Huawei Phones Sales Crash in China; Steep Drop in Sales, Samsung Considers 30% Layoffs

China Observer
14 Sept 202418:10

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the significant decline in Huawei's smartphone sales, with once high-demand models like the Mate 60 Pro experiencing a drastic drop in value. It also touches on the broader economic challenges in China, including a 32.9% plunge in the domestic smartphone market and Samsung's market share and production cuts. The script further explores China's economic downturn, with deflationary pressures, high unemployment, and the real estate market's persistent slump. It concludes with commentary on the Chinese government's economic policies and their impact on the country's economic outlook.

Takeaways

  • 📉 Huawei's smartphone sales have significantly declined since April, with even flagship models like the Mate 60 Pro experiencing a sharp drop in market price.
  • 📱 The value depreciation of Huawei phones is rapid, leading to a 'buy high, sell low' scenario, which is affecting consumer purchasing decisions.
  • 🏢 Samsung, a major player in China's smartphone market, has seen its market share and sales drop, leading to facility closures and layoffs.
  • 📊 China's domestic smartphone market has experienced a 32.9% decline, affecting not only high-end brands but also budget-friendly options.
  • 💰 Economic factors such as tightening budgets and reduced consumer spending are contributing to the poor sales of smartphones in China.
  • 🌐 The economic downturn is not limited to smartphones; it extends to other sectors like real estate, liquor, and consumer goods, indicating a broader market issue.
  • 📈 Despite being recognized as socially responsible, foreign companies like Samsung and others are underreported in Chinese media, which could impact their market presence.
  • 📉 The Chinese white liquor sector, including renowned brands like Lu Lao Jiao, is facing a significant slowdown in sales, with stock prices and market demand dropping.
  • 💼 Layoffs and business adjustments in companies like Samsung are attributed to increased competition and a weak domestic demand, signaling a challenging economic environment.
  • 🌐 China's economic challenges are multifaceted, with deflationary pressures, high unemployment, and trade tensions contributing to a prolonged economic downturn.

Q & A

  • Why are Huawei phones not selling as well as before?

    -Huawei phones are struggling to sell due to various factors, including a sharp drop in demand for smartphones in China, economic downturns, and tightening consumer budgets. Even with significant price reductions, Huawei phones, which were previously marketed with patriotic appeal, are now facing challenges in attracting buyers.

  • How has the price of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro changed over time?

    -The market price of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro has plummeted significantly. Within just over a month, the value of the phone has dropped by 1,000 to 2,000 yen, reflecting the larger market challenges Huawei is facing.

  • What are some reasons consumers prefer Apple phones over Huawei?

    -Consumers prefer Apple phones because Huawei phones are perceived to lose value faster. There is also a perception that Apple products maintain their value better, making them more appealing for long-term investment.

  • How has the overall Chinese smartphone market been performing in 2024?

    -The Chinese smartphone market has plunged by 32.9% in 2024. This drop affects both high-end brands like Apple and Samsung, as well as budget-friendly options like Xiaomi. The economic downturn and tighter consumer budgets have reduced the demand for smartphones across the board.

  • Why did Samsung lay off employees in China despite leading global smartphone shipments?

    -Samsung's layoffs in China are due to intensified competition from domestic brands, weak domestic demand, and an economic downturn. While Samsung still leads globally in smartphone shipments, the company's sales in China have declined, prompting significant restructuring and layoffs.

  • What impact has the economic downturn had on foreign companies like Samsung in China?

    -The economic downturn in China has led foreign companies like Samsung to reduce operations and lay off employees. Samsung has closed several production facilities and continues to adjust its business due to weakening domestic demand and competition from local brands.

  • How is deflation affecting consumer spending in China?

    -Deflation is causing consumers to cut back on non-essential spending, including smartphones. Rising prices for essentials like food, driven by adverse weather, are leaving consumers with less disposable income to spend on luxury goods, contributing to the decline in smartphone sales.

  • What challenges are faced by other high-end industries in China, such as white wine producers?

    -Like the smartphone market, China's high-end industries, including white wine producers, are facing a significant decline in demand. Luxury liquor brands like Luo Lao Jiao and Moutai have seen sharp price drops as consumers cut back on spending, resulting in a challenging market for premium products.

  • Why are foreign companies in China receiving little recognition for their contributions to the economy?

