'It's on - what will the 2024 election be like?'
Summary
TLDRIn this episode of 'Electoral Dysfunction,' hosts Beth and Ruth discuss the unexpected announcement of a July 4th election by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. They delve into the possible reasons behind the sudden decision, speculate on the upcoming six-week campaign, and address the technicalities of what happens with Parliament during this period. The conversation also touches on the human aspect of politics, the challenges faced by MPs, and the potential impact of the election on the country. Amidst the serious discussion, they also comment on the PM's optics during his announcement, highlighting the importance of presentation in politics.
Takeaways
- 📅 The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has called for a snap election on July 4th, catching many by surprise.
- ☕️ Beth, one of the speakers, mentions her personal routine of needing two cups of tea before moving on to coffee, indicating a change in her day due to the election announcement.
- 🎥 There is a discussion about the secrecy surrounding the election call, with Beth giving credit to Rishi Sunak for keeping it under wraps.
- 🗣️ There is speculation about why the election is being held now, with theories ranging from economic factors to potential scandals.
- 💬 Mention of a rumor about more scandals potentially emerging ('SAS in the pipeline'), suggesting that preempting bad news might be a reason for the sudden election call.
- 🏛️ The dissolution of Parliament is discussed, with the official campaign starting after the dissolution on May 31st.
- 📉 The transcript touches on economic issues such as inflation rates and wage growth, suggesting these are factors in the election timing.
- 🌧️ The poor optics of Rishi Sunak's speech, delivered in the rain, are criticized, with suggestions that it might negatively impact his campaign.
- 📉 There is concern expressed about the need for a clearer narrative from the Labour party, beyond just the promise of 'change'.
- 🤝 The potential for tactical voting and the importance of local campaigns in securing a majority are highlighted as key aspects of the election strategy.
- 👥 Personal stories and the human aspect of politics are also discussed, with the impact of the election call on MPs' personal lives and relationships being considered.
Q & A
Why did Rishi Sunak decide to call for an election on July 4th?
-The transcript suggests several theories: Sunak may need a new narrative as he hasn't clearly articulated why he called the election; there might be positive financial news that he wants to capitalize on, such as inflation rates dropping; there could be upcoming scandals that he wants to preempt; and there may be internal party pressure or defections that he's trying to address by calling the election sooner rather than later.
What was the reaction of MPs when they realized the election was happening?
-Many MPs were unhappy and shocked. Some were texting the hosts of the podcast, expressing disbelief and concern, calling the decision 'madness'. There was also a sense of sadness as some MPs were saying goodbye to colleagues they've worked with for years, realizing their political careers might be ending abruptly.
How did the hosts of the podcast describe the mood in the Labour party upon the announcement of the election?
-The initial mood in the Labour party was a mix of pep and anticipation, with a sense of finally getting what they had been asking for. However, there was also a feeling of shock and the realization that the election campaign will be a challenging period.
What is the significance of the phrase 'who dares wins' mentioned in the transcript?
-The phrase 'who dares wins' was used by Michael Gove in cabinet, which is a motto of the SAS. It signifies a bold and daring approach, suggesting that the Prime Minister and his team are ready to take bold steps and are confident in their victory. However, it also carries historical context, as Michael Portillo used the same phrase before losing a leadership election.
What are the challenges that the Labour party faces in the upcoming election campaign?
-The Labour party faces the challenge of setting a clear narrative for the election. They need to go beyond just promising change and lay out their vision for the country. Additionally, they must perform well under pressure and scrutiny, as they are expected to win but could face criticism if they do not meet high expectations.
Why was the decision to hold the election in the summer described as 'brave' by some?
-The decision to hold the election in the summer is considered brave because it goes against the traditional timing of elections in the fall. Summer elections are less common and could be seen as a bold move to catch the opposition off guard.
What does the term 'candidate's disease' refer to in the context of the election?
-The term 'candidate's disease' refers to the feeling of uncertainty and anxiety that every candidate experiences during an election campaign. It's the fear that they might lose, which is particularly strong right after the election is announced but tends to lessen as the campaign progresses.
How did the hosts of the podcast describe the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement of the election?
-The hosts criticized the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement, pointing out that he was drenched in the rain, which could be seen as a poor visual metaphor. They also mentioned that the setting and the circumstances of the announcement were not well planned and could negatively impact public perception.
What is the significance of the Victims Bill mentioned in the transcript?
-The Victims Bill is significant legislation that includes provisions for compensation and is aimed at supporting victims of crime. It has been a focus of substantial work and effort by MPs, and its potential failure to pass could lead to public uproar.
What does the term 'uniform swing' mean in the context of election predictions?
-The term 'uniform swing' refers to the idea that if a political party gains support in one area, it will gain support by the same proportion in other areas as well. However, the hosts point out that this is not necessarily the case, as tactical voting and regional differences can lead to varying results.
What is the role of the Prime Minister's campaign team in the election?
-The Prime Minister's campaign team is responsible for strategizing and executing the campaign, including messaging, optics, and overall planning. They play a crucial role in managing the Prime Minister's image and ensuring the campaign's success.
What is the process that will take place after the announcement of the election?
-After the announcement, Parliament will continue to sit until Friday, and then it will dissolve on the following Thursday. The official election campaign, known as the short campaign, will start on May 31st, when spending rules and other regulations come into effect.
How will the dissolution of Parliament affect MPs and their staff?
-After the dissolution, MPs are no longer MPs but become candidates in the election. Their staff can continue to work on casework, and MPs are expected to maintain their duties, including helping constituents with inquiries and issues.
What is the significance of Craig Mackinlay's return to Parliament after his battle with sepsis?
