The Future of Humanity - with Yuval Noah Harari

Summary

The speaker discusses the potential impact of artificial intelligence on society, emphasizing that it's not about prophesying the future but exploring possibilities. AI could become the dominant life form, possibly spreading beyond Earth. The speaker highlights AI's potential to replace human jobs, using self-driving cars and AI doctors as examples. They stress the need to prepare for a future where humans may become economically and politically powerless, as their jobs are automated away.

Takeaways

• 📚 The book is not about prophecies but explores different possibilities for the future, emphasizing human agency in shaping these outcomes.
• 🧠 The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could potentially lead to AI becoming the dominant life form on Earth and beyond, with significant implications for humanity.
• 🔬 A major biological revolution is underway, with life evolving from organic to inorganic forms, potentially allowing it to spread throughout the universe.
• 🚀 AI and technology are on the verge of transforming life and society, moving from natural selection to intelligent design and from Earth to the cosmos.
• 💼 The impact of AI on the job market could be profound, with the potential to create a 'useless class' of people who are unemployable due to AI outperforming humans in most tasks.
• 🚗 AI is expected to replace human drivers in vehicles, leading to safer, more efficient transportation and the disappearance of millions of driving-related jobs.
• 🩺 AI doctors like IBM's Watson have the potential to outperform human doctors in diagnosing diseases and providing treatment, possibly replacing a significant portion of the medical profession.
• 🤖 AI's ability to provide emotional support challenges the belief that only humans can understand and respond to emotions, as emotions are biochemical phenomena that AI can analyze.
• 🌐 The rapid pace of AI advancement raises concerns about job displacement and the need for humans to reinvent themselves and learn new skills throughout their lifetime.
• 🏫 There is uncertainty about what skills and knowledge children should be taught today to prepare for a future job market that is likely to be vastly different from today's.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the book being presented?

The book is not about prophecies but explores different possibilities for the future, particularly focusing on the rise of artificial intelligence and its potential to become the dominant life-form on Earth.

Why is the author critical of books that prophesy about the future?

The author believes writing about prophecies is sterile because it suggests a future that cannot be changed, whereas discussing possibilities allows for agency and the potential to prevent undesirable outcomes.

How does the author view the current revolution in the context of biological history?

The author sees the current revolution as the most important in biological history since the beginning of life on Earth, as it may lead to the creation of inorganic life forms and the expansion of life beyond Earth.

What is the significance of the shift from organic to inorganic life forms?

This shift could allow life to break free from the constraints of organic biochemistry and adapt more easily to environments outside of Earth, potentially enabling the spread of life throughout the universe.

What are the implications of AI for the job market and human relevance in the future?

AI could push humans out of the job market, creating a 'useless class' of people who have no economic usefulness because AI outperforms them in almost all tasks.

How does the author illustrate the potential of AI in replacing human drivers?

The author uses the example of self-driving cars, which could significantly reduce the 1.3 million annual deaths from car accidents caused by human error, and could drive more efficiently, cheaply, and safely than humans.

What is the role of a single network in AI-driven vehicles?

A single network connecting all AI-driven vehicles could prevent collisions by centrally coordinating their movements, making the transportation system far safer and more efficient.

How does the author compare AI doctors like IBM's Watson to human doctors?

AI doctors have the advantage of being available 24/7, having access to unlimited medical data, and being able to monitor patients' health continuously through biometric sensors.

In what ways might AI provide better emotional support than human doctors?

AI can diagnose emotional conditions by analyzing facial expressions, tone of voice, and biometric data from within the body, potentially providing more accurate emotional support than human doctors.

What is the potential issue with the rapid pace of AI advancement for older workers?

Older workers may struggle to reinvent themselves as new jobs emerge, as it becomes increasingly difficult to learn new skills and adapt to new job markets beyond a certain age.

What social class does the author foresee emerging in the 21st century due to AI?

The author foresees the rise of a 'useless class' of people who are economically useless and potentially politically powerless due to the dominance of AI in the job market.

