Myanmar’s Civil War Has Entered the Endgame. Here’s What You Need to Know.

Summary

In the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, the military dictatorship led by General Min Aang faces a formidable challenge from the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) and various other resistance groups. As of August 2024, the 3BHA has made significant territorial gains, pushing the regime to the brink. The conflict, complex and multifaceted, may soon reach a critical endgame, with the potential for intervention by powerful neighbors, internal collapse of the regime, or a popular uprising in the cities. The outcome could lead to a unified Myanmar under the National Unity Government or a fragmented landscape of autonomous regions.

Takeaways

• 🏢 The military dictatorship led by General Min Aang has been committing atrocities and faces significant opposition from a rebel alliance.
• 🔥 The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), a coalition of rebel forces, has been gaining ground and poses a serious threat to the dictatorship.
• 🗓️ As of late August 2024, the conflict is reaching a critical phase with the rebels moving toward a decisive showdown with the military junta.
• 🌐 The conflict is complex, involving multiple ethnic militias and resistance groups, each with their own agendas and motivations.
• 🏔️ The military junta's forces are demoralized and often prefer to retreat or surrender rather than engage in combat with the rebels.
• 🚜 The rebels have been successful in capturing territory and military outposts by leveraging the junta's tendency to withdraw from difficult battles.
• 🏙️ Major cities and core military bases remain the junta's strongholds, presenting a significant challenge for the rebels to overcome.
• 🇨🇳 China's role is pivotal, as it has been supplying arms to both sides of the conflict but has recently shown favor towards the 3BHA.
• 🏛️ The National Unity Government, a government-in-exile, represents a potential future government for Myanmar if the conflict resolves.
• ⚖️ The outcome of the conflict could lead to either a unified Myanmar under the National Unity Government or a fractured state with various militias controlling different regions.

Q & A

What is the current situation in Marar's civil war as of August 2024?

As of August 2024, the rebels are moving toward their endgame, with the military dictatorship on the run and the resistance forces gaining control over much of the country.

Who is General Ming Onang and what is his role in the conflict?

General Ming Onang is the leader of the military dictatorship in Marar, who has vowed gruesome retribution against those who oppose him.

What is the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) and its significance in the conflict?

The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) is a tripartite rebel Army consisting of the Iraan Army, the Marar National Democratic Alliance army (MNDA), and the Tang National Liberation Army. It has played a pivotal role in turning the tide of the war against the military dictatorship.

What was the date of Operation 1027 and what was its objective?

Operation 1027 was launched on the 27th of October 2023, with the objective of assaulting the military dictatorship and continuing the fight to this day.

How does the military dictatorship maintain control over the country?

The military dictatorship maintains control through the use of force, relying on the National military known as the Tapman door, and by asserting control in cities and rural areas with military bases, outposts, and checkpoints.

What are the different categories of resistance groups mentioned in the script?

The resistance groups are categorized into the military dictatorship (the Hunter), the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), and 'the others' which include various militias and armies fighting for their own aims but fundamentally against the Hunter.

What is the current strategy of the resistance groups in their fight against the military dictatorship?

The resistance groups are employing a strategy of encircling and applying pressure on the military dictatorship from all angles, capturing territory, and avoiding direct confrontations where possible.

What are the challenges the resistance faces in taking control of the major cities and military bases?

The resistance faces challenges such as the military dictatorship's better equipment, the concentration of Hunter troops in defensible points, and the need to introduce new elements of warfare that have been largely absent in the countryside.

What is the role of China in the ongoing conflict in Marar?

China has been playing both sides of the conflict, supplying weapons to various militias including those opposing the military dictatorship, while also providing military equipment to the Hunter. However, it has recently been leaning more towards establishing relations with the resistance groups.

What are the potential outcomes for the conflict as discussed in the script?

The potential outcomes include direct intervention by a powerful neighbor like China, a popular revolt within the cities, or a prolonged siege that leads to the collapse of the military dictatorship.

What is the National Unity Government and its significance in post-war Marar?

The National Unity Government is a well-liked organization in Marar that has a plan for governance and international recognition. It is seen as a potential unifying force after the war, but there is no guarantee that all resistance groups will support it.

