Gold Is Exploding To All Time Highs

Summary

The video script delves into the recent surge in gold prices, which is often misconstrued as an inflation hedge when it's actually a hedge against monetary errors and financial instability. It analyzes comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller regarding the Fed's portfolio restructuring and quantitative tightening. The script challenges the popular notion of gold as an inflation hedge, instead positioning it as a safe-haven asset amid rising demand for safety and liquidity, potentially driven by recession risks, real estate concerns, and global economic uncertainties.

Takeaways

• 🔑 The surge in gold prices is not due to inflation concerns but rather a rising demand for safety and liquidity, signaling potential risks.
• 💰 Gold is not an effective inflation hedge; it historically performs well during periods of monetary and financial instability.
• 🗣️ Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech sparked speculation about a reverse operation twist or future quantitative easing (QE), but he was likely just discussing mechanics of an ideal portfolio.
• 📊 Waller noted that household demand, not just hedge funds, is driving the deep appetite for U.S. Treasuries during quantitative tightening (QT).
• ⚠️ The broad and deep demand for safe and liquid assets like Treasuries and gold could indicate rising recession risks, deflation concerns, or global real estate issues.
• 📉 Treasury yields have been declining again, potentially signaling another leg lower and further demand for safety.
• 🌍 Global factors, such as China's real estate problems, may be contributing to the increased craving for safe-haven assets.
• 📈 Gold's recent rally aligns with the inverted yield curve and lower interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
• 🤔 The analysis suggests there could be underlying risks or instability that the market is pricing in through the demand for safe assets.
• 🔮 Understanding the drivers behind the safety bid in Treasuries and gold could provide insights into potential economic or financial vulnerabilities.

Q & A

What was the main focus of Christopher Waller's speech that caused a stir in the markets?

Waller mentioned that he would like to see the Fed shift its treasury holdings towards a larger share of shorter-dated treasuries, which sparked speculation about a possible 'reverse operation twist' or future quantitative easing (QE) program by the Fed.

Why did Waller's remarks about a potential future QE program concern the markets?

The markets interpreted Waller's comments as a signal that the Fed might be preparing for another round of QE, which could be seen as an admission that previous QE efforts were ineffective or that the economic situation was deteriorating.

What was the main point Waller made about the demand for U.S. Treasury securities?

Waller emphasized that the demand for U.S. Treasury securities is broad and deep, driven not just by sophisticated investors like hedge funds, but also by households and the general public, suggesting a strong appetite for safe and liquid assets.

Why is the increasing demand for safety and liquidity, as evidenced by the demand for Treasuries and gold, significant?

The growing demand for safe and liquid assets like Treasuries and gold could signal concerns about recession risks, deflationary pressures, or other potential economic threats, which would explain the desire for safe-haven investments.

What is the misconception about gold being an inflation hedge?

The video argues that gold is not truly an inflation hedge, but rather a hedge against gross monetary errors and financial instability. It cites examples where gold underperformed during periods of rising consumer prices, suggesting it is more a safe-haven asset than an inflation hedge.

What factors could be driving the increasing demand for safety and liquidity, as evidenced by the rising prices of gold and falling Treasury yields?

Potential factors mentioned include recession risks, deflationary pressures, problems in the commercial real estate market, China's real estate issues, and other global economic uncertainties that could be fueling the desire for safe-haven assets.

How does the video interpret the recent behavior of gold prices and Treasury yields?

The video suggests that the recent surge in gold prices and decline in Treasury yields are not necessarily driven by inflation concerns, but rather by a growing demand for safety and liquidity, potentially signaling broader economic risks or instability.

What is the significance of Waller's comments about the Fed's mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings?

Waller stated that he doesn't want any more MBS in the Fed's portfolio, as he believes they are not a good fit, especially in the current environment. This suggests a potential shift in the Fed's asset holdings.

How does the video view the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program and its impact on the Treasury market?

The video suggests that, contrary to concerns, the Fed's QT program has not disrupted the Treasury market, as there appears to be sufficient demand from various investors, including households, to absorb the supply of Treasuries as the Fed's holdings roll off.

What is the significance of the video's discussion about the 'basis trade' and hedge funds?

The video mentions that the Fed is concerned about the risk posed by the 'basis trade' involving hedge funds buying Treasuries, but Waller's comments suggest that domestic hedge funds are not the primary buyers, alleviating some of the Fed's concerns about this specific risk.

