Bitcoin Fib Tutorial - Fibonacci Retracements - Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Summary

Dans cette vidéo, Brian Beamish, également connu sous le nom de Coach Brian, présente une leçon sur l'utilisation des outils de retracement de Fibonacci sur la plateforme Coinage. Il explique comment tracer les niveaux de Fibonacci pour analyser les mouvements du marché, en se concentrant sur leur utilisation pour repérer les zones de résistance ou de support. Brian partage également ses astuces, comme la modification du niveau par défaut de 76,4 % à 78,6 %, et discute de l'importance du niveau de 38,2 % dans la prise de décision pour les traders. Il conclut avec une introduction au concept de zone d'entrée optimale.

Takeaways

• 💡 Brian Beamish, alias Coach Brian, présente une série de tutoriels sur les outils de trading de la plateforme Coinage.
• 🔑 Le focus de cette session est sur l'utilisation de l'outil de retracement de Fibonacci (Fib) pour analyser les marchés.
• 📊 Le retracement de Fibonacci permet aux traders de mesurer les corrections dans les mouvements de marché et de déterminer les niveaux potentiels de retour.
• 🔍 Les niveaux Fib comme 23,6 %, 38,2 %, 50 %, 61,8 % et 78,6 % sont utilisés pour anticiper les niveaux où le marché peut se retourner.
• 🖱️ Brian recommande de modifier le niveau par défaut de 76,4 % à 78,6 %, car 76,4 % n'est pas un niveau Fib pertinent selon les traders expérimentés.
• 🚫 Il critique l'inclusion du niveau de 50 % dans l'outil de Fibonacci, car ce n'est pas un vrai niveau de Fibonacci, mais plutôt un niveau de Gann.
• 🎯 Le niveau de 38,2 % est décrit comme un 'premier stop' crucial pour déterminer si une tendance va continuer ou s'inverser.
• 🐋 Les grandes institutions, ou 'whales', ne vendent pas dans des marchés en baisse, mais attendent que le prix atteigne des zones optimales pour entrer dans une position.
• 📈 La 'zone d'entrée de trade optimale' (OTE) se situe entre les niveaux de 61,8 % et 78,6 %, où les institutions placent souvent des ordres de vente.
• 📉 Brian met en avant l'importance de la structure du marché pour identifier les zones d'entrée et de sortie, en s'appuyant sur des configurations techniques comme les doubles tops et bottoms.

Q & A

Quelle est la plateforme utilisée dans cette vidéo pour l'analyse des marchés?

La plateforme utilisée est Coinigy, qui permet d'accéder à plusieurs échanges de cryptomonnaies comme BitFinex.

Quel est l'outil principal abordé dans ce tutoriel?

L'outil principal abordé dans ce tutoriel est l'outil de retracement de Fibonacci, couramment utilisé par les traders professionnels.

Pourquoi l'auteur recommande-t-il de modifier le niveau de Fibonacci 76,4% à 78,6%?

L'auteur explique que le niveau 76,4% n'est pas pertinent pour les traders professionnels et que le niveau correct est 78,6%, car il reflète mieux les véritables niveaux de Fibonacci utilisés en analyse technique.

Que représente le niveau de Fibonacci de 38,2% selon l'auteur?

Le niveau de 38,2% est considéré comme un 'premier objectif d'arrêt'. C'est un niveau clé où le marché pourrait s'arrêter et décider s'il continue à baisser ou à remonter.

Quel est le rôle des 'institutions' ou 'whales' dans les marchés selon l'auteur?

Les institutions ou 'whales' ne participent pas à la panique des petits investisseurs; elles n'achètent pas pendant les hausses importantes ni ne vendent pendant les baisses. Elles attendent des zones optimales de trading pour intervenir.

Qu'est-ce que la 'zone d'entrée optimale' ou OTE selon l'auteur?

La zone d'entrée optimale (Optimal Trade Entry) est une zone entre les niveaux de retracement 61,8% et 78,6% où les institutions sont plus susceptibles de vendre en cas de hausse ou d'acheter en cas de baisse.

Comment l'auteur explique-t-il le concept de la structure du marché?

La structure du marché est définie par des modèles de prix comme les sommets en forme de 'M' pour les signaux de vente. Ces structures aident à identifier des points d'entrée ou de sortie pour les trades.

Pourquoi l'auteur retire-t-il le niveau de Fibonacci de 50% dans ses analyses?

