TAXA SELIC VAI SUBIR! ATÉ QUANTO VAI AUMENTAR? O QUE VAI ACONTECER COM SEUS INVESTIMENTOS?

Summary

The script discusses the Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 17-18, 2024, where the SELIC rate is expected to rise, contrary to earlier expectations of a decrease. It compares Brazil's situation with the US Federal Reserve's actions, where rates are expected to fall. The video outlines investments that benefit from higher SELIC rates, such as TESOURO SELIC, CDs, LCI, and LSAS, while highlighting how stocks and real estate funds might suffer. It also suggests that funds investing in real estate receivables and atypical long-term real estate funds can benefit from interest rate hikes.

Takeaways

• 📈 The Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meets on September 17th and 18th to decide on the SELIC interest rate, which is expected to rise contrary to earlier expectations of a decrease.
• 🌎 On the same days, the US Federal Reserve will also be deciding on the US interest rates, which are expected to start falling.
• 📉 Historically, Brazil's SELIC rate had been as high as 13.75% in late July but has since seen reductions.
• 💹 The expectation at the beginning of the year was for interest rates to decrease, but now they are expected to rise again, which is a disappointment for investors.
• 📊 A survey of 61 financial institutions predicts that the SELIC rate will rise by 0.25 percentage points from 10.50% to 10.75%, with some expecting a rise to 11% or even 11.50%.
• 💰 Investments that benefit from rising SELIC rates include Selic-linked Treasury bonds, post-fixed CDBs, LCI and LSAs, and post-fixed fixed-income funds.
• 📉 Investments negatively affected by rising interest rates are stocks and real estate funds, as higher rates increase borrowing costs and compete with fixed-income investments for attractiveness.
• 🏦 Real estate funds that invest in long-term, atypical contracts are somewhat protected from the negative impacts of rising interest rates.
• 📚 For a deeper analysis on these topics, the speaker invites viewers to check out the HOB Correa Research channel for more on stocks, real estate funds, and international investments.
• 💼 For personalized investment consultancy, viewers are directed to click on the provided link in the video description or comments to get in touch with the speaker's team.

Q & A

What is the purpose of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Brazil?

The purpose of the meeting is to decide the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy, known as the SELIC rate.

When did the Monetary Policy Committee meet to discuss the SELIC rate?

The Monetary Policy Committee met on September 17th and 18th, 2024.

What was the expectation for the SELIC rate at the beginning of the year according to the script?

At the beginning of the year, the expectation was that the SELIC rate would decrease.

How did the trend of the SELIC rate change according to the script?

The trend changed from a decrease to an increase, which was unexpected and contrary to initial expectations.

What is the current SELIC rate in Brazil as of the script's recording?

As of the script's recording, the SELIC rate was 10.50%, and there were expectations for it to rise further.

What is the relationship between the SELIC rate and the performance of variable income investments?

When the SELIC rate increases, variable income investments such as stocks, real estate funds, and variable income funds generally perform better.

How does the increase in the SELIC rate affect the stock market according to the script?

An increase in the SELIC rate can lead to a decrease in stock prices because it raises the cost of borrowing, which can reduce company profits and make stocks less attractive compared to fixed-income investments.

What are some investments that benefit from an increase in the SELIC rate?

Investments that benefit from an increase in the SELIC rate include fixed-income funds, such as Treasury SELIC, post-fixed CDs, LCI, and LSAs, as their returns are linked to the SELIC rate.

What are the potential negative impacts of an increase in the SELIC rate on investments?

An increase in the SELIC rate can negatively impact investments like stocks and real estate funds, as it raises the cost of borrowing and makes fixed-income investments more attractive, leading to a potential decrease in their prices.

What is the expected trend for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate according to the script?

Contrary to Brazil's SELIC rate, the script suggests that the US Federal Reserve's interest rate is expected to decrease.

How does the script suggest investors should react to the changing interest rate environment?

The script suggests that investors should consider the impact of interest rate changes on different investment types and possibly adjust their portfolios to benefit from rising rates or protect against their negative effects.