Elon Musk on how to build the future interview with Sam Altman
Summary
TLDR在这次访谈中,埃隆·马斯克分享了他对人工智能、遗传学、人脑与AI的高带宽接口等未来重要问题的看法。他认为,如果有人从事对社会有用的工作,即使不是改变世界,也是好事。马斯克强调了AI对人类未来的影响,以及我们需要确保AI的良好发展。他还提到了通过改善人脑接口来解决带宽限制的重要性,并分享了他年轻时的抱负和如何产生巨大影响的经验。此外,马斯克对SpaceX和Tesla的未来展望,以及他对火星殖民计划的乐观态度也在节目中得到了讨论。
Takeaways
- 🚀 伊隆·马斯克认为,如果有人从事对社会有用的工作,即使不改变世界,也是好事。
- 🤖 他认为人工智能(AI)是短期内最有可能影响人类未来的最大问题,我们需要确保AI的良好发展。
- 🧬 马斯克将遗传学视为第二重要的问题,如果能解决遗传疾病,如痴呆症或阿尔茨海默症,将是非常了不起的。
- 🧠 他强调提高人脑与数字世界接口的带宽非常重要,这将有助于解决当前的带宽限制问题。
- 🌟 马斯克并不期望自己会涉足所有他年轻时考虑的领域,包括使生命多行星化、加速向可持续能源的转变、互联网以及遗传学和AI。
- 🎓 对于想要成为下一个马斯克的年轻有为的人来说,他建议不必非要获得博士学位,而是要找到能够产生巨大影响的事情去做。
- 📈 他强调评估成功率和影响范围的重要性,以及技术进步需要人们努力工作。
- 👽 马斯克确信建立一个自给自足的火星殖民地是可能的,并且可能在未来10年内实现。
- 🛰️ 他相信,通过SpaceX的努力,人类有可能在未来9年左右登陆火星。
- 🤖 对于AI的未来,马斯克认为最好的结果是实现AI技术的民主化,确保没有单一公司或少数人控制先进的AI技术。
- 🔋 他在SpaceX和Tesla的时间主要花在工程和设计上,特别是开发下一代产品和改进工厂的生产效率。
Q & A
如果Elon Musk今天22岁,他会关注哪五个问题?
-Elon Musk认为,如果有人做的事情对社会有用,那就是好事。但如果他今天是22岁,他认为最重要的五个问题可能是:1. 人工智能(AI)的发展,确保AI有一个良好的未来;2. 遗传学,解决遗传疾病,如痴呆症或阿尔茨海默症;3. 人脑与数字世界的高带宽接口;4. 使生命多行星化;5. 加速向可持续能源的过渡。
Elon Musk如何看待人工智能的未来?
-Elon Musk认为人工智能是短期内最有可能影响人类未来的最大单一项目。他强调我们需要确保AI的发展走向良好,因为它可能会出错。他提倡AI技术的民主化,确保没有单一公司或少数人控制先进的AI技术,并且需要解决人脑与数字世界的高带宽接口问题。
Elon Musk对于想要成为下一个Elon Musk的年轻人有什么建议?
-Elon Musk建议年轻人首先考虑他们能做什么对社会有用的事情。他强调不需要改变世界,只要能为人们带来价值,哪怕是小的价值,也是好的。他还提到,年轻人应该考虑他们想创造的东西与现状相比的效用差异,以及它会影响多少人。
Elon Musk在大学时期考虑的五件事是什么?
-Elon Musk在大学时期考虑的五件事是:使生命多行星化、加速向可持续能源的过渡、互联网的发展、遗传学以及人工智能。
Elon Musk是如何决定创立SpaceX的?
-Elon Musk决定创立SpaceX是因为他相信如果没有什么改变,人类将永远被困在地球上。他认为大型航天公司对根本性的创新没有兴趣,只是想要稍微改进他们的旧技术。他认为技术只有当聪明的人非常努力地工作时才会变得更好。
Elon Musk如何看待技术进步?
