How Far Away Is a Ceasefire? An Update on Gaza and the Rafah Invasion | Ian Bremmer

Summary

The video script discusses the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, with a focus on the Israeli military operation in Rafah and the challenges of achieving a ceasefire or sustainable peace. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, provides insights into the perspectives of both Israelis and Palestinians, emphasizing the lack of common ground between the two sides. He highlights the Israeli demand for the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities and the Palestinian aspiration for territory control. Bremmer also discusses the international response, including the U.S. and Egypt's efforts to mediate, and the potential implications of the conflict on regional stability and U.S. domestic politics. The conversation underscores the complexity of the situation, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the difficulty in finding a peaceful resolution.

Takeaways

• 🚨 The Israeli military operation in Rafa, Gaza, aims to eliminate Hamas fighters and infrastructure, causing concern for the 1.2 million Palestinians in the area.
• ⚔️ There is a significant ideological gap between Israel and Hamas, with no overlap in their goals, making a sustainable peace or even a ceasefire challenging.
• 🇮🇱 The Israeli population broadly supports the destruction of Hamas's military capabilities and leadership, irrespective of defense capabilities.
• 🕊️ Hamas continues to fight for control over territory they believe belongs to Palestinians and does not recognize Israel's right to exist.
• 🤝 Negotiating with Hamas as a terrorist organization has been difficult, with the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar trying to facilitate discussions.
• 💣 Israel is not yet at a military endpoint where they feel they must change their approach or offer more in the negotiation process.
• 🔍 The situation in Gaza is dangerous and operates in a gray zone, with the potential for broader regional and international implications.
• 👤 Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, suggests that personal suffering of Hamas leaders might influence their decisions, but ideology remains a strong driver.
• 🏛️ The Israeli government, despite international pressure, does not feel compelled to change its approach significantly.
• 🛑 President Biden's administration has shown reluctance in directly confronting Israel, even suspending some offensive weapons to Israel.
• 🕰️ The timeline for a potential resolution is uncertain, with Bremmer suggesting that a full-scale invasion of Rafa by Israel is still possible.

Q & A

Why did Israeli tanks enter Rafa in southern Gaza?

Israeli tanks entered Rafa as part of a military operation aimed at eliminating Hamas fighters and their infrastructure.

What is the estimated number of Palestinians sheltering in the area during the Israeli invasion?

There are an estimated 1.2 million Palestinians sheltering in the area.

What are the Israeli population's general sentiments towards Hamas?

The Israeli population, spanning the political spectrum from right to left, generally wants Hamas destroyed, its leadership brought to justice, and its military capabilities eliminated.

What is the stance of Hamas towards Israel?

Hamas does not recognize the right of Israel to exist and is ideologically committed to fighting and representing their aspirations for control of the territory they believe belongs to the Palestinians.

What has been the role of the United States in trying to facilitate peace between Israel and Hamas?

The United States, along with Egyptians and others, has tried to facilitate negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, despite the challenges posed by the lack of common interests between the two parties.

What is the current status of the Israeli military action in Rafa?

As of the time of the discussion, Israel has conducted significant airstrikes and tank movements into parts of Rafa, distributed evacuation flyers, and is managing the evacuation of territory, but a full-scale invasion has not yet occurred.

What are the conditions the United States has set for Israel regarding the situation in Rafa?

The United States has set conditions that include ensuring the safety of Palestinian civilians in Rafa and allowing adequate humanitarian aid into Gaza.

What is the likelihood of a full-scale invasion of Rafa according to the discussion?

The discussion suggests that a full-scale invasion of Rafa is still a possibility, depending on the outcome of negotiations and the conditions set by the United States.

What are the challenges faced by Bill Burns, the director of the CIA, in his mission to negotiate a ceasefire?

Bill Burns faces challenges such as the ideological divide between Hamas and Israel, the difficulty in communicating with Hamas's military leadership, and the political instability within Israel's government.

How does the discussion assess the chances of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's political survival?

The discussion suggests that Netanyahu's survival skills are notable, and it is likely that he will remain Prime Minister at least until November, considering the recent conflict has bolstered his image as a patriot and strengthened his coalition.

What is the potential impact of the conflict on the global stage, particularly with regards to anti-Semitism?

The conflict has the potential to escalate anti-Semitism and intensify extremist rhetoric globally. It may also influence the decisions of leaders and affect diplomatic relations, particularly in the context of the United States' role in the conflict.

Outlines

00:00

🚔 Israeli Military Operation in Gaza

The paragraph discusses the Israeli military operation in Rafa, southern Gaza, aimed at eliminating Hamas fighters and infrastructure. It highlights the anticipation and fear among Palestinians, the ongoing war, and the humanitarian crisis. The speaker, Ian Bremmer, provides insight into the conflict, emphasizing the differing goals of Israel and Hamas, which makes achieving a sustainable peace challenging. The Israeli population's desire for Hamas' destruction is contrasted with Hamas' aim to continue fighting and represent their ideology. The discussion also touches on international efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and the potential implications of the conflict on the region and globally.

05:01

🏺 The Humanitarian Crisis and Negotiations

This paragraph delves into the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with a focus on the impact of the conflict on civilians and the challenges of negotiating with Hamas. It discusses the personal suffering of Hamas leaders and the potential leverage of hostages in negotiations. The paragraph also explores the possibility of a safe passage for Hamas leaders as part of a negotiated exit. The conversation touches on the role of the United States and the CIA in facilitating negotiations and the potential consequences of a full-scale invasion of Rafa, including civilian casualties and regional instability.

