The Landing

Summary

In this comprehensive video script, Bob Lucas discusses the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and the potential for a left translated cycle, where the market could reach a peak in 2024. He emphasizes the difficulty of predicting exact price points but suggests that the current market dynamics indicate a faster cycle. Lucas also touches on the concept of 'ordinals', a type of non-fungible token on the Bitcoin blockchain, and how they can be used to store digital objects with provenance. He shares his belief in the potential of ordinals for future utility and scalability on the Bitcoin network. Additionally, Lucas outlines an airdrop plan for followers of his series, offering a unique way to reward engagement and participation in the Bitcoin community.

Takeaways

• 📈 The Bitcoin market has experienced significant changes, potentially indicating a left-translated cycle that could peak in 2024.
• 🔄 Bob Lucas discusses the possibility of a left-translated cycle versus a traditional cycle, emphasizing the difficulty in predicting exact price points.
• ⏳ Lucas highlights that Bitcoin's current market trajectory is ahead of previous cycles, pointing to a faster cycle that aligns with increased institutional involvement.
• 🤔 He differentiates between predictions and possibilities, advising a focus on the latter and being aware of the risks of being overly committed to a specific narrative.
• 🚀 The speaker is a firm believer in the ordinal movement for Bitcoin, seeing it as a way to reward followers and secure digital objects on the Bitcoin chain.
• 💡 Ordinals are likened to NFTs, offering a means to store digital objects on the blockchain, providing security and proof of ownership.
• 🌐 The script touches on the potential of Bitcoin to become more correlated with traditional assets as it matures and gains significance in the financial system.
• 🧐 Lucas suggests that the Bitcoin market is somewhat isolated from macroeconomic factors like interest rates and recession, behaving according to its own ecosystem.
• 📉 He warns of the risks of using leverage or overextending in investments, given the unpredictable nature of the market.
• 🎯 The strategy for investors is to stay disciplined, be patient, and be ready to adapt strategies in real-time as the market unfolds.
• 🔗 The speaker plans to airdrop ordinals for free to followers and sell some to cover costs, with the aim of rewarding the community and supporting Bitcoin's chain security.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the video?

The main topic of discussion is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle, with a focus on the potential left translated cycle and its implications for the market.

What is a 'left translated cycle' in the context of the video?

A left translated cycle refers to a situation where the peak of the Bitcoin cycle occurs earlier than the midpoint, which traditionally has been around the 24-month mark in previous cycles.

Why does Bob Lucas believe the current Bitcoin cycle might be left translated?

Bob Lucas believes the current cycle might be left translated due to the accelerated move up to the all-time high level, increased awareness, and speculative moves, suggesting a final blow-off move in a longer 16 or 20-year cycle.

What is the significance of the all-time high in the Bitcoin 4-year cycle?

Hitting an all-time high in the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is significant because it typically draws attention from a broader audience, including media and retail investors, which can lead to increased adoption and rapid price increases.

What does Bob Lucas suggest about the role of predictions in trading Bitcoin?

Bob Lucas suggests that predicting an exact price or time for the peak is almost impossible, and instead, traders should focus on playing the possibilities that make logical sense over the next 6 to 9 months or into the next year.

Why is Bob Lucas giving away ordinals to followers of his series?

Bob Lucas is giving away ordinals as a way to reward people who have been following his series and to show his belief in the ordinal movement for Bitcoin, which he sees as a way to store digital objects on the Bitcoin chain with provenance.

What is the role of institutional investors in the current Bitcoin cycle?

Institutional investors, including ETFs, big capital, and possibly sovereign wealth funds, are contributing to the faster movement of the Bitcoin market towards all-time highs, as they bring in significant capital and influence market dynamics.

How does Bob Lucas perceive the future of Bitcoin in relation to traditional finance?

Bob Lucas perceives that Bitcoin is still in its early stages and mostly operates as its own ecosystem. However, he anticipates that in the future, as Bitcoin's market cap grows, it will become more correlated with traditional assets and move differently within the financial system.

What is the potential timeline for the peak of the current Bitcoin cycle according to the left translated cycle idea?

According to the left translated cycle idea, the peak could occur towards the end of the year, specifically in the months of October, November, or December.

How does Bob Lucas propose to manage the risk of an unexpected market downturn?

Bob Lucas suggests staying disciplined, being aware of the risks, and not leveraging too much. He also mentions the possibility of scaling out of positions as the market gets more stretched and sentiment becomes more extreme.

What is the purpose of the raffle for the first 365 ordinals?

The raffle for the first 365 ordinals is a way to distribute these unique tokens to followers and supporters of the series, symbolizing their participation and contribution to the Bitcoin journey.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Introduction to Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle and Market Developments

Bob Lucas introduces the video, discussing the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and recent significant market changes. He highlights the possibility of a left-translated cycle and the potential for a peak in 2024. Lucas emphasizes the challenge of predicting prices but focuses on exploring possibilities within the next 6 to 9 months. He also teases a discussion on 'ordinals' related to the Bitcoin chain.

05:02

🔄 Understanding Left and Right Translation in Market Cycles

Lucas delves into the concept of left and right translation in cycles, a phenomenon observed across various asset classes. He challenges the assumption that Bitcoin's market will indefinitely follow a right-translated cycle pattern and suggests that a left-translated cycle, indicating a faster move to an all-time high, might be more likely. He also discusses the role of institutional investors and the accelerated pace of the current cycle.

10:06

🚀 Speculative Moves and the Potential for a Market Blow-off

The speaker outlines his thoughts on the current market dynamics, suggesting that Bitcoin has entered a speculative move that could lead to a peak within 6 to 8 months. He differentiates between predictions and possibilities and advises on strategies without specifying price targets. Lucas also briefly touches on the concept of long-term cycles, hinting at a potential 16 to 20-year cycle for Bitcoin.

