【中字】新加坡前外长杨荣文访谈：不是中国不能，而是他们不想！

Summary

The discussion addresses the U.S. view of China as a significant competitor and potential threat to its global dominance. The speaker highlights the importance of understanding China's long history and cultural context to avoid missteps that could lead to conflict. Emphasizing China's non-expansionist nature and historical patience, the conversation contrasts Western perceptions with China's actual strategic approach. The role of Europe in maintaining global balance and the complex issue of Taiwan are also explored, underscoring the need for informed and strategic diplomacy to prevent unnecessary tensions.

Takeaways

• 🌏 The US sees China as its primary global rival and threat to its dominance, which has led to a bipartisan consensus on the need to contain China.
• 🔍 The speaker suggests that the US approach to China is misguided and based on a misunderstanding of China's history and cultural underpinnings.
• 🏛 China is historically not expansionist; its homogeneity and cultural comfort with its own people make the incorporation of non-Chinese people troublesome.
• 🕊️ The speaker, being ethnic Chinese and from Singapore, believes that China does not see the benefit in conquering foreign lands or imposing its values on others.
• 📚 Chinese patience and long-term perspective stem from their deep connection to history, which influences their approach to current affairs.
• 🏙️ The hope for China to adopt Western-style liberal democracy is unrealistic, given its long history of autocratic rule and centralized governance.
• 🌐 Europe's role in the US-China dynamic is significant; maintaining a balanced stance could prevent conflict between the two superpowers.
• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Taiwan is a matter of historical justice for China, and the use of force is not ruled out if unification is obstructed by external forces.
• 🤝 Europe's position on Taiwan should be informed by a deep understanding of history to avoid inadvertently entering a geopolitical minefield.
• 💡 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding China's nature and history to avoid actions that could lead to tragedy.
• 🚀 China's economic growth and opening up are likely to continue, driven by the desire of its people to improve their living standards and the country's potential to become a dominant global economy.

Q & A

What is the current US perspective on China?

The current US perspective views China as a threat to US dominance in the world, rather than a territorial threat.

Why is the US approach to China considered dangerous?

The US approach is considered dangerous because the democratic electorate's passions can get out of control, potentially leading to conflicts, especially if incidents like casualties in the South China Sea occur.

How should the US approach its relationship with China?

The US should understand the nature of the challenge posed by China, considering its history and philosophical underpinnings, to ensure actions lead to success rather than tragedy.

What makes China unique in terms of its civilization and national identity?

China's uniqueness lies in its long civilization and homogeneous population, deeply rooted in its culture, making it a very different civilization compared to regions like Europe.

Why is China not considered an expansionist nation?

China is not considered expansionist because historically, it finds it troublesome to incorporate non-Chinese people into its realm and does not see profit in conquering foreign lands.

What is the Chinese approach to international relations, according to the speaker?

China prefers not to impose its values on others and focuses on solving its own problems rather than trying to solve other nations' problems.

What role does patience play in Chinese civilization?

Chinese patience comes from their long history, where events are viewed within the context of centuries, and actions are often influenced by historical precedents.

How does the speaker view the possibility of China becoming a liberal democracy?

The speaker views the hope of China becoming a liberal democracy as a pipe dream, given its vast land and historically autocratic nature.

What was significant about the 1911 Revolution in China?

The 1911 Revolution in China marked a significant transformation from imperial rule to a republic, leading to major social changes, including the liberation of women.

How does the speaker perceive the future economic development of China?

The speaker believes China's economic development will continue due to the people's desire for a better life, potentially reaching half of US per capita income and having an economy equal to the US and EU combined.

What role does Europe play in the US-China dynamics?

Europe can maintain balance and prevent war between the US and China by not supporting either side in a conflict, requiring a strategic and historical view.

How does China view the US's involvement with Taiwan?

China sees the US's involvement with Taiwan as a potential tactic to keep China divided, which could lead to war if perceived as such, but peace is possible with gradual convergence.

What historical context does China rely on regarding Taiwan?

China relies on the Cairo Declaration and subsequent reaffirmations, which agreed that Taiwan would be restored to China after World War II.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 US-China Relations: A Complex Rivalry

The first paragraph delves into the evolving US-China relationship, highlighting the US's perception of China as a primary rival and potential enemy. It discusses the US's bipartisan support for challenging China's rise, viewing it as a threat to American global dominance rather than territorially. The speaker warns of the dangers of unchecked democratic fervor, particularly in the context of incidents like those in the South China Sea, which could escalate tensions. The paragraph also touches on the importance of understanding China's historical and philosophical context to avoid misguided actions that could lead to tragedy. It emphasizes the need for a nuanced approach to China, recognizing its long-standing civilization and the homogeneity of its large population, which is deeply rooted in its culture, contrary to Western perceptions of China as expansionist.

