Eurasia Group's Bremmer on US-China Relations, Israel

Summary

Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group, discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, emphasizing that these issues are not new and are influenced by U.S. election politics. He highlights China's attempts to attract foreign investment despite economic struggles. Bremmer also addresses the close relationship between China and Russia, expressing greater concern over Russia's ties with North Korea and Iran. Additionally, the discussion touches on U.S. domestic politics, focusing on a recent bill to support Israel militarily, and the challenges President Biden faces in balancing international relations and domestic opinions, particularly among young voters.

Takeaways

• 😟 The U.S. has been raising tariffs on China for several administrations, indicating ongoing trade tensions.
• 👥 Despite the tariffs, China continues to engage with American CEOs to prevent capital flight and maintain foreign investment.
• 🏛️ The upcoming U.S. election is influencing President Biden's stance on China, with significant tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports.
• 🌐 Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin, pledging cooperation against U.S. containment efforts.
• 💣 Putin's close relationships with North Korea and Iran are more concerning due to weapons and technology exchanges.
• 🇨🇳 The China-Russia relationship remains limited, with no significant progress on financial transactions or energy projects.
• 🇮🇱 The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to expedite weapon shipments to Israel, facing opposition in the Senate.
• 🔫 Senator Lindsey Graham criticized delays in weapon shipments to Israel, emphasizing their necessity for precision attacks.
• 🤔 President Biden faces pressure from both Republicans and Democrats over his stance on Israel, affecting his political position.
• 🎓 Columbia University graduation was marked by student protests supporting Palestinians, reflecting broader societal conflicts.

Q & A

What is Ian Bremmer's opinion on whether the situation with China and the U.S. marks the beginning of a trade war?

Ian Bremmer does not consider it the beginning of a trade war, noting that the U.S. has been raising tariffs on China for several administrations and that there is still significant engagement between the two countries.

Why are Chinese leaders engaging in a 'charm offensive' with American CEOs?

Chinese leaders are engaging in a 'charm offensive' with American CEOs because their economy is underperforming, and they want to avoid chasing away foreign direct investment and prevent more capital flight.

How has the upcoming U.S. election influenced Biden's stance on tariffs against China?

The upcoming U.S. election has influenced Biden to respond to political pressure to be tougher on China by implementing tariffs, including 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports to the U.S.

What concerns does Ian Bremmer express about the relationship between Russia, North Korea, and Iran?

Ian Bremmer is more worried about Putin's close relationships with North Korea and Iran, as these countries are supplying Russia with weapons and technology in return for support, making them significant 'chaos actors' on the global stage.

Did the recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin result in significant policy breakthroughs?

No, Ian Bremmer did not see any significant policy breakthroughs from the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, particularly in areas like financial transactions or the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.

What bill did the U.S. House of Representatives recently pass concerning military support to Israel?

The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill to stop the Biden administration from delaying weapon shipments to Israel and compelling the administration to provide weapon support to Israel.

What is Senator Lindsey Graham's stance on the delayed weapons shipments to Israel?

Senator Lindsey Graham supports delivering the delayed weapons to Israel, emphasizing that the bombs are necessary to target tunnels used by militants.

Why is Biden facing pressure regarding his stance on the Israeli conflict?

Biden is facing pressure because the Israeli conflict has lasted longer than expected, and he is losing support from both Republicans and centrist Democrats for trying to pressure Israel, as well as from left-wing Democrats for being too supportive of Israel.

What specific challenges did Ian Bremmer face when speaking at Columbia University amidst the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

Ian Bremmer faced a challenging context with significant student solidarity for Palestinians, including flags and calls for divestment, but noted that students were willing to listen and engage respectfully during his speech.

How does Ian Bremmer describe the students' stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at Columbia University?

Ian Bremmer describes the students as young people who feel that Palestinians are dispossessed and want to do something about it. He emphasizes that students are not supporting Hamas but are concerned about social justice issues.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Ongoing Trade Tensions with China

Ian Bremmer discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, noting that increased tariffs have been a longstanding issue across multiple administrations. Despite China's economic challenges and its efforts to attract foreign investment, the U.S. continues to push for tougher measures, especially in light of political pressures during election time. Bremmer also highlights the substantial tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports as a response to domestic demands for a firmer stance on China.