10:01

🔍 Assessing the Prospects of a Ceasefire

The focus of this paragraph is on the likelihood of a successful ceasefire and the potential actions of the Israeli government and military. It discusses the possibility of a temporary ceasefire, the challenges of negotiating with a far-right coalition, and the potential for a full-scale invasion of Rafa. The paragraph also highlights the role of the United States in providing humanitarian aid, ensuring the safety of civilians, and the pressure on Israel to adhere to certain conditions before proceeding with military actions. The discussion also touches on the potential for a broader conflict involving Iran and the risks associated with escalating tensions in the region.

15:02

🌐 Global Response and Political Ramifications

This paragraph examines the global response to the conflict, the rise in anti-Semitism, and the political implications for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. It discusses the polarization and misinformation contributing to the rise in anti-Semitic sentiments and the complex political landscape that Netanyahu navigates. The paragraph also explores the potential impact of the conflict on the US election and how the Biden administration's handling of the situation could influence voter sentiment. It emphasizes the importance of decisive leadership and the challenges of managing ally relationships during international conflicts.

20:03

🕊️ Path to Peace and Two-State Solution

The paragraph explores the possibility of a two-state solution and the challenges to achieving peace in the region. It discusses the potential for a technocratic Palestinian government, the role of the Gulf States, and the need for security and economic support. The paragraph also highlights the changing political climate in Israel, where a majority now opposes a two-state solution. It touches on the divisions among Palestinians, the impact of Israeli policies on Palestinian refugees, and the potential for normalized relations between Israel and Arab nations, contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state.

25:05

📉 Rising Tensions and Future Predictions

This paragraph focuses on the rising tensions in the region and potential future developments. It discusses the potential for attacks from the Houthis, the possibility of a broader conflict involving Iran, and the need to monitor the situation closely. The paragraph also emphasizes the importance of watching for signals of new developments, such as the outcome of Bill Burns' trip to Israel, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the potential for escalation in the region. It concludes with a call for vigilance and a hopeful outlook for future negotiations and the potential for peace.

Keywords

💡Rafa

Rafa, also known as Rafah, is a city in the southern Gaza Strip. In the context of the video, it is the site of a significant military operation by Israeli forces aimed at eliminating Hamas fighters and infrastructure. The city is of strategic importance due to its border with Egypt and has been a focal point of the ongoing conflict, with the Israeli tanks entering as part of their operation.

💡Hamas

Hamas is a Palestinian Islamic fundamentalist and militant group with political and military wings. It has been a key antagonist in the Israel-Palestine conflict, as mentioned in the video. Hamas controls the Gaza Strip and does not recognize the state of Israel's right to exist, which is central to the ongoing hostilities discussed in the script.

💡Israeli War Cabinet

The Israeli War Cabinet refers to a small group within the Israeli government that has the authority to make decisions regarding war and national security. In the video, it is mentioned that even beyond this group, the broader Israeli population holds strong sentiments against Hamas, seeking its destruction and the dismantling of its military capabilities.

💡Humanitarian Crisis

The term 'humanitarian crisis' is used in the video to describe the dire situation faced by the Palestinian population in the conflict zone, particularly in the area of Rafa. The crisis is characterized by a severe lack of essential resources like food, water, and medical supplies, and it is exacerbated by the violence and instability of the ongoing war.

💡Eurasia Group

The Eurasia Group is a political risk research and consulting firm. Ian Bremmer, who is featured in the video, is the president and founder of this group. The欧亚集团 (Eurasia Group) provides analysis and advice on how political decisions, risks, and events can impact businesses operating around the globe, which is relevant to the discussion of the geopolitical implications of the conflict.

💡Two-State Solution

A 'Two-State Solution' is a term used to describe the concept of establishing two separate, sovereign states for Israelis and Palestinians in the region that is currently Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip. The video discusses the challenges and current unlikelihood of achieving this solution, given the widening gap between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples due to the conflict.

💡Axis of Resistance

The 'Axis of Resistance' is a term used to describe a group of states and movements that are opposed to Western influence, particularly American and Israeli policies in the Middle East. In the video, it is mentioned in the context of potential retaliation from these groups if the conflict escalates further.

💡Palestinian Authority

The Palestinian Authority is an interim self-government body established to govern the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. In the video, it is suggested that a reformed Palestinian Authority, with a technocratic government, could be part of a potential path to peace, but the current political climate makes this unlikely.

💡Anti-Semitism

Anti-Semitism refers to hostility or prejudice against Jewish people. The video discusses the rise in anti-Semitism, particularly in the context of the global response to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is suggested that the conflict and the perception of Israel's actions have contributed to an increase in anti-Semitic sentiment worldwide.

💡Normalization of Relations

Normalization of relations refers to the process of establishing normal diplomatic and bilateral relations between countries that have previously been in a state of conflict or non-recognition. The video mentions how some countries are willing to normalize relations with Israel despite condemning certain actions, which is a significant development in the region's political landscape.

💡Humanitarian Aid

Humanitarian aid encompasses the assistance and support provided to individuals or groups in crisis or in need, often in the form of food, shelter, medical aid, and other essentials. The video discusses the importance of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip and the challenges in delivering this aid due to the ongoing conflict.

Highlights

Israeli tanks entered Rafa in southern Gaza as part of a military operation to eliminate Hamas fighters and infrastructure.

