Watch For This On NVIDIA - NVDA Stock, SPY, QQQ Update

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the presenter discusses the current market outlook for Nvidia, emphasizing that the stock has lost momentum and may continue a bearish trend. Despite some recent flat performance, the presenter highlights a potential resistance zone around 1745 and anticipates further downward movement unless a breakout occurs. Technical analysis suggests Nvidia may stabilize around the 169-170 range, but a larger drop to retest previous all-time highs is possible. The broader market, including the QQQ and SPY, is also examined, with a divergence noted between SPY and QQQ.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia stock is currently flat after hours, showing little movement following Broadcom's earnings report.
• 😀 The overall sentiment for Nvidia is bearish in the short-term due to lost momentum, despite some minor price fluctuations.
• 😀 Nvidia is expected to hold around the 169-170 range for a while, but it faces strong resistance at around 1745.
• 😀 A rising channel or bearish flag pattern is forming, which suggests a potential decline after a small push higher.
• 😀 If Nvidia breaks above 1745 and turns it into support, the outlook could shift to a more bullish perspective.
• 😀 The broader market shows divergence between SPY (S&P 500 ETF) making new highs, while QQQ (NASDAQ ETF) lags slightly.
• 😀 The video creator's base case is that Nvidia could retest previous all-time highs, though this will take time and may happen slowly.
• 😀 Option flow for Nvidia is mostly bullish, but today was a slower day, with some unusual call trades related to Broadcom's earnings.
• 😀 Market hedging opportunities are present, particularly with September historically being a weaker month, with risk-reward looking decent for those looking to hedge.
• 😀 The creator suggests taking it day-by-day, as the market remains unpredictable, and acknowledges that the timeline for these projections could shift based on new developments.
• 😀 A potential break below 169 or the 50 EMA on Nvidia could indicate further downside, leading to a larger leg lower in the stock.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of this Nvidia daily update video?

The video primarily focuses on Nvidia's stock performance, including its recent flat movement, potential momentum loss, and the broader market's influence on Nvidia's price action.

Why does the speaker mention Broadcom's earnings in the video?

The speaker mentions Broadcom's earnings to illustrate the potential impact of its performance on Nvidia's stock, as both companies are seen as part of the same market sentiment, influencing each other.

What is the speaker's current stance on Nvidia's stock momentum?

The speaker believes that Nvidia has lost momentum for now. Although the stock has stabilized at certain levels, the speaker remains bearish unless Nvidia proves otherwise by breaking above certain resistance levels.

What technical indicators does the speaker use to analyze Nvidia’s stock movement?

The speaker refers to the 9 exponential moving average (EMA), 50 EMA, and the MACD as key technical indicators in determining the stock’s momentum and potential future movement.

What is the speaker's base expectation for Nvidia's stock price in the near future?

The speaker expects Nvidia's stock to continue chopping around the current levels and potentially make one last push higher before facing resistance at the 173–174 range. Afterward, a potential rejection and downward movement is anticipated.

What does the speaker mention about the broader market conditions?

The speaker highlights potential resistance zones in the broader market, such as the QQQ ETF, and suggests that September, historically a weak month for the market, could see a bearish shift. The speaker also mentions the divergence between SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ, noting that SPY is at all-time highs while QQQ is lagging behind.

How does the speaker view the likelihood of Nvidia retesting its previous all-time highs?

The speaker suggests that while it may seem improbable now, Nvidia could eventually retest its previous all-time highs, as historical patterns often show that stocks revisit significant resistance areas after prolonged rejection.

What pattern does the speaker anticipate forming for Nvidia in the short term?

The speaker anticipates that Nvidia’s stock could form a bear flag or rising channel pattern in the short term, which could set up for a potential resistance and subsequent rejection.

What key levels does the speaker monitor for potential bearish signals in Nvidia’s stock?

The key levels the speaker monitors are the 169–170 range, the 50 EMA, and the resistance around 174. A daily close below the 169 level would signal a potential leg down for the stock.

What is the speaker's take on using options as part of the strategy for Nvidia?

The speaker notes that while there has been some bullish options flow for Nvidia, the day was relatively slow in terms of options activity. They mention that some traders are betting on Nvidia’s positive reaction to Broadcom’s earnings, but they remain cautious and expect resistance to kick in around the 173–174 price range.