Outlines

00:00

🌌 Introduction to the Book and the Rise of AI

The speaker begins by emphasizing that the book they are presenting is not a prophecy about the future but rather an exploration of different possibilities. The author highlights the importance of understanding that we have agency over the future and can influence which possibilities come to fruition. The main focus of the discussion is the rise of artificial intelligence and its potential to become the dominant life form on Earth and beyond. The speaker suggests that we are on the cusp of a significant shift in biology, moving from organic to inorganic life forms, which could allow life to spread throughout the universe. The speaker also raises concerns about the impact of AI on the job market and the economic power of ordinary humans, questioning what skills future generations need to learn to remain relevant.

05:04

🚗 AI and the Future of Employment

The speaker discusses the potential for AI to replace humans in the job market within the next few decades, drawing parallels to the industrial revolution of the 19th century. They predict the emergence of a 'useless class' of people who will be unable to compete with AI in almost all tasks. Using the example of self-driving cars, the speaker explains how AI could outperform humans in driving, leading to safer and more efficient transportation. They also suggest that AI could connect all vehicles in a network, further reducing accidents. The speaker warns that this advancement could lead to the disappearance of millions of jobs, not just in driving but in many other professions as well.

10:06

👨‍⚕️ The Future of Medicine with AI Doctors

The speaker shares a personal anecdote about needing medical attention and the inconvenience of accessing a doctor. They compare the limited time and knowledge of human doctors to the potential of AI doctors like IBM's Watson, which could be available 24/7, have access to a vast amount of medical data, and monitor patients' health continuously. The speaker argues that AI doctors could diagnose and treat patients more effectively than human doctors, despite concerns that AI might lack the emotional support that humans provide. They explain that emotions are biochemical phenomena that AI could potentially understand and respond to better than humans, given access to biometric data.

15:10

🧠 AI's Superiority in Data Processing and Emotional Support

The speaker continues the discussion on AI in medicine, emphasizing Watson's ability to process vast amounts of data about diseases and medical research, which surpasses human capabilities. They address the concern that AI might not provide emotional support by explaining that emotions are biochemical phenomena that AI can potentially diagnose and respond to, using biometric data from within the body. The speaker suggests that AI could provide more accurate emotional support than human doctors, who rely on external cues.

20:11

🌐 AI Doctors and the Global Shortage of Human Doctors

The speaker points out the global shortage of doctors and how AI could solve this problem by creating an infinite number of AI doctors that are available everywhere and all the time. They compare the time and resources required to train a human doctor to the potential one-time investment needed to develop AI doctors. The speaker acknowledges technical and legal challenges but emphasizes the immense potential of AI in healthcare. They also discuss the historical shift from agriculture and industry to service jobs and the uncertainty of what new jobs will emerge as AI replaces humans in mental and cognitive tasks.

25:12

📚 Preparing for an Unknown Future Job Market

The speaker reflects on the uncertainty of the future job market and the difficulty of predicting what skills will be needed. They suggest that much of what children learn today might become irrelevant, and there is no consensus on what should be taught instead. The speaker highlights the potential creation of a 'useless class' of people who are economically and politically powerless due to the loss of their jobs to AI. They conclude by emphasizing that this is not a prophecy and that there is still agency to influence the future, encouraging action to prevent undesirable outcomes.

Keywords

💡Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. In the video, AI is discussed as a driving force behind a potential revolution in biology and society, possibly leading to AI becoming the dominant life form on Earth. The script mentions AI's potential to outperform humans in tasks, thereby reshaping the job market and societal structures.

💡Futurology

Futurology is the study of predictions about the future and how they can be influenced. The speaker clarifies that the book is not a work of futurology, but rather an exploration of different possible futures that might arise from the rise of AI. It emphasizes human agency in shaping these futures, contrasting with the determinism often associated with futurology.

💡Agency

Agency, in this context, refers to the capacity of individuals to act independently and make free choices. The speaker discusses how humans still have agency over the development and application of AI, implying that we can influence which potential futures come to pass and are not merely passive observers of technological change.

