The Truth of the Matter: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

Summary

Dans ce podcast de CSIS, Andrew Schwartz discute avec Mark Cancian, conseiller principal au programme de sécurité internationale, d'un rapport détaillé sur une simulation d'invasion chinoise de Taïwan. Le rapport examine les pertes potentielles pour les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine dans un conflit militaire hypothétique, soulignant l'impact massif sur les infrastructures et les pertes humaines des trois côtés. Il recommande des mesures pour renforcer la dissuasion américaine, notamment en augmentant les stocks de munitions et en renforçant les bases stratégiques. L'épisode met en lumière les implications mondiales et les conséquences économiques d'une telle guerre.

Takeaways

• 🎮 Le rapport examine une invasion chinoise de Taïwan à travers une série de 24 simulations de guerre, analysant les résultats possibles en cas de conflit.
• 💥 Les États-Unis, Taïwan et le Japon peuvent garantir l'autonomie de Taïwan, mais à un coût très élevé avec de lourdes pertes humaines et matérielles pour toutes les parties.
• 🚢 Les États-Unis perdraient plusieurs navires de combat, dont des porte-avions, ainsi que des centaines d'avions, en raison de la précision et de la quantité des missiles chinois.
• 🏝️ Taïwan subirait des dommages économiques dévastateurs, tandis que la Chine perdrait également des centaines de navires et d'avions, rendant l'invasion insoutenable.
• 🗣️ Le jeu de guerre est réalisé en dehors des environnements classifiés, permettant ainsi une discussion publique sur ce scénario hypothétique et sur la préparation militaire nécessaire.
• 💣 Les missiles chinois représentent une menace majeure, détruisant des avions américains au sol. Les abris renforcés et des stocks plus importants de munitions sont des priorités pour améliorer la dissuasion.
• 🛡️ L'importance de la coopération avec le Japon est cruciale pour les États-Unis, car les bases américaines au Japon jouent un rôle clé dans toute confrontation potentielle avec la Chine.
• 🎯 Le rapport recommande que Taïwan améliore ses défenses terrestres et utilise des systèmes antinavires et antiaériens moins vulnérables.
• 🛠️ Les stocks actuels de missiles anti-navires américains (450 prévus d'ici 2026) ne seraient pas suffisants en cas de conflit prolongé avec la Chine.
• 🌍 Un tel conflit aurait des répercussions mondiales, notamment en perturbant l'industrie des semi-conducteurs et en créant des tensions économiques internationales.

Q & A

Quelle est la raison principale pour laquelle le rapport sur l'invasion de Taïwan par la Chine a attiré autant d'attention?

Le rapport a suscité beaucoup d'intérêt car il s'agit de l'une des rares analyses de ce type disponibles au public, contrairement aux jeux de guerre classifiés du Département de la Défense américain.

Quelle est la probabilité d'une invasion chinoise de Taïwan, selon le rapport?

Le rapport n'affirme pas que cette invasion est la plus probable, mais qu'elle est possible en raison de la rhétorique chinoise et de leur posture de plus en plus agressive envers Taïwan.

Quels sont les résultats globaux du jeu de guerre concernant les pertes pour les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine?

Les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine subissent tous des pertes énormes. Les États-Unis perdent des dizaines de navires, des centaines d'avions et des milliers de personnels. Taïwan est économiquement dévasté, et la Chine perd également des centaines de navires, des avions et des milliers de soldats.

Comment fonctionne le jeu de guerre selon le rapport?

Le jeu de guerre est physique, avec deux cartes: l'une de la zone Pacifique occidental pour le conflit aérien et naval, et une autre de Taïwan pour le combat au sol. Il utilise 2500 jetons représentant les forces aériennes, navales et terrestres des deux côtés.

Pourquoi est-il important de mener ce jeu de guerre dans un cadre non classifié?

Cela permet une discussion publique et une participation plus large de la communauté de la sécurité nationale, tout en rendant transparentes les hypothèses et les conclusions utilisées pour cette analyse importante.