-Craig Mackinlay's return to Parliament after losing his hands and feet to sepsis is significant as it highlights his resilience and determination. He aims to raise awareness about sepsis and its preventability, and his case underscores the importance of seeking medical attention promptly for potentially life-threatening conditions.
Outlines
🗣️ Surprise Election Announcement
The paragraph discusses the unexpected announcement of a July 4th election by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, which catches everyone off guard. Beth and Ruth, the speakers, share their personal experiences and reactions to the sudden news. They delve into the rumors and the atmosphere of disbelief that surrounded the announcement, highlighting the secrecy with which Sunak managed the situation. The paragraph also touches on the immediate implications for Parliament and the political campaigns that are about to unfold.
🤔 Speculations on Election Timing
This paragraph delves into the reasons behind the surprise election call. The speakers, Ruth and Beth, theorize that Sunak may be trying to capitalize on positive economic indicators, such as falling inflation rates and consecutive months of wage growth over inflation. They also speculate on potential scandals that could have influenced the timing and discuss the discontent within Sunak's party, including rumors of defections and a possible confidence vote against the Prime Minister. The paragraph also mentions the impact on MPs who are now facing an immediate election campaign, disrupting their plans and personal farewells.
📉 Political and Economic Implications
The speakers continue to dissect the political climate, discussing the dissatisfaction among MPs and the potential reasons for Sunak's decision to hold an election now. They touch on the economy, suggesting that despite positive indicators, the public may not feel any better off. The paragraph also addresses the challenges Sunak faces, including the inability to fulfill promises such as the deportation flights to Rwanda and the pressure from the Bank of England's monetary policy. The conversation highlights the human aspect of politics, as friendships and long-term working relationships are abruptly interrupted by the election call.
🌧️ Optics of the Election Launch
This paragraph focuses on the visual and symbolic aspects of the election announcement. The speakers critique the decision to hold the announcement outside in poor weather conditions, which led to the Prime Minister being drenched in rain. They discuss the impact of this on the public's perception and how it might be remembered more than the content of the announcement itself. The paragraph also contrasts this with the more polished and professional appearance of the opposition leader, Keir Starmer, highlighting the potential political implications of these optics.
📣 Campaign Narratives and Public Expectations
The conversation shifts to the upcoming election campaign, with a focus on the narratives that will be presented by both Sunak and Starmer. The speakers predict that Sunak will emphasize the choice between stability and change, while Starmer will campaign on a platform of 'change.' They also discuss the challenges each party faces, including the need for the Labour party to define its vision for the country and the pressure on Sunak to present a compelling argument for his continued leadership. The paragraph underscores the importance of setting the right narrative and the risks of focusing solely on negative campaigning.
🏛️ Parliamentary Process and Personal Impact
This paragraph outlines the procedural aspects of the election process, including the dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign. The speakers discuss the continuation of MPs' work for their constituents during the transition from MPs to candidates. They also touch on personal stories of MPs affected by the sudden election call, such as Craig McKinley, who returned to Parliament after a severe bout of sepsis that required the amputation of his limbs. The paragraph highlights the resilience and determination of MPs in the face of personal adversity and the demands of the political process.
📅 Election Campaign Logistics and Future Plans
The final paragraph addresses the logistics of the upcoming election campaign, with a focus on the timeline and the activities of the speakers. They discuss the immediate plans for the campaign, including the recording of 'electoral dysfunction' and their roles in covering the election for Sky News. The paragraph concludes with a reflection on the uncertainty of the future and the commitment of the speakers to continue their political engagement and commentary throughout the campaign.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Election
💡Parliament
💡Prime Minister
💡Dissolving Parliament
💡Campaign
💡Inflation
💡Confidence Vote
💡Sepsis
💡Tactical Voting
💡Optics
💡Candidate's Disease
Highlights
Unexpected election announcement and its impact on the hosts and MPs.
The hosts share their initial disbelief and reactions to the election news.
Discussion on Rishi Sunak's decision to call an election and the secrecy surrounding it.
Speculation about the reasons behind the sudden election call, including financial and political motivations.
Mentions of potential scandals and their influence on the timing of the election.
Reflection on the human aspect of politics, with goodbyes and friendships affected by the election.
Analysis of the political climate and the challenges faced by both major parties.
Concerns about the Prime Minister's ability to campaign effectively.
The importance of setting a narrative for the election and the potential pitfalls for the Labour party.
The significance of the election campaign launch and the optics of Rishi Sunak's announcement.
Criticism of the campaign launch strategy and its potential impact on public perception.
The role of tradition in political campaigning and its relevance in modern elections.
Insights into the workings of Parliament and the process following the election call.
The continuation of MPs' work for their constituents despite the election campaign.
Plans for Sky News' election night coverage featuring the hosts and other prominent figures.
The emotional impact of the election on MPs and candidates, including the fear of losing their seats.
