The surprising results of India’s election
Summary
TLDRIn this episode of 'Trending Globally' by the Watson Institute at Brown University, host Dan Richards delves into India's recent elections, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP faced a surprising reduction in seats. The discussion with political scientist Ashutosh Varshney explores Modi's background, the rise of Hindu nationalism, and its implications for India's democracy. The episode also touches on the BJP's relationship with the RSS, the potential impact of coalition governance on Hindu nationalist policies, and the broader global context of nationalist leaders. Insights are shared on how these changes might influence India's domestic policies and its relationship with the U.S.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ India held the largest democratic election in history with over 640 million voters.
- 📅 The election lasted 44 days, involved 15 million polling staff, and had 1 million polling stations.
- 🔹 Narendra Modi's party, BJP, was expected to dominate but fell short of expectations.
- 🤝 Modi will have to rely on smaller parties for support, marking a shift to a multi-party coalition.
- 🕌 The election results impact the Hindu nationalist movement led by Modi.
- 🌍 Ashutosh Varshney from Brown University provides analysis on the surprising election outcome.
- 📉 The Congress party's decline in popularity since the late 1980s helped the BJP rise.
- 🧲 Modi's personal charisma and incorruptible image contributed to his political success.
- 📜 Modi's governance faced criticism for democratic backsliding and anti-Muslim policies.
- 🇮🇳 The election outcome suggests a potential shift in India’s treatment of minorities and constitutional governance.
- 🌐 India's relationship with the US remains strong due to geopolitical strategies against China.
- 🔄 The global trend of nationalist leaders might be losing momentum, as seen in India's election.
Q & A
What were the key statistics of India's largest democratic election?
-Over 640 million people voted in India's election, which took 44 days, involved 15 million polling staff, and had 1 million polling stations to fill 543 seats in Parliament.
What was the outcome of India's recent election for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party BJP?
-Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed victory, but his party, BJP, fell short of expectations and did not win an outright majority, needing to rely on smaller parties for support.
Who is Narendra Modi, and what is notable about his background?
-Narendra Modi comes from a very underprivileged background and did not have the privilege to study at prestigious universities. He was homeschooled and moved up the hierarchy through the RSS, an organization committed to Hindu nationalism.
What is the RSS, and how did it influence Narendra Modi?
-The RSS, or Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, is nearly 100 years old and promotes the idea of Hindu primacy in India. It is a cultural organization that believes in making politics and society more Hindu-centric. Modi joined the RSS as a teenager and was trained through its programs.
What is the relationship between the RSS and the BJP?
-The BJP is considered the political arm of the RSS. Many core BJP leaders, including Modi, were trained in the RSS, though not all BJP leaders come from the RSS.
How did Hindu nationalism rise to popularity in India?
-Hindu nationalism was not always popular. It was a fringe movement until around 1989 when the decline of the Indian National Congress's legitimacy due to corruption created room for new ideas. The BJP filled this gap with culturally and religiously defined proposals.
What role did Narendra Modi's personal characteristics play in his political success?
-Modi's profound charisma and the fact that he is single, without a family to benefit from political corruption, made him very attractive to voters, especially against a backdrop of widespread political corruption.
What actions has Modi taken that align with Hindu nationalist policies?
-Modi's government has passed several laws targeting Muslims, including removing the special status of Kashmir, passing a citizenship law that excludes Muslims from neighboring countries, and enacting 'love jihad' laws to prevent Muslim men from marrying Hindu women.
What were some reasons for the BJP's underperformance in the recent election?
-Concerns among voters about constitutional changes and the potential erosion of democratic principles, such as affirmative action for lower castes and the treatment of Muslims, contributed to the BJP's underperformance.
What are the potential impacts of the election results on India's governance?
-The need for coalition governance will dilute the ideological purity of Modi's policies, reduce centralization of power, and revive federalism. Aggressive Hindu nationalist policies toward Muslims will likely decrease to maintain coalition stability.
How might the election results affect India's relationship with the United States?
