You Can Predict BITCOIN’s Price?! This Report Explains How!
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses a report by crypto research firm k33 that identifies factors influencing Bitcoin's price movements. These factors are categorized into demand, supply, and structural factors. Demand factors include sentiment, news, utility, macro, cyclicality, and accessibility; supply factors encompass the Bitcoin halving and lost/found coins; while structural factors involve portfolio rebalancing, management fees, treasury strategies, leverage, carry trades, and Bitcoin miners. Understanding these factors can provide an edge in the crypto market, especially when considering the impact of retail sentiment, news, and leverage on short-term price action, and macro factors on long-term trends.
Takeaways
- 📈 The primary reason for market pumps or dumps is often attributed to BTC's price movements, with the rest of the crypto market typically following suit.
- 🔍 A report by crypto research firm k33 provides insights into the factors influencing BTC price action, aiming to help predict market trends.
- 💡 BTC's price is influenced by a combination of momentum factors, grouped into demand, supply, and structural factors, each with varying degrees of impact.
- 📊 Demand factors include sentiment, news, utility, macro, cyclicality, and accessibility, with retail investors often being the biggest drivers of sentiment moves.
- 📈 Supply factors encompass the Bitcoin halving, lost and returned BTC, with the halving event and potential sell-off of Mt. Gox BTC being significant considerations.
- 🏦 Structural factors involve portfolio rebalancing, management fees, treasury strategies, leverage, carry trades, and the activities of Bitcoin miners.
- 🌐 Accessibility of BTC, especially through regulated exchanges and ETFs, is crucial for its price movement and investor participation.
- 📉 Retail investor leverage trading can lead to increased volatility in BTC's short-term price, with liquidation heat maps providing insights into potential market movements.
- 🔮 Macro factors, although currently less correlated with BTC, can still have a significant impact on its price, especially if a major macro event spooks institutional investors.
- 🚀 The report suggests that a continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with a reduced supply, could lead to substantial gains for BTC in the future.
- 📊 By understanding and tracking the various factors affecting BTC's price, investors can potentially gain an edge in the crypto market and make more informed trading decisions.
Q & A
What is the primary factor that often drives the rest of the crypto market according to the script?
-The primary factor that often drives the rest of the crypto market is the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC). When BTC pumps or dumps, the rest of the crypto market usually follows suit.
What is the main purpose of the report titled 'The Forces Moving Bitcoin'?
-The main purpose of the report is to present a framework that determines what causes BTC to pump or dump, helping investors understand and predict the factors influencing BTC's price movements.
What are the three categories of factors that influence BTC's price according to the report?
-The three categories of factors that influence BTC's price are demand factors, supply factors, and structural factors.
How does the report suggest retail investors typically act in relation to BTC's price?
-The report suggests that retail investors tend to be the biggest drivers of sentiment moves, buying when prices are high and selling when prices are low.
What is the significance of the Bitcoin halving mentioned in the report?
-The Bitcoin halving is significant because it reduces the number of newly mined BTC, effectively decreasing the inflation rate and potentially leading to higher prices due to reduced supply.
What are the potential risks associated with lost and returned BTC?
-Potential risks include the sudden return of a large amount of BTC to the market, such as the coins from the defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which could lead to selling pressure and affect BTC's price.
How does the report link the behavior of institutional investors to BTC's price?
-The report links the behavior of institutional investors to BTC's price by noting that their trading activities, such as the trading of BTC Futures on exchanges like the CME, can predict and influence BTC's price movements.
What is the impact of portfolio rebalancing on BTC's price?
-Portfolio rebalancing can limit BTC's volatility but also increase its correlation to traditional assets. As BTC gets introduced to institutional portfolios, it will be bought when it underperforms and sold when it outperforms, following the rebalancing strategy.
How does the report suggest using its findings to gain an edge in the crypto market?
-The report suggests being aware of each factor affecting BTC's price and understanding how BTC's price tends to affect the rest of the crypto market. By tracking sentiment, current and potential future headlines, leverage, accessibility, and macro factors, investors can gain an edge.
