How I Research Stocks - Step-by-Step Fundamental Analysis

Summary

在这个视频中，投资分析师和投资组合经理Richard Coffin分享了他的投资研究过程。他强调了这个过程不是严格不变的，但希望可以为想自己研究股票的人提供一些价值。Richard讨论了不同的股票研究方法，包括技术分析、定量分析和他个人偏好的基本分析，并介绍了价值投资和成长投资的概念。视频内容被划分成章节，涵盖了从筛选股票到理解企业运营、财务状况、战略规划，以及如何进行估值分析的各个步骤。他还分享了一些免费和付费的工具和资源，以及如何有效地使用它们进行研究。最后，他强调了持续研究投资的重要性，并感谢Morning Brew赞助本视频，推荐了这个作为了解市场动态的免费资源。

Takeaways

• 😀本视频由Morning Brew赞助，提倡订阅他们的每日新闻简报。
• 📈视频主持人Richard Coffin分享了他作为投资分析师的研究过程。
• 🔍投资研究过程包括筛选想法、深入了解企业、分析财务数据、评估公司战略、估值和审查。
• 🚫Richard 强调，大多数人可能更适合通过聘请专业人士或被动投资来管理他们的资金。
• 📊他提到了不同的股票研究方法：技术分析、定量分析和基本面分析。
• 💹Richard 倾向于价值投资，但也持有一些成长型公司的股票。
• 🔬在理解企业部分，他强调了了解公司的各个方面，包括业务模式、收入性质、地理位置、客户和供应商等。
• 💼财务分析着重于审视公司的偿债能力、增长轮廓、盈利能力以及通过比较不同的财务指标来进行同行比较。
• 📈策略理解部分要评估管理层的战略规划、资金使用计划以及资金融通方式。
• 🏷价值评估涉及相对估值和绝对估值两种方法，以确定股票当前的市场定价是否合理。
• 📝最后，Richard 会复查并总结研究笔记，确保未来可以快速参考，并用于监控投资标的或发现新机会。

Q & A

理查德·科芬在视频中主要介绍了哪些内容？

理查德·科芬在视频中介绍了他作为一名投资分析师和投资组合经理的投资研究过程，包括筛选股票的方法、理解企业的业务、财务分析、评估企业战略和估值方法，以及如何整理和复审研究笔记。

理查德·科芬为什么不推荐个人进行股票挑选？

理查德·科芬指出，大量研究显示，通过股票挑选超越市场是非常困难的。除非个人对股票研究充满热情，否则大多数人更适合将精力投入到其他地方，比如雇佣专业人士或者进行被动投资。

理查德提到的股票研究过程中有哪几种分析方法？

他提到的股票研究方法包括技术分析（侧重过去的价格）、定量分析（分析不同量化变量之间的关系）和基本面分析（他个人采用的方法，着重理解企业的基本面）。

什么是价值投资和成长投资？

价值投资是试图以低于其内在价值的价格购买优质公司的策略，而成长投资是愿意为拥有未来利润增长潜力的公司支付更高价格的策略。理查德偏向于价值投资，但也持有一些成长型公司。