Outlines

00:00

🔥 Civil War in Marar

The script opens with a description of a brutal civil war in Marar, where a military dictatorship led by General Ming Onang is clashing with a rebel alliance known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The conflict has intensified, with the rebels gaining significant ground and the military dictatorship's control weakening. The video aims to explore the conflict's current state, the rebels' victories, and the challenges they face as they approach a potential endgame.

05:01

🏹 Complexities of the Marar Conflict

The script acknowledges the complexity of the Marar conflict, noting that it's not a simple case of good versus evil. It refrains from delving into the history of the conflict or the various resistance groups, focusing instead on the current state of the war. The military dictatorship, known as the Hunter, maintains control through force and support from ethnic militias, while the Three Brotherhood Alliance has managed to consolidate power and challenge the Hunter's rule.

10:01

🌐 The Spreading Influence of the Resistance

The script discusses the various militias and armies fighting against the Hunter, including those that have been in opposition for decades and others that have recently joined the fight. These groups are organized along ethnic or geographic lines and are part of the National Unity Government, a government in exile that coordinates with other nations. The resistance has been successful in capturing territory and establishing local governance, but the script notes that the Hunter's control over major cities and military bases remains a significant challenge.

15:01

🛡️ The Hunter's Strongholds and the Rebel's Strategy

The script outlines the challenges the rebels face in taking control of the cities and military bases held by the Hunter. It suggests that the Hunter's troops are consolidating in defensible positions, making it difficult for the rebels to make further advances. The script also considers the possibility of external intervention, particularly from China, which has been supplying weapons to both sides of the conflict but may be shifting its support towards the resistance.

20:03

🏙️ The Potential for Urban Uprisings

The script discusses the potential for popular revolts in the cities controlled by the Hunter. It suggests that the resistance is already working to establish a presence within these cities and may be able to inspire the urban population to rise up against the Hunter. The script also considers the possibility of a siege, where the rebels encircle the Hunter's strongholds and wait for supplies to run out, potentially leading to a collapse from within.

25:04

🌟 The Future of Marar

The script concludes by considering the future of Marar, highlighting the uncertainty of the conflict's outcome. It discusses the role of the National Unity Government and the potential for a unified resistance, but also the risk of fragmentation into autonomous regions controlled by different militias. The script notes that the end of the civil war could lead to a range of outcomes, from a unified Marar under a new government to a fractured nation with multiple power centers.

Keywords

💡Civil War

A civil war is a conflict between organized groups within the same nation, typically fighting for control of the government or for independence. In the video, the civil war in Marar represents the central theme, as it details the struggle between the military dictatorship and the rebel alliance. The video script describes the ongoing conflict and its implications for the nation's future.

💡Military Dictatorship

A military dictatorship is a form of government where the country is controlled by military leaders who have seized power, often through a coup. In the context of the video, the military dictatorship in Marar is led by General Ming Onang and is characterized by the use of force and the suppression of dissent, as they commit 'countless atrocities against the people.'

💡Rebel Alliance

A rebel alliance refers to a group of individuals or organizations that unite to oppose an established authority or government. In the video, the rebel alliance in Marar is depicted as a collection of resistance armies and ordinary people fighting against the military dictatorship, with the 'Three Brotherhood Alliance' being a significant part of this force.

💡Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA)

The Three Brotherhood Alliance is a specific faction within the larger rebel alliance in Marar, consisting of three founding member groups: the Iraan Army, the Marar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDA), and the Tang National Liberation Army. The video script highlights their role in unifying various resistance efforts and their strategic operations against the military dictatorship.

💡Insurgent Militias

Insurgent militias are armed groups that rise in rebellion against an established government or military force. The video discusses how these militias, often organized along ethnic or geographic lines, form a significant part of the resistance against the military dictatorship in Marar, contributing to the complexity of the conflict.

💡Asymmetric Warfare

Asymmetric warfare is a conflict where the opposing sides have significantly different military capabilities, often with the weaker side using unconventional tactics to counter the stronger force. The video mentions that the various resistance groups in Marar are 'long accustomed to asymmetric Warfare,' operating in the jungles and hills, which gives them an advantage against the better-equipped military forces.

💡National Unity Government

The National Unity Government is a term used to describe a provisional or transitional government that aims to represent a united front in a nation experiencing conflict or division. In the video, the National Unity Government is portrayed as a government in exile, representing various resistance groups and working towards a unified Myanmar after the conflict.