The invasion of Rafa was anticipated with fear for the 1.2 million Palestinians estimated to be sheltering in the area.

Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, discusses the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis.

Israeli population and government aim to destroy Hamas, seeking justice for their leadership and dismantling their military capabilities.

Hamas continues to fight for their ideology and aspirations for control of territory they believe belongs to Palestinians.

Hamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist, making negotiations with them challenging.

The U.S. and other countries have tried to facilitate negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

Hamas has not faced enough damage to feel compelled to accept Israeli offers for ceasefire.

The U.S. has suspended some offensive weapons to Israel, indicating a shift in their stance.

Saudi Arabia has warned Israel against what they call 'genocide' against the Palestinian people.

Israel does not feel the need to change their approach despite international pressure.

The U.S. has not declared a red line regarding a full-scale invasion by Israel into Rafa.

Bill Burns, the director of the CIA, is involved in negotiations to attempt a ceasefire and prevent further escalation.

A full-scale invasion of Rafa by Israel is still considered possible despite current negotiations.

The U.S. election could impact how the conflict is handled, with Netanyahu's political future tied to the outcome.

Iran's involvement in the conflict and potential retaliation against Israel is a significant concern.

The global response to the conflict has been divided, with rising anti-Semitism and angry rhetoric worldwide.

The possibility of a two-state solution seems distant as both Israeli and Palestinian people move further apart.