What are the challenges faced by altcoin markets due to regulatory changes mentioned in the script?
-The challenges faced by altcoin markets due to regulatory changes include restricted access to offshore exchanges for users in certain regions, such as the US and UK, and stablecoin restrictions for users in the EU starting in July.
How can investors assess retail sentiment and its potential impact on BTC's price?
-Investors can assess retail sentiment by using various sentiment indicators, with social media platforms like Crypto Twitter being a key source for gauging the sentiment of retail investors.
Outlines
📈 Market Movements and BTC's Influence
This paragraph discusses the common question of why the crypto market moves the way it does, attributing most market pumps or dumps to BTC's own price movements. It introduces a report by crypto research firm k33 that aims to provide a framework to understand what causes BTC's price to fluctuate. The report emphasizes that while it's impossible to predict BTC price action with 100% certainty, the framework can serve as a starting point. It also highlights that BTC's predetermined supply, governed by its protocol, sets it apart from other assets with less predictable supply dynamics.
🔍 Demand Factors Influencing BTC's Price
The paragraph delves into the demand factors that influence BTC's price, categorizing them into sentiment, news, utility, macro cyclicality, and accessibility. It explains how different investor types (long-term holders, institutional investors, and retail investors) impact the market sentiment and how their actions can be assessed through various indicators. The paragraph also discusses the role of news, utility in international trade, macro factors, and cyclical market behaviors in affecting BTC's price. Lastly, it touches on the importance of accessibility and how it can influence BTC's price regardless of demand.
💰 Supply Factors and Structural Factors
This section examines the supply side factors affecting BTC's price, such as the Bitcoin halving and lost or returned BTC. It discusses the impact of halving on BTC's inflation rate and how continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs could lead to substantial gains for BTC. The paragraph also considers structural factors like portfolio rebalancing, management fees, treasury strategies, leverage, carry trades, and the role of Bitcoin miners. It provides insights into how these factors can influence BTC's price in both short-term and long-term scenarios.
📊 Using the Framework for Trading BTC
The paragraph outlines how traders can use the report's framework to gain an edge in the crypto market. It emphasizes the importance of being aware of the various factors affecting BTC's price and how these factors can influence the rest of the crypto market. The paragraph provides a breakdown of how these factors affected BTC's price in different quarters from 2020 to 2024 and suggests that most factors will be positive in the remaining quarters, with the exception of leverage and macro factors. It also discusses the challenges faced by the altcoin market due to regulatory changes and provides strategies for assessing market sentiment, news impact, leverage, and macro factors.
🚀 Strategies for Navigating the Crypto Market
The final paragraph offers strategies for using the report's findings to gain a competitive advantage in the crypto market. It advises focusing on retail sentiment, news impact, and leverage for BTC, while considering accessibility and macro factors for altcoins. The paragraph suggests using sentiment indicators and following crypto-related discussions on platforms like Twitter to assess market sentiment. It also recommends keeping track of macro factors by listening to podcasts featuring macro experts and understanding the inherent volatility of altcoins relative to BTC. By monitoring these factors, investors can potentially gain a better understanding of market movements and make more informed trading decisions.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Crypto Market
💡Bitcoin (BTC)
💡Demand Factors
💡Supply Factors
💡Structural Factors
💡Sentiment
💡News
💡Macro Factors
💡Accessibility
💡Leverage
💡Bitcoin Halving
Highlights
The report from crypto research firm k33 provides a framework to understand what causes Bitcoin (BTC) to pump or dump.
BTC's price movement often leads the rest of the crypto market.
The framework considers both changing and interacting factors that influence BTC's price.
BTC's supply is predetermined and scarce,不同于其他资产.
Demand factors for BTC include sentiment, news, utility, macro, cyclicality, and accessibility.
Retail investors tend to drive sentiment moves, buying high and selling low.
Institutional investors can be assessed by analyzing BTC Futures trading on exchanges like CME.
News, such as major announcements or Black Swan events, can influence BTC's price locally.
BTC's utility in international trade may increase its demand.
Macro factors affect BTC based on its correlation to traditional assets.
