Zakaria says Trump’s rise is not a fluke, and there’s one critical issue behind it
Summary
TLDRThe script explores the United States' ability to control inflation without causing a recession, a rare achievement lauded by experts like Jerome Powell and Alan Blinder. Despite this economic success, the Democratic Party struggles to capitalize on it in the polls, with Donald Trump maintaining a competitive position. The narrative expands to Europe, highlighting the rise of right-wing populism in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, driven primarily by concerns over immigration. The persistence of populism, fueled by a backlash against globalism and elite liberalism, signals its continued relevance on the political landscape.
Takeaways
- 😇 Bismarck's quote about America's good fortune reflects a global perception of the country's ability to overcome challenges.
- 🌟 The US is currently achieving a rare economic feat: reducing inflation rapidly without causing a deep recession.
- 📉 Alan Blinder notes that historically, the US has managed a 'soft landing' like this only once in the past 60 years.
- 🏆 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is praised for his policy balance during challenging economic times.
- 🚀 Despite economic success, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining the expected political advantage.
- 📊 Polls show that Donald Trump is still favored over Kamala Harris for handling the economy, even if by a reduced margin.
- 🔄 Rising inequality, a long-standing issue, has recently shown signs of abating.
- 🗳️ The upcoming election is not expected to be decided based on economic issues, but rather on other factors.
- 🌍 The rise of right-wing populism in Germany and other Western countries is a significant political trend.
- 🛂 Immigration politics is a key factor in the rise of populist parties, as seen in Germany and the Netherlands.
Q & A
Who is Otto von Bismarck and what is his reputed statement about the United States?
-Otto von Bismarck was a great German statesman. He is reputed to have said that God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America, suggesting that the country has an uncanny ability to fare well despite challenges.
What does the term 'soft landing' refer to in the context of the US economy?
-In the context of the US economy, 'soft landing' refers to a situation where inflation is reduced significantly and rapidly without causing a deep recession, which is considered a challenging economic feat.
How often has the United States achieved a soft landing according to Alan Blinder?
-Alan Blinder, the former Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman, points out that using strict definitions, the United States has achieved a soft landing only once before in the past 60 years.
What is Jerome Powell's role in the context of the US economy's current state?
-Jerome Powell is the chairman of the Federal Reserve. He is credited with getting the balance of policy right through treacherous times, which has contributed to the US economy's current state of low inflation and low unemployment.
What are some of the positive economic indicators mentioned for the US economy?
-The US economy currently has low inflation, low unemployment, a boom in manufacturing, and dominance in technologies of the future like AI and gene editing.
Why might the incumbent Democrats not be benefiting as expected from the US economy's good fortune?
-Despite the US economy's positive indicators, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining the expected advantage, possibly due to other factors such as political polarization and the influence of right-wing populism.
Who leads in the polls when it comes to handling the economy, and how does this compare to previous elections?
-In most polls, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris on the question of who would better handle the economy, though by less than he led Joe Biden. This is in contrast to the standings of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden at similar points in their races against Trump.
What is the significance of the rise of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD)?
-The rise of the AfD is significant as it indicates a shift in German politics, with the party poised to become the second political party after the center-right CDU. This rise is largely attributed to the politics of immigration.
How have centrist parties in Denmark managed to curb the appeal of the populist right?
-Centrist parties in Denmark have adopted a very tough line on immigration and assimilation, which has been effective in curbing the appeal of the populist right and keeping it at bay.
What strategy did the center-right party of Donald Tusk use in Poland to counter the populist right?
-The center-right party of Donald Tusk fought its election in Poland not on immigration but over the future of democracy and its membership in the European Union, focusing on popular positions within the country.
Why is right-wing populism considered a significant and enduring force in politics?
-Right-wing populism is considered significant and enduring because it is fueled by a deep backlash against the economic, political, and cultural openness of the last few decades, and the urban elites it spawned, as seen in various countries including the United States.
Outlines
🌟 Economic Fortune and Political Challenges in the U.S.
This paragraph discusses the United States' seemingly miraculous economic performance, including low inflation and unemployment, a manufacturing boom, and advancements in AI and gene editing, despite rising inequality. It questions whether the incumbent Democrats can capitalize on this prosperity. The script references historical economic data, noting that the U.S. has rarely achieved a soft landing like the current one. It also highlights the Federal Reserve's role, particularly Jerome Powell's, in navigating these challenges. The paragraph contrasts the economic success with the Democrats' lack of electoral advantage, suggesting that the upcoming election will be influenced more by issues like immigration and the rise of right-wing populism than economic performance.
🌍 The Global Rise of Right-Wing Populism
The second paragraph expands on the theme of right-wing populism, noting its global reach and impact on traditional political parties. It points out that even countries like Turkey and India have seen leaders align with anti-liberal, cosmopolitan sentiments. The paragraph specifically calls out the Republican Party's shift away from figures like George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, indicating a significant change in the party's identity. It suggests that Trump's influence, whether he wins or loses, will persist, as right-wing populism is deeply rooted in a backlash against recent decades of economic, political, and cultural openness. The paragraph concludes by directing viewers to a Washington Post column for further reading on this topic.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Providence
💡Inflation
💡Soft landing
💡Right-wing populism
💡Alternative for Germany (AfD)
💡Immigration
💡Kamala Harris
💡Donald Trump
💡Economic inequality
💡European Union
Highlights
Bismarck's reputed quote about America's special providence captures a global sentiment.
The United States is achieving a rare economic feat: reducing inflation without a deep recession.
Alan Blinder notes the U.S. has only achieved a soft landing once in the past 60 years.
