TESOURO IPCA+ 2045 ou 2029? | QUAL O MELHOR PARA 2025? IPCA+8%?

Summary

In this video, the speaker explains the dynamics of investing in Brazil's Tesouro Direto bonds, including Tesouro Selic, Tesouro Prefixado, and Tesouro IPCA+. They clarify the differences between short- and long-term bond options, the risks involved, and how to choose the right investment based on factors such as interest rates, market conditions, and personal goals. The video also touches on strategies like laddering, diversification, and understanding the impact of inflation. It provides insights into achieving better returns while minimizing risk, emphasizing the importance of a tailored approach to investment.

Takeaways

• 😀 Investing in Tesouro Direto (Brazilian government bonds) means lending money to the government, which has never defaulted on its internal debt.
• 😀 The Tesouro Selic is the least risky option and offers a yield linked to the Selic rate, which is a post-fixed investment.
• 😀 The Tesouro Pré-Fixado offers a fixed interest rate over its life, but its value can fluctuate due to market conditions, especially with changes in interest rates.
• 😀 The Tesouro IPCA+ is a hybrid investment that adjusts for inflation, offering protection against inflation with a fixed interest rate on top.
• 😀 When selecting between Tesouro Selic, Pré-Fixado, and IPCA+, it’s essential to consider the time horizon, risk appetite, and tax impact on the final yield.
• 😀 In times of high interest rates, shorter-term investments may offer higher returns than long-term ones, due to an inverted interest rate curve.
• 😀 A diversified approach, such as a ladder strategy, can help balance risk and return by spreading investments across different maturities and types of bonds.
• 😀 The risk of reinvestment arises from the potential for lower future rates when reinvesting coupon payments or maturing investments.
• 😀 In the past 10 and 20 years, Tesouro IPCA+ investments have provided solid returns, with slightly better performance over longer horizons due to the higher inflation-adjusted yields.
• 😀 Understanding the impact of market fluctuations, interest rate changes, and inflation is crucial when choosing between bond options to avoid selling at a loss or reinvesting at lower rates.
• 😀 The Clube do Valor uses a diversified strategy for clients, balancing inflation-protected bonds, fixed-rate bonds, and private credit instruments to optimize returns while managing risk.

Q & A

What is the key difference between the shorter-term and longer-term government bonds mentioned in the script?

The key difference is that shorter-term bonds, such as those maturing in 2029, tend to offer higher interest rates compared to longer-term bonds, like those maturing in 2045. This inverse relationship between bond duration and interest rates is part of a broader trend observed in the current market environment.

What are the main types of government bonds available for investment in Brazil's Treasury Direct program?

The main types of bonds available are the Tesouro Selic (post-fixed), Tesouro Pré-Fixado (pre-fixed), and Tesouro IPCA+ (hybrid, combining both post-fixed and inflation-linked characteristics).

What are the risks associated with investing in government bonds?

While government bonds are generally considered safe in terms of credit risk, you can still lose money due to market fluctuations. The value of a bond may decrease if interest rates rise, especially in pre-fixed or inflation-linked bonds.

How does Tesouro Selic work and why is it considered low-risk?

Tesouro Selic is a post-fixed bond whose return is tied to the Selic rate, which fluctuates. It’s considered low-risk because it offers steady growth, reflecting changes in the Selic rate, and the government has never defaulted on its domestic debt.

How do pre-fixed bonds differ from post-fixed bonds like Tesouro Selic?

In pre-fixed bonds, the interest rate is set at the time of investment, allowing you to know your returns in advance. In contrast, post-fixed bonds like Tesouro Selic have returns that depend on the fluctuating Selic rate, meaning the final return is not determined upfront.

What are the implications of the bond price fluctuating due to changes in interest rates, and how does this affect investors?

When interest rates rise, the price of existing bonds typically falls. This means that investors who sell their bonds before maturity may face a loss if the bond's price drops. However, holding the bond to maturity guarantees the agreed-upon interest rate.

Why did the Tesouro IPCA+ bonds lose value over the past year?

The Tesouro IPCA+ bonds lost value because interest rates rose significantly during that time. The bond's price drops as interest rates rise due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates.

How does inflation impact the return on Tesouro IPCA+ bonds?

Tesouro IPCA+ bonds are inflation-linked, meaning their return consists of the inflation rate (IPCA) plus a fixed interest rate. If inflation rises, the bond's return increases, but if inflation falls, the return decreases accordingly.

What is the 'mark-to-market' phenomenon and how does it affect investors?

Mark-to-market refers to the process of adjusting the value of an investment to reflect its current market price. In the case of government bonds, this means their price may fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates, which could lead to short-term losses for investors if they sell the bond before maturity.

What investment strategy does the speaker recommend for managing risk in bond investments?

The speaker recommends a 'ladder strategy,' which involves diversifying bond investments across different maturities (short-term, medium-term, and long-term) to reduce reinvestment risk. This approach helps balance risks and returns by investing in both inflation-linked and pre-fixed bonds, as well as including private credit securities.