Elon Musk: AI Will Change Everything

Summary

马斯克谈到人工智能将极大地改变世界,尤其是自动驾驶技术。他预测未来5-10年内汽车将基本实现全自动驾驶。此外,他还提到新的特斯拉车型设计,包括性能更强的特斯拉公路者,以及下一个更低成本的车型,这些车型都将考虑到自动驾驶的发展。总体来说,他对人工智能产生的变化抱以积极乐观的态度。

Takeaways

• 🚗 埃隆·马斯克预测，在未来5到10年内，人工智能将深刻改变世界，尤其是在自动驾驶技术方面。
• 🌐 马斯克提到，他们首先在美国实现自动驾驶技术的成功，然后才考虑将其扩展到其他复杂性更高的地区。
• 👀 他强调，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术主要依靠数字神经网络和摄像头，而不是雷达或激光雷达。
• 🤖 马斯克认为，实现完全自动驾驶需要创建一种类似婴儿级别的人工通用智能，这一挑战非常大。
• ⏱ 马斯克预测，自动驾驶车辆的使用率将显著提高，可能每周使用时间从目前的10小时增加到50-60小时。
• 💻 他还提到，人工智能计算的发展速度是前所未有的，大约每六个月增长10倍。
• 🔋 马斯克指出，NVIDIA由于其在神经网络芯片方面的领先地位，市值极高，反映了人工智能技术的快速发展。
• 🤖 马斯克提及特斯拉正在开发类似人类的机器人（如Optimus项目），这些机器人将能执行几乎所有人类能做的工作。
• 📈 他认为，人工智能将显著提高各行各业的生产力，从手工劳动到供应链物流。
• 🚘 关于特斯拉的未来车型，马斯克透露他们正在开发一款更低成本、更加注重自动驾驶的新一代车型。

Q & A

埃隆·马斯克如何看待人工智能在未来5到10年内的发展?

马斯克认为,人工智能将会极大地改变世界。其中最重要的一个方面是自动驾驶技术。特斯拉正在致力于研发自动驾驶汽车。

埃隆·马斯克认为自动驾驶技术会带来什么影响?

马斯克认为,当汽车实现完全自动驾驶后,每辆汽车的使用效率将会提高5倍,因为自动驾驶汽车可以像出租车一样运营。

埃隆·马斯克如何评价人工智能芯片行业的发展?

马斯克认为,人工智能芯片行业的发展速度前所未见,每6个月就以10倍的速度增长。这是英伟达市值巨大的一个重要原因。

埃隆·马斯克对人工智能未来的担忧是什么?

马斯克曾一度担心人工智能的发展会让人类变得毫无用处。但现在他想看看人工智能带来的变化,即使面临风险也在所不惜。

埃隆·马斯克认为人工智能会如何影响生产力?

马斯克认为,人工智能将极大地提高所有领域的生产力,包括手工劳动、供应链物流等。已经有许多客户服务聊天机器人能够回答复杂的问题。

特斯拉正在开发什么类型的机器人?

特斯拉Optimus项目正在开发类人机器人,具有完成几乎任何人类能做的事情的能力。

电动汽车和人工智能增长带来了什么挑战?

电动汽车和人工智能的同步高速增长,正在产生巨大的对电气设备和发电的需求,这是一个基础设施与技术发展的竞赛。

48伏特系统为什么是汽车电气系统的未来发展方向?

48伏特系统可以大大减少汽车所需的铜材料,与12伏特系统相比约减少75%。这是汽车低压系统的下一步发展。

特斯拉下一代车型有什么特点?

特斯拉下一代车型将更便宜,并且充分利用自动驾驶技术。还将有一些有趣的功能,如1秒内加速到100公里每小时。

埃隆·马斯克对合作伙伴的支持表示了什么?

马斯克对合作伙伴多年来的支持表示衷心感谢,特斯拉的速度、态度和创新总能激发合作伙伴。

Outlines

00:00

🚗 人工智能的未来展望

在这一段中，埃隆·马斯克分享了他对未来5到10年人工智能（AI）发展的看法，特别强调了自动驾驶技术的重要性。他提到，尽管在欧洲还未广泛推出，但在美国，特斯拉的自动驾驶技术已经相当成熟，能够实现从家到机场等路线的全自动驾驶。他还提到了人类驾驶车辆与AI技术之间的相似性，比如使用相似的神经网络和视觉系统。此外，他预测自动驾驶将极大提升私家车的使用效率，并触及了AI在其他领域，如在线服务和生产力提升等方面的应用前景。马斯克还提到了AI计算能力的快速增长，以及对此带来的需求，如NVIDIA芯片的市场价值的显著增长。他最后提及了特斯拉正在开发的人形机器人项目Optimus，以及他对未来AI和机器人发展的乐观态度。