-Elon Musk认为技术不会自动变得更好,它只有在聪明的人非常努力工作时才会进步。他还提到,历史上的许多文明都曾经拥有先进的技术,但随着时间的推移,他们忘记了如何建造金字塔、阅读象形文字、建造道路和水渠等。
Elon Musk如何面对恐惧和他人的质疑?
-Elon Musk承认他也会感受到恐惧,但当某件事足够重要,他对其信念足够坚定时,他会不顾一切恐惧去做。他还提到,接受可能性可以在一定程度上减少恐惧,他创立SpaceX时认为成功的可能性不到10%,但他接受了这一点。
Elon Musk对火星殖民的可能性有何看法?
-Elon Musk认为火星殖民的可能性非常好。他确信建立一个自给自足的火星殖民地是可能的,而且他认为在大约10年内,或者可能更短的时间内,就能实现将大量人员送上火星。
Elon Musk如何分配他的工作时间?
-Elon Musk的大部分时间都分配给了SpaceX和Tesla的工程和设计工作。他还每周花半天时间在OpenAI,并对OpenAI的发展和团队的才能感到印象深刻。
Elon Musk在SpaceX和Tesla的工作重点是什么?
-在SpaceX,Elon Musk的工作重点是改进Falcon 9火箭和Dragon飞船,并开发火星殖民架构。在Tesla,他的工作重点是Model 3的设计和工程,以及工厂的工程,因为他认为制造机器的机器,即工厂,比车辆本身更重要。
Elon Musk对于自动化生产线的看法是什么?
-Elon Musk认为自动化生产线的速度非常重要。他认为当前的生产速度非常慢,平均速度大约是每秒0.05米,他相信他们能够将速度提高到至少每秒1米,这将是一个20倍的增长。
OpenAI的使命和结构是怎样的?
-OpenAI是一个501c3非盈利组织,它的使命是最小化未来存在性风险。尽管许多非盈利组织可能没有紧迫感,但OpenAI因为有共同的使命和信念,所以有很强的紧迫感。
Outlines
🚀 未来展望与重要问题
Elon Musk在访谈中分享了他对未来的看法以及人们应该关注的重要问题。他认为,如果一个人所做的工作对社会有用,那就是好事。即使不是改变世界的重大创新,只要对人们有价值,哪怕是小游戏或照片分享的微小改进,只要对大量人有益,也是值得的。Musk强调,人工智能(AI)是短期内最有可能影响人类未来的最大问题,我们需要确保AI的良好发展。此外,他还提到了遗传学的重要性,以及提高人脑与数字世界接口带宽的必要性。对于想要成为下一个Elon Musk的年轻人,他建议关注如何做出实际贡献,而不是单纯追求博士学位。
🌟 如何做出影响力
Elon Musk讨论了如何评估一个人或项目的影响力。他认为,即使影响的是一小部分人,但只要能带来巨大的变化,就是非常有价值的。他以SpaceX为例,说明了即使面临巨大的风险和不确定性,他仍然决定投身于这个项目,因为他相信使人类成为多行星物种的重要性。Musk强调,技术进步并非自动发生,需要人们不懈努力。他还提到了文明的兴衰,强调了人类应该不断推动技术发展的重要性。
🌌 火星殖民与AI的未来
Elon Musk分享了他对火星殖民的看法,表示他确信建立一个自给自足的火星殖民地是可能的,并且可能在未来10年内实现。他强调了SpaceX的重要性,并表示他不会在首次发射时前往火星。Musk还讨论了他对AI未来的展望,认为民主化AI技术是最佳选择,以避免任何个人或小团体控制强大的AI技术。他提倡通过提高人脑与数字接口的带宽,实现人类与AI的融合,成为AI-人类共生体。
🔧 每日工作与OpenAI的发展
Elon Musk描述了他日常的工作分配,主要集中在SpaceX和Tesla的工程和设计工作上,同时也在OpenAI上投入时间。他强调了自己对工程细节的深入了解,并分享了他对工厂自动化和生产效率的看法。Musk提到,他对OpenAI的发展感到满意,认为团队非常有才华,并且对公司的非营利性质和紧迫感表示赞赏。他还讨论了OpenAI的目标,即最小化未来存在风险,并表示他们正在寻找更多优秀的人才加入。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡未来展望
💡人工智能
💡遗传学
💡大脑接口
💡火星殖民
💡特斯拉
💡SpaceX
💡OpenAI
💡工程与设计
💡神经连接
💡自动化
Highlights
如果有人今天22岁,Elon Musk认为最重要的五个问题之一是人工智能(AI)的发展,因为它对人类的未来影响巨大。
Elon Musk强调,AI的发展必须是积极的,因为如果发展不当,可能会带来严重后果。
Musk认为,如果能够解决遗传疾病,如痴呆症或阿尔茨海默症,将是非常了不起的成就。
他提到,提高人脑与数字世界接口的带宽非常重要,这将有助于解决当前的带宽限制问题。
Elon Musk分享了自己年轻时的五个关注点,包括使生命多行星化、加速向可持续能源的过渡、互联网的发展、遗传学和人工智能。
Musk在大学时原本计划通过电动汽车的电气化来开始他的职业生涯,但后来转向互联网行业。
他强调,技术的进步并非自动发生,而是需要聪明人的努力工作。
Elon Musk认为,即使是一件小事,只要对大量人有积极影响,就是有价值的。
他提到,即使在面对恐惧时,如果某件事足够重要,人们应该勇往直前。
Musk认为,AI技术的发展应该是民主化的,不应该集中在少数公司或个人手中。
他预测,通过民主化AI技术和提高人脑接口带宽,人类可以与AI形成共生关系,这是最好的未来结果。
Elon Musk确信,建立一个自给自足的火星殖民地是可能的,并且可能在10年内实现。
他分享了自己在SpaceX和Tesla的时间分配,大部分时间都花在工程和设计上。
Musk认为,制造机器的机器(即工厂)比最终产品本身更重要,这是他今年的一个重大领悟。
他有信心将生产线的速度提高到至少每秒一米,这将是一个20倍的增长。
Elon Musk在创建SpaceX时接受了失败的可能性,但希望即使失败也能为未来的探索做出贡献。
他提到,特斯拉Model 3的设计和工厂工程是他目前的工作重点。
Musk认为,对于想要产生影响的年轻人来说,关键是找到能够产生积极影响的事情,而不一定非要改变世界。
他强调,OpenAI作为一个非盈利组织,拥有紧迫感和高水平的人才,并且正在努力减少未来存在风险。
Transcripts
today we have Elon Musk Elon thank you
for joining us yeah thanks for having me
so we want to spend the time today
talking about uh
your view of the future and what people
should work on so to start off could you
tell us you famously said when you were
younger there were five problems that
you thought were most important for you
to work on
um if you were 22 today what would the
five problems that you would think about
working on B uh well first of all I
think
um if somebody is doing something that
is useful to the rest of society I think
that's a good thing like it doesn't have
to change the world like you know
um if you're doing something that has
high value to people
um and frankly even if it's something if
it's like
um just a little game or
you know the some improvement in photo
sharing or something if it if it has a
small amount of good uh for a large
number of people
um that's I mean I think that's that's
fine like stuff doesn't need to be
changed the world just to be good
um
uh but you know in terms of things that
I think uh most likely to affect the the
future of humanity I think
um AI is probably the single biggest
item in the near term that's likely to
affect uh Humanity so it's very
important that we have the Advent of AI
uh in
a good way that that is something that
um
if you if you could look at the crystal
ball and and see the future you would