Quelles sont les principales pertes projetées pour les États-Unis dans cette simulation?

Les États-Unis perdraient 10 à 20 navires de surface, dont deux porte-avions, ainsi que 200 à 400 avions, principalement détruits au sol par des missiles chinois.

Quels sont les impacts sur la Chine et Taïwan dans ce jeu de guerre?

La Chine perdrait des centaines de navires, des avions et des milliers de soldats, tandis que Taïwan verrait son économie et son infrastructure sévèrement touchées, avec de lourdes pertes dans sa marine et son armée de l'air.

Quels sont les effets globaux de ce conflit pour le monde entier?

Le conflit perturberait l'industrie des semi-conducteurs basée à Taïwan et le commerce mondial, ce qui aurait un impact économique mondial. De plus, cela pourrait provoquer un repli isolationniste aux États-Unis, similaire à celui qui a suivi la Première Guerre mondiale.

Quelles recommandations le rapport propose-t-il pour améliorer la dissuasion des États-Unis?

Le rapport recommande de renforcer les abris anti-missiles sur des bases comme Guam et au Japon, d'accélérer le flux d'équipement militaire vers Taïwan avant le début d'un conflit, et d'augmenter les stocks de munitions à longue portée, notamment pour les missiles anti-navires.

Pourquoi les sous-marins américains sont-ils essentiels dans cette simulation?

Les sous-marins américains sont extrêmement efficaces pour détruire la flotte chinoise, en particulier les forces amphibies dans le détroit de Taïwan, ce qui en fait un atout crucial pour contrer une invasion chinoise.

Outlines

00:00

🎙️ Introduction au podcast et au rapport sur Taiwan

Andrew Schwartz présente le podcast 'The Truth of the Matter' de CSIS. Il discute d'un rapport important sur une possible invasion chinoise de Taïwan, réalisé par Mark Cancian, conseiller principal au programme de sécurité internationale. Mark résume l'étude, expliquant que malgré la classification des jeux de guerre par le DoD, ce rapport est accessible au public et explore une invasion potentielle de Taïwan. Bien que ce scénario ne soit pas jugé probable, il est considéré comme possible, justifiant une analyse approfondie des conséquences pour les États-Unis, Taïwan et la Chine.

05:02

⚔️ Pertes projetées pour les États-Unis dans le jeu de guerre

Mark décrit les pertes considérables subies par les États-Unis dans le cadre de cette guerre simulée : 10 à 20 navires de surface détruits, y compris deux porte-avions. Les missiles chinois, nombreux et précis, constituent une menace majeure pour les forces américaines avancées dans la zone de conflit. Les avions américains sont également massivement détruits au sol par des attaques de missiles chinois, rendant la guerre aérienne particulièrement difficile.

10:03

📉 Conséquences pour Taïwan, la Chine et le Japon

Mark explique que Taïwan subit des destructions massives, mais reste autonome. La Chine perd des centaines de navires et d'avions, ce qui pourrait menacer la stabilité de son régime. Le Japon est fréquemment impliqué en raison de sa proximité avec Taïwan et de la présence de bases américaines. Le conflit aura des répercussions mondiales, en perturbant notamment l'industrie des semi-conducteurs basée à Taïwan et en affectant les échanges économiques mondiaux.

15:04

🌍 Impacts géopolitiques et économiques mondiaux

Mark aborde les implications mondiales du conflit, notamment l'interruption de l'industrie des semi-conducteurs taïwanaise, essentielle pour l'économie mondiale. Il met également en garde contre un possible retrait des États-Unis de la scène internationale, rappelant l'isolationnisme qui a suivi la Première Guerre mondiale. Un tel retrait pourrait laisser la place à d'autres puissances comme la Russie ou l'Iran pour étendre leur influence.