Accessibility of BTC, through exchanges and ETFs, is crucial for its price movement.
Supply factors include the Bitcoin halving, lost and returned BTC.
The Bitcoin halving reduces new issuance of BTC, impacting its inflation rate.
Structural factors affecting BTC's price include portfolio rebalancing, management fees, and leverage.
Tether's commitment to buying BTC has created structural support for its price.
Bitcoin miners' selling behavior is influenced by BTC's price and interest rates.
The report suggests using the framework to predict BTC's price by monitoring the factors and their current impact.
Altcoins may experience different price movements due to regulatory changes and market structure.
Transcripts
whenever the crypto Market pumps or
dumps everyone asks the question why why
why why why the short answer is almost
always because BTC is pumping or dumping
where BTC goes the rest of crypto
follows this bags the question of what
causes BTC to pump or dump a recent
report from one of the best crypto
research firms has all of the answers
answers that can help you predict the
next big Market move that's why today
we're going to summarize this report and
tell you how you can use its findings to
get an edge in the crypto Market if you
hold crypto this is a video you cannot
afford to
miss the report will be summarizing
today is titled the forces moving
Bitcoin it was published by a crypto
research firm k33 and we'll leave a link
to the report in the description I'll
quickly note that to access the report
you need a pro account and coin Bureau
club members get a 50% discount anyhow
the report begins with a brief
introduction where the authors explain
that the purpose of this report is to
present a framework that determines what
causes BTC to pump or dump notably this
framework accounts for the fact that
some of these factors change and
interact with each other however the
authors's caution that it is
theoretically impossible to predict BTC
price action with 100% certainty and
that there could be other Frameworks
that are much more accurate even so the
authors believe that their framework
serves as a good starting point for
figuring out what makes btc's ticker
tick this ties into the second part of
the report which seeks to set a
foundation for the author's framework
the authors underscore the fact that BTC
is not only scarce but its Supply is
predetermined by bitcoin's protocol
rules this makes it different from other
assets which have less predictable
Supply Dynamics in the third part of the
report the author serve up the meat and
potatoes what determines btc's price the
short answer is multiple factors and
what's interesting is that the authors
look at these factors through the lens
of momentum specifically how they
increase upward or downward price action
they again highlight the fact
that these momentum factors can interact
with each other and they often take
turns being the primary drivers of btc's
price action the authors group these
momentum factors into three categories
demand factors Supply factors and
structural factors by the way if you're
enjoying the video so far be sure to
smash that like button to help others
find it and enjoy it and subscribe to
the channel and ping the notification
Bell so you don't miss the next one one
now when it comes to demand factors the
authors note that btc's in elastic
Supply makes the demand side of the
equation the most important within this
equation the authors identify six
factors sentiment news utility macro
cyclicality and
accessibility starting with sentiment
the authors further divide this factor
into three camps long-term BTC holders
Institute investors and Retail investors
the sentiment of long-term BTC holders
can be assessed using onchain analysis
for institutions it can be assessed by
analyzing the trading of BTC Futures on
trafi exchanges like the CME and for
retail investors it can be assessed by
looking at stuff like web traffic not
surprisingly long-term BTC holders tend
to sell when sentiment is high and buy
when sentiment is low also not
surprisingly retail investors tend to be
the biggest drivers of these sentiment
moves as they buy when the prices is are
high and sell when the prices are low on
that note the authors reveal that retail
trading activity on coinbase is still
very low and is at levels similar to the
beginning of the previous crypto ball
Market in late
2020 this suggests that retail investors
haven't really arrived yet and that the
current crypto ball Market is about to
enter its parabolic phase more about
when altcoins could pump using the link
in the description but back to the three
camps of the sentiment Factor remember
that institutional investors are in the
third camp now what's fascinating is
that btc's price tends to follow
whatever institutional investors are
doing on trfi exchanges like the CME in
other words they are ahead of the Curve
naturally the authors note that all
Traders should therefore pay close
attention to changes in things like open
interest for BTC Futures on the CME as
well as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and