💡Ethnic Militias

Ethnic militias are armed groups that are formed along ethnic lines and often fight for the interests or rights of their ethnic community. The video script refers to various ethnic militias that support the military dictatorship in Marar, highlighting the complex and multifaceted nature of the civil war.

💡Operation 1027

Operation 1027 is a specific military operation launched by the 3BHA against the military dictatorship in Marar. The video script describes this operation as a 'massive assault' that marks a turning point in the conflict, demonstrating the rebels' ability to challenge the military dictatorship's control.

💡Popular Revolt

A popular revolt is a mass uprising or rebellion by the general population against an authority or government. In the video, the concept of a popular revolt is discussed as a potential strategy for the rebels to gain control over the cities and force the military dictatorship into a defensive position, highlighting the power of collective civilian action in the conflict.

Highlights

A brutal civil war is raging in Marar, with a military dictatorship led by General Ming on one side and a rebel alliance known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance on the other.

General Ming's regime is notorious for atrocities and relies on the world's ignorance to commit abuses with impunity.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of resistance armies, has made significant territorial gains, challenging the dictatorship.

The military dictatorship faces a complex resistance, including hundreds of militias organized along ethnic or geographic lines.

The military dictatorship's control is slipping, with the rebels moving toward a final showdown.

The conflict is deeply complex, with every organization involved having its own story, reasons, and share of controversies.

The military dictatorship rules by force, maintaining control through a vast network of military bases and checkpoints.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance has been able to consolidate power and train troops, preparing for a major offensive.

Operation 1027 marked the beginning of a large-scale assault by the Three Brotherhood Alliance against the military dictatorship.

The resistance has been successful in capturing border checkpoints and establishing local governance in controlled territories.

The military dictatorship's troops often prefer retreat or surrender, leading to a consistent rhythm of rebel victories.

The resistance is now facing the challenge of taking over major cities and military bases, which introduces new levels of difficulty.

The military dictatorship's power base is concentrated in three key cities, making them the last stand for the regime.

The resistance's success has been impressive, but the real challenge lies ahead in the cities and major military bases.

China's role in the conflict has been nuanced, balancing support for both the military dictatorship and the resistance.

The potential for a popular revolt in the cities, inspired by the resistance, could be a game-changer in the conflict.

The National Unity Government, a well-liked organization, is waiting in exile to lead post-war Myanmar.

The future of Marar is uncertain, with the potential for a unified resistance or a patchwork of autonomous regions.

Transcripts

deep in the jungles of marar a brutal

Civil War is Raging on the one side is a

military dictatorship a cabal of

generals that took control of their

Nation years ago and have carried out

countless atrocities against the people

they swore to safeguard their leader

General Ming an clang vows gruesome

retribution against those who dare to

oppose him and relies on the world's

ignorance of his Nations as rule as he

pleases on the other side is nothing

short of a rebel alliance a collection

of resistance armies insurgent militias

and ordinary people taking up arms in

defense of their families and

communities the tip of their spear a

tripartite rebel Army known as the three

Brotherhood Alliance has taken much of

the country by storm turning what was

once a patchwork of fruitless local

insurgencies into a force that could

very well topple its Enemy at the time

of writing it's the waning days of

August 2024 and the rebels are moving

toward their endgame with the military

Hunter defeated in the countryside and

Running Scared from the sorts of major

bases that a year ago it seemed

impossible that the rebels would ever

capture Ming onang and his dictatorship

are running out of places to hide and

the table is now set for what will be a

final showdown in the coming months so

in this special episode today we're

going to prepare for that Showdown and

explore both the stunning victories and

the lasting obstacles of a resistance

that can sense just how close it is to

taking its country

[Music]