15:08

🤔 Weighing the Possibilities of Bitcoin's Market Trajectory

Lucas presents three possibilities for Bitcoin's market trajectory. The first is a left-translated cycle with a high probability of occurring, which could lead to substantial price increases by the year's end. The second involves a cooling-off period followed by a base-building phase, culminating in a peak towards the end of 2022. The third, less likely scenario, is a significant market downturn towards the next four-year cycle low by the end of 2026.

20:10

🔍 Cycle Analysis and the Importance of Understanding Market Trends

The focus shifts to the importance of understanding Bitcoin's cycles, which are defined from low to low, with peaks varying each cycle. Lucas explains that while the last few cycles have peaked around the three-year mark, this may not be the case going forward. He anticipates a 12-month bear market decline starting from late 2026, providing an opportunity to re-enter positions at the next cycle low.

25:11

🔗 Cycle Intertwining and the Impact of Long-Term Market Trends

Lucas discusses how different cycles intertwine, with the four-year cycle being influenced by a longer 16 or 20-year cycle. He suggests that the current market behavior indicates a final peak in the long-term cycle, which could lead to a significant retracement by 2026. He also addresses the potential for Bitcoin to not follow the traditional pattern of dropping below the previous cycle's low due to its unique nature and adoption curve.

30:11

💡 Navigating the Market and Strategies for Capitalizing on Cycles

The speaker shares his insights on how to approach the market, emphasizing the difficulty of picking an absolute top in a mania-driven market. He suggests potential strategies, such as scaling out at higher prices and re-entering positions after a significant decline. Lucas also discusses the importance of staying disciplined and patient, and not getting swayed by market volatility or fear of missing out.

35:11

🌐 Bitcoin's Ecosystem and the Role of External Factors

Lucas expresses his views on Bitcoin's independence from traditional financial systems, suggesting that it operates on its own ecosystem. He downplays the impact of macroeconomic factors like interest rates and recession on Bitcoin's price, arguing that new capital inflows from various sources are driving the current cycle. He encourages viewers to stay focused on Bitcoin's unique market dynamics.

40:13

🎉 Ordinals as a Form of Digital Provenance on the Bitcoin Chain

The video concludes with a discussion on 'ordinals,' a form of non-fungible tokens on the Bitcoin chain. Lucas explains the concept of ordinals as a way to store digital objects with provenance on the blockchain. He shares his belief in the potential of ordinals to increase adoption and utility for Bitcoin and mentions his plans to airdrop free ordinals to followers as a way to commemorate their participation in the Bitcoin journey.

45:15

🛍️ Ordinal Distribution and Rewarding Community Involvement

Lucas details his plan for distributing ordinals, including a raffle for the first 365 ordinals and sales of unique pieces to cover inscription costs and support a designer. He outlines the different types of ordinals, such as common, rare, and legendary, each with specific meanings related to Bitcoin's history. He also hints at potential future utilities for ordinal holders and expresses his intention to reward long-term community members.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates on a peer-to-peer network, without the need for a central authority. It is the primary subject of the video, which discusses its 4-year cycle and potential future price movements. The speaker, Bob Lucas, uses Bitcoin as a reference point to analyze market trends and speculate on the upcoming cycle's peak.

💡4-year cycle

The 4-year cycle refers to a pattern observed in Bitcoin's price behavior, where significant market changes occur approximately every four years. In the video, Bob Lucas discusses the possibility of a left-translated cycle, which would alter the expected timing of Bitcoin's market peak.

💡Left translated cycle

A left translated cycle is a concept where the peak of Bitcoin's market cycle occurs earlier than the typical 4-year midpoint. The video explores this idea, suggesting that due to accelerated market movements, the peak might be reached sooner, potentially within the year 2024.

💡RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI is a technical indicator used in the stock market to determine overbought or oversold conditions of a stock. In the context of the video, Bob Lucas mentions RSI to analyze the current state of Bitcoin's market, noting that when the RSI is above 90, it often signals the beginning of a move towards all-time highs.

💡Ordinals

Ordinals are a type of non-fungible token (NFT) that exist on the Bitcoin blockchain. They represent unique digital assets that can be stored and traded on the blockchain. In the video, Bob Lucas discusses his belief in the potential of ordinals and how he plans to reward followers with free drops of these tokens.

💡ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund)

An ETF is an investment fund that holds a collection of assets, such as stocks or bonds, and is traded on stock exchanges. The video mentions the introduction of an ETF for Bitcoin, which has contributed to the increased involvement of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market.

💡All-time high

All-time high refers to the highest price level that an asset, in this case Bitcoin, has ever reached. The video discusses the recent all-time high in the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and the potential implications of reaching such a milestone on the future trajectory of the market.

💡Speculative move

A speculative move in financial markets is a price increase driven by investor speculation rather than by underlying fundamentals. The video suggests that Bitcoin may be entering a speculative move, which could lead to a market peak within the 4-year cycle.

💡Macro environment

The macro environment refers to the broader economic factors that can influence financial markets, such as interest rates and recession risks. Bob Lucas briefly touches on the macro environment's potential impact on Bitcoin, suggesting that despite macroeconomic indicators, Bitcoin has continued to rise in value.

💡Layer 2 technologies

Layer 2 technologies are solutions built on top of a blockchain that aim to improve its scalability and efficiency. The video mentions the potential for new Layer 2 solutions to be developed for Bitcoin, spurred by the exploration of use cases like ordinals.

💡Airdrop

An airdrop is a marketing strategy where a company distributes free tokens or cryptocurrencies to an audience, usually to promote a new coin or to increase the adoption of a blockchain. In the video, Bob Lucas talks about an airdrop of ordinals as a way to reward the followers of his Bitcoin journey series.

