Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff Talks Markets | Bloomberg Talks
Summary
TLDREn este podcast, Ken Rogoff, profesor de economía en la Universidad de Harvard, y David Weston discuten las presiones políticas que enfrentan los bancos centrales, especialmente la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos. Se aborda la influencia de la Fed en las tasas de interés a largo plazo y cómo factores globales y políticos podrían afectar la inflación y la economía. Rogoff sugiere que la independencia de la Fed podría estar en peligro y que las tasas de interés podrían permanecer más altas de lo esperado, afectando el crecimiento económico y la política fiscal.
Takeaways
- 📈 La FED se prepara para una decisión a corto plazo, pero es crucial considerar las tasas de interés a largo plazo.
- 🔍 Las tasas de interés a largo plazo son probablemente más altas de lo que se pensaba y pueden influir en las decisiones a corto plazo de la FED.
- 💡 La FED tiene una influencia limitada sobre las tasas de interés reales a largo plazo, ya que estas siguen las tendencias del mercado internacional.
- 🏛️ Las presiones políticas pueden afectar la independencia de la FED, aunque de manera más sutil que explícita.
- 🌐 Factores como la globalización y la deunionización han facilitado el control de la inflación por parte de la FED en el pasado, pero estas tendencias están cambiando.
- 📉 Es posible que veamos picos ocasionales de inflación, aunque la FED podría reducirla al 2% temporalmente.
- ⚠️ Un posible gobierno de Trump podría intentar influir en la FED, pero los mercados podrían reaccionar negativamente a cualquier intento de quitarle independencia.
- 🔄 Si se redujera la independencia de la FED, los inversores podrían ponerse nerviosos y las expectativas de inflación podrían aumentar.
- 💸 Las tasas de interés reales más altas significarían un mayor costo de endeudamiento para el gobierno y los individuos.
- 🔮 El crecimiento económico podría verse afectado por tasas de interés más altas a largo plazo, dependiendo de los factores subyacentes como la deuda pública y las nuevas tecnologías.
Q & A
¿Qué es lo que se discute en la conversación diaria de Wall Street Week sobre los bancos centrales?
-Se discute sobre las presiones políticas que enfrentan los bancos centrales, especialmente en el contexto de las decisiones a corto plazo que tomará la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (FED) durante su reunión de dos días.
¿Quién es Ken Rogoff y qué papel desempeña en la conversación?
-Ken Rogoff es un profesor de economía de la Universidad de Harvard y presidente de la economía internacional. Participa en la conversación para ofrecer su perspectiva sobre las tasas de interés a largo plazo y cómo se relacionan con las decisiones de la FED.
¿Cuál es la relación entre las decisiones a corto plazo de la FED y las tasas de interés a largo plazo?
-Las tasas de interés a largo plazo pueden estar más altas de lo que la FED prevé, lo que podría afectar su objetivo de tasa de interés. La FED debe tener en cuenta la posibilidad de que las tasas a corto plazo también se muevan hacia arriba.
¿Cuál es la influencia de la FED sobre las tasas de interés a largo plazo?
-La FED tiene una influencia limitada sobre las tasas de interés a largo plazo, que siguen las corrientes de los mercados internacionales. La política de easing cuantitativo puede tener un efecto en las tasas a largo plazo, pero es arriesgado debido a los posibles aumentos en los costos cuando las tasas suben.
¿Cómo la globalización y otros factores macroeconómicos han influido en la inflación y en las decisiones de la FED?
-La globalización, la prudencia fiscal y la desunionización han ayudado a la FED a reducir la inflación y mantener un crecimiento decente. Sin embargo, estos factores están cambiando, lo que podría hacer más difícil para la FED controlar la inflación en el futuro.
¿Qué cambios en la política fiscal y económica podrían afectar la independencia de la FED?
-La política fiscal ha tomado un giro hacia el expansionismo, y la globalización se ha ralentizado o podría invertirse, lo que podría aumentar la presión sobre la FED y afectar su capacidad para mantener la inflación bajo control.
