Zakaria says Trump’s rise is not a fluke, and there’s one critical issue behind it

Summary

The script explores the United States' ability to control inflation without causing a recession, a rare achievement lauded by experts like Jerome Powell and Alan Blinder. Despite this economic success, the Democratic Party struggles to capitalize on it in the polls, with Donald Trump maintaining a competitive position. The narrative expands to Europe, highlighting the rise of right-wing populism in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, driven primarily by concerns over immigration. The persistence of populism, fueled by a backlash against globalism and elite liberalism, signals its continued relevance on the political landscape.

Takeaways

• 😇 Bismarck's quote about America's good fortune reflects a global perception of the country's ability to overcome challenges.
• 🌟 The US is currently achieving a rare economic feat: reducing inflation rapidly without causing a deep recession.
• 📉 Alan Blinder notes that historically, the US has managed a 'soft landing' like this only once in the past 60 years.
• 🏆 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is praised for his policy balance during challenging economic times.
• 🚀 Despite economic success, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining the expected political advantage.
• 📊 Polls show that Donald Trump is still favored over Kamala Harris for handling the economy, even if by a reduced margin.
• 🔄 Rising inequality, a long-standing issue, has recently shown signs of abating.
• 🗳️ The upcoming election is not expected to be decided based on economic issues, but rather on other factors.
• 🌍 The rise of right-wing populism in Germany and other Western countries is a significant political trend.
• 🛂 Immigration politics is a key factor in the rise of populist parties, as seen in Germany and the Netherlands.

Q & A

Who is Otto von Bismarck and what is his reputed statement about the United States?

Otto von Bismarck was a great German statesman. He is reputed to have said that God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America, suggesting that the country has an uncanny ability to fare well despite challenges.

What does the term 'soft landing' refer to in the context of the US economy?

In the context of the US economy, 'soft landing' refers to a situation where inflation is reduced significantly and rapidly without causing a deep recession, which is considered a challenging economic feat.

How often has the United States achieved a soft landing according to Alan Blinder?

Alan Blinder, the former Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman, points out that using strict definitions, the United States has achieved a soft landing only once before in the past 60 years.

What is Jerome Powell's role in the context of the US economy's current state?

Jerome Powell is the chairman of the Federal Reserve. He is credited with getting the balance of policy right through treacherous times, which has contributed to the US economy's current state of low inflation and low unemployment.

What are some of the positive economic indicators mentioned for the US economy?

The US economy currently has low inflation, low unemployment, a boom in manufacturing, and dominance in technologies of the future like AI and gene editing.

Why might the incumbent Democrats not be benefiting as expected from the US economy's good fortune?

Despite the US economy's positive indicators, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining the expected advantage, possibly due to other factors such as political polarization and the influence of right-wing populism.

Who leads in the polls when it comes to handling the economy, and how does this compare to previous elections?

In most polls, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris on the question of who would better handle the economy, though by less than he led Joe Biden. This is in contrast to the standings of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden at similar points in their races against Trump.

What is the significance of the rise of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD)?

The rise of the AfD is significant as it indicates a shift in German politics, with the party poised to become the second political party after the center-right CDU. This rise is largely attributed to the politics of immigration.

How have centrist parties in Denmark managed to curb the appeal of the populist right?

Centrist parties in Denmark have adopted a very tough line on immigration and assimilation, which has been effective in curbing the appeal of the populist right and keeping it at bay.

What strategy did the center-right party of Donald Tusk use in Poland to counter the populist right?

The center-right party of Donald Tusk fought its election in Poland not on immigration but over the future of democracy and its membership in the European Union, focusing on popular positions within the country.

Why is right-wing populism considered a significant and enduring force in politics?

Right-wing populism is considered significant and enduring because it is fueled by a deep backlash against the economic, political, and cultural openness of the last few decades, and the urban elites it spawned, as seen in various countries including the United States.