like you would like that outcome
um
because it is something that could go
um could go wrong
um as we've talked about many times
um and so we really need to make sure it
goes right
um
that's that's I think AI working on AI
and making sure it's
great future that's that's the most
important thing I think right now
um the most pressing item SEC uh then
um obviously I think it's to do with
with genetics if you can actually solve
um genetic diseases
um if you can prevent Dementia or
Alzheimer's or something like that that
oxygenic reprogramming that would be
wonderful so I think this genetics
it might be the sort of second most
important item I think
um
having a high bandwidth interface to the
brain like um we're currently bandwidth
limited we we have a digital tertiary
self uh in the form of our email
capabilities like computers phones
applications uh we're effectively
superhuman but we're extremely bad with
constraint in that interface between the
cortex and your sort of that the
tertiary digital form of yourself and
helping solve that bandwidth constraint
uh would would be I think very important
for the future as well so uh one of the
I think most common
questions I I hear young people at
ambitious young people ask is I want to
be the next Elon Musk how do I do that
um
obviously the next Elon Musk will work
on very different things than than you
did but what have you done or what did
you do when you were younger that you
think sort of set you up to have a big
impact
well I think first of all I should say
that I did not expect to be involved in
all these things so the
the the the the five things that I
thought about at the time in in college
quite a long time ago uh 25 years ago
um
you know being you know making life
multi-planetary
um selling accelerating the transition
to sustainable energy
um the the internet broadly speaking
um
and and then genetics and AI I think um
I didn't expect to be involved in in all
of those things I actually at the time
in college I sort of thought
um helping with electrification of cars
was how I would start out and that's uh
that's actually what I worked on as an
intern was
um Advanced Ultra capacitors with to see
if they they would be a breakthrough
relative to batteries for energy storage
in cars and then when I came out to go
to Stanford um that's what I was going
to be doing my grad studies on is um I
was working on Advanced uh energy
storage Technologies for electric cars
and then I put that on hold to
start an Internet company in 95 because
um that there does seem to be like a
time for particular Technologies when
they're at a steep point in the
inflection Cove and um and I didn't want
to
you know to appears to Stanford and then
and what should all happen
um and then and I wasn't entirely
certain that the technology I'd be
working on would actually succeed
um like you can get you can get a you
know Doctrine on many things that
ultimately are not do not have a
practical bearing on the world
um and I wanted to you know just I
really was just trying to be useful
that's the optimization it was like what
what can I do that would actually be
useful do you think people that want to
be useful today should get phds
um mostly not
someone what is the best way some yes
but mostly not
um how should someone figure out how
they can be most useful whatever this
thing is that you're trying to create
what would what would be the
um utility Delta compared to the current
state of the art times how many people
it would affect
so that's why I think um having
something that has a that's that has a
makes makes a big difference but affects
a sort of small to moderate number of
people is great as is something that
makes even a small difference but but
affects a vast number of people like the
area yeah under you know yeah exactly
the under area under the curve is would
actually be roughly similar for those
two things so it's actually really about
um uh yeah just trying to be useful and
matter when you're trying to estimate
probability of success so this thing
will be really useful good area under