¿Cómo podría la presión política, especialmente de figuras como Donald Trump, afectar a la FED y su enfoque en la inflación actual?
-La presión política puede influir en la independencia de la FED y su enfoque en la inflación, aunque Rogoff sugiere que la FED podría manejar la inflación en este ciclo, se esperarían más picos ascendentes en la inflación en el futuro.
¿Qué impacto tendría la pérdida de independencia de la FED en la economía y en los mercados financieros?
-La pérdida de independencia de la FED podría hacer que los inversores se vuelvan inquietos, aumentar las expectativas de inflación y afectar negativamente al valor del dólar.
¿Cómo las tasas de interés reales a largo plazo podrían afectar el costo del préstamo para el gobierno y los individuos?
-Las tasas de interés reales a largo plazo más altas aumentarían el costo de préstamo, lo que podría tener un impacto en las decisiones de gasto del gobierno y en las finanzas personales.
¿Cómo podrían las tasas de interés a largo plazo más altas afectar el crecimiento económico?
-Las tasas de interés a largo plazo más altas podrían tener un impacto negativo en el crecimiento económico si están impulsadas por un aumento en el endeudamiento gubernamental y privado. Sin embargo, si están impulsadas por avances tecnológicos y productividad, podrían ser un indicador de crecimiento económico.
¿Qué cambios se esperan en la política monetaria de la FED en respuesta a los cambios en las tasas de interés a largo plazo y la inflación?
-Se espera que la FED reevalúe sus estrategias y reconsidere sus tasas de interés objetivo, teniendo en cuenta las tasas de interés a largo plazo que podrían permanecer altas por un tiempo más largo de lo esperado.
Outlines
📉 Influencia de las tasas de interés a largo plazo en la política monetaria
El primer párrafo discute la influencia de las tasas de interés a largo plazo en las decisiones de la Reserva Federal, especialmente en el contexto de las reuniones de la FED y las expectativas de sus decisiones a corto plazo. Ken Rogoff, profesor de economía en la Universidad de Harvard, sugiere que las tasas a largo plazo podrían ser más altas de lo que la FED anticipa, y que esto podría afectar su objetivo de tasa de interés. Rogoff también menciona que la influencia de la FED en las tasas a largo plazo es limitada, y que factores como la globalización y la falta de conflictos han tenido un impacto más significativo en la inflación que cualquier banco central. Además, se discute la independencia de la FED y cómo las presiones políticas pueden afectar su capacidad para manejar la inflación a largo plazo.
🏛 Presiones políticas y su impacto en la independencia de la FED
El segundo párrafo explora las posibles consecuencias de una interferencia política en la independencia de la FED, especialmente en relación con las rumores sobre las intenciones del presidente Trump si fuera reelegido. Se sugiere que, aunque no se espera un cambio drástico en la independencia de la FED, las presiones políticas pueden tener un impacto sutil pero significativo en la gestión de la inflación y las tasas de interés. Rogoff argumenta que cualquier intento de reducir la independencia de la FED podría resultar en una reacción negativa de los mercados, lo que podría aumentar las expectativas de inflación y afectar el valor del dólar. Además, se discuten las implicaciones de una mayor tasa de interés real para el costo del préstamo tanto para el gobierno como para los individuos, y cómo esto podría afectar el crecimiento económico a largo plazo.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Tasas de interés a largo plazo
💡Reserva Federal (FED)
💡Inflación
💡Globalización
💡Política fiscal
💡Independencia del FED
💡Quantitative easing (QE)
💡Donald Trump
💡Tasa de interés real
💡Mercados internacionales
Highlights
Daily Wall Street week conversation focusing on political pressures facing central banks.
Ken Rogoff, Harvard University professor, discusses long-term interest rates and the Federal Reserve's short-term decisions.
Rogoff suggests the Fed's target for long-term interest rates might be higher than previously thought.
Discussion on the Fed's limited influence over long-term interest rates due to international market flows.
