What Earth in 2050 could look like - Shannon Odell
Summary
TLDR随着人类活动引发的气候变化带来的破坏性影响日益加剧,尽管各国政府在承诺减排上未能充分行动,科学家和气候专家仍对未来30至80年的世界进行了预测。到2050年,地球平均温度将升高2度,导致极端高温、干旱、洪水频发,基础设施承压,资源短缺加剧,全球有2.5亿人流离失所。尽管形势严峻,但减排行动已初见成效,未来的灾难还有避免的可能。这需要迅速而大规模的全球性行动,投资可再生能源,减少化石燃料依赖,以及创新和集体行动来应对气候变化。
Takeaways
- 🌍 我们已经感受到了人为气候变化的破坏性影响,但政府在制定和执行减排承诺上仍然不尽人意。
- 🌡️ 如果继续当前的发展路径,到2050年,地球温度将比1800年代,即大规模燃烧化石燃料开始时,上升2度。
- 🔥 高温、热浪和野火将成为常态,伦敦的夏日温度超过40度,德里超过45度,极端热浪的频次增加8到9倍。
- 💡 极端高温导致广泛的电力中断,电网难以满足冷却家庭的能源需求。
- 🏥 高温还导致热射病、脱水和耗竭的患者增加,急救车夜间穿梭不息。
- 🌵 干旱和洪水灾害加剧,美国西南部、南非南部和澳大利亚东部遭受更长、更频繁、更严重的干旱。
- 🌆 城市化加速,但伴随而来的是住房短缺和就业机会缺乏。
- 👶 升高的温度和空气污染导致早产和低体重婴儿比例上升。
- 🌊 海平面上升超过一米,导致马绍尔群岛和图瓦卢等国家部分地区不适宜居住。
- 🍲 气候变化导致食品和水资源短缺,推高了食品价格。
- 🌱 尽管国家已开始采取措施降低排放量,科学家们对抗击气候变化持乐观态度,但强调现有政策和承诺在速度和规模上都不足以应对挑战。
- 💡 科学家强调,通过投资可再生能源、减少化石燃料生产、支持电动交通、保护森林和规范产业,可以缓解气候变化的最坏影响。
Q & A
如果我们继续当前的路径,到2050年地球将暖化多少度?
-到2050年,地球自1800年代以来已暖化了2度。
极端高温将如何影响全球的电力供应和健康状况?
-极端高温导致广泛的停电,因为电网难以满足冷却家庭所需的能源需求。此外,救护车因处理中暑、脱水和疲劳的病人而频繁鸣笛。
预计将面临更频繁严重干旱的地区有哪些?
-预计美国西南部、南非南部和澳大利亚东部将经历更长、更频繁、更严重的干旱。
哪些地区将因温度升高而面临更频繁的重大降雨事件?
-菲律宾、印度尼西亚和日本将面临更频繁的重大降雨事件,因为温度上升导致水分更快蒸发并在大气中保留更多水分。
全球气候变化导致的新生儿问题包括哪些?
-全球气候变化导致的新生儿问题包括更高比例的早产和低体重出生,以及新生婴儿护理部门感受到的资源压力增加。
到2100年,海平面上升预计将超过多少米?
-到2100年,由于热胀冷缩和冰川融化,海平面预计将上升超过一米。
气候变化如何影响全球食品供应和价格?
-由于极端热浪和湿度增加使得农业户外劳动变得致命,导致热带和亚热带长久以来生产的水果和产品难以出现在货架上,食品和水资源短缺使得所有社区的杂货价格飙升。
气候变化预测为何仍然让很多专家保持乐观?
-尽管气候变化预测令人担忧,但许多负责这些评估的专家仍然保持乐观,因为自从国家开始采取减少排放的措施以来,全球变暖的预测已经向下调整。
哪些政策被认为能够缓解气候变化的最坏影响?
-能够缓解气候变化最坏影响的政策包括投资可再生能源、减少化石燃料生产、支持电动交通、保护森林以及对工业进行监管。
为什么现有的气候政策和承诺被认为不够充分?