Highlights

Bob Lucas discusses the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and significant changes in the market structure.

A left translated cycle is developing and may be moving towards a high in 2024.

The majority of Twitter replies focus on the left translated cycle possibility and super cycle potential.

Lucas differentiates between predictions and possibilities, emphasizing the difficulty of predicting price.

The potential for a final blowoff move in a longer 16 or 20-year cycle is suggested.

Bitcoin has hit an all-time high 16 months from the 4-year cycle low, differing from prior cycles.

The market's accelerated move and the involvement of institutional players indicate a faster cycle.

Lucas proposes a 60% probability of a left translated cycle and its implications for market behavior.

The possibility of a traditional cycle with a peak in late 2025 is also considered.

A third, less likely scenario involves a significant bear market towards the next 4-year cycle low.

The importance of cycle lows for predicting market trends is emphasized over the timing of peaks.

Lucas outlines strategies for scaling out of positions as the market approaches a potential peak.

The potential impact of macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and recession on Bitcoin is discussed.

Ordinals, a form of non-fungible tokens on the Bitcoin chain, are introduced as a new development.

Lucas shares his belief in the potential of ordinals for Bitcoin and their role in the future of the blockchain.

An airdrop of 1435 free ordinals is announced to reward followers of the series.

Details on how to participate in the raffle for the free ordinals are provided.

The potential future utility of these ordinals, such as exclusive content for holders, is mentioned.

Transcripts

hello followers of the 4-year Journey

this is Bob Lucas here on March 29

2024 with another installment of the

4year journey I hope you're doing well

I'm coming to you from Station 3 here in

New York City and want to talk today

about some very interesting developments

in the Bitcoin 4year cycle it's only

been about a month since the last video

I normally space them out every couple

of months but I think we've had some

very significant changes in the

structure of this Market that warrants

kind of coming out here today and

talking a lot about what could well be a

left translated cycle that has been

developing and is in the process right

now um of moving up towards a high in

2024 so I want to cover today mostly

about this left translated cycle idea

where we stand in the current cycle I

listen to a lot of the replies on

Twitter asking for kind of what this

video should be about and the vast

majority talked about the left

translated cycle possibility or the

super cycle possibility and sort of a

lot of questions around kind of where

does this peak what's the the top and I

want to briefly talk about predictions

versus possibilities and make sure that

you understand that predicting price is

almost impossible to do and how we

should play the possibilities that are

coming up here over maybe the next 6 to9

months in a left translated cycle idea

or into next year on a traditional cycle

and then unrelated to the 4-year Journey

but also I think significantly related

at the same time is this 4-year cycle

ordinals that will be dropping for free

to followers of this series now I know

ordinals are foreign to some of you um

and some of you who are Bitcoin Maxes or

or Believers in Bitcoin as currency only

probably won't like what I have to show

you there but that's that's okay um you

don't have to stick around for the last

portion of the video but I will cover a

really interesting idea about just

rewarding people who have been following

the series with some ordinals that have

been Meed on the Bitcoin chain I have

I'm a pretty firm believer in the

ordinal movement for Bitcoin I'll cover

that in the last portion of the video

but let's get stuck into this analysis

here on the left translated cycle and

also where we stand and and looking at a

monthly chart the first thing we want to

obviously point out that I covered last

month but has now really unfolded is

that we've hit an all-time high in this

4-year cycle in 16 months from the

4-year cycle low and that's significant

because when you look at prior cycles

that we've seen by this point in the

cycle the market had retraced and was

nowhere near those alltime high levels

and took until month 24 before it

pierced the all-time high level and then

moved up towards an all-time high for

the cycle and the same can be said for

the 15 beginning cycle that took also

exactly 24 months so you see the

fouryear Cycles to this point have

mirrored each other very well they've

spent about 2 years getting to the

alltime prior High building a base

accumulation and then then once they

reached the 2-year point which is the

midpoint of the 4-year cycle they went

into this oneyear kind of parabolic

almost like move where sentiment once it

hit all-time high sentiment rapidly

increased adoption increased but also

just general exposure um rapidly

increased at that point CNBC for example

and just celebrities and so on getting

involved in the cycle and that's that

last year almost 12 months to a peak for

a 3-year high so we spent from a from a

4-year cycle low 2 years to a peak one

year kind of blowing off year three

almost exactly as the peak and then sort

of 12 months down into the bare Market

low both of those or last three Cycles

were very consistent in that behavior

and that characteristic and that's LED

kind of everybody now to jump onto this

fouryear cycle bandwagon and talk a lot

of about the fact that we should in this

cycle continue for 24 months sorry 36 35

36 months getting us to the end of next

year for the next Peak and then your

your 12 months down to the next foure

cycle low rinse and repeat and continue

that process now I've advocated and

talked a lot about a left translated

cycle possibility even well before this

began and actually introduced the idea I

think it was back in 2019 in some of my

videos and I've done that because left

and right translation in Cycles occurs

in every asset class it's not unique in

any way to bitcoin or the idea being

unique to bitcoin it is just how markets

behave in Bull and bare Trends and what

has kind of uh been a Hallmark of

Bitcoin since almost Inception is that

it's been in this one long secular bull

market uptrend only interrupted by these

little cyclical bare Market moves so

youve got three years up one year down

that's the definition of a right

translated cycle because the right

translation means that the peak in the

cycle measured from a low to a low

occurs well beyond the midpoint but the

Assumption here that I think a lot of

people in the space of making is that

that kind of pattern of right translated

Cycles must exist or does exist

indefinitely and some of that has to do

with sort of stock tolow ideas that

limited Supply means Bitcoin will always

go up inde definitely um and just also

just people I think being a little naive

about a market that is going to be

perpetually in this bull secular Trend

and I don't think that's going to be the

case I'm not advocating for massive

secular bare Market declines but I do

believe that at some point and I think

it's a possibility once coming that

Bitcoin will go into more of a secular

bare Market that may not just be one

year of decline but two years or more

and I'll cover that shortly let's just

go back to sort of where we stand right

now uh as you can see all-time highs RSI

above the 90 here on the monthly chart

and every time it's hit above that 7 7y

level on the RSI and into the overboard

levels it was the beginning of a run

towards all-time highs and typically

sort of corresponded with the touching

of the all-time high level so we've got

a situation here where this Market is

around about 8 months or more ahead of

where it was in Prior Cycles which means

it's a faster cycle and that makes sense

we've now got an ETF in play we've got

the big boys involved got big Capital

not just crypto boys but we've got

institutional players probably Sovereign

wealth funds

[Applause]