Quantitative easing's role in influencing long-term interest rates through treasury debt management.
Political pressures on the Fed and their impact on its independence and budget.
Rogoff's view that globalization and fiscal prudence contributed to a period of easier inflation control.
The potential for higher average inflation due to reversing globalization and fiscal policies.
Rogoff's belief that the Fed might bring down inflation to 2% but with more upward spikes.
Concerns about the impact of political figures, including Donald Trump, on the Fed's independence.
The possibility of the market applying brakes if the Fed's independence is threatened.
Rogoff's thoughts on the real interest rate's potential increase and its implications for borrowing costs.
The impact of higher real interest rates on government and individual borrowing.
Distinguishing between the effects of high long-term interest rates driven by borrowing versus productivity and technology.
Rogoff's final thoughts on the challenges the Fed faces in managing inflation and interest rates amidst changing economic conditions.
Transcripts
Bloomberg audio Studios podcasts radio
news all right it's time now for our
daily Wall Street week conversation and
today we're taking a look at political
pressures facing central banks joining
us now I'm pleased to say we have Ken
Rog off he is Harvard University
professor of economics and chair of
international economics along of course
with Wall Street weeks David Weston
David a timely conversation as the FED
kicks off its two-day meeting yeah
exactly we're about to hear from the FED
what they're going to do the short term
but we want to take a longer term look
as well what's going on interests and
Ken thanks so much for being with us you
have a paper out co-authored with other
people from Brookings talking about
those long-term interest rates first of
all given the fact we're going to have
the FED make a more short-term decision
presumably this week how does that fit
with the long-term interest rates how
should the FED be taking into account
some of what you say about long-term
interest
rates well long-term interest rates are
probably higher or as far as the eye can
see and it probably means their our star
what they think of what's their target
is uh higher than they've been thinking
and some of them still seem to be
thinking uh it collapsed after the
financial crisis and there's been some
reversion to mean we've seen it in the
long rates and I'm not sure the fed's
entirely figured out that some of that
will happen with the short rates as well
so I think one fed Governor said we we
thought we had two feet on the brakes
but maybe we only have one
because interest rates aren't as high as
they seem how much influence does the
Federal Reserve have over long-term
interest rates one of the things I took
from your paper at least is that we had
a period of low inflation but it may
have been for forces much larger than
any Central Bank it had to do with
things like globalization and some
what's going on unions and some of the
lack of conflicts how much influence
does the FED have over long-term
interest
rates well uh T there are two parts
long-term interest rates there's the
real interest rate and I think the fed's
long-term influence is actually very
limited it follows the flows of
international markets yeah quantitative
easing matters because of the treasury
issues lots of short-term debt and very
little long-term debt or the FED helps
it do that that lowers long-term
interest rates but it's risky because as
we've seen when interest rates go up it
can cost the US a lot of money on infl
I mean I think of course the fed's heart
is in the right place but it's hard to
be a uh island of technocratic
Tranquility in the middle of a sea of
political turmoil the FED is
independent but you know the governors
get appointed the FED share gets
appointed uh over the long run they can
control the fed's budget a lot of
perimeters around its regulation and
political pressures matter I mean they
don't have to be so crude as I'm sure
you're going to ask me about Donald
Trump and some of the proposals but I
think in in more subtle ways they matter
and as you say there was this long
period of
globalization uh fiscal Prudence
Washington consensus deunionization I'm
not praising that but it made it easier
for the FED to bring down inflation and
maintain decent growth everything's
going into reverse uh certainly fiscal
policy's long gone into reverse uh
globalization is at least slowed down
might be going to reverse a number of
other factors and uh it's going to be
harder I think for those reasons and my
co-authors uh uh uh Hassan Marina and
Pierre uh all think that we're going to
have an average higher inflation now to
be clear I'm not saying the fed's not
going to bring inflation down to 2% this
time I think it might but we're going to
see more upwards spikes like we had over
the pandemic on occasion and not so much
these long periods of deflation well
you're right we are definitely going to