L'auteur explique que le niveau de 50% n'est pas un niveau Fibonacci réel, mais plutôt un niveau utilisé par les traders de la méthode Gann. Il ne le considère pas pertinent dans une analyse purement Fibonacci.

Quelles sont les trois raisons que l'auteur recommande de rechercher avant de prendre une position de trading?

L'auteur conseille d'attendre trois signaux indépendants avant de prendre une position de trading, comme un échec de momentum, une structure de marché ou un signal de chandelle.

Quel est le principal objectif de cette vidéo selon l'auteur?

L'objectif de cette vidéo est d'expliquer comment utiliser l'outil de Fibonacci pour analyser les marchés et identifier les zones clés de retracement et de résistance dans les mouvements de prix.

Outlines

00:00

👋 Introduction à Coinage et au tutoriel sur les outils

Brian Beamish, également appelé Coach Brian, se présente et introduit la plateforme Coinage. Il montre comment accéder à la plateforme et aux outils de trading disponibles, en particulier la paire BTC sur Bitfinex. Brian explique qu'il est un utilisateur régulier de Coinage et qu'il va se concentrer sur l'outil Fibonacci dans cette session, tout en mentionnant des ressources supplémentaires sur son site, 'The Rational Investor'.

05:03

📊 Utilisation de l'outil Fibonacci et conseils pratiques

Brian commence par expliquer comment tracer une rétraction Fibonacci sur un mouvement de baisse du prix du Bitcoin. Il montre comment utiliser l'outil pour évaluer le pourcentage de récupération d'un mouvement initial, allant de 23,6% à 100%. Il conseille également de remplacer le niveau par défaut de 76,4% par 78,6%, car ce dernier est plus précis pour les traders expérimentés, et discute des niveaux de 50%, souvent inclus par les programmeurs, mais qui ne sont pas pertinents pour une analyse Fibonacci stricte.

10:05

🎯 Cibler les niveaux de Fibonacci pour des points d'entrée optimaux

Brian détaille l'importance du niveau de 38,2%, qu'il considère comme le premier objectif à surveiller. Si ce niveau est atteint, il peut signaler la continuation ou la fin d'une tendance. Il explique comment ce niveau est un bon indicateur pour éviter de mauvais trades. Brian partage également un enseignement clé de son mentor sur l'importance de ce niveau pour résoudre les mouvements de marché, soulignant que sa résolution permet de définir les prochaines étapes de la tendance.

15:06

📈 Stratégies de trading institutionnel et zones d'entrée optimales

Brian explique comment les institutions, qu'il appelle 'whales', ne vendent pas dans des marchés baissiers ni achètent dans des marchés haussiers. Ils attendent des zones d'entrée optimales pour agir, en particulier entre les niveaux de 61,8% et 78,6% de Fibonacci. Il démontre l'importance de la structure du marché et souligne que les traders institutionnels attendent souvent que le marché remonte dans ces zones avant d'agir. Il encourage les traders à suivre cette logique pour optimiser leurs entrées.

Keywords

💡Fibonacci retracement

Les retracements de Fibonacci sont des outils utilisés en analyse technique pour identifier les niveaux clés de soutien et de résistance en fonction de proportions spécifiques de la séquence de Fibonacci. Dans la vidéo, l'orateur montre comment appliquer cet outil pour analyser les mouvements du marché, en expliquant que ces retracements permettent de prédire jusqu'à quel point un marché pourrait revenir après un mouvement initial.

💡Coinigy

Coinigy est une plateforme de trading de cryptomonnaies qui offre des outils pour l'analyse et l'exécution de trades. L'orateur utilise Coinigy pour démontrer comment tracer les niveaux de Fibonacci et analyser les mouvements de marché pour différentes cryptomonnaies comme Bitcoin et Litecoin.

💡BTC (Bitcoin)

Le Bitcoin est une cryptomonnaie utilisée comme exemple principal tout au long de la vidéo. L'orateur utilise les graphiques BTC pour illustrer comment tracer les niveaux de Fibonacci et comment les traders peuvent interpréter les mouvements de Bitcoin sur différentes échelles de temps en fonction de ces niveaux.

💡Marché haussier

Un marché haussier est une situation dans laquelle les prix augmentent ou devraient augmenter. Dans la vidéo, l'orateur mentionne qu'une résolution haussière du niveau de 38,2 % est un indicateur de tendance ascendante, ce qui suggère que le marché pourrait continuer à monter.

