How the Current Crisis Will Change Retail Supply Chains Forever
Summary
TLDR霍华德·梅特纳,卡尔·马克思顾问公司的董事总经理,讨论了零售供应链如何应对即将到来的假日高峰。他指出,尽管存在短缺,但大型零售商通过提前进口商品和投资自己的船只和进口设施,已经做好了更充分的准备。梅特纳建议零售商专注于他们能控制的事情,比如提高销售量和利润率,而不是担心他们无法控制的供应链问题。他预测,这个假期季节将会不同,但对于那些使用人工智能和预测技术来优化库存的零售商来说,将是一个成功的增长期。此外,梅特纳强调,零售商需要重新思考他们的供应链管理策略,以应对未来可能出现的类似挑战。
Takeaways
- 📈 **零售供应链面临挑战**:当前零售供应链在应对假日高峰时将面临短缺问题,这是由于供应链问题已被广泛报道。
- 🛍️ **零售商的应对策略**:零售商应专注于他们能控制的事项,比如库存管理和价格策略,而不是他们无法控制的供应链问题。
- 🚢 **大型零售商的优势**:大型零售商由于拥有自己的运输工具和进口渠道,可能在供应链连续性方面表现更好。
- 📦 **库存和销售策略**:零售商可能需要通过提前进货和调整价格来应对库存短缺,同时利用人工智能和预测技术来优化库存管理。
- 🎉 **假日购物季的变化**:预计今年的假日购物季将有所不同,零售商和消费者都需要适应新的购物模式和可能的折扣变化。
- 📱 **消费者行为的调整**:消费者可能需要调整他们的期望,比如对于快速配送服务的期待,因为物流公司已经无法保证特定时间的配送。
- 🤖 **技术投资的重要性**:投资于技术和物流管理是零售商应对当前挑战和未来不确定性的关键。
- 🌐 **供应链管理的重新思考**:零售商需要重新思考他们的供应链管理,可能包括国内采购的替代方案和更分散的采购来源。
- ⏰ **快速适应的必要性**:零售商需要快速适应市场变化,就像疫情初期那样迅速转向线上销售和路边取货等新模式。
- 💰 **资金和资本的重要性**:为了实现必要的改变,零售商可能需要更多的营运资本,这可能会对一些企业构成挑战。
- 📈 **长期趋势的适应**:零售商需要适应长期趋势,包括更高的薪资水平和对在线购物及配送服务的不断增长的需求。
Q & A
当前零售供应链面临节假日高峰的挑战是什么?
-当前零售供应链面临的挑战包括产品短缺、库存耗尽、供应链中断以及消费者对可能的短缺产生的恐慌性购买行为。
霍华德·梅特纳建议零售商如何准备应对节假日高峰?
-霍华德·梅特纳建议零售商专注于他们能控制的事情,比如提前进货、调整价格策略、使用人工智能和预测技术来优化库存管理。
为什么大型零售商在供应链连续性方面可能会做得更好?
-大型零售商通常拥有更多的资源和投资,比如自己的船只和进口设施,这使得他们在供应链管理上更有优势。此外,他们更有可能及时支付供应商,从而获得优先供应。
消费者在即将到来的假日购物季中可能需要调整哪些期望?
-消费者可能需要调整对快速配送的期望,因为USPS、UPS和FedEx不再保证特定时间的配送,且美国邮政服务已经延长了配送时间。此外,可能不会有以往那么大的折扣。
零售商如何鼓励消费者提前购物?
-零售商通过提前发布购物信息、宣传假日季的提前开始以及强调供应链可能的中断,来鼓励消费者提前购物。
霍华德·梅特纳认为当前的供应链挑战是否是一次性的?
-他认为这不仅仅是一次性的挑战,零售商需要重新思考他们的供应链管理策略,以应对长期的挑战和变化。
在供应链管理中,哪个职位变得日益重要?
