SKENARIO INDONESIA 2045
Summary
TLDRThe script envisions a 2045 Indonesia with a pragmatic and rational new generation, highly educated and proficient in IT. The government operates transparently and effectively, with a mature democracy and social justice deeply rooted. Despite political pressures, the role of the Constitutional Court and other oversight bodies minimizes government and DPR pressures. The economy resembles a diamond, with a larger middle class and medium-sized industries driving growth and stability. The government applies green economy principles, transitioning to low-carbon energy, and focuses on sustainable development goals. However, challenges remain, including regional disparities, inefficient governance, and a lack of national pride. Despite these, Indonesia progresses towards a hopeful future, addressing environmental and resource issues with innovative solutions.
Takeaways
- 🌐 Indonesia in 2045 is envisioned as a pragmatic and rational society, with a highly educated population proficient in IT and deeply rooted in universal values like democracy and social justice.
- 🏛️ The government operates transparently and effectively, with a mature democracy that includes checks and balances from the constitution court and other oversight bodies.
- 📉 Despite the pressure from the People’s Representative Council (DPR), the role of the judiciary and other oversight institutions minimizes the pressure on the government, promoting critical societal participation.
- 🏢 The political system still has flaws, with many business elites holding positions in state institutions, leading to conflicts of interest and dissatisfaction among the populace.
- 🌱 The 2045 generation views the unity of the Indonesian state not out of historical romanticism but based on the benefits that regions receive from being part of the nation.
- 🏗️ The government strives to maintain the unity of the state by fulfilling regional aspirations, particularly for resource-rich areas, and prioritizing their development.
- 📊 The Indonesian economy by 2045 resembles a diamond shape, with a larger middle class and a significant manufacturing sector, contributing to a more equitable distribution of prosperity and social stability.
- 🌾 The government seriously implements technology in the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure to balance the more advanced industrial sector.
- 🚀 Indonesia becomes one of the world's high-growth industrial nations, with regions interconnected and integrated into the ASEAN and Asia-Pacific economies.
- 📉 The government often lacks responsiveness to global economic cycles, leading to widespread recessions and challenges in oversight and governance.
- 🌳 Indonesia implements sustainable development goals by 2045, focusing on human development, infrastructure and environment, and a green economy to minimize carbon emissions and ensure energy and food security.
Q & A
What is the general perspective of the new generation in Indonesia by 2045 according to the script?
-The new generation in 2045 is described as pragmatic and rational, highly educated, and proficient in IT. They have a deep belief in universal values, especially democracy and social justice.
How is the central government portrayed in the script for the year 2045?
-The central government is depicted as transparent, efficient, and open to criticism. It is seen as more mature in its democratic practices.
What role do the courts and other oversight institutions play in the political scenario of 2045?
-The courts and other oversight institutions minimize the pressure from the DPR on the government, indicating a more balanced system of checks and balances.
How does the script describe the societal participation in 2045?
-Societal participation is described as a critical force that serves as the greatest form of control, not only for the government but also for all institutions, including the DPR.
What is the view of the 2045 generation on the unity of the NKRI (Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia)?
-The 2045 generation sees the unity of NKRI not based on historical romanticism but on the benefits that regions should feel from being part of the republic.
How does the government attempt to maintain the NKRI according to the script?
-The government tries to maintain the NKRI by fulfilling the aspirations of the regions, especially those rich in natural resources, and by prioritizing their development.
What challenges does the central government face in terms of regional development?
-The central government faces challenges such as the misuse of funds for development by regional leaders for political interests and maintaining power, and the lack of quality institutions and human resources in the regions.
What is the economic structure of Indonesia in 2045 as described in the script?
-The economic structure is compared to a bell pepper, with a larger middle class and a larger manufacturing sector in the middle compared to the poor or large conglomerates and small sectors.
How does the government address the agricultural sector and support small and medium enterprises (SMEs)?
-The government seriously applies technology to the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure. It also empowers SMEs and limits the monopoly of large industries.
What is the impact of the government's economic policies on the Indonesian economy by 2045?
-The policies have led to Indonesia becoming one of the world's high-growth industrial nations, with regions interconnected and a robust economy.
What are the challenges faced by the Indonesian government in terms of global economic cycles?
-The government often lacks responsiveness to global economic cycles, leading to widespread recessions, difficulties in oversight, and issues such as land disputes, corruption, and poverty.