05:00

📚 Historical Patience and China's Non-Expansionist Nature

In the second paragraph, the discussion centers on China's historical patience and its non-expansionist tendencies. It contrasts Western impatience and aggression with China's long-term perspective, influenced by its deep historical roots. The speaker refutes the notion of China as an authoritarian, expansionist state, arguing that China's size and history make it more conservative and less inclined to impose its values on others. The paragraph also addresses the Chinese Communist Party's role and the unlikelihood of China adopting a Western European model of governance. It highlights China's historical experience as an empire and its short-lived period as a republic, emphasizing the significant social changes, including the liberation of women, that occurred during the 1911 Revolution.

10:01

🌐 Europe's Role in the Sino-American Dynamic

The third paragraph explores Europe's potential role in the geopolitical struggle between China and the US. It positions Europe as a unique entity with its own destiny, distinct from the US, and not inherently at odds with China due to geographical distance. The speaker suggests that Europe's stance could be pivotal in preventing conflict, as neither the US nor China would likely engage in war without European support. The paragraph also touches on the differences in how China and Russia perceive the West, with China distinguishing between Europe and the US, while Russia views them as a united front. The discussion on Taiwan is framed as a matter of historical justice for China, with the speaker cautioning Western supporters of Taiwan to understand the historical context to avoid inadvertently escalating tensions.

Keywords

💡US-China relations

US-China relations refer to the diplomatic, economic, and political interactions between the United States and China. In the video, the speaker discusses how the US perceives China as a threat to its global dominance, leading to a competitive and potentially adversarial relationship. This is evident when the speaker mentions the US's need to 'curb, control, contain China' and the potential for conflict if incidents occur, such as in the South China Sea.

💡Philosophical underpinnings

Philosophical underpinnings refer to the foundational beliefs and principles that shape a society's values and actions. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding China's history and philosophical underpinnings to grasp the nature of the challenge it poses. This is crucial for formulating effective policies and actions towards China, as misunderstandings can lead to tragic outcomes.

💡Cultural homogeneity

Cultural homogeneity is the uniformity in culture among a population. The speaker points out that China's large population of 1.4 billion people is remarkably homogeneous, which is not an accident but deeply rooted in their culture. This homogeneity is contrasted with the diversity found in Europe, highlighting the unique characteristics of Chinese civilization.

💡Expansionism

Expansionism is the policy or practice of extending a country's power or influence through military or economic means. The speaker argues that China is not inherently expansionist, as it finds incorporating non-Chinese people into its society troublesome. This challenges the Western view of China as an aggressive and imperialist power, as seen in the script where the speaker states that China does not see profit in conquering foreign lands.

💡Authoritarian centralized state

An authoritarian centralized state is a political system where power is concentrated in the hands of a few, often a single party or leader. The speaker discusses the perception of China as an authoritarian state, contrasting it with Western democracies. However, the speaker also notes that China's long history and cultural context make it distinct from other authoritarian regimes, such as Russia.

💡Chinese patience

Chinese patience refers to the long-term perspective and strategic thinking attributed to China, often in contrast to the perceived impatience of Western powers. The speaker explains that this patience stems from China's deep historical roots and its conservative, precedent-driven civilization, as seen in the script where the speaker mentions 'for the Chinese, a century is only a page in a book'.

💡1911 Revolution

The 1911 Revolution was a significant historical event in China that ended over two thousand years of imperial rule and led to the establishment of the Republic of China. The speaker highlights the profound changes brought about by this revolution, particularly in terms of women's liberation, which was 'almost unbelievable' given the societal norms of the time.

💡Economic opening of China

The economic opening of China refers to the reforms initiated in 1979 that led to the country's rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy. The speaker predicts that China's economic opening will continue, driven by the desire for a better life and the potential for China's economy to surpass that of the US and EU combined.

💡European role

The European role in the context of the video refers to Europe's potential influence in the geopolitical dynamics between China and the US. The speaker suggests that Europe, with its unique position and history, could play a crucial role in maintaining balance and preventing conflict between the two superpowers.

💡Taiwan

Taiwan is a geopolitical issue discussed in the video, where the speaker differentiates Western and Chinese perspectives on the matter. The speaker points out that for China, Taiwan is a matter of historical justice and part of China, as agreed upon in historical treaties. The speaker also questions Western motivations for supporting Taiwan, suggesting that it may be more about controlling China.

Highlights

The US views China as its main rival and potential enemy, leading to a bipartisan consensus on containing China's rise.

The US perceives China as a threat to its global dominance rather than territorially.

There is a risk of the US democratic process escalating tensions with China, especially if incidents occur like in the South China Sea.

Understanding China's history and philosophical underpinnings is crucial for the US to formulate effective policies.

