The Fifth Industrial Revolution is Happening - Is it Time to Reshape Our Future? | Summit 2018
Summary
TLDRThe speaker argues that we are at a pivotal moment in history where smart green growth is essential for both environmental and social sustainability. Drawing from historical examples of technological revolutions, the speaker highlights that we are midway through the current digital revolution, with the opportunity to shape the future. The speech emphasizes the importance of new lifestyles, government action, and the need for socially equitable, green innovations that can lead to a global golden age. The key message is that change is possible but requires collective effort from business, government, and society.
Takeaways
- 🌍 We are living in challenging times, but these challenges offer a unique opportunity to make real changes.
- 📈 Smart green growth is the best option for a socially and environmentally sustainable future.
- ⏳ We are at a critical juncture in history, where technological revolutions allow us to shape the future in profound ways.
- 🔄 The world has experienced five major technological revolutions, and we are currently halfway through the fifth—focused on information technology and telecommunications.
- 🚀 Each technological revolution brings a leap in productivity across all industries, including raw materials, manufacturing, and services.
- ⚖️ Historically, there is a pattern: first finance leads, then production, followed by a golden age of growth. We are at the turning point between finance and production.
- 💰 A golden age of sustainable growth is possible, but it requires strong governance, state intervention, and a shift in market priorities from finance to production.
- 🏙️ Technological revolutions not only drive economic changes but also bring about new ways of life, such as the suburban lifestyle in the mass-production era.
- 💡 Smart green growth involves de-materializing GDP, focusing on services over products, and improving natural resource efficiency.
- 💼 A shift in lifestyle towards green living will create new jobs and industries, but this change must be driven by aspiration, not guilt or fear.
Q & A
What is the speaker's main argument in the transcript?
-The speaker argues that we are at a pivotal moment in history, a rare opportunity for shaping the future through 'smart green growth,' which is not only environmentally sustainable but also socially sustainable.
Why does the speaker believe now is the right time for change?
-The speaker believes the current time is ripe for change because historical patterns show that after technological revolutions, there comes a 'turning point' where production can shift towards creating a sustainable and prosperous future.
What are the five technological revolutions mentioned by the speaker?
-The five technological revolutions mentioned are: (1) the Industrial Revolution, (2) the Age of Steam, Coal, Iron, and Railways, (3) the Age of Steel and Heavy Engineering, (4) the Age of Automobiles, Oil, Plastics, and Mass Production, and (5) the current Age of Information Technology and Telecommunications.
What does the speaker mean by 'smart green growth'?
-'Smart green growth' refers to a type of economic growth that uses information and communication technologies (ICT) to boost productivity while also being environmentally sustainable, with a focus on reducing inequality and improving social sustainability.
What historical patterns does the speaker use to explain the current moment?
-The speaker explains that technological revolutions follow a pattern: an initial 'installation' period, followed by a financial bubble, a recession, and then a 'golden age' of prosperity. The speaker believes we are currently at the turning point between finance-led growth and production-led growth.
Why is the state important in achieving a golden age, according to the speaker?
-The speaker argues that the state is crucial in tilting the playing field toward social good. The state must actively shape markets so they align with business and societal needs, rather than relying solely on markets to self-regulate.
What parallels does the speaker draw between the present day and the 1930s?
-The speaker draws parallels with the 1930s, noting similar challenges like structural unemployment, inequality, low investment, social unrest, populist leaders, and economic stagnation, all of which signal the need for a major societal and economic shift.
How does the speaker view the role of new lifestyles in economic growth?
-The speaker believes that new lifestyles are essential to creating demand for new products and services, which in turn drives job creation and economic growth. Each technological revolution has historically led to the emergence of new lifestyles that reshape economies.
Why does the speaker oppose the concept of 'degrowth'?
-The speaker opposes 'degrowth' because they believe that stopping economic growth is not a solution to inequality or environmental issues. Instead, they advocate for 'green growth' that shifts towards sustainable industries and services while addressing the needs of the global population.
How can 'smart green growth' provide solutions to both environmental and social challenges?
-'Smart green growth' can solve both environmental and social challenges by promoting innovation that enhances productivity, reduces resource use, and provides a good quality of life for all. It encourages green technologies, sustainable industries, and services that align with global aspirations for a better, more equal society.
Outlines
🌍 The Opportunity for Change
The speaker highlights that despite the challenging times, this is a unique opportunity for profound change. They argue that smart green growth is key to a socially and environmentally sustainable future. The talk will address why now is the time for action, the role of smart green growth, and why lifestyle changes are crucial. The speaker draws on historical examples from past technological revolutions to emphasize the significance of the current moment, noting that we're in the middle of the information technology revolution, a time that offers immense possibilities.