20:05

🔋 Renforcer la dissuasion des États-Unis face à la menace chinoise

Mark insiste sur la nécessité pour les États-Unis de renforcer leur dissuasion, notamment en construisant des abris renforcés pour les avions à Guam et au Japon afin de protéger les appareils contre les attaques de missiles chinois. Il recommande également d'augmenter les stocks de missiles anti-navires à longue portée, car ces armes se sont révélées efficaces mais insuffisantes dans les simulations. Il souligne enfin l'importance des sous-marins américains, qui ont joué un rôle crucial dans le sabotage des forces amphibies chinoises.

Keywords

💡Wargame

Un wargame est une simulation de conflit militaire utilisée pour analyser des scénarios potentiels. Dans la vidéo, il s'agit d'une simulation publique d'une invasion chinoise de Taïwan par la Chine, qui permet d'examiner comment les forces américaines, taïwanaises et japonaises réagiraient face à une telle situation.

💡Invasion de Taïwan

L'invasion de Taïwan fait référence à un scénario où la Chine attaque militairement Taïwan pour reprendre le contrôle de l'île. Cette possibilité, bien que jugée improbable, est considérée comme la plus dangereuse dans le rapport, en raison de l'agressivité croissante de la Chine envers Taïwan.

💡Missiles chinois

Les missiles chinois sont une arme clé dans le scénario du wargame, car ils représentent une menace majeure pour les forces américaines et taïwanaises. Le rapport souligne que les missiles chinois sont précis et nombreux, capables de cibler les navires et avions américains, en particulier les porte-avions et les bases aériennes.

💡États-Unis

Les États-Unis sont un acteur central dans la défense de Taïwan dans le wargame. Le rapport décrit comment les forces américaines subiraient des pertes importantes en navires, avions et personnel, en essayant de repousser l'invasion chinoise tout en soutenant Taïwan dans un conflit aux conséquences globales.

💡Coalition

La coalition fait référence aux forces combinées des États-Unis, du Japon et de Taïwan, qui coopèrent dans la défense contre une invasion chinoise. Selon le rapport, cette coalition peut assurer l'autonomie de Taïwan, mais à un coût très élevé en vies humaines et en matériel.

💡Abri renforcé

Les abris renforcés sont des installations de protection pour les avions et les bases contre les attaques de missiles. Le rapport recommande que les États-Unis construisent davantage d'abris renforcés à Guam et au Japon pour réduire les pertes d'avions au sol, car la majorité des pertes d'aéronefs surviennent lors d'attaques au sol par des missiles chinois.

💡LORASM

Le LORASM (Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile) est un missile anti-navire à longue portée, essentiel pour détruire les forces navales chinoises. Le rapport souligne que les stocks de LORASM des États-Unis sont insuffisants pour soutenir un conflit prolongé avec la Chine, mettant en lumière la nécessité d'augmenter la production de ces munitions.

💡Sous-marins

Les sous-marins américains jouent un rôle crucial dans le wargame, causant des pertes significatives aux navires chinois, notamment dans le détroit de Taïwan. Le rapport indique que les sous-marins sont l'une des armes les plus efficaces contre la flotte amphibie chinoise, et qu'il est vital de maintenir et d'accroître leur nombre et leur armement.

💡Inventaire de munitions

L'inventaire de munitions fait référence aux réserves d'armes des États-Unis, notamment les missiles et autres équipements militaires. Le rapport alerte sur le fait que les stocks actuels de certaines munitions, comme les LORASM, s'épuiseraient rapidement en cas de conflit prolongé, rendant difficile la poursuite des opérations militaires.

💡Chips informatiques

Les chips informatiques sont un enjeu majeur dans le conflit car Taïwan est un producteur mondial clé de semi-conducteurs. Une invasion chinoise perturberait gravement cette industrie, entraînant des répercussions économiques mondiales, car la plupart des technologies modernes dépendent de ces composants.

Highlights

The report 'Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan' has garnered significant attention because it's one of the few analyses in the public domain, while most Department of Defense (DoD) wargaming remains classified.

The project involved running 24 iterations of a war game over 15 months, analyzing combat scenarios to provide a detailed and consistent analytic foundation.

The United States, Taiwan, and Japan can ensure Taiwan's autonomy, but at a heavy price—dozens of U.S. ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of personnel are lost.

