Master Price Action From The Best! - Al Brooks | Trader Interview

Summary

本视频邀请了交易大师Al Brooks，他分享了如何在股票市场中赚钱的一分钟课程。Al强调了跟随趋势、理解价格行为的重要性，并讨论了市场波动的逻辑。他提到，尽管市场有时会波动不定，但长期来看，市场总是向上的。Al还提到了比特币和其他加密货币，他认为比特币的参与度不够机构化，且存在被政府监管的风险。他建议交易者应该专注于图表模式和理性交易，而不是被市场的短期波动所迷惑。

Takeaways

• 📈 股市长期趋势向上，即使经历回调和横盘，最终总会创新高。
• 🚀 比特币市场相对不够机构化，风险较高，可能受政府政策影响较大。
• 💡 交易时应关注图表模式和价格行为，而非仅依赖新闻报道。
• 📊 市场在寻找公允价值时，往往会在一定价格区间内上下波动。
• 🛠️ 交易者应学会识别市场趋势的反转信号，如双底、楔形底部等。
• 📉 在市场下跌时，机构投资者可能会买入，因为他们认为市场被低估。
• 📈 市场上涨时，机构投资者可能会卖出，因为他们认为市场过热。
• 📊 市场行为可以通过图表模式来预测，这些模式在不同市场中具有普遍性。
• 🤖 高频交易和算法交易增加了市场的波动性，导致市场出现锯齿形走势。
• 💰 长期持有股票指数基金或ETF，对于年轻人来说是一种稳健的投资策略。
• 📌 交易者应该避免受到电视上所谓‘专家’意见的影响，而应基于自己的分析做出决策。

Q & A

如何理解市场中的价格行为？

价格行为是通过分析市场的价格走势和交易量等数据来预测未来价格变动的一种技术。它基于市场参与者的行为模式，认为这些模式会在未来重复出现。

为什么说长期持有股票指数基金是几乎肯定能赚钱的策略？

长期持有股票指数基金之所以被认为是几乎肯定能赚钱的策略，是因为历史数据显示，随着世界人口的增长和生产力的提升，股市总体呈上升趋势。即使市场会有短期波动，但长期来看，基本面的增长会推动股价上涨。

交易者如何在市场中最大化利润？

交易者可以通过选择合适的时间框架来最大化利润。例如，日内交易者在5分钟或15分钟图表上交易可能会比在日线图表上交易获得更高的回报率。关键在于找到适合自己的交易风格和时间框架，并掌握图表阅读技巧。

如何识别市场趋势的反转？

市场趋势的反转可以通过图表模式和买入信号来识别。例如，双底、楔形底部或强烈的向上突破等模式，以及连续的大阳线收盘在高位等买入信号，都可能预示着趋势的反转。

为什么说电视上的财经专家的意见不应被完全依赖？

电视上的财经专家的意见不应被完全依赖，因为他们的目的是吸引观众和广告商，而不是直接帮助交易者赚钱。此外，他们提供的建议往往缺乏具体的交易管理细节，如入场和退出的时间点，因此交易者应以娱乐的心态看待这些节目。

什么是熊市和牛市？

熊市是指市场价格持续下跌的市场环境，通常伴随着一系列更低的高点和低点。牛市则是指市场价格持续上涨的环境，特征是一系列更高的高点和低点。

如何理解市场中的恐慌性抛售？

市场中的恐慌性抛售通常发生在价格快速下跌时，交易者出于对未来价格进一步下跌的恐惧而急忙卖出。这种情绪化的交易行为可能导致市场出现过度反应，从而创造出潜在的买入机会。

为什么比特币的价格波动如此剧烈？

比特币的价格波动剧烈主要是因为它相对于传统金融市场而言，是一个较新且高度投机的资产。此外，比特币市场受到较少的监管，且参与者结构相对分散，包括大量的散户投资者，这些都可能导致价格波动加剧。