[Music]

different from the beginning it's been

moving faster it's been getting up

towards alltime highs quicker and again

all the dips are being bought quickly

and that to me speaks to the possibility

that we are in sort of a final blowoff

move in a longer 16 or 20 year cycle now

why 1620 well because many other asset

classes essentially revolve around this

sort of 16 to 20 years secular side

and I do believe that Bitcoin will also

go through something similar a good

example is sort of the dot boom when the

internet came on board and everyone saw

the promise in the future it went on for

you know kind of like the tech boom

started maybe in the mid 80s but then

the internet came along as well and you

essentially had a number of these

fouryear Cycles within this larger or

longer degree cycle that peaked around

2000 then went into a pretty significant

bare market for for more than a couple

of years and took a long time to recover

those highs the technology was never in

question at that point um it was only

just a matter of the market just being

in a long-term secular bull trend for a

long enough period where it just needed

much more time to digest itself back and

to reset the Cycles so Cycles are on

this 4-year time frame but there is a

longer degree cycle that hasn't surfaced

itself yet because it's a such a new

technology we haven't even gone through

one of those long secular Cycles as of

yet so there's two main reasons why I

think the left translated cycle idea is

probably the most uh likely to be

occurring at this moment and the the

main reason is that we've had that fast

accelerated move up to the all-time high

level the level where awareness comes

back in not just from crypto natives but

from the broad Retail Landscape from

this from media in general once you hit

an alltime high it gets the attention

and then you begin to go into a

speculative move if we've entered this

speculative move which it looks as if

we're already there then typically a

move to a peak is only around about 6 to

8 months in this

cycle in 17 once it hit this level again

wasn't too long before for and forget

the price right because obviously it

doesn't scale as well but from a Time

standpoint you had this move up to a

peak around the end of the year in this

case um not where the three years the

threeyear mark would be and then also as

an example when it hit sort of this

level in the last

cycle bit of a different structure right

there but same kind of thing peaked

within 6 to 9 months and formed the

top so essentially once Bitcoin made the

all-time high and the

attention um became significant it was

at a point where it sort of reached this

escape velocity which it didn't really

turn back from and it feels to me as if

we're now in that at that point where

it's almost too late for this Market to

consolidate and spend 6 n months moving

sideways before going again I think once

it reaches a level like this it doesn't

typically pull back so that is my main

view for for thinking that this could be

a left translated cycle the other idea

for a left translated cycle really has

to do with the long-term cycle I talked

about um and if we have a 16-year cycle

or even a 20e cycle we're going to see

at some point we need to find a peak

sooner and a larger Peak a blowoff kind

of peak a peak that ends or Peaks for

now at least and sends the market into a

massive high that then uh comes back

down in a crashing um sort of uh in

scenario that then just takes a number

of Cycles a number of weekly Cycles but

couple of years perhaps down into that

next fouryear cycle low to reset the

longer term

cycle so where's that Peak all right

here's where we get into predictions

versus possibilities because I'm really

not here to predict a time and a price

for this this High not the game not the

name of the game for me uh my goal is to

maximize return and I measure return by

the amount of Bitcoin I can accumulate

over multiple Cycles um by sticking hard

to a prediction I think what um a lot of

analysts or Traders or investors end up

doing is boxing themselves into a

narrative and a bias that they find very

difficult to get away from when the

market doesn't unfold exactly as they

expect and predict and I think a lot of

people make these very firm predictions

because they're looking for clout

unfortunately uh clout to be able to say

this is exactly what I had predicted

look at how it turned out and if they're

right kudos to them but um that's not

necessarily um because of their

abilities just that they got it right um

we want to find possibilities that make

sense logical sense of course you can

you can map out a hundred different

possibilities and one of them is going

to be right you have to stick with

narratives and possibilities that have a

good high probability of unfolding and

the way I see this market right now is

there three main possibilities and one

of them here is of course this left

translated cycle idea that we are now

into the all-time high level and entered

the blower phase of a cycle and that one

is fairly not I wouldn't say

straightforward simple but it basically

means that yeah we'll get some pullbacks

within here but on the monthly chart you

probably won't notice it too much but a

move up here to an October November

December some point towards the end of

the year to form a peak before the

midpoint before that 24mon period in the

cycle now some of you going to ask

where's the price on that and I just

don't know I don't know because when you

look at Price Cycles even the

17 cycle is a good example you look at

these last two monthly candles at one

point just within 60 days of a peak it's

actually less than 60 days it was

trading at 5,300 and it peaked at almost

$20,000 so you're looking at a 4X move

over the last 45 days so it's going to

be difficult in the end especially if we

have sort of a monster move over the

last couple of months you know you may

be looking at price and just throwing

out numbers at 150 and if you look at

this as an example you don't know if the

last 3 or 4 weeks sends Bitcoin up to

300 350 400,000 before peaking it's just

very difficult from a from an actual

price perspective to find that top but

we're looking at timing right now and

looking at some of the indicators to

tell us where may be so extremely

stretched and then possibly the last 3

or 4 weeks in an absolute massive kind

of mania blowoff move for a peak in the

cycle this idea I give just the throwout

numbers probably 60% that we're in a

60% probability that that this left

translated cycle is where we're headed

towards now the other possibility which

I think is still very valid but requires

us to cool off almost immediately and

spend a number of months building a base

around this all-time high level around

about where we are now possibly within

60,000 and 880,000 as a

range so that would basically just mean

that we pull back from this point back

towards a 10-month moving average

possibly challenge this

$70,000 level again and then pull back

one more time and build a base all the

way

into I would say November December of

