Jamaica's Economic Growth & Vision 2030 Objectives | TVJ Smile Jamaica

Summary

The discussion centers on Jamaica's progress towards its Vision 2030 goals, with financial economist Dr. Adrian Stokes evaluating the nation's economic growth and challenges. Despite a reported 5.7% economic growth in Q2 2024, only 17% of Vision 2030 targets have been met, signaling the need for recalibration. Dr. Stokes emphasizes the importance of human capital development, addressing declining productivity, brain drain, and the role of education and training. He also highlights national security, healthcare, and economic policy as key pillars for achieving sustainable growth, while advocating for more realistic, short-term goals.

Takeaways

• 📈 The Jamaican economy grew by 5.7% in Q2, driven primarily by the services sector.
• 🎯 Only 17% of the Vision 2030 goals have been achieved, with around 79% of the targets not being met.
• 🤔 The progress toward Vision 2030 may need recalibration, potentially extending the timeline to 2040 or 2050.
• 😷 COVID-19 was not the primary factor hindering the success of Vision 2030; broader issues with execution and overly ambitious goals are to blame.
• 🎓 A key recommendation is to focus on human capital development, emphasizing education and training to drive economic growth.
• 🚶‍♂️ The brain drain is exacerbating Jamaica’s human capital crisis, as skilled workers are leaving the country.
• 🛡️ National security and human capital are seen as pillars for Jamaica’s future development, given the country’s high crime rates and limited resources.
• 🏥 Health care investment and improvements in the standard of care are also necessary for Jamaica’s progress.
• 🏦 Strengthening the macroeconomy with sustainable policies is essential for continued growth and stability.
• 🤝 To succeed, Jamaica needs more realistic goals, potentially narrowing the focus to key areas like human capital, security, health, and economic sustainability, with bipartisan political support.

Q & A

What is the reported economic growth for Jamaica in Q2, according to the PIOJ?

The economy grew by 5.7% in Q2, with the services industry leading the growth.

What is Vision 2030, and how is it currently progressing?

Vision 2030 is Jamaica's national development plan aimed at creating a prosperous economy. However, the plan has only achieved a 17% success rate so far, with 79% of its initiatives not being met.

What are some factors contributing to Jamaica’s economic growth?

Economic growth was driven by an improvement in the services sector, largely due to the relaxation or removal of COVID-19 measures.

What challenges are Jamaica facing in terms of economic growth?

Jamaica is facing challenges such as geopolitical tensions driving up commodity prices, local interest rate hikes by the Bank of Jamaica, and the ongoing impact of COVID-19.

Did COVID-19 significantly impact Jamaica’s progress on Vision 2030?

While COVID-19 did have an impact, it cannot be solely blamed for the slow progress of Vision 2030, as only a 17% success rate has been achieved since its launch.

What recommendations were made for improving Jamaica’s progress toward Vision 2030?

Dr. Adrian Stokes recommended narrowing the focus of the national development plan to more realistic goals, with an emphasis on human capital development, security, health, and the macroeconomy.

Why is human capital development critical for Jamaica’s future economic growth?

Human capital development, which includes improving skills and education, is essential for inclusive economic growth. Without it, Jamaica faces a crisis in labor productivity and the continued challenge of a brain drain.

What is the definition of human capital, and how can it be developed?

Human capital refers to the economic value of a person’s skill set and experience. It can be developed through improvements in education and training.

How is the brain drain affecting Jamaica’s human capital development?

The brain drain, where skilled individuals leave the country, exacerbates Jamaica’s human capital crisis by reducing the number of skilled workers available to drive economic growth.

What pillars did Dr. Stokes suggest focusing on to achieve sustainable development in Jamaica?

Dr. Stokes suggested focusing on four main pillars: human capital development, national security, health, and the macroeconomy.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Is Jamaica on Track for Vision 2030?

The host welcomes Dr. Adrian Stokes, financial economist and vice president of PSOJ, to discuss Jamaica's Vision 2030 and its alignment with recent economic growth. While Jamaica saw a 5.7% growth in Q2, Dr. Stokes questions if Vision 2030 is achievable within the timeframe. He highlights that only 17% of Vision 2030's targets have been met, and 79% are off track. He warns that challenges, including geopolitical tensions and local economic issues, may push the realization of Vision 2030 much further, possibly to 2040 or 2050.

05:01

📉 Overshooting or Misjudging Vision 2030?