💡Marché baissier

Un marché baissier désigne une tendance à la baisse des prix. L'orateur explique que si le niveau de 38,2 % échoue lors d'une tendance baissière, le marché pourrait continuer à chuter. Ce niveau est souvent un indicateur clé pour savoir si un marché va inverser ou continuer sa baisse.

💡38,2 % Fib

Le niveau de retracement de 38,2 % est un point clé dans l'analyse de Fibonacci. L'orateur appelle cela le 'premier objectif d'arrêt' et explique que ce niveau permet de déterminer si une tendance va se poursuivre ou s'inverser. Dans une tendance baissière, ce niveau est souvent testé pour voir si le marché va rebondir ou continuer à descendre.

💡Institutionnels

Les institutionnels sont des investisseurs professionnels tels que des banques ou des fonds d'investissement qui effectuent des trades importants. Dans la vidéo, l'orateur explique que les institutionnels ne vendent pas dans un marché baissier ni n'achètent dans un marché haussier. Ils attendent des points d'entrée optimaux (Optimal Trade Entry) pour faire leurs mouvements.

💡Optimal Trade Entry (OTE)

L'Optimal Trade Entry est une zone définie par les niveaux de retracement de 61,8 % à 78,6 % sur les outils de Fibonacci. L'orateur explique que c'est dans cette zone que les traders institutionnels sont le plus susceptibles d'entrer en position, car elle offre un bon rapport risque/rendement pour un trade.

💡Structure de marché

La structure de marché fait référence aux configurations techniques qui montrent les points d'achat ou de vente. Dans la vidéo, l'orateur souligne l'importance d'attendre une structure de marché adéquate avant d'entrer dans une transaction, souvent marquée par des sommets ou des creux, comme des 'M' pour les signaux de vente.

💡23,6 % Fib

Le niveau de 23,6 % est un autre point de Fibonacci mentionné par l'orateur, bien qu'il note que ce niveau n'est pas souvent utilisé pour établir des trades. Il explique que ce niveau n'est généralement pas significatif pour les traders, et il recommande même de l'ignorer dans les analyses de retracement.

Highlights

Introduction to Coinigy platform tools and services for trading, focusing on the BTC chart.

Fibonacci retracements are powerful tools used by professional traders, but new traders often lack a formal introduction to them.

Loading the Coinigy platform and selecting different exchanges for cryptocurrency analysis (e.g., BTC on Bitfinex).

Demonstration on how to use the Fibonacci retracement tool on the Coinigy platform to measure market moves.

Explanation of different Fibonacci levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%) and how they represent retracements of a prior move.

Correction: The 76.4% retracement level is not relevant in trading, should be replaced with 78.6% based on trader standards.

50% level, while commonly used in technical analysis, is not a true Fibonacci level but rather a Gann level.

Emphasis on the 38.2% Fibonacci level as the first significant target, where traders should wait for market confirmation.

Introduction to the concept of the 'optimal trade entry zone' (OTE) between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels.

Discussion of institutional trading strategies and how institutions avoid buying up moves or selling down markets.

How institutions look to short markets within the optimal trade entry zone, rather than chasing price.

Explanation of how Fibonacci retracements align with market structure, particularly horizontal support and resistance levels.

Guidance on using Fibonacci retracements to determine if a market is trending or ranging, helping traders avoid bad trades.

Overview of range trading and how to use Fibonacci levels to establish a two-to-one reward-to-risk ratio.

Teaser for future tutorials on Fibonacci extensions and how to use them to target profit levels beyond the original move.