-首席物流官或供应链管理专家变得越来越重要,因为他们能够帮助零售商更好地管理供应链,克服物流挑战。
为什么零售商可能需要重新考虑他们的采购策略?
-由于海外采购的前置时间、成本和潜在的供应链中断,一些零售商可能会发现国内采购或使用替代采购策略在经济上更有意义。
霍华德·梅特纳如何看待零售业的未来?
-他认为零售业的未来将由那些能够适应不断变化和持续中断的公司所主导,这些公司将采用新技术和策略来优化他们的运营。
零售商如何利用人工智能和预测技术来提高销售?
-零售商可以使用人工智能和预测技术来更好地预测消费者需求,优化库存水平,提高销售转化率,并在更高的利润率下实现销售。
为什么说当前的供应链挑战可能会加速零售业的创新和变革?
-由于当前的挑战迫使零售商快速适应和创新,比如通过实施新技术和改变采购策略,这些变革可能会比预期的五到十年更快地实现。
Outlines
📈 零售供应链如何应对节日高峰
霍华德·梅特纳,卡尔·马克思顾问公司的董事总经理,讨论了零售供应链在当前情况下如何应对即将到来的节日高峰。他指出,尽管存在短缺,但零售商应专注于他们能控制的事项,比如库存管理和价格策略。他提到,大型零售商通过提前进口货物和投资自己的船只来应对供应链问题,而小型和中型企业可能面临更多挑战。霍华德建议零售商利用人工智能和预测技术来提高销售量和利润率,同时吸收成本增长。他还提到,消费者可能需要调整对快速配送的期望,因为USPS、UPS和FedEx不再保证特定时间的配送。
🛍️ 消费者购物行为的变化与零售商的策略调整
霍华德·梅特纳继续讨论了消费者购物行为的变化,以及零售商如何通过提前发布购物信息和鼓励消费者提前购物来适应这些变化。他预测,购物季将变得更长,但不那么紧张,总体上将是成功的。霍华德还强调,当前的供应链挑战不是一个一次性事件,零售商需要重新思考他们的供应链管理策略,比如采用更多的国内采购和机器人技术。他认为,那些能够适应变化和持续中断的公司将是赢家。
🚀 亚马逊的应对策略与零售业的未来
霍华德·梅特纳赞扬了亚马逊在应对供应链问题上的积极态度,举例说明了亚马逊如何通过让第三方小型合作伙伴进行配送来解决短期问题,同时也考虑长期战略。他强调,零售业需要快速适应市场变化,投资于新技术,并寻找替代传统的人力资源配置方法。霍华德认为,尽管一些长期策略可能需要数年时间来实施,但鉴于当前的快速变化,公司需要加快步伐,以避免落后于市场。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡零售供应链
💡假日高峰
💡库存短缺
💡控制因素
💡早期备货
💡大宗零售商
💡消费者预期
💡供应链管理
💡技术投资
💡长期战略
💡灵活应变
Highlights
零售供应链在假期高峰期间将面临短缺问题,这已被广泛记录。
零售商需要专注于他们能控制的事情,而不是他们不能控制的。
零售商应该关注自己的库存,而不是市场上的库存短缺。
消费者因为供应链问题而开始恐慌性购买,这被称为“卫生纸综合症”。
大型零售商通过提前运输假日商品和投资自己的船只和进口业务,可能已经准备好了库存。
小型和中型企业在供应链中的位置较低,可能会面临更多挑战。
零售商有机会通过更高的销售量和利润率来吸收成本增加。
预计这个假期季节将不同寻常,但库存足以支持增长。
使用人工智能和预测技术可以帮助零售商更好地应对当前情况。
消费者可能需要调整他们对快速配送的期望,因为USPS、UPS和FedEx不再保证特定时间。
零售商鼓励消费者提前购物,以避免假期高峰期间的物流问题。
今年的供应链挑战可能是一个长期问题,需要零售商重新思考他们的供应链管理。
物流管理将成为零售业的关键角色,因为供应链的稳定性变得至关重要。
零售商可能需要考虑国内替代采购,以减少海外采购的潜在风险。
零售商需要适应更高的工资水平,并寻找减少过剩人员的新方法。
预计“大辞职”后,人们将重新回到劳动力市场,但他们可能不会回归旧的工作。
成功的零售商将是那些能够快速适应和调整,同时假设持续的干扰和变化的公司。
亚马逊通过其主动性,即使在面临自己的分销问题时,也在寻找克服短期问题的创新方法。
零售商需要快速适应,因为市场周期不再以三年为一个周期,而是更快。
公司需要投资于技术和供应链的创新,以应对快速变化的市场。
Transcripts
[Music]
how will retail supply chains weather
the holiday peak
my guest is howard meitner managing
director with karl marx advisors hello
howard
hello
good day thank you for being with me
today so based on how you assess the way
it looks now
uh what is the current situation with
regard to the ability of the retail
supply chain do you think to meet the
holiday peak which is just now beginning
actually
well there's no doubt there's going to
be shortages and they've they've been
very well documented by you and many
others
um
so i think there are actions in place
and i think the
retailers need to think about what they
can control
rather than the things they can't
control so
to me
i would
encourage them to focus on what they own
and not what they don't have
um
it will
if they have depleted inventory why
discount the price
um they are going to see a longer season
you know amazon and others are already
reporting
record sales
at this time because i think consumers
are becoming very aware
because there's been a lot of supply
chain
um
headlines
and it's sort of created what i call the
toilet roll syndrome
if you tell everyone there's going to be
a shortage of toilet rolls they all go
out and buy them
buying creates the need for panic buying
so there's been this rhetoric creates a
potential overreaction and i think we
will see that
and particularly in areas like toys and
electronics where there's been
a lot of headlines on those
now you say what they own and my
understanding is that a lot of retailers
brought in product early anticipating
this situation earlier in the year they
started their holiday shipments a little
bit early maybe got ahead of it maybe
had gave them some kind of product to
what extent is that stuff available now
in their hands and ready to be put on
the shelves if not already on the
shelves
well the larger companies
