ICT 2026 Market Commentary \ March 25, 2026

Summary

In this detailed market update, the instructor provides an in-depth analysis of currency pairs, precious metals, crude oil, and U.S. indices, emphasizing the importance of risk management and patience. Highlighting key levels, volume imbalances, and fair value gaps, he explains potential price movements while cautioning against trading during volatile or manipulated conditions. Geopolitical events and seasonal tendencies are also discussed as factors that could override technical signals. Students are encouraged to focus on practice trades, learning market structure, and preserving capital rather than chasing profits. The session blends technical insight, macro commentary, and teaching philosophy to guide informed, disciplined trading.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker will be away from X (formerly Twitter) for a few weeks due to observance of Resurrection week and personal commitments, including helping friends.
• 😀 Market analysis will be limited during this period, and the speaker encourages viewers to focus on learning and practicing through demo trading instead of risking money.
• 😀 The dollar index is experiencing fluctuations, with a potential for further retracement lower if certain price levels are breached, which may influence EUR/USD and GBP/USD movements.
• 😀 The speaker highlights the importance of volume imbalances and fair value gaps in predicting future price actions, though market conditions are challenging to read currently.
• 😀 The Eurodollar market is complicated with conflicting price action and multiple imbalances. The speaker suggests focusing on lower timeframes like 1-minute and 5-minute charts for trading opportunities.
• 😀 The speaker advises avoiding trading in the current market environment due to high risk, especially during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, like those involving Iran and the U.S.
• 😀 Seasonal tendencies suggest that the market could be due for a reversal, but the speaker stresses the need for caution as unpredictable events could change the situation rapidly.
• 😀 The speaker warns against trading gold and silver markets, as they are heavily manipulated and driven by geopolitical events, which could result in significant risk to traders.
• 😀 The speaker points out the current manipulation in the commodities markets, like gold and silver, and advises traders to avoid these markets due to their unpredictable nature and heavy institutional involvement.
• 😀 Crude oil markets are being affected by geopolitical tensions, particularly the situation in Iran. The speaker advises caution, as price movements can be easily swayed by news and political agendas.
• 😀 The speaker mentions the looming impact of rising fuel prices, emphasizing the increasing cost of living and how these prices affect everyday consumers globally, with a specific mention of Australia as a testing ground for potential global trends.

Q & A

What is the primary reason the speaker is taking a break from X (formerly Twitter)?

The speaker is taking a break from X to observe the resurrection of Jesus Christ, as well as to help some friends. Due to these personal commitments, they won't be able to actively comment on market events for a few weeks.

What market condition is the speaker focusing on with the Dollar Index chart?

The speaker is observing the Dollar Index chart and analyzing the potential for a further retracement. They mention a volume imbalance and an inversion fair value gap, suggesting that if the price drops below certain levels, there could be further downside pressure on the dollar.

How does the speaker describe the market conditions for Euro Dollar?

The speaker describes the Euro Dollar market as conflicted, with many wicks on the chart making it difficult to read. They are looking for a potential move lower, but acknowledge that the situation is complex due to external factors like geopolitical tensions.

Why does the speaker caution against trading during the upcoming weeks?

The speaker advises against trading during the upcoming weeks due to low market volume and the upcoming religious observances. They are concerned that impulsive trading decisions could lead to significant losses, especially for inexperienced traders.

What does the speaker mean by 'inversion fair value gap'?

An 'inversion fair value gap' refers to a situation where a market level is treated as a price imbalance or gap that could signal a shift in the market's direction. The speaker expects this gap to potentially act as a resistance level if price moves above it, signaling a reversal.

What is the speaker's stance on the current geopolitical climate and its potential impact on the markets?

The speaker suggests that geopolitical events, particularly related to Iran and U.S. politics, could significantly influence the market. They allude to possible manipulation of markets by political figures and financial institutions, warning traders about the unpredictable nature of these events.

How does the speaker approach teaching trading during uncertain market conditions?

The speaker emphasizes caution and self-preservation, advising their students to focus on practicing trading in demo accounts rather than taking real risks in uncertain market conditions. They stress that learning and experience are more important than making profits in such times.

What are the speaker's views on gold and silver markets?

The speaker expresses skepticism towards trading gold and silver, describing them as manipulated markets influenced by major financial institutions. They suggest these markets are highly event-driven and risky, making them less ideal for most traders.

Why does the speaker mention the concept of 'conspiracy theories' in relation to the financial markets?

The speaker hints at potential political and financial agendas, such as the idea that the appointment of a new Fed chair could lead to positive news and a boost in markets. They are critical of how these events may be used to manipulate public sentiment and market prices.

What advice does the speaker give about trading the S&P 500 (ES) and other markets?

The speaker advises caution when trading the S&P 500, noting that the market is currently in a range and subject to manipulation. They mention the potential for an inversion fair value gap to develop, which could indicate a shift in market direction. The speaker emphasizes being selective and waiting for clear, strong setups before making any trades.