    -Despite contributing significantly through job creation and taxes, foreign companies like Samsung and Tesla receive little positive coverage in Chinese media. This lack of recognition reflects a broader trend where media outlets often avoid reporting on foreign enterprises' achievements.

  • What long-term risks does China's economic deflation pose according to economists?

    -Economists warn that China's ongoing deflation could lead to a spiral of falling prices and wages, reducing consumer spending and investment, which could further slow economic growth. Prolonged deflation risks triggering widespread business bankruptcies and higher unemployment, worsening the economic situation.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Decline in Huawei Smartphone Sales

The script discusses the significant drop in Huawei's smartphone sales, particularly after April of this year. Despite the patriotic appeal and previous high demand for their foldable phones priced over 7,000 yen, sales have plummeted. The Nova Pro, once in high demand, has seen its price drop to over 4,000 yen with no significant sales boost. The owner of a Huawei flagship store notes the rapid depreciation of Huawei phones and the public's preference for Apple phones. The script also mentions the drastic reduction in the market price of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro, which has fallen by 1,000 to 2,000 yen in just over a month. This trend is not isolated to Huawei, as the entire domestic smartphone market in China has seen a 32.9% decline, with consumers tightening their budgets and showing reluctance to spend on smartphones.

05:03

🛠️ Samsung's Layoffs and Market Challenges in China

The script highlights Samsung's struggles in the Chinese market, with plans for layoffs and business adjustments due to intensified competition and an economic downturn. Despite being recognized as a socially responsible enterprise in China, Samsung's mobile business has been impacted, leading to a reduction in its workforce. The company's sales department is expected to face a 30% staff reduction by 2025. The script also discusses the broader trend of foreign companies leaving China and the lack of media coverage for their positive contributions. Economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and sales data for moon cakes and white wine reflect the weak demand in the Chinese market, suggesting that the economic downturn is affecting various industries.

10:04

📉 China's Economic Downturn and Deflation Risks

The script delves into China's economic challenges, including a significant slowdown in the white liquor sector, with brands like Lu Lao Jiao and Moutai experiencing price drops and production decreases. The mid-autumn festival, typically a boost for liquor sales, has seen no significant increase in demand or prices. Analysts attribute this to insufficient purchasing power and an oversupply of premium liquors. The script also discusses the broader economic issues, such as deflationary pressures, prolonged weakness in the real estate market, high unemployment, and escalating trade tensions. International attention has been drawn to China's economic situation, with core inflation rates remaining below 1% for 18 consecutive months. Experts warn of the potential for a deflationary spiral and call for aggressive policy measures to address the economic downturn.

15:04

🏛️ China's Economic Policy and Market Response

The final paragraph discusses the Chinese government's economic policies and their effectiveness in addressing the economic downturn. The People's Bank of China has taken measures such as lowering the required reserve ratio, but critics argue that these actions are more psychological reassurance than substantive solutions. The script points out that the Chinese Communist Party's stimulus measures have not addressed the root causes of the economic issues, such as authoritarian politics, corruption, and loss of public confidence. The economic outlook continues to worsen, with deflation expectations leading to a rebound in bonds and concerns over banks' exposure to interest rate risks. The script concludes with a warning from experts that China may need more significant stimulus measures to break the cycle of debt deflation.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Huawei

Huawei is a leading global information and communications technology (ICT) solutions provider, known for its smartphones, network equipment, and consumer electronics. The company has faced challenges due to U.S. sanctions, which have impacted its access to certain technologies and components, affecting its smartphone sales. However, Huawei continues to innovate and has introduced new products like the Mate 60 Pro and the Nova series, which have been driving its sales in China. Huawei's HarmonyOS is also a key part of its strategy to maintain a competitive edge in the market.

💡Smartphone Sales

Smartphone sales refer to the distribution and purchase of mobile phones that are equipped with advanced computing capabilities. The script mentions a significant drop in smartphone sales, including Huawei models, which is attributed to various factors such as economic downturns and consumer preferences shifting towards other brands like Apple. The sales figures are crucial for understanding market trends and the success of different smartphone models.

💡Patriotic Appeal

The patriotic appeal mentioned in the script refers to the marketing strategy where Huawei phones were promoted as a symbol of national pride, which previously boosted their sales. This approach is not as effective now, indicating a change in consumer behavior and the challenges Huawei faces in maintaining its market position.