How does the script describe Indonesia's geopolitical situation in 2045?
-Despite the challenges and issues, Indonesia's geopolitical situation is moving towards the desired direction, with sustainable development goals being implemented and a green economy being adopted.
What are the sustainable development goals mentioned in the script for 2045?
-The goals include human development through education and health, the availability of infrastructure and environmental growth, and environmental development with good natural resources and environmental quality.
What is the script's view on the implementation of the green economy in Indonesia?
-The script mentions the implementation of a low-carbon economy, which minimizes high-carbon energy use and encourages the transition from high-carbon non-renewable energy to lower-carbon renewable energy.
What conflicts arise from the implementation of sustainable development according to the script?
-Conflicts arise from overlapping interests between the central government, regional governments, local communities, and investors, leading to a decrease in land quality and quantity.
How does the script address the issue of food security in Indonesia?
-The script mentions that food security is still vulnerable due to the inability to be self-sufficient in food, with private sector participation through green banking and green fencing as a fresh approach to address the issue.
What is the script's final assessment of Indonesia's situation in 2045?
-Despite various environmental and resource issues, the script concludes that the spirit and innovation of the people will continue to find solutions, even if they are not as simple as flipping a hand.
Outlines
🌟 Vision of Indonesia's Mature Democracy in 2045
The script envisions a future Indonesia in 2045 where a new generation with a pragmatic and rational outlook has emerged. Almost everyone in this generation has a high level of education and mastery over IT. Global interactions have instilled a deep belief in universal values, particularly democracy and social justice. These principles are applied not only in governance but also in bureaucracy. The central government operates transparently, effectively, and is open to criticism, making democracy appear more mature. Despite the ongoing pressure from the House of Representatives (DPR), the role of the Constitutional Court and other oversight institutions minimizes the pressure on the government. Critical public participation emerges as a major control force, not only for the government but also for all institutions, including the DPR. However, the political system still has flaws, with many business elites holding positions in state institutions, leading to conflicts of interest and dissatisfaction among the public. The 2045 generation views the unity of the NKRI not out of historical romanticism but based on the benefits that regions should feel from joining the NKRI. The government tries to maintain the NKRI by fulfilling regional aspirations, especially for resource-rich areas, and prioritizes their development. However, the quality of institutions and human resources in these regions is not always good and even, leading to misuse of development funds for political purposes and maintaining power. Rapid development in new areas becomes a magnet for migration from densely populated areas like Java, leading to social crises in the central areas.
🚀 Indonesia's Economic and Social Progress by 2045
By 2045, Indonesia's economy resembles a diamond shape with a larger middle class compared to the poor population and conglomerates. The middle class plays a significant role in the economy, promoting cooperation between large and small industries, and fostering entrepreneurship in various regions, leading to more equitable prosperity and maintaining economic and social stability. The government seriously applies technology in the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure to balance the more advanced industrial sector. Additionally, the government actively empowers micro, small, and medium enterprises (UMKM) and imposes restrictions on large industries regarding land ownership monopolies and oligopolies. These policies create a harmonious business climate and a healthy market, making Indonesia one of the world's high-growth industrial nations. The regions are interconnected, and Indonesia is connected with ASEAN countries and other major economies in the Asia-Pacific. However, the government often lacks responsiveness to global economic business cycles, leading to recessions in numerous and widespread areas, making supervision difficult. This situation leads to disparities in the quality of regional governments, violations of land regulations, land disputes between people and industries, and corruption, although in reduced quantities and qualities. Despite the challenges, Indonesia's geographical condition as an archipelago with a large and diverse population remains a challenge for efficient, effective, and fair national management.