如何判断市场是否处于平衡状态？

市场处于平衡状态时，买卖双方的力量大致相等，价格不会持续单向移动。在平衡状态下，市场可能会在一定价格区间内震荡，直到某些基本面因素发生变化，导致市场参与者对价格公平值的共识发生改变。

为什么说交易比特币感觉不够成熟？

交易比特币可能给人一种不成熟的感觉，因为它相对于传统的金融资产而言，更具有投机性质。此外，比特币市场的波动性大、监管不确定性高，以及与犯罪活动的关联，都可能让一些交易者感到它更像是一种玩具，而不是一个成熟的投资工具。

Outlines

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Keywords

💡股票市场

股票市场是指股票买卖交易的场所，是金融市场的重要组成部分。在视频中，股票市场被提及为一个可以通过学习和应用价格行为策略来获利的场所。

💡价格行为

价格行为是指市场价格变动的模式和趋势，它可以帮助交易者预测市场的未来走势。视频中强调了通过理解和分析价格行为，交易者可以更好地把握交易时机。

💡趋势

趋势是指市场价格在一段时间内持续上升或下降的方向。在视频中，趋势的概念被用来描述市场的整体动向，并用以指导交易决策。

💡交易策略

交易策略是指交易者为了实现盈利目标而制定的一系列规则和方法。视频中讨论了多种交易策略，包括长期持有和短期交易等。

💡技术分析

技术分析是一种通过研究历史价格和交易量数据来预测未来市场走势的方法。视频中的专家通过技术分析来解释市场行为和预测市场趋势。

💡市场心理

市场心理是指影响交易者决策的心理因素，包括恐慌、贪婪和其他情绪。视频中提到市场心理对价格波动有重要影响。

💡机构投资者

机构投资者是指那些拥有大量资金并在市场上进行交易的组织，如养老基金、保险公司和投资基金。视频中提到机构投资者对市场价格行为有重大影响。

💡市场波动

市场波动是指价格在短时间内的快速变动，通常由市场新闻、经济数据发布或交易者情绪变化引起。视频中讨论了市场波动对交易策略的影响。

💡交易时间框架

交易时间框架是指交易者用来做出买卖决策的时间尺度，可以是几分钟、几小时、几天甚至几年。视频中提到不同时间框架下的交易策略和市场行为。

💡市场基本面

市场基本面是指影响资产价格的基本经济因素，如公司盈利、行业状况和宏观经济指标。视频中提到，尽管市场波动可能受到多种因素的影响，但最终市场价格将反映其基本面。

Highlights

一分钟教你如何在股市赚钱

Al Brooks是价格行为的大师，拥有数十年的市场经验

市场自2020年疫情崩溃以来经历了巨大的反弹

交易者愿意在平均价格以上买入，20个周期的指数移动平均线是衡量平均价格的一种方式

Al Brooks预测股市可能会在未来三到五年内横盘

股市长期看涨，但可能会有回调和横盘的阶段

Al Brooks的朋友通过在市场下跌10%时买入并长期持有，成为了非常富有的人

短线交易者比长线持有者能获得更高的回报

交易者应该学会读懂图表，而不是仅仅依赖新闻报道

Al Brooks认为比特币更像是一种泡沫，而不是像黄金那样的价值存储

比特币的交易模式开始类似于纳斯达克股票，但比特币面临更多监管风险

Al Brooks更愿意交易股票和期货，因为它们风险更低，潜在回报更高

市场在寻找公平价值时往往会在交易范围内波动

市场的趋势转换通常伴随着明确的图表模式或强烈的突破

Al Brooks的交易课程网站提供了系统化和精确的交易方法

Transcripts

i can teach anyone to make money in the

stock market and i can teach them in one

minute okay and here we go here's the

one minute lesson on how to definitely

make money in the stock market

welcome back everyone today we're

sitting down once again with our brooks

al is a master when it comes to price

action been in the market for a

many many decades so a lot of years in

the market of course uh good to talk to

you again today al good to discuss price

action again see how you are doing and

kind of catch up on we discussed last

time so we'll come back in the podcast

once again thank you very much again

it's always good to hear from you i hope

you're doing well definitely definitely

so we'll have to catch up and kind of

see what happens since last time we

spoke i believe it was around

a year ago or some kind of close to that

aspect and i believe we're talking about

the the rise of bitcoin the rise of

cryptocurrencies and how that impacted

price action now what we've seen in the

past let's say

month two months or so was the uh kind

of like a crash of the markets in

general the s p been going down the

american market has been going down

quite a lot tell me kind of what that

means for price action these days and

kind of what you see is changing in the

market compared to a few months back all

right well this is a monthly chart of

the s p

cash index and

we had an incredible rally this is the

pandemic crash that we had

in 2020 and then we had a very big rally

after that

and when we were going up here everybody

knew there would be some profit taking

at some point we had been above the

moving average for 20 bars more than 20

bars

and

traders are willing to pay above an

average price a 20 bar exponential

moving average is one measure of what is

average and traders have been eager to

buy

at an above average price for a long

time

so you'd expect when they're finally

able to pay an average price they'd be

very eager to to do it so i was pretty

confident that

whatever reversal we got would not go

down all that far

and i thought there'd be buyers around

the moving average and we broke below it

a couple months ago we broke bullet last

month

and then in july we rallied back up to

it

so i don't think there's much left to

the correction you know can we get below

this low i think so can we get down here

the pre-pandemic high around 3300

and i think maybe a 30 chance

i've been saying

for a few years that at some point in

the next three to five years the stock

market would go sideways for about a

decade

and i still think that's true

and it's simply because that's what the

market typically does

let me see if i can

go back here

in the 90s we had a very big rally and a

40 50 correction another 56 correction

and the market was sideways for a decade

after a very big rally

back in the 50s and 60s we had a very

big rally

and then we were sideways for a decade

we had several corrections 30 40 percent

and i think what we're doing now is

a similar thing we're

going far

high far higher in price than what is

justified by the fundamentals

and it will take about a decade for the