💡Biology

Biology is the scientific study of life and living organisms. The script frames the current technological shift as not just significant for human history but also for the broader history of life on Earth. It suggests that AI could lead to a new form of life that transcends the organic, representing a major shift in the biological narrative of our planet.

💡Intelligent Design

Intelligent design, as used in the script, refers to the intentional guidance of evolution by human intelligence, rather than natural selection. It is presented as a potential replacement for the natural evolutionary process, with humans using AI to direct the future of life forms.

💡Inorganic Life Forms

Inorganic life forms would be life that does not rely on organic compounds or biochemical processes. The script suggests that AI could enable the creation of the first inorganic life, marking a significant departure from the four-billion-year history of organic life on Earth.

💡Job Market

The job market refers to the system of supply and demand for labor in an economy. The video discusses the potential for AI to disrupt the job market by automating jobs across various professions, leading to concerns about widespread unemployment and the need to rethink education and job training.

💡Economic Uselessness

Economic usefulness refers to an individual's or group's contribution to the economy. The script posits a future where AI could render a large portion of the human population economically useless, as they are unable to compete with AI in the job market. This concept is central to the discussion of societal shifts and the potential emergence of a 'useless class'.

💡Cognitive Abilities

Cognitive abilities encompass mental processes such as thinking, understanding, learning, and remembering. The script highlights that as machines have surpassed humans in physical abilities, the next frontier is mental and cognitive abilities, where AI is beginning to compete with humans, potentially leading to significant job displacement.

💡Reinvention

Reinvention in the context of the video refers to the need for individuals to adapt to changing economic conditions by learning new skills and possibly changing careers. The rapid pace of AI development could require people to reinvent themselves multiple times throughout their lives, presenting a significant challenge.

💡Political Power

Political power is the ability to influence decisions within a government or organization. The script suggests that as AI consolidates economic power, it may also lead to a concentration of political power in the hands of a few, potentially undermining the political power of the masses.

Highlights

The book is not about prophecies but about mapping different possibilities for the future.

We still have agency over the future and can influence which possibilities are realized.

The rise of artificial intelligence could lead to it becoming the dominant life-form on Earth.

AI has the potential to become the first inorganic life form after four billion years of organic evolution.

AI could enable life to spread beyond Earth for the first time in history.

The transition from organic to inorganic life forms could have significant implications for society and the economy.

Artificial intelligence may push humans out of the job market within the next few decades.

AI could create a new class of people who are economically useless because machines outperform them.

Self-driving cars may replace human drivers due to their superior safety and efficiency.

AI doctors like IBM's Watson have the potential to outperform human doctors in diagnosing diseases.

Watson can provide constant medical monitoring and has access to vast amounts of medical data.

AI may also be able to provide emotional support by analyzing biochemical signals from the body.

The creation of AI doctors could solve the global shortage of medical professionals.

Machines are starting to compete with humans in mental and cognitive abilities.

The rapid pace of AI development may require humans to reinvent themselves multiple times during their lifetime.

It is uncertain what new jobs will emerge as AI replaces existing ones.

The 21st century may see the rise of a 'useless class' of people who are economically and politically powerless.

The shift to AI could centralize economic and political power in the hands of a few individuals.

The future is not set in stone, and we can take action to influence the development of AI and its impact on society.

Transcripts

so thank you [very] much for this introduction and especially for

Presenting the book not as a book of futurology

Because um for me something very important to make everybody

Understand if they're going to go and read this book

But it's definitely not a book of prophecies about the future. It's rather tries to map

Different possibilities that might or might not be realized. We still have some agency regarding that

Writing a book of prophecies. I think is an is a sterile exercise if it becomes through or doesn't doesn't matter

[I] mean, you can't do anything about it. It's much more interesting

It's much more vital to write about different possibilities

And if you don't like some of these possibilities, then do something about it

- try to prevent the worst possibilities from being realised and

What I want to discuss [today] is one particularly important

possibilities the possibility that we are now facing which is the rise of

artificial intelligence and [the]

potential that artificial intelligence will become the dominant life-form on Earth and

even Beyond the Earth and what would that mean for Homo Sapiens and

In order to understand this we need

To maybe go a step backward and take the really long view not just of history

But actually of biology not just of the history of man

But really of the history of life because what's happening?