Transcripts
how many drinks do you have
there I haven't had my morning tea so I
need really two cups of tea then I move
on to Coffee by I've gone the other way
Everything's changed
overnight right should we start yeah
okay hello here we are this wasn't quite
what we were expecting welcome to
electoral dysfunction this is me Beth
I'm recovering from a worldwind day it
was only when I saw myself on the news
reported it that I believed it to be
true anyway uh chess where were you I
had such
disbelief that he was going to call an
election yesterday that it wasn't really
until about 11:00 at night and when I
walked out of Westminster you know
potentially for the very last time I
sort of don't believe it so yeah here we
are and Ruth where were you when you
realized July 4th was actually happening
so I was uh on my way to give a speech
at veterans event in Edinburgh our
podcast recording was supposed to be
recorded yesterday i' I'd walked off a
train cuz I got the phone called to say
oh no we're not doing that best been
said to stand outside number 10 mute has
arrived we are going to talk about that
why has sunak decided to go now what can
we expect from the next 6 weeks and also
what about the technical stuff what
happens now what happens with Parliament
how does the campaign start and also uh
the WhatsApp phone and the inbox have
been red hot uh since rishy sunac got
soaking wet on Downing Street as he
confirmed a July 4th election I hope
that Suits been to the dry cleaners he
was absolutely drenched we'll come back
to that you can WhatsApp voice note us
on 07934
20004 or email us electoral dysfunction
at sky.
should we start with a rumor meal there
was a frenzy wasn't there and I was
getting some information from my sources
but it wasn't information that I could
say yes or no I just didn't know no one
knew what really freaked me out though
or made me feel very anxious I felt
quite sick at the beginning of the day
cuz it's the anxiety of not known like
once you're going to the races off you
go you put your hat on you get suit on
you out the door um but what I was
getting was from people that would
normally quietly turn me away from these
election rumors I just had radio silence
or non denials and it made me really
really nervous and I thought something
something's going on but at the same
time it was hard to imagine that he was
actually going to call it then for all
of the reasons we've discussed in theast
I genuinely I'm going to cut rishy sunak
a tiny bit of slack and give him some
credit here is that I have never known a
politician pull off a secret like rishy
sunak genuinely nobody saw this coming
so he obviously keeps Good Counsel is
what I would say tell rishy sunak your
secrets he's keeping him there were a
few things that were a foot because
Cameron had been on a trip and came I
think it was wasn't it they put a
massive poster of him up and then he
just put it off came back early Grant
shaps cancelled a trip and then there
were other bits and pieces that were
really ramping this up that we were
getting yesterday so then one former
cabinet minister found me and said you
know he had all the civil servants in
last week talking about the timing of
election so they were telling him if you
want to go in the summer you've either
got to do it this week or the first
three days after we come back from
Recess because otherwise it'll be too
late because you got to have a certain
period of notice then someone was saying
to me oh no we've just moved cabinet
because um he was in Austria the day
before so there was sort of there were
signs and then there were sort of being
slightly knocked down but not completely
knocked down anyway in a way it's all by
the B cuz we're going now aren't we
we're doing it but look why why now why
on Earth now I mean I've got a bit of uh
Intel on that from number 10 what we
should do is me and Ruth should give you
our theories as to why and then you can
give give us the actual Intel yes okay
Ruth why do you think he's going now
well I think he needs to have a story
ready to go cuz he's done the morning
rounds of TV after he's called this
election and it was bold and he's not
known for being courageous and stuff so
it did genuinely catch everyone on the
Hop but he he hasn't actually said why
and I think the problem with that is
that other people will fill in why so
all the speculation is about the idea
that he wanted to have a giveaway budget
in the Autumn or or fiscal statement in
the Autumn but he's got no headro to do
it so there's no money left basically so
he couldn't do anything so a bit of good
uh financial news on on Wednesday in
that inflation's down to 2.3% wages have
been growing for for 9 months
consecutively over inflation so he
thinks people are beginning to feel it
working to be honest I think people will
just say that it was terrible he had
lots of defections he wants to get in
before the boats really ramp up over the
summer and actually the bank of
England's uh mon policy committees not
really playing ball with bringing
interest rates down to match inflation
rates and that might be a late summer
thing so that might be in August but he
can genuinely say now if they go in July
you know we've done our bit we're just
waiting on this to happen and there will
be jam tomorrow as and your your
mortgage rates will come down I
absolutely love that rishy suak thinks
people in the country are obsessing
about the inflation figures he will be
yeah he will be he absolutely he sees
everything in like a sort of
macroeconomic terms and and like people
are going to be like Co it is good that
the milk's only going up by two pence in
the pound like I mean it's just it's
absolutely it's crackers but anyway so
the other thing I think is that I think
that there was potentially about to be
some more scandals and oh have you heard
any uh oh know what I'm not going to say
I think that there was about to be
probably some more scandals of people
who I think are probably going to stand
down in fact they definitely are have
you heard something about this because
you just alerted me to a bat phone
message I got on my phone last night
saying this is from a very senior
conservative Source there was more SAS
in the pipeline uh they said about there
was uh some stuff about bad conduct
problematic behaviors which would go in
to get worse 100% so and I think and
it's people quite close to rishy sunx so
I think it was about to get worse on a
number of fronts and he just thought
it yeah and I can say actually hat
tip to richy soon because my entire
political career is just going it
let's just give it a go well
so so from from MP's points of view I I
think it's fair to say Ruth I'm sure
you've picked up a bit of this people
are really really really unhappy I was
in Downing Street I had uh former
cabinet ministers MPS texting me going
what is he doing this is absolute
Madness from their point of view there
was one minut Minister uh who said to me
that they thought that he could be
facing a confidence vote or that the
letters were going in again that was
what one person said so it's from a
position of weakness well hilariously
apparently since he's called it more and
