Why Interest Rates Won't Crash Any Time Soon... Revealed!
Summary
TLDR视频讨论了2024年利率展望的两个主要更新。首先,美国经济的近期疲软导致利率下降,这主要是由于美元走弱和美国就业增长低于预期。其次,美国国债的主要买家在市场上采取了相互矛盾的行动,包括美联储的资产负债表增加导致利率上升,而美国财政部的储蓄账户(TGA)的储蓄减少则有助于降低利率。尽管有关乌克兰战争和对俄罗斯、中国和伊朗的制裁可能导致外国持有者减少持有美国国债的传言,但外国持有者持有的美国国债总额实际上有所增加,表明其他国家已经填补了中国的空缺。视频预测,美国国债的利率将介于3.8%至5%之间波动,因为利率过高时外国持有者会购买国债,而利率过低时中央银行等自然卖家会主导市场,推高利率。
Takeaways
- 📉 利率对经济的各个方面有重要影响,包括消费者行为和投资回报。
- 📈 过去几年,利率经历了剧烈波动,从3.4%的低点上升到5%的高点。
- 💵 尽管人们可能不太关心国库券,但它们是整个经济借贷利率定价的基准。
- 🏠 美国30年固定利率抵押贷款利率通常比10年期美国国债利率高出几个百分点。
- 🔄 国债市场利率与实际经济之间存在反向关系,即实际经济也会影响国债市场的利率。
- 📉 最近几周,国债利率从4.7%下降到4.5%,这在利率变动中是一个相当大的变化。
- 🇺🇸 美国经济的近期疲软导致利率下降,这主要是因为美元走弱和就业增长低于预期。
- 📊 失业率的上升和职位空缺的减少表明美国经济的健康状况有所减弱。
- 🔍 经济疲软导致对国债市场的安全购买增加,从而压低了利率。
- 🏦 美联储的资产负债表增加对国债构成卖压,推高了利率。
- 💰 财政部的储蓄账户(TGA)通过增加储蓄再减少,对国债市场产生了买压,导致利率下降。
- 🌍 尽管有关乌克兰战争和对俄中伊制裁的传言,但外国持有者对美国国债的总持有量实际上增加了。
- 📊 中国减少了对美国国债的持有量,但其他国家增加了购买,抵消了这一影响。
- 🔄 利率预计会在3.8%到5%之间波动,高利率时外国买家会介入购买,低利率时则减少购买。
Q & A
利率是如何影响经济的?
-利率影响经济的方方面面,包括消费者行为、投资回报等。国债的利率是整个经济借贷成本的基准,影响着包括30年固定抵押贷款利率在内的整个经济。
近年来利率波动的幅度是怎样的?
-近年来,利率经历了剧烈波动,从最低的3.4%上升到高达5%。
为什么人们应该关心国债债券?
-尽管人们可能不关心国债债券,但他们应该关心,因为国债利率是整个经济借贷成本的基准,对经济有着直接的影响。
最近几周美国国债利率的变化是怎样的?
-最近几周,美国国债利率从4.7%下降到了4.5%,尽管听起来变化不大,但在利率方面这是一个相当大的变化。
国债利率和国债价格之间存在什么关系?
-国债利率和国债价格之间存在反向关系。当国债价格上升时,利率下降,反之亦然。
美国经济的哪些变化导致了利率的下降?
-美国经济的近期疲软导致了利率的下降,主要表现在美元的弱势以及美国国债作为安全资产的购买增加。
美国的就业情况如何影响国债市场?
-美国的就业增长低于预期,失业率上升,这表明经济的疲软,导致投资者出于安全考虑购买美国国债,从而推高了国债价格,降低了利率。
美国国债市场的外国持有者情况如何?
-尽管有关战争和制裁导致外国持有者减少的传言,但实际上外国持有者的总余额从7.2万亿美元增加到了8万亿美元。特别是中国,作为最大的债券持有国,其持有量从超过1万亿美元减少到了7750亿美元。
为什么美国中央银行的资产负债表对国债市场有影响?
-美国中央银行的资产负债表增加对国债市场构成了卖压,即推动利率上升,这可能会使利率保持在比应有水平更高的状态。
TGA(美国财政部账户)如何影响国债市场?
-TGA作为联邦政府的储蓄账户,其存款的增减会影响国债市场的买卖压力。当TGA减少其储蓄并将其投入经济时,会增加对国债的购买压力,从而导致利率下降。
未来美国国债利率的趋势是怎样的?