💡Kirin Chip

The Kirin chip is a series of mobile processors designed by Huawei's subsidiary HiSilicon. These chips are used in Huawei smartphones and are known for their performance capabilities. The script mentions the Nova Pro featuring a Kirin chip, which is an example of Huawei's efforts to maintain product quality despite external pressures. However, the sales of these chips have been affected by the company's challenges, impacting the overall sales of Huawei smartphones.

💡Depreciation

Depreciation in the context of the script refers to the decline in the value of Huawei smartphones over time. This is a common phenomenon in the tech industry where the value of devices decreases as newer models are released or market conditions change. The rapid depreciation of Huawei phones is mentioned as a reason for their decreased sales.

💡Market Saturation

Market saturation is a state where the market is full of existing products and no further growth is possible. The script implies that the smartphone market, particularly in China, is becoming saturated, leading to a decline in sales across all brands, including Huawei.

💡Economic Downturn

An economic downturn refers to a period of negative growth in an economy, often characterized by reduced consumer spending and increased unemployment. The script suggests that the economic downturn in China is contributing to the decline in smartphone sales, as consumers are less willing to spend on non-essential items like smartphones.

💡Consumer Spending

Consumer spending refers to the amount of money consumers spend on goods and services. The script highlights that reduced consumer spending due to tightening budgets is a significant factor contributing to the decline in smartphone sales, including those of Huawei.

💡Deflation

Deflation is an economic phenomenon where a general decline in prices occurs, often due to a reduction in the supply of money or a decrease in demand. The script discusses deflationary pressures in China, which can lead to lower sales as consumers delay purchases in anticipation of further price drops.

💡HarmonyOS

HarmonyOS is Huawei's proprietary operating system developed in response to restrictions on using Google Mobile Services (GMS). The script mentions HarmonyOS in the context of Huawei's efforts to differentiate its products and maintain a competitive edge in the market despite challenges. The operating system is a key component of Huawei's strategy to control its software ecosystem and provide a seamless experience across devices.

Highlights

Huawei phones, once in high demand, are now struggling to sell despite having competitive features like Kirin chips.

The Huawei Nova Pro, which previously sold well at over 7,000 yen, has seen a significant price drop to over 4,000 yen but still faces poor sales.

Smartphone sales have plummeted since April, with even patriotically marketed Huawei phones failing to sell.

Huawei phones are losing value quickly, leading to a 'buy high, sell low' situation in the market.

The market price for the Huawei Mate 60 Pro has plummeted by 1,000 to 2,000 yen in just over a month.

The Huawei P50 Ultra's price has also seen a steep decline, originally priced at 99,999 yen and now significantly reduced.

The domestic smartphone market in China has seen a 32.9% drop, affecting brands like Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi.

Chinese consumers are tightening budgets and are reluctant to spend on smartphones, leading to unsold models.

Samsung, once the largest Android smartphone supplier in China, has seen a significant drop in market share from 20% to 19%.

Samsung has closed several production facilities in China and is considering further layoffs and business adjustments.

Samsung's layoffs in China are attributed to intensified competition and an economic downturn.

China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August grew by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating weak domestic demand.

The moon cake market in China has shown a concerning trend, with consumers cutting back on spending.

Luo Lao Jiao, a renowned Chinese liquor brand, has experienced a significant slowdown in performance and a drop in stock price.

The Chinese white wine sector is in decline, with top-tier liquors not experiencing the usual price hikes or demand surges.

China's economy has struggled to gain momentum in the second half of the year, with deflationary pressures becoming more entrenched.

China's core inflation rate has stayed below 1% for 18 consecutive months, indicating a persistent economic downturn.

The Chinese government's stimulus measures have failed to address the root cause of the economic downturn.