more letters have gone in because
although he's had it approved by the
palace actually parliament's like wash
up hasn't finished yet so parliament's
not been shot so they know I I can't
even say it I think I'm saying these
words out loud this group of people have
been such Paper Tigers at any of the
that they could have stepped in and
really done something think they can now
do a rear guard action to stop a general
election once Pandora out the bloody box
this is from one of my uh sources really
late last night which was there's a lot
going around on some WhatsApp groups
about how there is still a route to stop
a general election this person says they
are utterly clueless and we are in deep
trouble but also I have to say at the 22
last night um I was told that a sitting
Minister asked publicly whether they
could submit a letter of no confidence
uh I do know who it is I'm not going to
say who it is or should I say who it is
yeah go on yeah I mean I've got it from
three sources I I was told it was Andrew
leadsom that doesn't surprise me because
ledum is what you know like whether I
think that this is a stupid thing to do
she is somebody with balls like she's
she she she she stands and says what she
thinks well Andrea I asked Andrea I
didn't put her name out last night cuz I
wanted to check with her first because I
did have it from three sources anyway
she uh basically said basically she got
back to me and said it's a private
meeting discussions are confidential
which which it is uh but also also uh
leaks but she didn't deny it um it's
just extra the she would never lie to
you no but also the Optics can you
imagine that like a minister standing up
in front of the party going Can I submit
a letter of no confidence in the Prime
Minister a former candidate that got
down to the last toe Min to bee Minister
leer know we've rolled through so many I
was I just had to Che myself there for a
second but but I think you know for me
some of the sad part is you saw other
people like Tracy Crouch who went on
Twitter to to kind of publicly say um
you know I thought I had an extra six
months cuz she'd already announced she
was standing down she'd been a sports
Minister she'd had cancer she's got
young kids like there was a whole load
of reasons why she was standing down
she's like God there was some stuff I
still wanted to do some questions I
still wanted to ask yesterday most of my
afternoon
was and people won't realize this at all
was saying goodbye to people who I've
been friends with for like a decade
people you have been in a scrum in a
difficult time like when Joe died know
imagine being in that room and and
they're not from my political party but
saying goodbye I didn't see Tracy crch
and I texted her this morning and just
said I feel like I've been robbed of
saying goodbye to you I I gave Alex
chalk a cuddle in the T room at like
10:00 last night explain who he is Alex
chalk is the Secretary of State for
justice his seat is his seat is chelam
he he had a majority of like in the
hundred I mean he is totally gone he's a
nice guy though isn't he and some of
these people like you know I wouldn't
vote for them don't get me wrong but to
suddenly have to imagine your business
is just shutting today and people you've
worked with for a decade you're going to
walk away from them you all live in
different parts of the country I felt
genuine sad this is something that you
know in the cut and thrust of politics
and doing what I do this is what we
don't talk about that much but it's the
sort of human aspect of it because
suddenly you know turning on a six pence
all of these MPS who thought they had a
few months before an election to get
their house in order suddenly they're
like we're in a campaign I could lose my
job I haven't had chance to say goodbye
to my friends it's absolutely brutal
isn't it just coming in though as we are
talking just about the flights the
reason I know this in the recording is
someone has sent this to me uh Rishi
sunak confirms Rwanda flights will not
take off before the election if I'm
elected I'll get the flights off after
the election he says preparations for
the first flights will go on regardless
of the election someone just sent this
to me from the conservative benches with
one word terrible yeah yeah so look this
was uh one of the reasons that some of
his MPS thought he might be going that
he doesn't get the flights away he said
he'd get them away in the summer have
they been snared up yeah I mean I think
that we're getting to the why and by by
the weekend we'll we'll have all the
wise whether it's scandals that were
going to come out whether it's flights
Logistics weren't going to take off can
I just say though I I actually I think
you can level many things at the prime
minister's door I don't think selfish is
necessarily what I would use because I
don't think he would be choosing a time
where he thinks the largest number of
his MPS will go he'll be thinking that
you know summer there's a feel-good
factor we're about to get into the well
Scotland will have qualified for the
quarterfinals little England might have
done they might not have for the quarter
finals of the Dig there oh come on you
guys are heavily tipped to top your
group and and get a lot further than the
quarters um but but you know I'm not
going to get to watch it now am I though
no no so if there are any parliamentary
candidates in Scotland who've got
tickets for Germany that now can't take
them off do get in touch cuz I'll
happily take them off your hands for you
but I don't think the Prime Minister was
being selfish with this and also I don't
think allowing a couple of hundred
people to get an extra six months wages
in terms of MPS actually is selfishness
I think I think MPS worrying about where
the six months wages are coming from
that could be considered selfish well
for what it's worth I can give you a bit
of what the spin machine was spinning at
me
yesterday so some some things I picked
up was that um there had been these
discussions going on we all knew that we
felt it had sort of dis ipated a bit
after the locals the sort of immediate
threat to his authority had dissipated
and actually the party I would say is
appear dare I say it almost a little bit
you know better behaved since the local
elections right so at that point
journalistically you think n it looks
like it looks like the kind of Summer
election is over Ruth laughing at me but
she believed it too baby I just I I just
think that calling two defections in two
weeks including crossing the Flor
directly before pmqs has better behaved
no I know know how bad it's gone yeah I
mean that the Baseline keeps dropping so
what I what I've picked up is that there
was this finely balanced decision that
there were these discussions going on
summer autumn summer autumn apparently
Oliver daen the Deputy Prime Minister
was very keen to go early and he's very
close to the PM as is Alex chalk
actually who we were talking about
earlier I heard that Isaac lovo who's
the actual campaign Chief Linton
Crosby's prote we were talking about in
the pig on the way to Market Barnacles
off your boats apparently he wanted to
go long because maybe as Ruth was
