ICT - Mastering High Probability Scalping Vol. 2 of 3
Summary
TLDRThis video script discusses mastering high-probability scalping by focusing on daily bias and bank liquidity runs. It explains how to identify optimal trade entry scenarios using daily charts, swing highs, and lows, and emphasizes the importance of waiting for specific criteria to anticipate buying or selling opportunities. The speaker also shares insights on setting realistic trading goals and the potential of achieving consistent profits with a disciplined approach.
Takeaways
- 📊 The video discusses 'Mastering High-Probability Scalping' with a focus on daily bias and bank liquidity runs, using the daily chart for analysis.
- 📈 A bullish stage is identified when a swing high is broken, indicating a future buying opportunity and the need to wait for specific criteria to enter a trade.
- 📉 The criteria for a bullish trade include the formation of a swing low on the daily chart that does not take out a previous recent swing low, followed by a break of the swing high.
- 🔍 Traders should be on alert for a retracement after a swing high is broken, anticipating a buying opportunity when the market finds momentum on the upside.
- 🕊 In a bearish scenario, the strategy involves waiting for a swing low to be broken on the daily chart, setting the stage for a bearish market condition.
- 🔑 Key points for a bearish trade include not breaking a previous swing high immediately before the swing low that has broken a previous swing low.
- 🚀 The importance of waiting for the third candle in a swing high or swing low formation to be traded through on the following day is emphasized for optimal trade entry.
- 🌐 The video mentions that setups may not occur every trading day, but emphasizes the importance of patience and waiting for the market to present opportunities.
- 🎯 The presenter suggests aiming for 25 pips or so per week, which is a realistic and achievable goal for traders, especially when starting out.
- 📉 The concept of 'time and price killzone' is introduced, which involves framing the entry and exit points based on optimal trade entry levels and previous day's highs or lows.
- 📝 The script concludes by highlighting the importance of having a clear strategy and realistic expectations, focusing on consistent returns rather than large, unpredictable gains.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the video 'Mastering High Probability Scalping' volume two?
-The main focus of the video is on the concept of 'previous day bank liquidity runs' and how to implement the daily bias strategy on a daily chart for high probability scalping in trading.
What is meant by 'daily bias' in the context of this video?
-The 'daily bias' refers to a trading strategy where the trader waits for a swing high or swing low to form and be broken on a daily chart, signaling a potential bullish or bearish market condition respectively.
How is a swing high identified in the context of the daily bias strategy?
-A swing high is identified as a candlestick pattern on the daily chart with a lower high to its left and right, and when it is broken, it signals a potential bullish stage.
What criteria should be met for a swing low to be considered in the daily bias strategy?
-A swing low should have a higher low compared to the candlesticks to its left and right, and it should not take out a previous recent swing low, indicating a potential optimal trade entry scenario.
What does the video suggest to do after identifying a swing high or swing low on the daily chart?
-After identifying a swing high or swing low, the video suggests waiting for a retracement and then looking for the third candle to form. The trader should anticipate the high or low of this third candle to be traded through on the very next day.
What is the significance of the third candle in the context of the daily bias strategy?
-The third candle is significant as it completes the swing high or swing low pattern. The trader should anticipate the high of a bullish swing low or the low of a bearish swing high to be traded through on the next trading day.
What is the recommended approach for setting up trades based on the daily bias strategy?
-The recommended approach is to wait for a setup that aligns with the daily bias, focusing on the retracement levels and the optimal trade entry price. The trader should aim for a specific number of pips per week and not force trades.
How does the video address the concern of not getting a setup every single trading day?
-The video acknowledges that not every trading day will have a setup and emphasizes that it's not necessary to trade every day. It suggests focusing on major currency pairs against the dollar, which can provide about three to four solid setups per week.
What is the suggested weekly target for traders using the daily bias strategy?
-The video suggests a realistic target of about 25 pips per week, which is achievable with one or two good setups. It emphasizes the importance of consistency and gradual growth rather than seeking large, unrealistic gains.
How does the video explain the importance of patience and discipline in the daily bias strategy?