Transcripts

on Tuesday May the 7th Israeli tanks

entered Rafa in southern Gaza as part of

a military operation to rid the city of

Hamas Fighters and infrastructure The

Invasion had long been anticipated with

much fear for the 1.2 million

Palestinians estimated to be Sheltering

in the area it feels like a pivotal

moment in an ongoing war and

humanitarian crisis so we thought we

would try to get a deeper sense of what

is going on and what we should be paying

attention to I am delighted to be joined

Once More by Ian brema president and

founder of political risk research and

consulting firm Eurasia group and my

conspirator in this Ted explains the

World Series even though Ian has a

terrible voice right now a terrible

voice a terrible voice I mean how do I

sound so non-an likee it's horrible you

sound really terrible but the good news

is that the insight and the wisdom will

flow all the same so thank you for being

here Ian and welcome thank you Al good

to see it okay so can you lay it out for

us share your perspective of what is

going on right now and crucially what

are we not seeing or appreciating In

This Moment well look so much of this

conflict has been about the fact that

the two

antagonists um the Israeli government um

and Hamas have virtually no alignment no

overlap in what they're trying to

accomplish um and and it's very hard to

come to a sustainable peace or even a

ceasefire that can lasts for anything um

when that's true uh I mean the

perspective of the Israelis and I'm not

just talking about the war cabinet but

the whole Israeli the Israeli population

and there have been some that have been

protesting and demanding that you know

the the Israeli government accept the

Hamas ceasefire most

from the the right the center and the

left want Hamas

destroyed they want the leadership of

Hamas brought to Justice either killed

or captured they want the military

capabilities of Hamas destroyed Beyond

an ability to continue to launch rockets

against Israel irrespective of Israeli

defense and they want um the fighters

the 30 some 30 to 40,000 estimated Hamas

Fighters uh to be gone uh and they're

not close to that military outcome

yet um

Hamas uh of course is trying to find a

way to continue to fight and uh to

represent uh their ideology and their

aspirations for control of territory

that they believe belongs to the

Palestinians um and of course they don't

recognize the right of Israel to exist

so I mean even negotiating with a

terrorist organization is something that

we don't in normal times think a lot

about doing that is what the Americans

the Egyptians the cutteries have tried

to facilitate over the past months but

the reality is that while everybody else

in the world wants the fighting to be

over that the two groups that are

actually fighting don't share common

interests they don't um and and no one

has been forced to cry Uncle I I mean

Hamas just obviously hasn't faced enough

damage that they feel like they have no

alternative but to accept what is being

offered to them by the

Israelis um and the Israeli government

despite the isolation they're feeling

and and you know with even President

Biden now suspending a small number of

offensive weapons which he was

incredibly reluctant to even talk about

as a possibility just a couple months

ago he's now doing it and the Saudis

coming out and saying warning the Israel

to stop what what the Saudis are calling

a genocide against the Palestinian

people that is a big step for a country

that's preparing to normalized relations

with Israel despite all of that Israel

does not feel the need um that they have

to change um and and give more um to the

negotiating process and and that's why

despite the ultimatums that have been

given consistently by the United States

not to go into Rafa um they've gone in

and to be fair they haven't at this

moment you and I talking they haven't

gone all the way in they've done more

than dip a toe um there are significant

air strikes there are tanks that have

rolled into some of it they have given

evacuation flyers and they're moving a

lot of the territory out of big parts of

Rafa um but uh but you would not call

this um a full on crowned Invasion and

at this point the Americans have not

said that the Israelis have breached the

red line of which there is one um what

the American will do if they proceed as

an open question uh and so we're you

know we're in a bit of a gray Zone a lot

of the Middle East operates in Gray

zones in Conflict all the time but this

is very dangerous both for the region uh

and uh more broadly uh and and uh and I

think that's it's a good time to be

talking about what's at stake

here so it's interesting that you say

that Hamas doesn't feel like they have I

don't know if you put it suffered enough

but you know 35,000 Palestinians have

died in this conflict what do you think

will bring Hamas to the table in some

meaningful way look I mean their leaders

some of their leaders have lost a lot of

their families that's true um I my

understanding is that uh the uh the

military leader of of Hamas has actually

had over 30 members of his family killed

um you know so clearly uh there's a

level of personal suffering

and while ideology is driving them in

ways that is hard for you and I to

imagine um it is hard to hard to say

it's driving them blindly you have to

believe that there are other things that

are also Weighing on um their decisions

like the well-being of their families um

and like their ability to continue to

live and fight another

day now I'm I'm sure that that's a part

of the reason they don't want to give up

the hostages not just because there

aren't that many left alive for them to

give up and of course that that has been

a wrinkle in the negotiations over the

past weeks as well as the Israelis have

learned that the um that the first

tranch of hostages that were going to be

released weren't all going to be alive I

you know no one's going to accept that

bait and switch um in Israel um and and

also uh the fact fact that the only way

that Hamas is protecting their leaders

in all likelihood is because they're

deep um under Raa in tunnels with those

hostages um so you know one of the ways

that you get them out is if there is a

possibility of safe passage I mean I

remember when you and I were talking

about progan if Genny

progan who was you know marching Moscow

and he was in an absolutely no win

situation and yet he was willing to cut

a deal with Putin that gave him another

few months of Life on this Earth and

allowed you know his left tenants and

some of his advisors to continue with

their contracts and their jobs you and I

both knew that he was dead man walking

so I mean part of the question is Hamas

has gotten themselves in terms of their

leadership into an

incredibly impossible position they will

be marked no matter where they are for

death by the Israelis by the Americans

by many others for the rest of their

lives that hardens their position it

makes it harder to negotiate with them

but even then if things get too

impossible for them they might be

willing to accept an exit clause to get

out for a third undisclosed country for

a period of time and I got to tell you

most of the world would accept that if

it meant that we could have an end of

Hamas in Gaza uh an end of the fighting

in Gaza but but again at this point you

know what we're negotiating over right

now and Bill Burns the director of the

CIA who has been the adult from the

United States writing heard on these

negotiations him going to Israel is the

last opportunity to get a deal done to

get any time of ceasefire and back away

from fullon onslaught of Rafa that will

cause many thousands more civilian

deaths much more famine and hardship for

the other Palestinians living in Gaza

and much more retaliation from the axis

of resistance and more broadly across