outflows as they can potentially predict
how BDC will perform in the following
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now back to our scheduled program now
the next factor in the demand bucket is
news the authors recount how BTC hit
local tops around major announcements
such as the launch of the Bitcoin
Futures ETF in October 2021 they
acknowledge that the approval of the
spot Bitcoin ETFs seems to be one of the
only exceptions on the flip side BTC has
historically hit local lows during Black
Swan events such as the pandemic flash
crash of March
2020 it's safe to say there are no
shortage of black swans out there these
days but so far none of them have bitten
BTC
touchwood now next we have utility the
authors admit that BTC doesn't have much
utility these days Beyond being a store
of value from our perspective though it
is possible that BTC could once again be
used for payments this time in
international trade some countries are
reportedly using BTC for this already
after utility we have macro the authors
accurately point out that btc's
susceptibility to macro factors
ultimately depends on its correlation to
Trad fight assets such as stocks given
that btc's correlation to stocks has
come down it's likely that BTC is less
affected by macro fact factors black
swans not withstanding to be clear this
doesn't mean that BTC isn't affected by
macro factors at all just that his price
is affected less this is something the
authors stress and they also stress that
understanding which macro factor is
moving btc's price can be very difficult
this is an understatement given all of
the geopolitical uncertainty floating
around these days anyways cyclicality is
the next subcategory of demand oddly
enough the authors don't provide much
detail here they just know that when the
crypto fomo kicks in BTC tends to
underperform from the rest of the market
as everyone sells BTC for alss and mem
coins when the crypto fedd is still
fueling sentiment everyone flocks to BTC
for safety causing it to outperform
other Assets Now some would argue that
the spot Bitcoin ETFs have affected this
cyclical Trend but let's not go there
now the final factor in the demand Camp
is accessibility which is arguably the
most important factor of them all after
all if investors can access BTC its
price won't pump regardless of the
demand this is something the authors
emphasize as well as they know there are
two ways to access BTC natively through
crypto exchanges and the like and by
proxy via ETFs and the like the authors
point out the elephant in the room and
that's that there's a lot of pent up
demand for BTC from institutional
investors who are waiting for the spot
Bitcoin ETFs now that these have been
approved these investors have started
buying and because spot Bitcoin ETFs are
backed by physical BTC this has resulted
in big BTC buys that move the market now
in the second part of the report the
authors unpack the supply side factors
affecting btc's price they start by
saying that BTC has a maximum supply of
21 million and that new BTC are mined
every 10 minutes of course they know the
number of newly mined BTC is cut in half
every four years obviously the Bitcoin
halving is the first supply side Factor
what's not so obvious however is the
second Factor and that's lost and
returned BTC the authors use the defunct
Mount gox crypto exchange as an
example 142,000 BTC will be returned to
creditors and will apparently be locked
for 10 years regarding the haling the
authors note that right now around 900
BTC are mined per day after the haling
expected on the 19th or 20th of April
only 450 50 BTC will be mined per day
just to put things into perspective the
authors know that btc's inflation rate
is currently akin to Golds specifically
around 2% after the haling btc's
inflation rate will be less than
1% the authors hint that continued
demand from the spot Bitcoin ETFs
combined with the reduction in newly
issued Supply could lead to substantial
gains for BTC they actually predict that
BTC will grind higher into the upcoming
hving that's simply because speculators
will likely try to position for this key
crypto Catalyst or rather what comes
after it the authors know that the
crypto ball Market tends to occur in the
year after the haling and that
speculators will try to price that in
historically this is translated to 14%
gains preing funly enough the authors
don't seem to say anything to def ative
about btc's price immediately after the
haling just that the supply reduction
eventually leads to higher prices our
research suggests that btc's price
immediately after the haling could be
neutral to negative based on the past
haling
Cycles this is presumably because this
speculative bubble deflates and BTC
reverts to the mean in any case
regarding lost and return BTC the
authors remind the reader that Bitcoin
Creator Satoshi Nakamoto is believed to
hold 1 million BTC which could
theoretically be sold at a moment's
notice they admit that this is very
unlikely but the BTC still has other
much more probable Supply shock risks
besides of the return of BTC from Mount
GA the US government still holds around