the end of the year and then begin the

climb up to towards the 35 month 34

Monon period like we've seen in the

prior three cycles that would be more of

your traditional cycle a cooling off

here A A

reaccumulation at this higher level and

then the final phase of the cycle to

unfold now that would mean that we have

to see a significant cool off in some of

these indicators which I don't think

we're going to get based on what we're

seeing right now ideally would like like

to see this right translated I think it

makes it easier to trade it also makes

it easier when the eventual top comes

around um for getting out of scaling out

of positions uh more or easier because

once you hit that three-year Mark you

know the four-year cycle is about to

Peak and especially if we're starting to

hit some pretty big numbers and we spent

the six or seven eight months moving to

a high it becomes a lot easier to begin

to scale out at that level cuz you know

a Peak is coming soon the third and

final idea which I give very little

Credence to is simply that maybe we come

up one more time and then we enter into

a pretty significant pretty nasty bare

Market down towards the next fouryear

cycle low which happens of course not

until the end of

2026 that I give maybe 5% but it's real

and it's there and I don't know if

there's much we can do about that

unfortunately from a a whole holding

perspective I think if that sort of

scenario was to unfold I think where we

get away with it in holding is the idea

that the fouryear Cycles have allowed us

to get in pretty much at the bottom over

the last two cycles so we're buying in

at the very lows and that that type of

scenario I don't think would come back

down to that level but obviously would

retrace a significant amount but it's

there and I think the most important

reason why is it's it's worth pointing

out is for people that are using perhaps

leverage or just mortgaging you know

their house for example you have to

realize that you know sometimes stuff

can happen and sometimes things just

don't go the way everybody expects and

you know you don't want to be in a

position where you have to liquidate

assets or sell Bitcoin uh after a very

prolonged bare market so I'm just

throwing that out there more as sort of

cautionary that there are no assurances

and no guarantees in anything we do that

a market has to go in this certain way

everyone is so fixated on this cycle

heading up well past the six figure Mark

into big big numbers and they look at it

almost as a complete guarantee and when

people look at things as a guarantee

they end up taking on so much more risk

than they really should be or not

thinking about the risk so keep that in

the back of your mind I think that's

important but I also want to focus on

the cycle lows here as well and just

give you a little bit more of a

background this because I do see quite a

bit of interpretations of cycles that

talk about the tops quite a bit and

really it's really the wrong way to look

at Cycles Cycles they have varying

degrees of the wavelength so basically

time so a a a cycle over time oscillates

and we've identified in Bitcoin and it's

actually very consistent in most asset

classes that four years is a good kind

of oscillated nothing to do with the

harving bitcoin's harving um but over a

4-year period perod The Market comes

from a from a absolute trough where

sentiment is Absolut in the gutter all

the way up to a your foric Peak and then

back down in a bare market decline down

to the next cycle which is the end of

one cycle and of course the beginning of

a new cycle so Cycles are always and

always have been defined from a low to a

low that's what a cycle encompasses

where the peak occurs will vary by cycle

to cycle now we've been kind of fooled

in some ways in thinking that because

these Cycles have all kind of appeared

right at that three-year Mark that

that's going to be the uh the outcome

here again in this cycle and the next

cycle and the one after that and I'm

pretty comfortable and confident saying

that that's not going to be the case in

the future although may still be the

case for this current

cycle so our goal here is to predict the

price lows of the cycle I think we've

done that really well in the last two

cycles and what I'm most confident about

and again it's not a prediction but what

I'm really most confident about is the

idea that into late 2026 we're going to

see at a minimum a 12-month bare market

decline so 12 months I say that from a

traditional right translated cycle to a

peak and that will be something that

allow us again in the next fouryear

cycle low when everybody is finally

capitulating once more that we'll be

able to then re-enter positions at the

next fouryear cycle low so our goal

therefore is to understand that Cycles

do oscillate over the 4-year period and

try our best to identify where the peak

in the cycle may occur and historically

again around the end of 2025 is where we

would look for the next cycle low but

we're now at least I am on the lookout

for a change change in that behavior a

change in that structure where we're

looking for a peak this year in the

4-year cycle and then what that would

mean if that was to occur is that yes we

may get sort of a double pump we had

something early on occur here back in

2013 where we had a massive move and

then a pullback and then a second pump

but that can still all happen within

this year so for example if we make a

big run up into the summer months maybe

let's call it 1301 40 we could pull back

one and then go one more time into the

end of the year for a double pump to a

peak that's kind of irrelevant at this

point um but a peak up here by the end

of this year forms left translated

meaning before the December midpoint of

the cycle barely left translated but

still is forms a peak but then as you

notice it would

spend uncharacteristically from the

prior Cycles it would spend that sort of

24 to 26 months in a bare market decline

down to the next foure cycle and that

would happen

mostly because this move here would be

really

outsized uh and really stretched to to

the high side here and again I'm not

throwing out price predictions but a

really big kind of significant move over

the next six to seven or eight months up

towards a

peak and then exhaust itself to the

point where it's just going to take a

couple of years to unwind that that

doesn't necessarily mean that we have to

retrace the 80 or 90% again a lot of

that could be you know massive uh

counter Trend moves all the way back up

maybe even a double top in

2025 maybe something similar to what we

saw here but not to the not to a new

high it could just take just takes time

overall to unfold in that

cycle so troughs are what are most

reliable and the top though is not

defined by um by by this timing it's

defined by the trend of the longer

degree cycle and this is I guess where

it gets a little confusing but Cycles

are intertwined so we have a 60-day

cycle we have a weekly cycle over sort

of 20 to 26 we period then we have the

4-year cycle so on the way up in the