-The close relationship between India and the United States, seen as a counterweight to China, will likely remain unaffected by the election results, regardless of Modi's Hindu nationalist agenda.
Outlines
🇮🇳 Overview of India's Historic Election
This paragraph introduces the context of the recent Indian election, highlighting its massive scale and democratic significance. It mentions the expectations surrounding Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP, and contrasts these with the actual election results, which fell short of predictions, necessitating a coalition government.
🗳️ Modi's Political Journey and Background
The paragraph provides background on Narendra Modi, emphasizing his underprivileged origins and rise through the ranks of the RSS, an organization promoting Hindu nationalism. It explains how the RSS shaped Modi's political career and details the connection between the RSS and the BJP.
🌍 Rise of Hindu Nationalism in Modern India
This section explores the history and growth of Hindu nationalism in India, tracing its transformation from a fringe movement to a dominant political force. It discusses the decline of the Congress Party, the appeal of Hindu nationalist ideas, and Modi's charismatic leadership, which played a crucial role in the BJP's success.
🏛️ The Impact of Modi's Policies and Governance
This paragraph delves into Modi's controversial policies and their impact on India's political landscape, focusing on the legal measures taken against Muslims and the implications for India's democracy. It also examines Modi's authoritarian tendencies and the concept of democratic backsliding.
📜 Constitutional Concerns and Election Implications
The section discusses the election results' implications for India's governance, highlighting the concerns about constitutional changes and the dilution of ideological purity due to coalition politics. It emphasizes the significance of the election in terms of federalism, minority rights, and the potential for a more inclusive political approach.
🌏 Global Implications and Future Projections
This final paragraph reflects on the broader implications of India's election for global politics, particularly its relationship with the United States and the trend of nationalist leaders worldwide. It considers the potential changes in India's governance and their effects on international relations, particularly in the context of countering China's influence.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Narendra Modi
💡BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)
💡Hindu Nationalism
💡RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh)
💡Coalition Government
💡Democratic Backsliding
💡Kashmir
💡Love Jihad Laws
💡Affirmative Action
💡Constitutional Amendments
Highlights
On June 4th, results came in from the largest democratic election in history, with over 640 million people voting in India's election.
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, the BJP, did not secure the expected outright majority, leading to a need for coalition governance.
For the first time in Modi's tenure, his party will have to govern as part of a multi-party coalition.
Modi comes from a very underprivileged background, which contributes to his political popularity.
Modi's political career was shaped by the RSS, a nearly 100-year-old organization committed to the idea of Hindu primacy in India.
The BJP is the political arm of the RSS, with Modi being offered to the BJP in the late 1980s or 1990s.
Hindu nationalism was a fringe movement until around 1989, when the BJP began gaining popularity as the Congress party's dominance waned due to corruption.
Modi's charisma and perceived lack of corruption, due to his single status and lack of family, have significantly contributed to his popularity.
The BJP's victory in 2014 under Modi's leadership was a significant turning point, with an even more resounding victory in 2019.
Despite Modi's expected dominance, the BJP lost dozens of seats in the recent election, marking a shift in Indian politics.
Concerns about the Constitution and potential changes, particularly regarding affirmative action and the treatment of Muslims, influenced voter sentiment.
The BJP has historically opposed a caste census, which would highlight inequalities among different Hindu castes.
Modi's government has centralized power significantly, but coalition governance will require compromises and a revival of federalism.
The Hindu nationalist political aggression towards Muslims is expected to decrease to maintain coalition stability.
India's relationship with the United States, viewed as a counterweight to China, is expected to remain strong regardless of the election outcome.