05:01

🤝 China's Diplomatic Moves with Russia

Kailey Leinz and Ian Bremmer analyze the implications of the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. While the meeting featured warm rhetoric and criticism of the U.S., Bremmer points out that there were no significant breakthroughs in financial transactions or infrastructure projects between the two countries. He expresses greater concern over Putin's alliances with North Korea and Iran, noting the exchange of weapons and technology among these nations and their shared interest in undermining U.S. global influence.

🇮🇱 U.S. Military Support to Israel

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to expedite weapon shipments to Israel, despite some Democratic opposition and the expectation that the bill won't pass the Senate. Ian Bremmer explains that the prolonged conflict in Israel has led to shifting messages from the Israeli government, putting pressure on President Biden. Biden faces criticism from both Republicans and Democrats, with calls for greater humanitarian aid for Palestinians clashing with the Israeli Prime Minister's resistance.

📊 Domestic Political Challenges for Biden

Ian Bremmer discusses the domestic political challenges President Biden faces due to his stance on Israel. Biden's support for Israel has led to discontent among young voters and protests on college campuses. Bremmer shares his experience speaking at Columbia University, noting the strong emotions and solidarity with Palestinians among students. He emphasizes the importance of honest and authentic engagement with young people, acknowledging their desire to address perceived injustices while maintaining a respectful dialogue.

Keywords

💡Trade War

A trade war refers to a situation where countries impose tariffs or other trade barriers against each other in response to trade policies. In the video, it is discussed in the context of the U.S. raising tariffs on China and whether this constitutes the beginning of a new phase in the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries.

💡Tariffs

Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on imported goods. The video mentions the U.S. imposing $18 billion of tariffs, including 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports, as part of a political response during an election period.

💡Foreign Direct Investment

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) involves investment from one country into business interests in another country. The video notes that China is engaging in a charm offensive with American CEOs to attract FDI and avoid capital flight, as their economy is underperforming.

💡Capital Flight

Capital flight is the rapid movement of large sums of money out of a country, typically due to economic instability or political turmoil. In the video, it is mentioned as a concern for China, which is trying to retain foreign investment and prevent money from leaving the country.

💡Charm Offensive

A charm offensive is a campaign or strategy aimed at winning over individuals or groups through positive interactions and public relations efforts. The video describes China’s efforts to engage with global CEOs to boost its economic standing and prevent capital flight.

💡Election

An election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses individuals to hold public office. The video discusses how U.S. President Biden’s policies on tariffs and foreign relations are influenced by the upcoming election and the political demands of the electorate.

💡North Korea and Iran

North Korea and Iran are mentioned as countries providing weapons to Russia. The video highlights concerns about Putin's relationships with these 'chaos actors,' who are seen as rogues aiming to disrupt global stability and challenge U.S. interests.

💡Sanctions

Sanctions are restrictive measures imposed by one country or a group of countries against another, typically to change its behavior. The video discusses how China is cautious about financial transactions with Russia to avoid American sanctions.

💡Humanitarian Aid

Humanitarian aid is assistance provided for humanitarian purposes, typically in response to crises. The video touches on Biden’s call for more humanitarian aid for Palestinians, highlighting the complex interplay between U.S. foreign policy and domestic political pressures.

💡Two-State Solution

A two-state solution refers to the proposal of establishing two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians. The video mentions this in the context of Biden’s efforts to promote peace and stability in the region, which are met with resistance from the Israeli Prime Minister.

Highlights

Ian Bremmer discusses the long-standing trade tensions between the US and China, noting that raising tariffs has been a practice across multiple administrations.

Despite the political tensions, China is actively engaging in a charm offensive with American CEOs to attract foreign direct investment and prevent capital flight.

President Biden is responding to political pressures by implementing $18 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 100% tariff on electric vehicle exports to the US.

Bremmer expresses more concern about Putin's close relationships with North Korea and Iran, highlighting the weapons and technology exchanges that support Russia's efforts in Ukraine.

The relationship between China and Russia is described as warm but limited, with no significant progress on financial transactions or infrastructure projects during Putin's visit to China.

Both China and Russia criticized the US for undermining strategic stability and imposing unilateral coercive measures, but no concrete policy breakthroughs were achieved at the summit.

The US House of Representatives passed a bill to stop the Biden administration from delaying weapon shipments to Israel, indicating bipartisan pressure for increased military support.