🌱 Sustainable Development and Environmental Challenges in 2045
In 2045, Indonesia has implemented sustainable development concepts, focusing on three main pillars: human development through education and health, infrastructure and economic growth, and environmental development with the availability of natural resources and good environmental quality. Indonesia has adopted a green economy system, promoting low-carbon policies to minimize the use of high-carbon energy due to serious pollution issues. The transition from high-carbon non-renewable energy to low-carbon renewable energy is beneficial for national energy resilience. On the other hand, spatial optimization is carried out to allow sector development without damaging the environment, referring to land, water, air, and other natural resources management. However, there are still conflicts due to overlapping interests between the central government, regional governments, local communities, and investors, affecting the quality and quantity of land use. Despite inclusive economic programs, disparities remain an issue. Food security is still vulnerable due to the inability to be self-sufficient in food, affected by global food deficits. The participation of the private sector with green banking and green fencing concepts brings fresh air amid various problems, providing loans for development programs that strengthen national energy and food security. Various environmental and natural resource issues will continue to arise even in 2045, but the spirit and innovation will give birth to various solutions, although not as easy as turning one's hand.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Pragmatic and Rational
💡Social Justice
💡Transparency
💡Constitutive Court
💡Critical Participation
💡Economic Structure
💡Green Economy
💡Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
💡Inclusive Economy
💡Nationalism
💡Geopolitical Challenges
Highlights
In 2045, Indonesia is filled with a new generation that is pragmatic and rational, with almost all having higher education and mastery of IT.
Global interactions have deeply rooted the values of universal principles, especially democracy and social justice.
The central government operates transparently, effectively, and is open to criticism, with a more mature democracy.
The role of the Constitutional Court and other oversight institutions minimizes the pressure of the People's Representative Council (DPR) on the government.
Critical public participation emerges as the greatest control force, not only for the government but also for all institutions including the DPR.
The 2045 generation views the unity of the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI) not based on historical romanticism but on regional benefits from joining NKRI.
The government tries to maintain NKRI by fulfilling the aspirations of rich resource regions and prioritizing their development.
However, central efforts to build regions are not always supported by good quality institutions and evenly distributed human resources.
Some regional leaders misuse funds for political interests and to maintain power, leading to rapid development in new regions attracting migration from densely populated areas like Java.
The quality of human resources in indigenous communities is competing with incomers in exploiting regional wealth, while some regions are rich in development and others are less touched.
This disparity causes jealousy leading to a desire for disintegration.
Indonesia's economy in 2045 resembles a diamond shape with a larger middle class compared to the poor or conglomerates, and a larger manufacturing sector compared to small and large sectors.
The middle class has an independent, critical attitude and highly values equality, playing a significant role in the economy by promoting partnerships between large and small/medium industries.
The government seriously applies technology to the agricultural sector and supports it with good infrastructure to balance the previously more advanced industrial sector.
The government also empowers micro, small and medium enterprises (UMKM) and limits large industries in terms of land ownership monopolies and oligopolies.
By 2045, Indonesia has become one of the world's high-growth industrial nations, with interconnected regions and connections to ASEAN countries and other Asia-Pacific economic powers.
However, the Indonesian government often lacks responsiveness to global economic business cycles, resulting in widespread regional recessions.
Despite various challenges, by 2045, Indonesia has implemented sustainable development goals focusing on human development, infrastructure and economic growth, and environmental development.
Indonesia has adopted a green economy system with a low-carbon economy, minimizing high-carbon energy use and transitioning from high-carbon non-renewable energy to lower-carbon renewable energy.
Spatial optimization is carried out so that sectors can develop without damaging the environment, but conflicts still arise from overlapping interests in land use planning.
Private sector participation with green banking and green fencing concepts provides funding for development programs that strengthen national energy and food security.
Despite various environmental and natural resource issues, innovation and spirit give birth to various solutions, even if they are not as simple as flipping a hand.