The conversation deepens as Dr. Stokes critiques the ambition behind Vision 2030, pointing out that achieving only 17% of its goals cannot be entirely blamed on COVID-19. He explains that both public and private sectors struggle with execution and suggests that Vision 2030 may have been too broad and grandiose for Jamaica’s capacity. Dr. Stokes emphasizes the need for clearer, more specific goals to increase the likelihood of success, particularly in human capital development and economic improvement.

10:01

👩‍🎓 The Importance of Human Capital in Jamaica's Future

Dr. Stokes identifies human capital as the cornerstone of Jamaica's inclusive economic development. He describes a 'human capital crisis,' exacerbated by a brain drain and declining labor productivity. To build human capital, he stresses the need for improved education and training, which are essential to retaining skilled workers. Dr. Stokes argues that if Jamaica focuses on human capital, it will help address other challenges, including crime.

🔑 Narrowing Focus for National Development

In response to the host’s question on how to recalibrate Vision 2030, Dr. Stokes advocates for a more focused approach. He recommends shortening the timeline to about seven years, ensuring cross-political collaboration, and concentrating on key areas like national security, education, and economic policies. By narrowing the objectives and securing bipartisan support, Dr. Stokes believes Jamaica can achieve more sustainable progress.

🏥 Pillars for Jamaica's Development: Health and Economy

Dr. Stokes outlines the four key pillars for Jamaica's development: human capital, security, health, and the economy. He stresses the need for improved healthcare, as it is vital for overall societal well-being. Furthermore, he emphasizes the importance of sound macroeconomic policies that ensure long-term growth and stability. According to Dr. Stokes, focusing on these pillars will significantly enhance Jamaica's chances of achieving its developmental goals.

Keywords

💡Vision 2030

Vision 2030 is Jamaica's national development plan aimed at transforming the country into a place of choice to live, work, raise families, and do business by the year 2030. In the video, Vision 2030 serves as a central theme, with the discussion focusing on whether the country is on track to achieve its ambitious goals. The conversation reveals that only 17% of the targets have been met, prompting a reassessment of the plan's feasibility.

💡Economic Growth

Economic growth refers to the increase in a country's output of goods and services over time. In the context of the video, Jamaica's economy grew by 5.7% in the second quarter, primarily driven by the services industry. However, this growth is juxtaposed against the challenges faced in achieving Vision 2030, indicating that economic growth alone may not be sufficient to meet the broader development goals.

💡Human Capital

Human capital refers to the economic value of the skills, knowledge, and experience possessed by individuals. The video emphasizes that investing in human capital is crucial for Jamaica's development, as it underpins inclusive economic growth. The discussion highlights that Jamaica faces a 'human capital crisis' due to low levels of education and training, which is exacerbated by a significant brain drain.

💡Services Sector

The services sector encompasses industries that provide services rather than goods, such as tourism, finance, and healthcare. In the video, the services sector is identified as the main driver of Jamaica's recent economic growth. The easing of COVID-19 restrictions allowed for a recovery in this sector, contributing to the overall positive economic performance.

💡Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical tensions refer to conflicts or strained relations between countries that can impact global markets and economies. The video mentions these tensions as external factors that are creating headwinds for Jamaica's economy, driving up commodity prices and affecting the country's ability to achieve Vision 2030 goals.

💡Brain Drain

Brain drain is the emigration of highly skilled or educated individuals from a country, leading to a loss of talent. The video discusses how Jamaica is suffering from a significant brain drain, particularly among demographics crucial to the country's future development. This phenomenon is worsening the human capital crisis and hindering the country's ability to achieve its development objectives.

💡COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic refers to the global outbreak of the coronavirus that began in late 2019, causing widespread health, economic, and social disruptions. In the video, COVID-19 is acknowledged as a factor that set back some of Jamaica's progress toward Vision 2030, particularly by affecting economic activities and human capital development.

💡Security

Security, in this context, refers to the safety and protection of individuals and the stability of society, particularly in terms of reducing crime rates. The video underscores security as a critical pillar for Jamaica's development, noting that the high homicide rate poses a significant challenge to the country's progress. Improving security is seen as essential for achieving the broader goals of Vision 2030.

💡National Development Plan

A national development plan is a comprehensive framework outlining a country's long-term development goals and strategies. Vision 2030 is Jamaica's national development plan, but the video raises concerns about its effectiveness and the need to recalibrate its objectives. The plan's broad and ambitious nature is questioned, with suggestions to focus on more specific, realistic, and timely goals.