Outlines

00:00

🔑 Federal Reserve Signals Potential Future QE and Portfolio Restructuring

This paragraph discusses comments made by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller in a speech on Friday. Waller expressed a desire to shift the Fed's treasury holdings toward shorter-dated securities and mentioned the possibility of a future asset purchase program (QE). This raised speculation about the Fed's intentions, with some comparing it to the 2011 'Operation Twist' program, which was a way for the Fed to take action without appearing to do so. However, the paragraph suggests that Waller's comments may simply reflect an ideal portfolio composition for the Fed rather than signaling immediate policy changes.

05:01

🏦 Household Demand for Treasuries Mitigates Quantitative Tightening Concerns

This paragraph focuses on Waller's comments regarding the demand for U.S. Treasury securities. Waller stated that the increase in household demand for Treasuries is not driven by hedge funds but rather by actual households and nonprofit organizations. This finding reinforces the view that demand for Treasuries is broad and deep, suggesting that the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) and the Fed's balance sheet run-off is not a significant problem. Waller's interpretation is that the demand for Treasuries comes from a wide range of investors, not just sophisticated institutions, indicating a strong appetite for safe and liquid assets.

10:02

🏛 Gold as a Hedge: Misconceptions and Reality

This paragraph discusses the common misconception that gold is an inflation hedge. It argues that gold is actually a poor hedge against normal inflation or disinflation. Instead, gold's performance has historically been tied to periods of significant monetary and financial stress, such as the 1970s and the housing bubble of the 2000s. The paragraph suggests that gold's recent surge is not due to inflation concerns but rather a demand for safety and liquidity, similar to the demand for Treasuries. This demand for safe assets corresponds to lower interest rates and an inverted yield curve, indicating potential economic risks and a flight to safety.

15:03

⚠️ Rising Demand for Safety and Liquidity: Potential Causes

This paragraph explores the potential reasons behind the rising demand for safety and liquidity, as evidenced by the rally in gold prices and falling Treasury yields despite the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. It suggests that this demand may be driven by factors such as recession risks, deflationary pressures, commercial real estate problems, and global real estate issues, particularly in China. The paragraph posits that these risks and uncertainties are likely fueling the appetite for safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold, indicating a potential economic slowdown or crisis on the horizon.

Keywords

💡Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Quantitative Tightening (QT) refers to the process of the Federal Reserve reducing the size of its balance sheet by allowing bonds it holds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This is the opposite of Quantitative Easing (QE), where the Fed purchases bonds to increase liquidity and lower interest rates. In the video, Waller discusses the impact of QT on the demand for U.S. Treasury securities, stating that it has not been a problem due to broad and deep demand.

💡Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) are bonds backed by a pool of mortgages. In the video, Waller states that he would prefer the Fed to hold fewer MBS in its portfolio, as they are less suitable for a central bank's holdings, especially in the current environment with low prepayment rates.

💡Treasury Bills

Treasury Bills, or T-Bills, are short-term government debt securities with maturities of up to one year. Waller suggests shifting the Fed's holdings toward a larger share of T-Bills, which would allow the Fed's income and expenses to move in tandem with changes in the federal funds rate. He notes that prior to the financial crisis, the Fed held approximately one-third of its portfolio in T-Bills, compared to less than 5% currently.

💡Basis Trade

The basis trade refers to a strategy employed by hedge funds to profit from the difference (basis) between the yields on cash bonds and derivatives linked to those bonds. Waller mentions that the Fed is working to separate hedge fund data from household data, as they are concerned about the risks associated with the basis trade being performed by a narrow set of sophisticated investors.

💡Reverse Operation Twist

A reverse Operation Twist refers to a potential strategy where the Fed allows its long-term bond holdings to mature while purchasing short-term bonds. This is the opposite of the original Operation Twist in 2011, where the Fed sold short-term bonds and bought long-term bonds to flatten the yield curve. The video discusses the possibility of the Fed implementing a reverse Twist to shift its portfolio toward shorter-dated securities.

💡Inflation Hedge

An inflation hedge is an investment or asset that is expected to maintain or increase in value during periods of high inflation. Contrary to popular belief, the video argues that gold is a poor inflation hedge, as its performance has historically been more closely tied to periods of monetary policy errors and financial crises rather than simply tracking consumer price inflation.