back at the outset of this special

episode today we've got to make one

thing clear although the rebels of

myamar are fighting against a brutal

military dictatorship this is not so

clear-cut good guy against clear-cut bad

guy for the sake of time we're not going

to be launching into the long history of

the conflict today or the generations

old insurgencies that proceeded it and

we won't be doing an in-depth

exploration of either the ruling

military hunter or the country's various

resistance groups beyond what is needed

to understand the conflict's current

state if you'd like a longer Deep dive

into the myar conflict please do let us

know in the comments and we would be

glad to oblige if the interest is there

but for now we just ask that you take us

at our word when we say that this is a

deeply complex Civil War in a deeply

complex Nation every organization

involved has its own story has its own

reasons for believing and acting as it

does and as its fair share of skeletons

in the closet that includes the ruling

Hunter but it also includes the rebels

despite what many around the world see

quite fairly as the nobility of their

higher cause marar Civil War is being

fought between the ruling Hunter and

quite literally hundreds of militias

most of whom are organized along ethnic

or Geographic lines but for the sake of

Simplicity we're going to sort them into

three core categories today the hunter

the three Brotherhood Alliance and the

others the military Hunter ruling Mahar

is as we said before organized under the

command of General Min Aang they came to

a power in 2021 after a cudar that

overthrew the nation's indirectly

elected State Chancellor the Nobel

laurate and fellow complicated

individual angang sui based in the

capital city of nador in the heart of

myar B Hunter Rules by force relying on

the National military known as the

tapman door to assert control in the

cities and in the countryside they also

draw support from various ethnic

militias that rally to the Hunter's

cause the tandor is organized at least

in its own Ideal World in a staggered

structure it maintains major military

bases and complete control over the

biggest cities it's Regional commands in

each area of the country it keeps the

countryside dotted with a range of

smaller military bases in and around

towns and in the rural areas it stations

troops at countless outposts and

checkpoints between the Hunter's

everpresent troops all across the nation

and their long running use of

indiscriminate Air Raids and shelling

against civilian populations who are

perceived to be dissident they've been

able to keep control over their Nation

until recently then there are the

members of the three Brotherhood

Alliance who we'll be referring to as

the 3 BHA for the remainder of the

episode the three and the 3 BHA refers

to the trio of founding members within

the alliance the iraan Army the marar

national Democratic Alliance army or

mnda and the Tang National Liberation

Army whom to spare you and acronym we'll

just refer to as the Tang from here on

forward the three groups got together in

2019 when all three were waging separate

battles against the tapman door well

before their coup took over the country

although the three were at that time

getting a bit worse than they were

giving from the tapman door they were

able to coordinate their attacks and

stabilize the regions where they were

fighting after they banded together

after the coupe they didn't declare war

on the hunter right away instead

consolidating their territory and

training thousands of troops while

making inroads with other resistance

groups especially in the cities during

that time they stood by and watched

while the hunter spread itself thin

while fighting various ethnic militias

from other parts of marar until they

seized their moment to strike on the

27th of October 2023 the 3 BHA launched

operation 1027 a massive assault on the

hunter that continues to this day

finally there are the others the many

militias and armies fighting for their

own aims but fundamentally in opposition

to the hunter some of them have been

fighting the hunter for decades While

others recently started some are so

small as to comprise only a few dozen

Fighters While others can field an Army

in the tens of thousands like the rest

of their Nation they are long accustomed

to asymmetric Warfare operating in the

jungles and the hills where the hunters

have the equipment can't reach among the

most prominent are the Karan National

Liberation Army the kin Independence

Army the chin Brotherhood Alliance the

Poo National Liberation Army and more

representing most of them along with the

3 BHA the national Unity government a

government in Exile that lives and works

in hiding inside Myanmar and tors both

Internal Affairs between the militias

and foreign relations with the

governments of other nations eager to

support an alternative to the ruling

Hunter although none of these other

groups were formerly a part of operation

10 27 many of them have seized on the

moment or have taken their cues to open

new offensives of their own rallying

alongside the 3 BHA to put pressure on

the hunter from all angles since the

start of operation 1027 the relative

Unity between the major members of the

resistance has led to a Cascade of

defeats for the hunter viewers of our

ongoing weekly series The Situation Room

make sure you're subscribed will already

know the pattern that we're about to

describe but for those who are

unfamiliar the Civil War has settled

into a consistent Rhythm to understand