Senator Lindsey Graham criticizes the administration for not delivering necessary weapons to Israel, emphasizing the need for precision-guided bombs to target tunnels.

Bremmer notes the ongoing war between Israel and its adversaries, highlighting the pressure on President Biden from both Republicans and Democrats regarding US support for Israel.

The political landscape in the US is complicated by the conflict, with young voters and college campuses expressing strong opinions on the administration's policies toward Israel.

Bremmer describes his experience speaking at Columbia University's graduation, where students showed solidarity with Palestinians but remained respectful during his speech.

The graduation ceremony at Columbia University saw a significant number of students wearing Palestinian flags and calling for divestment, reflecting strong passions on campus.

Despite the protests, Bremmer observed that students were willing to listen and engage during his speech, emphasizing the importance of respecting and challenging students' views.

Bremmer emphasizes the need for honesty and authenticity when addressing students, sharing personal failings to build trust and willingness to engage.

He concludes that respecting and listening to students is essential for effective communication and challenging their perspectives, particularly in a politically charged environment.

Transcripts

AND MORE, EURASIA GROUP AND G0 FOUNDER JOE: --IAN BREMMER.

IS IT THE BEGINNING OF A TRADE WAR OR NOT?

>> OH NO. FIRST OF ALL, YOU WOULD HARDLY

CALL IT THE BEGINNING SINCE WE HAVE BEEN RAISING TARIFFS ON

CHINA FOR A COUPLE OF ADMINISTRATIONS.

ALSO BECAUSE THERE IS STILL AN AWFUL LOT OF ENGAGEMENT AND THE

CHINESE ARE STILL ENGAGED IN A CHARM OFFENSIVE WITH AMERICAN

CEOS, CEOS FROM AROUND THE WORLD BECAUSE THEIR ECONOMY IS

UNDERPERFORMING AND THEY DON'T WANT TO CHASE AWAY FOREIGN

DIRECT INVESTMENT, WHICH IS NOT DOING WELL.

THEY DON'T WANT TO SEE MORE CAPITAL FLIGHT.

HAVING SAID ALL OF THAT, IT IS AN ELECTION TIME IN THE UNITED

STATES. AND BIDEN HAS CLEARLY RESPONDED

TO THE FACT A LOT OF PEOPLE, NOT JUST SENATOR JONI ERNST,

WANT THE AMERICANS TO BE TOUGHER ON CHINA AND $18

BILLION OF TARIFFS , INCLUDING 100% TARIFFS ON CHINESE

ELECTRIC VEHICLE EXPORTS TO THE U.S., WILL HELP TO RESPOND TO

THAT POLITICAL DEMAND. KAILEY: YOUR POINT IS WELL TAKEN ON THE

IDEA THAT BEIJING HAS BEEN PLAYING HOST TO MANY IN

CORPORATE AMERICA. ALSO THIS WEEK, PRESIDENT XI

JINPING IS PLAYING HOST TO RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR

PUTIN AS HE MAKES A TRIP TO CHINA. PLEDGING TO INTENSIFY

COOPERATION AGAINST U.S. QUOTE UNQUOTE CONTAINMENT OF

THEIR COUNTRIES. HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT

HOW CLOSE THESE TWO ARE GETTING? >> I'M MORE WORRIED ABOUT

PUTIN'S RELATIONSHIP, WHICH TRULY IS A FRIENDSHIP WITHOUT

LIMITS WITH NORTH KOREA AND IRAN.

HE'S GETTING A LOT OF WEAPONS FROM THEM HE'S USING AGAINST

NATO WEAPONS A UKRAINE. AND HE'S GIVING THEM A LOT OF

TECHNOLOGY. THESE ARE COUNTRIES THAT ARE

TRULY CHAOS ACTORS, ROGUES. THEY WANT THE U.S.

TO FAIL ON THE GLOBAL STAGE. THE CHINA RELATIONSHIP WITH

RUSSIA IS WARM AND IT IS GETTING A LITTLE FRIENDLIER.

BUT THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT LIMITS.

ON THIS TRIP I DID NOT SEE ANY PROGRESS ON THE DISRUPTION OF

FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS BETWEEN RUSSIAN EXPORTERS AND CHINESE

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS BECAUSE THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO

AVOID THOSE AMERICAN SANCTIONS. I DID NOT SEE ANY PROGRESS ON

THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE POWER I'VE SAID.