Transcripts

play00:01

why are Huawei phones not selling now

play00:03

previously when the foldable phone was

play00:05

priced over 7,000 yen it was in high

play00:07

demand take a look at this phone the

play00:09

sleek and attractive Nova Pro which is

play00:12

now dropped to over 4,000 un and

play00:14

features a Kieran chip why is it not

play00:16

selling this is an observation from the

play00:19

owner of a Huawei flagship store since

play00:22

April of this year smartphone sales have

play00:24

plummeted drastically and even Huawei

play00:26

phones which were previously marketed

play00:28

with a patriotic appeal are now

play00:30

struggling to

play00:33

sell the situation looks bad earlier

play00:36

this year before April we couldn't even

play00:38

get phones priced over

play00:40

7,000 now even at 5,500 they're not

play00:44

selling I'm really confused about what

play00:46

went wrong it's clear now why people

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prefer Apple phones Huawei phones lose

play00:51

value fast I finally understand what it

play00:53

means to buy high and sell low phone

play00:56

prices go up with demand but when prices

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drop no one wants

play01:00

kind of like what's happening in real

play01:01

estate basically if you have Huawei

play01:04

phones that are losing value sell them

play01:07

quickly on July 14 the secondhand phone

play01:10

dealer and blogger free Mine Tech Yen

play01:13

mentioned that huawei's situation has

play01:15

deteriorated significantly recently with

play01:18

the mate 60 Pros market price plummeting

play01:20

severely he recently reported on social

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media that Huawei is facing significant

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Market challenges particularly with a

play01:27

Huawei mate 60 Pro the the value of this

play01:30

model has dropped by 1,000 to 2,000 in

play01:33

just over a month once highly sought

play01:35

after at the end of last year with

play01:37

prices even exceeding market value the

play01:40

current situation paints a starkly

play01:41

different picture now it seems there's

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little Demand with recycling prices

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falling from around 6,000 yen to just

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over 4,000 unen this downward trend is

play01:50

consistent across all Huawei brands with

play01:53

prices depreciating rapidly over the

play01:55

past couple of months another tech

play01:57

blogger highlighted that the price of

play01:59

the Huawei Pura 70 Ultra is also on the

play02:02

Steep decline originally priced at

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99,999 a figure that many found

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excessive it has since dropped

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considerably the speed and magnitude of

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huawei's price reductions have outpaced

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those of other top tier Flagship phones

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in fact Huawei situation is not an

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isolated case recent data reveals that

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the domestic smartphone market has

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plunged by

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32.9% whether it's high-end Brands like

play02:28

Apple and Samsung or budget friendly

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options like xiaomi phones across the

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board are struggling to sell in China

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currently fewer Chinese consumers are

play02:37

willing to spend on smartphones due to

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tightening budgets this reluctance to

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spend has led to unsold Huawei mate 60

play02:45

and Apple iPhone 15 models forcing them

play02:48

to cut prices this phenomenon was

play02:50

unprecedented in the past during

play02:53

pre-sale of Apple iPhone 14 consumers

play02:56

eagerly awaited and often had to wait

play02:58

months for a popular model however with

play03:01

the release of the Huawei mate 60 and

play03:04

Apple iPhone 15 even though consumers

play03:07

are interested they're not willing to

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pay contributing to a cold spell in the

play03:11

smartphone industry in

play03:13

2024 the ongoing downturn in the

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smartphone market has now extended to

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South Korea Samsung a major player in