-The video emphasizes the need for patience by explaining that setups may not present themselves every day and the importance of discipline by sticking to the strategy's criteria without forcing trades or deviating from the plan.
What is the role of 'kill zones' in the daily bias strategy as discussed in the video?
-The 'kill zones' refer to specific price levels that the trader should aim for when entering a trade. The video suggests using these zones to set realistic expectations for the potential profit from each setup.
Outlines
📊 Mastering High-Probability Scalping with Daily Bias
The video script introduces a strategy for high-probability scalping by focusing on daily bias and bank liquidity runs. It emphasizes the importance of identifying swing highs and lows on a daily chart to anticipate future buying or selling opportunities. The strategy involves waiting for a swing high to be broken to signal a bullish stage and then looking for a swing low that does not violate a recent low as an optimal entry point. The goal is to trade with the market momentum after a short-term high or low has been established, aiming for a retracement that leads to a profitable exit. The script also explains the criteria for a bullish scenario, including the formation of a new high after breaking a swing high and the anticipation of a daily swing low, with the expectation that the market will run through the high of the third candle in a swing low formation.
🐻 Bearish Market Condition and Trading Strategy
This paragraph delves into the bearish aspect of the trading strategy, detailing the process of identifying a bearish market condition by watching for a swing low to be broken on the daily chart. It discusses the importance of not breaking a previous swing high immediately before the swing low is violated. The strategy involves waiting for a retracement after a new low is established and then anticipating a violation of the low on the following trading day. The script provides a clear summary of the steps to identify a bearish scenario, including the formation of a daily swing high that does not break a recent high and the anticipation of the market trading to a new low. It also addresses common concerns about the frequency of setups and emphasizes the importance of patience and discipline in trading, highlighting the realistic goal of achieving 25 to 50 pips per week with a 2% risk per trade.
📈 Optimal Trade Entry and Market Momentum
The script continues with an explanation of how to identify optimal trade entries based on market momentum, focusing on the importance of syncing with the market's natural rhythm. It suggests that Tuesdays and Wednesdays are typically the best days for trading, as they often set the tone for the week's price action. The speaker shares a personal approach to trading, preferring to achieve the weekly objective within a few days to avoid unnecessary risk. The paragraph illustrates the concept with a practical example from a daily chart, showing how to identify a swing low and high and how to anticipate market movements based on these formations. It also introduces the concept of 'kill zones' and how to use them in conjunction with optimal trade entry levels to maximize trading opportunities.
🎯 Targeting Profitable Scalping Opportunities
The final paragraph discusses the practical application of the scalping strategy, focusing on the importance of setting realistic profit targets and understanding market probabilities. It emphasizes the significance of identifying key price levels, such as previous day's highs, and using them as targets for trades. The speaker shares personal insights on how to approach trading with a conservative mindset, aiming for consistent profits rather than chasing large, uncertain gains. The paragraph also touches on the psychological aspect of trading, encouraging traders to develop an expectancy for consistent returns and to frame their trading career around achievable weekly profit goals. It concludes by reiterating the importance of focusing on 20-25 pips per setup and the feasibility of achieving a 50 pip net return per week as a developing trader.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Scalping
💡Daily Bias
💡Swing High
💡Swing Low
💡Retracement
💡Trade Entry
💡Liquidity Runs
💡Support and Resistance Levels
💡Pips
💡Market Structure
💡Optimal Trade Entry
Highlights
Introduction to volume two of a three-part series on mastering high-probability scalping strategies.
Focus on previous day bank liquidity runs and daily bias in trading.
Explanation of identifying a bullish stage by breaking a swing high on a daily chart.
Criteria for a bullish scenario including a retracement and a daily swing low formation.
Importance of not breaking a recent swing low after a swing high is broken.
Anticipating the third candle's high to be traded through the next day in a bullish setup.
Daily swing low criteria and its relation to a potential optimal trade entry scenario.
Setting up for a bearish market condition by breaking a swing low on a daily chart.
Waiting for a retracement and a violation of the swing low in a bearish scenario.