05:02

💡 人工智能的发展挑战

在这一段中，马斯克表达了对AI技术发展速度的惊叹，特别是在计算能力方面的指数级增长。他讨论了这种增长的可持续性，预测将会遇到物理和资源限制，如电力和变压器的需求。他进一步探讨了这些挑战对自动驾驶车辆和AI技术的影响，如电动汽车的充电基础设施建设和电力需求。马斯克还提到了特斯拉在提高电动汽车能效方面的努力，如采用更高电压系统来减少铜线使用。此外，他强调了基础设施建设与技术发展之间的竞争，以及对两者平衡的重要性。

10:02

🚀 特斯拉的未来车型和电动汽车的普及

在这一段中，马斯克讨论了特斯拉对未来电动汽车设计的规划，特别是关注于更低成本车型的开发，以满足市场对于经济型电动车的需求。他强调了自动驾驶技术的重要性，并提到了特斯拉的下一代车型将大力采用这项技术。他还提到了特斯拉Roadster的更新，它将具备极高的加速能力。马斯克对电动汽车未来的乐观态度及其对合作伙伴的感谢，表明了特斯拉在推动电动汽车和自动驾驶技术方面的持续努力。

Keywords

💡人工智能

人工智能是视频中的核心话题。伊隆·马斯克强调人工智能将深刻改变世界,尤其是在自动驾驶汽车领域。他表示,为实现全自动驾驶,汽车需要像人类大脑一样具有强大的人工智能。这需要创建一个“婴儿通用人工智能”来解决这一任务。