play03:21

the Chinese market in 2013 Samsung was

play03:25

the largest Android smartphone supplier

play03:27

in China with its market share peaking

play03:29

at 20 % however since 2018 the company's

play03:33

sales in China have been on a decline

play03:35

due to the country's economic downturn

play03:37

and weak domestic demand although recent

play03:40

reports indicate that Samsung still

play03:42

holds the top spot in China's smartphone

play03:44

market with a 19% share this is a

play03:47

significant drop compared to its Peak

play03:50

Performance in recent years Samsung has

play03:52

closed several production facilities in

play03:54

China including smartphone and computer

play03:57

factories relocating operations to

play03:59

countries like India and Vietnam this

play04:02

shift resulted in significant layoffs

play04:05

affecting China's economy despite these

play04:07

changes Samsung has not completely

play04:09

exited the Chinese market and continues

play04:12

to operate some business

play04:14

activities however in late August

play04:16

Samsung announced further plans for

play04:18

layoffs and business adjustments

play04:20

signaling ongoing challenges for the

play04:22

company in

play04:25

China Samsung is starting to lay off

play04:27

employees again which isn't a positive

play04:30

sign at its ke Samsung had over 60,000

play04:33

employees in China but now that number

play04:36

is down to fewer than 20,000 if their

play04:38

smartphone business is struggling it's

play04:40

noteworthy that Samsung still leads

play04:43

globally in smartphone shipments this

play04:44

year so why the layoffs in China is it

play04:48

due to the sluggish Market is Samsung

play04:50

considering exiting the Chinese market

play04:53

according to a September 4th report by

play04:55

the so economic daily Samsung

play04:57

Electronics plans to cut 8% of its

play04:59

Chinese sales department staff about 130

play05:02

people the layoffs are attributed to

play05:05

intensified competition and economic

play05:07

downturn which have weakened domestic

play05:09

demand and made the company's future in

play05:11

China more uncertain the company is

play05:14

implementing extreme restructuring

play05:16

measures to ensure

play05:17

survival however some online

play05:19

commentators suggest there might be

play05:21

other reasons behind these layoffs one

play05:23

commentator

play05:25

mentioned analyzing the reasons for

play05:28

Samsung's layoffs reveal is a deeper

play05:30

warning firstly it's argued that Samsung

play05:33

survival is challenged by Fierce

play05:35

competition from Chinese domestic Brands

play05:38

leading to poor sales the data shows

play05:40

that Samsung's overall industry sales

play05:43

are on an upward Trend as a conglomerate

play05:46

Samsung is not solely dependent on its

play05:48

mobile business so despite the impact on

play05:50

its smartphone division it won't face

play05:52

severe issues Samsung sales in China

play05:56

have consistently ranked among the top

play05:58

making it an exaggeration to claim they

play06:00

are outperformed by domestic Brands

play06:03

another aspect is China's environment

play06:05

Samsung is annually recognized as the

play06:08

most socially responsible foreign

play06:09

Enterprise in China yet this is rarely

play06:12

reported in the media this lack of

play06:14

coverage reflects a broader Trend in

play06:16

Chinese media which often avoids

play06:18

positive stories about foreign companies

play06:21

including Tesla and

play06:23

BMW despite building numerous factories

play06:25

creating jobs and contributing taxes

play06:28

foreign companies of received little

play06:30

credit with China's economic downturn

play06:32

it's expected that the trend of foreign

play06:34

companies gradually leaving China will

play06:37

become more

play06:38

frequent currently industry sources

play06:40

suggest that Samsung Electronics China

play06:43

has issued restructuring notices to

play06:44

sales department employees and is

play06:47

accepting voluntary resignation

play06:49

applications essentially signaling that

play06:51

layoffs are imminent an Insider from

play06:54

Samsung revealed to the media that this

play06:56

round of layoffs is just the beginning

play06:58

with an ant anticipated reduction of up

play07:00

to 30% by next year the primary reason

play07:04

Remains the poor sales of Samsung

play07:05

products in China such as smart TVs and

play07:08

phones Samsung China responded that the

play07:11

layoffs are part of necessary business

play07:13

adjustments and Personnel optimization

play07:16

to improve organizational efficiency and

play07:18

Market competitiveness the company

play07:20

confirmed the speculation that it plans

play07:22

to reduce its sales department staff in

play07:24

China by 30% by

play07:26

2025 for many Samsung employees this

play07:30

news is shocking but given the current

play07:32

economic conditions in China it was

play07:34

somewhat

play07:35

anticipated according to data released

play07:37

by The National Bureau of Statistics on

play07:39

September 9th China's Consumer Price

play07:41

Index CPI in August grew by 0.6% year

play07:45

on-ear slightly below the 0.7% forecast

play07:49

by reuter's analysts the increase was

play07:52

primarily driven by adverse weather

play07:54

pushing up food prices which forced

play07:56

consumers to spend more on Essentials

play07:59

rather than on Revival in domestic

play08:01

demand excluding volatile food and

play08:03

energy costs the core Consumer Price

play08:05

Index Rose by only

play08:07

0.33% the lowest level since March 2021

play08:11

indicating that overall demand in the

play08:13

Chinese market remains weak in fact

play08:16