Transcripts
from the Watson Institute for
international and public affairs at
Brown University this is trending
globally I'm Dan Richards on June 4th
results came in from the largest
democratic election in
history over 640 million people voted in
India's election 44 days 15 million
polling staff 1 million polling stations
and take 543
seats many people predicted that India's
prime minister Narendra Modi and his
party the BJP would dominate for the
third election in a row win an outright
majority of seats in India's Parliament
and further solidify their Hindu
nationalist movement's grip on the
country and then the results came
in the Indian Prime Minister Narendra
Modi has claimed Victory but his party's
performance appears to have fallen well
short of expectations a smaller than
expected mandate means Modi will have to
lean on smaller parties for support a
massive change for a man who has kept
power in the palm of his hand for two
terms for the first time in modi's
tenure his party will have to govern as
part of a multi-party
coalition but what does this actually
mean for India and what does it mean for
the Hindu nationalist movement that Modi
represents to answer these questions I
spoke with ashutosh vsh a political
scientist at Brown University and
director of the Watson institute's
saxena Center for contemporary South
Asia on this episode what led to the
surprising outcome of India's election
this year what it means for the Hindu
nationalist movement embodied by prime
minister Modi and what this all might
tell us about the struggle for democracy
currently taking place in countries
around the
world Professor
ashv thank you so much for coming back
on to trending globally pleasure to join
you so I want to talk about India's
election of course and the results we
saw the other week week but I was
wondering if we could start with a a
little bit about the man who was just
reelected as prime minister you know for
listeners who might not be that familiar
who is Narendra Modi and what drives him
Mr Modi comes from a very
underprivileged background and that is
one of the reasons for his political
popularity I can think of only one other
uh long serving being prime minister of
India who had a background as
underprivileged or perhaps more
underprivileged than his Manmohan Singh
who was prime minister from 2004 to 2014
but there was a very big difference Mr
Modi did not have the privilege to go to
either Cambridge or Oxford or American
IV League he was homeschooled he was
taught in regular Indian schools and he
has moved up the hierarchy through an
organization called the RSS
rria so what is the RSS and and how did
it shape Mr Modi Growing Up So this
organization is nearly 100 years old and
it is committed to the idea of Hindu
Primacy in India Hindu nationalism that
India is primarily a Hindu Nation Hindus
are 80% of India 20% are non-hindu
minorities the argument is that Hindus
are the original peoples of India and
they should have Primacy technically the
RSS is not a political organization it
calls itself a cultural organization it
is committed to what it calls the
cultural Rejuvenation of India and it
believes that the cultural Rejuvenation
will come from making politics and
Society more Hindu Centric they have
organizations all over India they which
meet regularly they typically catch um
members when they young in their teenage
and then they go through training
instruction and Modi was brought into
this organization around that age right
correct I think it was maybe 16 years
old or 15 years old and what's the
relationship between the RSS and the BJP
the the political party that Modi now
leads so the BJP technically speaking is
their political arm
they can exchange personnel with the BJP
that's been part of the tradition Mr
Modi was offered to the BJP sometime in
the 1990s or late 80s and he's been with
the BJP since then it's not that all BJP
leaders come from the RSS they've been
Outsiders who've come in and as it has
become bigger and bigger but the core of
the BJP is still those who were trained
in the
RSS okay so like you said the Hindu
nationalist movement in India has been
around for a long time including in the
form of the RSS and the
BJP but in the last decade this movement
and the BJP as its political arm has
become a Force in a in a new way so what
has made this movement so successful
more recently so how is it that Hindu
nationalism became so popular or has it
been popular all along the answer is it
has not been popular all along it was a
fringe movement when India became
independent in
1947 it never uh even reached double
digits in elections until
1989 now the question is what changed
around
1989 as V explained the story of the
rise of Hindu nationalism and the BJP
over the last decade in some ways starts
with the Indian National Congress the
bjp's political rival also known as just
the congress party the congress party
was the party that led the Freedom
Movement in India and was the party of
Gandhi and nehu to most important uh
leaders of the 20th century it dominated
the political scene after 47 till
1989 but by the late 1980s the congress
