How can 8 billion people sustainably share a planet? | DW News
Summary
TLDRThe world's population has reached 8 billion, with a projected peak of 10.4 billion by the 2080s. India's population, set to surpass China by next year, presents unique challenges such as resource scarcity and unemployment. In a Mumbai-focused segment, residents share the city's intense pressures due to overpopulation. Dr. Aparajita, an expert from the International Institute for Population Sciences, highlights India's declining fertility rates and growth potential. While northern states are still catching up in fertility decline, education, healthcare access, and skill-building are seen as key to ensuring India's sustainable future.
Takeaways
- 🌍 The world's population has reached 8 billion, with expectations of reaching 10.4 billion by the 2080s, as per the United Nations.
- 🌍 Population growth is concentrated in eight countries, including Nigeria, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India.
- 📈 India is projected to surpass China's population by next year, presenting challenges such as resource scarcity, unemployment, and climate impact.
- 🚇 Mumbai, India's most populous city with over 20 million people, struggles with overcrowded public transportation and limited infrastructure.
- 🏙️ Many residents of Mumbai, especially migrant workers, face difficulties with housing, sanitation, and basic living facilities due to rapid population growth.
- 📉 India's fertility rate has declined significantly, reaching replacement-level fertility earlier than expected.
- 🇮🇳 India’s population growth rate has been slowing since the 1980s, and it is projected to reach a peak of 1.6 billion by 2050.
- 📚 Regional differences in population growth exist in India, with northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar contributing more to growth, while southern states face challenges of aging populations.
- 💡 The government’s population control measures have had some success, but experts suggest a shift from sterilization-focused programs to more diverse contraception options.
- 💼 Experts believe that with investment in education, skills development, healthcare, and innovation, India’s large population can be a positive asset in addressing labor shortages and economic growth challenges.
Q & A
What is the world's current population according to the United Nations?
-The world's population has reached 8 billion, according to the United Nations.
What is the projected peak population by the 2080s, and in which countries is most of this growth expected to occur?
-The population is projected to peak at around 10.4 billion by the 2080s, with most of the growth concentrated in eight countries, including Nigeria, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India.
How does India's population growth compare to China's, and what is expected to happen by next year?
-By next year, India is expected to surpass China in population, becoming the world's most populous country.
What challenges are anticipated as India's population grows?
-Challenges include resource scarcity, rising unemployment, strain on healthcare, and the impact on climate.
What is the current population of Mumbai, and what challenges do its residents face?
-Mumbai has over 20 million residents, and challenges include housing shortages, inadequate sanitation, and overstretched basic facilities due to rapid population growth.
How has migration influenced Mumbai's population growth, and why do people continue to migrate there?
-Mumbai's population has grown by 8 million people in the last 30 years, largely due to migration. People continue to migrate because Mumbai is seen as a land of opportunity, despite the harsh living conditions.
What has been the trend in India's fertility rate, and how does this affect its population growth?
-India’s fertility rate has significantly declined and has reached replacement level fertility, meaning population growth is slowing down. India is projected to reach a population of 1.6 billion by 2050.
Is India prepared to sustain a population of 1.6 billion people?
-Dr. Apara believes that India can sustain a population of 1.6 billion, especially if efforts are made to improve education, skill development, and healthcare access.
Why are certain regions in India contributing more to population growth than others?
-Northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have higher population growth due to later access to education and healthcare, but these states are expected to catch up in the next decade.
What role does migration play in addressing regional population challenges in India?
-Migration could help address regional population challenges by redistributing the labor force, especially as southern states experience aging populations and labor shortages.
How has India's approach to population control differed from China’s?
-India has been more liberal than China in its population control measures, offering a wider choice of contraceptive methods. While sterilization has been emphasized in the past, there is now a push for other methods of contraception and more emphasis on education and skill development.
Outlines
🌍 Global Population Reaches 8 Billion: A Look Ahead
The global population has reached 8 billion according to the United Nations, with projections to peak at 10.4 billion by the 2080s. Much of this population growth will be concentrated in eight countries, including India, which is set to surpass China in population size next year. This growth brings challenges such as resource scarcity, rising unemployment, healthcare strain, and climate impact. A look at life in India, particularly in Mumbai, helps to frame these challenges through the experiences of residents in one of the world’s most populous cities.
🚆 Life in Mumbai: A City Bursting at the Seams
Mumbai, India's most populated city with over 20 million residents, epitomizes the challenges of rapid urbanization. Local trains are overcrowded, with people getting on and off while they are still in motion. The city’s infrastructure, housing, and basic facilities struggle to meet the demands of its growing population. Residents like Muhammad Khan, a migrant worker, describe the hardships of living in Mumbai, where resources are scarce and living conditions are cramped. Despite the difficulties, people continue to flock to Mumbai in search of opportunities, driven by the city's promise of economic prosperity.