💡Sustainable Policies

Sustainable policies are strategies designed to promote long-term economic growth without compromising future generations' ability to meet their needs. In the video, the importance of implementing sustainable economic policies is highlighted as a key factor for maintaining Jamaica's economic improvement and achieving Vision 2030. The need for consistent and well-structured policies is emphasized to ensure ongoing progress.

Highlights

Dr. Adrian Stokes discusses the connection between Jamaica's economic growth and Vision 2030, with services leading the way in Q2 2024.

Despite the positive economic growth, Vision 2030 is not on track, with only 17% of its goals achieved.

Dr. Stokes emphasizes the need for recalibration, as 79% of the initiatives under Vision 2030 are not being met.

He questions whether Jamaica was too ambitious when crafting Vision 2030, especially in light of setbacks like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dr. Stokes highlights that while many blame COVID-19 for the slow progress, this does not account for the full picture of the challenges in meeting Vision 2030 targets.

He advocates for focusing on human capital development, stressing that it is essential for inclusive economic growth.

Jamaica faces a human capital crisis, with declining labor productivity due to poor human capital development.

Brain drain exacerbates the problem, as skilled individuals leave Jamaica, further weakening its human capital.

To solve this issue, Dr. Stokes emphasizes the importance of improving education and training as key drivers of human capital growth.

He criticizes the broadness of Vision 2030, suggesting the plan is difficult to communicate and implement effectively.

Stokes recommends narrowing Jamaica's developmental focus and adopting a shorter-term plan with more realistic goals, spanning seven years.

He suggests consensus building on key national issues such as security, education, and training across political lines.

National security is highlighted as another critical pillar, given Jamaica's high homicide rate, making it harder for the population to thrive.

Dr. Stokes advocates for significant investment in healthcare, noting that better health infrastructure is key to sustainable development.

He calls for macroeconomic policies that promote sustainable growth, which is essential for achieving long-term economic stability.