💡Safety and Liquidity

Safety and liquidity refer to the properties of assets that are considered low-risk and easily convertible to cash. The video suggests that the ongoing demand for U.S. Treasuries and gold reflects a desire for safety and liquidity, which may indicate concerns about potential economic risks or uncertainties, rather than expectations of high inflation.

💡Inverted Yield Curve

An inverted yield curve occurs when long-term interest rates are lower than short-term rates, which is an unusual situation and often viewed as a potential signal of an impending economic downturn or recession. The video notes that the inversion of the yield curve, both in the U.S. and globally, coincided with the recent surge in gold prices, potentially reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets.

💡Recession Risk

Recession risk refers to the likelihood or possibility of an economic downturn or contraction. The video posits that the rising demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries and gold could be driven by increasing concerns about recession risks, potentially stemming from factors such as problems in the commercial real estate market, China's real estate issues, or other economic uncertainties.

💡Deflationary Recession

A deflationary recession is an economic downturn characterized by a sustained period of falling prices (deflation). The video suggests that the heightened demand for safe assets like Treasuries and gold may be indicative of concerns about a potential deflationary recession, which would be a highly unusual and challenging economic environment.

Highlights

Gold is reaching an all-time high, which is often seen as a red flag, but it may not be related to inflation.

The recent move in gold seems to have been catalyzed by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's speech, but the focus should be on a different part of his speech related to treasuries and global bonds.

Gold is not actually an inflation hedge; it is a poor inflation hedge. Instead, it is a hedge against gross monetary errors and incompetence.

During the 1970s, gold was a hedge against inflationary circumstances caused by monetary errors, not inflation itself.

In the 1980s and 1990s, as consumer prices continued to rise, gold prices were flat or declining, showing that it does not hedge against normal inflation or disinflation.

Gold's surge in the 21st century was likely due to the housing bubble and monetary policy errors, not inflation risk.

During the pandemic, gold acted as a hedge against lockdowns until August 2020, but then declined as consumer prices rose in 2021, contradicting the inflation hedge belief.

Gold started rising in October 2022 when the yield curve heavily inverted, indicating demand for safety and lower opportunity cost of holding gold.

Waller's speech mentioned a "reverse operation twist," but this was likely just mechanics about an ideal portfolio, not a signal of future actions.

Waller recognized that quantitative tightening (QT) is not a problem because there is broad and deep demand for U.S. Treasury securities, contrary to concerns.

According to Fed data, the increased demand for Treasuries is driven by households and non-profit organizations, not just hedge funds engaged in the basis trade.

The key question is why there is such a strong demand for safety and liquidity in Treasuries and gold, which could indicate recession risk, deflationary pressures, or other global issues.

Treasury yields are falling again, potentially signaling another leg lower and further demand for safety and liquidity.

The rise in gold prices, along with falling Treasury yields, could be driven by increasing demand for safety amid recession risks, deflationary pressures, or other global concerns.

The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the true drivers behind market movements and asset prices, rather than relying on common misconceptions or surface-level narratives.