🔄 The Historical Cycle of Technological Revolutions
The speaker explains that technological revolutions follow a predictable pattern: an installation period, a turning point, and a deployment period that leads to a golden age. They cite past examples, such as the Victorian boom and the post-war Golden Age, to show how technological shifts have shaped economies and societies. We are currently at the turning point in the information technology revolution, which could lead to a sustainable golden age if we shift focus from finance to production and societal needs. However, if this opportunity is missed, the world may face continued instability.
💡 The Role of the State and Lifestyle Changes
The speaker argues for an active role of the state in shaping markets towards social good. They stress the importance of lifestyle changes that emerge with each technological revolution, citing the suburban lifestyle of the mass-production era. The state can guide this by promoting innovation and shaping demand, which will in turn influence supply. Reducing inequality and fostering a green lifestyle that promotes sustainability are key to creating new jobs and ensuring long-term growth.
🌱 Smart Green Growth: The Path Forward
The speaker advocates for smart green growth, rejecting ideas of 'degrowth' as impractical given the global need for development. Smart green growth leverages information technology to drive productivity, innovation, and sustainability across industries. By increasing the role of intangibles in GDP and focusing on a circular economy, growth can become more sustainable and inclusive. Lifestyles play a crucial role in this shift, as new ways of living create demand for sustainable products and services. The speaker highlights the importance of policies that support innovation in green industries and make sustainable living desirable and accessible.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Smart Green Growth
💡Technological Revolutions
💡Turning Point
💡Golden Age
💡Social Sustainability
💡Intangibles
💡Lifestyles
💡Casino Finance
💡Dematerialization
💡New Lifestyle
Highlights
We are living in difficult times, but this is a rare opportunity to make real change that may only come once or twice in a century.
Smart green growth is the best option for a socially sustainable future, addressing both environmental and social sustainability.
The fifth technological revolution—our current revolution—presents a moment of transformation where we can shape the future profoundly.
Historical experience shows that we are at a critical juncture where society can shift from financial dominance to a production-led economy.
Previous technological revolutions have reshaped society, such as the Industrial Revolution and the age of steam, leading to global markets and changes in national rankings.
The current revolution, driven by information technology and telecommunications, offers opportunities for innovation and leaps in productivity across all industries and sectors.
Technological revolutions follow a regular pattern: eruption of technology, financial bubbles, recession, and then a golden age of prosperity.
We are at the turning point where we can move towards a sustainable golden age, but this requires curbing the dominance of finance and focusing on production and societal benefit.
The conditions we are living through resemble the 1930s, with structural unemployment, inequality, and populist leaders exploiting economic and social frustrations.
A global sustainable golden age is possible, but it requires governments to actively shape markets for social good, alongside the emergence of a new lifestyle.
The new green lifestyle will not spread by guilt or fear but by desire and aspiration, much like the spread of suburban and cosmopolitan lifestyles in past revolutions.
Smart green growth emphasizes a shift towards dematerializing GDP and lifestyles, focusing on services and circular economy rather than mass production.
Technological revolutions destroy old jobs and skills but create new ones through new lifestyles that demand new products and services.
The shift to a smart green lifestyle has already begun among the elite, the highly educated, and the young, and it will eventually spread to the mass population.
Active policies are needed to turn environmental problems into social and economic solutions, making green innovation the most profitable path forward.
