Bitcoin: Wann sehen wir das Top?

Summary

In this video, Kevin S discusses the likely scenarios for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, comparing the current cycle to previous ones. He explores two main possibilities: a pattern similar to the 2020-2021 cycle, with an early peak followed by a correction, or a steadier progression mirroring the 2016-2017 cycle, with a final peak in mid-2025. He also emphasizes the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity, noting that Bitcoin's price typically peaks before the global money supply. Kevin shares price predictions and encourages viewers to stay informed for potential profit-taking opportunities.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin’s peak in the current cycle is uncertain, but historical data can guide potential predictions.
• 😀 The two most likely scenarios for Bitcoin’s price movement are based on the previous two market cycles (2020-2021 and 2016-2017).
• 😀 Scenario 1 suggests a peak around March 2024, followed by a significant correction, with the final peak expected by September 2024.
• 😀 Scenario 2 proposes a slower rise, with a final peak in mid-2025, avoiding sharp corrections seen in previous cycles.
• 😀 Global liquidity has a strong correlation with Bitcoin’s price, making it a useful tool for estimating future market movements.
• 😀 Historically, Bitcoin tends to reach its peak around 160 days before the global money supply does, suggesting mid-2025 for Bitcoin’s peak.
• 😀 Bitcoin’s final top could occur in 2025, with the exact timing depending on the development of market liquidity and global economic conditions.
• 😀 The analysis predicts a Bitcoin price between $100,000 and $500,000 by mid-2025, with a weighted average of $189,000.
• 😀 Ethereum (ETH) is expected to reach around $7,600 by mid-2025, while Solana (SOL) could hit around $663.
• 😀 Despite uncertainty, the speaker emphasizes that using market data and historical patterns helps frame realistic expectations for price movements.
• 😀 The speaker suggests that patience is key, as Bitcoin’s peak is likely months away, and short-term corrections should be anticipated before reaching the final top.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of the video?

The video discusses the possible future scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement, including potential peaks and corrections. It also considers the correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity, and presents predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins based on these factors.

What does the speaker mean by 'history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes'?

The speaker uses this phrase to highlight that while past cycles in the cryptocurrency market may not exactly repeat, similar patterns and trends tend to emerge. This idea is central to predicting Bitcoin’s future price movements based on historical performance.

What are the two most likely scenarios for the current Bitcoin cycle?

The speaker identifies two likely scenarios: one where the current cycle mirrors the previous cycle (2020-2021), with an early peak followed by a correction and then a final peak in 2025; and another scenario where the cycle follows the cycle from 2016-2017, which saw slower and steadier growth without a major correction.

How long did it take for Bitcoin to reach its first peak in the last cycle?

In the previous cycle (2020-2021), it took approximately 17 weeks from breaking the previous all-time high to reach the first peak at the start of 2021.

What is the expected timeline for Bitcoin’s first peak in the current cycle, based on the previous cycle?

If the current cycle mirrors the last one, Bitcoin's first peak could occur around the first week of March 2025, followed by a significant correction, before reaching the final peak around September 2025.

What is the significance of the global money supply in Bitcoin’s price prediction?

The global money supply is strongly correlated with Bitcoin's price. The speaker cites studies that show Bitcoin tends to peak about 160 days before the global money supply does, and its price bottoms roughly two days before the global money supply’s low.

When is the global money supply predicted to reach its peak?

According to the analysis referenced in the video, the global money supply is expected to peak around January 2025. Bitcoin's peak would likely occur approximately 160 days prior, which would be around mid-August 2024.

What are the predicted price ranges for Bitcoin in mid-2025?

The analysis predicts that Bitcoin could reach different price points in mid-2025, with a 15% chance of $100,000, a 60% chance of $170,000, a 20% chance of $234,000, and a 5% chance of $500,000. The weighted average price is projected to be around $189,000.

How does the speaker view the possibility of the Bitcoin cycle unfolding differently than the previous ones?

While the speaker acknowledges the possibility of the cycle unfolding differently, they believe that based on historical trends, the current cycle is more likely to follow a pattern similar to previous ones rather than breaking from the established cyclical theory.

What is the speaker's view on taking profits during this cycle?

The speaker suggests that taking profits now or waiting to do so in the coming months is a personal decision. However, they believe it is likely that Bitcoin will continue to rise for several months before reaching a final peak in mid-2025, making early profit-taking decisions potentially expensive in the long run.