it though we need to understand a couple

of things about the tat Mador loyal to

the Hunter and specifically their troops

most of those troops are somewhat

lacking in training many are lacking in

fighting discipline or experience and by

and large they typically prefer to live

to tomorrow instead of dying for their

country today what that has meant but

this current phase of the conflict is

that the Hunter's troops are generally

open to the idea of retreat or even

surrender and when they have a good

understanding of the idea that whatever

Target they're supposed to defend is

probably going to fall one way or the

other then they're usually pretty happy

to leave town rather than see the fight

play itself out this Grand Rhythm then

goes something like this Hunter troops

in a certain part of the country

scattered around between innumerable

small harded defend outposts hear rumors

that the rebel Army in their area has

been blazing through outposts without

much trouble so when they hear word that

the rebels are coming they pick up their

stuff pile into the customary Toyotas

and Jeeps that you'd expect to find in

any nation's Countryside during a Civil

War and get the hell out before the

rebels show up then once that process

repeats itself enough times that most of

the outposts are vacated the rebels will

show that they can consistently take the

next biggest target let's say the small

base is outside to many of mma's towns

next time the rebels come calling the

troops on whichever base is in their

crosshairs are probably going to pick up

get into the Toyotas and jeeps and get

the hell out the same process repeats at

the next highest level the local major

bases and then at the level of regional

command centers and eventually the

hardest targets of all the cities and

the core military bases right now the

rebels Are Climbing that ladder

consistently able to take over the

biggest local bases and demonstrating

that they can bring down the regional

command centers the hunter has taken

major losses including major numbers of

fatalities for its troops but often the

tador will withdraw rather than fight

even when they're leaving behind weapons

heavy fighting equipment supplies and

resistance prisoners or as happened many

times they'll surrender on mass in the

hundreds including even the generals

unlucky enough to get posted to Regional

defense morale among Hunter troops in

the countryside is at an all-time low

resistance expertise in rooting them out

and forcing them to retreat is at an

alltime High the rebels have captured

border checkpoints they've established

arrangements with neighbor Nations and

they've set up local government

infrastructure in the territory they

control meanwhile the hunter despite

their better equipment simply lacks the

means all the world carry out counter

offensive they're being pushed back

continually squeezed into a smaller and

smaller corner until hopefully from the

rebels perspective the pressure becomes

too much to bear as of now the colorful

map of control in Myanmar is something

that the New York Times described best

this past April quoting them a

kaleidoscopic array of competing

influences thiefs Democratic Havens and

drug lord hideouts the under controls a

decent portion of the country including

a critical stretch of land joining the

three largest cities Yangon Mandalay and

napor but according to one July article

in The Economist that accounts for just

14% of mahar's territory and just

onethird of its population in areas that

are under Hunter control the rest is

overtaken the Karan National Liberation

Army and the keni control much of the

border with China the iraan Army a

member of the 3 BHA controls the entire

border with Bangladesh the chin and the

people's Defense Force control much of

the border with India oh while the

kachin the tang and the mdaa and the

autonomous region of w state which quite

frankly is its own weird little thing

that we'll be absolutely discussing some

other time all split the border with Mar

Mar's critical nextdoor neighbor China

Thun controls some territory in the

north some near the border with Lao and

some on mma's Long Southward stretch of

Coastline but each of those patches of

territory are soon to be cut off

encircled and either kept isolated or

taken out right in fact some of them

might already have fallen to the rebels

by the time you see this video if the

hunter is going to hold out anywhere

it's in those three key cities that we

mentioned before supported by the mess

of military installations that dot the

landscape in that area this is the

Hunter's power base and right now it's a

hard shelled nut that the resistance is

trying to figure out how

crack it's never not a good time to

emphasize just how impressive Mar Mar's

Rebels have already been they've taken

incredible amounts of territory they've

largely proved able to run a somewhat

coordinated Insurgency without killing

each other and they're gaining in power

every single day but with respect to the

stunning showing the rebels have put on

so far and with respect to the

Staggering number of lives that already

been lost the truth Remains What The

Rebel Alliance just did is the easy part

making the cities along with the

Hunter's major military bases is a

prospect that introduces a whole new

level of challenge part of the problem

is just simple maths after all many

Hunter troops have been retreating from

so many outposts and bases then from so

many directions and they're all just

streaming into Consolidated defensible

points where holding out is going to be