理查德是如何筛选想要研究的股票的？

他使用股票筛选器根据特定标准（如收入增长、盈利能力和债务水平）缩小股票范围，并通过内部工具快速概览公司的关键财务信息，以决定是否深入研究。

理查德如何理解一家企业的业务？

他通过阅读年报、季度报告、投资者报告和最近的8-K文件等，深入了解公司的业务细节，包括其营业部门、收入来源、地理位置、主要利益相关者和关键绩效指标等。

在进行财务分析时，理查德主要关注哪些内容？

在财务分析中，他关注公司的财务状况、增长轮廓、盈利能力以及潜在的改善领域，通过分析财务报表和计算各种增长率、边际利润率和比率来完成。

企业战略评估中，理查德关注哪些方面？

他评估管理层的战略优先事项、资本支出计划以及这些计划的资金来源，同时评估这些计划的可行性、风险和公司执行这些计划的历史记录。

股票估值时，理查德采用了哪些方法？

他使用相对估值（如市盈率、企业价值对EBITDA比率等）和绝对估值（如贴现现金流分析）方法来评估股票的价值，同时也考虑当前的市场状况和公司未来的发展前景。

理查德如何整理和复审研究笔记？

在研究过程结束时，理查德会整理和归档他的研究笔记，确保未来可以快速回顾。他还会寻找与他的投资论点相反的观点，并与团队分享以获得反馈，最终形成一份正式的报告。

Outlines

00:00

🔍投资分析过程介绍

本段介绍了主持人Richard Coffin的投资研究过程。作为一名投资分析师和投资组合经理，他分享了自己的研究方法，包括筛选股票、理解企业业务、财务分析和投资决策。他强调了投资研究的复杂性和个性化，同时也提到了除了基本面分析外还有技术分析和定量分析等多种研究方法。此外，他还提到了自己在价值投资中的偏好，并解释了如何通过章节划分视频内容，以便观众可以跳转至感兴趣的部分。

05:00

📊详细的研究步骤和方法

这一段详细描述了Richard进行股票研究的具体步骤，包括如何通过SWOT分析框架整理信息，识别企业的财务状况，以及如何使用不同的财务比率和指标进行比较分析。他讨论了如何利用各种公开和付费的资源来收集数据和信息，并强调了在研究过程中识别红旗和潜在风险的重要性。此外，他还分享了自己如何记录和组织研究过程中的笔记和发现，以及如何评估企业的商业模式和竞争优势。

10:02

📈深入分析和评估

在这一部分，Richard深入讨论了如何评估一家公司的前景和策略，包括管理层的战略计划、资本支出和融资方式。他强调了理解公司历史表现的重要性，并如何根据这些信息预测未来表现。此外，他也谈到了如何进行估值分析，包括相对估值和绝对估值方法，以及如何根据最新的市场动态调整投资决策。Richard还提到了如何通过检查公司的新闻发布和管理层讨论来获取战略信息，并强调了持续研究和更新对投资成功的重要性。

15:03

📝总结和未来的观察

最后一段中，Richard讲述了如何将研究成果整理成报告，并如何将公司加入观察名单以备未来投资机会。他强调了复审研究笔记的重要性，以便在市场发生变化时迅速做出反应。此外，他分享了自己如何通过对比不同观点和意见来验证自己的投资论点，并说明了与团队分享和讨论研究成果的价值。最后，他感谢了视频赞助商Morning Brew，并推荐了其作为获取市场新闻和信息的资源。

Keywords

💡投资研究

投资研究是指对证券如股票进行深入分析,以确定其投资价值和风险的过程。视频详细解释了作者作为投资分析师的股票研究步骤,包括业务了解、财务分析、战略评估等。

💡业务了解

了解被投资公司的业务运作是股票研究的重要一步。这包括理解其营收结构、地域分布、客户群等,以全面评估公司的竞争优势和风险。

💡财务分析

对公司的收入表现、资产负债表、现金流等财务报表进行分析,了解公司的盈利能力、偿债能力、运营效率等信息。这是判断公司质量的关键。

💡战略评估

了解管理层的未来发展战略,包括资本支出计划、融资方式选择等,以评估公司的增长前景和风险。这有助于判断公司的投资价值。

💡同业比较

将被投资公司的重要财务指标和行业指标进行比较分析,判断公司的相对表现如盈利能力、成长性等,为投资决策提供参考。

💡估值

基于对公司质量和未来前景的判断,选取合适的估值模型对其股票进行估值,如市盈率法、自由现金流模型等。这是确定合理价格的关键。

💡红旗

在研究过程中审慎检查会对公司前景和投资价值产生重大负面影响的风险因素,如相关方交易、管理层激励机制等。

💡整理归档

在完成研究后,整理归档关键信息,包括投资论点、未来关注要点等,以备后续跟踪调研使用。

💡更新调研

在投资后持续关注公司最新发展,如业绩报告、重要管理层变动、行业政策等,判断这些信息是否改变了原有的投资论点。

💡圈子竞争优势

沃伦•巴菲特提出的概念,是指公司具有的使其难以被同行业竞争对手模仿的独特优势,这类公司往往具有更好的盈利前景。

Highlights

Overview of my stock research process as an investment analyst

I tilt towards value investing, trying to buy great companies at good prices, but also hold some growth companies

