Why Syria's civil war restarted

Summary

The video delves into the complexities of the Syrian Civil War, highlighting the pivotal roles of various actors like Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. It explores Assad's shifting alliances, from reliance on Russian and Iranian support to seeking normalization with Turkey. As rebel forces gain ground in Aleppo, the dynamics in Syria are evolving rapidly, with potential regional ripple effects. The video also touches on the strategic importance of cities like Hama and Homs and examines the intricate alliances and rivalries shaping Syria’s future. Overall, it offers a deep dive into the region's volatile geopolitics.

Takeaways

• 😀 Turkish-backed Syrian rebels have made significant advances in Syria, taking Aleppo and now moving toward central Syria, halfway between Aleppo and Damascus.
• 😀 Russian airstrikes continue to target rebel-held areas, while Russia conducts military drills in the Eastern Mediterranean, showcasing its naval capabilities with hypersonic and anti-ship missiles.
• 😀 Assad has been shifting alliances, seeking more support from Russia and Iran while attempting to regain control of Syria, especially by ousting Iranian forces.
• 😀 The 2023 Hamas attack led Israel to focus on weakening Iranian assets in Syria, which has contributed to instability and tensions in the region.
• 😀 Assad’s failed negotiations with Turkey centered on Syrian refugees and the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory, creating diplomatic tension.
• 😀 Israel is actively bombing Iranian and Hezbollah assets in Syria, with the aim of disrupting Iran’s influence in the region and maintaining its security perimeter.
• 😀 Iran's land bridge through Iraq and Syria is a key factor in its regional power projection, providing supplies and military support to Hezbollah in Lebanon and counterbalancing Sunni powers.
• 😀 Israel’s potential strategic interest in creating a corridor linking with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) could undermine Turkish relations, as the SDF is seen as a Kurdish separatist threat by Turkey.
• 😀 Turkey plays a significant role in the Syrian conflict, supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA) and moderating jihadist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), though HTS operates with considerable autonomy.
• 😀 Russia's involvement in Syria is more about global credibility than territorial control, and its support for Assad is crucial to maintaining its image as a regional and global power.
• 😀 The future of Syria depends heavily on the outcome of key battles for cities like Homs and Hama, with both Iran and Russia playing pivotal roles in supporting Assad's regime against advancing rebel forces.

Q & A

What was the significance of the rebel forces' capture of Aleppo in November 2023?

The rebel forces' capture of Aleppo in November 2023 marked a major shift in the Syrian Civil War, as it was the first time in years that rebel forces made significant territorial gains against Assad's regime. This was a surprising development, especially given Assad's consolidation of power over most of Syria in previous years with the help of Russian and Iranian support.

How has Russia's military focus shifted since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it became less involved in Syria, which had previously been a key area of focus. With resources diverted to Ukraine, Russia's military capacity in Syria diminished, which allowed Iran to step up its influence and support for Assad, marking a shift in the balance of power in the region.

Why has Assad been increasingly seeking to reduce Iran's influence in Syria?

Assad has been trying to reduce Iran's influence because while Iran helped him maintain power during the Syrian Civil War, Assad now views Iran as a hindrance to his complete control over Syria. As Iran's position weakened, particularly due to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian assets in Syria, Assad saw an opportunity to reassert his independence, even seeking support from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

What role does the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) play in the Syrian conflict?

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a Kurdish-majority militia that controls northeastern Syria. It has been a key ally of the United States in the fight against ISIS. However, it has a complex relationship with other regional powers, particularly Turkey, which considers the SDF's primary faction, the YPG, a terrorist organization due to its links to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party).

How has Israel been involved in the Syrian conflict, and what are its main concerns?

Israel's main concern in Syria is preventing Iranian influence and military presence near its border. Although Israel does not want to see Assad removed from power (as this could lead to a Sunni extremist vacuum), it actively targets Iranian and Hezbollah assets in Syria, seeking to weaken their presence and prevent any strategic encroachment near Israeli borders.

Why is the land bridge through Syria important to Iran?

The land bridge through Syria is crucial for Iran as it allows the transfer of supplies, weapons, and personnel to Hezbollah in Lebanon, strengthening Iran's military and political influence in the region. Without this land bridge, Iran would lose its ability to directly support its proxies in Lebanon and other parts of the region, severely weakening its strategic position.

What is the significance of the cities of Hama and Homs in the Syrian conflict?

Hama and Homs are two of the most strategic cities in Syria, located in the central part of the country. Their capture or loss is a critical factor in determining the outcome of the Syrian Civil War. Losing these cities would severely damage Assad’s war effort, as they are located in the heart of Syria’s population centers and military infrastructure.

How has Turkey's role evolved in the Syrian conflict, particularly with regard to its proxy forces?

Turkey has supported various rebel groups in northern Syria, particularly the Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), to counter Assad's forces and prevent Kurdish influence in Syria. However, Turkey's relationship with HTS has been complicated, as HTS has grown more independent and started pursuing its own agenda, occasionally clashing with Turkey’s interests.

What impact has Russian intervention in Syria had on the broader Middle East?

Russian intervention in Syria in 2015 was a significant turning point, boosting Russia’s credibility and influence in the Middle East. By supporting Assad, Russia reasserted itself as a key power broker, offering an alternative to U.S. influence in the region and gaining favor with countries like Iran and others in the Global South. However, its involvement is limited by its military commitments in Ukraine, which affects its ability to maintain a consistent presence in Syria.

What are the possible consequences if Assad loses control over Hama and Homs?

If Assad loses control over Hama and Homs, it would deal a severe blow to his ability to maintain power in Syria. These cities are vital to Syria’s infrastructure and population. Loss of these cities would likely tip the balance in favor of the rebels and further undermine Assad’s position, potentially leading to more instability in the region and increasing the influence of external powers like Iran and Russia to salvage the situation.