fouryear cycle these weekly Cycles are

forming right translated they're Rising

for 20 weeks and they're dropping for 6

weeks for example so they're going three

or four steps forward one step back

three or four steps forward one step

back once the 4year cycle Peaks then you

see the reverse you have left translated

weekly cycles and 60-day Cycles you're

spending fewer days moving up and then

more days in Decline and that's how you

get that Trend back down in the cyclical

bare Market but for a 4-year cycle the

four-year Cycles are again defined by

the longest cycle the 16 or 20 year

cycle in this Market which again we

haven't seen yet but if we are on the

cusp of a peak in the 16-year cycle or

the 20e cycle then we're looking for one

big final move up to a peak in that yet

to be defined longer degree cycle and to

get a longer degree cycle you generally

need at least a left translated shorter

cycle the four-year cycle to unfold to

give us time to

consolidate and burn off the sentiment

of the full 16-year period encompassing

the entire history of Bitcoin I do

apologize for the honking in the

background being in New York City

sometimes it's unavoidable so we're

looking here at an example and I'm going

to try and sort of crudely draw

this so what I mean by this uh 16e cycle

is is that over this period we

have one

long 16e cycle or 20e cycle possibly 14

years

up 2 years down possibly you know 13 and

three possibly even 17 and three you get

the point this is a cycle that I believe

uh will end in

2026 and within this you have these

4year cycles and because in the early

portion or the right translated portion

of this long cycle you're in a secular

bull market uptrend what you have is a

4year cycle that comes 3 years to a

peak then one year

down 3 years to a peak and then one year

down 3 years to a peak one year

down I'm trying to align this as well as

I can

and then you've got this one to 2ear

Peak left translated

cycle and then

down so you have a situation where

you've got this long cycle in that's

rising and to get the the rising portion

of the cycle you have these threee

Cycles three years up to a peak and then

one year down so over a 4-year period

you're spending the majority of the time

moving higher and then a shorter

cyclical decline down into that cycle

low and so on in this last cycle the

longer term cycle the 16-year cycle

begins to head down and it needs over a

16-year period it needs more than one

year to decline over a 4year period you

can get that three up one down three up

one down on the longest cycle you need

at least sort of 14 um two years down so

14 up two down for example so this fits

in with a lot of the narrative a lot of

the ideas I've been sharing since

2017 that we are now kind of in this

final peak of this long 16-year cycle it

doesn't call for an end to bitcoin's

price

um acceleration it just means that we

need or we'll probably be looking for a

longer term degree decline into the next

fouryear cycle low now

historically in this last

4year cycle in typical asset classes you

would see this 4year cycle decline go

below the prior 4year cycle low so in

this case you'd be looking for an

eventual move below this 4year cycle low

now that's in traditional psycho

analysis I think Bitcoin is unique in

that sense um I think it is

revolutionary of course and I think it's

still very very early in its you know

its adoption and its curve that we won't

see anything like that but I do think

we'll see a significant retracement down

into a 2026 low and I think it's more

likely to come with a move over a 2-year

period so this is my idea of a left

translated cycle and why it exists and

why this Market behavior and this action

that we've seen over the last 16 months

to a high is this accelerated move and I

guess some of the Elliot wave folks are

kind of talking about this final wave

and that aligns well even though I'm not

an aliot wave guy in anyway um and not

necessarily a follower of it uh I do see

the alignment that here makes a lot of

sense with this longer term cycle that

we're

seeing so how are we going to play this

that's the million dooll question right

we can predict all we like we can get it

right but in the end what's going to

matter is what's in the portfolio um I

don't think I I predicted or got out of

the last cycle as well as I could have

actually I know I couldn't have I didn't

um and I want to do better in this cycle

and it's not going to be easy that's the

the first answer picking an absolute top

in a Mania Market is next to impossible

to do um it it just it just is now

hopefully this will begin to look a lot

like the 2017 move that was something I

was able to get out right near the top

and that's because it occurred late in

the 4year cycle and also came on a

extremely extremely speculative uh

environment right near the end it was

just obvious on social media and all the

channels that Bitcoin was heading up

towards a peak in the cycle so um I

guess what we'll have to do is play it

more real time when the when it comes

it's not a horrible idea if you've gone

sort of

Allin to put in some type of scaling out

um strategy where you're starting to

take tranches off the table at higher

prices I don't think we're anywhere near

that level yet I don't think we are at

an oversold sorry overbought level on um

on any of the indicators that weren't

sort of scaling out we've only just hit

an all-time high I do believe in this

cycle again we're going to stretch to a

peak and if it's in a left translated

cycle idea I think we're going to get

some pretty big numbers before we need

to start being concerned that this

Market has peaked I think we're at least

3 to 4 months away from that first

possibility in this cycle and so we'll

have future videos to cover where we

could be looking at maybe scaling out

but just just be assured that it's

something that obviously we want to try

and uh and land here as best as possible

over the coming 12 months now if we get

this sideways move over the next 6

months

then that is probably ideal that will

build a significant base that will allow

for kind of this super cycle idea into a

peak late in 2025 that will be easier to

trade or to exit from positions it's

this left translated cycle idea that

makes it difficult because it does

introduce the double pump possibility at

some point which makes it difficult

because you might get out right at the

top of the first pump and everything

looks great and then the second one

doubles from that point so that will be

also something that we'll have to just

pay attention to as the as the cycle

unfolds but yeah I mean look we we'll

have to just play it week by week month

by month if we get up to this higher

level and just keep a firm eye and and

and finger on the pulse on what

everybody is talking about just how

extreme or how you know how stretched

sentiment is and then I don't think it

would be a bad or horrible idea that we

begin to take Bitcoin off the table into

cash and sit then and wait patiently for

other opportunities we may also even

