200-week moving average is significant as it is a support level for the dollar, and the speaker is watching to see if it will break convincingly to the downside.

What does the speaker suggest about the Yen's market trend?

The speaker suggests that the Yen has completed a 12-year secular bear market and is starting a new long-term bull market rally, which would also push the dollar lower.

What is the speaker's expectation for the intermediate cycle in the Yen?

The speaker expects the intermediate cycle in the Yen to rally for at least 15 weeks or more, indicating that the Yen should continue to rally for many more weeks.

How does the speaker interpret the current daily cycle bottom in the dollar?

The speaker interprets the current daily cycle bottom in the dollar as potentially not forming a double bottom, but rather as a continuation of the dollar's downward trend if the Euro and the Yen continue to rally.

What is the speaker's long-term outlook for the US dollar?

The speaker's long-term outlook for the US dollar is bearish, suggesting that the dollar's rally he is looking for may not materialize for a while, and the dollar could continue to decline.