China would also suffer significant losses, including hundreds of ships, aircraft, and personnel, making the invasion devastating for all parties involved.

The wargame doesn't argue that an invasion is likely, but that it is possible given China’s aggressive stance toward Taiwan.

The U.S. Air Force and Navy could experience a cultural shock, as they've operated in protected environments since World War II but would face heavy casualties in a peer-to-peer conflict.

The Chinese Missile Force poses a significant threat to U.S. aircraft carriers, with two being sunk in most of the iterations, a catastrophic loss given the limited number of carriers.

Most U.S. aircraft losses (200-400 aircraft) would occur on the ground, due to the vulnerability of U.S. airbases within Chinese missile range.

The report stresses that reinforcements and logistics for Taiwan would be nearly impossible to deliver once the war begins due to the Chinese military blockade.

The global economy, particularly the computer chip industry in Taiwan, would be heavily disrupted by a conflict, affecting markets worldwide.

U.S. casualties in the first three weeks of conflict would be about half of what the U.S. suffered in 20 years of Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

The report emphasizes the need to stockpile long-range anti-ship missiles, as current inventories would only last three days in a full-scale conflict.

Submarines play a crucial role in U.S. strategy, successfully wreaking havoc on the Chinese amphibious fleet in the wargame scenarios.

The wargame highlights four conditions for success: Taiwanese resistance, U.S. military bases in Japan, improved Taiwanese ground forces, and a robust U.S. air force using long-range anti-ship missiles.

There is a need for public and congressional debates on the findings, especially regarding munitions stockpiles and infrastructure upgrades in the Pacific region, such as hardened shelters for aircraft.

Transcripts

[Music]