Emphasis on not breaking a previous swing high before a swing low is broken for a bearish setup.
The concept of 'kill zones' in identifying optimal trade entry and exit points.
Dealing with the reality of not having a setup every single trading day.
Statistical approach to finding setups with three to four solid opportunities per week.
Risk management strategy involving 2% of account risk for potential weekly gains.
Objective of doubling the account or making 6% compounded monthly with realistic pip targets.
Preference for trading on Tuesdays and Wednesdays for achieving weekly objectives.
Example of a scalping trade using the daily chart and 15-minute time frame.
Using session highs and lows to frame price action and identify trade setups.
Concept of aiming for 25 pips per setup and the rationale behind it.
The idea of setting realistic expectations for weekly gains and the benefits of consistency.
Final thoughts on focusing on a few good setups per week for a sustainable trading approach.
Transcripts
okay folks welcome back this is volume
two of three for mastering high
probability scalping we're focusing on
previous day bank liquidity runs alright
so we'll be reviewing the daily bias so
we everyone knows exactly what should be
done and I'm referring to a daily chart
here so when we're implementing the
daily bias what we're gonna be doing is
on a daily chart we're gonna be waiting
for a swing high to form and to be
broken this will be bullish okay when we
see a swing high broken in other words a
candle that has a lower high to the left
of it and then lower high to the right
of it as seen here okay if at any time
in the future its traded through when we
have that we have a bullish stage in
other words we anticipate a future
buying opportunity doesn't mean to buy
it right there just means we are now on
an alert to wait for a specific criteria
criteria is going to be looking for a
swing low to form down here okay a swing
low again is a candle that has a higher
load to the left of it and a higher load
to the right of it again on the daily
chart key point here is this swing low
should not take out a previous recent
swing low okay so if we have this
criteria immediately after a heist
broken we have the probable optimal
trade entry scenario by itself on a
daily chart okay doesn't mean it has to
line up with a 62 - sometimes at Racing
level it just means that we are in
effect trading with a higher
after breaking a short-term high so we
have a break-in market structure a
retracement so therefore the market
should have an ability to find momentum
on the upside okay when the swing low
forms we're going to be anticipating the
third candle that is this one here it's
high to be rated or traded through the
very next day so in other words the next
trading day where it opens preferably
you want to see it open below the third
candle the swing lows high
okay so here's your criterion you want
to see the swing low form without
breaking a previous swing low
immediately after a swing high is formed
but breaking a previous swing high ok so
again the stage for a bullish scenario
is anytime I swing high is broken and
traded to a new high expect a
retracement wait for a daily swing low
to form swing low should be a higher
swing load in any recent previous
short-term swing low the third candle
that makes the swing low that high you
want to see the next candle open below
that candle is high and then anticipate
the market to run through this candle is
high we're looking for previous day's
highs to be rated each day until a swing
high when a daily forms or price reaches
a key support or resistance level and
I'll give you an example what that would
be well the immediate candle after this
particular day's formation may be
looking for a bullish scenario okay
either in London or the New York
scenario to a raid on the previous day's
high the very next trading day we would
look for the same scenario again looking
for reasons to be bullish on a
retracement lower going higher reaching
for ultimately to this old high this
would be an area of resistance okay
or if it trades to that high and through
it we'd still maintain looking for
bullish scenarios buying looking for
previous day's highs to be taken out or
if we have price rally up to a degree
either at this level or before it in
creating a swing high once that forms we
have to wait for that swing high to be
broke on the upside okay there's going
to be a lot of missed opportunities
admittedly with this but it gives you a
specific criteria on the work within ok
employing the daily bias this is when
it's bearish and we waiting again on the
daily chart for a swing low on a daily
to be broken so we have a swing low here
again a daily candle that has a higher
low to the left of it and a higher low
to the right of it eventually as price
trades through this this break in market
structure it sets the stage for a
bearish market condition okay so we're
kind of like alerted to waiting for a
sell scenario we wait for a retracement
when we get the daily swing high formed
the third can look at it makes a swing
high we're going to anticipating that