a lot easier the regime has a proper

nation's worth of military equipment

there and for the rebels to attack these

strongholds would be to introduce a new

element that's been largely absent if

the rebels do surround the Hunter's base

of power then they'll have succeeded in

putting the tapad door between a rock

and a hard place but as the tapad door

becomes less slippery it has become

considerably more Resolute the same

troops that weren't willing to defend

provincial Outpost

the tamador tanks and armored fighting

Vehicles it's strafing ground attack

aircraft and it's rare but talented elak

shot troops don't make much difference

or when they're sent into the

countryside in small numbers but they

work a hell of a lot better if a 100

tanks a dozen fighter jets and a

battalion of actually decent troops

happen to be in the same place at the

same time the idea that they could place

a unified Rebel Army at a numeric dis

Advantage at this stage in the war seems

unlikely but the hunter still has the

means to place them in a material and

far power disadvantage if they choose

when and where to fight and the downside

of having pushed the hunter out much of

marar is that they're now a whole lot

harder to Ambush not only that but they

can draw on more tightly controlled

supply lines substantial reserves of

critical resources and although the

hunter has never been popular in miar

there are loyalists for them to draw on

as well it's unclear just how long the

hunter could survive a Siege stuck on

perhaps the 10% of territory that it

controls most firmly but with C access

and the bulat's fire power that answer

is more likely to be on the scale of

year years that on the scale of weeks so

now we come to the quandry that mma's

resistance groups are puzzling through

as we speak if we assume that the rest

of the territory currently under tap

Mador control will fall sooner rather

than later and the hunter is backed up

into the territory at most securely

controls then what the hell comes next

this is a question that someone

somewhere within the resistance probably

has some answers to but whatever those

answers are they haven't been shared

with the global public and what those

plans certainly are not are to Just

Launch a full frontal assault and see

tens of thousands on both sides mow down

instead we're going to pose a series of

three hypothetical options to you based

on a combination of expert opinions on

what the next phase of this war might

look like and perhaps a little bit of

educated guesswork on our part and for

the sake of keeping you in suspense

we'll start with a long shot and then

work our way up to plan a the long shot

is the prospect of a direct intervention

in mma's ongoing Conflict by a more

powerful neighbor not Thailand to the

South not India to the west but TR to

the North China has long used a heavy

hand in Mama backing governments or

pushing them down as Beijing sees fit

but their approach has been as nuanced

as it's been forceful for a long time

China has balanced itself in the ongoing

conflict sending weapons to militias

including groups that it knows will

trade with the three Brotherhood

Alliance and other resistance

organizations but simultaneously

supplying the hunter with the military

equipment it needs to survive but now

China's hedging has turned into what

writer Lucas Myers described for war on

the Rocks as quote mismanaging of the

unmanageable and rather than stay

stagnant in a strategy that's no longer

working Beijing has adjusted in a way

that the hunter has not been happy to

see with Ming on hang's troops getting

their asses kicks all up and down the

jungles of marar China has worked to

establish relations with the resistance

groups that now occupy the other side of

their border and Beijing has been

thankful to the three Brotherhood

Alliance in helping to temp down on a

cyber scamming industry in Myanmar that

defrauds Chinese citizens of billions of

US dollars worth of money every year

China has still played both sides of the

conflict but its decisions have broadly

favored the three Brotherhood Alliance

recognizing that even if Beijing would

prefer the hunter in charge that's a

prospect that probably can't be

recovered at this stage the Hun may or

may not believe that it could retake

Myanmar with China's help but one thing

it knows for certain and that's that

it's royally screwed if China comes down

on the other side as a result the

Hunter's current posture toward Beijing

has less to do with making any specific

requests for major assistance and more

with just kissing xiin P's ass and

hoping for the best for the short term

that approach seems to be working at the

time of rising China has just recently

promised that it would help the hunter

run a census and then an election while

politely brushing off Min an Kang's

accusations that Beijing is sending

weapons to the resistance that promise

for electoral support is most likely an

attempt to offer the hunter a way out of

its mess in hopes that the conflict can

still be drawn down but say the hunter

plays its current hand poorly perhaps by

insisting that a peaceful reconciliation

is impossible and as a result China

concludes that supporting the hunter is

no longer in its interest the thing that

comes next could happen in two ways

option one the more likely one is that

China's material support for the

resistance would increase perhaps that

could include the shipment of more or

better weapons perhaps it could involve

the provision of a wider array of

supplies or perhaps it could include the