Transcripts
[Applause]
hello everybody
we are living in terrible times and yet
this is the best opportunity we've had
in a long time to make a real change
now everybody who's here obviously
agrees with making the change but you
could also feel that it's difficult that
it isn't going to happen soon that it
isn't going to happen right well my
message today is about my understanding
of the specific moment we are living
this is an opportunity that only comes
around about once maybe twice a century
so this generation has the opportunity
to shape the future seriously profoundly
that's what I'm going to argue today so
smart green growth is our best option
for a socially sustainable future I'm
not just talking about environmentally
sustainable I'm talking about both it is
also socially sustainable and obviously
we need it to be socially sustainable so
this is going to be my understanding
from my studies of the history of
technological revolutions three
questions why now quite precisely smart
green growth and one that's very
important why our lifestyles so crucial
in this issue why now now because
historical experience shows that we are
at the appropriate juncture for shaping
the future so this is the moment how do
we know that because there have been
five technological revolutions this is
the fifth so we have enough historical
material to find out where we are
and what has happened in previous
occasions so let's look at the
revolution so we have the first one
everybody knows the Industrial
Revolution machines factories canals
after that from about 1830 we had the
age of steam coal iron and railways
which together with the Telegraph was
the Internet of the time after that
around 1875 we have the age of steel and
heavy engineering electrical chemical
civil naval but mainly something very
important it was the first globalization
so we can learn a lot from that one it
was the time when thanks to steam ships
which replaced sailing ships of course
we were able to have north/south trips
to bring food to the north and therefore
we had this first global market and we
also had something that we're having now
which is the development of countries
that had been left behind before so we
had the whole of Australia New Zealand
South Africa until etc and the US and
Canada and so on forging ahead Germany
also forging ahead in that particular
period so it also makes changes in the
organization and the ranking of
countries that's what technological
revolutions bring so then we have the
fourth revolution the age of the
automobile oil plastics and mass
production that's the one we're trying
to deal with that's the one that's for
all the problems but at its time it
brought all the solutions it was
wonderful we had the post-war boom when
we come to the fifth to our current
revolution the age of information
technology and telecommunications now
the reason why that arrow is only half
way is because we're only half way along
and that's precisely what this talk is
going to be about why is it that when
you're half way along you have all the
possibilities for shaping the future so
each of these revolutions brings the
techno economic and social institutional
shift so it can change practically
everything
because it changes common sense you
wouldn't build a bureaucratic pyramid
now if you do an organization you do a
platform you do a network it's just a
different way of looking at things and
of course the digital natives find it
fantastic some of us find it a bit more
difficult but we're learning so what it
provides are new directions for
innovation and the potential leap in
productivity but not just in all those
software things we're talking about
relief in productivity in every single
sector including raw materials every
industry every activity every social
activity every business activity has a
leap in productivity thanks to the
technological revolution but this is
where the important thing comes it's how
we know that this moment that I'm
telling you is the moment it's because
the historical record shows a regular
pattern of propagation we have first an
installation period then something that
I call the turning point which is when
you go from finance to production and
then a deployment period which is the
golden age so we have eruption of the
technology bubble prosperity a recession
a golden age prosperity and then
maturity imagine to discover that this
is the order of things when we have we
had canal mania and after that we had a
short period and then the great way to
sleep Railway mania rail railway panic
and then the Victorian boom the London
funded global booms all over the
southern hemisphere and then after the
crashes the Belle époque then the
Roaring Twenties and then the crash of
29 and then a long period of recession
and war etc until you have the post-war
Golden Age and now we had two bubbles
the dot-com boom that crashed in 2000
the global casino the truck that crashed
in 2008 I wouldn't be surprised
unfortunately if we have a third crush
but anyway what we could have ahead is a
sustainable
robell Golden Age not just in the
advanced countries of the West as it
used to be called but in the whole world
it's possible now the first half is led
by finance we know very well we've been
led by finance all this time and they're
still leading us unfortunately the
second half is led by production and
state there is no way we'll ever have a
golden age just by letting markets we've
got to shape the context so that markets
act in the direction that is a positive
sum game for business and society if we
don't do that we're going to continue
stumbling and stumbling possibly with
more more populist desperation and all
sorts of other things so where are we we
are precisely at that turning point we
are at the point when we can have a
golden age ahead but we need them to to
control finance so that it starts
working towards production and the and
and society and the whole economy and
not just this financed financing
financed in a casino now we need to
understand the nature of the turning
point it's us in the 1930s that's what
we're living it's the equivalent of the
1930s so what do we have structural
unemployment this killing of lots of
people hopelessness inequality casino
finance low investment feeble growth
social unrest populist messianic leaders
with growing following more and more the
more they offer heaven the more people
want to go with them and we know they
can't do it but how can we prove it well
they'll prove it themselves not
achieving it but anyway xenophobia could
be the Jews it could be the Muslims it
could be the Mexicans whoever it is
somebody's got to be blamed and
therefore it ends up being the weak
economic migrations
talk of secular stagnation the first
time it was ever used by
was in the 30s recessions even
depression so it's a pretty ugly time
but we've been there before the thing is
that there is a huge underlying
technological potential that simply
lacks a clear synergistic direction a
direction where everybody will start
moving and then advance towards that
better society towards a global
sustainable golden age so that is why
this is the historical moment for
government to come back actively and