I'm Andrew Schwartz and you're listening

to the truth of the matter a podcast by

csis where we break down the top policy

issues of the day and talk with the

people that can help us best understand

what's really going on

to get to the truth of the matter about

the hottest report coming out of a think

tank in town this week we have with us

Mark cancerian of our International

Security program who's a senior advisor

at csis Mark your report wargaming a

Chinese invasion of Taiwan has really

taken Washington in certain parts of the

world by storm can you give us an

overview of the report that you released

this week

sure let me say first that I think the

report has received a lot of attention

because it's one of the few such

analyzes that's available in the public

you know the dod has done a lot of

classified War gaming but that's all

behind closed doors very little detail

gets out this is entirely in the public

domain

we also ran it 24 times to provide a

strong analytic foundation and we spent

a lot of time looking at history and

test results to come up with tables and

computer programs for combat results so

that the adjudication would be the same

across the board

we've been running this project for 15

months developed this war game and then

ran 24 iterations of the war game the

board game examines a Chinese invasion

of Taiwan we don't argue that this is

the most probable course of action and

we certainly don't argue that it is

likely but we do argue that it is

possible given Chinese rhetoric and

their increasingly aggressive stance

towards Taiwan and also it's the most

dangerous uh Chinese scores of action so

we argue that it's important to do

analysis of this course of action

what we found was that the United States

Taiwan and Japan can ensure that Taiwan

continues as an autonomous and

Democratic entity however that comes at

a very high price the United States in

its Coalition lose dozens of ships

hundreds of aircraft and thousands of

personnel the Taiwanese economy is

devastated and the Chinese suffer

heavily also they lose hundreds of ships

hundreds of aircraft and thousands of

personnel it is devastating for all

concerns so we make a variety of

recommendations at the end to enhance

deterrence and if deterrence fails to

bring the conflict to a conclusion more

rapidly let's back up for a second can

you give us

context about how a war game actually

works uh yes this is a physical war game

there are two maps one is a five foot by

six foot map of the Western Pacific

that's where we play the operational

aspects of the game the air and Naval

conflict is a smaller map of Taiwan

where we played the ground game

the game has about 2500 counters that

represent air Naval Ground Forces

missile forces and it has two sides a

Chinese side and a U.S Japan Taiwanese

side

we had participants from the spectrum of

the National Security Community a lot of

senior Military Officers retire to see

governmental officials but also members

of uh think tanks and academic

institutions are around town Mark can

you explain why doing a war game outside

of a classified environment is an

important exercise that's what we did

none of this involved any classified

information it wasn't done in a skiff it

wasn't part of a government exercise

this is in the totally in the public

domain and I think that's partly why you

know we're seeing a lot of attention for

this report it's the first of its kind

explain why this is important to do

well it's important to do because this

is such a visible public policy issue

over the last number of years of course

the Chinese have built a very powerful

military and the rhetoric has become

increasingly aggressive so uh now what

was once considered outside of the realm

of possibility is now an everyday

discussion that is a Chinese invasion of

Taiwan we believed it was important to

have a public discussion so that all

elements of the National Security

Community could participate and that we

could lay out

all of our assumptions why we made the

assumptions we did What alternative

assumptions uh were out there where we

got our numbers and how we came to our

conclusions so that the whole Community

could participate in a discussion of

this important policy issue

so you know in your report you mentioned

you know at the onset of this discussion

that the United States suffers heavy

losses Taiwan suffers heavy losses China

suffers heavy losses what are some of

the losses that your war game projected

for the United States the United States

loses 10 to 20 surface combatants

including on almost all of the

iterations to carriers they are

vulnerable to Chinese missiles Chinese

missiles are numerous and accurate two

of our aircraft carriers we lose two of

the aircraft carriers get sunk right off

the bat wow yeah the problem that the

United States has is that our Doctrine

and our policy is to send forces forward

in a crisis to enhance deterrence and

strength of War fighting if conflict

occurs the problem is

a great deterrence can also be a great

Target and what happens is as the United

States pushes forces forward bombers

aircraft carriers aircraft they get

inside the Chinese Missile Range and

when the Chinese decide to attack

they're very vulnerable we lose a couple

aircraft carriers which is catastrophic

you know the United States only has what

do we have 15 aircraft carriers total uh

12. we have 12. okay so we lose two of

12 in this exercise that's catastrophic

what are some of the other losses that

we would suffer we lose 10 to 20 surface

combatants and hundreds of aircraft

generally 200 to 400 U.S aircraft but

sometimes as many as 500

interestingly most of these are lost on

the ground to Chinese missile attacks

the problem is that the United States

has to move these aircraft forward in

order to strike at the Chinese Fleet

particularly its amphibious forces that

puts them inside the Chinese Missile

Range so that Chinese missiles will

regularly attack the airfields the

United States loses hundreds of