-现有的气候政策和承诺被认为不够充分,因为它们在速度或规模上都不足以产生实质性的变化,实现真正的改变将需要大胆的解决方案、创新和集体行动。
Outlines
🌍2050年与2100年的气候变化前景
这段描述了如果我们继续目前的路径,未来30至80年内我们的世界将面临的情况。到2050年,全球温度比1800年代,即人类开始大规模燃烧化石燃料时,上升了2度,远超世界领导人承诺的1.5度目标。这将导致热浪和野火频发,伦敦夏日气温超过40度,德里超过45度,极端热浪的频次增加8到9倍。此外,电力网因难以应对冷却家庭的能源需求而频繁停电,导致热射病、脱水和疲劳患者普遍。美国西南部、南非南部和澳大利亚东部遭受更长时间、频率更高和更严重的干旱。而菲律宾、印度尼西亚和日本等地则面临更频繁的大雨。随着气候变化加剧,一些社区无法跟上重建的步伐,许多人迁移到城市中,面临住房短缺和就业机会缺乏。新生儿重症监护室感受到资源紧缩的影响,由于温度上升和空气污染,导致早产和低体重出生率上升。儿童患哮喘和呼吸系统疾病的比率在经常暴露于森林火灾烟雾的社区急剧上升。虽然由于政府行动,每年向大气中添加的全球排放量最终开始趋于稳定,但这一行动来得太迟。我们未能及时达到零排放目标。结果,到2100年,地球将进一步升温0.5到1.5度。我们一半以上的剩余冰川已经融化。随着海水升温,其体积因热膨胀而增加,加上冰川融化,导致海平面上升超过一米。整个国家,如马绍尔群岛和图瓦卢,变得不适宜居住,因为它们的大片岛屿被淹没。一些岛屿,如马尔代夫,花费数十亿建造连接在一起的筏子,上面有公寓、学校和餐馆,漂浮在其被淹没的城市上方。在雅加达、孟买和拉各斯重新安置的气候移民不得不再次放弃他们的家园,因为上升的潮水和极端风暴洪水淹没了建筑物和破坏了基础设施。总体而言,2.5亿人被迫流离失所。一些富裕城市,如纽约和上海,试图适应,提升建筑和道路。城市沿海建起了高达十米的海墙。儿童学习已经灭绝的海洋生物,这些生物曾居住在现在因表面水温上升而消失的海洋珊瑚礁中。随着食物和水资源短缺影响所有社区,杂货价格飙升。曾经在热带和亚热带地区种植的水果和产品很少出现在货架上,因为强烈的热浪和不断增加的湿度使得农民在户外工作变得致命。不可预测的热浪、干旱和洪水摧毁了在非洲、亚洲和南美的小规模农户,这些农户以前生产了世界上三分之一的食物。数以亿计的人被推向饥饿和饥荒。尽管气候预测可能令人不安和恐惧,但许多负责这些评估的专家仍保持乐观态度。自从各国开始采取措施降低排放以来,温暖的预测已经向下调整。在不到十年的时间里,我们已经降低了我们的预期排放率,以至于我们不再走向接近4度的温暖。投资可再生能源、削减化石燃料生产、支持电动交通、保护我们的森林和规范行业的政策可以帮助减轻气候变化的最坏影响。但气候专家也强调,当前的政策和承诺在速度或规模上都不够——实现真正的变化将需要大胆的解决方案、创新和集体行动。我们仍有时间重写我们的未来,每十分之一度都很重要。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡气候变化
💡排放承诺
💡1.5度目标
💡极端天气
💡海平面上升
💡气候难民
💡食物和水资源短缺
💡可再生能源
💡减排政策
💡集体行动
Highlights
地球自1800年代以来已经升温了2度
伦敦的夏天温度超过40度,德里超过45度
极端热浪现在比以前常见8到9倍
由于电网负荷过大,导致广泛的停电
美国西南部、南非南部和澳大利亚东部经历更长、更频繁、更严重的干旱
菲律宾、印度尼西亚和日本面临更频繁的强降雨
升温和空气污染导致早产和低体重出生率上升
更多儿童发展出哮喘和呼吸系统疾病
由于政府行动,全球每年向大气中添加的排放量最终开始趋于稳定
到2100年,地球又升温了0.5到1.5度
一半以上的冰川融化
海平面上升超过一米
250万人被迫流离失所
纽约和上海等富裕城市试图适应,提高建筑和道路
孩子们学习已经灭绝的海洋生物
由于食物和水资源短缺,食品价格飙升
气候专家强调当前的政策和承诺在速度和规模上都不够远大
Transcripts
While we’re already feeling the devastating effects
of human-caused climate change,
governments continue to fall short on making and executing emissions pledges
that would help thwart further warming.