-- SIBERIA TWO POWER GAS LINE. THEY HAVE BEEN DRAGGING THEIR

FEET ON IT. THERE WAS A LOT OF VERY WARM

RHETORIC BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES AND THEY BOTH

CRITICIZED THE UNITED STATES AS A COUNTRY THAT IS TRYING TO

UNDERMINE STRATEGIC STABILITY AND CONFISCATE FOREIGN ASSETS

AND PROPERTY AND PUT UNILATERAL COERCIVE MEASURES ON EXPORT

CONTROLS, DIRECTING TRADE BARRIERS.

ALL OF THAT STUFF WAS -- IT SOUNDS GOOD FROM THE RUSSIAN

AND CHINESE PERSPECTIVE, BUT IF YOU HAD BEEN EXPECTING THAT

THERE WAS GOING TO BE A CONCRETE POLICY BREAKTHROUGH,

WATER THE DELIVERABLES THAT CAME FROM THIS SUMMIT?

I DON'T SEE ANY DELIVERABLES. JOE:

A POINT IN YOUR EXPERTISE TO AMERICA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH

ISRAEL. WITH A NEW WRINKLE TODAY, THE

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ACTUALLY PUSHED THROUGH A BILL,

AS WAS EXPECTED, THAT WOULD STOP THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

DELAYING WEAPON SHIPMENTS ONE COMPELLING THE ADMINISTRATION

TO PROVIDE WEAPON SUPPORT TO ISRAEL.

14 DEMOCRATS SPLIT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE TO VOTE FOR THIS.

WE ARE HEARING THIS WON'T SEE THE LIGHT OF DAY IN THE SENATE.

BUT A LOT OF SENATORS ARE UPSET ABOUT IT, INCLUDING LINDSEY

GRAHAM FROM SOUTH CAROLINA. HE SAID THIS EARLIER ON CAPITOL

HILL ABOUT THE ARMS SHIPMENT TO ISRAEL THE ADMINISTRATION PUT

ON HOLD.

>> THERE IS CHARGES OF WEAPONS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN DELIVERED

THAT NEED TO BE DELIVERED.

THE 2000 POUND BOMBS ARE NECESSARY TO HIT TUNNELS THAT

THE COWARDS ARE HIDING IN. THEY ARE DEEP IN THE GROUND,

THEY NEED THESE BOMBS THAT WILL BE PRECISION GUIDED WITHIN A 10

FOOT RADIUS TO GO DOWN AND GET THE TUNNELS.

GIVE THEM THE BOMBS. JOE: IS LINDSEY GRAHAM RIGHT?

>> THE ISRAELIS WERE TELLING THE UNITED STATES THIS WAR WAS

GOING TO BE OVER IN A MATTER OF A COUPLE OF MONTHS AT THE

BEGINNING. IT HAS BEEN SEVEN MONTHS AND

THEY ARE STILL NOT CLOSE TO THE END.

IN THAT REGARD, THE MESSAGING FROM THE ISRAELI WAR CABINET

HAS BEEN CHANGING A LOT OVER TIME. THIS IS PUTTING A LOT OF

PRESSURE ON BIDEN, HE'S LOSING A LOT OF SUPPORT FROM NOT ONLY

THE REPUBLICANS, BUT FROM DEMOCRATS.

HE'S LOSING FROM DEMOCRATS IN THE CENTER AND ON THE RIGHT FOR

TRYING TO PUT ANY PRESSURE ON THE ISRAELI WAR CABINET IN THE

FIGHT IN RUSSIA, WHICH EVERYONE EXPECTS IS COMING.

AND HE'S LOSING A LOT OF SUPPORT ON THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT

FOR BEING AS CLOSE TO ISRAEL AND SUPPORTING ISRAEL AS HE HAS.

IT IS A HORRIBLE POSITION FOR BIDEN TO BE IN.