you know it's been well documented have
invested in their own uh ships and their
own importation it's much more difficult
for the smaller medium sized companies
because you know they have um
they are down the pecking order also
companies that are paying on time
are naturally going to get a priority
where the vendors are concerned so what
i think we're going to see is the big
box retailers
um are going to do better in terms of
continuity of supply
but remember you know everyone
thinks about this as if it's a potential
disaster the amount of unsold goods
usually
at the end of a season um are
extraordinarily high so here is an
opportunity for
retailers to do higher sell-throughs at
higher margins because they would be uh
uh i'll advise to
um absorb these cost increases that um
are occurring with shipping and in some
of the raw material costs
so i think we're going to see a
different christmas but everyone is
thinking about 19
as a growth and the inventory is there
to do it not for every retailer but
those that employ
um artificial intelligence to
help them with their predictive
technologies
etc as you say
they were on this early
no one expected the economy to recover
as quickly as it did post covet
so
i think people need to avoid beating
themselves up for what is an
unprecedented situation
and really as i say
the advice i'm giving people focus on
what you own focus on what you can
control
and don't have sleepless nights
about things that you can't correct at
this point yeah just to do do the best
they can from the consumer standpoint
however we've written so many stories in
the last several years about how spoiled
consumers have become about getting
their orders so quickly within two days
or one day or even a matter of hours
will they have to temper their
expectations this this holiday season or
will they simply
not expect to have to do that and then
have that
reverberate onto the image of the
retailers who simply can't serve those
needs
well already usps ups and fedex are not
guaranteeing
any specific times
so that's new i think um
the uh u.s postal service has lengthened
its um
um
um
delivery times
um so there is a lot of
um
information out there which i think will
modify people's expectations and that's
one of the reasons i think we're seeing
people buy early yeah
but they've got the message they aren't
going to get this they aren't going to
get the same discounts they've
traditionally
yeah well a lot of retailers are putting
out that message quite early on to shop
early and i'm assuming it sounds like
consumers heard that message or they
themselves read the same stories that
the retailers read and said we'd better
get our stuff soon so in a way
and it's so much more profitable for the
retailers you know when you try to cram
everything into
four weeks five weeks and you have this
out of date thing called black friday
which is no longer what it used to be
people were shopping beforehand and
promoting beforehand
so i think um the season's going to be
longer it's going to be less intense but
overall
very successful yeah to what extent is
this an unprecedented and perhaps
unrepeatable situation this year
versus something that might ever be in
evidence on a permanent basis
longer peak holiday peak shopping
seasons more diversified sourcing more
congestion in the future just because of
consumer demand do you think that this
state of affairs will continue
i think if anyone believes this is a
one-off
um you know they need to rethink their
strategy
in the same way that the disruption
caused by covid and how that influenced
uh people's investments in technology
and online um
this will have the same profound effect