fundamentals to get caught up with the

price

is this the final high

probably not anybody looking to pick a

high and a bold friend is making a

mistake

is this the final high is this the final

high which of these is the final high

you know chances are in a bold trend

you're not going to know the final high

until a long time afterwards so i still

think this is not the final high

but i believe that the market is going

to be doing this over the next decade

and what's the reason well the reason is

technological

this is accelerating at a parabolic

wedge by climax and when it does that

you get profit takers and the market

goes sideways for a long time

so i think we'll probably get one more

new high maybe we'll get up to 5000

maybe a little bit more but at some

point in the next few years it'll be

comparable to this

and will be mostly sideways for about a

decade

i want to say one other thing

i don't have a yearly chart

but if this was a yearly chart

going back 100 years you'd see that

the market has gone pretty much straight

up

it crashed in 1929 and it lost 89

percent of its value back in 1929

and i don't know if i go back to 1929

here i don't think so

and 89

loss is obviously

a huge loss

and on the daily chart there was a very

protracted bear trend that lasted four

years a bear trend is a series of more

highs and lower lows

a bear market

is a market that sold off 20 percent

from the high

and this is the monthly chart we've had

lots of bear markets where it fell more

than 20 percent

here here here

and we've had a bear trend here a series

of lower lows and lower highs and a bear

trend here

but this is not a bare trend on the

monthly chart we don't really have lower

highs and lower lows yet so it's a bear

market

and i'm taking a a

a long way around to talking about the

yearly chart

which i i don't have the yearly chart

the yearly chart of the stock market has

never been in a bare trend

it has never had a series of lower highs

and lower lows even though it lost 90

percent of its value in the crash in

1929 it was just a four-bar pullback in

a bold trend that had began with

the beginning of all markets thousands

and thousands of years ago

so um

you know the market is constant it's

always going to go higher

it may pull back for a few years it may

go sideways for a decade but it's always

going to go higher

and this is a lead up to me

um teaching everybody how to make money

in the stock market virtually guaranteed

99 chance i can teach anyone to make

money in the stock market and i can

teach them in one minute

okay and here we go here's the one

minute

lesson on how to

definitely make money in the stock

market

if you're a 30 year old person or a 20

year old person

um a 40 year old person

and you can

buy

a stock index fund some kind of mutual

fund or etf that mirrors the stock

market and hold it for 20 or 30 years

you're definitely going to make money

trading stocks

right your debt because that's always

been the case for thousands of years the

world's population has increased

productivity per person has increased

and

it's going to be increasing for the rest

of your life at some point the

population will stop increasing

but that's not going to be in your

lifetime

so absolute guarantee

if you buy

a

fund that mirrors the stock market and

you hold it for 20 or 30 years for

example in your retirement account

you're going to make money

and you just leave it there and you

don't panic out during

36 percent crashes here you don't panic

out during 56 percent crashes here i

have a friend

and

i'll call him um

forest

and

i never thought he was particularly

bright

and i've i've known him since college

he is a lawyer

and all throughout his life

anytime he had leftover cash he'd uh

save it

until the stock market fell 10

and then he'd put all of that cash into

the stock market and he did this for 40

years

and even though he's not a particularly

bright guy

you know he's extremely rich

you know because for 40 years all of his

cash has been putting in the stock

market

every time the market drops 10 percent

i

talked with him back here early in the

pandemic when the market was down 10

and he said

al i just i had a bunch of cash i just

bought the stock market and i said

forest you know i'm using forest as his

name as in forest gump

i said forrest

why are you buying the stock market when

it's collapsing you could probably buy

it down 20 or 30 percent

and he said

al i don't care

all my life every time the market is

down 10 i take all my cash

and i buy more stock and i hold it

and