200,000 BTC it sees from the silkroad
dark knet Marketplace and the like the
authors note that around 111,000 of this
BTC is expected to be sold and they
remind the reader that the BTC sales
that were planned last year never
happened probably nothing anyways the
authors also touch on the fact that
96,000 BTC from the 2016 bit finex hack
are expected to be returned to the
exchange and that the exchange will use
80% of this BTC to buy back and burn its
Leo token so far though only small
fraction of hacked funds have been
returned to bitfinex which is tether's
sister company also probably
nothing anyhow in the third part of the
report the authors tackle the third
family of factors affecting btc's price
which should recall are structural
factors they identify seven portfolio
rebalancing management fees treasury
strategies leverage carry trades
cyclicality and Bitcoin miners
beginning with the portfolio rebalancing
the authors explained that as BDC starts
to get introduced to institutional
portfolios it will be bought when it
underperforms and sold when it
outperforms per the rebalancing strategy
that many institutions use this could
limit btc's volatility but also increase
its correlation to tradire assets some
would say that this is happening already
regardless the next factor is m
management fees the authors point to
another elephant in the room and that's
grayscales spot Bitcoin ETF for context
it has the largest management fees of
any ETF by a wide margin these
management fees are likely contributing
to the outflows from its ETF the thing
is that this isn't unique to grayscale
spot Bitcoin ETF at least not in the way
that you think you see to pay these
management fees the asset managers
periodically sell some of the ETF shares
which in Practical terms means selling
small amounts of BTC for reference the
authors use grayscale's gbtc trust which
was selling 32 BTC per day as part of
its management fees thankfully the fact
that everyone is switching to using
lowcost ETFs means that the amount of
BTC being sold as management fees each
day will decline to around 6.5 BTC per
day in total when it comes to cyc it
meanwhile in this case the authors focus
on taxation they know that after a big
year investors may have large capital
gain bills that they need to pay off and
imply that this can result in sell
pressure in the short term come to think
of it it's possible this is why crypto
has been selling off lately whatever the
case the next factor is treasury
strategies the authors rightfully point
out that tether has been one of the
biggest contribut to this factor and it
committed to purchasing BTC using 15% of
its net profits last May since that time
tether has bought tens of thousands of
BTC creating a sort of structural
support for its price the authors note
that tether's BTC buys also make it a
counter cycal Force because the more the
interest rates rise the more BTC that
tether can buy for those unfamiliar BTC
typically declines when interest rates
rise the catch is that this assumes that
usdt Supply doesn't shrink and that it
likely would if Rising rates would bring
down the rest of the market most usdt
demand comes from Trading speaking of
trading Leverage is another crucial
structural Factor affecting btc's price
the authors reveal that retail investors
are the main parties using leverage to
go long or short whereas more
experienced parti ipants like market
makers often take the other side of the
trade they also repeat something that
regular coin Bureau viewers should know
and that's the liquidations of Leverage
Longs cause BTC to fall lower than
expected whereas short squeezes cause
BTC to Rally higher than expected it's
important to note that leverage plays a
role primarily in short-term moves now
in terms of carry trades the authors
explain that this involves experence
Eren Market participants taking
advantage of the discrepancies between
funding rates for different trading
instruments in plain English they will
buy or sell BTC along with longing or
short in the current direction of the
market when there's a discrepancy
between spot and Futures
prices finally we have Bitcoin miners
who often have to sell most of their BTC
to fund their operations the only two
exceptions are when btc's price is
rising a lot like it is now and when
interest rates are close to zero in the
case of the former miners don't have to
sell as much BTC as in the case of the
latter as they can take on debt instead
of selling BTC the caveat is that miners
may be forced into selling more BTC
after the haling if its price is lower
something the authors stop short of
saying history has also shown that when
miners take on lots of debt they run the
risk of being forced to sell BTC to pay
back these debts in the future
particularly when interest rates are
rising now in the fourth and final part
of the report the authors provide a few
examples of how you can use their
framework to trade BTC they provide this
handy infographic which shows you how
all of the factors in the framework have
affected btc's price over the last four
years by their estimation they then
provide a breakdown of how these factors