-预计美国国债利率将介于3.8%至5%之间。当利率过高时,外国购买者会介入购买国债,导致利率下降;而当利率过低时,外国买家会退出市场,其他卖家如中央银行会主导市场,使利率上升。
Outlines
📉 美国经济疲软导致利率下降
第一段主要讨论了利率对经济的影响,包括消费者行为和投资回报。近年来,利率经历了从3.4%到5%的剧烈波动。国债利率是整个经济借贷成本的基准,影响着诸如30年固定抵押贷款利率等。最近几周,国债利率从4.7%下降到4.5%,这一变化虽小,但在利率方面却相当显著。利率下降是由于国债价格上涨,人们愿意支付更高的价格购买国债,反映出对美国经济的担忧。美国经济的疲软主要基于两个事实:美元的弱势和美国国债的净卖出,以及美国就业增长低于预期,失业率上升,职位空缺减少。这些因素导致人们出于安全考虑购买国债,而不是因为对美国经济的信心。
🔄 利率市场的主要买家行为分析
第二段讨论了影响国债市场的三个主要因素。首先,美联储的资产负债表对国债施加了卖出压力,导致利率上升。其次,美国财政部的财政账户(TGA)作为政府的储蓄账户,其余额的增减会影响国债市场的买卖压力。近期,政府在TGA账户中积累了大量资金,然后逐渐将其投入经济,导致国债市场的买入压力增加,预计这会使利率下降。最后,尽管有关乌克兰战争和对俄中伊制裁导致外国持有者出售国债的传言,但实际上外国持有者对国债的总持有量从7.2万亿美元增加到了8万亿美元。特别是中国减持了国债,但其他外国买家接手了中国的份额,积极购买国债。综合这些因素,预计利率将在3.8%至5%之间波动,外国买家在利率过高时会介入购买,而在利率过低时则会退出,导致利率上升。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡利率
💡国债债券
💡美国经济
💡美元走强
💡就业数据
💡工作机会
💡外国持有者
💡TGA(财政部一般账户)
💡中央银行
💡利率倒挂
💡市场预期
Highlights
利率对经济的各个方面都有影响,从消费者行为到投资回报。
过去几年,利率经历了从3.4%到5%的剧烈波动。
尽管人们可能不关心国债券,但它们是整个经济借贷利率的基准。
美国30年固定抵押贷款利率通常比10年期国债利率高几个百分点。
国债市场的利率直接影响实体经济,但这种关系是双向的。
最近几周,美国国债利率从4.7%下降到4.5%。
利率下降是由于人们愿意为国债支付更高的价格,反映出对美国经济的担忧。
美国经济的近期疲软导致利率下降。
美元的贬值和外国货币资产的净销售表明美国相对于其他国家的经济弱势。
美国就业增长低于预期,失业率上升,显示就业市场和经济健康状况减弱。
美国财政部的TGA账户作为联邦政府的储蓄账户,其变动对国债市场有显著影响。
TGA账户的储蓄增加导致国债市场的净购买压力,可能会降低利率。
尽管有关乌克兰战争和对俄中伊制裁的传言,外国持有者并未大规模抛售美国国债。
中国减持了美国国债,但其他外国持有者增加了购买,总持有量增加。
预计美国国债利率将介于3.8%至5%之间波动。
当利率过高时,外国购买者会介入购买国债,降低利率;当利率过低时,外国购买者会减少购买,中央银行等卖家将主导市场,推高利率。
过去两年美国国债市场出现了横向交易的趋势。
订阅和点赞可以支持频道,YouTube会员计划每月仅需1美元。
Transcripts
interest rates govern everything in the
economy from consumer behavior all the
way through to Returns on investments in
today's video I'm going through two
major updates to the interest rate
outlook for 2024 throughout the last few
years we've seen some violent swings in
interest rates all the way from minimums
of
3.4% up to as high as 5% now everyday
people might not care at all about
treasury bonds but they absolutely
should cuz that is really The Benchmark
that prices borrowing rates throughout
the entire economy all you have to do is
look at this us 30-year fix rate
mortgage rate that's in the blue color
and you can see that's always a few
whole percentage points above whatever
the US 10year rate is so there we have
it the interest rates on the treasury
bond market directly govern what happens
to the real economy but that
relationship is by directional in other
words the real economy also has an
effect on the interest rates of the bond
market now I'm just going to highlight
here what's happened to the interest
rate on Treasury Bonds in the last few
weeks we've seen them drop from
4.7% down to
4.5% that might not sound like a massive
change however in terms of interest
rates that's actually quite a decent one
and to interpret what that means for the
US economy we need to keep in mind that
there is an inverse relationship between
the treasury bond interest rate and
their prices that recent drop in
interest rates is due to a increase in
the price people are willing to pay for
treasury bonds and now that we've got a
lay of the land of interest rates I want
to pose the first major update here in
this video and that is a recent weakness
in the US economy is leading to lower
interest rates the reason why I've made
this conclusion is mainly due to two
major facts and that is we've seen a
recent drop in the US dollar strength so
that means there's been a net selling of
us denominated assets for foreign
currency denominated assets people have
sold the US dollar for things like maybe
the Australian dollar or the Euro
usually that means there's relative
economic weakness in America versus
other places around the world so people
are not buying these treasury bonds
because they see the US government as
strong the US country as growing
stronger in the economy they're actually
buying US Treasury bonds for a safety
play and I've got some other data to
back this up on Friday last week we had
the recent jobs update for America and
we saw that job gains in the United
States came in at
175,000 jobs whereas the expected
forecast was
238,000 that's a Miss of
26.5% against expectations this directly
led to the unemployment rate in the
United States increasing to
3.9% whereas a few months ago we were
looking at unemployment of about 3.5%
and to finish off that data set we've
got the job openings number this chart
here is showing how many open jobs there
are in America currently sitting at a
about 8.4 million however in the last
really 18 months we've seen the job