💡自动驾驶

自动驾驶是人工智能应用的重要领域。视频中马斯克详细讨论了特斯拉在自动驾驶技术上的进展。他认为特斯拉已相当接近实现汽车的全自动驾驶,这将极大地提高出行的便利性。

💡神经网络

视频中马斯克将人类大脑比作“生物神经网络”,而汽车自动驾驶系统则依赖“数字神经网络”。这是人工智能的核心技术,正快速发展着。

💡芯片短缺

针对人工智能运算需求的专用芯片供不应求,马斯克预言这将导致“有史以来最大的科技革命”。他详细分析了人工智能运算力每6个月增长10倍的惊人速度。

💡超级充电网络

马斯克认为,电动汽车的推广面临基础设施跟不上的风险。为解决这一问题,特斯拉开发了全球超级充电网络,确保电动汽车可以随时随地充电。

💡电动汽车

马斯克预计,自动驾驶普及后,每辆乘用车的使用率将大幅提高,电动汽车也随之大规模普及,对电力系统提出了更高的要求。

💡新车型

马斯克透露,特斯拉下一代汽车将专注于自动驾驶,并致力于让驾驶“感觉平顺和直观”。此外,Roadster 2等车型也在开发中,目标是做到极快的0-100加速。

💡合作伙伴

马斯克在谈话结尾感谢了与宝马集团15年的合作,这表明两家公司存在战略合作。马斯克赞赏宝马的速度、主张和执著。

💡电力基础设施

马斯克分析认为,电动汽车和人工智能的双重增长给电力基础设施带来了巨大压力。这预示着对电气设备和发电的大规模需求增长。

💡规模需求

马斯克预测,随着规模化应用,对人工智能芯片和电力的巨大需求最终将面临物理和监管限制。这些“有趣的时代”带来巨大机遇的同时也预示着未来的挑战。

Highlights

Self-driving cars are close to being fully autonomous

Self-driving uses artificial intelligence and neural networks

AI compute is advancing faster than any technology

AI will increase productivity dramatically across fields

We are on the edge of the biggest technology revolution

Next shortage after chips will be voltage transformers

After that, electricity shortage for all the AI chips

Tesla developing humanoid Optimus robot capable of most human tasks

Higher voltage reduces copper needed, so cars will go to 48V

Simultaneous EV and AI growth creating huge electricity demand

Tesla built superchargers for long distance EV travel

Next gen Tesla car highly autonomous and lower cost

New Tesla Roadster can do 0-100 km/h in under 1 second

Autonomy and fun are important for next gen vehicles

Thanking Tesla for 15 years of partnership and inspiration

Transcripts

welcome big hand to Elon

Musk thank you thanks oh how are you

good

fantastic we have we have had two we

have two days of AI and geni and

whatsoever but you look real my head is

very big in the screen added reality too

I suppose we haven't had so much talk

about AI in these two days so we need

your opinion what do you think about the

next 5 to 10 years on AI please give us

a you artificial insemination elligence

what do you think about

that but try try audience I say um yes

artificial intelligence is is is

certainly going to profoundly change the

world one of the most significant ways

is self-driving so we've been putting a

lot of effort into self-driving

technology for cars you you don't see it

quite as much in Europe because we we

first have to make it work in the US

before we increase the complexity of

trying to make it elsewhere in the world

but I think we're quite close to having

the car be fully autonomous so for

example like right now I could I'm in

Austin and if I went to drive say to the

airport the car could take me to the

airport with no interventions using and

all it's using are digital Neal Nets

other words artificial intelligence and

ceras so there's no liar radar nothing

and in fact if you think about how

humans drive cars humans are biological

neural Nets and we use eyes so it's eyes

and biological neur neets the analog is

digital the analog for digital is

cameras and digital neuron Nets this is

working remarkably well the it has been

quite difficult to do this because turns

out that in order to use in order for

this to work the car has to really be

quite fully intelligent really as as a

subset for example has to learn how to

read everything and and and how to

assess intention among drivers and

pedestrians so it's it's you're end up

creating sort of a baby artificial

general intelligence to solve this but

this will obviously be extremely

profound and obvious I'm talking about

Automotive here I'll get into the

broader question in a minute but the the

average use of a passenger vehicle is

only about 10 hours per week out of

hours the point at which it is

autonomous I think You' see probably a

third of the hours being used because it

would be like a taxi maybe my guess is

like 50 to 60 hours which means that the

utility of a passenger vehicle would

increase by uh a factor of five and this

is this is gigantic but we'll see so

that that's the one motive then there's

what people have think have certainly

experienced online where you can ask it

a question and ask for an essay or a

picture or to understand a picture and

that is progressing rapidly what what

I'm seeing in terms of AI compute is

I've never seen any technology Advance

faster than this the the artificial

intelligence compute coming online

appears to be increasing by a factor of

10 every 6 months like obviously that

cannot continue at at such a high rate

for forever or will exceed the mass of

the universe but I've never seen

anything like it and this is why you see

nvidia's market cap being so gigantic CU

they currently have the best neural net

chips I mean I think the didn't nvidia's

market cap exceed the GDP of Canada or

something increasingly anyway it was

quite high so yeah you know it may go

higher who knows chip Rush is bigger

than any Gold Rush that has ever existed

so and then there will also be robots

like humanoid humanoid robots not not

just sort industrial industrial robots

are of course familiar with you use

industrial robots we use industrial

robots everyone does but they're

programmed explicitly and they they

don't walk around but Tesla with for

example the Optimus program is making a

humanoid robot that is capable of doing

almost anything a human can do um I mean

I hope I just hope the the robots are

nice to us you know we hope so we hope

so too youon that the robots will be

nice to us and maybe let's say in this

regard because you are working on what

can we expect of let's say support which

is going to come maybe also a little bit

with regard to production because in the

BOS connected world we were also

discussing application of AI gen AI into

production in order to Bo productivity

maybe a couple of thoughts on this one

too well the plus side of AI is that I

think productivity will increase

dramatically so across every field

whether it be manual labor to supply

chain Logistics there's already a lot of

movement to use chatbots like

sophisticated chatbots for customer

service for example where they can

answer quite quite complex questions

already but I mean I think we really are

on the edge of probably the biggest

technology Revolution that has ever

existed you know there's supposedly sort

of a Chinese curse may you live in

interesting times Well we live in the

most interesting of times the most most

interesting and for for a while I was a

little bit it was making me bit a bit

depressed frankly cuz I was like well

will we be will they take over will we

be useless but then the way that I

reconciled myself to this question was

would I rather be alive to see AI

apocalypse or not I'm like I guess I'd

like to see this

uh you know that's a good thought going

to be boring that's a good thought

