Geographical Societal Risk A Useful Method for Understanding Societal Risk

Summary

This presentation discusses societal risk in urban development planning, focusing on how geographical and societal risks are visualized through maps in the Netherlands. The speaker explains the importance of safety regulations due to the proximity of industrial zones to densely populated areas, especially in cities like Rotterdam. The societal risk maps are introduced as a tool to assess the potential dangers of urban growth near industrial sites, considering factors like individual and societal risk. These maps provide valuable insights for decision-makers, helping to guide emergency responses, urban development, and risk communication.

Takeaways

• 😀 Risk assessment is essential for urban planning to assess potential hazards in areas near industrial and transport systems.
• 😀 Societal risk maps are visual tools used to represent the risk of harm from hazards such as chemicals, industrial accidents, and transportation issues.
• 😀 These maps are not strict criteria but a supplementary tool that aids in understanding the broader picture of risks in urban development.
• 😀 The use of individual and societal risk contours helps determine safe zones for urban planning and is the first step in assessing risk.
• 😀 It is critical to evaluate both individual risk and societal risk when making decisions about land use near hazardous sites.
• 😀 Urban planning should aim to avoid building in areas with excessive risk, such as zones with a risk level above ten to the minus six.
• 😀 Risk maps offer more than just raw data—they help visualize the distribution of risk and provide context for decision-makers.
• 😀 The new version of risk curves will include updated societal risk maps that provide more detailed insights for urban planners.
• 😀 While traditional graphs and data are still required, risk maps are an important tool for gaining deeper insights and improving safety.
• 😀 Collaboration between spatial planners and safety experts ensures that risk assessments are integrated into the broader urban planning process.

Q & A

What is the primary purpose of societal risk maps in the Netherlands?

Societal risk maps are used to visualize the potential societal risks posed by industrial activities and urban development. They help assess the cumulative probability of at least 10, 100, or 1,000 people being killed due to hazards from installations, transport activities, or other sources.

How does the Netherlands handle industrial safety regulations in relation to urban development?

In the Netherlands, risk assessments are conducted during urban development planning. The government uses individual and societal risk as criteria to evaluate whether it is safe to build in certain areas near industrial sites. The focus is on preventing developments that could significantly increase societal risks.

What is the difference between individual risk and societal risk?

Individual risk refers to the likelihood of a person being killed due to an incident at a specific location, while societal risk assesses the cumulative probability of multiple fatalities occurring as a result of a hazard affecting a group of people in a given area.

Why are societal risk maps important for urban planning?

Societal risk maps provide valuable insights for urban planners by highlighting areas of high risk and guiding decisions about where it is safe to build. These maps help identify the size of affected populations and the extent of the societal risk, contributing to safer development and land use policies.

What role does GIS play in societal risk mapping?

GIS (Geographic Information Systems) tools are used to calculate and visualize societal risk by combining geographical data about population distribution with hazard scenarios. The data is processed to create maps that represent the level of societal risk in different areas, using color-coded grids to indicate varying risk levels.

How do societal risk maps differ from individual risk maps?

Societal risk maps go beyond individual risk maps by considering the broader impact on a population. While individual risk maps focus on a single person's risk of death, societal risk maps accumulate this data over an entire area, showing the potential for multiple fatalities and the total extent of the risk.

What are the guide values used in societal risk maps in the Netherlands?

In the Netherlands, guide values are used to assess whether a location exceeds acceptable societal risk thresholds. There are two main guide values: one for stationary installations and one for transport situations. If the societal risk exceeds these guide values, further analysis and mitigation measures, such as evacuation plans, are required.

How does the societal risk map help in decision-making for emergency planning?

Societal risk maps can be used to guide emergency response planning by identifying high-risk areas that may require evacuation plans, safety measures, or other interventions. They help prioritize areas for redevelopment or relocation to reduce risk to populations.

What challenges do spatial planners face when interpreting societal risk maps?

Spatial planners may struggle to fully comprehend the underlying risk data behind the color-coded maps, which are intended as a visualization tool rather than a strict criterion. While the maps highlight areas of concern, experts are still needed to explain the causes and implications of the risks and to make informed decisions based on the data.

Can societal risk maps be used for both existing and new developments?

Yes, societal risk maps are valuable for both existing and new developments. They can be used to assess the current risk levels in a given area, and they also help guide future development plans to ensure that new projects do not exacerbate existing risks.