the curve uh I guess to use the example
of SpaceX
when you made the go decision that you
were actually going to do that this was
kind of a very crazy thing at the time
very crazy for sure yeah I'm not sure
about saying that um but I kind of agree
I agreed with them that it was quite
crazy crazy if
um if if the objective was
um to achieve the um best risk adjusted
return studying Rock company is insane
um but that was not that was not my
objective I I I tend to come to the
conclusion
um that if something didn't happen to
improve Rock technology would be stuck
on Earth forever
um and um and the big aerospace
companies
had just had no interest in radical
Innovation
um all they wanted to do was try to make
their old technology slightly better
every year and in fact
um sometimes it would actually get worse
um and particularly in Rockets it's
pretty bad like the in in 69 we were
able to go to the Moon with a Saturn V
and then the space shuttle could only
take people to low earth orbit and then
the space shuttle retired I mean that
trend is basically Trends to zero it um
if people sometimes think technology
just automatically gets better every
year but it actually doesn't it only
gets better if smart people work work
like crazy to make it better that's how
any technology actually gets better
and
by itself technology if people don't
work and it actually will decline
um I mean you can look and look at the
history of civilizations many
civilizations and look at say
um ancient Egypt were they able to build
these incredible pyramids and then they
basically forgot how to build permits
um and um and then even hieroglyphics
they've forgot how to read hieroglyphics
or you look at Rome and how they're able
to put to build these incredible
roadways and aqueducts and indoor
plumbing and they forgot how to do all
of those things
um
and there are many such examples in
history
um so I I think um Choice bear in mind
uh
that you know
entropy is not on your side yeah
one thing I really like about you is you
are unusually fearless and willing to go
in the face of other people telling you
something is crazy and I know a lot of
pretty crazy people you still stand out
uh where does that come from or how do
you think about making a decision when
everyone tells you this is a crazy idea
or where do you get the internal
strength to do that
well first of all I'd say I actually
think I I think I feel feel fear quite
strongly
um so it's not as though
I just have the absence of fear I feel
quite strongly
um but there were just times when
something is important enough you
believe in it enough that you do you do
it in spite of fear
So speaking of important things like
people shouldn't think I I I I should
people should think well I feel fear
about this and therefore I shouldn't do
it
um it's normal to be to feel fear like
you'd have to definitely something
mentally wrong if you didn't feel Fair
um
so you just feel it and let the
importance of it drive you to do it
anyway yeah you know actually something
that can be helpful is fatalism at some
degree
um if you just if just accept the
probabilities
um then that diminishes fear
so
um my starting SpaceX I thought the odds
of success were less than 10 percent
um and I just accepted that actually
probably I would just lose lose
everything
um
but that maybe would make some progress
if we could just move the ball forward
even if we died Maybe
some other company could pick up the
Baton and move and keep moving it
forward so we'll still do some good
um yeah same with Tesla I thought the
odds of a car company succeeding were
extremely low what do you think the odds
of the Mars colony are at this point
today
well um
oddly enough I actually think they're
pretty good
um so like when can I go okay
um
at this point I am certain there is a
way I'm certain that success is one of
the possible outcomes for establishing a
self-sustaining mosquolina growing Moss
Colony I'm certain that that is possible
whereas until maybe a few years ago I
was not sure that success was even one