Transcripts

gold is screaming to an all-time high

which is a pretty big red flag and has

nothing to do with inflation the most

recent move seems to have been catalyzed

by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher

Waller who gave a speech last Friday but

the part of the speech that everyone has

latched on to that's not the part to

focus on that's not the one that

actually explains what's happening here

instead it was something else Waller

said that gets us closer to the actual

truth and it has to do with another big

move being made just now too and that's

in treasuries and Global bonds the

markets are telling us something is in

motion here there's Rising need to hedge

but contrary to popular perception gold

isn't actually an inflation hedge in

fact it is a poor inflation hedge so we

need to understand what it is that first

of all Waller said and most of all what

it is that gold is really about that's

what we'll talk about today in the

context of of maybe another big move

starting in the treasury market but

Christopher Waller Friday speech in New

York City it was titled thoughts on

quantitative tightening including

remarks on the paper quantitative

tightening around the globe what have we

learned it couldn't have been a more

exciting presentation in paper but what

Waller said that everyone really focused

on was in his concluding remarks he said

a couple things in his conclusion the

first one he doesn't want any more NBS

in the fed's portfolio he doesn't think

they're a good fit uh NBS especially low

prepayments in this environment a whole

bunch of stuff about MBS that's not the

issue here either instead it was what he

said about the fed's treasury Holdings

that set off this well mini Firestorm of

oh God what's really happening here what

he said was second I would like to see a

shift in treasury Holdings toward a

larger share of shorter dated treasury

Securities prior to the global financi

ccial crisis which was not Financial we

held approximately onethird of our

portfolio in treasury bills today bills

are less than 5% of our treasury

Holdings and less than 3% of our total

Securities Holdings moving toward more

treasury bills which shift the maturity

structure more toward our policy rate

the overnight federal funds rate and

allow our income and expenses to rise

and fall together as the fomc increases

and cuts the target range this approach

could also assist a future asset Pur

program because we could let the

short-term Securities roll off the

portfolio and not increase the balance

sheet so from that set that that passage

people are getting a couple things out

of it first of all he just mentioned QE

a future QE is the Fed now starting to

think about another QE in 2024 and the

other thing was what people have called

a reversed operation twist the FED would

allow its long-term bonds to roll off

and buy short-term bonds if you remember

the operation twist back in 2011 which

was itself a Reincarnation of an earlier

Twist from a long period a long time ago

back in 2011 operation twist wasn't

really about twisting the yield curve

that's what they told the public when

you have to remember the the

circumstances behind all that in

September 2011 when they announced

operation twist and voted for it the

economy had been unexpectedly weak the

banking system had fallen into a another

liquidity problem in fact they were

talking about bailing out the repo

Market dollar shortage around the rest

of the world banks on the brink just

like in 2008 and let's not forget QE QE

number two had just ended a couple

months before all of this took place so

the last thing the Federal Reserve

wanted to do though they did want to was

do another QE so soon after the the one

the run that had just ended had ended in

other words they couldn't do another qe3

so quickly because that would be an

admission that QE doesn't work which

would have been actually helpful but

they also knew they had to do something

because the situation was getting pretty

Grim what they came up with was a way to

do something which remember in the fed's

world view and how they operate doing

something and more so announcing that

they're doing something is what mon

monetary policy is supposed to be

remember Haru hio coroa from Japan it's

all about Peter Pan it's about whether

or not you get people to believe in that

you can fly

so operation twist was we don't have to

admit we're doing another QE just be

just after QE2 ended while at the same

time we're doing something we're going

to be buying some assets don't worry

about it don't ask too many questions so

in the context of Waller speech in

2024 some alarm Bells Are Ringing here

because operation twist in 2011 was a

way to do something without appearing to

be doing something so it natural to

wonder especially given the passage that

included a reference to the FED doing

another QE is that what the fed's doing

here are they doing something in the

same way as 2011 getting prepared

because there's other things going on

beneath the surface that maybe the FED

is privy to that nobody else is is this

a 2011 style scenario a reverse

operation twist just to put another spin

on doing something while that might be

something that it it sounds reasonable

and understandable to think that way but

my personal opinion is that I don't

think Waller is doing anything more than

exactly what he said in an Ideal World

this is what our Soma portfolio would

look like we wouldn't have any NBS

because MBs are cumbersome and they're

not they're not ideal for a central bank

at the same time he would like a lot

more treasury bills in the S portfolio

remember why they took treasury bills

out of the S Som portfolio it goes back

to 2019 as the Fed was rebuilding its

Bill Holdings and it led to remember we

had all that repo problems which the FED

never colle never connected to

Collateral but that also led to a do

something that isn't QE remember October

of 2019 the fed's not qe5 which was a

focused purchase on only treasury bills

because the FED didn't want to be seen