Now is maybe not just the most important revolution in Human history, but the most important revolution in biology

since the beginning of life at least on Earth

For the last [four] billion years of Earth, - sorry of life

Nothing much changed about the fundamental laws of life all life forms for four billion years evolved by natural

selection and all life-forms

Were restricted to the organic realm

It doesn't matter if you're an amoeba or a giraffe or a tomato or a homo sapiens

You're made of organic compounds [and] your subjects -you're subject to

organic biochemistry

This is now changing we are on the verge

not only of replacing natural selection with intelligent design

not the intelligent design of some God our intelligent design [as] the

[principle] motor of the evolution of life we are also on the verge of

Allowing life [to] break out for the first time from the organic realm into the Inorganic and

creating the first inorganic life forms after [four] billion years of evolution which also implies

that life will for the first time have a serious chance of breaking out of [Planet] Earth and

beginning to spread in the rest of the Galaxy in the rest of the universe

Organic Life Have been adapted to the very unique conditions of this planet for [four] billion years

So despite what you see on star [Trek]. Which is just now celebrating 50 years

It's extremely difficult to sustain organic life in outer space on other planets

Which is why it's very unlikely that organic life will be able to spread and to flourish

Outside Earth, but once you switch from organic to Inorganic it becomes much easier

So we are really on the verge of these two intertwined

revolution moving from the organic to the Inorganic and moving from Planet Earth

Actually to the rest of the universe to the rest of the Galaxy

but

Coming back from the level of the Galaxy to the level of Day-To-day politics. What is- what will this [mean] for

Ordinary human beings, for society, for the job market, [for] the political system

I don't have time to cover all the different scenarios and possibilities. I want to focus on one

important issue, which is what it will do to the job market and what it will do to the economic [ah]

importance and power of Ordinary Humans in the next few decades because this is a very practical question [ah]

kids in the uk have just started the school the school year this week and

The question is what do they need to [learn] so that they will still be relevant?

They will still have a job when they are thirty or forty this is it's this kind of question which I think

Brings down the idea of Artificial intelligence

From the cloud and the Galaxy to the level of Society and economics and politics

[and] one of the big dangers which more and more experts are talking about is that in the next few decades

[not] in thousands of years, but within the lifetime of many of the people here in the room

Artificial [intelligence] will push humans out of [the] job market and in the same way

that the industrial revolution of the 19th century

Created [a] new massive class the Urban working class the proletariat

So in the 21st century a new industrial revolution

Will create a new massive class the useless class

People who have no economic usefulness because Ai artificial intelligence

Outperforms them in almost all tasks and old jobs people who are not just unemployed

They are unemployable there is no other with no jobs. No jobs to give these people

so to start with a simple example

[Ten] years ago. It was relatively accepted wisdom that our

Computers and artificial intelligence will never be able to drive cars and vehicles

Better than humans maybe in a laboratory under sterile conditions a computer could drive a car

But not in real-life situations [in] a real city like London

Today more and more experts are coming to the opposite

Conclusion to the opposite view but it's only a question of time and not a very long time

maybe in 10 20 30 years

humans will not drive vehicles at all because Ai will be so much better at

Driving taxis and buses and trucks and so Forth than human beings

They will not only drive it more efficiently and more [cheaply] with less pollution

But most importantly a I will drive far more safely than homo Sapiens the Newman drivers

today in the World every Year

1.3 million people die each year from car accidents

Around the world this is about twice as many death as the death caused by war

Crime and Terrorism put together and most of these

1.3 million people are killed as a result of human mistakes of human errors or negligence. It's cases like

people falling asleep while driving

Cases like people drinking alcohol

And then driving people ignoring traffic lights people ignoring the stop sign people driving too fast

Inside [a] city things like that

This is the major reason for these more than 1 million deaths every year if you replace

Humans by Ai

most of these errors will disappear will be prevented and

self-driving car a computer will never drink alcohol and then drive a

Self-driving car will never fall asleep while driving if you program it

Correctly or or if this is how you program it. It will never Disobey the traffic laws