Transcripts

welcome back everybody so is jamaica

closer to achieving its goal of vision

2030 and how

is the reported economic growth

impacting this vision we're going to put

these questions to

financial economist and vice president

for the psoj dr adrian stokes who now

joins us via zoom good morning to you dr

stills how you doing

hi good morning how are you doing i'm

very well thank you very much asking

so our economy grew 5.7 percent this is

for q2 right june quarter services

industry leading the way that's

according to the pioj

um i want us to put us put this into

context against the background that we

hear now that vision 20 30 targets are

under review

um

first of all let me ask if you think

based on the trajectory on

if vision 2030 is looking more like

vision 20

40 or 50 or you think we're on the right

track to achieve it

well good morning again well first let

me

link the

growth the in the economy to the vision

2030 objectives

so the link is really to be seen in the

goal that the vision 23rd third goal

that speaks about a prosperous economy

and the performance that we saw during

the april the june quarter is reflective

of continued improvement in economy in

particular the services sector

and that improvement really came about

from measures that were put in place to

stem the spread of it being relaxed or

removed

and therefore we're seeing an

improvement in the the hospital the

space which is driving overall economic

growth

the

the key thing to

to really understand however is that the

economy is facing headwinds from

geopolitical tensions driving up

commodity prices

we have our own local headwinds with

interest local interest rates going up

um driven by the bank of jamaica but

overall the economy is in a better place

compared to say 2007 because we have a

much better capacity to absorb negative

shots but in terms of the specific

question in terms of the trajectory of

vision 2030. the honest answer is that

it's not going so well i think so far we

have only

17 17

uh success rate

and from what i can see from the latest

pioj

report on vision 2030

i would say approximately 79

of the initiatives are not being met and

therefore we need to recalibrate to get

on a better trajectory

wow 17 is an f

um

so

my question to you is

i remember when i was in corporate

corporate you see that scorecard i used

to have the green you know little green

for the tags that were on track you have

the amber for those that were going

along and the the red

right for if we're just not doing it

this is a big fat red

is it that we

we kind of overshot the runway in

crafting the goals

um

i know kovitov has set us back somewhat

but even with covid the time we launched

this vision 2030 campaign

so many years later it's already about

17 something else is wrong so did we

have it wrong from the start where we've

been too ambitious

excellent question because the truth is

you can't really blame

a 17

achievement or success rate on kobe it's

just not a credible response

now mind you with the best intention in

the world execution is hard not just the

public sector but also in the private

sector many countries will lag in their

developmental goals and that's what

we're seeing with vision 2030

and and so what many countries have done

and even in the in the private sector

from a corporate planning perspective

we tend to make goals smarter in the

sense that they are more specific

measures

realistic and timely in other words

they're not as grandiose are broad as

vision 2030 and with making the the

goals more let's call it realistic

right the goal is more realistic then

you tend to find that it is first of all

easier to communicate to the population

what we're doing and you will stand a

better chance of achieving a better

success rate on the overall

developmental objective so think you are

you ask a good question in terms of

whether or not the the focus is just way

too broad and given the country's

limited capacity

uh

you know whether or not we we have

taken on more than we can really execute

as a country yeah because we have to

look at it doc i mean um

when we look at or investment really in

human capital isn't that

uh a big thing that we need to right now

be focusing on if we want to move

forward and try to basically catch up

no absolutely and that would be my

recommendation i would say as a country

that we focus on human capital

development

right the the first thing to realize is

that human capital is the base on which

inclusive economic development will rely

on

right

it is

almost impossible

for our country to be developed

with low levels of human capital that

we're seeing right now

and in fact i would say that the country

faces a human capital crisis

we have had

uh

declining productivity in jamaica and

the reason why we have had decline in

labor productivity is because our human

capital development our formation is low

and and so

we need to invest we need to focus on

driving up our human capital and i

believe

i'm sorry to jump in because when you

say human capital i want you to just

explain that to the layman a little bit

um you know if we're developing it for

the future of jamaica what does that

look like one and two

if you need to build it you need the

people to develop and the people are

leaving

many of them so we how do we invest

in human capital when a lot of the

humans here are looking to

well certainly within a particular

demographic that's important to the

future of jamaica's development

yes well first let's just give a working

definition of human capital it is really

the

economic value of your skill set or your

experience and on your skills right if

we could place a value on it that's what

we would call or that's what we're

calling your human capital

right now how do you develop it

um there are there are many

many approaches but it really boils down

to the two major things right

improvement in training and education

those are prerequisites to improve

your human capital right and

you spoke just now about the brain drain

and

what is happening is that

with low human capital

a brain drain as significant as ours is

exacerbating the problem that the

country faces absolutely because it

means that we're losing our skilled

people and therefore

the human capital formation is being

and i would say

we have a crisis on our hands that we

must deal with urgently as a country and

so

wild vision 2030 is a good document it

has really nice objectives

from a communication perspective i

always find it very very hard to

comprehend to be honest with you just

too many things going on in vision 2030.

and therefore i would narrow my focus

around defining what human capital is

for the jamaican people

and

for everyone to understand that human

capital is really about building up the

individual building up jamaicans and i

believe if we can have that as a focus

then

it is so pervasive

or i should say it runs across all the

developmental goals you cannot achieve

or you cannot develop your country

without developing your people yeah and

it also impacts things like crime and

and

yeah

so what do we do doc

we're going to focus on it what do we do

do we readjust

the goals

or push back a date to say as simone

said vision 2040.

so

i would get out of this

broad very broad national developmental

plan

right i would

focus our or i would narrow the

objective

of the country's developmental

objectives first and foremost i would

move to a shorter time period

right vision 2030 was over many many

years right i would narrow the focus to

about seven years and i and i say seven

years to ensure that it cuts across

political cycles

right and i would also

try and build consensus on some key

national security

and also training and education um

initiatives right invite the opposition

to to get consensus on these things

because

security is also a key component of

human development it's hard for people

to to develop in a society where you can

lose your life uh at any moment so that

was my next question to you actually

because human capital development is one

pillar that you you've spoken about and

we have to build the rest on other

pillars if you're saying we need to

distill it and drill it down to the key

things that will help move us forward

with a with the third highest homicide

in rate in the world second highest in

brainery and third house in homicide

security has to be one of the pillars as

well so you say human capital is one

security is one if there were two other

pillars on which you could build

this this foundation for making it

happen what would they be

i would definitely say um health

we need to invest more in health care

right we need to improve the standard of

care in the country and and so that that

is something that

i believe

is also of in need of urgent attention

so so that's very very important and

also the the other thing to

to focus on

is the

economy right so i would say health

the

human capital bit in terms of training

and developing growth

and education

national security is one and the the big

focus as well would be on on the macro

economy and and ensuring that we have

policies that are sustainable and and

that our economy can continue to improve

from strength to strength excellent yeah

great insight so much to consider yeah

so much to consider thank you so much dr

adrian stokes for joining us this

morning financial economist and vice

president for psoj thank you sir thanks

dr stokes 17 everybody oh boy mercy

relocating to live in jamaica would you

want to after you hear that i think

there's some people who do many people

as a matter of fact who want to come

here to help make the situation better

we're going to talk about that after

this break