look for a strategy if we get up high at

some point and it's really stretched we

could look at sell at some point there

and then on a 40 to 50% decline possibly

from that Peak re-enter that position

and then see what reaction we get and if

we get a reaction High higher which you

think you should there's always a

counter Trend move after the first Peak

keep the position and then look at where

we bought back in or where the low may

have formed and if it rolled over so

instead of getting a double pump you get

this one move up it comes back down the

first time re-enter at say an arbitrary

40% decline from a peak and then if it

comes up and does not make a new high

and rolls over at that point or begin to

roll

over then you could employ a strategy

where you then exit that extra position

on the break of that low okay that again

that's something I'll begin to cover it

goes a little bit against sort of the

idea that we buy only at the fouryear

cycle lows we sell near the top and then

we wait for the next fouryear cycle low

in a left translated cycle again it's a

different Playbook so we're going to

have to look at possibly different

strategies for trying to make sure that

one we profit from the cycle as much and

as best as possible but two that we're

not left extremely uh pretty much on the

sidelines on yet another move that goes

up to make a high by the end of the year

so a lot of this is just going to have

to be a feel for where the market is and

how it's trading and what sentiment is

like more importantly as we approach

those higher

levels one more thing that came up a lot

in the questions for this video was sort

of interest rates the FED macro possible

recession and so on look my views on

that uh that Bitcoin still is mostly

although it's becoming much more

intertwined with traditional Finance it

still mostly is its own ecosystem and is

trading on its own and still in initial

first wave or first cycle price

Discovery so I I don't look for

correlations all that much I think when

you start getting into correlations on

the economy and the fed and and

liquidity and so and all these other uh

metrics that you can look at uh I think

that it just introduces far too many

variables in the analysis and makes it

confusing and I think good example is

the recession possibility and where and

and the yield curve inversion for

example that was something that was

prominent a year ago a year and a half

ago and the market have just ripped

higher and continued to rip higher

essentially ignoring those metrics and I

think that has left a lot of people

sidelined kind of waiting for a

recession or the higher interest rates

was not going to lead to any demand for

for Bitcoin and we see nothing we see

the opposite we see a faster cycle than

we've ever seen so put all the uh

correlation possibilities aside for now

and just I think appreciate that um

Bitcoin is still seeing a flood of new

New Capital come in from all different

sources and new sources and bigger

sources that's driving this cycle I

think for the next 16e cycle or 20 year

cycle from 2026 and Beyond then we're

looking at higher market caps where

Bitcoin is far more significant far more

relevant in the entire uh Financial

system that it will be far more

correlated to traditional assets and it

will move differently at that point for

now I still think we're in this sort of

final blowoff we now have this

Confluence of everybody involved

traditional original crypto natives the

retail folks from 17 and and recently

the last cycle and of course traditional

Finance

institutions some sovereigns and um

everybody now I think is on board and

that's why I believe that we're headed

towards one major peak in this longer

term cycle that uh is driving this

Market higher so you know we just have

to put all the noise aside and just stay

in position stay disciplined we will see

some volatility some significant

volatility at certain points there's

going to be a temptation to sell if we

hit 100,000 in the next few months or

over by the summer there's going to be

this fear of of not banking all your

profit going to have to pull all that

aside and and stay as disciplined as

possible looking for an extreme blowoff

move in the 4-year cycle to then start

to look to scale out just as everybody

um is you know everybody that you know

and every in all of the media and of

course again Grandpa and Grandma and

everybody else uh kids in high school

for example all buying Bitcoin and

talking about all coins and everything

else again as if it's something that

can't lose and can only make money we

we're not at that point yet that's why

it just needs more patience we need more

patience and more discipline and uh

we'll do well if we can stick to that

we'll try and land the peaks in this

cycle as best as possible uh no

guarantees there but that's the benefit

and the great thing about the fouryear

cycle is that we do have um the entries

at the low points on our side so that is

the 4-year Journey video for today thank

you for for listening now if you're not

into ordinals and don't like ordinals or

think they're a scam uh you can drop off

thanks very much for being here

today so what's an ordinal uh I think

many of you know but if you don't know

it's basically like an nft a

non-fungible token that exists on many

of the other blockchains essentially

it's a way to store um some type of

object on the Chain digitally so digital

objects um on the chain for attorney so

being able to store a relevant image for

example uh a link there's many things

you could store on chain that will take

advantage of bitcoin's security and its

blockchain nature so something that's

going to be there in the future in 5

years 10 years 20 years even 100 years

perhaps be able to look back and say

that a certain image or certain object

was uh inscribed on the chain that it

exists and that the holder of that

object is the owner of that object that

they were there that they participated

that they have that provenance that they

are the owners and I think that's a

perfect use case for a chain like

Bitcoin I know a lot of Maxes think it's

spam I disagree personally I think

actually what the ordinal movement of

late has done and yes a lot of it is

Spam a lot of it is junk there's no

doubt about that but that's just people

experimenting and using the chain in

different ways even Satoshi had

mentioned different use cases for the

chain howy of course uh talked a lot

about digital objects trading cards for

example on chain so I think the very

early original Maxis would have been

embrace it would have embraced this

concept and this idea but what I like

about or laws as well is that it has

spurred new discussions about how we can

get more adoption more utility

around the Bitcoin chain and it's also

allowed for developers to begin building

more scalable Solutions we know

lightning I'm sorry to say has been

pretty much a failure I think the design

is not scalable and sustainable it's

just too difficult to use in many cases

as well setting up channels and so on um

maybe this Spurs ideas on new layer 2