recent sales data of moon cakes in the

play08:18

Chinese market reveals a concerning

play08:20

Trend traditionally during the festive

play08:22

season in China consumers would buy moon

play08:25

cakes in large quantities driven by the

play08:27

festive atmosphere however the moon cake

play08:30

Market has recently shown an unusual

play08:32

pattern a business owner who sells

play08:34

mid-autumn Festival gift boxes

play08:38

said this year has been the toughest in

play08:41

the past 5 years I'm not sure if other

play08:43

business owners feel the same let's look

play08:46

at it from the customers perspective for

play08:48

instance people who bought moon cakes

play08:50

last year or in previous years may not

play08:52

need them this year or they've cut back

play08:54

on spending larger clients tend to show

play08:57

this shift more than smaller clients

play09:00

corporate customers like hospitals

play09:01

training institutions 4S shops insurance

play09:04

companies and real estate firms

play09:06

typically buy moon cakes but this year

play09:09

some aren't planning to give mid- Autumn

play09:11

gifts at all While others are still

play09:13

giving moon cakes but deducting the cost

play09:15

from employees paychecks so a 100 yen

play09:19

gift box from last year is now being

play09:21

replaced with one worth just 35 to 40

play09:24

Yen similarly the white wine market is

play09:27

also facing a sharp decline luo laao a

play09:30

renowned Chinese liquor brand known for

play09:32

its guiao 1537 liquor hailed as a living

play09:36

cultural Relic and a standard gray

play09:38

Chinese liquor however it too is

play09:40

experiencing significant sales issues

play09:43

this year the company became the worst

play09:45

performer among white wine producers

play09:48

according to reports from September 8th

play09:50

luo Leo jao's stock price has dropped

play09:53

over 36% far surpassing the declines of

play09:56

other liquor companies such as mulai

play09:58

Wulan

play10:00

ifu on September 5th its stock price hit

play10:03

a new low for the year with its market

play10:06

value plummeting from over 450 billion

play10:09

un 3 years ago to around 160 billion un

play10:12

now the primary reason for this drastic

play10:15

drop is a significant slowdown in

play10:18

performance it's not just luo Lao Jiao

play10:21

the entire Chinese white wine sector is

play10:23

in Decline mulai China's leading white

play10:26

liquor brand is also seeing a price drop

play10:28

as of September 5th the wholesale price

play10:31

of a bottle of fettia M Thai is 2,610

play10:35

Yen down 10 Yen from the previous day

play10:39

typically the approach of the mid-autumn

play10:40

festival boosts traditional white liquor

play10:43

sales however this year the market for

play10:45

top tier Liquors including various

play10:48

multiproducts has not experienced the

play10:50

usual price hikes or demand surges

play10:53

instead prices have been fluctuating

play10:55

recently with no significant Rebound in

play10:57

market demand one distributor commented

play11:01

that this year's mid-autumn Market is

play11:03

experiencing the coldest liquor prices

play11:05

in the past decade several industry

play11:08

analysts believe that the main issue for

play11:10

the white wine sector is insufficient

play11:12

purchasing power as the supply of

play11:14

Premium liquers increases their scarcity

play11:17

decreases and if demand growth lags

play11:20

price pressures will continue to rise

play11:22

the real Market consumption has dropped

play11:24

even more sharply than production

play11:27

according to financial news in 20 23 the

play11:30

white wine production capacity was 6.3

play11:33

million tons only 46% of that in

play11:36

2016 from 2019 to 2023 China's white

play11:41

wine production capacity decreased by

play11:43

about 20% meanwhile the total inventory

play11:46

of 20 listed white wine companies on the

play11:48

aare market reached 133 billion un and

play11:52

149 billion in 2022 and 2023

play11:56

respectively compared to just 91 billion

play11:59

Y in

play12:00

2019 a Chinese commentator noted that

play12:03

this situation is quite normal as these

play12:05

high-end liquor Brands aren't typically

play12:07

consumed by the average person when

play12:09

ordinary people buy this liquor it's

play12:11

more for the status symbol than for

play12:13

drinking despite heavy promotion sales

play12:16

are bound to decline because any bottle

play12:18

priced under 500 Y is bound to give you

play12:21

a headache most regular consumers prefer

play12:23

cheaper bulk liquor which they believe

play12:25

is better than these expensive Brands

play12:28

given this the commentator questioned

play12:30

how these Brands could expect their

play12:31

sales to

play12:32

increase Michelle Lamb a greater China

play12:35

Economist as Society General believes

play12:37

that deflationary pressures on China are

play12:40

becoming more entrenched which could

play12:42

lead to a spiral of falling prices and

play12:44

wages she warns that more aggressive

play12:46

policy measures are needed to address

play12:48

the situation despite attempts by the

play12:51

Chinese authorities to obscure the full

play12:53

extent of the economic downturn official

play12:55

data still paints a bleak picture with

play12:57

prolonged weakness in the real estate

play12:59

market high unemployment mounting local

play13:02

debt and escalating trade tensions

play13:04

China's economy has struggled to gain

play13:06

momentum in the second half of the year

play13:09

the sharp decline across various

play13:10

Industries has attracted significant

play13:12

International attention in August

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China's core inflation rate increased by