doing QE back then either they had

already started cutting rates and they

really didn't want people to start

panicking especially when we had a

recession scare inversion of the cures

and a whole bunch of repo problems so

again it's understandable what people

would make more out of what said because

every time the FED seems to do something

like this it corresponds to less than

desirable circumstances but again the

FED Tre purchased treasury bills

exclusively treasury bills in QE not qe5

but then March of 2020 they realized

what a big mistake that was and so March

of 2020 during that collateral shortage

period they stopped buying bills and

moved all of their QE elsat purchases

down the Curve

and they have been rolling off bills not

voluntarily they've rolling off bills

during its QT as well so what Waller is

basically saying is we're looking ahead

as if we think things are going to be

normal and in a ideal environment we'd

have a lot more bills and no MBS that's

pretty much all he said he did mention

about how that would affect a future QE

because the FED could then just roll off

its short-term treasury bills and use

the proceeds to to to fund their

purchases of longer term notes which

would be part of the future QE and the

reason he brought that up is because

earlier in the speech he said QE is no

longer an unconventional program it's

just part of what we do around here and

therefore from his perspective If the

Fed wants to manipulate the yield curve

down the road what better way to do it

then to roll off bills and use those

proceeds to fund purchases of long-term

rates and with the intent of getting

long-term rates to go down never mind

that all of this stuff is just nonsense

it doesn't work that way from wallers

perspective that's all he was

saying so if this is not the FED

restarting something because they're

worried about the way the world is then

what did what else did Waller say that

was act that would actually be helpful

in understanding what's going on in gold

and treasury bonds well part of his

speech was dedicated as the title made

clear to QT and one of the things that

people have been talking about with QT

ever since the which the second one in

2019 2018 and 2019 which is it was

really the second one not the first one

it was the first official one the first

official QT everybody said well without

the Federal Reserve the treasury

Market's going to blow up here

especially since deficits appear to be

rising and so part of Waller speech that

was focused on QT was well we aren't

really expecting the treasury market to

go to blow up because there is a deep

pool of buyers what Waller said was as

currently categorized the financial

account household category includes

hedge funds the Federal Reserve board is

working to segregate hedge funds in this

data set in the interim the board

publishes separate data on the balance

sheets of domestic hedge funds that's a

key key Point here using the supplement

supplemental data I find that it is not

the hedge funds that are responsible for

the increase in household market share

this means the increase is driven by the

other household investors including

actual households and nonprofit

organizations because that's another big

part of

QT as the feds push F fed no longer buys

any long-term bonds or short-term bonds

or any bonds it's R letting them roll

off its balance sheet this passive

quantitative tightening that means other

people have to step up other funds

institutions or households to buy what

the FED isn't buying and while people

have worried that there's going to be a

limit especially with the treasury

Department issuing so much debt and the

federal government going completely

insane thus far it hasn't been an issue

and one of the reasons it hasn't been an

issue as Waller was alluding to is the

basis trade for from hedge funds and

I've talked about this before in a

previous video except a couple previous

videos what that what the basis trade is

and what it means but for as far as

officials are concerned they hate the

basis trade they think it's a big huge

risk and so if it's only hedge funds

that are buying treasuries that's an

enormous problem at least in their mind

but what Waller was saying is that when

you look at the data what data we do

have we find that well no it isn't it

doesn't appear to be domestic hedge

funds that are actually buying all these

treasuries that the FED no longer is

instead what he says according to the

FED data it is actually households that

are stepping up and buying not through

hedge funds but households themselves

now what I would add and I I bet Waller

would too if he if he felt like talking

more the truth what he would say is that

overseas hedge funds is another story

offshore hedge funds that are indeed

engaged in the basis trade but the

overall point remains regardless there

is demand for for treasuries independent

of hedge funds in the basis trade let's

go back to Waller one more time what do

I make of this finding my interpretation

is that it reinforces the view that the

demand for US Treasury Securities is

Broad and deep the buyers are not a

narrow set of deep pocketed

sophisticated investors but rather of

the American public as a result the pace

of runoff is not a problem as I've

talked to as I've said and pointed out

all numerous times rates are despite the

huge is issuance and treasuries rates

are actually a little bit lower than

they were at the end of 2022 despite

another another bunch of Fed rate hikes

in between and quantitative tightening

there is demand for treasuries so all

that's well and good but it should cause

everyone to ask the next logical and

obvious question why is demand for

treasury so Broad and deep that's the

part that we need to think about Waller

is basically saying there's seemingly an

endless demand for safety and liquidity

which you would then think that people

would would realize why is there demand

for safety and liquidity if we're

heading into a soft Landing or if we're

heading into an inflationary environment

