[FULL] Dialog - Harga Emas Naik Terus, Saatnya Jual atau Beli?

Summary

This video discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which has been driven by the US-China trade war and geopolitical instability. Experts predict that gold could continue to rise, potentially reaching $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year, due to ongoing economic uncertainties. The discussion touches on the potential risks and rewards of buying gold at current prices, advising short-term traders to be cautious while long-term investors could still benefit. The conversation also explores the pros and cons of investing in gold bullion versus jewelry, emphasizing the impact of market volatility and global economic conditions.

Takeaways

• 😀 Gold prices have been rising significantly since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on April 2, 2025, prompting public interest in buying and selling gold.
• 😀 Some international institutions, like Goldman Sachs, predict gold could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year, while others like UBS and Bank of America forecast $3,500 per ounce.
• 😀 Despite recent gains, there is still a strong possibility that gold prices could increase further due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, especially between the US and China.
• 😀 Historically, gold has shown a strong annual increase over the past six or seven years, and global issues such as trade wars and instability in Europe and the Middle East continue to support its price rise.
• 😀 As of now, gold has already risen around $600 per ounce from the beginning of the year, and while the potential for further increases remains, there is a risk of price corrections.
• 😀 Gold tends to see its biggest price surges in the first quarter of the year, with a possible slowdown in growth as we approach the second half, which is typical historically.
• 😀 The possibility of gold prices continuing to rise remains, but if the geopolitical tensions decrease, especially with the US-China trade war, gold prices might stabilize or drop.
• 😀 High levels of uncertainty and volatility, especially in the US-China trade relations, have driven gold prices higher, but if these tensions ease, there could be downward pressure on the market.
• 😀 The biggest holder of gold reserves is the US, and if countries or central banks begin massive gold sales, it could impact prices significantly, especially if the US attempts to raise foreign reserves.
• 😀 For investors looking to buy gold, short-term traders should consider a few months holding period to avoid high risks, while long-term investors can continue buying gradually, benefiting from historical returns.

Q & A

Why has the price of gold been increasing recently?

The price of gold has been increasing due to several factors, including the announcement of import tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump in early April, which triggered public interest in buying and selling gold. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and instability in regions like Europe and the Middle East are contributing to the rise in gold prices.

What are the predictions for the price of gold by the end of 2025?

Several international institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Bank of America, predict that the price of gold could reach between $3,500 and $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, up from the current price of around $3,200 per ounce.

Does Alfred Naolan believe the price of gold will continue to rise?

Yes, Alfred Naolan believes that the probability of gold prices continuing to rise in the short term is high. He attributes this to the ongoing geopolitical issues, the escalation of the trade war, and economic uncertainties that support higher demand for gold.

What historical trends can we observe regarding the price of gold?

Historically, the price of gold has shown a consistent increase over the past 6 to 7 years. The price typically peaks around April each year. However, after significant increases, gold prices tend to experience slower growth or even a reduction in growth, but this does not usually result in sharp price drops.

What factors could cause the price of gold to decrease?

The price of gold could decrease if global economic conditions improve significantly, as seen in past instances when economic growth led to corrections in gold prices. Factors such as a resolution in the trade war or stabilization in geopolitical conflicts could also reduce demand for gold, leading to a potential price drop.

Should people buy gold for short-term trading or long-term investment?

For short-term trading, it is advised to keep holding periods relatively short, such as 1 to 3 months, due to the volatility in the gold market. For long-term investment, buying gold regularly (e.g., monthly) is considered a sound strategy, as historical returns have been positive even with short-term fluctuations.

Is it better to buy gold in the form of bars or jewelry?

If the primary goal is investment, gold bars (logam mulia) are preferred due to their higher value retention. However, if the goal is both investment and aesthetic appeal, jewelry can be a suitable option, though it might not retain its value as well as gold bars due to manufacturing costs.

How do geopolitical issues affect the price of gold?

Geopolitical issues, such as trade wars and regional conflicts, create uncertainty and volatility in the global market. This uncertainty drives demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, causing its price to rise. Any escalation in these issues can further fuel the demand for gold.

What role does economic growth play in the price of gold?

Economic growth generally leads to a decrease in the demand for gold, as investors shift towards riskier, higher-return assets. Historically, when global economic growth is strong, gold prices tend to fall, as seen in the 1980s, 1990s, and during 2013-2015 when gold experienced significant price corrections.

What advice does Alfred Naolan give to individuals who already own gold?

For those who already own gold, Alfred Naolan suggests considering profit-taking, especially if they have seen substantial gains. He advises not to hold onto gold with the expectation of long-term price increases, particularly in the short term, as the market is showing signs of potential volatility.