get to that Wall Street Journal
reporting about of course Donald Trump
and what uh influence he might seek to
have over the FED but let's just
complete the thought on maybe and when
it comes to inflation and of course that
decades long shift to lower inflation
That central banks in the FED had less
to do with it than maybe commonly
thought if that's the case when you
think about the inflation that we're
dealing with now should that realization
if true impacts how they're approaching
the current inflation that that is in
the
economy well they did a great job but
they had the wind at their backs now
they're running into the wind and it's
harder um you know I I think here the
big issue is not simply the embedded
inflation but where is the long-term
real interest rate going to go in other
words how high a Fed funds rate do we
need to get the right real interest rate
they'd been thinking I think for a long
time half a percent real interest rate
uh and maybe that's right but there's
little question the long rates have gone
up and even after the FED unwinds its
interest rate hikes I think they're
going to stay high for a very long time
and so maybe interest rates aren't as
tight as they think and I'm sure that
kind of conversation going through the
halls of the Federal Reserve now they
just have to be rethinking things so Ken
let's go to that question about the
reporting about what perhaps president
Trump might do if he were reelected it
is reporting and the Trump Camp
specifically has not said that's where
they're headed but if in fact there was
a move by a new Trump Administration to
really really take away from the
independence of Federal Reserve how much
difference would it make because it
sounds like you think there's going to
be pressure on not just the FED but
other central banks no matter what
happens yes I do um so it won't be as
crude as the rumors that we're hearing
about uh from president Trump I don't
think we're going to go to the extremes
of turkey where president eruan kept
firing his Central Banker every other
year when they tried to raise the
interest rate I don't think we're going
to get there but almost no matter who's
in power they're looking for ways to uh
try to loosen monetary I the
progressives have ideas for taking away
fed Independence too uh they're not at
the tip of the tongue of President Biden
or Jared Bernstein and his advisers but
they are ideas floating out there and
the thing is is it it's not going to
work very well I mean it's going to be
obvious that it's not working if you
take away fed Independence investors are
going to get jittery inflation
expectations are going to go up the
dollar is going to tank so happily for
better for worse maybe I think markets
will throw a pretty cold bucket of water
on the president if he tries to do that
I don't think he would go to that
extreme but it's clear you know he wants
to be disruptor in Chief and uh it
probably irritates him that how gets so
much attention at his press conferences
so markets there would apply the brakes
in that scenario which of course still
being reported out details unclear so we
won't go too far into the hypotheticals
but let's talk a little bit more about
real interest rates if we do enter into
this environment where you have these
episodic spikes of inflation what would
sustainably higher real interest rates
mean for this economy when you think
about the potential Ripple
effects well I think it really comes in
uh the cost of borrowing for the
government for individuals so remember
you know inflation's also driving up tax
revenues it's also uh driving up wages
and salaries but the real interest rates
you know they're there to stay they're
they're the wedge between the two and uh
this world you know there's this period
where you were just a sucker not to
borrow as much as possible whether it
was to buy a larger house whether it was
to fund new government programs Etc and
I think you know we live in a more
normal world now I I'm not saying I'm
telling you what interest rates are
going to be for the next 20 years but
but what I am saying is I think on
average they're going to be a lot higher
than they were uh after the global
financial crisis Ken one last Quick One
if I could what does it do to growth if
we have longer longterm interest
rates well we've had long-term interest
rates a lot higher for a long time and
had better growth than we have now uh it
sort of depends on what's going on I
think to the extent it's driven by huge
government borrowing private borrowing
ing it's clearly a negative you're just
paying a risk premium to borrow to the
extent it's driven by Ai and
productivity and wondrous new
technologies then obviously High rates
just go hat in hand uh maybe there's
some of both all right got to leave it
there but really enjoyed this
conversation our big thanks of course to
Ken rogoff of Harvard University a great
uh setup big questions heading into
tomorrow's Central Bank Meeting
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