the Middle East so he's going there but

what we're talking about even if he is

successful is not a permanent

ceasefire and I think it's almost

impossible to get this Israeli

government and particularly its prime

minister and his far-right Coalition off

of the idea that they still have

unfinished military business on the

ground in Gaza and they may delay it for

a month or six weeks but they are not

going to delay it indefinitely that that

is not on in the cards in my

view so you mean an A full-scale

invasion of Rafa is still on the cards I

do I absolutely believe that um now what

is defined by fullscale Invasion it's

interesting the Americans have never

told the Israelis that they oppose a

full-scale invasion they haven't said

that they haven't you'd think they'd

said that they hadn't said that they've

said that they want

guarantees that the palestin Ian

civilians living in Rafa um over a

million as you say 1.2 million have a

safe haven have an ability to evacuate

that the Americans consider to hold

water and that's number one number two

that adequate humanitarian Aid is able

to get in to Gaza across the territory

to allow the Palestinians to continue to

survive in anything that looks like life

and as of right now neither of those two

conditions have been upheld um you know

the the and and so if if the Israel and

the Americans have made that very clear

as of today so if the Israelis were to

persist with a full on Invasion absent

those conditions the Americans would be

forced to what suspend cut off offensive

Weaponry make the Israeli buy it on the

market reduce their ability to actually

continue a fight for more than a few

weeks the way they would like to in Rafa

that is what the Americans are trying to

say to Israel right now um but it is not

it is not the case um I mean I I feel

like what if we don't get a

ceasefire a temporary ceasefire what is

likely to happen is that the Israelis

will evacuate more people uh

non-military a men right um but others

um and they can't force them they're not

ordering them but they're you know

they're flying leaflets and they're

saying get out and we'll give you sayfe

passage for a period of time a couple

days four days whatever it is um and

they'll let in more humanitarian Aid

some of which is no longer frankly in

their control they've said an American

private security company is going to be

given control of the border that they've

just taken over at Rafa that's new

that's the last 24 hours and they've

also of course allowed um though they

don't formally occupy it so it's not

really up to Israel to allow it the

United States to build this pier to

allow Goods to get shipped in which

might be open in the next few days even

to allow some additional Aid in I think

that those things will happen Israel

will say that they've met American

demands and then they'll do full-on

Invasion I think that is the plan right

now absolutely short of Bill Burns being

success ful when he gets to

Israel how do you rate his

chances if it was anybody but him they'd

be really low uh he's well respected by

all sides he really is he wouldn't be

going if he didn't have a serious plan

he's not going for window dressing he's

not going to show that the Americans are

giving their all he believes there's a

way through I have a lot of respect for

bill um so I mean I I'd like to say it's

at least a coin flip um I think they're

still really talking they're still

really engaging but let's also keep in

mind Ellen a couple of things here first

um talking to Hamas is hard getting

messages to the military leadership just

one message back and forth can

frequently take one to two weeks by the

cutteries so between the time that they

have said something and when you are

responding to them them frequently the

facts on the ground change and that

makes it a lot harder to get to a deal

and that's how the Americans have

earlier a couple of months ago said yeah

we think a Deal's about to happen and

then you know you hear back from Hamas

and it turns out life is different than

you thought and Biden's being a lot more

careful more cautious this time around

than he was a couple of months ago

everybody has noticed also the fact that

if

nanahu gives too much up um in a deal uh

he will lose his right-wing government

and then he'll fall and and this is a

government who have ministers in a

sitting government who have called for

genocide against the Palestinians right

I mean publicly who have said Gaza

should be leveled full ethnic cleansing

they should be occupying it this is you

know these are ministers of the Israeli

government they are not members of the

war cabinet thankfully so they don't

have control over the war in Gaza but

they are indispensable to nyaho

maintaining his power and so he is being

pushed I mean I have no doubt that BB

will find a way um you know to come to

terms with the deal if he can survive

politically with that deal but if he

can't he'll throw it away and and so

that's where we are right now it's hard

to work with a on

it's hard to work with this Israeli War

cabinet because of the leadership um and

and that's just to get a temporary deal

of a few weeks which everyone will will

see as an incredibly improbable win like

we are at the brink right now and I

would consider it you know a big breath

of fresh air oil prices will go down we

will have a cessation of attacks in the

Red Sea by the houthis um for as long as

the ceasefire is going on there'll be

huge shuttle diplomacy to talk about

next steps Palestinian leadership

governance all of these things but the

reality is we'll still only be looking

at a temporary ceasefire with Hamas

holding on to a smaller number of

hostages each of whom mean a lot more to

hamas's survival right and the Israelis

being pushed harder and harder say what

are you doing to get them out and and

what are you doing to end Hamas so I

don't think this gets easier even if we

manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat

with these negotiations these last ditch

negotiations how do you rate netanyahu's

chances of surviving as the

leader um I mean you know he has

survived longer over many

administrations than almost any of his

detractors would have expected so his

survival skills um are are quite

something um his political instincts his

ability to play higher stakes poker than

you are willing to and push all of his

chips in does it repeatedly um there's

no question that BB thinks he's got a

better chance with his Coalition if he

can make it through the US election and

Trump wins not because Trump loves BB he

doesn't Trump doesn't trust nanyu didn't

like really didn't like the fact that na

promised to be there with the Americans

when the US was going to assassinate

kasum sulamani and then a week before

hand pulled out also really didn't like

that nanahu immediately called Biden to

congratulate him after the election say

I'm ready to work with you Trump

couldn't stand those things Trump

remembers those things talks about it

but but Trump on Israel supports the

far-right position and Trump's advisors

foreign policy advisors around the

Middle East support that position this

is the guy that recognized um Israel's

uh ownership of the Golan Heights he's

the guy that moved the embassy the US

Embassy to Jerusalem he didn't have a

problem with expanded settlements um in

the West Bank uh I mean so a lot of

places where Biden is strongly Pro

Zionist but is more of a Centrist in

terms of who he supports in the Israeli

political Spectrum you know Trump would

support

the far right that um BB has as his

Lifeline it's lud right-wing party

center right and it's the farri

Coalition that's it so I think that Dao

thinks that if he sticks around there

can be other things on the table that

can that can allow him to be a leader

for

longer but but he has to stick around at

this point I think it's more likely than