Understand all aspects of the business to evaluate it like an owner

Analyze financial statements and metrics to evaluate financial health

Transcripts

this video is sponsored by morningbrew

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today

ladies and gentlemen welcome to the

plain bagel I'm your host Richard coffin

today's video is a bit of a peek behind

the curtain to show you how the bagels

are made and discuss my own investment

research process as a investment analyst

I've had this requested quite a few

times over the years given that I work

as a portfolio manager investment

analyst for my day job and I figured

what the heck I would cover things at a

high level go through my general

step-by-step process and it's not a very

formal one I do change things up every

now and then but hopefully uh people who

want to go through this process

themselves find a bit of value in it now

if you notice before we get started

firstly this isn't a recommendation that

people should necessarily stock pick or

do their own stock research I think most

people are better served putting their

efforts elsewhere either hiring a

professional or just investing passively

countless Studies have shown just how

difficult it is to beat the market with

stock picking so unless you're

passionate about researching stocks

you'll probably find this all very

boring and strenuous with no guarantee

of strong performance and secondly while

this is obviously my own research

process us there are different ways to

research a stock there's technical

analysis which focuses on past prices

there's quantitative analysis which

focuses on analyzing the relationship

between different quantitative variables

and then there's fundamental analysis

which is my own approach of

understanding the underlying business

and within fundamental analysis there

are different styles as well I do

generally tilt towards value investing

which is trying to buy a great company

at a great price but there is also

growth investing which I do hold some

growth companies where you pay up a

little bit more but they have a larger

potential to grow their profits into the

future this video will be divided into

chapters so you can skip between the

different sections I'll try to provide

alternative tools to the paid ones I use

at work and I'll also throw up a few

terms and and whatever on screen so that

you can have something to reference

later on and for the purpose of saving

time I won't try to Define every

individual metric that that comes up and

we'll generally like mentioned keep

things high level so with that out of

the way let's jump into it the first

step as you can imagine is screening for

ideas and finding the stock that you

want to research the whole research

process takes quite a long time it has

taken weeks at times but obviously

you'll want to narrow down your list of

potential stocks so you don't waste your

time doing this whole process only to

find that you don't really care for the

company now screening isn't necessarily

a formal process I do sometimes just

research a stock because I want to or

there's been an interesting recent

development but I do have a screener

that I regularly refer to a screener

lets you filter the universe of stocks

so that you only have a list of

companies that meet certain criteria I

generally keep it pretty broad but we'll

look for things like Revenue growth

being profitable as well as keeping debt

within a certain range from there I'll

typically put the tickers through an

internal tool that summarizes all their

key financial information onto a

one-page summary not to make any

decision off of but again just to get a

quick overview of how healthy or

unhealthy the company is and whether

it's something I want to look into

covering things like past financial

performance expected consensus estimates

moving forward their debt levels a bunch

of sales just again summarized on a page

to see if there's anything of Interest

here now once I have the company that I

do decide I want to do this deep dive

into the second step is understanding

the business

makes sense I know that sounds obvious

but as an investor you really are a part

business owner so I do try to take the

mindset of understanding the ins and

outs of the company in the same way I

might if I were to buy a private

practice and that means understanding

all the company's segments and what they

do how they earn their money uh the

nature of the company's revenues and

whether they're contractual recurring or

seasonal where the company operates in

terms of geography customers suppliers

employees Regulators management anyone

that plays a role in how this company

will perform and depending on which

sector the company operates within also

make note of their key performance

indicators or kpis which again are kind

of sector specific allow you to compare

companies that are within the same

sector but also requires a bit of

Industry background information and

there are times where I don't research a

company because I don't yet have that

familiarity with the industry it

operates with and you do have to operate

as mentioned many times by others within

your circle of competence where you feel

comfortable now this part is mostly

qualitative there will be say

quantitative figures that come up but a

lot of it is again just understanding

the details of the operations