talking about last swe he wanted to hone
the message apparently the Prime
Minister took loads of soundings from
different people it is his decision and
his decision alone right uh and I think
that probably a handful of people would
have taken that decision in the room
that would have been James fory his
political secretary and Bei mate used to
be the political editor of The Spectator
there would have been Liam boo Smith his
chief of staff you know barely anyone in
the room when he decides it right so why
did they go
now part of what we touched on earlier
about the economy right is there's been
10 months of wage growth and 10 months
of falling inflation it's now to 2.3%
which is near the bank of England Target
do people feel any better off no and
also everybody's tied in my mortgage
went up to nearly ,000 a month and it's
like I'm tied in for 5 years so even if
they had reduced the interest rate
actually going to annoy most of the
people who've got there they can't and
this is exactly it so I was chatting
with someone who was sort of we were
talking about this cuz I was saying hang
on a minute I thought you were going to
wait for this upturn of the economy and
I think what might be going on is a sort
of admission within all of this that one
people are not going to feel materially
better off under Rishi Sun's economic
plan in Autumn or summer right so you
might not get the interest rate cut
people had locked in anyway with
mortgages many people there isn't the
headro necessarily to do another tax cut
in the Autumn right so you're going to
say my plan is working and everyone's
like yeah you've been saying that for a
few months we don't feel it right so
there's that and Ruth exactly what you
were saying with the flights so he said
I'm going to get the flights away and
then you get to the Autumn and maybe the
flights haven't got away or the boats
are still coming so his pitch into the
election is it's a choice right and he
can go in and say I'm going to get the
flights away in the summer my economic
plan is working choose me or risk it
with that bloke so in a way they had to
weigh up when to go and and they went
for July but I think the issue as well
is you're also looking at the polls and
seeing there are consistent double digit
polling for reform catching them on the
Hop because they don't have the
infrastructure of big parties is
probably in the t's favor and and
reducing that will help also I I I think
there is more money in the war chest for
the Tories than labor my worry for this
election is it's going to be an awful
lot of people telling you why not to
vote for other people and I think in kir
starmer's view he's got the change thing
you know it's on his lect turns he says
it all the time but he hasn't got the
Hopey change thing we need more of the
The Hope from him of what he's going to
do and you're going to get a lot from Ry
sunak saying he's a flip flopper he
doesn't believe in anything he's gone
back in everything he ever say but then
you've also got K starmer that's going
to that's going to speak about the Prime
Minister not having delivered nothing in
the
works anymore blah blah blah so that the
targets for each are huge and somewhere
in there some election strategist or
advis is going to have to tell them to
tell people what you will do as well not
just what the other guy is going to do
badly well this is what one of sunak uh
people said to me about it last night
about the time in and why now they said
he's not afraid and he's completely and
utterly confident his confident that his
values and principles are aligned with
that of the public and he needs to
prosecute uh that argument I got to tell
you what Michael go said in cabinet cuz
you're going to enjoy this MH because I
know that you both love Michael go I get
on well with Michael he's he's good
company he's very good company he a r on
but what did he say in cabinet in
cabinet he said cuz I was quoted this
from one of sunak teams you're going to
love this he said in
cabinet who dares wins and you dare and
you are going to win I think Michael
shares an assessment the polls are quite
poor I think would be a euphemistically
way of putting it but also Michael Gove
is a bit of a political historian and
there is no way that he would have given
that quote without knowing that the last
person that invoked the SAS Mantra of
who dares wins was
Portillo and you know about elections
and Portillo one not becoming the leader
and flunking a leadership election and
two the Portillo moment in 1997 you
saying that trolling the Minister I'm
I'm not sure if he I mean I don't know
how cognizant he was at the time but
he's a dreadful flatterer oh you're oh
you're so brave prime minister oh and
whoever dares wins and you'll win blah
blah blah like I mean that is clear
Michael go I mean he's a dreadful
flatterer I love it I mean oh yeah me
too I fall for it every time smoke up
your ass every time he sees you it's
wonderful but yes I mean there is no way
that he won't make the reference with
Michael
portello well look let's let's move on
to the Optics of it
Jesus I was watching it and genuinely
whilst it was going on I I was just
reminded of the Teresa may speech where
she lost her voice and the set fell
apart oh my God no I was in the audience
for that that is literally the worst
Poli like honestly I mean I I don't
actually think I felt worse like I had
to leave the I was just watching it on a
television screen and I had to leave the
room and I felt a bit similar about
watching rishy sunak getting at why on
Earth would you not just get man with a
Broly to stand next to you because
you're on the rich list and you can't
have somebody standing with a Broly like
you one yourself well well one you could
open or you could just do it inside have
a set inside there's a few things about
it that I thought we realize that
there's there's going to be a statement
the whole press pack are now kind of
descending on Downing Street I mean you
know it's serious when like the big TV
anchors turn up and it was absolutely
pissing it down I mean I was Absolut
abolutely drenched and also I know this
is not important to anyone but me but my
Bob gets all fluffy and it really upsets
me I am going to buy some hair
straighteners that are rechargeable so
wherever I am I do not have a fluffy
Bob it was really unclear to me whether
he was going to come out and do the
podium or do it inside and I just
thought he's going to have to do this
inside so I'm on tellan I couldn't sort
of say I said it's going to be a
statement from Downing Street then the
podium guy as we call him came out and
the speakers came out I was like wow
he's coming out and there's a little
break in the rain and he comes out and
then it just starts chucking it down and
the Optics of a prime minister calling a
summer election on the basis that there
will be a brighter future with the
conservatives with storm clouds gray
weather drenched in Rain the Optics of
that I would argue that viewers on the
television what they will remember of
that day was the Prime Minister got
absolutely drenched you know he has to
work hard because he's so small and
petite to not look like a work