knowing it which way to go and we need
to have consensus in order to do that
and of course we're very far from that
now the direction for golden ages is
defined by two features one is an active
state tilting the playing field you know
this whole thing about the even playing
field it's gotta be an even playing
field okay so it's the same for
everybody but tilted towards social good
so same for everybody that's not in
question the question is does it have to
be nothing just keep your hands out I
think we heard Mariana explaining this
the ones who were here that it really
makes a huge difference if the state
does what it has to do the other thing
that we hardly ever talk about is that
we really also need the emergence of a
new lifestyle and it's got to be
promoted and it's got to be helped you
know how many things happened in order
to get the lifestyle of the
mass-production era the suburban
lifestyle the couple with two kids where
the wife stayed at home and was the
factory of the home and then the guy
went out and made the money and then
came back and then they had the TV
dinner and I'm the Saturday plank movie
staying's everything but also funny made
you know what Fannie Mae was it was a
way of government guaranteeing for the
banks to lend to people who were
salaried employees so the banks would
there so everybody
goodbye a cheap house on cheap land in
suburbia because they could now have a
car so the whole thing was all and of
course the welfare state unemployment
insurance and all the all the list so
all those things were very important
because that way of life is what gave
the market for all the innovations that
came and that's what we've got to do now
about green anyway so what does this
paid to it provides a clear path for
profitable innovation it provides
sufficient dynamic demand because if you
shape the demand you're also shaping the
supply you're also shaping innovation
you're saying in which direction so if
you make the man more green you will get
more green product and of course the
reduction of inequality it is absolutely
unacceptable that we are living in this
world where there is so much inequality
with so much wealth so that's a
responsibility and the new lifestyle
well it's about two things in
aspirational good life a new jobs to
cater to to cater for it or to cater to
it now both these things determine the
level of growth and of job creation so
now why smart green growth first of all
growth I am completely against all this
D growth silliness are you crazy
we have millions of hungry people all
over the world so you're gonna stop
growth because the rich are too rich no
well the problem is what grows because
you can have green grass and green
growth doesn't doesn't have the same
problems you know what these people who
are asking for D grows and no growth and
back row stand on grows on whatever else
they are really just in the mass
production world and they think that
growth is about mass production it's not
it can't be about anything it can be
about services completely intangibles
and so on and we're now going to look
why-why-why smart green growth because
it's the tie
direction we need now one that takes
advantage of the potential of ICT
because information technology is the
technology that now makes us powerful we
take advantage of it for productivity
global development and intangibles
we need a direction that opens
innovation paths for all industries and
activities not just for the ones that
are up there growing fast but for every
single industry and activity including
our personal activities we need one that
enables a good life for all within the
boundaries of the planet and that is
already a clear trend in business and
social behavior everybody who's here is
part of that trend the trend all is
already there we just have to make sure
we have a way of accelerating it now
let's define a little bit what is smart
green growth it's a constant increase in
the proportion of intangibles in both
GDP and lifestyles so we are D
materializing GDP and D materializing
lifestyles we are doing circular
economic and service economy so we're
talking about shifting to services
rather than products and multiplying the
productivity of natural resources now
why are lifestyles so crucial why do I
insist so much on the lifestyles issue
apart from the fact that of course I've
seen it in history social sustainability
implies jobs for all so technological
revolutions destroy jobs destroy skills
destroy regions we know it well we've
been seeing it and that's why there is
all this populist thing happening
because people have seen their jobs and
their skills and their regions
deteriorate and be lost but the needs of
the new lifestyles create the new
employment and that's how it has always
happened and of course we also have to
worry about the welfare the safe in
safety net that we would provide for
those lifestyles but anyway we had the
suburban American Way of life
we had the cosmopolitan life of the
Belle époque and we had the urban
Victorian lifestyle that's when the
first time the cities really grew
enormously and of course they required
construction and lots of products each
revolution enables a different way of
life that requires multiple new services
and products and what is a smart green
lifestyle well it's the new good life
for the global Information Age Green
will not spread by guilt or fear it's
going to spread by desire and aspiration
so it's got to be the good life that
everybody wants to have it and smart
smart because it's the natural direct
direction of the digital revolution and
it's also the most intelligent choice so
it's also smart in that way now
I said before that you don't push
something that's not moving you don't
accelerate something that doesn't exist
well we know that the smart green shift
in lifestyle has begun as always at the
top of the income scale at the top of
the education scale and among the young
that's how it's always happened so we
don't have to worry about it being an
elite thing elite things become mass
things when they spread enough when they
grow enough to become really both
low-cost and desirable because people
copy those things of the elite
eventually so we now have already
naturally instead of synthetic
minimalist design gourmet and organic
food working from home active and
creative prosumer instead of passive
consumer exercise for wellbeing accent
on health and caring cycling and extreme
sports solar power as luxurious as well
as electric cars intense use of Internet
of course anti waste Pro recycling high
quality instead of quantity
customized rather than standard services
rather than
jebel products access or rental instead
of possession we could have a whole
reuse and maintenance industry instead
of waste we need active policies to make
all that the most profitable direction
to innovation so it's the right time to
turn what we now see as the
environmental problem into the urgently
required social economic solution not
just environmental it's the social
economic solution but we will only
succeed if we all work together business
government and society thank you
[Applause]
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