he's right you know so he bought here

and even though we sold off

23 here

he still made a lot of money on his new

cash and then

he started trading

back in the 70s

i don't even have it on the screen

back here

so back there the stock market was

around

200

and the stock market is now

4 000

so he made 20 times his original money

and so

if you want to make money if

anybody can make money in the stock

market if they buy and hold now

with that in mind

can you make more money

if you

buy on a smaller time frame chart and

get in and get out yeah somebody trading

a daily short a fast monday trader

is going to make more money than

somebody

this is the daily chart

he'll buy he'll make more money than

someone who just keeps putting all of

his money in a retirement account and

holding it forever this is a daily chart

it's a bear trend we have lower highs we

have lower lows bear trend and now we're

starting to get

higher lows

we have a higher low here some higher

highs

the bulls are hoping this is the start

of a bull trend and it might be i don't

know yet

however a really good trader

a trader who buys here and then sells

there buys here and sells there

is going to make a lot more money on his

on

his account than somebody who buys and

holds for 40 years

okay so somebody trading a daily chart

can make a higher rate of return than

someone trading a

monthly chart

and someone trading

an intraday chart let's say a

five-minute chart

is going to make more money

for example here's the e-mini 5-minute

chart and somebody trading a five-minute

chart

a good trader is going to make more

money than somebody trading a daily

chart

and so how far down can this go

here's a 15-second chart

here every bar is 15 seconds

and theoretically somebody trading a 15

second chart really well

is going to make more money than

somebody trading a five-minute chart

right so there's some sweet spot in here

between trading a yearly chart where you

know you're going to make money

and trading a 15 second or even a five

second chart

where you're going to maximize your

profit

and for most people trading a very small

time frame like a 15 second chart or two

second chart here's a

a two second chart

okay

um you're going to lose money the stuff

happens so fast

you're not going to be able to place

orders quick enough also if you're

scalping you're typically looking for a

profit that is less than the size of the

most recent bar

so

everything will be happening so fast

you're going to lose money

so two seconds is too small

a yearly chart is too big and where's

the sweet spot where can a person make

the most money

if you have the time to be a day trader

trading a five minute chart like this or

a 15-minute chart

like this is really good

once you learn how to read charts you

can make a lot of money

and you don't even have to be all that

bright

okay here's a five minute chart you know

are you going to be selling or are you

going to be buying look at the past

couple days here

you know there's zero reason to sell

right so you buy and you say well now

how do i buy it's just going straight up

well

you can just buy at the market or every

time the market has a bar closing near

its high you just buy on a stop above

the high of the bar and you put a

protective stop below the most recent

level

and you can add to it as it goes up and

you can make a lot of money on a

five-minute chart and you don't have to

be

you don't have to be a genius to do it

but the art is knowing

when a trend is likely to continue

or when it's

likely to reverse

and also if they're optimal

there are all kinds of little patterns

taking place in here

and there's a lot of stuff going on in

here so there are a lot of tricks to it

that can help me make more money the

market's been above the moving average

for about 20 bars place a limit order to

buy at the moving average a lot of bull

bars

you place an order to buy below the low

of the prior bar the first bear bar

closing here it's low you buy the close

of it a bull bar closing near as high

you buy on a stop above it so there's

all kinds of little stuff that you can

learn

that will

help you do pretty well as a trader

i love how we just talk about how the

market's going in the new gym straight

to the charts to how to trade it that

that shows how amazing you want to

trader and how you think about like all

the price section there

that's just that's just crazy but i i

didn't like that stuff so one thing i'm

really curious about is the fact that

you know like when you look at the

the news events or especially the news