Transcripts
Hai
skenario mata air
2045 Indonesia diisi generasi baru yang
berpandangan pragmatis dan rasional
generasi saat itu hampir semua
berpendidikan tinggi dan menguasai it
interaksi Global menanamkan keyakinan
mendalam pada nilai-nilai universal
khususnya demokrasi dan keadilan sosial
prinsip keadilan sosial dan demokrasi
diterapkan pula pada birokrasi
[Musik]
pemerintahan pusat berjalan transparan
efektif dan terbuka pada kritik
demokrasi pun terlihat lebih dewasa
[Musik]
pada 2045 tekanan DPR terhadap
pemerintah masih berlangsung
namun peran mahkamah konstitusi dan
lembaga pengawas lainnya meminimalkan
tekanan DPR the ia pemerintah
partisipasi kritis masyarakat muncul
sebagai kekuatan kontrol terbesar tak
hanya bagi pemerintah tapi juga bagi
semua lembaga termasuk DPR demokrasi
tampak sempurna
sayang sistem politik masih bercela di
pusat banyak elit bisnis menjabat
Pimpinan lembaga negara
akibatnya cara muncul konflik
kepentingan
rakyat tak puas politik memanas
generasi
2045 memandang ikatan NKRI bukan lagi
atas dasar romantisme sejarah tapi
manfaat daerah harus merasakan manfaat
dari keputusan bergabung dengan NKRI
pemerintah berusaha mempertahankan NKRI
dengan memenuhi harapan
daerah-daerah daerah kaya sumber daya
alam sebagai penyumbang lekas negara
dapat perhatian lebih
aspirasi mereka sangat diperhatikan
Pembangunan Daerah Mereka pun selalu
diprioritaskan
usaha pusat membangun daerah sayangnya
tidak selalu didukung kualitas institusi
dan SDM daerah yang baik dan merata
banyak kepala daerah justru
menyalahgunakan gelontoran dana
pembangunan dari pusat untuk kepentingan
politik dan mempertahankan kekuasaan
pembangunan yang pesat di daerah baru
jadi daya tarik migrasi dari daerah
padat seperti Jawa
di daerah pusat pembangunan baru
menghadapi krisis sosial
Hai kualitas sdm masyarakat asli kalah
bersaing dengan pendatang dalam
memanfaatkan kekayaan daerah
sementara ada daerah yang berlimpah
pembangunan ada juga daerah yang kurang
tersentuh pembangunan
kesenjangan ini menimbulkan kecemburuan
yang berbuntut keinginan disintegrasi
pendek kata seperti mata air bangsa ini
melahirkan generasi-generasi baru
pengalaman hidup yang berbeda dengan
pendahulunya
membuat generasi 2045 juga punya
pandangan yang beda termasuk pandangan
dalam bernegara
[Musik]
skenario sungai
Hai
struktur ekonomi Indonesia tahun 2045
menyerupai belah ketupat
jumlah kelas menengah lebih besar
dibanding Penduduk miskin maupun
konglomerat begitupun dengan sektor
manufaktur sektor menengah lebih besar
dibanding sektor kecil maupun sektor
besar kelas menengah ini memiliki sikap
Mandiri kritis dan menjunjung tinggi
kesetaraan
mereka juga memiliki peran besar dalam
ekonomi selain mendorong terciptanya
kemitraan antara industri besar kecil
dan menengah mereka juga banyak mencetak
wirausaha di berbagai daerah langkah ini
membantu meningkatkan kemakmuran
masyarakat lebih merata sehingga
stabilitas ekonomi dan sosial lebih
terjaga
disisi lain pemerintah secara serius
menerapkan teknologi pada sektor Agro
serta menopangnya dengan infrastruktur
yang baik
ini untuk mengimbangi bagi sektor
industri yang lebih dulu maju
[Musik]
Selain itu pemerintah juga giat
memperdayakan UMKM serta melakukan
pembatasan pada industri besar dalam hal
pemilikan lahan monopoli Oligopoli dan
lain-lain
kebijakan inilah yang membuat iklim
kemitraan berjalan serasi Dan Pasar
menjadi sehat
hasilnya pada 2045 Indonesia menjadi
salah satu negara industri dengan
pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi di dunia
sebagai raksasa ekonomi tahun itu
daerah-daerah sudah saling terhubung
bahkan Indonesia terhubung dengan
negara-negara ASEAN dan negara Ekonomi
raksasa lainnya di Asia Pasifik Sayang
pemerintah Indonesia kerap kurang
tanggap Pada siklus bisnis ekonomi
global yang berakibat Resesi daerah yang
jumlahnya ratusan dan tersebar luas
membuat melintas sulit melakukan
pengawasan kondisi ini menimbulkan
kesenjangan kualitas pemerintah daerah
pelanggaran UMR insentif yang tak tepat
sasaran serta kemiskinan sengketa tanah
antara rakyat dengan industri masih