party was losing its luster by in 1989
it was clear that the old style Congress
politics was corrupt hugely so and some
new ideas were needed the new ideas
could have come from two sides the left
wing and where the Communists were or
the right wing where the Hindu
nationalists were the left-wing ideas
led by the Communist party did not have
appeal uh because civilization or in
terms of India's culture it was very
hard to understand a Pur class-based
argument which the Communists had they
succeeded in two states but it was not
going to work in the largest part of
India it didn't make much sense to the
electorate but a culturally defined a
religiously defined alternative proposal
started making greater sense as the
legitimacy of the longlasting
incumbents congress party
declined so BJP filled that Gap with
these ideas and these ideas acquired
ferocious popularity in the last 10
years another key ingredient in This
ferocious popularity was the profound
Charisma of the bjp's leader very few
leaders in India you can count them on
your hand have wielded the kind of
Charisma Mr Modi yields part of the
Charisma is built on something that
would be called very counterintuitive in
the West which is that Mr Modi is
single he was married as a teenager but
he left his wife he doesn't have a
family he doesn't have children his lack
of a partner or children is something
that is an asset for him and other
Indian politicians the amount of
corruption that Indian politics
Saw made him very attractive to the
people because he would not use his
office to make money for his family for
his children in addition to his Charisma
and seemingly unimpeachable nature Modi
was also supported in his Rise by the
vast network of the organization that
shaped him the RSS which uh has a
long-term view of how to reform Indian
politics and Society has very dedicated
U volunteers and members and they were
all ready to support him and to work for
him to knock at the door and get the
vote
out the bjp's popularity grew in 2014
under the leadership of Mr Modi the BJP
won a majority of seats in that Year's
parliamentary elections and Mr Modi
became prime minister the victory by the
Bara jenta party and its leader Narendra
Modi had been Wily predicted but what
hadn't was the scale of the landslide 5
years later in
2019 Modi and the BJP won again with an
even more resounding Victory the
incumbent prime minister lenro mudi has
dominated this election the BJP and its
Coalition partners are leading by a long
way
347 seats a clear majority the Indian
National Congress and its allies trail
behind on 87
seats until this year's election Mod's
grip on power had seemed to only be
growing stronger and while there were a
number of factors that led to the bjp's
dominance as varsh made clear it can
also only be understood thanks to the
collapse of the bjp's Rival the strong
force that it became by 2014 that would
not have been possible without the
widespread Corruption of the congress
party and its
allies that is what created room for Mr
modi's politics and Mr modi's
organization and that's how it spread
from one state to many other states and
made him an all- India
figure any surprising Victory involves a
an embarrassing defeat yes you know yes
yes and you know this is a fairly common
occurrence in most polities incumbents
lose because they don't behave well and
they don't understand the popular wishes
or they abuse office and authority and
then the challengers come in you know
International observers speaking of
other other polities Modi has often been
mentioned in the same circle of leaders
like erdogan in Turkey or bolsonaro and
Brazil Trump in the United States part
of a wave of um somewhat you know
nationalist autocratic leaning uh strong
men what do you make of that comparison
do you see something coherent shared
among all these figures or is it sort of
too easy an analogy no I think uh at one
level the analogy is very very
good they all have what we call now in
my discipline in political science
authoritarian Tendencies which lead to
and I'm now using a political science
term Democratic backsliding this concept
emerged quite recently in political
science and it started covering a
phenomenon which was rare earlier if not
entirely absent those who attacked
democracy in the past generally came
from the
military or authoritarian civilian
leaders who would suspend
elections or stage them basically in the
Democratic backsliding literature the
military is not an agent of democratic
erosion elected politicians are the
first thing they normally do is attack
the non-electoral aspects of democracy
freedom of expression freedom of
Association minority protection so these
are people who first attack that and
then sometime they start attacking
elections
themselves so what are some examples of
mod policies that are either attacking
elections or just generally fitting into
this template of democratic backsliding
so Hindus are 80% of India roughly and
minorities are 20% and Muslims are the
biggest minority 14% plus that is that
adds up to more than 200 million people