It will always stop at a stop sign

it will always stop at a red sign even more importantly from the Viewpoint of

safety um

Today each car is an individual unit when two cars are approaching an intersection

Each car sometimes tries to signal its intention the driver is trying to signal his or her

Intentions, but the two cars are really independent entities. Which is why sometimes they collide?

however if

you uhh

prevent humans from driving and all the vehicles on the Road I'll

sell our autonomous and they are driven by computers by Ai

Then the logical and possible thing to do is to connect all of them one to the others, so there are no longer

independent

vehicles on the Road

But all vehicles are connected to a single network to a single Master algorithm

Which is far less likely to allow two of its puppets to collide

[so] from this perspective, it's quite likely. It's not, it's not a profit

It's not certain all kinds of things may prevent it from happening

But there is a good chance that in say 10 20 30 years

Humans all Human drivers, or most human drivers will be replaced by AI and

Which we shall have enormous good consequences, but which also means that millions of jobs will disappear

[the] same thing may happen with many many other professions. I'll just I don't have a lot of time, so I'll give [just] one example

What might happen to doctors?

most doctors

what they do most of the time is to try to

diagnose a my disease and then offer the best treatment possible

Which is something I'm very aware of right now because I'm a bit under the weather

I drove to Manchester yesterday and got a cold on the way

I think it's a cold. I'm not sure I feel a bit dizzy. I feel a bit something in the throat

[I] think [it's] a cold. [I] can't go and ask my doctor because my doctor is back in Israel

And even if I could even even if I was right now in Israel

It's not so simple to go to the doctor. It takes time. I need to make an appointment

She's not always available and even if I make an [appointment] for tomorrow morning

So I have to leave my work and drive to the clinic

I then wait [in] the reception room for 10 minutes or 20 minutes or 30 [minutes]

And then finally I get [to] see the doctor, and I don't know how it is with the NHS in the uk

But in israel my insurance pays for very short visits. Maybe five or [ten] minutes

That's all that my doctor usually has for me

during these five or ten minutes when she tries to

Diagnose my disease so she would ask me three four questions about how I'm feeling. [do] you have [a] headache?

Do you feel dizzy something like that?

She may do one or two simple physical tests. She may ask me to say ahh and look into my throat

She may take out a stethoscope and listen to my lungs or my heart. She may measure my heartbeat or my blood pressure

She also knows something about my medical history because she's my personal physician, but obviously she can't remember

Every illness I ever had and every blood test and DNA scan I are ever made she may look it up on the computer

[but] again, she doesn't have much time so

She takes these few bits of Data

About my present and past medical condition and now in order to diagnose my disease

She needs to compare that with all the different diseases in the world could be cold could be

Influenza could be uhh breast cancer all kinds of things that

might have these symptoms and

obviously even the best doctor in the world

she can't really be familiar with all the different medical conditions and all the different diseases in the world and

even if

And she obviously also she can't be updated every day about all the latest medical

Researchers and articles and tests and drugs and so forth [so] both types of data

What she knows about me?

And what she knows about all the diseases and medical conditions in the world both are very limited in addition

My doctor is sometimes

Sick herself, she is sometimes irritated, she is sometimes hungry

She is sometimes tired so she isn't always at her peak of her performance when she comes to diagnose my disease

now compare that to

AI doctors artificial intelligence doctors that are already being developed as we speak the most famous

Example, but not the only example is IBM's Watson

Watson has immense advantages

compared to my

Flesh-And-blood physician first of all Watson] can be everywhere all [the] [time] on my smartphone?