aircrafts on the ground but nevertheless

can continue to attack the Chinese Fleet

and over time a traded so the Chinese

cannot sustain their invasion of Taiwan

so it's no wonder that we're getting a

lot of inquiries from Capitol Hill

members of Congress and their staff want

you to brief them on this exercise

because you know there's a real heavy

cost to the United States getting

involved in a conflict like this what

are some of the costs to China what are

some of the costs to Taiwan in

comparison to the United States

well let me say first for the United

States this level of casualties is

unprecedented since the second world war

the United States loses about half as

many troops in three weeks as it did in

20 years of conflict in Iraq and

Afghanistan for the Air Force and navy

this is going to be particularly

traumatic because they've operated in

sanctuaries since the second world war

they're going to lose aircraft and ships

at a rate that they've haven't

experienced in a long time

the example we use is on okinaw the US

Air Base there follow on aircraft will

land on a base where the runways are all

pop marked with craters they're going to

taxi past hundreds of U.S aircraft that

have been destroyed on the ground and

bulldozed uh to the side of the runway

they're going to move into a Barracks

that was recently emptied because the

previous Squadron was destroyed on the

ground and the hospitals will be filled

with hundreds of casualties and these

follow-on forces can be told welcome to

Okinawa tomorrow you fly against the

Chinese that did all this destruction

the U.S Air Force and they have not

lived in that kind of environment it's a

cultural change for them

the senior leadership understands that

when you listen to their their comments

they recognize that conflict against a

peer competitor will be different from

what we've experienced really for an

entire generation but that will take

time to percolate down into the entire

uh Institution

looking at Taiwan and Japan and China

for Taiwan the

conflict will be devastating although

they sustain themselves as an autonomous

entity the economy is devastated because

the Chinese of course are landing on uh

their island is fighting on the island

in many of their cities much of the

infrastructure gets destroyed as the

Chinese tried to pin down Taiwanese

forces and a Taiwanese lose a lot of

their Air Force and their Navy right off

the bat though they're very exposed one

of our recommendations is that they move

over time towards anti-ship anti-airs

systems on land that are less vulnerable

because they're in a very different

environment

the Chinese also lose a lot of forces

they lose hundreds of ships and hundreds

of aircraft uh and then if their

Invasion fails as it usually does they'd

probably be thousands maybe tens of

thousands of pows it's a level of loss

that might endanger the stability of the

Chinese communist regime

the Japanese also get dragged into the

war frequently in something like 19 of

our 24 iterations that the Japanese get

dragged in because of the U.S bases that

connection with Japan is absolutely

vital for the United States we have to

use those bases because they're close to

Taiwan our own bases in places like Guam

and in Australia are just too far away

to sustain the fight so the United

States needs that connection with Japan

the problem is that often Japan gets

Dragged In also this is heavy duty all

around what are some of the losses that

extend beyond the battlefield what are

some of the larger implications

there are two larger implications the

one is that the entire Globe will feel

the effects of this conflict because of

course much of the computer chip

industry is on Taiwan and that would be

entirely disrupted further the Chinese

economy exports to the rest of the world

much of that would be disrupted so the

whole world will feel the effects of

this conflict even if they are not

directly involved

another effect that we worry about is

that although the United States prevails

that this might set off a sentiment for

isolationism as we saw after the first

world war the United States might

withdraw from much of the world and

leave that then exposed to other

adversaries

Russia Iran or others

the other question I have along these

lines is what did your report show in

terms of hurting the United States

standing globally if we were to engage

in such a conflict

well such a conflict would take the

entire attention of the United States we

did run some excursions where the United

States was diverted by other crises

Ukraine for example the Middle East so

couldn't flow quite as many forces but

it's the casualties that would have a

lasting effect first it would take many

years to replace the ships and aircraft

that are lost but there's also the risk

that the United States will become

disillusioned with overseas commitments

and pull back in a kind of isolationism

that we saw in the 1920s so Mark the war

game results in the report concluded

that the United States urgently needs to

strengthen its deterrence what steps

should the United States take to make

that happen

there are a variety of things that the

United States should do for example we

need to build hardened shelters in

places like Guam but also in Japan and

the reason is that 90 of aircraft losses

were on the ground because they were

exposed to Chinese missile attacks

building heart and shelters will protect

them it's not 100 protection but it

greatly complicates the Chinese attack

problem

we need to increase the flow of

equipment to Taiwan the FMS process is

slow and is probably blame on both sides

but one thing we found was that once the

War Began you couldn't get anything onto

Taiwan in other words

the Chinese bubble over Taiwan was so

tight you couldn't get reinforcements

onto the island or Logistics on several

iterations the U.S player tried to do

that it was always a failure they lost

entire battalions and squadrons of ships

trying to get through this Chinese

bubble that means that the strategy