experienced kid anyway at an oversized
lecturn so the shots from the front look
okay the shots from the side look
terrible just because of the because how
chunky the Le is it chose I don't know
why he's not got a slicer Le to make it
less like that but being absolutely
drenched in his trousers that are still
American and far too short looks awful
but the boilerplate speech which was
uninspired that also talks about how
he's got a plan and the other guy hasn't
okay if your plan is so great why are
you planning to be outside in a
thunderstorm when your other man who
apparently got no plan has got like a
lovely presidential Podium and he's
inside and he's quite dry yeah this is
it honestly Ruth this is exactly what he
thought when I was doing I I was like
you're saying you have a plan but it
looks like you can't orchestrate this in
a way that doesn't look like a kind of
scene from a comedy show what was also
going on was that there was a massive
speaker at the bottom of downst Street
as he was speaking blaring out dreams
things can only get better which was of
course the anthem of Tony Blair's uh
1997 campaign and win and I think that
was putting the Prime Minister off a bit
then a few minutes later you get starma
and they've like mocked up the prime
minister's briefing room for journalists
so he's got wood paneling behind him
he's got two flags and he's standing at
electon like he is a prime minister
there's one word on the elector change
he's totally dry and it looks really
slick and professional so look I went
back to someone and said to them why on
Earth did you do it like that I said you
know you're going to get a backlash it
was disastrous the explanation was that
it's traditional that prime ministers
come out and declare
elections at a podium in the street and
that the Prime Minister wanted to do it
like that right so he he wanted it to be
traditional he want he wanted not
because he's on the rich list not to
have a Lackey holding an umbrella he
wouldn't have lost a single vote had he
done either of those things put it
inside nobody would have been like well
I'm not voting for him now because I
like the traditional Downing Street
outing or I'm not voting for him now
because he had someone holding an
umbrella over in the rain right he will
lose votes because of the way he
launched it that's the thing the idea of
tradition and all the rest of it well
that's great and all but like you're the
Prime Minister you make the Traditions
how incompetent do you have to
be to launch a campaign that badly and
how much do you not protect your boss by
allowing him to do it or encouraging him
to do it whoever launched that should
have no more import during this campaign
than making the tea and running to the
shop to get sandwiches have to say Ruth
that you're I really hate it like comms
isn't that hard but people make it hard
you you are you are not alone amongst
conservative colleagues in um relaying
this to me this is a visual business
right that it's symbolism isn't it like
wait for a break in the clouds okay how
hard is that okay well I think that Ruth
and Jess have decided that that was a
pretty dismal start I mean
metaphorically and literally with that
Bloody driving honestly I actually said
to the office at about half 6 I was like
you need to release me and let me back
to the office cuz I was like I'm going
to get a cold I was absolutely anyway
let's take a break for a moment and
we'll be back with some of your
questions and what's in store for the
next 6
weeks the next six weeks we've talked
about the start uh what's this election
going to be about what are the big
themes well for sunak it's about the
choice it's about sticking with him uh
he'll argue that they're turning the
corner on the economy he said from that
Lector as he got drenched now is the
moment for biton to choose its future
and for the prime minister to choose an
umbrella he did not say that bit um and
for starma it's like change actually one
of uh your colleagues just as the PM was
talking sent me a WhatsApp going
there'll be one word on his Elon it will
be changed this election we have One
Singular message change I mean I think
that is going to be the message that is
going to be the narrative um and
actually the narrative for Laborers now
they have a chance to set a narrative I
think the change thing is is brilliant
and it is what people want and that
would have been tested to death but it
that isn't enough so there is now this 6
weeks is the opportunity for the labor
party to go out and talk not I mean
we're not talking about necessarily like
small retail offers or even necessarily
big like we're going to do this but the
narrative is Theirs to set because rishy
sunak I mean actually I think his
narrative has been set by the terrible
Optics of of the way he launched the
campaign but also we can be heard in a
way that he can't be heard a little bit
at the moment and that is a real
opportunity for the labor party it's
also a massive opportunity to mess it up
we've had a WhatsApp from Nicola in
abine who says Ruth will he stay at B
good or does he move to anything else
now well I I mean I think if the polls
are anything to go by he's probably
going to move to unemployed at some
point but I I mean I think he's got to
show himself as a campaigner and I don't
think we've seen that and what's
interesting about this election is that
we've not seen either of them campaign
and Jess is absolutely right there is a
bigger microphone for the labor party
cuz everyone assumes that they're going
to romp to Victory but that comes with
huge danger one it invites scrutiny and
to test things and and one of the
charges that the prime minister laid in
his speech was that you know I don't
know what K starmer is going to do and I
don't think he does either because he's
not told anyone and actually that will
hit home with people however probably
not as much as nothing in Britain bloody
works so you know I I think the worry
that I have is that it's going to be a
depressing election because labor is not
going to want to tell people what going
to do in advance doesn't think it needs
to because it doesn't think it needs to
because it thinks that instead of
winning on things can only get better it
can win on well things can't get much
bloody worse so why not give us a try
now they might be right about that but I
actually think they're doing a
disservice you know to the public if
they don't have a stronger narrative and
lay out what their vision is for the
country and also what they're going to
do Jess what was the mood in the labor
party yesterday I mean the initial mood
so I am very very very close to most of
the people in the shadow cabinet and
nobody has ever infiltrated our WhatsApp
group I just like to say and so i' like
to hold my counsel and with trust in
these people the immediate thing was
like come on let's go and win this sort
of thing it was like pep but in
Westminster amongst the the members of
parliament that I saw it was just a bit
like shell shock as well and we're
saying goodbye to like I mean one of my
very best friends Holly Lynch the MP for
Halifax is standing down
and so the mood was tempered with both