like you look at cnn or whatever like

you news channel

they talk about like the crash in the

market right now how the market is

crashing so bad it's like the bull trend

or something but then you look at this

like a price action level that's on a

higher time frame like

showing us a monthly chart and it looks

completely different doesn't look that

bad and that kind of shows why i think

you should not focus just on the news

but most mostly on price action

and it shows that if you just think

about per section then it's like not

actually what you hear on the news it's

different

so how can someone kind of make their

own amount of the chart based on price

action how does that kind of work out

you brought up a few i think interesting

points

let me go to the daily chart and

on television

the purpose of cnn

is not to help you or help me or help

any of the viewers

the purpose of cnn is to help

the shareholders the people who want

stock in the company

and the way they do that is

getting as many eyes

watching the show as possible so they

can charge more for advertising

all right so

cnn is going to do whatever it can

to

make more money get more viewers

and if the market is going down

on tv typically they'll put on one

expert

right

and at any instant there are as many

institutions buying as selling when it's

doing this there might be a few more

buyers but there's still a lot of

sellers when it's doing this there are a

lot of sellers but there's still a lot

of buyers when it's doing this cnn is

going to put on a bear

and that bear they're going to introduce

the bear by saying this guy predicted

the crash

in 2007 right

and as if he's

going to be able to predict every crash

and when it's going down here he's going

to he'll be saying oh the market's going

down to 2000. it's going to go below the

pandemic crash right

and when it's doing this they'll put a

bull on some guys are just always

bullish or always bearish when it's

doing this they'll put a bull on oh the

market's going to go up forever

right and then it does this

never pay attention to

what the experts on tv say because

whenever the market's going down they're

only going to put a bear on and there

are bulls i'm a ball

when the market was down here i said the

market is going to rally for a couple

months and close these two gaps and

probably get up here

which it's doing

on the monthly chart

at the end of last year i said the

market will probably correct for a few

months at some point in the first half

of 2022

and then rally into this into the second

half of the year possibly up to a new

high

and we sold off for six months i said

two or three months it sold off for six

months i said i thought the low would be

about um thirty seven hundred maybe

thirty nine hundred there's a gap here

in the monthly chart

around

30

below 30-900 and i thought that gap

would get filled and the market would go

up

and

so so far it's doing what i expected it

we came down we tested moving average we

closed that gap on the monthly chart and

we're reversing and i think we'll go up

over the second half of the year we may

test down and get some kind of a double

bottom here we had a double bottom here

another double bottom attempt so we may

here down and then down a few months

later so i wouldn't be surprised if we

test back down you know maybe september

or october

but i think the market is going to be

sideways to up for the remainder of the

year

going back to your question about tv

experts i'll put up a daily chart again

when the market's way up here

and the guy on tv says ah it's going

higher buy

right

well he might be right

but should you buy because he says buy

apple daily children of apple so up here

the guy on tv is saying buy the market

apple's great stock warren buffett owns

it it's going up should you buy apple

well

when a guy on tv talks

he's

he's not managing your trade

right he's saying buy apple well he's

right apple will eventually go above

this price

and it might do it over the next few

months right but he's not managing your

trade and when he says apple is a buy

what does he mean by that

does he mean apple is going to be higher

three or four years from now

he might does he mean apple is going to

be higher a month from now

he might but he's not telling you

so when somebody in tv says buy this or

sell that

um

they're not managing your trade what's

their time frame when will they get out

so you should never never never

do anything

that someone on television recommends

right if you bought apple up here and he

was saying apple was going a lot higher