openings numbers drop from about 11
million all the way down to this 8.4
million suggesting the jobs Market the
health of the economy has weakened over
that time so to summarize the first
major point in this video that economic
weakness is leading to a drop in
interest rates because there's safety
buying into the treasury bond market
however this shouldn't really be cheered
for the amount of economic weakness for
to see interest rate drops for example
in that us 30-year fixed rate mortgage
back to 3% that massive drop in interest
rates would have to have again a massive
amount of weakness in the economy it's
kind of like saying I want to lose my
nice full-paying job so I can get
unemployment benefits it just doesn't
make any sense to go through that pain
the second update I'm going to make in
this video is the major buyers of US
Treasury bonds the Wales in the market
are making conflicting moves first up
I've got the us Central bank's balance
sheet and this is overall adding selling
pressure to treasury bonds or in other
words driving interest rates higher and
that's going to keep interest rates
elevated above what they really should
be the second major influence on the
treasury bond market here is the TGA or
the treasury governance account and this
is really the savings account of the
federal government this is how they
spend their everyday money lately the
federal treasury has gotten into the
habit of saving up around 500 billion to
a trillion US dollar in this savings
account and then they over time Whittle
it down spend that savings money into
the economy and they repeat that cycle
at this rate about every 2 years in
other words what you see here is almost
a trillion us borrowed from investors
the US people foreign governments
they've borrowed an extra trillion US
dollar than what they really required in
the last 18 months and every dollar the
US government has to borrow is another
dollar worth of US Treasury bonds that
need to get sold off into the market in
other words we've just finished $1
trillion worth of selling pressure for
the US treasury bond market and
therefore the effect of the TGA is that
we're going to have net buying pressure
relative to the last 18 months in other
words interest rates should go lower and
lastly we have the balance of the
foreign ownership of Treasury bonds
there was a lot of rumors circulating
that the war in Ukraine the sanctions on
Russia China Iran were going to scare
off a lot of foreign holders of trosy
bonds and that would add a lot of
selling pressure to the market but
that's not actually happening we've seen
here the balance of the foreign holders
of bonds have increased from $7.2
trillion all the way up to 8 trillion us
at the last measurement but that story
of China selling US Treasury bonds
specifically has actually been true the
Total Bond ownership by China has fallen
from just over a trillion us Worth to
only 775 billion it's been about a 25%
drop in ownership so if the largest Bond
holder China has aggressively sold off
their Holdings and yet the total amount
has increased 800 billion that just
means all the other countries have
picked up China's slack and been
aggressively buying in the last 12
months and I'm going to put all of these
pieces together on this interest rate
chart the way I see it I believe we're
stuck between key interest rates of
about 3.8% all the way to its highs of
5% every time we see interest rates get
too high foreign owners will step in and
start to buy those treasury bonds
because they're very attractive 5%
returns in US dollars is extremely
healthy that buying pressure actually
drops the interest rate of those
treasury bonds and when we get too low
in interest rate those foreign buyers
step away again and those other natural
sellers in the market like the Central
Bank start to overpower the market and
send our interest rates higher and I
believe that's why we've been seeing
that sideways trading Market in treasury
bonds for the last really 2 years all
right guys I hope you enjoyed today's
video if you did then why not consider
subscribing liking the video to show
some support if you want to support
monetarily I've got the YouTube
membership program it's only priced at
$1 a month that's just a way to give
back to the channel that'd be fully
appreciated thanks for your time today
guys see you next time bye
استعرض المزيد من الفيديوهات ذات الصلة
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)