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just

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0.3% marking the 18th consecutive month

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that inflation has stayed below 1%

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Bloomberg noted the surprising speed at

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which China's price Outlook is

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deteriorating

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Bloomberg forecast that due to weak

play13:31

wages and demand the price decline in

play13:33

China is expected to continue into

play13:36

2025 analysts at BMP parabus Echo this

play13:39

sentiment predicting that China's GDP

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deflator an important measure of

play13:44

economic price changes will continue its

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downward Trend into

play13:48

2025 this could Mark the longest period

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of deflation since China began recording

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data in 1993 the GDP deflator is a

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broader economic price measure and using

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the this data provides a clearer picture

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of China's economic

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situation the persistent downturn in

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China's real estate sector now in its

play14:06

third year has stifled domestic demand

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while intense competition in

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manufacturing has driven prices down

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even further despite efforts by Chinese

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officials to suppress discussions about

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deflation and warnings to analysts to

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avoid using such data the issue has

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entered public

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discourse former Chinese Central Bank

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Governor y gang acknowledged the growing

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threat of deflation on September 6

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stating that eradicating it should be a

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top priority for policy makers this rare

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admission highlights the seriousness of

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falling prices on China's economic

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Outlook and ye stressed the need for

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Urgent action to alleviate deflationary

play14:45

pressures similarly Morgan Stanley's

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Chief China Economist Robin Shing

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highlighted the severity of China's

play14:52

economic deflation stating we are

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definitely in deflation and probably

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going through the second stage of

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deflation experience from Japan suggests

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that the longer deflation drags on the

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more stimulus China will eventually need

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to break the debt deflation challenge

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China now faces the risk that deflation

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could snowball with wages declining

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households are cutting back on spending

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and delaying purchases in anticipation

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for further price drops this reduces

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business Revenue dampens investment and

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leads to more layoffs eventually causing

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bankruptcies among both families and

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companies surveys show that this

play15:30

situation is already unfolding according

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to an August survey by kaien Insight

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group in business Big Data primary wages

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in favored economic sectors such as

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electric vehicle manufacturing and

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renewable energy have fallen by nearly

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10% from their peak in

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2022 a survey by the Chun Kong Graduate

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School of Business also found that labor

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cost growth last month was the weakest

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since April

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2020 deflation expectations are

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spreading in the market leading to a

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rebound in bonds which has pushed yields

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to record lows and highlighted concerns

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over Banks being overly exposed to

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interest rate risks to stimulate the

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market The People's Bank of China has

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lowered the required Reserve ratio

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multiple times and has proposed further

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reductions its monetary policy

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Department director Zan believes that

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the effects of earlier reductions are

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still showing with the average deposit

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Reserve ratio at about 7% indicating

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further room for cuts however American

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Economist Dave Wong disagrees he

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believes that with a reserve ratio

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already at 7% and historically low at 8%

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or above future reductions will be

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limited Wong argues that this measure

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will not resolve China's current

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economic problems and considers the

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official stance as merely a placebo as

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China's economy continues to decline in

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numerous businesses go bankrupt the

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decreasing value of real estate often

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used as primary collateral has resulted

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in Surge of bad loans and non-performing

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assets with deposit Reserve ratios

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reaching low levels many banks are now

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at risk not only of bankruptcy but also

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of being unable to redeem deposits

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highlighting systemic risks consequently

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the central banks actions are viewed

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more as psychological reassurance than

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as meaningful solutions to the

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underlying economic problems critics

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argue that the Chinese Communist Party

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stimulus measures have failed to address

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the root cause of the economic downturn

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the Govern government's focus on

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investment has increased fiscal burdens

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and worsened overcapacity meanwhile the

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CCP has avoided confronting the deeper

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issues such as authoritarian politics

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stifling market growth widespread

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corruption and the loss of public

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confidence in the government observers

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believe that the party's reluctance to

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use its wealth to support the economy

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and its disregard for long-term economic

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health are key reasons why China's

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economic Outlook continues to worsen

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