low to be violated the very next trading
day key point is we don't want to see
this swing high break a previous swing
high immediately before the swing low
that has broken a previous swing low
okay so what we're doing is we're
looking for a swing low broken here so
now we have the ability to see the
market trade to a new a new low then it
retraces but will not break a swing high
so now we're getting net three quarter
back retracement okay so by itself it's
like an optimal trade entry doesn't have
to be 260 to 270 I'm searching some
level it's better if it does but it
doesn't require it you want to see the
market trade up until it creates a daily
swing high when that third candle forms
at its close very next trading day
you'll be watching for price to make an
attempt to trade through this candles
low and that remains the bias each
trading day until I swing low forms or
we trade down to this old low okay or
another signifigant low so again
summary its we're looking for a swing
low to form on the daily chart and then
it be broken then we're looking for a
swing high to form but does not break a
recent swing high so here's a swing high
that doesn't come back the clear or
break a previous swing high when to
swing high forms we anticipate the third
daily candle in the swing high right
here we look for its load to be rated or
traded through the following day and we
look for the previous day's low to be
rated each day until a new swing low on
a daily forms or price reaches a key
support resistance level now you're not
going to have a set up every single
trading day okay I've gotten a lot of
emails so far since I've produced a
first volume of this three-part series
and the common complaint I'm getting is
I'm not getting a setup every day and
it's not been promised okay if you look
at every major that's paired against the
dollar you can get about three to four
solid setups per week now that means
that you're probably not going to get us
up every single trading day chances are
one pair among all the ones that are
available will provide you a set up to
study so you can practice in your demo
account with it the emphasis is for you
to remember that you'd only need about
25 pips or so per week and if you risk
2% of your account and it may be high
admittedly for some of you but if you
have grown in your understanding about
what I'm teaching and you're willing to
risk 2% it takes a little bit less than
25 pips per week to double your
or make 6% compounded monthly and I
think that's the objective that folks
should be looking for when you're new
because it's realistic it's low but yet
it still doubles the account over the
course of a twelvemonth year so if we're
looking for one good set up that would
yield that 25 pips or so you only need
one scalp one set up that does that now
I started the current teaching week on
Twitter kind of building the idea of
making 50 pips per week if you frame
your scalps in such a way that it allows
you to aim for 25 pips you only really
need to set up for a week don't you now
I like that model personally because
it's very close to what I do as a
short-term or intraday trader I know the
likelihood is I want to be trading on
Tuesdays and Wednesdays if I can get my
entire weekly objective which is 50 to
75 pips per week if I can get that done
in one day then I won't do any more
trading after that regardless of what
day of the week it is but usually I hone
in on Tuesday and Wednesday because
they're primarily the best days whether
bullish or bearish if it's bullish for
the week then I'm looking for the weekly
low to form around Tuesday or Wednesday
is New York open if I can anticipate a
lower close or weekly bearish candle I'm
shooting with an expectation that we're
gonna be seeing lower prices by Friday's
close relative to Sunday's opening then
I'll be looking for Tuesday or Wednesday
--zz price action to create the high of
the week so if I can train and sync with
that idea
it also formulates a lot more conviction
and confidence behind the setups that
I'm looking to trade especially with
what's being described here it's a
rather simplistic approach it may have
been an oversimplification on my part by
way of creating this diagram but from an
internal standpoint how I view the
market place this is what I'm looking
for
so if I see them daily chart chances are
the daily chart will probably sustain
the move for a few days and you'll only
need one trading day okay so if you
having a scenario that's bullish or
bearish relative to what I just
described here so far in this video
chances are you you're probably gonna
have one day's worth of momentum and
that's all you need so every single pair
does not move lockstep to one another
they're not always moving in tandem so
what may be a good parent trade today
may not be a pair that's really good to
trade tomorrow but another pair may move
in equal or better fashion in other
words the setups are plenty but you have
to allow them to be presented in price
action from the daily chart and then not
forcing it let's take a look over at the
charts I'll give you an example of what
it looks like and we can use the kill