India by that account is either the
third or fourth largest Muslim country
in the world even though Muslims are
only 14% because the overall size of
India is so
immense so
Hindu nationalism Doctrine originally
was against both Muslims and
Christians but under its Modi
Incarnation it has especially targeted
Muslims the adversary for Hindu
nationalists has always been the Muslim
and we can get into details of this why
this is so that's because in part
Muslims came to India from Central Asia
and the Middle East to begin with uh
they ruled large parts of India between
1206 and
1757 when the British came to India and
started capturing India so there is that
126 to 1757 period in Indian history
when large parts were ruled by Muslim
kings many of whom came from abroad not
all many were born inside right so the
idea Hindu nationalism again and again
and again and again without failure is
that Muslims are
Outsiders even if so many were born in
India even if in fact an overwhelming
majority was born in India but they are
not the original peoples of India is the
argument and Hindu Supremacy has to be
restored which means Hindus and Muslims
cannot be equal an idea which as V made
clear isn't just
undemocratic that is also fundamentally
unconstitutional idea India's
Constitution says all religions are
equal every citizen regardless of their
religious background is equal to every
other citizen so can you walk us through
some of the actions he's taken to
promote this anti-muslim Hindu
nationalist agenda so at three levels
there was a legal
intervention one was the only Muslim
majority state of India Kashmir through
parliamentary legislation in August 2019
after the last victory lost its status
as a state let alone as a specially
protected State second by December of
that year when an unprecedented number
of the lower house was BJP politicians
parliament passed a law which said that
from Muslim majority neighboring
countries Pakistan Afghanistan and
Bangladesh anyone can be a refugee in
India and apply for citizenship except
Muslims uh third in states that were
governed by the BJP nearly half of India
States and many of them love Jihad laws
were passed what are love Jihad laws
love Jihad laws are that Muslim men
cannot marry Hindu women what is the
premise for this claim that Muslims have
historically used this this trick
marrying Hindu women to make their own
numbers
larger and if this is not stopped then
very soon Indian Hindus will become a
minority in their own
land so even if it was a voluntary act
between two adults it had to be
prevented and some BJP States came up
with these laws
[Music]
wow and these types of of actions were
surely you know on some people's minds
during this election and I want to look
now at the election because um many
people were surprised by the results
Modi had
expressed optimism that the BJP would
gain seats in fact the BJP ended up
losing dozens of seats their coal
Coalition makes the majority but the BJP
no longer has the majority right what
went through your head when you saw
these election
results were you surprised not after my
election travels in May I had sensed it
and I wrote a column uh I think
published on May 14th or 15th and I had
sensed a change through by traveling and
talking to several hundred people what
did you sense in those conversations so
what I discovered most most
surprisingly while talking to average
Indian citizens not the elite that they
were worried about what might happen to
the Constitution and they were worried
about serious constitutional changes one
worry of course was that affirmative
action for the lower class might
disappear and of course the Muslim
minority was very worried about Muslims
being turned into second class citizens
and Hindu Prime
legally established a very important uh
point you raised if Modi had returned to
power with BJP in a majority well modi's
call was for 370 seats out of
543 what was the logic of that call the
underlying logic became very clear for
2/3 of India's Parliament leaving out
the lower Upper House amounts to
364 370 means he wanted 2/3 of seats
going to the BJP why do you need 2/3 of
seats you can initiate serious
Constitutional Amendments including
turning India Constitution into a Hindu
nationalist document and establishing
Hindu Primacy legally enough people from
the lower rungs of Indian Society lower
Hindu cast
including dalits the lowest Hindu
cast who have affirmative action and the
low Hindu cast also have affirmative
action Constitution legally and
Muslims so the combination of Muslims
theit and lower class defeated Modi so
the concern for the Constitution is a
very important new development at the at
the level of mass
politics so the election itself has
Maybe revealed something about the state
of India's politics and Society but I
wonder what do you expect to be the
biggest changes now in terms of how
India is governed what effect will this
election itself have on the country so
several things can be said about that
first ideological Purity turned into
policy and governance will have to be
compromised modified seriously ly
diluted because Modi is an alliance and