China's long civilization and large homogeneous population are not accidental but deeply rooted in its culture.

Unlike Western countries, China has a unified literature and set of myths subscribed to by all Chinese people.

China is not expansionist by nature due to the challenges of incorporating non-Chinese people into its civilization.

The Chinese view of the US and Europe is that they are happy for America to play its role without challenging it.

China's approach is to focus on solving its own family problems rather than trying to impose its values on others.

Chinese patience comes from their deep sense of history and the precedents set by past actions.

China has always been autocratic due to the vastness of its land, making Western-style democracy unrealistic.

The 1911 Revolution was the greatest revolution in human history, especially in terms of liberating women.

Chinese women are the most liberated among Asian women due to the 1911 Revolution.

China's economic opening is expected to continue as the Chinese people aspire to improve their living standards.

Europe can play a significant role in maintaining the balance between China and the US, preventing war.

Europe's diversity and historical struggles have contributed more to human civilization than any other continent.

China and Russia have different approaches to viewing the West, with China distinguishing between Europe and the US.

Taiwan is a matter of historical justice for China, with international agreements recognizing it as part of China.

The US and Europe's support for Taiwan could be seen as an attempt to keep China divided, potentially leading to war.

Many European leaders take positions on Taiwan without fully understanding the historical context, risking conflict.