on people totally rethinking their
supply chain management you know we
always used to talk in retail didn't we
about the chief operating officer or the
head merchant
the the key person now is going to be
that chief logistics
guru the person who can manage supply
chain because
it's become paramount for retailers to
overcome that so
robotics in um warehousing um more
perhaps alternative domestic sourcing
because when you add up the lead times
and the costs and the potential
disruption of overseas sourcing
there may well be some algorithms and
some profit models that would suggest to
certain types of retailers that um a
complete rethink of their sourcing uh
makes more sense so
if they don't rethink it they're in big
trouble in the same way if people think
that life will go back to pre-covert it
won't
a good example is look how it has
changed
the restaurant business in terms of the
importance of delivery
and if people think salaries are going
to go back down think again so
retailers restaurants everyone is going
to have to live with a higher salaried
individual and look to alternatives
to having
excess staffing
as was the model before and everyone's
talking about the great resignation
i think they ought to start thinking
about the great rehiring because these
people are going to want to have jobs at
some point they're going to come back
into the workforce you believe they're
not going to come back for the old jobs
at the old page so again
um i think bob what what we can expect
is the the winners here will be those
that take note
pivot
and adjust and assume
uh ongoing disruption and change but
many of the things that you're
suggesting here are long-term plays i
mean you don't change sourcing overnight
you don't acquire and implement and and
become accustomed to new technology
overnight so that we're talking about uh
something that could take several years
to resolve are we not
well we thought that didn't we when um
all the stores and restaurants closed
look how quickly look how quickly people
pivoted in terms of
curbside pickups online uh growth it was
extraordinary so i think what we're
going to do see is the same thing there
were there were sleepers out there
companies
that thought it was just going to carry
on the way it is i think we're going to
see a lot of investment going in there i
think companies are going to get in to
trouble because they're going to need
working capital to make these changes
so
um but uh they're going to have to work
faster that life doesn't go in
three-year cycles anymore
yeah much much faster than that well
yeah and a lot of the innovations that
the companies thought they were going to
take about five to ten years to
implement suddenly got done in two so
that's a very interesting perception
that's something what amazon do i i'm a
great admirer of amazon's
um proactiveness
so they're having problems
with um some of their own distribution
so now that with their third-party
smaller
um
partners um they're letting them
do the the delivery you know where
customers instead of having it delivered
by amazon can go in their partner stores
so they're constantly thinking of
ways of overcoming short term problems
but also thinking about long-term
strategy yeah
many others
well
howard mightner of karl marx advisors
thank you for your wisdom and letting us
know that what we're experiencing now is
something we're going to be with for a
very long time i really appreciate your
insights into the state of the
holiday season and going forward in the
retail world thank you very much for
being with me really appreciate it my
pleasure
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