you know what would you have done when

it lost 30 percent

right same with the stock market if uh

if you bought at the top

when the idiot on tv is saying it's

going a lot higher what do you do when

it's down 10 20 23

you know they're not going to manage

your trade tv

has one purpose

one purpose for you

a different purpose for the advertiser

the purpose for the

the television company cnn their purpose

is to make money for the people in stock

your purpose when you're watching tv

and for no matter what show it is is

entertainment you want to feel good

that's the only reason to watch tv

right you don't watch tv to make money

you know

you're not going to make money watching

tv you're going to get entertained so

anything you see on tv

any advice you get on tv

just look at it as as entertainment

you know as i said up here

the heart of the market go down when the

guy on tv said it's going up

because the market is constantly in

balance there there are constantly just

about as many buyers as sellers

and who's selling up here well

institutions who think it's overpriced

who's buying down here institutions who

think it's now cheap right so even when

it's doing this there are institutions

saying wow

this is this is great what an

opportunity to buy and they're buying

but they're not the guys you're seeing

on tv

the they only put the um

the bears on tv when it's going down and

just think about it look at apple what

happened when it went below this low it

went up

what happened below this low it went up

what happened below this low it went

back up above that low below this low it

went up it below this low it went up

if it's so bearish why is it going up

because you got bulls buying at every

new low expecting it to go back above

the prior lows

all right and at some point the bears

stop selling because they see all the

way down

bulls buying at every low are making

money

and if you're a bear

and you're seeing bulls making money at

every new low

aren't you a little concerned you know

something's not right you know here you

are thinking the market's going down

yet people buying every new low are

making money so something's wrong with

this bear trend and it's not just an

apple it's the entire market i've been

talking about this you know since the

market sold off in in january i said

look at this a trader who bought that

low and bought more 50 points lower made

my i traded about this slow what more 50

100 points slower made money so all the

way down

pools are making money

and that ain't right right if the trend

is going to go down a long way

it's going to be really hard for bulls

to make money and it's been easy for

bulls to make i've been buying every

time it makes a new low i've been buying

right i've been making money

so um there's something wrong with this

bear trend and it's not as bearish as

the clown on tv says

so yeah we may get a new low but what's

going to happen if it goes below this

low

al is going to buy a whole bunch of

institutions are going to buy so there

are we know there are a whole bunch of

buyers down here and there may be so

many buyers down here

that if the market sells off

the bulls are so afraid it will not make

a new low they'll start buying above

this low and we'll end up getting a

higher low and then

we'll start converting into a bull trend

and i think that's what's going to

happen i suspect this is probably the

low for the year

and i'm hoping we get a new low

because i want to buy below this level

and i'm not alone there are a whole

bunch of institutions that and you're

not seeing them on television they're

all hoping for a new low because every

time we get a new low

they're making money buying and they

know that's probably going to lead to a

trend reversal at some point and the way

this is accelerating up

there's a pretty good chance

this is

this this will be the low of the year

and that if we come back down maybe to

these lows bulls will start buying

higher lows instead of waiting to buy

below the prior low the bulls will be so

afraid there will no longer be any new

lows they'll start buying above the low

and they'll start getting higher lows

and they will start getting a trend up

again and i think

right now after this week i think that's

probably what's going to happen i think

we've seen the loaf of the year

and we'll work our way up here maybe all

the way up to a new high by the end of

the year

and i'm hoping for a selloff so i can

buy again i'm a trader

so you know

i buy if the market goes up you know for

example i bought down here and

i bought a bunch of different stocks and