affected btc's price each quarter in
2020 2021 2022 2023 and 2024 so far for
the purpose of this video we'll stick to
the 2024 analysis as it's the most
relevant so far only one quarter has
passed and the only negative factor
seems to be leverage as you might have
guessed the authors note that retail
investors are to blame and that a good
chunk of The Upside and downside
volatility that we've seen since the
start of the year is because of their
Reckless leverag trades fortunately all
of the other factors appear to be
positive sa for macro which is not noted
as a negative for some reason what's
even more fortunate is that the authors
forecast that most of the factors in
their framework will be positive in the
remaining quarters the only exceptions
are leverage which the author Au know as
being an everpresent short-term hurdle
and also uncertainty around macro
factors which I just noted unfortunately
the positive factors may not be as
positive for altcoins that's because the
market structure in the altcoin market
Has Changed For example us and UK users
can no longer access the offshore
exchanges where the most promising
altcoins are traded and users in the EU
will experience stable coin restrictions
starting in July this brings me to the
big question and that's how you can use
the findings of this report to get an
edge in the crypto Market the answer is
to be aware of each factor and how it's
affecting btc's price and in turn being
aware of how btc's price tends to affect
the rest of the crypto Market to recap
there are three categories of factors
demand factors Supply factors and
structural factors the demand factors
are sentiment news utility macro
cyclicality and accessibility the supply
factors are in the haling and loss and
found coins structural factors are
portfolio rebalancing management fees
treasury strategies leverage carry
trades cyclicality and miners as the
authors noted throughout this report
btc's short-term price action is the
most affected by factors where retail
investors play a big role this means
mainly sentiment news and leverage the
other factors seem to pain more to btc's
longer term price action and to
institutional investors there is one
important exception though and that's
macro if there's some big macro factor
that Spooks institutional investors this
can likewise have an immediate effect on
btc's price action the recent spike in
oil prices is the perfect example it
caused crypto and stocks to slump with
crypto being dragged lower because of
the retail sentiment and leverage
logically then if you're looking to get
an edge in the crypto Market you need to
focus on retail sentiment think about
how certain headlines are likely to
affect retail sentiment and how prices
could be impacted by leverage in the
case of altcoins you need to factor in
accessibility for the reasons that I
mentioned earlier
assessing retail sentiment can be done
using various sentiment indicators
though the best one of all probably is
what's being said on crypto Twitter the
same thing is true for assessing how
retail investors are reacting to certain
headlines as for the leverage this can
be Tried by looking at liquidation heat
Maps these show you roughly where lots
of Longs could be liquidated and where
shorts could be squeezed note that we'll
leave a link to all of these resources
in the
description now assessing accessibility
for altcoins is straightforward it looks
like during this cycle most of the
altcoin speculation will take place on
more regulated exchanges such as
coinbase that said there's also been
lots of retail activity on dexes and
it's possible that regulation of sexes
will result in more Dex usage so don't
forget about how much macro factors
could impact the crypto Market keeping
track of these is admittedly more
difficult as it requires quite a bit of
expertise one shortcut you can use is to
listen to podcasts featuring macro
experts just make sure you're getting a
wide range of opinions lastly factoring
the extra volatility that altcoins
experience relative to BTC as a rule of
themb altcoins are between 50 and 200%
more volatile than BTC that means if BTC
pumps most altcoins will eventually go
up by 50% to 2x more and the same is
true if it dumps altcoins tend to
perform the best when BTC is trading
sideways which we haven't really seen
yet by keeping track of sentiment
current and potential future headlines
leverage accessibility and macro you
should be able to get an edge in the
crypto Market that most crypto investors
and Traders don't have now this doesn't
necessarily mean that you'll become a
millionaire but with enough practice you
might learn enough to lose less
money and that's all for today's video
if you learn something new Smash that
like button to let us know if you want
to keep learning subscribe to the
channel and ping that notification Bell
if you want to help others learn about
what moves btc's price be sure to share
this video with them and as always thank
you so much for watching and I'll see
you in the next one until then crypto
friends this is Jessica over and
out
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