Transcripts

hello everyone welcome back to the

rational investor dot SEOs

ongoing tutorial series here with the

good people at coinage II introducing

you to some of their site tools and

services they have to offer

basically my name is Brian Beamish

people call me coach Brian I run a

website called the rational mr. CEO and

as you probably watch some of these

tutorials in the past I'm fairly

comfortable and I really like working

with the coinage platform and so I'm

here just demonstrating how we use some

of this stuff so you know I've loaded

the coinage esight going to G com I'm

going to click my sign in I've already

done this so when you do sign in and you

load up your charts probably going to

look something along these lines so this

is basically a default setting you'll

notice here in the symbol box I've just

gone in here and I've typed BTC and you

can see on the coin AG platform they

give you access to a number of different

exchanges so we're here on bit Finex

and I have just selected BTC as you can

see if you wanted to say look at

litecoin well there's like quite nice

and simple right so we're just going to

click on BTC and today we're going to

concentrate on the fib tool because we

don't really talk too much a little bit

different type of analysis here in that

Fibonacci retracements are very powerful

and very handy for professional traders

to use but a lot of new people to

trading really don't get sort of a

formal introduction to them by all means

if you are interested you can always pop

on over to our site the rational

investor calm and I have a bunch of free

tutorials here so if you do want to do

some more reading on your own I put

together a bunch of videos here on how

to use fibs as well

my school program we spend a couple

weeks working on fibs but just to give

you the general gist of what's going on

here and how we're going to use this

tool on trading excuse me on on our

trades day to day basis on coinage II

what I've done like I said we load a

Bitcoin chart here this is one hour I

mean we can it really doesn't matter

what time frame you use the important

thing here is just getting their levels

correctly and how you've drawn them so

for the purposes of to today today let's

try that again the for the purposes of

today's tutorial we're going to minimize

the volume we don't really need to see

that right now we're gonna go like we

said on our drawing tools we're gonna

select the third selection which you see

is a whole bunch of horizontal lines if

you actually go into this you see that

it's right down here it says FIB

retracement

I do in my school programs concentrate

on a lot of these different tools so but

my advice to you is don't get too deep

into these because a lot of these

actually need very special

considerations when you're using them

we'll just concentrate on fibs today and

if there is demand we can always do

little tutorials on some of these other

tools as well so we're going to click on

fibrin trace mint you see in the box

that just shows you the little

horizontal lines and for the purposes of

this today's tutorial here we're going

to measure a retracement of this primary

move down here so we're going to start

up at the top and we're just going to

simply drag our fib tool all the way

down so that the lowest level right is

off these lows so what should end up

happening here right and this is an

important part so try and understand

this in if you have to play the video

back a couple times that's perfectly

alright by me you'll notice that when

I've drawn the tool down here the

numbers that you see here get successful

as successively higher

as we go back and what this study is

doing is we've drawn this primary move

and the study is asking if the market

rallies back how much of this original

move is the market going to take back so

you can see as the market bounced back

to here that was twenty three point six

percent of this original move market

rallies back to this level right here

that's thirty eight point two percent of

the move 50 percent sixty one point

eight percent seventy six point four and

of course if the market made it all the

way back right up top here that would be

a hundred percent of the move so a

couple things that I would mention about

the fib tool I believe that a lot of

these charting programs were written by

programmers and not necessarily traders

I've been actively a broker and a

proprietary trader as well as a private

investor for myself for more than

twenty-five years I can tell you with

full confidence that this number 76 4 is

not relevant in the trading community my

recommendation to you is to go in ah you

saw that I left click on the fib tool

alright that highlighted it then I right

click and I check format my advice to

you is to go in and literally change

this 78 points seventy six point four to

78 six point seven eight six that's the

appropriate fib level why the computer

programmers have decided on seventy six

point four I believe really the answer

is more out of convenience because

seventy six point four is an icy easy

inverse relationship to twenty three

point six not as a level that traders

are in true

to them all right now for the purposes

of my school and when I'm trading I'm

also not really that jazzed by the 23.6

quite often it doesn't set up a trade

level so I often just take that out next

we need to understand that again if we

think about this as these tools are

written by computer programmers and not

traders themselves we see that this 50%

level here is on this study by default

50% is not a Fibonacci level no ifs ands

or buts it is simply not a Fibonacci

level for those that are interested in

understanding the relevance of the 50%

rule that is a Gann level W began mr.