So, what will our world look like in the next 30 to 80 years,
if we continue on the current path?
While it’s impossible to know exactly how the next decade will unfold,
scientists and climate experts have made projections,
factoring in the current state of affairs.
This future we’re about to describe is bleak,
but remember there’s still time to ensure it doesn’t become our reality.
It’s 2050.
We’ve blown past the 1.5 degree target that world leaders promised to stick to.
The Earth has warmed 2 degrees since the 1800s,
when the world first started burning fossil fuels in mass scale.
Reports on heatwaves and wildfires regularly fill the evening news.
Summer days exceed 40 degrees in London and 45 degrees in Delhi,
as extreme heat waves are now 8 to 9 times more common.
These high temperatures prompt widespread blackouts,
as power grids struggle to keep up with the energy demands
needed to properly cool homes.
Ambulance sirens blare through the night,
carrying patients suffering from heatstroke, dehydration, and exhaustion.
The southwestern United States, southern Africa, and eastern Australia
experience longer, more frequent, and more severe droughts.
Meanwhile, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan
face more frequent heavy rainfall
as rising temperatures cause water to evaporate faster,
and trap more water in the atmosphere.
As the weather becomes more erratic,
some communities are unable to keep pace with rebuilding
what’s constantly destroyed.
Many move to cities,
where they face housing shortages and a lack of jobs.
A resource squeeze is felt in newborn intensive care wards,
as the rising temperature and air pollution
cause higher rates of premature and underweight births.
More children develop asthma and respiratory disease,
and rates balloon in communities regularly exposed to forest fire smoke.
The global emissions added to the atmosphere each year
finally start to level off, thanks to government action,
but it’s decades too late.
We fail to reach net zero in time.
As a result, by 2100 the Earth has warmed another 0.5 to 1.5 degrees.
Over half of our remaining glaciers have melted.
As the sea heats up, its volume increases due to thermal expansion.
Together, this elevates sea level by well over a meter.
Entire nations, like the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, are uninhabitable
as large swaths of their islands are submerged.
Some islands, like the Maldives,
spend billions building interconnected rafts
that house apartments, schools, and restaurants
that float above its drowned cities.
Resettled climate migrants in Jakarta, Mumbai, and Lagos
are forced to abandon their homes once again,
as rising tides and extreme storms flood buildings and crumble infrastructure.
Overall, 250 million people are displaced.
Some affluent cities like New York and Shanghai attempt to adapt,
elevating buildings and roadways.
Ten-meter-tall seawalls line the cities’ coasts.
Children learn about extinct sea life which once inhabited the ocean’s reefs,
all of which have vanished thanks to rising surface water temperatures.
Grocery prices skyrocket,
as food and water scarcity touch all communities.
Fruits and products long grown in the tropics and subtropics
rarely show up on shelves,
as intense heat waves paired with increasing humidity
make it deadly for farmers to work outdoors.
Unpredictable heatwaves, droughts, and floods
cripple small-scale farmers in Africa, Asia, and South America,
who previously produced one-third of the world’s food.
Hundreds of millions of people are pushed into hunger and famine.
Climate predictions can feel overwhelming and terrifying.
Yet many of the experts responsible for these assessments remain optimistic.
Since countries have first begun taking steps to lower their emissions,
warming projections have shifted downwards.
In less than a decade, we’ve reduced our projected emission rates
so that we’re no longer on track to hit nearly 4 degrees of warming.
Policies that invest in renewable energy sources,
cut fossil fuel production, support electric transportation,
protect our forests, and regulate industry
can help mitigate the worst effects of climate change.
But climate experts have also stressed that current policies and pledges
don’t go far enough— in speed or scale.
Enacting real change will require bold solutions,
innovations, and collective action.
There’s still time to rewrite our future, and every tenth of a degree counts.
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)