of the possible outcomes
it's a meaningful number of people going
to Mars I think this is
potentially something that can be
accomplished in about 10 years
um maybe sooner maybe nine years
um
I need to make sure that SpaceX doesn't
die between now and then and that I
don't die or if I do die that someone
takes over who will continue that
you shouldn't go on the first launch
yeah exactly
um the first launch will be robotic
anyway so I want to go except for the
internet latency
yeah the internet latency would be
pretty significant um
Mars is roughly 12 light minutes from
the Sun and Earth is eight light minutes
so our closest approach Mars is four
light minutes away at first approaches
20. a little more because you have to
you can't sort of talk directly through
the Sun
speaking of uh really important problems
um AI so you have been outspoken about
AI um could you talk about what you
think the positive future for air looks
like and how we get there
okay I mean I do want to emphasize that
um this is not really
something that I advocate or or this is
not
prescriptive this is simply for
hopefully predictive
um because people some say like well
like like this is something that I want
to occur instead of so something I think
that
probably is the best
of the available Alternatives
um
the best of the available alternatives
that I can come up with and maybe
somebody else can come up with a better
approach a better outcome is that we
achieve democratization of AI technology
meaning that no one company or
a small set of individuals has control
over Advanced AI technology I think that
that's very dangerous
it could also get stolen by somebody bad
you know like some evil dictator or
country could send their intelligence
agency to go steal it and gain control
it just becomes a very unstable
situation I think if you've got any
um
any incredibly powerful AI
um
you just don't know who's who's going to
control that so it's not as I think that
the risk is that the AI would develop a
will of its own right off the bat I
think it's more that's the concern is
that some someone
um may use it in a way that is bad
um or or and even if they weren't going
to use it in a way that's bad that
somebody could take it from them and use
it in a way that's bad
that that I think is quite a big danger
so I think we must have democratization
of AI technology and make it widely
available
um and that's you know the reason that
obviously uh uh you mean the rest of the
team uh you know created openai
um was to help uh with the Democracy
help help spread out AI technology so it
doesn't get concentrated in the hands of
a few
um and but then of course that needs to
be
um combined with
solving the high bandwidth interface to
the cortex
um
humans are so slow humans are so slow
yes exactly
um but you know we already have a
situation in our brain where we've got
the cortex and limbic system
and the limbic system is kind of the I
mean that's the primitive brain it's
kind of like the urine your instincts
and
um whatnot
and then the cortex is the thinking of a
part of the brain those two seem to work
together quite well
um occasionally your cortex and limbic
system May disagree but they it
definitely works pretty well generally
works pretty well and it's like rare to
find someone who I've not found someone
who wishes to either get rid of their
cortex or get rid of their lovic system
very true yeah it's that's unusual so so
I think if if we can effectively
uh um merge with uh AI like
um improving that uh the the neural link
between your cortex and the
the your digital extension yourself
which already like I said already exists
just has a bandwidth issue
um and then then effectively
um you become an AI human symbiote
um and and if that then is widespread
with
anyone who wants it can have it uh then
we solve the control problem as well we
don't have to worry about
um some sort of evil dictator AI because
kind of we are the AI collectively
that seems like the best outcome I can
think of
so you've seen other companies in their