Even if I go to give the talk here in London, [I] can take my personal physician with me on the smartphone

It accompanies me 24 hours a day, 365 days a year

It has all the time in the world for me

If I want I can sit [on] my living room

sofa and [just] answer questions about my health for hours and hours on end and do all kinds of tests

in fact Watson doesn't need to wait until

I ask until I come towards and I say hey something is wrong

What's wrong with me? Watson will be able to monitor my medical condition [all] the [time] using

biometric sensors on my body and inside my body

So when something just starts it will know about it much month before

I know that something is wrong, and it can try to do something about it to start a treatment even without my [mind] knowing it

In addition Watson has no limit at all or almost no

Limitations on the amount of Data it can access and process

Watson will be able instantly to know my entire medical history

Every illness I ever had every blood test or every DNA test

I ever did in addition, Watson will be able to [access]

Such data about my parents and siblings and neighbors and friends and then strangers

the other side of the equation

What about all the diseases in the world here [too] Watson has immense advantages [over] a flesh-and-blood doctors

Watson will be able to a large extent to be familiar with

All the different diseases in the world and with all the newest, latest

medical research about disease, about drugs, about these treatments, that treatment

so from this perspective

It's very likely that Watson will be able to diagnose disease and to offer treatment

Far far better than any human [doctor]

Now when people hear this they very often say okay?

Maybe Watson will be better in diagnosing disease. But there is one thing one other thing that we usually

Hope human doctors will do and that Watson will not be able to do and this is offer

emotional support. A

human [doctor] is not some machine some cold [machine]

that just diagnoses this disease and says take this pill, a good doctor is also very attentive to my emotional condition and

it not just treats my

physical difficulties it also gives me the proper emotional support that in many cases is a vital part of

of

confronting any kind of disease or medical condition

however

This criticism fails to [to] know to notice that emotions at least according to Modern science,

Emotions are not some

spiritual thing that God gave humans in order to appreciate poetry

emotions are a

biochemical

Phenomenon that not only homo Sapiens serve all mammals all birds and many many other animals have emotions

[they're] a biochemical phenomena in this sense emotions are like disease. [they] are both

biochemical phenomena

And therefore it is extremely [likely] that Watson will be able to diagnose my emotional condition

Just as it diagnoses my illnesses and my medical problems

if I go to my become a human doctor

How does my human doctor know my emotional condition she relies on two kinds of signals?

External signals that I'm giving she relies basic

On visual sing signals like my facial expression or my body movement my body language and she relies on audio our

signals audio cues she listens to what I say

Not just the contents, but even more importantly the tone [of] voice

[so] [if] I sit in her office, she looks at my [face] she listens to my [words]

And this is how she knows if I'm angry if I'm fearful or whatever

What [son] will be able to do all that?

Computers are already

outperforming humans in A

Diagnosing correctly analyzing correctly facial expressions and tone of voice

in order to recognize emotions

But much more importantly an AI like Watson will have access

To another and even better source of data about my emotions data coming from within my body

When my [doctor] looked at a man I sit in her office, and she looks at me

She sees my face, but she can't see my brain and she can't see my heart and she can't see what's happening inside me

Watson will be able to access

biometric Data coming from the brain coming from the heart coming from the bloodstream and therefore is likely to be able to

diagnose my emotional condition far far better than any human [doctor]

Now ah there are still problems some technical problems and also legal problems that prevent Watson and things like Watson

from replacing most doctors tomorrow morning - May take five years Ten Years [twenty] [years]

But what we need to realize that?

We need to solve these technical problems

Just once just once [in]

the case of Human doctors

or Flesh-And-blood doctors

In order to get to get a doctor

You need to take a person and then you need ten years at least ten years

of going to medical school and doing all kinds of studying and

Experimenting and experiencing in order after ten years and a huge investment in time and money and energy

At the end of this process you get one doctor if you want another doctor you have to start all over again

[and] invest all this time all this energy all this money again. Which is why in many?

Countries around the world there is an acute shortage of doctors

With Watson with an AI doctor you just have to do it once

Even [if] it costs a hundred billion dollars to solve the technical

Problems that still prevent Watson from replacing my human doctor if you invest

These hundred billion dollars and solve the problems what you get is not one doctor

You get an infinite number of doctors?

Available everywhere all the time for everybody even somebody in the middle of the jungle can have a personal physician

Only Smartphone or her smartphone which provides far better?

medical care than almost any doctor alive today

So the Potential is really is really immense

Which is why again more and more experts believe that not all doctors?