because you mentioned every six months

that's an exponential curve right

exponential curves are beautiful but

there's kind of a question where does it

ever end right do you see any end yet or

will it go on for 3 four five years like

this because then we talk 100 folds

right thousand folds of time yeah that's

why I said obviously yeah I mean you you

can't you can't grow at that rate

without quickly exceeding the mass of

the universe so clearly it's going to

hit some constraints the constraints

that AI compute and very predictable

I've actually predicted this over a year

ago so over a year ago the shortage was

chips neural net chips then I it was

very easy for predict that the next

shortage will be voltage step down

Transformers so it's you you've got to

feed the power to these things so if

you've got 100 to 300 Kilts coming out

of a utility and it's got to step all

the way down to you know6 volts that's a

lot of stepping down so now we're in

step down and this is my not that funny

joke which is that they need

Transformers to run Transformers cuz you

know the AI is like there's this thing

called a transformer in AI it's a it's a

neur a neural I don't know it's a

combination of sort of neural Nets and

they're running out of Transformers to

run Transformers then the next shortage

will be electricity so I think next year

you'll see the electricity that they

just can't find enough electricity run

all the chips I mean during the chip

crisis we certainly all did have many

contacts fortunately we were able to

master it together of course we all

would like uh to avoid a second chip

crisis but with regard to your to your

comment on on power demand we all know

today vehicles have 3 to 4 kilowatt

power Dem demand for the peripherals but

this is continuously going up and teslam

has recently launched the Cyber truck

which I believe is mostly coming with 48

volt do you see this as a let's say

further disruption of automotive

industry another technology change

within Automotive yeah I I think you

know the automotive industry has been

living with 12 volts for a very long

time a century roughly I think it

started off as six bolts and then they

needed a a more powerful starter motor

and then they doubled it to 12 volts

although it's it's actually more like

13.7 volts you're right absolutely yeah

and and the bus voltage actually varies

a lot for those since probably some

electrical engineers in the audience

like 12 volts is a very rough

approximation but it's it's it's really

it's really kind of a arbitrary low

voltage and if you look at say power

ethernet it's running at 50 volts or

roughly 48 volts and we set it at 4 48

volts because anything really above that

you start to run into regulatory

concerns and power ethernet is like I

said roughly at that level but the

advantage of obviously quadrupling the

voltage is that you can substantially

reduce how much copper or conductor is

used in the car so you can use very

small copper wires for you know it's

rough roughly a roughly a quarter not

exactly a quarter but roughly a quarter

as much as as much copper is needed for

48 volts as 412 so I think it's it's a

logical move that's that's really the

next step for the low voltage

architecture for the car I think

ultimately long-term War cars will be 48

it's it's interesting that many people

love electric vehicles and want to have

them but some are harmed by a missing

infrastructure that would be the same

actually as the other thing we will have

lots of chips ready but we will have had

the power to to operate them there's a

race between infrastructure and

Technology right now and uh you're also

certain technology may win which is a

problem because actually infrastructure

should win we should have all the

infrastructure we need is that correct

yeah are you talking about like sort of

charg infrastructure for cars and that

kind of thing well the the reason Tesa

developed the sort of global supercharge

network was specifically to address that

point and the point you're making which

is people need to be comfortable that

they can travel long distances and

charge their car wherever they go

unfortunately electricity is almost

everywhere and so it you know it's not

not all that rare unless you're really

far out in the countryside or something

so yeah you need the super need you need

the charging infrastructure and the

electricity to charge electric cars in

fact the the the simultaneous growth of

electric cars and AI both of which need

electricity both of which need voltage

Transformers actually I think is

creating a tremendous demand for

electrical equipment and for electrical

power generation maybe one more question

Elon with regard to new vehicle designs

coming to the market of course you

cannot share with us confidential

Secrets but but anyways what are the

things you believe let's say we will see

over the next years in the market and

maybe just a small comment in Europe we

see a shortage of affordable battery

electric vehicles in the offerings uh

because many people in Europe are only

able to spend like 20,000 25,000 for

their vehicles so so what are the new

vehicle types vehicle designs you you

are thinking about at Tesla well our

next Generation vehicle will be a a low

a lower cost vehicle also that is very

focused on a

like I said the we really are getting to

the point where the car can drive itself

well when you're in the in the US I

would recommend perhaps giving you know

trying out our car and see seeing how it

works it's remarkable you know as the AI

gets better and better it actually feels

quite humanlike in the way that it

drives it does things that you wouldn't

expect a computer to do it's it's not

like a robot dancing you know it's like

it feels smooth and and intuitive so our

next Generation vehicle which're quite

far along on is is very much

anticipating autonomy and then of course

we've got some fun things as well like

on our the new Tesla roads which will be

able to do 0 to 100 kilm in under 1

second great thank you very much you

know that's good we need that's good

news that's do some fun stuff too you

know that's the that's the that's the

dessert that's the cherry on the cake

but it's it's fun you're going to have

fun stuff too yeah right no that's very

good news because in the end there's a

lot of people here in the room that

still on the list to buy an electric

vehicle and you just announced something

which they probably want to buy so thank

you very much thank you very much and

thank you extremely for 15 years of

partnership and work together we're

inspired Always by your speed attitude

or graphicness and things come out thank

you very much T must all right and thank

you for your support very very much

appreciated