those things but I would say pep and
just look finally like let like we've
all been asking for this it's funny when
you've all been asking for something and
then you get it like on Christmas
morning when you get like the Nintendo
you play it too much and then you're
like oh God actually I I I missed the
outsides uh like it is initially it was
just like we got this thing we were
asking for and it was like come on let's
go and do this I mean going back to the
things about missteps and what could go
wrong for starma and and polls and AR
and stuff like for labor like they have
wanted this election to go now they'd
wanted it in may they were hammering uh
the he's going to chicken out he's not
going to call the election and now they
have got what they wanted what they
wanted I messaged one of starmer's Team
actually last night I went this is great
timing for you isn't it and they
messaged back and said this is great for
the country and that will be the message
right I mean there's going to be a
wobble at some point there's going to be
some form of poll that is going to like
bring it to within single figures or
something like that and it's how does
labor party perform under pressure and
under scrutiny and I personally don't
think either kir starmer or Rishi sunak
are the best campaigners in their
parties so I think there could be a
little bit of maybot type stuff going on
there also let's not forget that labor
need the biggest swing yeah um that
we've seen in I think post-war history
to have a majority of one so I don't for
one second think that it is likely that
the Tories are going to come out of this
as the largest party but but I do think
that you know we just have to remember
that this isn't necessarily A landside
election and if everyone puts that on
the labor party and then suddenly it
looks like they're not then it looks
like they're underperforming and that
narrative can can become quite strong CU
a lot of people only tune in a fortnite
before yeah yeah I absolutely agree with
you and um it's the biggest uniform
swing ever to win an outright majority
it has to be bigger than
12.7% apparently I think that treat is
exactly right that people don't tune in
and week one people are paying a bit of
attention then they don't come back in
until about nine days before yesterday
when I rang my husband and said this is
going to get tiring he said what like he
didn't know that the election had been
called so I just want to a massive shout
out to most of the people in the country
who are are not paying the very close
attention that we think and so there a
couple of big incidences one way or the
other and for Teresa may it was the
nothing has changed moment a couple of
big incidences you'd be surprised how
much of a game change that can make and
so we have to be alive to that however
what you said about uniform swing you
don't need a uniform swing to win that's
the thing because there are going to
there's going to be a ton of tactical
voting so the lib Dems will P up votes
and seats where they're running second H
in Scotland you know labor will do great
in some seats the SNP and tories fight a
lot of the seats and and labor and the
lib Dems are third but a long way behind
so so for quite a lot of the country
you've got a top two and then you've got
it's not three-way races so uniform
swing is a bit of a misnomer you know
there was a reason that I asked starma
again a couple of weeks ago about a lib
Dem tie up because to get a majority is
a huge Endeavor it could be that labor
turn out to be the largest party without
a a clean majority he will not rule out
some sort of deal with the Liv Dems he
just wouldn't do it he did with the the
SNP I mean Jess also he's got the left
of the party as well so if he gets a
small majority he might find himself
pretty hamstrung right yeah yeah
absolutely although I did see some
brilliant analysis that that said if the
polling modeling that said that they
were going to get the the landslide
which I think is a nonsense that
somebody like me could set up an
entirely new political party and still
have enough members of parliament to be
the official opposition and stand
opposite kiss armor every week and just
say what a cracking job job you're doing
so you know it's a plan for the future
you know how worried are you about your
seat um I'm not not worried about my
seat I I think that I will win uh in my
seat but I think it will be a much
harder election than it would have been
a year ago because of the issues with
Gaza to be honest I've got candidates
disease and every single candidate will
have it every Member of Parliament today
even those who've got like a 50,000
majority and weigh their votes you think
you're going to lose like that's the gig
like that's what you do you go into it
like going oh God like all we're
thinking about is the pitfalls in front
of people all we will be talking about
is the power and the strength but the
truth is is every candidate and I won't
know until I'm there so I'm going back
there today and I'm not coming back to
London now that is it for me here I've
got my stuff in a in a paper bag my
knickers and things and I can't really
answer that question that candidate
Titus thing there's a really interesting
Journey that every candidate teach and
when an election is announced everyone
that holds it thinks they're going to
lose and everybody thinks at the
beginning it's going to be such a hard
SLO by the time the votes are counted
even if you know you know that your you
know your goal is to you know to save
your deposit to get 5% or whatever by
the time election day comes around you
always think that you've done enough or
that you righteously should become the
next Member of Parliament for that time
because you've worked so hard your
team's been so good you've done all the
effort you know like everybody thinks by
polling day that they deserve it it's
really interesting jour but also like
just the night when you are actually in
the studio and you are watching we've
got nearly 100 counts actually I should
also just quickly plug you electoral
dysfunctions uh I've got some wonderful
news which is Ruth and I are going to be
on set for Sky News all night on
Election night it's going to be me and
Ruth and Andy Burnham we're going to
have Trevor Phillips as well we've got
Ed Conway on the charts doing all the
graphs and stuff and then Kate Burley is
the anchor baby cof rid and then yes the
next day so that's the overnight show
and then the next day Sophie's anchoring
with the wash up and and day one of
whatever it will be uh with Sam my
colleague Sam coats and we've also got
Adam Bolton coming back baby oh yeah and
there Michael Thrasher doing all the
numbers as a topologist so it genuinely
is pretty heavyweight team you guys I
actually think there's nowhere else to
watch it bab I'm going to go to my count
and I'm going to find the camera and me
my son Danny are going to get on to Sky
News oh
God right so how is it going to play out
next week parliament's going to be
dissolved on the 30th the prime
minister's already been to see the king
Jess what happens between now and then I
was not really cognizant to all the
dissolution of parliament stuff CU I was