what this company does so where does

someone find all this information well

outside of a Google search which is not

a bad idea to give you an overview of

the company a good idea is to start with

the annual report or 10K in the US as

well as the most recent quarterly report

if that doesn't also apply to the 10K

all of which you can find on Edgar in

the U.S Cedar here in Canada or the

company's investor relations page

because they do do a good overview of

the company's business the risks

applicable and key financial information

from there I like to go through investor

reports and recent 8K filings which

provide important updates about the

business and I do have access to a lot

of paid for research which I'll

typically go through the external

analysts reports on this company I also

might look up commercials tutorials

customer reviews find any information I

can about them now as you expect that's

a lot of details so I do type notes as

I'm going I do typically categorize

stuff under the SWOT framework which is

strengths weaknesses opportunities and

threats strengths and weaknesses are

internal factors for the company

opportunities and and threats are

external factors and that just lets me

quickly categorize stuff I'll also write

questions that I want to get to later if

there's something I don't understand or

a risk that I've thought of that I want

to look into I kind of do a parking lot

of ideas that I want to go back and

research at a later point and my goal

through all this is trying to find

Quality Companies companies that have a

competitive Advantage an attractive

business model and as Warren Buffett

likes to put in a mode something that

sort of protects them from competition

all right so once we understand the

business the next step is understanding

the finances where we get into the

numbers obviously this is very number

heavy and does require an accounting

background to understand the different

segments that you look at but generally

I'm looking at the company's financial

position in terms of debt how solvent

they are their capital structure and

whether they can meet their payments the

company's growth profile their

profitability and again where they have

areas for improvement a lot of this as

you would imagine does really boil down

to analyzing the financial state

statements the income statement which

tells you how the company performed in

the given year in terms of accounting

earnings the balance sheet which gives

you the snapshot of what the company

owns and what they owe as well as the

cash flow statement which is similar to

the income statement but shows you where

cash is actually moving within the

business not just accounting earnings

and accounting costs where money was

actually spent and earned now I

typically start by calculating a bunch

of cumulative average growth rates which

I'll throw out the formula for but I'll

do this formula over a 5 10 or 15 year

period to get an idea of what the

average growth rate over these periods

are for revenues and profit measures I

also really like common size financial

statements where you put everything as a

percentage of a key figures so for the

income statement that's revenue for the

balance sheet that's total assets and

this is a great way to look from year to

year to see what costs are getting

bigger which ones are getting smaller

relative to the amount of Total Money

that the company is earning then I'll

calculate a bunch of margins and ratios

that again give that profile about how

the company is growing how profitable

they are and different operational

solvency liquidity things that tell me

the General State of Affairs it's also

here where I'll carry out a sort of pure

analysis comparing this company to ones

in a similar space based primarily off

of these Financial details as well as

the key performance indicators found

earlier and I have at times pivoted to a

new idea based on this peer comparison

because something else looked more

attractive once I really got down to the

numbers now throughout this whole

process and earlier with the overview of

the business I do carry out a check for

red flags I call it forensic analysis in

understanding the business I want to

know what the related party transactions

are how management is compensated any

conflicts of interest and in terms of

finances any accounting Shenanigans

unfortunately you can't always rely on

the figures as they're reported

companies do at times fudge the numbers

for example it's really common for

management to highlight what's called an

adjusted figure which is where they take

an accounting figure but then make some

changes to it so that's more

representative of what they believe the

company has done it's not to say that

that's always nefarious but it's really

important to look into what the

definition of that adjusted figure is

and what they are adding or taking out

of this number because the reason it's

adjusted is that it doesn't meet

accounting rules or regulations now in

terms of where to find all this

information I primarily rely on a data

terminal that my company pays for which

unfortunately just isn't an option for a

lot of people they are very expensive

there are free versions out there with

not quite as many features but they're a

good starting point for getting again

the financial statements easily

accessible and if you can get something

with an Excel add-in Kudos because that