🏙️ Mumbai’s Migrant Struggles: A Personal Story
Muhammad Khan recounts his tough experiences upon arriving in Mumbai from his village. He describes the crowded and chaotic environment, comparing the city’s residents to ants moving in a swarm. His story reflects the broader struggles of Mumbai's migrant population, particularly the challenges of finding work and securing basic necessities. Despite the hardships, Khan emphasizes that Mumbai offers opportunities unavailable in rural areas, even if life in the city is a constant hustle.
🚰 Infrastructure Fails to Meet Growing Demand in Mumbai
Mumbai’s population has grown by 8 million in the last 30 years, almost matching New York City's entire population. However, the city's infrastructure has not kept pace, with residents facing issues such as inadequate housing, poor sanitation, and a lack of basic services. Many, like Khan, describe the difficulty of daily life, including waking up early to collect water and sharing cramped living spaces with multiple people. Yet, despite the tough conditions, the allure of better economic prospects keeps people moving to the city.
📉 Declining Fertility and India’s Population Trends
Dr. Apara from The International Institute for Population Sciences in Mumbai provides an expert view on India's population growth. Although India will surpass China in population size soon, the country’s fertility rate has significantly declined to replacement level, and the population growth rate has been gradually decreasing since the 1980s. Dr. Apara argues that India’s demographic situation is not as dire as it might seem, with projections indicating that the population will peak around 1.6 billion by 2050.
💼 India’s Economic Base and Population Challenges
Despite concerns about India’s growing population, Dr. Apara highlights the country’s strong economic base, with a GDP growth rate of 7-8% over the past two decades. She believes that with proper investments in education, skill development, and modern job creation, India’s large population can be an advantage, particularly as countries like Europe face labor shortages. She remains optimistic that India’s economic growth will support its population, provided these key areas receive attention.
📊 Regional Variations in India’s Population Growth
India’s population growth varies significantly across the country, with northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar contributing more to the growth compared to the southern states. Dr. Apara attributes this difference to delayed access to education and healthcare in the north, but notes that fertility rates in these regions are already declining. Meanwhile, southern states are facing issues of aging populations, similar to trends seen in Europe. Migration might play a key role in balancing these regional disparities.
📉 Shifting Population Control Measures in India
Dr. Apara discusses how India's approach to population control has historically been more liberal compared to China, with a focus on sterilization. However, she believes the time has come to shift emphasis towards temporary methods of contraception and provide a wider range of options. People have already begun to understand the benefits of smaller families, and with greater investment in education, healthcare, and innovation, India can address population and employment challenges in the coming years.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡World Population
💡India
💡Fertility Rate
💡Resource Scarcity
💡Migration
💡Infrastructure
💡Unemployment
💡Health Care
💡Economic Growth
💡Aging Population
Highlights
The world's population has reached 8 billion according to the United Nations, with expectations to peak at 10.4 billion by the 2080s.
A significant portion of population growth will be concentrated in eight countries, including Nigeria, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India.
India is projected to surpass China in population by next year, creating challenges such as resource scarcity, unemployment, healthcare, and environmental impact.
Mumbai, India's most populated city with over 20 million residents, faces intense overcrowding, especially in the local train system.
Migrant workers, like Muhammad Khan, are drawn to Mumbai for economic opportunities but often struggle with the city's infrastructure and living conditions.
In the past 30 years, Mumbai's population has grown by 8 million people, nearly matching the population of New York City.
Many residents in Mumbai face challenges with inadequate housing, sanitation, and basic facilities, reflecting the city's strained infrastructure.
Dr. Chatapati, a professor from the International Institute for Population Sciences, believes India is handling population growth well, with fertility rates dropping and a strong GDP growth rate of 7-8%.
India's fertility rate has fallen to replacement levels, indicating population growth will slow, though it will still increase to about 1.6 billion by 2050.
Dr. Chatapati is optimistic about India's future population sustainability, citing the country's economic growth and potential labor surplus compared to regions like Europe.
There are regional variations in India’s population growth, with northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar contributing more to population increases compared to the south.
Fertility rates in northern states are falling, and Dr. Chatapati believes these regions will catch up with the rest of India in terms of population stabilization within the next decade.
In southern India, fertility rates have declined more rapidly, but aging populations could become a new challenge, similar to trends seen in Europe.
Migration could play a role in balancing population dynamics between different regions of India.
The Indian government’s population control measures, including a variety of contraception methods, are contributing to the decline in fertility rates, though more focus is needed on education, skill-building, and healthcare.