zones okay we're looking at the table
this is a daily chart this stroll
through just family random place it
doesn't make a difference where we start
out but I want you to take a look at the
price action here and we're going to
look at this swing low right here and
it's on the heels of a previous
short-term high okay so we have a
short-term high here lower high to the
left lower high to the right highest
high in the middle it breaks that okay
so now we're on a buy watch for scalping
this is a swing high that's broken and
we have to wait for a swing low to form
after this is broken so we're gonna be
anticipating a retracement after this
run-up says price starts to drop down
we have a preliminary swing low here
okay so this candle is the third one we
need to make sure we wait for price to
trade through this candle is high the
very next day it doesn't do that okay
now we have another candle form a
potential swing low here so this candle
here we have to wait for this candle is
high to be traded through very next
candle it doesn't do it it does it here
so now we can be a buyer here with a
Scout running previous day's high which
is this one okay so one July 24th 2017
that high again coming in at 130 57
that's where the liquidity run is going
to be right there this candle on the
25th of July is where we'll be looking
for the set up right there okay and
we're going to drop down into a smaller
time frame we use a 15-minute time frame
okay and I'll scrunch this up the day
dividers in you guys can see it so
previous day's high is right here so
I'll put a horizontal line on the chart
to facilitate that okay so here's where
the liquidity is we're running for 30 57
okay this day here we're looking for a
scenario to get long to run that liquidy
pool okay and we have this again it's
the liquidly poor wrist we're reaching
for previous day's high on this trading
day when I use the market
sessions I'm looking for London setups
and newer setups primarily this is a
London session low and I'll let you see
that here that's in London and we're
gonna use that as I mentioned in the
volume one I use session highs and lows
and this is the highest portion of the
day in terms of a 15 minute candle you
just put it right here you guys can see
it so I'm using this one and this one
framing the entire price moon so as
price starts this day here I'm not
concerned about anything until it gets
down into the optimal trade entry 62%
tracing level respectively 70.5 and 79%
okay you can see it price trades it hits
it here this candle comes in exactly
9:45 that's London and we're going into
a nice run into previous day's high okay
so you can see that was a nice little
scalp it offered as much as 10 20 30 40
pips to get to the high and if we look
for 10 to 20 pips of a sweep above this
high it takes us 10 20 here so 20 pips
40 pips 60 pips 70 pips or so in terms
of potential price range that in itself
is it for the week for me that would be
it why wouldn't you do anything else and
it's hard to believe but that's how I
operate
I don't look for a whole lot of setups
per week cuz I'm content with you know
doing one thing well and there it is now
if this were a more conservative
approach you could be looking for the
long down here based on the alcohol
trade entry and reaching just to the old
high now if that's the case say you're
filled at well just rounded to one
thirty twenty that again is getting out
at 57
it's 37 pips or so okay almost 40 pips
with us say 40 pips you only need to do
one more trade for the week for 10 pips
to get a 50 pip net return for the week
now there's a lot of folks that will say
don't set targets don't set goals for
daily or weekly because you don't know
what the markets going to do well I
would submit that that's partially true
we don't know with any assurity what the
markets going to do but we do have
pretty strong probabilities of wherever
the market may reach for and if we can
frame the idea of where we're trying to
get in at based on time and price
killzone and such a optimal trade entry
price and where we're reaching for it
doesn't that not offer us a definitive
way of determining what could be
reasonably expected for that particular
setup and if we know that we're looking
at intraday setup like this there's
typically five days per week unless it's
a holiday or the markets are not trading
because of some other bank holiday or
whatever we don't want to trade it we
can see many instances where 25 to 50
pips is rather easy to get now it's when
we get into the I want to make 250 to
500 pips per week then it becomes a
little daunting in terms of a task so I
think by focusing on 20-25 pips per
setup in an aiming for two good ones per
week I think 50 pips is a really low
hanging fruit reachable achievable and
certainly realistic in the scope of a
developing trader will you get it every
week no will you get it right out the
gate starting using my concepts no but
over time you will eventually grow into
that in an expectancy for a nice return
of 50 pips per week you can frame your
entire career on that
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