not that he's still prime minister come

November

uh because even if you have a no

confidence vote um and you force a new

election it's three months from when

that happens to the election and you

know we had this big I'm sure we'll talk

about this but we had this big fight

between the Israelis and the Iranians

that made nanahu look like more of a

patriot he had been responsible for

October 7th that's his legacy then he's

responsible for Israel with allies

defending itself against unprecedented

Iranian strike without a single Israeli

casualty so I think he's bought himself

More Time by virtue of how this war has

go has gone and how the war has expanded

and also how he's managed to keep his

own Coalition on side so yeah I think if

you made me bet I think he's got at

least another six months in him at this

point so the mention of Iran I think is

is really important as as you mentioned

like in April we saw Iran launched

hundreds of drones and missiles onto

Israel in response to an Israeli attack

and I think there was real kind of

everyone holding their breath to see how

that actually shook out do you think

that Iran will respond to this attack on

Rafa or do you think that they're going

to get involved in any bigger way at

this moment not directly but indirectly

but you know here's a really interesting

point Helen you know the Israelis have

had a common practice of killing um irgc

members when they can find them in other

parts of the Middle East not in Iran

itself they've had major cyber

attacks in Iran against their nuclear

program they've assassinated nuclear

scientist right I mean there have been

all sorts of Israeli attacks against

core Iranian interests it's fairly clear

from what happened just a few weeks ago

the Iranian response to an Israeli

attack against an Iranian uh Consular

building basically part of the Iranian

Embassy which Iran considered attack on

its own territory the 300 plus missiles

and drones against Israel and they said

you do this again this is going to be

much worse so the stakes for the status

quo

anti policy of Israel have gotten a lot

higher

next time Israel is thinking about okay

it's time to go after Iran's nuclear

program again the potential for that to

become a war much higher so let's talk

let's break down two different parts of

this first let's look at what happened

between Israel and Iran then let let's

look at what the Iranians are doing

going forward first what

happened so the Israelis who have been

on the receiving end of attacks from all

of these Iranian proxies across the

region and Iran gives the money and

weaponry and training and intelligence

so then the Israelis see this Target in

Damascus the irgc Islamic revolutionary

guards Corps they head for Syria and so

they send missiles in they blow up the

building they kill him and some other

officers um and so then the

Iranians on the one hand they clearly

don't want a war so they tell the Turks

and Iraq Iraqis in advance here's what

we're planning on doing they wait a week

the messages get to the Americans just

going to attack military targets not

going to attack any civilians this isn't

about the United States we don't want

the US involved then they send the

weapons over while the weapons are in

you know in transit the Iranian uh

mission to the UN says hey this is all

we're doing it's in response to what the

Israelis did we consider this now

closed that all sounds pretty good

sounds de-escalatory tit fortat except

they sent over 300 missiles and drones

and I will tell you that no one in the

Biden Administration in the Pentagon in

the White House no one thought that that

was going to happen they they thought

that was such a larger response from

Iran I mean if you wanted to just hit

Israel to show that this is serious you

send 20 30 drones whatever you know

they're going to knock them down you

send over 300 the intention is for a

bunch of them to get through the

intention is to blow up a major Israeli

base to kill Israeli military men and

women if that had

happened the ability of the United

States to contain the Israeli response

to something symbolic would have been

very very challenging we in other words

we might right now be in an Iran Israel

war that theic Americans got sucked into

the Straits of Hormuz would have been

disrupted Iran also bordered in Israeli

linked ship just outside the Straits of

hero right before they sent those

weapons showing this is where this can

go if this gets really ugly that's $150

oil that's Trump as the next president

right that's a that's a major war in the

Middle East the Americans are actively

fighting with allies horrible situation

I don't think it was like

but the Iranians were prepared to risk

that at least to a limited degree and

that's something that everyone in the

region now understands and the Israelis

understand it too okay so that's what

just happened fortunately that's that's

that's in the rearview mirror going

forward if this attack on Rafa goes

ahead either in the coming days because

there's no agreement on the hostages or

in the coming weeks because there is an

agreement agreement and then it's over

and and they haven't extended it um then

you're going to see uh the Iranians

continuing to provide all sorts of

support for

these so-called axis of resistance

members who the US considers to be

terrorist organizations they don't

recognize the right to Israel to exist

um they're going to be engaging in

strikes on shipping on warships and

Military targets of the US and the UK

and also against Israel and the Israelis

are likely to make strikes against Iran

as a consequence going forward so we

could very easily have a repeat of what

we just saw between Israel and Iran but

with that deterrence having failed we're

now at a new point of escalation more

dangerous than it was last time around

got to do more to show that you're

serious right also final point in case

that wasn't enough you've got over a

hundred th000 Israelis that have been

evacuated from the north of the country

evacuated because at the beginning of

the war they were concerned that

hasbalah was going to continue to send

missiles against them and make them

unsafe kill them so they're out but

there's a lot of pressure to get them

back in especially by September start of

the school year the only way you get

them back is if you either have a peace

plan that's agreed to which we don't

have or you've taken some actions

against he baah now most of the

conversations I've had with Israeli

leadership and even with some Centrist

members of outside of the Israeli

government is that action needs to be

taken against Hezbollah and if it's a

two front for war it's a two front War

it's one of the reasons they don't want

to have a lot of troops in Gaza most of

them pull back is because they have to

defend themselves against

Hezbollah so if the only way you get

your 100,000 citizens back to their

homes is you need to start striking

Hezbollah a more serious degree

Hezbollah is by far the most important

Ally of Iran in the region they're the

ones the Iranians would do much more to

defend so that's another proximate way

that we get from the war that we have

right now to something that could expand

and bring the Iranians in there's just a

lot of vectors of instability as we look

over the coming

months is there any genuinely credible

path to a two State solution or to peace

in the region anytime soon I I think

there's absolutely a credible path I

just don't know that it's anytime soon I

mean the credible path is you have a

Palestinian

Authority um that uh that appoints a

technocratic government for Gaza

Palestinians who have worked in

multilateral organizations and

understand what it means to actually

build um and economy those people exist

and there are certainly people that

could run a Palestinian Authority in

Gaza that are some of them are in the