really makes it easier to pull the data

that you're looking for into the

template you want when it comes to

things like pure analysis or just the

specific metrics that you want to look

into I've made a crazy amount of use out

of excel templates and programs that

pull data terminal information and one

of our sort of proprietary things for

example is a peer comparison scorecard

where based on the industry there are

different metrics that are populated to

compare companies at a very high level

and quickly see how they look on

different kpis finances all that stuff

so I'll include some free Alternatives I

can't really vouch for many of them but

I have heard of them and if you're

relying on a service for data make sure

you understand how the data is pulled

whether it's aggregated whether they

make any adjustments to it because it

makes it really important when trying to

research a company is being able to rely

on the data all right step four

it's taking longer than I expected but

step four is understanding the strategy

everything we've done so far is the sort

of historical perspective on things at

this point I want to know what the

opportunity moving forward is this

includes going over the Strategic

priorities of management as well as

where they plan to spend money what the

capital expenditure is moving forward

will be a couple of expenditures I don't

think I've talked about but found in the

cash flow statement and it covers the

money the company is investing in itself

I also want to know how they'll be

financing those plans so I'll consider

whether they're taking on more debt or

issuing shares or hybrid instruments

which get a little complicated

regardless of what the plan is what I'm

looking for is to evaluate its

feasibility the risks involved and the

company's track record for doing what

they say they will do moving forward

I've seen a lot of companies fail by

doing something that they have no

experience in doing so it helps when a

company if they are a Serial acquirer

where they buy a bunch of businesses it

helps when they have a history of doing

that successfully sleep and growing

their company as a result actually

optimizing the companies that they bring

in under their umbrella rather than just

spending investor money to put growth on

the accounting statements when they

aren't actually improving their business

one way you can evaluate the track

record is by looking at the 5 10 15 year

average or some variation thereof of Roi

figures which includes return on Capital

employed return on invested capital and

return on Equity among others but those

are ones that I look to look at and you

can do a qualitative review of

management as well in terms of their

experience or tenure with the business

one of the things I found really helpful

myself as an analyst as a quick tip is

building out a checklist of things you

want to explicitly look for and this is

a checklist that you build out as you

research companies and you think of

things that you want to look for when

trying to determine what the mode is

whether they're a healthy business all

this stuff I have my own checklist that

I've built over time just an example of

one thing on there is whether the

company adds value for all the

stakeholders or are there any

stakeholders outside of competition that

will lose from operations and that will

present a risk to the business's success

in terms of where you can find

information about the strategy for the

firm you can typically find it in those

regulatory filings the 10K will

typically have some sort of high-level

strategic objective for the business but

you can also look at investor

presentations which again will highlight

it and transcripts from earnings calls

are great because management is often

asked questions about what they expect

to do moving forward and the challenges

they expect you might also find

transcripts from the different

conferences management have gone to

which you again might be able to find on

the Mr relations page and also through

my company I've been able to meet

Executives and have calls and attend

in-person meetings with Executives from

different companies in terms of research

in the industry again I do have some

paid for services which really help I do

really rely on the data terminal as well

as some expert inputs and new sources

but in terms of news that's actually a

good thing that most people can access

is just researching news about about the

industry you might be able to find some

different research stats about total

addressable market and whether things

are growing or Contracting so once I

understand the business I understand

their finances and I understand their

strategy from there I'll look at the

actual evaluation for the stock it's

something I leave later on into the

process because I don't want my earlier

steps to be influenced by whether the

stock is expensive or cheap even though

that is important their number of

methods for doing this at a high level

there's relative valuation which is

looking at multiples things like the

price to earnings multiple EV to a bit

of free cash flow yield things like that

which you can compare historically to

what it's been in the past as well as to

peers to see what related companies or

companies in the same industry are

trading at to see whether you're above

more expensive or below that level the