terjadi begitu juga dengan korupsi
tetapi dengan kuantitas dan kualitas
yang jauh berkurang
Hai kondisi geografis kepulauan dengan
jumlah penduduk banyak dan beragam masih
jadi kendala bagi pengelolaan negara
yang efisien efektif dan adil
Hai ekonomi Indonesia 2014 5 ibarat
Sungai meski tercemar sampah persoalan
namun Kondisinya masih cukup efektif
untuk mendorong perekonomian bangsa ke
arah yang benar yaitu ekonomi yang
berkeadilan sosial
skenario kepulauan
2045 Indonesia eksis sebagai negara
multikultur dan pluralis meski belum
sampai menjadi negara terbesar namun
perekonomian meningkat cukup signifikan
Indonesia juga sudah bisa Swasembada
pangan
sayangnya dibalik pencapaian itu
semangat nasionalisme bangsa justru
rendah
I Max rakyat termasuk ormas partai
bahkan birokrat TNI dan Polri mengalami
krisis nasionalisme
seringkali kepentingan pribadi dan
golongan di atas segalanya
kebijakan pemerintah yang tidak
konsisten dan tumpang tindih serta
kurangnya persiapan infrastruktur untuk
mengantisipasi bonus demografi juga
membuat efektivitas dan efisiensi negara
menjadi rendah
di sisi pertahanan kekuatan militer
cukup besar tetapi tidak efektif dan
tidak efisien karena teknologinya sudah
tidak sesuai
pengamalan maritim belum maksimal bahkan
pengaturan wilayah penerbangan Nusantara
mosi dilakukan negara asing
Hai kondisi ini membuat diplomasi
Indonesia lemah dihadapan dunia
internasional
pendek kata secara geopolitik hamparan
kepulauan nusantara adalah anugrah yang
luar biasa tapi di sisi pertahanan
penjagaan dan pengelolaan wilayah seluas
ini sangat Penuh Tantangan apalagi jika
negara masih didera beragam salah
kebijakan
ibar berlayar di Kepulauan yang sangat
luas meski menghadapi berbagai tantangan
dan persoalan
geopolitik Indonesia 2045
berhasil menuju ke arah yang diharapkan
[Musik]
kinaryo air terjun
tahun 2045 Indonesia telah menerapkan
konsep perencanaan pembangunan
berkelanjutan atau sustainable
Development Goals
langkah ini sebagai usaha menjawab isu
depresi sumber daya alam kerusakan
lingkungan perlindungan sosial dan
ketahanan pangan
tiga pilar utama pembangunan saat itu
yaitu pilar pertama meliputi pembangunan
manusia lewat pendidikan dan kesehatan
pilar kedua berupa ketersediaan sarana
prasarana lingkungan serta pertumbuhan
ekonomi
sedang pilar ketiga adalah pembangunan
lingkungan yang lebih besar berupa
ketersediaan sumberdaya alam dan
kualitas lingkungan yang baik
[Musik]
2045 Indonesia telah menerapkan sistem
Green economy dengan menerapkan
low-carbon ekonomi
sistem ini mengharuskan kebijakan
ekonomi menekan seminimal mungkin
penggunaan energi tinggi karbon karena
polusi karbon adalah masalah serius bagi
salam pada sisi pembangunan energi
peralihan dari energi tak terbarukan
yang tinggi karbon ke penggunaan energi
terbarukan yang lebih rendah karbon juga
sangat menguntungkan bagi ketahanan
energi dalam negeri
di sisi lain
optimalisasi pemanfaatan ruang dilakukan
sehingga sektor bisa berkembang tanpa
merusak lingkungan
pemanfaatan ruang mengacu pada penataan
gunaan tanah air udara dan sumber daya
alam lainnya
sayangnya Pada pelaksanaan Masih
ditemukan ketimpangan penataan yang
tumpang-tindih antara kepentingan
pemerintah pusat daerah masyarakat lokal
dan investor menimbulkan konflik-konflik
ini membuat kualitas dan kuantitas lahan
berkurang meski pemerintah sudah
melakukan berbagai program perekonomian
inklusif namun kesenjangan masih jadi
persoalan
Hai ketahanan pangan yang masih rentan
akibat belum mampu Swasembada pangan
menjadi goyah akibat kondisi defisit
pangan dunia
partisipasi sektor swasta dengan konsep
green banking dan Green fencing jadi
angin segar di tengah berbagai persoalan
lewat sistem ini mereka memberikan
pinjaman dana pada program-program
pembangunan yang akan memperkuat
ketahanan energi dan pangan nasional
Hai seperti air terjun berbagai
persoalan terkait lingkungan dan
sumberdaya alam memang masih akan terus
datang bahkan di tahun 2045
tetapi semangat dan inovasi melahirkan
berbagai jalan keluar walau itu tak
semudah membalikkan telapak tangan
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