How I used AI to calculate China’s real population

Summary

The video presents an analysis of China's population crisis, suggesting that China's official population figures may be significantly overstated by 37-50%. By comparing China's population trends, fertility rates, and life expectancy with India’s, the presenter demonstrates inconsistencies in the official data. Using AI, the analysis reveals that China's real population may be closer to 890 million, not the official 1.4 billion. The video also explores how this demographic misrepresentation impacts economic challenges, including consumer spending and economic growth. The presenter concludes that China's actual population could be between 600 million and 800 million.

Takeaways

• 😀 China's official population figure of 1.4 billion in 2020 may be overstated by 37-50%.
• 😀 A comparison between China and India's population growth from 1990 to 2020 suggests a significant discrepancy in China's reported population.
• 😀 China's fertility rate has consistently been low, averaging around 1.7, while India's fertility rate was much higher at 2.97 over the same period.
• 😀 Despite China's lower fertility rate, its population is still officially reported as much larger than India’s, which mathematically seems impossible.
• 😀 The official numbers for China's population and fertility rates don’t align with population trends, suggesting possible manipulation of data.
• 😀 Life expectancy improvements in China and India account for only a small portion of the population discrepancy, with China’s life expectancy increasing by 10 years, and India’s by 12 years.
• 😀 The AI model used in the analysis suggested that China’s population in 2020 might only be around 890 million, rather than 1.4 billion.
• 😀 The Chinese government’s demographic data is highly suspect, with the real population potentially being between 600 million and 800 million.
• 😀 Migration is not a significant factor in the population discrepancy, as it would require an implausible number of migrants over the past 30 years.
• 😀 The decrease in China’s population began in earnest around 2000, but the economic impact of this demographic shift is only now becoming evident in areas like consumer spending and education (e.g., kindergarten closures).

Q & A

What is the main argument presented in the transcript about China's population?

The main argument is that China’s official population figures are significantly overstated, potentially by 37-50%, based on demographic calculations that suggest a much smaller population than reported.

How does the speaker compare the population growth trends of China and India?

The speaker compares the population growth of China and India between 1990 and 2020, noting that despite China’s initial population advantage, India's higher fertility rates should have led to a larger population than China by 2020, but this is not reflected in the official numbers.

What fertility rate trends were observed in China and India over the past 30 years?

In China, the fertility rate decreased significantly from 2.3 in 1990 to 1.3 in 2020. In contrast, India’s fertility rate also declined, but remained higher, dropping from 4.0 in 1990 to 2.2 in 2020.

What was the discrepancy found between the official and calculated population numbers for China in 2020?

The speaker calculated China’s population to be around 890 million in 2020 based on fertility rates, which is 37% lower than the official number of 1.4 billion.

Why does the speaker argue that life expectancy changes are not the primary reason for the population discrepancy in China?

While life expectancy in China increased by 10 years (from 68 to 78 years), contributing to a population increase of 42 million, the speaker argues that this change is too minor to account for the 500 million discrepancy between official and calculated populations.

What role does migration play in the population discrepancy, according to the AI's analysis?

The AI concludes that migration is unlikely to explain the discrepancy, as it would be implausible for 500 million people to have migrated to or from China in the past 30 years, which would account for a population difference of that magnitude.

What is meant by 'population momentum,' and why does it not explain the discrepancy between China and India?

Population momentum refers to continued population growth due to a large base population from previous decades, even with lower fertility rates. However, the speaker points out that India also experienced a similar decline in fertility rates without showing the same discrepancy, suggesting that momentum is not the main factor.

What was the AI's final stance on the population discrepancy, and what did it suggest about China's demographic data?

The AI eventually agreed with the speaker’s suspicion that China's population data was likely overstated, suggesting that the discrepancy between the official and calculated populations could be a result of incorrect or exaggerated reporting by the Chinese government.

How does the speaker propose that China's demographic issue affects its economy?

The speaker argues that China’s demographic decline, especially the reduced population after 2000, has led to slower economic growth, including a decline in consumer spending, which has only recently become noticeable as younger generations reach adulthood and are expected to contribute economically.

What did the speaker discover when using Dr. Ian’s fertility estimates for China, and what conclusion did they draw?

When using Dr. Ian’s fertility estimate of 1.1 for China after 2000, the speaker found that China’s real population would be only about 695 million, far lower than the reported 1.4 billion. This led the speaker to conclude that China’s population has likely been overstated by the government.