the last thing that's going to be in

demand is safety and liquidity but we

see time and again demand for safety and

liquidity in form of government bonds

but also in the form of safety that's

gold so demand for safety and liquidity

in treasuries demand for safety in

gold as far as treasuries go treasury

yields are falling back to back down

again in fact the the 10year treasury

today was about

4.14% which is its lowest in over a

month which rais raes a couple of

questions here a couple possibilities as

we've been saying all along after an

enormous huge historic rally in the bond

market we expected interest rates would

back up and go maybe sideways to

slightly higher for a couple months well

it's been a couple months and unless

something substantial has changed we do

expect another leg lower in interest

rates could we be seeing that now and if

we are what would that mean well if we

do see another leg lower in treasury

rates that would mean demand for safety

and liquidity and that if if there was

other corroborating evidence for

especially the safety part that make

make that may make the possibility even

more compelling so let's talk about gold

gold is commonly cited as an inflation

hedge when in truth it is a terrible

inflation hedge that is a misconception

that has developed over many years now

you go back to the 1970s the great

inflation gold was a terrific hedge but

not against inflation it was a hedge

against broadly speaking some of the

worst monetary and financial

circumstances that just so happened to

be inflationary real inflationary so it

isn't that gold was a hedge against

inflation gold was a hedge against gross

monetary errors and incompetence and you

can see this in any number of ways think

about the 1980s plot the price of gold

against the CPI the CPI vastly

outperforms gold in the 198 80s Now

consumer prices were still rising at a

relatively decent unhealthy rate but it

was nothing like the great inflation but

still consumer prices were rising and

gold prices were at best flat to lower

depending upon where you start your

measurement if you start measuring

before the last surge in 79 and 80 gold

prices were relatively flat through the

1980s even as consumer Prices rose and

that continued in the 1990s consumer

prices they more disinflationary they

didn't stop Rising gold prices actually

declined and got down to around $300 an

ounce by the year 2000 even as consumer

prices continued to move higher so as a

hedge against normal inflation or

disinflationary levels of consumer

prices gold underperformed drastically

and it wasn't really until July 2005

that gold finally caught its big bid the

21st century bid was that because of

inflation risk or was it because gold

investors and its demand for its hedging

properties understood the risk of the

housing bubble another gross massive

monetary error just in the opposite

direction as the 1970s gold surged

heading into the global not financial

crisis the pandemic era or the 2020s era

is it behaved contrary to the popular

misconception about gold being an

inflation head gold served during the

pandemic and lockdowns up until August

of 2020 and then once consumer prices

really started to go go up in 20121 gold

was flat to lower and it was flat it was

flat to lower until March of 2022 got a

little bit of a rally and then sank with

Rising interest rates up until October

of 2022 once the yield curve really

started to invert and more heavily

invert and not just the US Treasury

curve but around the rest of the world

that's when gold started to rise now it

looks a lot like the stock market has

behaved over the last couple years but

that's because gold corresponds to the

safety bid lower interest rates not only

is it higher demand for safety the

opportunity cost of holding gold is safe

instruments that yield that yield

something so as as the bond market and

interest rates in the bond market

started to level off and invert you can

see the demand for gold rise lower

opportunity cost but also also the same

demand for safety gold and treasuries

are in one sense two sides of the same

coin so Christopher Waller's twist last

week the reverse twist was really a big

nothing it's the FED talking mechanics

of an ideal portfolio however he did

recognize that QT isn't a problem

because I wish he would recognize the

next step or maybe he does he doesn't

want to say it

demand for safety in liquidity seems to

be un no bottom to it but as we've seen

the big rally last year and into this

year and now gold price is reaching a

record high we have to ask there's this

bottomless demand for safety and

liquidity that seems to be even more

bottomless just recently why might that

be demand for safety and liquidity

treasury yields go down even as the FED

says we have no plans to cut rates well

maybe that's the case but the the market

is moving lower anyway gold prices are

moving higher what would cause demand

for safety and liquidity to increase

over and above what it has been for all

this prolonged period to begin with and

there's any number of reasons for it

that's the recession risk the

deflationary recession risk the problems

in commercial real estate may be

starting to Bubble Up China China's real

estate problems we just talked about

this yesterday with China vany any

number of reasons that would that would

explain beond Christopher Waller's uh

concluding remarks what's really

happening in the marketplace why is

there so much demand for safety and

liquidity in form of treasuries but also

safety in the form of gold with

everything from recession to real estate

globally it actually makes a lot more

sense than a reverse operation

twist money risks and money Evolution

well I just had a good conversation with

Manny ringcon Cruz about that very topic

the crypto bubble what's actually behind

it and where the Boom is in the crypto

space that's the video I've got link

below as always I thank you for joining

me huge thank you your doll University

members and subscribers until next time

take

care