Transcripts

for

of course the US making China it's

number one competitor rival and even

enemy and their sort of you know support

for this idea across the aisle How do

you see the US approach to China what

what what are the problems there what

are the good sides and the bad sides I

think he had to he had to come sooner or

later but in the last five years like

drops of lipus like drops of acid

changing the color of the lpness there's

suddenly a view in the US that China is

a threat not a threat to the US in the

territorial sense but a threat to us

dominance in the world and there's a

mood in the US now that they must

somehow curb Cil control contain China

and if necessary for some go to war with

China and this very dangerous because

the passions of a democratic electorate

can sometimes get out of control if for

instance there's an incident in the

South China Sea and a few dozen US

Sailors would to be killed then Congress

Us Media will react in a way which even

the White House cannot cannot somehow

contain or

moderate I would assume and having

listened to your speech that the US is

probably on a wrong track here from your

perspective and and that they are sort

of getting China wrong what if you were

the president of the US what would you

do

well the the the the most important

thing is to understand the nature of the

challenge and which means understanding

China in his history in his

philosophical underpinnings otherwise if

you if your assumptions are wrong then

your actions may lead not to success but

to tragedy so it's important when we

look at China not just to view

it on the basis of a few snapshots but

one must watch the entire video from his

early Beginnings then his nature reveals

itself and China is a wrong history and

China is a challenge it is

because he has a long

civilization the Chinese

people are the biggest

nationality in history

why has this come to be it wasn't an

accident China with a population 1.4

billion is

92%

hand how can such a large country be so

homogeneous it cannot be by accident it

cannot be because of the policies of one

or two dynasties it is deep in the

culture that

they they're most comfortable among them

El we take Europe Europe has about maybe

half the population of China and we're

in Italy we we in Florence you're are

from Finland each has his history his

Traditions his Heroes is myth but the

whole of China has only one

literature has only one set of myth

which all Chinese people sub subscribe

to and because of the nature of this

civilization has a very

different uh character the Chinese

people are not expansionists not because

they can be expansionist but they find

it Troublesome to incorporate non

Chinese people into the real so what

what what do you say when you hear you

know a lot of westerners people from the

global south or you know the US and

Europe saying that ah you know China is

an authoritarian centralized State you

you know its expansionist or imperialist

just like Russia and we need to decouple

on the rest of what what's your you know

as a Singaporean what's your

reaction well I'm ethnic Chinese

Singapore is stre quarters Chinese so I

think we do have some understanding of

the nature of China I don't think they

they see profit in conquering foreign

lands in incorporating foreign

nationalities into the body politic in

the end it will lead to grief they're

quite happy for the Americans to play

their role not because they don't want

to challenge America but they think that

in the end it will lead to no good

they're too old theyve seen too much to

see benefit in trying to impose their

values on others their approach is this

I have no problems with my family he's a

big family a lot of

problems and your family well good luck

to you know to think that I can help you

solve your family problems is to them

absurd yeah just you cannot solve my

family

problems how about Chinese patience

where where does that come from because

I've you know I always read stories

about oh you know for the Chinese a

centur is only a page in a book kind of

a thing and there seems to be that you

compare that to a lot of other big

Powers around the world a lot of other

powers they can be aggressive they can

be quite quick in their moves you know

the American Century was the last

century but before that it wasn't really

how about China and patience where does

it come from from from a sense of their

own history because this the the dramas

are reenacted on the same Plains along

the same rivers surrounded by the same

mountains and for everything they do

they can't avoid

precedents there's no country on Earth

which is as wed to its own history as

China it's not possible to have any

conversation in China without recurring

references to what has been done in

similar situations in the past that

makes a very conservative civilization

it's always been

autocratic such a vast land cannot be

organized in any other way so the hope

that you can somehow make China in the

image of Western Europe it's a pipe

dream I think you're right and

interesting enough I mean you know I

belong very much to the sort of fukuyama

school end of history and you know I

believed also that you know after the

end of the Cold War all all of us would

revert to Liberal democracy market

economy and globalization and with that

also China there was this feeling but of

course China is a different kettle of

fish it's very much centralized around

the Chinese Communist party and it's

what 88 plus million members and and in

that sense you don't see much change

happening on that front China has a long

history but most of that history is of

China as

uh

an Empire where

legitimacy of the emperor is based on

the male line the ruling house that's

what conferred legitimacy on an emperor

and when he loses the med of heaven then

there's a period of turmoil and the new

Dynasty a new family comes into position

China has a very short experience as a

republic it's only

1911 and that Revolution from Imperial

China the Republican China created

probably in my view the greatest

revolution in human history and the

liberation of women in that

Revolution is almost unbelievable

because everybody had Herms not just the

emperor men had Herms wealthy men and it

was

accepted and women who were in high

society had their feet bound for the

sexual pleasure of men so for all that

to change within the short period was

remarkable and among Asian women if you

compare Chinese women to Japanese to

Korean to Indian to Malay women Chinese

women are the most liberated that was

because of the 1911 Revolution do you

then believe I mean if this getting more

about China than expected but it's

always good with a free flow

conversation so so you take you know

1979 and the opening of of China do you

see this continuing because of course

China has gone from rugs to riches I

mean you talk a lot about it yourself as

well we we've seen it become one of the

biggest economies in the world I think

in the speech you even talked about it

being about you know half of the world's

economy by end 2050 etc etc will opening

of China continue

economically yes because the the Chinese

people want to do better they are right

now per capita maybe 20% us per capita

surely they can reach half of us per

capita by which time the Chinese economy

will be equal to that the US and the EU

combined because of the logic of numbers

and that desire for a better life uh

it's Unstoppable regardless of how it's

governed but when China is well governed

then the infrastructure is in place the

progress will be very very rapid let's

go to Europe and China then you began by

saying that you have a feeling that

Europe could play a B big role so let's

put you now in the first you were in the

shoes of the US president now I put you

in the shoes of of the commission

president uh or european leader what

should Europe do here Europe is a great

experiment in bringing treble Nations

together in the in the

Confederation you need the Western

Alliance with the Americans for a

collective defense but Europe has its

own destiny from Amer America which is

far away which is surrounded by two

oceans I mean Europe is complicated at

one end of Eurasia is always had this

internal

tensions it is not an enemy of China

it's too far away and China can never be

an enemy of Europe so what role does

Europe play in the coming decades in

this Titanic struggle between China and

the us if

Europe maintains the balance there'll be

no war the Americans cannot go into war

with China with Europe not supporting it

good point china cannot go into war with

America with Europe not supporting it

but this

requires a strategic view of Europe not

only

geopolitically but also

historically China may may have been a

very great civilization but Europe in

all its diversity is probably

contributed more to human civilization

than any other Contin

because of his diversity is ceaseless in

term of struggles you know one of the

interesting things is of course if you

look at the way in which China discusses

or pitches the West it separates between

Europe and the US whereas Russia sees

very much the West as you know Europe

and the us together so there's a quite a

sort of fundamental difference in the

approach now You' mentioned the war Word

War a few times times and of course A

lot of it you know again from a

simplistic uh Western View comes to the

question of Taiwan so tell me what's

your take on Taiwan because I think it

might be a little bit different from

what we hear in the west often Taiwan is

only a piece on the geopolitical chest

board many people support uh Taiwan

support Taiwan not because they know

very much about Taiwan or because they

really love Taiwanese people but because

they see it as a way of somehow

controlling uh China keeping China down

it's a way of poking

China but they don't realize that for

China Taiwan is a matter of historical

Justice before the second world war

ended in the Cairo conference which was

attended by Stalin Churchill Roosevelt

and

CH it was already agreed that Taiwan

will be restored to China after the war

and impost time the KIRO Declaration was

reaffirmed so for

China all the Victorious Powers agree

that Taiwan is part of China and is a

matter of time of course they prefer to

be peaceful but they cannot give up the

possibility of the use of force so China

is wondering when the US plays Taiwan is

it your objective to keep us divided

forever if that your objective

then there will be War but if your

objective is gradual

conversions then naturally there'll be

peace now what position does Europe take

but frankly I think many European

leaders take

positions without without knowing the

history and

therefore uh embling into a mind field

without realizing it is a mind

field