Transcripts
the world's population has touched 8
billion today that's according to the
United Nations it's a big number and it
will get bigger in the coming years a
peak of around 10.4 billion by the 2080s
a lot of that growth is expected to be
concentrated in just eight countries
Nigeria Tanzania the Democratic Republic
of Congo and others including India
which by next year will have more people
than China and with it will come
increasing challenges resource scarcity
Rising unemployment Health Care impact
on the climate I'll discuss some of
these with an expert in a moment but
first a quick look at what it means to
live in India currently Through The Eyes
of some residents of Mumbai India's most
populated city
foreign
if you ever plan to take a local train
in Mumbai you should know this getting
off and on begins while the train is
still in motion there are simply too
many people and everyone's in a rush
with over 20 million people Mumbai is
India's most populated city
in order to get down so yeah it's very
stressful
[Music]
Muhammad Khan is one of the many many
migrant workers who come to Mumbai to
make a living he works in a Tannery
inside mumbai's Infamous slum dharavi
he says Mumbai took him by surprise
people here run like hands the way ants
move as a crowd each one walking in its
Lane indifferent to others around them
in that crowd I too had to search for a
livelihood
in the last 30 years mumbai's population
has grown by 8 million people that's
almost the entire population of New York
City
residents say the city's infrastructure
hasn't been able to keep up with the
growing population
housing sanitation and basic facilities
can be difficult to find
has faced all of that
at first I didn't like Mumbai at all
life in Mumbai is very tough if you
don't work you can't eat at the age of
25 I was waking up at 4am and collecting
water from several places for us to use
in a 10 by 12 square feet area we were
10 people living by making a small
partition to bathe and wash we had to
share only one bathroom we faced a lot
of problems there was no tap in the
house no toilet in the house there was
nothing
despite the struggle people continuing
to live in Mumbai and to migrate there
in India it is the land of opportunity
I was 16 or 17 when I came here from my
Village my childhood was wonderful in
the village it was a peaceful place
unlike the crowds here
it had wonderful people happiness every
facility but no money
foreign
and so for money the hustle goes on and
whether people like it or not that's
what it takes to live in Mumbai
and joining me now for more perspective
is Dr apara
professor at The International Institute
for population Sciences in Mumbai Dr
chatapati we see in Mumbai itself where
you are how challenging it is to provide
jobs housing health care for the city's
residents expanding this to an India
canvas can the country sustain further
increases in its population
uh yeah um I I feel that there is
um a need to clarify uh some numbers in
terms of India's population yes we are
healed in terms of number next to China
but having said so our fertility has
gone down significantly and we have
achieved a total fertility rate that is
replacement level fertility at two that
is three years uh ahead of what was
projected uh so I think that uh
India's population may not be a very big
problem we are doing fairly well since
1980s our growth rate is gradually uh
falling down and because of the momentum
till 2050 our population will increase
and maybe till
1.6 billion monks so in population
parameters in terms of demographic
challenges I think we are doing pretty
well but uh having said so we need to
take into consideration many other
social issues and environmental issues
and I think our GDP growth
talks quite positively in the sense that
over the last 20 years it is overing
around seven to eight percent and until
an unless you are having a good economic
base you cannot invest on uh exactly
let's just let's just I'm sorry I'm
sorry I'm interrupting let's just try
and move away from the figures for a
second let me just ask you a simple
straightforward question with 1.6
billion as as a figure until 2050 is
that a sustainable figure for India
I'm very positive because if Europe is
facing crunching of labels I think
we will excel in that front and I
believe that Indian population if skill
is being added education and other
modern skill building is being imparted
I think we will do fairly well
let's talk about India itself because
when we look at the country and this is
something that you will have deeper
knowledge of there appear to be lots of
variations in population growth we seem
to be seeing that in the north of the
country there appear to be some states
in particular that are contributing more
to the population growth in comparison
to the south of the country what
explains this variance
yeah obviously because of uh lack of
education and access to health
facilities they started late and um but
they will catch up in the next 10 years
I think up and biha may not be a big
problem because their fertility has
already started falling and in terms of
some preference that we had a lot of
problems since 1980s even some
preference I mean sex ratio at Birth is
also showing some positive indicators so
if these parameters changes I think upb
may not create a problem
uh yes in the South they have advanced
their fertility Decline and their
problem would be aging definitely in the
near future that Europe is also facing
so migration could be a savior in that
sense
uh do you think uh does that therefore
illustrate that the government's
population control measures if I can put
it that way seem to be working at least
in parts of the country
China and we were quite liberal in that
respect and we have given basket of
choice yes having said so we emphasized
sterilization but I think now time has
come to shift the
over emphasis on sterilization to other
temporary methods of contraception
because people have already understood
that larger families not good so yes
contraceptive Choice shift is very much
needed along with more education more
skill building more access to health
care and investment on research and
development and Innovation and I think
Indian brains are one of the finest
brains in India and so if we can
progress well in Innovations rural
development and there are number of
Industries we need to have good
investment we can address the problem in
the job market too
a lot of ifs there but if they do happen
you seem to be painting a more positive
picture we leave it there for the time
being Dr apara from The International
Institute for population Sciences in
Mumbai thank you so much ma'am
thank you very much
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