But many doctors maybe 50 60 80 [%] of doctors will be replaced by AI are

within 10 20 30 years and

The same thing may happen to many other professions lawyers, teachers

Insurance agents and so forth um

When people hear about this possibility again one of the most common objections is to say we've heard it before

We've heard it before this fear of machines replacing humans

it's not, it's not new [A]

Lot of people in the 19th and 20th century were afraid that as machines replace humans in

agriculture

and then in industry you'll have this massive unemployment and massive crisis with all the useless people and

It didn't happen because as new jobs disappeared,

Sorry as old jobs disappeared new jobs appeared to replace them

So we don't have a crisis today of mass unemployment

What happened? Is that most people [in] advanced societies stopped working in

agricultural industry today in a country like the uk or the USA about

[2%] of the Workforce are employed in agriculture

Compared to more than 90 percent before the industrial revolution

[maybe] 15 percent 20 percent still work in industry physical jobs, the vast majority are working in

services

But the problem is we cannot be sure that the same thing will happen again with this new revolution

Because humans have basically two kinds of abilities

They have physical abilities and they have mental and cognitive abilities

What happened in the 90s and 20th century is [that] machines?

competed and

Outperformed humans in Physical abilities so humans mostly moved to working in jobs that require

mental and cognitive abilities like the services sector

now machines are starting to compete with us and

outperform us also in mental and cognitive abilities

And we just don't know

about any third kind of ability

[that] humans may have and that everybody could move to work in that [field] we just not know about it

Another problem is that even if new jobs appear

The pace of change is so quick that

Humans will have to reinvent themselves again and again during their lifetime which is something [that] is very very difficult

Beyond a certain age

when you are 15 of your 20 the main thing you do in life is basically to

Invent yourself or to reinvent yourself and even then

It's not very easy, but when you're 40 or 50

It's much much more difficult and let's say that in 20 years

There are no jobs for taxi drivers and doctors and insurance agents, and they have to reinvent themselves

as let's say designers of virtual worlds

Now this is something very difficult for [a] 50 year old taxi driver or a 50 year old insurance agent to

Invent himself or herself again as a completely new [kind] of person now

I am the creator of virtual worlds. How does a virtual world

created by a 50 year old insurance agent look like um

it's it's a very difficult question and

It goes back to what I started with which is what to teach children

Today at school and the answer is that nobody has a clue

[I] mean children who today start the first with this first week of school first grade

Nobody knows what the job [market] would be like when these kids are 30 or 40

It's very likely that almost everything they learn at school will be completely irrelevant

But what to teach them instead nobody knows because we just don't know what kind of job market

we'll have in 2050 and what kind of skills uhh people will need in these kinds of

so Far unknown jobs

so um

As I said just as the 19th century created

this new massive class the Urban working class and

much of the political and social history of the 90s and 20th century

Revolved around this new class the working class

similarly in the 21st century we may see the creation the rise of a [new] massive class the useless class and

much [of] the social and political and economic history of the 21st century will revolve around that class and

around the question what to do with billions and billions of

economically useless people and

Because they are economically useless the danger is also that they will be politically powerless because usually

Economic usefulness goes hand in [hand] with political with political power and as humans lose

Their economic usefulness they may also lose their political power [and] to give just one simple example

when you have all these millions of taxi drivers and truck drivers and bus drivers each of them commands a small share [of] the

Transportation market and this gives them not only a certain amount of

Economic wealth it goes who gives them a certain amount [of] political power they can unionise and if the government

Pursues a policy which all these taxi drivers or truck drivers don't like they can go and strike

So they have also some political power now if you replace all

these drivers with driverless cars, which are basically

managed by a single algorithm, which is owned by a single corporation which is owned by a handful of billionaires

So all the economic and [political] power that was previously shared

between millions of drivers is now being monopolised by maybe five or ten

individuals

As I said in the beginning, this is not a prophecy

Nobody really knows how the job market, how the economy, how the political system would look like in

2050 if you don't like this particular possibility you can still do something about it. Thank you