the alliance parties are not committed
to that ideology in fact one of the very
important ones is committed to something
called a cast census the cast system in
India divides Hindus into groups that
exist within a religious and social
hierarchy a cast and a cast census would
bring light to some of the details of
this hierarchy which Modi never wanted
because if you do a cast census you will
know which Hindu cast have what share of
the
resources who is more educated who is
less educated by how much who has what
kinds of assets to put it simply what is
the level of privilege enjoyed by which
group and what is the level of
deprivation suffered by witch groups the
BJP has always been against that and
Hindu nationalists in general including
the RSS the parent organiz always been
against that because they believe the
more you talk about cast Politics the
greater the attack on Hindu Unity so
this is one reason uh why you should
expect the ideological
Purity to be seriously diluted second
India under Modi became less and less
Federal
more and more
centralized power was concentrated in
his hands in his office I think one can
safely say the prime minister's office
in India has never been as powerful the
way Mr Modi started controlling India's
FBI called CBI India's Election
Commission which is an independent body
independent constitutional body the
those parts of the poity which are
supposed to check the executive and
executive misconduct and have been
constitutionally set up were all falling
under his
control and losing their executive
oversight function they were becoming an
arm of the executive that will have to
go now and federalism also will see a
bit of Revival not not returning to its
older Health but when you have
coalitional governments in India where a
national party depends on Regional
parties for its survival some parties
are National others are state-based so
once you have a coalition with
state-based parties the state rights the
state desires start becoming more
prominent politically all the changes
you just described or potential changes
we could expect to see what effect will
that have on sort of the the treatment
and and marginalization of India's
Muslim population do you do you think so
it is almost certain
now that the Hindu nationalist political
aggression towards the Muslim minority
will have to go down it has the
potential of breaking up the ruling
Coalition one very important member of
the Coalition party in the Coalition is
committed to minority rights in its
state so this can be a deal breaker so
it'll have to go down
let's turn to what this election means
for the world and maybe let's start with
the United States and India's
relationship what does this election
mean for that
relationship India and United States
have been coming closer and closer and
closer India is not a formal Ally of um
Washington the defense collaboration ET
do not touch the level of NATO
collaborations
right however short of an alliance India
is as close to the United States today
as any country can be and that will not
be affected either by Modi regaining
power as a Hindu
supremacist which is most unlikely to
happen or when he is an alliance as is
true now India is viewed by Washington
as a counterweight to
Beijing that logic that that
geopolitical logic will not be affected
by any changes in Indian
Po and uh Mr Biden in his congratulatory
note to Modi has said roughly that as we
wrap up I wanted to zoom out even a
little bit more to this Global Trend we
have touched on of of nationalist strong
men type figure some that are more
easily comparable to Modi others less so
but this election I think many people
have seen it as as something of a a
victory for the opponents of this type
of of movement and this type of leader
do you think we can or should read into
this election at all for a sense of if
this type of politics is maybe losing
steam almost certainly that is true
because of India's uh size and uh the
fact that it's the largest democracy in
the world and the fact that Modi became
an international figure if Modi had lost
power
completely then it would have been
called an earthquake at this point it's
a big
[Music]
shakeup while this election may not have
triggered a political earthquake there
is one election later this year whose
results could but we can't be sure about
what will happen in America in November
a lot in the world will turn on that if
Mr Trump comes back to Power it's
International
ramifications will be very
different and while what we saw in India
was maybe not an earthquake in the eyes
of vsh we have yet to see its full
effects as politics are reconfigured in
many parts of the world what has
happened in India will play a
role well ashutosh V thank you so much
for talking with us it was a pleasure
talk to
you this episode was produced by me Dan
Richards and Zack Hirsch our engineer is
Eric Emma our theme music is by Henry
Bloomfield with additional music by The
Blue Dot
sessions if you enjoyed this episode
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[Music]
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