Emirates in Egypt they're you know ones

in jail in Israel I mean you've got

there are possibilities right um and and

then the military the security would be

funded by the Gulf States maybe the US

with a lot of the physical security

provided probably by Egypt maybe a

little with Jordan maybe some others

right um maybe the UN would get involved

um that's feasible and there's been a

lot of conversations involving the Gulf

States around precisely that and some of

the conversations even in the Bahrain

peace conference that was the precursor

to the Abraham Accords under Trump

discussed that so I mean the these

Solutions exist but Helen over the last

seven months you know October 7th has

radic ized a generation of Israelis

against a solution like that not all of

them but a majority a majority a

two-state solution is no longer

something that anybody in Israel with a

big party wants to run on because it's

very unpopular in Israel uh particularly

among Israeli Jews Israeli Arabs

different story Israeli Jews strongly

oppose a two-state solution right now

then you've got the Palestinians and not

just in Gaza but in the occupied

territories of the West Bank where much

more land has been taken illegally over

the past months I mean Nan yahu

appointed a member of the far right to

be in charge of demolitions in the West

Bank they're taking more land more

Palestinians are fighting more

Palestinians are getting killed fighting

against settlers also fighting with the

IDF so we're farther from a two-state

solution even in the West Bank you know

and and then of course we have the

anamos from Palestinians who are

refugees living without full rights in

Jordan or in Lebanon um you know you put

all of that together um and and this is

an incredibly an incredibly difficult

path to get from here to there I mean

look the Saudis are holding out we will

normalize relations with Israel even as

we say you're committing a genocide

when's the last time you've had a

country say we're going to normalize

relations with you you're committing a

genocide but we're we're prepare to do

it just stop just stop and and let's

have a a defined path for a new state

for the Palestinians that you will

recognize and then we'll do it but and

the Americans have spent a lot of time

with the Saudis working on what that

plan would be and I think you could get

that through with a new defense paact

that that would pass Democrats and

Republicans in Congress but you have to

have Israeli normalization that means

you have to have have a Palestinian

State Helen there is much more support

for a Palestinian state today around the

world than there was when you and I were

talking about this last time when

October 7th happened it was in part the

result of years and years and years of

everybody talking about Palestinian need

for self autonomy and determination and

no one actually doing it um we now have

a lot more people recognizing talk is

cheap this is causing a real problem we

need a Palestinian state but I mean if

the people that are fighting the war um

have uh inclinations against each other

that

prude any such possibility you asked me

at the beginning why don't we have a

deal we don't have a deal because

there's not overlap between Hamas and

the war Cabinet why don't we have a

two-state solution pathway because the

Palestinian people people and the

Israeli people have gotten further apart

despite all of this pain because of all

of this

pain it is so painful there is so much

pain everywhere what's interesting too I

think is that the global response to

this in has been so divided itself there

is so much anger at Israel for what

people are seeing that is happening to

the Palestinians the death and the

destruction of Gaza and the pictures

that we see the support for Israel that

I think material realized after October

the 7th does in some ways seem to have

evaporated on a global kind of basis but

I'm I'm wondering if the rise of

anti-Semitism and the rise of the kind

of angry rhetoric that we see rolling

out and playing out across the world is

playing into any of the factors on the

ground and with the leadership who are

actually making the decisions what is

your response to that and how how are

you seeing this type of strife that is

happening around the world actually

impact anything that's happening on the

ground I mean of course um we're seeing

a rise in

anti-Semitism uh which frankly uh

predated October 7th those numbers were

going up in Europe and the United States

before that um and it's gotten worse and

I think a lot of that has been just the

polarization um and the misinformation

in society the extremism that is carried

algorithmically through social media I

mean things that you and I talk about

that's getting worse

and you know you mentioned that there

was a you know an outpouring of support

for Israel after October 7th and that's

true and we saw big demonstrations

massive in Germany in the United States

and elsewhere but there was still a lot

of

anti-Semitism and you know even in the

early days if you were an Israeli Jew um

you felt like there wasn't as much

support as you would think there was a

lot more Sympathy for the Hamas position

even as they just carried out the most

brutal atrocities we'd seen against Jews

since the Holocaust and you know Joe

Biden on Holocaust Memorial Day

Remembrance Day came out and you know

seven months after reminded people of

that that that you know the hostages are

still there these atrocities were still

committed the people that were

responsible for those atrocities that

carried them out that ordered them

they're

still commanding their forces and that's

clearly not acceptable right I mean the

Americans didn't consider that

acceptable after 911 no country that had

that brutality um against them would

consider that acceptable but but it's

also true um that more broadly um there

is uh Israel today is in a very isolated

Place almost the entire when Hamas

accepted the um the plan that was

offered by the Egyptians and the

cutteries and the Israelis said no

pretty much the entire world was in the

Hamas negotiating position and that

that's not good for Israel now has that

really made a difference to the people

engaging in the substance of this

conflict and potential resolution no and

has it led to any major attacks no not

yet uh I mean look the major terrorist

attack that we've seen since you and I

have spoken to each other an islamist

extremist attack was in Moscow uh for

for some tajiks that were um attached to

Isis k um and and the reason it was

mosow is because you know Putin is a big

friend and Ally of of Assad in Syria and

helped to take Isis out of the territory

that had been their caliphate now that

was a while ago but it takes a terrorist

organization a long time to organize a

spectacular attack you know everyone's

trying to get them they need to operate

under the radar with a lot of anonymity

and they don't have a lot of

resources a lot of them aren't very

capable so um I I I fear that the fact

that we haven't seen anything yet is

just because there hasn't been enough

time for those plans to manifest I mean

certainly uh us and Allied intelligence

believes

that we are going to see a generational

change in support for anti-israel and

anti-us islamist extremist Terror

because of what has transpired in the

last seven months on the ground in Gaza

I absolutely expect that I hope that the

amount of effort and resource that has

been put into combating that post 911 uh

will enable us to prevent it or at least

the vast majority of it it but you know

I don't know how lucky I

feel well that is depressing thank you

um so what are you watching for next

what should we be looking out for what

are the signals that we should be

looking for that something something new

and interesting and big is happening

that we should be paying attention to