Jerome Powell's policy balance is praised for navigating treacherous economic times.
The U.S. economy currently enjoys low inflation, low unemployment, and a manufacturing boom.
Technological advancements in AI and gene editing contribute to America's economic dominance.
Rising inequality, a long-standing issue, has recently shown signs of abating.
Despite economic successes, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining expected political advantages.
Polls show Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris on economic handling, despite a narrow margin.
The political race remains tied, with Harris's standing lagging behind past Democratic candidates.
Trump's potential to outperform current polling is a wildcard due to historical polling errors.
The election is not primarily about economics, contrary to popular belief.
The rise of right-wing populism in Germany challenges the traditional political landscape.
The AfD's success is largely attributed to the politics of immigration.
Mainstream parties risk being outflanked by populist right on immigration issues.
Centrist parties in Denmark have successfully combated populism with tough immigration policies.
In Poland, the center-right party focused on democracy and EU membership to counter populism.
Immigration remains a core concern for U.S. voters, as per Wall Street Journal polls.
Kamala Harris has effectively countered some of Trump's appeal on immigration issues.
The Trump phenomenon and right-wing populism are not fleeting; they reflect a deep societal backlash.
Right-wing populism is a global trend, evident in Europe, Turkey, India, and the Republican Party's shift.
Transcripts
The great German statesman
Otto von
Bismarck is reputed
to have once said
that God
has a special providence
for fools, drunkards,
and the United States of America.
He might never have actually said that,
but it captures
the sense
that many around
the world have at America's
continuing ability
to surprise on the upside.
In the words
of a businessman friend of mine.
But it remains unclear as to
whether the incumbent party,
the Democrats, will be able to benefit
from this good fortune.
The latest evidence
for its special providence
is that the United States appears
to be doing the near-impossible,
getting inflation down far and fast
without triggering a deep recession.
The former Federal Reserve
Vice-Chairman, Alan
Blinder, points out
that using strict definitions,
the United States has been able
to achieve such a soft landing
only once before in the past 60 years.
In recent remarks, Jerome Powell,
the chairman of the fed, has all
but declared victory
and he deserves considerable praise
for getting the balance of policy
about right
through some very treacherous times.
The US economy
currently has low inflation,
low unemployment,
a boom in manufacturing and dominance
and technologies of the future
like AI and gene editing.
Even rising inequality,
which has soared for
decades, has recently abated.
And yet,
these factors are
not giving the incumbent Democrats
the advantage one might have expected.
In most polls, Donald Trump
continues to lead Kamala
Harris on the question
of who would better handle
the economy, though by less
than he led Joe Biden.
More broadly,
the race remains virtually tied.
While Harris had improved on
Biden's disastrous standing,
her standing in the race, both
nationally and in swing states
lags behind where Hillary Clinton and Joe
Biden stood at this point
in their races against Trump.
When you consider that Trump
could do better than he is
in current polling,
which happened due
to polling errors in both 2016 and 2020,
the race remains a toss up.
In the end, as I've pointed out,
this election will not be
fought over economics.
The most recent reminder
of the political mood in
the Western world comes from Germany.
For many years,
even as right wing
populism surged elsewhere,
it did not take hold in Germany
until the last year or so.
The small right
wing populist party,
the alternative for Germany,
remained marginalized.
But it now looks
neither small
nor likely to be marginalized
for much longer.
It won one recent German state election,
a first for a far right party
since the Nazi era came a very close
second in another state
and is vying for the top spot
in a third state.
It looks poised
to become Germany's
second political party
after the center right CDU.
As with many right wing populist parties,
the AfD
rise can be largely
credited to the politics of immigration.
The story is a familiar one,
as long as mainstream political parties
turn a blind eye
to the seismic shifts
taking place relating to immigration.
They are in danger of being outflanked
by the populist right.
In the Netherlands, Gerhard Filters
has also gone
from being an extremist firebrand
with whom few would ally
to the leading political player
and kingmaker
in the recent Dutch elections.
There are strategies
to blunt the populist right's appeal.
In Denmark,
the centrist parties
have adopted
a very tough line
on immigration and assimilation.
Tough enough to be criticized
by many mainstream politicians.
But the result has been
that populism,
which flared up in past elections,
seems at bay in that country, and Poland.
The center right party of Donald Tusk
fought its election not on immigration,
but over the future of democracy
in Poland
and its membership in the European Union.
Both popular positions in that country.
In the United States, immigration remains
a core concern,
and Wall Street Journal polls.
It was either close to the top
or at the very top of voters concerns.
Both nationally and in swing states.
Kamala Harris has been able
to effectively
blunt some of Trump's appeal
on this issue by pointing out
that he squashed
a tough border protection bill,
mostly written by Republicans.
But she may need to do more.
Many commentators believe
that the Trump
phenomenon is a fluke, fueled
by his celebrity
and almost cult like following.
Some of that is true,
but right wing populism
isn't going anywhere.
Fueled as
it is by a deep backlash
against the economic,
political and cultural openness
of the last few decades
and the urban elites it spawned.
Look at Europe.
Look even at countries
like Turkey and India,
where leaders have allied themselves
with those opposed
to liberal, cosmopolitan elites.
Look at the Republican Party,
which now has no home for people
like George W Bush, Mitt
Romney, Liz
Cheney, Paul Ryan,
and even Mitch McConnell.
Leaders who once defined the party
Trump could win.
But even if he loses, his movement
and right wing populism are here to stay.
Go to
cnn.com/fareed, for
a link to my Washington
Post column this week.
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