delivery of armor artillery and other

heavy equipment that the hunter has thus

been lacking so far option two is less

likely but it Bears consideration anyhow

Chinese boots on the ground that could

come in a few ways perhaps by

temporarily removing the uniforms and

badges of some Elite troops or fighter

pilots or what have you and sending them

in as unidentified mercenaries like

Russia did in crime a in 2014 or it

could involve limited postings of

Chinese troops to deter the hunter from

engaging in attacks or counterattacks or

in an extreme scenario China could send

its Army in with intent to kill any of

these options are not likely after all

Beijing is very cautious when it comes

to military matters and has a long

history of declining to intervene in

moments like this but with Beijing

looking to signal and test its

preparedness for war there's a small but

real possibility that myamar could be a

place for troops to pick up experience

in live combat but nonetheless China's

intervention is what will classify as

the least likely of our three scenarios

perhaps calling it plan C for obvious

reasons but if that's plan C then plan B

centers not around China but the tador

as we explained previously the tamador

is going through a very hard time at

this stage in the conflict and to say

the morale is in the toilets is quite

frankly an insult to toilets even tador

soldiers who've retreated to the

strongholds have a keen recollection of

their Superior struggle and often

disinterest in getting them food or

basic medical care of the Hunter's

willingness to direct them to stay and

die defending outposts that everyone

knew were a lost cause many remember

being forced to serve in the military in

the first place despite never having had

the slightest intention of signing up

we've posited that those same troops

backed into a corner with more allies

beside them but nowhere to run might

find it within themselves to stand and

fight but what if the battle they're

waiting for simply never arrives let's

say that the many Rebel armies enclose

the hunter in its cities and its bases

and then wait let's say the rebels cook

Ming anang and his generals and cook

their troops along with them in a long

and arduous slow roasting that seiz

supplies dwindle food reserves run out

and vectors of Escape be slowly

eliminated the tador is well accustomed

to overthrowing leaders of marar that

don't follow its will and if you squint

your tilt your hair just a little bit

mingang is a leader of Myanmar

regardless what the patches on his chest

might indicate of a station if military

morale can be pushed low enough the

rebels stand a chance at making one of

two things happen while they hold their

perimeter either some of the generals

within Minong hang's own leadership get

Restless eventually toppling him and

replacing him with a figure willing to

negotiate a return to Nationwide

civilian government all the generals

don't get a choice amidst a mutiny by

Junior officers and enlisted troops

who've had to go hungry for too long

either way the process of getting there

will take time but there's certainly a

chance and by pling the seeds of

rebellion we also find our way to plan a

perhaps the Rebel's best chance of

breaking the Hunter's strongholds wide

open that perhaps unsurprisingly is the

prospect of a popular Revolt not by the

ethnic militias in the countryside but

the people of the Cities the hunter

lists who do exist in marar primarily

call its biggest City's home and even

there the hunter tends to rule more by

fear than by love in one example of the

Hunter's willingness to shake even the

confidence of its City dwelling citizens

this past February saw a return of mask

inscription laws in Hunter controls

areas the hunter followed up on the

conscription Drive they promised sending

thousands of unwilling young men and

women out to the front lines at a time

when support was already dwindling

thousands of young people fled to join

resistance groups or left the country

outright in much of marar including the

major cities Ordinary People would quite

like to see a return to civilian

leadership and Democratic Rule and many

people are horrified as one might expect

by the incredible brutality the hunter

has shown against its own civilians

elsewhere although the people of Yangon

and Mandalay may not share an ethnicity

or a home with the people the hunter has

massacred one thing is abundantly clear

simply being a citizen of myma is not

enough to stop Ming on langang from

turning on you when he sees fit the

resistance has already begun to put the

pressure on the hunter in those cities

including drone and Rocket attacks on

Napal bomb attacks in yangan and visible

massing near the most vulnerable three

cities Mandalay the message is clear

even in your strongholds we can get to

you and we're coming each of the three

cities has some limited strategic

vulnerability to worry about Mandalay is

on the fringes of Hunter territory and

is backed onto a river that can be used

to encircle it while napar isn't far

from a major resistance group's

territory and Yangon is backed up to the

Sea making it vulnerable from that

direction if mma's Southern tail is

taken over but far more important is the

work that the resistance has already

done and will continue to do inside the

cities elements of the major Rebel

groups are already inside the cities

especially the people's Defense Force

the multiethnic group that serves as an

armed wing of the national Unity

government they're widely understood to

be recruiting establishing Rebel cells