well first of all what we talked about a

few of those in the region we want to

watch very carefully what comes out of

uh Burns Bill Burns's trip um to Israel

if there's going to be a short-term

agreement that's what it is um and and

or if more time is bought uh in terms of

a Rafa attack um full bore Rafa attack

um and and we want to watch how many how

much the Israelis move on the other

precursors humanitarian Aid and the

evacuations because then they've checked

the boxes they can go in right so it's

the American perspective it's the

Israeli perspective that's what we want

to watch assuming Rafa happens we want

to watch very very carefully um all of

the attacks uh from the houthis um and

because they've been expanding they just

threatened the Mediterranean for the

first time they also struck a ship in

the Indian Ocean for the first time

using ballistic missiles clearly that's

a problem they're attacking a lot of

American warships uh while the Iranian

supported uh proxies in Syria and Iraq

have stopped ever since the um the three

servicemen and women were killed in

Jordan a few months ago the Americans

brushed them back pretty hard and that

that stopped but but the houthis are

still hitting the Americans and if they

were to blow up a warship or kill a

bunch of American servicemen and women

um I think that would clearly lead to an

escalation finally in the region want to

watch the Hezbollah Northern Israel

front the Lebanon front and as we get

closer to the fall what are the Israelis

preparing to do on that don't fall

asleep on that but beyond the region

well the one thing we haven't talked

about is the US election because Biden

is in no man's land on this issue right

I mean you have a very L very few

Americans consider Gaza the issue

they're going to vote on but this makes

Biden look weak he has been telling his

top Ally in the Middle East you must let

humanitarian Aid in you must do more to

protect the civilians you must protect

journalist you must protect Aid workers

do not dare go into Rafa and I mean at

every you must support a two-state

solution and the Israeli Prime Minister

has told Biden the president of the most

powerful country in the world who is an

enormous supporter of his country has

told him talk to the hand talk to the

hand um and has even told him you know

on on Holocaust remembrance the eve of

Holocaust remembrance that the Israelis

have to only count on themselves can't

count on any other countries around the

world after everything the Americans did

to defend Israel with the Iranian

strikes despite the opposition of like

almost every country in the world to

what Israel is doing right now um and

the American vetos at the security

Council I mean everything the US is

doing to stand up to Israel and Natan

yahu at least I mean it may work in

Israel it certainly works for his

coalition but in the United States in an

election year it's insane and so Biden

is in damage control mode and this is

hurting him and this War I think that n

is still going to be there in November

and I fear the war is still going to be

going on and if it's still going on in

the summer and in the fall I mean the

students are going to go home they

graduate um and I mean I'm doing the

Colombia sea graduation ceremony on

their speaker on Monday that's going to

be a very different speech than I

expected when they originally asked me

to give it so I'm going to go and and do

do my best for the students um but

they'll all go away but then come August

we've got the convention in Chicago

which is fraught with Incredible

symbolism and a lot of anger and and

certainly will be a place where you know

professional agitators will show up to

make this look bad for the Dems um and

then after that I I mean if if if this

war is still going on when campus gets

back in place August

September you know the these

universities are going to be lit uh it's

going to be a serious serious problem

for Biden the kids are not all right um

and and in a in an election that is

tight with a small number of Swing

States and that counts on people coming

out and being supportive of the

incumbent Biden is in serious danger of

of of losing critical vot on this issue

obviously there's no quick fix for Biden

but what do you think he should do look

I think Biden should have um come out

very very strongly against nanyu and

with Israel on day one after October 7th

uh which by the way is the position of

the overwhelming majority of the Israeli

people you know I mean give direct

interviews to the jpost and harats um

and and say you know how the Israeli

Prime Minister failed his people right I

mean in other words really put your

thumb on the scale which would have you

know been it would have been painful but

it's BB would have done it to Biden

would have been happy to right um and

and and Biden's not that kind of a guy

but when you're playing against that

that sort of person that's what you need

to do and the United States doesn't just

support Israel it also supports Israeli

democracy which Natan yahu is an enemy

of right that that's what he needed to

do and he could have absolutely done

just as much to provide the support for

you know get get the is get the money to

the to to the Palestinians there's Aid

going in but also get Military Support

to the Israelis redouble the American

defense support so that the Israelis can

make sure that they can deal with

incoming missiles and Rockets you can do

both of those things at the same time I

find thing is I don't I think Biden

should have talked a lot more about the

American hostages in the early days and

I don't know I'm not privy to whether

the Americans seriously considered um a

raid but um I I'd like to believe from

the day one they were saying the

Israelis are in charge of the hostages

the Israelis are in charge of the

hostages you've got American citizens

that are hostages I don't know why the

Israel should be in charge of those

hostages I think that's either a joint

raid or the Americans go in and do it

themselves um but I I would have wanted

Biden on top of that and it's not that

Biden wasn't it's not that Biden refused

that a lot of people were coming to him

with that advice Biden's

81 and I just don't think he's willing

to be as decisive as assertive on these

issues as he was 10 15 20 years ago I'm

hearing a lot more of like yeah yeah

that sounds interesting let's think

about that as opposed to being decisive

on the issue and this is one where Biden

being too cautious too late too

slow um in in articulating a position

that he has gotten to he has now

actually you know suspended some of this

military aid but you you don't want to

wait until you know after the world

Central Kitchen debacle this was

happening before to lots of Aid workers

they just weren't Americans but it was

happening I mean they've been incensed

with what the Israeli Prime Minister has

been doing and the war cabinet for

months now but they've been very careful

I agree that your allies you should be

you should talk to privately differently

than you talk to publicly and and that

the US policy towards something that the

Israelis do when it's wrong is not

shouldn't be the same as when the

Russians do something that's wrong

because they're your ally I get that but

this is beyond the pale for the Israeli

pm and I think he thinks he can walk all

over the United States right now and

that's not a good position to be

in Ian it is always a pleasure to talk

to you despite the toughness of the

conversations I'm so glad your voice

held out thank you so much for being

here and we will see you again soon

let's hope for the best on these

negotiations uh let's hope that we at

least get some good news uh and and and

stop some of this fighting for a period

of time get some of this Aid in but

either way I'm sure you and I will be

talking again soon thanks you