early days that start small and get
really successful
um hope I know we're asking this on
camera but how do you think open AI is
going as a six-month-old company
it seems to go pretty well I think we've
got a really talented group at open Ai
and yeah really really talented team and
they're working hard
um open eye is structured as uh see a
501c3 non-profit
um but you know many non-profits uh do
not have a sense of urgency it's fine
they don't have to have a sense of
urgency
um
but open AI does
um because I think people really believe
in the mission I think it's important
um and it's it's about minimizing
um the risk of existential harm
um in the future
and uh so I think it's going well I'm
pretty impressed with what people are
doing in the talent level and obviously
we're always looking for
um great people to join close to 40
people knots yeah well uh all right just
a few more questions before we we wrap
up how do you spend your days now
like what what do you allocate most of
your time to my time is mostly split uh
what's between SpaceX and and Tesla and
of course I I try to spend um
uh
it's a part of every week at open AI
um so I spend most I spend
basically half a day at open AI most
weeks and then
and then I have some openai stuff that
happens during the week
but other than that it's really
interesting SpaceX or Tesla like what
does your time look like there
uh yeah so that's a good question um I
think a lot of people think I must spend
a lot of time with media or or on
businessy things but actually almost uh
almost all my time like 80 of it is
spent on engineering and design
engineering and design so it's
um developing Next Generation product
at that's 80 of it
um You probably don't remember this a
very long time ago many many years you
took me on a tour of SpaceX and the most
impressive thing was that you knew every
detail of the rocket and every piece of
engineering that went into it and I
don't think many people get that about
you yeah I think a lot of people think
I'm kind of a business person or
something which is fine like business is
fine but um like I uh but really it's
you know it was like it's SpaceX uh Gwen
Shotwell is Chief Operating Officer she
kind of manages
um uh legal Finance
um sales
um and kind of General business activity
and then my time is almost entirely with
the engineering team working on
improving uh the Falcon 9 and the dragon
spacecraft and developing the Moss
Colonial architecture
and that at Tesla it's working on the
model 3 and uh
yes I'm in the design studio typically
yeah
um have a day a week
um
dealing with Aesthetics and and uh look
and feel things and and then most the
rest of the week is just going through
engineering of of the car itself as well
as engineering of the the factory
um because the the biggest Epiphany I've
had thus this year
is that uh what really matters is the is
the machine that builds the machine the
factory
um and this that is at least towards
magnitude hotter than the vehicle itself
it's amazing to watch the robots go here
and these cars just happen
yeah now this actually is a has a
relatively low level of automation
compared to what the gigafactory will
have and what model 3 will have what's
the speed on the line of these cars
actually average speed of the line is
incredibly slow it's probably about
um including both X and S
um it's maybe uh five you know five
centimeters
um per second and what can you do this
is very slow or what would you like to
get to
I'm confident we can get to to at least
one meter per second so 20-fold increase
that would be very fast yeah
um at least I mean I think quite a one
meter per second just put that in
perspective is is a slow walk or like a
medium speed walk a fast walk would be
uh one and a half meters per second
and um
and then the fastest humans can run over
10 meters per second
so if we're only doing 0.05 meters per
second that's very slow current current
speed and and at one meter per second
you can still walk faster than the
production line
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