we've used with Ukraine will not work

once the War Began of course with

Ukraine we've flowed weapons and

Munitions to Ukraine the Russians have

tried to interdict that flow but they

haven't been able to do that that

strategy won't work with Chinese in an

attack on Taiwan another thing that pops

out is the need for larger inventories

of Munitions particularly long-range

anti-ship Munitions those Munitions

coupled with bombers were very effective

the bombas could be based outside of the

Chinese defensive Zone they could fly

into it launch long-range missiles

against the Chinese Fleet those were

devastating the problem was the U.S

inventory lasted 3 three days three days

wow typically one turn the problem was

that we have a lot of land attack

Munitions very few anti-ship Munitions

and our current plans don't change that

so one of our recommendations is we need

to we need to switch the balance towards

these anti-ship Munitions many of them

of course would need to be launched from

Air Force aircraft although the Air

Force has a long history of doing

anti-ship operations that's not what

they're inclined to do and they need to

push to do more in that regard

so the weapon you're talking about is

known as a long-range anti-ship missile

or lorazum is what we call them right

there's about 450 that the United States

currently possesses you're saying those

stockpiles are going to run out quickly

in such an event we need to beef up you

know at the same time this morning I was

listening to CNBC and you know the guys

were talking about how you know defense

stocks defense company stocks and how

because of the new makeup of the the

Congress and because of the war in

Ukraine and because of stuff like what

we're talking about here defense stocks

are pretty hard to game out but they

could be pretty hot I don't I'm not

asking you to speculate on the stock

market or anything but we are talking

about a real crisis if the United States

runs low on equipment and Munitions

aren't we

well we are and as we've highlighted

this shortage of lorazm the long-range

anti-ship missiles and I'd note that

we've estimated that in 2026 we might

have 450 today we probably have about

200 because we included some that are

going to be produced between now and

2026 which is when the game uh is set

this problem about munition stockpiles

is a general one we're seeing problems

with our shipments to Ukraine that many

areas many Munitions are running low

csis has published a number of

commentaries analyzing that flow the one

good thing here is that what we're

sending to Ukraine for the most part

does not affect our ability to fight a

war in the Western Pacific what we're

sending to Ukraine focuses on ground

combat anti-tank weapons for example

whereas the war in the Western Pacific

would be mostly air enabled so by

supporting Ukraine we are not

undermining our ability to defend Taiwan

but we have a com common problem in that

our Munitions inventories for all of

this are very low a key capability for

the United States was submarines whereas

the surface ships were quite vulnerable

submarines wrecked Havoc with the

Chinese Fleet particularly the

amphibious Fleet in the Taiwanese

Straits it's important to ensure that

the United States keeps building attack

submarines and that they have the

Munitions that they need because they

were so effective we call it the happy

time for you as submarines because they

are so effective against Chinese

shipping and that's a reference to

actually experience in World War II back

to your report and your war game you

listed four conditions for Success that

are necessary to defeat a Chinese

invasion of Taiwan what are these four

conditions and How likely did your your

exercise show that they could be met

well we've talked about some of these

conditions about long-range Munitions

one critical condition is that the

Taiwanese fight all of this is

predicated on the notion that they will

resist and resist effectively we think

that that's a reasonable assumption but

it is not a given and the Taiwanese are

going to have to step up both with their

own preparations and Military and

civilian we note the importance of the

connection with Japan as we've talked

about earlier the U.S bases in Japan are

absolutely critical we know the

importance of Taiwan improving its

Ground Forces

historically Taiwan is focused on air

and Naval forces because those were able

to keep the Chinese at Bay for most of

the 50 70 years since Taiwan was

established the problem now is that the

Chinese air and Naval capabilities are

so strong that they will overwhelm

Taiwanese air and Naval capabilities so

the ground forces are going to be much

more important they need to be effective

enough that they can contain a Chinese

Bridgehead and by time then for the U.S

Japan and Taiwanese forces to attract

the Chinese amphibious Fleet so that

they cannot reinforce their retails and

ultimately the Taiwanese are able to

eliminate it so Mark where do we go from

here what do you predict the next couple

months or years even to look like in

terms of Taiwan China relations

well I certainly hope that our project

has helped to put some issues on the

table so that the public the

administration and Congress can debate

these I would be wonderful the Congress

could hold some hearings on issues like

Munitions inventories like hardened

shelters things that would really help

both War fighting and deterrence it's

important to recognize that it's

probably also going to take some

additional resources this doesn't

require across the board increases but

it does require some targeted increases

to increase capabilities in the Western

Pacific Mark thanks so much for helping

us understand this really complicated

issue and you know your really important

war game that you did this week it's on

csis.org if anybody wants to see the

report there's video that goes along

with it as well Mark thanks so much

well thanks for having me

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