so in the zone yesterday what goes on
now so it's a good question that
literally everybody was asking yesterday
and nobody seemed to have the answer so
basically what happens Parliament will
continue to sit until Friday Parliament
doesn't actually dissolve until Thursday
Thursday next week Thursday next week
but nobody will be in there it's not
that they'll be sitting or doing
anything okay so Parliament dissolves
next Thursday but everyone's cleared out
um but that means the official election
campaign doesn't actually kick off the
short campaign we call it so the short
campaign starts I think on the 31st of
May and that's when all the spending
rules and everything come in but I just
want to make it clear to people
listening what this means is that
yesterday I had to say to my staff get
your things and leave we are not allowed
into the building as of Thursday I will
no longer be a member of parliament I
will be a candidate in the election so
the sign outside my office in Yardley I
literally have to put a thing over it
because I'm not an MP anymore so after
dissolution MPS aren't MPS anymore
they're candidates and we had an email
from Sarah thanks for this Sarah she
says my local MP currently is dealing
with a query of mine what happens to
emails inquiries sent to local MPS once
an election's called it's a good
question what happens just it just
carries on don't worry about that I I
carry on doing all of the case work my
staff they continue uh in that role so
don't worry there's absolutely no reason
if anything you do way more casew work
for people during the election because
you're knocking doors and getting a load
of people telling you their problems so
it's absolutely fine it's important to
stress that point that that all of that
work continues I think what's going to
be really interesting for uh up until
Friday so we're we're recording this on
Thursday morning so today and tomorrow
because the Lord is the same we only
kind of do all of the the kind of stuff
we do and then it looking like a 600 p.m
is finish on Friday is what actually
gets done in the war shop because
there's some really chunky legislation
after months when actually not that much
has been passed we got some really
chunky legislation if the victims bill
doesn't get through I mean I think
there's going to be uproar because so
much put into that well also the blood
inquiry um compensation is in the
victims Bill and as somebody who spent
literally I cannot tell you hundreds of
hours writing the Amendments that have
gone into that that stop things like
pedophiles having access to their own
children and things it's not it's not
small fry this stuff this is big stuff
and who knows what's going to happen in
the wash
up one other story I did want to talk
about was Craig McKinley he's the
conservative m p for South anet got a
stand inovation at pmqs when he returned
to Parliament after having both his
hands and feet amputated due to sepsis
he says he wants to be known as the
first
bionic MP I know Craig a bit i' actually
covered that thanet seat when he was
basically fighting off Nigel farage I
knew he'd been really ill I didn't
realize the extent I was shocked
when I saw the interview he did with GB
news it was really it was really moving
um Jess you've also had some personal
experience of sepsis yeah I have I got
sepsis and it nearly killed me I think
it's the biggest killer of women
postpartum and it is so avoidable now I
think Craig McKinley's case was and he
said this in his amazing speech uh in
Parliament yesterday really moving and
uniting as we're about to all be divided
this beautiful uniting how he got
through it without crying I have no idea
just thanking his family and it was very
moving to be in there for it but what he
said was the prevention in his case
wouldn't have been there but in most
people's cases it is and I imagine
there's going to be a huge amount
attention on this and he and he said not
only does he want to be the first bionic
MP but he wants to raise awareness about
sepsis I have a an experience too which
is nothing like as bad as it was for you
and what happened to Craig but I also
had a really serious infection last
summer and I was hospitalized twice and
was in for nearly a week the second time
around on tons of anti- uh biotics it
took me weeks to recover but the thing
that really struck me with with Craig's
story and what you've just said just is
the speed in which you suddenly are in a
lot of pain but you just think I've got
temperature I've got I've eaten
something bad and I think that's one of
the problems that we have now is postco
everybody knows that the NHS is stressed
everybody knows things about people are
I don't want to worry people or I don't
think I can get a GP appointment or
whatever and and that's the kind of
danger and and that actually almost
everybody that works in the medical
profession will tell you if you have
concerns go we're not shot like yeah
yeah it's tough but you know like you do
not feel that you cannot come to us we
are here for you and we would rather
that we saw you then didn't see you yeah
and I just think with Craig I was
reading an article and his wife had said
you know when she realized and he woke
up from intensive care and realized that
his limbs that they were going to have
to be amputated his his wife said you
know I'm an optimist and this is the
start of our new life and actually for
him to come
back I know but for him to come back
with such Grace and courage humor and
honestly and and and to be now
campaigning to get more understanding
about this life threat can kill you I
just think it's like you know you take
that from a terrible experience and you
try and turn it into something positive
while being cleare eyed about everything
that he's lost because he did say you
know you know the feet I can kind of
deal with it's the it's the hands the
fact that I can't hold hands with my
wife I can't touch her I can't when I I
can still cuddle my daughter he's got a
young daughter and she's adapted really
well cuz kids adapt and stuff but he's
like it's losing that sense of touch and
I can't imagine I can't imagine it I
really I feel for the guy I feel for I
feel for his wife I feel for his
daughter I really do okay well look we
are out of time um have our weekend
plans
changed I have literally no concept of
what I'm doing at the weekend I was I
was actually meant to be flying to the
West Bank I don't know whether I I I am
still doing that I'm definitely I'll be
on a street in Yardley near you uh at
yeah what about you I have not got a
clue Sam coats has been dispatched to um
a sunak speech apparently he's going to
do like all the four nations in the next
40 hours that's soon at probably Sam as
well I will be I think I I have not a
Scooby what all over the I don't know
what I'm doing for the next six weeks
you're going to be going from Arrington
to
abine electoral dysfunction will still
be dropping into your feeds over the
campaign God knows where I'll be doing
it from but I will be doing it WhatsApp
voice notas on 07934
20004 over and out we'll see you soon
goodbye bye bye
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