ESPECIALLY WITH THE FACT THE WAR IS GOING TO CONTINUE AND

THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER, ANY TIME BIDEN SAYS WE NEED MORE

HUMANITARIAN AID FOR THE PALESTINIANS, OR WE NEED A TWO

STATE SOLUTION, OR WE NEED YOU NOT TO ATTACK ROFF, EVERY TIME

THE PRIME MINISTER RESPONDS TO HIS STRONGEST ALLY PROVIDING

HIM MOST OF HIS MILITARY SUPPORT SAYING I'M NOT GOING TO

LISTEN TO YOU. THAT MAKES THE PRESIDENT LOOK

VERY WEAK ON THIS GLOBAL STAGE. KAILEY:

ESPECIALLY NOT JUST THE GLOBAL STAGE TO CONSIDER, BUT THE

DOMESTIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UPSET IN

TERMS OF VOTER VIEWS. YOUNG VOTERS, ESPECIALLY ON

CAMPUSES, WITH THE WAY THE ADMINISTRATION HAS CONDUCTED

ITS POLICY AROUND ISRAEL. HENCE THE PROTESTS ON COLLEGE

CAMPUSES AS WELL AS COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY.

YOU SPOKE AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF

INTERNATIONAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS GRADUATION THIS PAST

WEEKEND. YOU TALKED ABOUT THE PROTESTS.

>> I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT THAT DOING GOOD AND SOLVING

PROBLEMS ARE YOUR GOALS.

AND YET, YOU ARE LEAVING A CAMPUS THAT HAS BEEN RIPPED

APART BY AN INTRACTABLE PROBLEM OF OUR SOCIETIES IN CONFLICT.

>> YOU CLEARLY GAVE THAT ADDRESS ADD AN INCREDIBLY TENSE

MOMENT. WHAT WAS IT LIKE TO GIVE IT?

>> IT WAS THE CONTEXT -- THE CONTEXT WAS CHALLENGING.

THERE WOULD BE A SOLID 15% OR 20% OF GRADUATING STUDENTS

WEARING IT IN SOLIDARITY WITH THE PALESTINIANS, HAD

PALESTINIAN FLAGS THEY BROUGHT

ONTO THE STAGE AND/OR HAD CALLS FOR DIVESTMENT A LITTLE WRAPPED

UP DIPLOMA TYPES THAT THEY WERE HANDING TO THE DEAN CONFERRING

THEIR CERTIFICATES TO THEM.

THIS WAS A HOT ISSUE, AND THERE WERE STRONG PASSIONS.

NOT ONE STUDENT TURNED THEIR BACK, NOT ONE STUDENT LEFT THE

CEREMONY, EVERYBODY APPLAUDED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SPEECH.

I HEARD SOME CHANTING, I HEARD SOME DISRUPTIONS, ALMOST AS IF

THERE WAS A FIGHT IN THE BAR, LIKE I'M GETTING THERE.

I HEAR YOU, I'M WITH YOU. GIVE ME A SECOND.

I WILL GET THERE. AND TO THEIR CREDIT, THEY DID.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE SPEECH, YOU CAN SEE THEM WILLING TO

LISTEN AND ENGAGE. THAT HAS BEEN MY EXPERIENCE

WITH MY STUDENTS ALL YEAR LONG. THAT HAS BEEN MY EXPERIENCE ON

THE COLUMBIA CAMPUS. YOU CAN WATCH THE HEADLINES AND

SEE A SMALL NUMBER OF CRAZY PEOPLE THAT WILL GIVE YOU THE

HEADLINE YOU WANT TO PROMOTE THAT SAYS THEY SUPPORT HAMAS.

THESE STUDENTS DON'T SUPPORT HAMAS, NOT AT ALL.

THE STUDENTS ARE YOUNG PEOPLE THAT FEEL LIKE THERE ARE A

BUNCH OF DISPOSSESSED PEOPLE GETTING THE SHORT END OF THE

STICK. THEY WANT TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT

IT. STUDENTS ALWAYS HAVE. IF YOU RESPECT THEM AND

LISTENING TO THEM, YOU CAN ALSO CHALLENGE THEM.

IT IS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL IF YOU'RE GOING TO CHALLENGE

STUDENTS YOU WILL BE HONEST AND AUTHENTIC WITH THEM AND TALK

ABOUT YOUR FAILINGS AND WHAT YOU HAVE NOT DONE RIGHT

YOURSELF BEFORE THEY GIVE YOU ANY WILLINGNESS TO PAY

ATTENTION. I THINK THAT IS THE HARDEST

THING FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE TO DO RIGHT NOW. KAILEY: INDEED.