and laying the groundwork for the stage

that comes next I appears to be that

they can either dismantle the major

cities from inside or more likely

Inspire the public to join a mass

popular Revolt if they can do that

toppling one of the Cities perhaps two

or even three then the hunter will lose

many of its troops and be forced into a

defense solely from its largest bases a

losing effort that the hunter probably

wouldn't be inclined or equipped to

continue for long

if the rebels are able to force a

breakthrough it's likely going to be

through one of three paths getting lucky

with china cooking the cities until the

tap Mador collapses or inspiring an even

greater R Rising among the people of MMA

but there's also a very real chance that

such a breakthrough will be slow to come

or perhaps won't come at all if the

winter can play its cards right and

focus on withdrawing and holding its

stronghold territory at all costs then

it's unlikely that a full-scale attack

by the rebels would be enough if the

rebels aren't able to arm themselves to

the level that they could truly go

toe-to-toe remember these are

organizations built and trained for

asymmetric Warfare and while they're not

incapable of learning to use the tanks

and artillery they capture they can't

overcome their current equipment deficit

through heart and fighting Spirit alone

it's here that we conclude with an eye

to the Future and the many ways that

this conflict could either end or at the

very least be drawn down into a lower

intensity struggle while some semblance

of order returns to most places the

organization that bearss primary

responsibility for the vision of myamar

after the war is the national Unity

government a well-liked organization

within myamar that's proved able to

command the enthusiasm of a wide range

of ethnic militias and peacetime leaders

the national Unity government captures

strong support across ethnicities with

one study in early 2024 indicating that

nearly nine and 10 members of Mara's

diaspora population around the world

have a somewhat or highly favorable

opinion of them those numbers only count

for so much considering that most ped

people were living in myamar at the time

but they do mean something and the

national Unity government does have a

plan they've got a president a vice

president a state counselor a prime

minister a full set of ministers and

more all in Exile and waiting for the

opportunity to take the lead they are

highly influential and if the various

factions of Mya's resistance choose to

support them then the plan for

governance and international recognition

that they offer actually seems as if it

could work but there's no guarantee that

those same resistance organizations

would support the national Unity

government if push came to shove and in

the myar that would likely result from a

defeat of the hunter no faction is

likely to be powerful enough to assert

control of the others the national Unity

government's armed Wing is powerful but

not powerful enough to pacify the major

resistance groups let alone if the 3 BHA

remains Allied and chooses not to play

nice the tamador would be shattered by

that point perhaps rebuilding but not

fast enough to assert any real level of

control nor would any of the resistance

groups even the 3 BHA be able to take

power for themselves and the idea that

they'd all get behind the national Unity

government is far from a guarantee every

single one of these organizations acts

in its own interest with its own set of

incentives often prioritizing its own

ethnic or Regional Community above any

other some are autocratic in the

territory they control some are

negligent some are exploitative and some

like the iraan army of the 3 BHA have a

tendency to adopt some of the military

Hunter's worst traits the iraan Army in

particular has been accused of extreme

and indiscriminate violence against the

country's predominantly Muslim rohinga

minority

the same group that are faed treatment

by mayar's government that most the

world agrees constituted genocide other

groups Thrive or even depend outright on

the drug trade to the point that last

December the UN declared that marar

become the world's leading producer of

opium methamphetamines aren't exactly a

niche industry either and nor are other

sorts of organized crime including the

Cyber scams that China so recently

thanked the 3 BHA for working to

constrain despite the promises and

potential of Mama's Grand Uprising two

equally likely paths forward exist now

the first sees the resistance unify

under the national Unity government as

much of the world hopes they will but

the second sees the national Unity

government diminish to a puppet state at

best with each patch of territory

controlled by a different militia and

each Militia free to rule over its

territor as it sees fit marar could very

quickly become a patchwork of autonomous

regions minding their own business or

fighting as they see fit perhaps the

national Unity government rules over one

such area perhaps they even speak for

marar on the global stage but there's no

guarantee that anybody else in marar

listens and in that version of the

country strange as it may be to say

there might still be room for a hunter

that hasn't fallen at all if each group

rules over 3 5 8 10% of the country's

territory well what's one more if one

thing is certain is that marar Civil War

is barely inches from its end game but

that end game can store go a whole lot

of different ways there's no guarantee

that the finished result will even be

recognizable as a nation let alone as

myar