type Technologies built on bitcoin so

this could be a way

um to get better and more scalable ways

of using Bitcoin in the future so it's

an experiment in general but being able

to store an object on the chain that you

own that is yours that is proven

provable to be yours and with that

provenance that can be there for the

future I think it makes a lot of sense

so I believe in ordinals uh I'm not here

coming to you on the popularity of

ordinals I minted ordinals in the first

week uh I have around seven different

ordinals that are fouryear cycle images

on the Chain I was doing that via

command line script before any websites

were up or any tools were up I did that

because I saw immediately what value uh

that brought and I thought it was a very

cool idea so I minted a lot of ordinals

seven ordinals sub 100,000 ordinals that

are going to be part of this collection

I was fairly early to nft so of course I

again I'm a collector of of that space

But I also think more importantly I mean

this is a Bitcoin Journey it talks about

Bitcoin Cycles so what better way to

moralize the 4year journey series and a

series that I think has impacted

positively so many people by inscribing

uh basically tokens images um of

appreciation that you will hear that

will part of this journey that we were

one of the early ogs right I mean um in

10 20 30 years time all everybody here

involved today are going to be ogs in

some in some ways so um that is what I'm

doing here they're all mostly free I

mean we've got,

1435 ordinals that are going to be

airdrop free and I'm going to cover the

Dynamics behind that only 19 will be

sold and they will be sold mostly to

cover the $30 odd th000 cost of

inscribing and the designer behind this

who is a Station 3 artist and designer

who has put a lot of sweat and uh help

behind station three here in New York in

many different ways and is also designed

these ordinals I want to reward him so

he's taking a good portion of the small

amount that will be raised and the rest

will just go back to artists and events

here at Station 3 so it's not something

that I'm obviously going to be wanting

to profit from and it's going to be a

small amount overall so I want to reward

people who have followed and we'll do

that by a ra that I'll show you in in a

minute um that you can join they will be

free and then we'll also do some some

drops to some of the other communities

I'm part of and then in the next video

we'll also do another 365 representing

one year to complete the the the ordinal

drop for the last fouryear cycle I do

have the

idea that will have one oral for each

day of the Cycles so this is only a

working Pro ress please keep that in

mind in fact these two here have already

changed or will change but what we have

is U 629 ordinals that represent green

days in the last foure cycle 576 that

represent red or down days 169 that

represent 5% moves from uh tip to tip in

that day and then 41 of them that

represent 10 days in the sorry 10% moves

in the cycle so pretty rare at that

point giving them sort of common

uncommon rare and epic names beyond that

there will be some one of ones um and

these are what we call

legendaries and uh at the moment there

is four of each but they will change

color and style slightly to be one of

ones and each one of these represent

different things so there's kind of the

anniversary of the Genesis block within

the fouryear cycle four times it

occurred the first uh transaction uh the

pizza trans actually the pizza

transaction is here um the first

transaction the white paper uh

publication date and then Satoshi

disappearance so just kind of uh

celebrating certain key dates that

occurred at some point in its history

and then having an ordinal that would be

a one of one so each four of each will

have four different colors unique for

one of ones that will be for sale in the

um on the collection these are the only

ones that will be for sale along with

four very unique only one of each um

pieces that represent the start of the

4year cycle the end of the 4-year

cycle the all-time high of the cycle and

then uh a pretty important time in that

last fouryear cycle was that significant

Co crash where everything seemed to be

coming to an end so four these mythics

will also be for sale anybody that buys

any of the four mythics will get one of

each of the others as for free and

anybody not including a legendary

anybody that buys a legendary will also

get one of these sent to them as well so

um this is a way just to kind of you

know again embrace the ordinals uh

technology embrace the chain that helps

transaction fees this project will

generate around about

$30,000 in transaction fees alone to the

minor so I I like to think of it as a

way to also support the security of the

chain help uh in the adoption of

activity on the Bitcoin chain and again

immortalize this this great movement

this fouryear cycle movement and how

it's helped a lot of people here so how

do you get one there's a link in the

bottom of the video it's a 24-hour

raffle only for the first

365 uh you enter that you need an orinal

address if you don't know how to do an

orinal address uh I suggest you first uh

discover that make sure to only include

your ordinal address they will be

randomly raffled and then probably

within the next two weeks they will be

minted and sent directly to your

ordinals address the other ones here

that I mentioned will be on the magic

Eden website in about a week maybe 10

days and they will be available I'll

also provide that link there's currently

already four of them that are sitting up

there they those are the sub 100,000

inscriptions that were inscribed a year

ago those are what we call Genesis they

will not repeat they are the the Lynch

pen of the the whole collection so I

hope you appreciate these as as a way to

um uh to sort of again IM moralize this

collection uh there may be some utility

that comes with these in the future like

possibly um some exclusive videos just

for holders of of these ordinals

possibly a Discord of some type yet to

be determined not a promise in any way

but there may be some some cool utility

that comes out of these and these again

represent the last foure cycle for the

cycle between 2018 and 2022 once we give

out all of these 1435 ordinals we'll

begin to then give out ordinals for this

current cycle once we catch up with

giving out the other ones I'm also going

to go back into prior videos maybe some

of the original videos from four to five

years ago and if people had put comments

on there I'm going to ask you in the

next video possibly to provide and reply

to one of your old comments with your

orals address and airdrop a good amount

of them to people that were in and

involved in the initial original videos

and commented on videos just finding

ways to reward people that are really

just part of this journey so thanks for

listening hope you're all going to be I

hope you're well and more information to

come on on this drop but the link below

for the raffle is there thanks for being

here wishing you all the very best