Dilbert gone I loved his middle name

anyway the point here is really if we

were going to be doing a textbook fib

study we really shouldn't have this 50%

level on here so let's get rid of it all

right now this is the way that I use

fibs

is I learned a long time ago and there's

a gentleman out of New York is very

popular floor trader and he runs a

service called IDT intuitive development

for traders and in my class if any of my

students are watching this video they

probably hear it a you know at nauseam

for me but basically the 38.2 fib is

what I like to call the first stop

target and mr. Bursch at mr. IDT he

actually teaches that we really

shouldn't even think about a trade until

this 38.2 level is quote-unquote

resolved

if this is a down move then quite often

in a downtrend and it's going to

continue lower often the 38 will be

tested market structure will come in it

will fail and continue on lower if

however this is some sort of serious

bottom right the market will test 38.2

back off and then move up through it so

you know hopefully you can take just

from today's video if you can apply 38.2

this will keep you out of a lot of

trouble and it will keep you out of a

lot of trading situations and as you can

clearly see mr. Bursch it was proven

right in that 38.2 actually represented

a very significant swing level here

right and now that the market has

resolved bullish Lee we can actually

start looking for higher timeframe

setups and higher fib level setups all

right so first big thing and I would

recommend you do this and this happens a

lot it doesn't matter what altcoin we're

looking at doesn't matter if it's big

coin doesn't matter if it's gold if it

stocks if it's bonds if it's currencies

38.2 our first stop target is often an

excellent barometer to tell us whether

this is a trending market and it's going

to continue lower or whether it's a

ranging market and we're going to come

up back up and test the highs

conversely well not conversely if 38.2

is resolved bullish ly in this case

right where are we most likely to find

the market to go to next and this is

where we come up with the concept of the

optimal trade entry zone all right now

we need to understand and I'll try and

be as brief as I can through this video

institutions are in crypto currency land

they would call them whales they do not

by up markets they're not gonna buy up

here all right

in fact I teach in my school that if you

worked on an institutional order desk or

like a bank room desk a trading desk and

you bought a big up move like this you

could get fired you literally lose your

job I mean as you can see this is

horrible trade location and oh boy the

firm would lost a ton of money

similarly institutions or whales do not

sell down markets right you know exact

same thing if you were working on an

institutional order desk and you got

sucked into the FOMO or fear of missing

out and you were panicking like all the

noobs right then in trading land and you

were dumping and saying bitcoins going

to zero you would have had your lunch

handed to you right and you probably

would have also lost your job remember

the public buys at the top and they sell

at the bottom institutions of the smart

money always make money they sell at the

top and buy back at the bottom right so

if we understand that basic principle

then our little fib tool becomes really

powerful because it basically highlights

right if you can understand that this is

nothing more than a trading range now

the OTE or optimal trade entry simply

breaks the trading range down and says

that if an institution was going to

short and remember if they're going to

short they're going to short up markets

then they are probably going to generate

some sort of rally into this zone and

what you also notice is I don't know

whether we've done it on previous

tutorials for you but I'm a really big

fan of the concept of market structure

we're struck

sure basically tells us where to buy and

sell assets right we have a bearish

market structure here lots of em's right

that are spitting up lots of sell

signals hopefully what you'll notice is

that the fib study suggests that the

optimal trade entry or where if

institutions are going to short where

they're most likely going to short is

the sixty one point eight to seventy

eight point six fibs right what a

coincidence that also happens to line up

off of a previous morph market structure

failure level understanding that

institutions do not sell down markets

and institutions see this market

structure and they want to be short from

here they will not panic and sell down

here they will just simply wait nice and

patiently for the market to work its way

back up into this zone to hit it again

as well the good part about this range

strategy in the concept of the optimal

trade entry zone is hopefully you can

see that if if you just simply approach

the market that I am going to consider

this a range right and if I am going to

simply say that I'm going to try and

short in this optimal trade entry zone

I'm going to risk to a break of the

highs of the range and my target is

ultimately going to be a test to the low

end of the range then what you see is by

definition we have a trade setup that

generates more than a two - excuse me

two to one reward over potential risk we

also need to understand that markets

range 80% of the time and they only

trend 20% of the time so technically

speaking if you took this short here in

the OTE range setup area by definition

you're letting the market you know what

it normally does work in your favor

right 80% of the time the markets going

to come up against these eyes fail and

head back down alright alright so

hopefully what I've done here and

actually I went a little bit overboard

but in this video hopefully what I've

done is I have shown you how to draw a

fib study I've also demonstrated the

levels Fibonacci Y's

that I think are most relevant we've

talked a little bit about mister

brochettes 38.2 what I like to call the

first stop target and its relevance and

then we've talked next about the concept

of the optimal trade entry zone and how

these fit numbers often line up with

previous horizontal support and

resistance and market structure failure

levels we finished off this tutorial

today with just a simple concept of the

range trader in that they'd like to find

the optimal trade entry zone hunt for

some sort of failure you know in my

previous videos we talked a little bit

about how I like to wait for three

independent reasons to take a trade well

if the market rallied into the OTE zone

I would consider that one reason then

maybe we get a momentum fail like you've

seen up my previous tutorials or maybe

we get a candlestick failure something

along those lines one two three away we

go all right um alright so I think I

basically does it for today's video

that's probably about 10-15 minutes

hopefully you have a pretty good

understanding of how I use the fib study

I think this is an excellent case

scenario here and in future studies will

talk about extension levels and what

levels I like to hunt for for extensions

and how you can use those so everybody

have yourself a great day I hope you

enjoyed this tutorial all the best and

we'll talk to you guys real soon

for him

Oh