when they went up about 10 i took my

profits i did the same here

so every time it goes down i'm looking

if it goes down you know i'm looking to

buy and i'll i'll exit with 10

and you don't have to do that too many

times a year to have a pretty good year

on the daily chart so and i think a lot

of institutions at this point are hoping

it'll go down

now why would an institution buy here

when they could buy a pullback and have

less risk

well the institution buying here

is hoping that they know one of two

things is going to happen

they know either

it's going to keep going up they'll make

money

or it's going to go down

and bulls will buy

aggressively and it'll go back up so an

institution buying here

is hoping it'll go up

but they're willing to buy more if it

comes down here and if it comes down

here they're very confident it'll come

back here

that would allow them to get out break

even on this buy and with a pretty good

profit on this buy

and i think that's the psychology that's

taking place now i think the market is

switching into

a bullish mode traders are buying

confident that anytime it sells off

it'll go back up so

they're hoping it'll be as bullish as

this

big big sell-offs people buy sell-off

buy buy

right i don't think it's going to be as

bullish as this i think it'll probably

be more of a mirror image of this

where it goes up you know five or ten

percent down five or ten percent so i

think the legs up and down will be

bigger

but i think

we're going to work our way up to this

double top maybe up to the

high

so that's a long answer don't listen to

tv except for entertainment

i love that i love that now speaking of

trend reversal how do you know when the

market has reversed going let's say from

a bear trend to a bull trend are there

clear signs that this has happens and

now you can start to look for lungs with

like more certainty or you just have to

keep it low risk and kind of add in

until the trend starts

well both both are acceptable but there

are chart patterns for example here we

had a wedge three three pushes down that

reverse up one two three and we had a

lot of big bull bars closing on or near

their highs that is really aggressive

buying

and so it was reasonable here we have a

double bottom and a higher low

reasonable to buy above that we have a

very strong breakout here three

consecutive bull bars closing on their

highs breaking above a minor lower high

similar to this

and this was a good candidate for

the resumption of the bull trend and a

new high but it failed instead we got a

double top and then a new low

here we have a wedge bottom and a

breakout and a new low

and

it was a really strong attempt at the

bottom

i i was very confident we would try to

get another

bottom here

but this is unusual normally if you have

a major bottom you'll have a very good

buy signal bar you know but you'll get

bars that look like that at the low and

we're not getting that and that's the

one problem with this level the absence

of a really strong bicycle bar

it's a second attempt to reverse the

bulls trying to get a wedge full flag

reversal here it failed and here we have

um two legs down you can call it a lower

low double bottom um i thought we were

going to get a wedge i was hoping for a

wedge a third low didn't get it

and that's the one problem with this

bottom the absence of a

strong bottom talk about the month

weekly chart also

look at this bottom look at that bull

bar look at this bottom look at this

bull bar right typically when you're

getting a major reversal you'll get a

really good looking bicycle bar but look

at this we have a two bar reversal down

and up

this just does not look as certain as

confident as definite as that or this

you know major lows usually have a lot

of big bull bars closing on their highs

and

that's the only thing that reduces

the probability here that the bottom is

in we still might get one more new low

at this point i don't think we are

so one thing you're looking for is a

good buy signal bar and

some kind of a pattern a double bottom

or a wedge bottom like this this bottom

failed

here you get a lower low double bottom

or two reversals up

but no good buy signal bar so one thing

you want a pattern but sometimes you

don't get a good bicycle bar or a clear

pattern and instead you get a series of

bull bars closing on their highs a

breakout so we've got a bare channel and

we're breaking out so if you do not have

a really great bottom

you then look for a strong breakout and

neither one of those things is a reason

to buy here we have a double bottom or