more detailed approach is an absolute

valuation such as a discounted cash flow

which I do do from time to time for

companies where you actually forecast

all the line items of different

financial statements to forecast their

free cash flow into the future year

discounted to today's price so that you

have an idea of what you should pay

today for that future performance I like

to change the variables to see how the

company's stock price would be in

different circumstances and what's

justified in terms of the Stock's price

I'll also consider the more current

events around the stock recent lawsuits

current headlines press releases which

you can again find on the company's

website and I'll try to understand what

variables in this you know realm are

influencing the current stock price as

it tends to be the more recent stuff

that sways prices in the short term it

doesn't matter much as a long-term

investor but it does help with the entry

point and I do consider some technical

aspects of the stock and more

qualitatively things like whether

management is buying or not but really

at this point if I like the company and

I think the valuation is attractive

relative to what it could potentially

earn then I'll likely be investing at

this step now the problem is that stocks

that have gone through all the previous

sort of filters and steps at this point

tend to be the most expensive you know

the stocks that have great growth track

records great profitability excellent

management all that perfect stuff

uh they tend to be more expensive

because investors recognize that and

they bid up the stock price accordingly

but if the company is not attractively

valued it isn't all for naught at this

point I will simply move it to a watch

list at which point I will monitor it

I've already done the fundamental

research and we'll have more flexibility

to hop into the stock if there's a dip

in the price given a current event I can

quickly analyze the current events see

if it's material or not and then take

advantage of any movements in the stock

price I will also dollar cost average in

companies I really like and generally

speaking that's a sound strategy for

Diversified investors but I always have

an eye on valuation paying too much for

a stock does increase your risk of

capital impairment so I at least want to

ensure that the price on paying is

within a reasonable range so that's a

valuation step and finally step six

we've made it this far is to review and

finalize notes for future reference at

this point I'll have an idea of whether

I want to buy this stock now or wait but

I will also seek answers to fill in the

gaps address those questions that came

up throughout the research process I

also try to play Devil's Advocate and

find conflicting reports about uh say

the thesis I've sort of developed with

this company find opposing opinions to

try and Sanity check some of my

assumptions I also have the benefit of

being able to then share it with my team

who have more experience with

researching stocks and myself and I

typically write up a formal report but

we'll still organize my notes regardless

just so that they're easier to digest in

the future making sure things are bullet

points providing a sort of summary that

I can quickly reference in the future so

I can get up to speed about my company

and the thesis I have for it and also

points I want to follow up on and the

reason why I think this step is really

important is not only because when a

Stock's On Your watch list you can

quickly review things and get back up to

speed up with the company but when times

get tough and you know say something

negative develops about the business

that a lot of people are spooked is

going to challenge their future

performance you can go back and see what

the fundamental business is and what you

believe the value lies in what your

thesis about the company is and that

will make it easier evaluate whether

that has fundamentally changed or if

this new development is just noise that

you can generally ignore and focus again

on the long-term prospects of the

business you've invested in so that's my

investment research process as an

analyst

we made it thank you for sticking to the

end I know I didn't really get into all

the nitty-gritty about the specific

things I look at but that is really out

of respect for my employer they were

gracious enough to let me do this video

they don't have the perfect Krabby Patty

secret formula but uh you know they do

have proprietary stuff that uh it's in

their interest to keep as I've hopefully

highlighted this is an ongoing process

once you've found a stock and especially

once you've invested in it to keep

researching the company not to get

caught up in in the day-to-day

happenings but do regularly review it

and make sure you're not missing

anything so thanks again for joining me

and before I sign off I do want to give

a quick thank you to our sponsor

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thank you guys for joining me today I

hope you found this video helpful if you

did please make sure to like subscribe

all that good stuff it does help the

challenge tremendously and let me know

your thoughts on the research process

both positive and negative genuinely

because I am always trying to improve it

this is not the NLB processes so I'm

always happy to hear feedback thanks

again for joining

see in the next one