low which is really good

and we have several bull bars closing

near the highs which is really good

so um

this is good it's after the initial low

but it's a high or low major trend

reversal and we're accelerating up here

and again here

so to me i don't know i i would say

there's a 50 50 chance

um that um

we're not going to come back down here

50 50 chance we are going to come down

here and right now maybe a 30 chance we

go below here so probably 70 chance

we've seen the low

um and if we do go below here

um i think they'll be buyers below

so you're either looking for

a good

pattern like

you can call this a double bottom you

can call it a wedge bottom so you're

looking for a good pattern with good buy

signal bars or

you're looking for a strong upside

breakout this was a strong upside

breakout of this bare channel but it

failed and the bulls are trying again

trying to break strongly above this bare

channel so you're looking for a pattern

or a strong breakout

and for the bears opposite

we had a big wedge top one two three

and a strong breakout i don't have a

trend line drawn but we broke strongly

above

strongly below the bare channel then we

had a double top bare flag we broke

below the neckline and we almost reached

to measure move down from this double

top neckline i should move down

and people need to understand this is

something you can apply to any kind of

market as well any market will move

pretty much the same way with some

exceptions of course

you have more gaps in some market less

than other markets but it's still these

principles you talk about when you share

with traders apply to all kinds of

markets well you know if you think about

it everything that's done is by the

institutions they control the markets

it's done based on logic

right any kind of a trade you know if

you and i are trading um you know i give

you an apple you give me an orange you

know we have some kind of logic in our

in our process

and

a chart is just a map a map of the logic

that's taking place

it's

rational human behavior

and it doesn't matter if you and i are

doing a trade for apples and oranges

over the course of one minute or if

we're trading an apartment building in

new york for an apartment building in

singapore and it takes us two years to

do the deal

the same logic applies and if you have a

lot of these trades taking place and you

map them out

you'll get a chart and it might look

like this chart right so it doesn't

matter what the market is it doesn't

matter what the time frame is it's all

based upon rational human behavior

and

that behavior creates patterns those

patterns are present for any market and

on any time frame

so if you're a trader looking at

patterns you don't care what the market

is you know you know

you're going to trade it the same it

doesn't matter if it's bitcoin or crude

oil or apple or an etf it doesn't matter

you're going to look for the same

patterns because you're looking for the

same rational human behavior

and any big market is going to attract a

lot of institutions and they're very

serious about their money and they're

going to be looking for logical ways to

make decisions

so um

you know traders you know when they're

looking at charts they don't care about

the time frame they don't care if it's a

one minute chart or a

one month chart they're going to look

for the same patterns and trade them the

same

you know you're never going to be as

certain as you want

because

the market's always in balance even when

it's going up there are a whole bunch of

sellers thinking it's going up too fast

and even when it's crashing there are a

whole bunch of buyers thinking it's

going down too far too fast so the

market you should always think of the

market as in balance it's always in

balance it's always about the same

number of bulls

and bears and because of that

the probability of making money is never

as high as you want you know you want to

buy and

be 100 certain well no one's going to

sell if they're 100 certain that they're

doing something stupid right so

probabilities for the buyers and the

sellers hover around 50 i always think

of it as a band of between 40 and 60

percent

if you're more than 60 certain of

something you're you're wrong if you're

less than 40 certain of something you're

wrong you should always assume that when

you're trading whether you buy or sell

at any minute

there's a 40 to 60 chance it'll do what

you want and a 40 to 60 chance it'll do

the exact opposite of what you want now

it's interesting you said that because

we often hear that the markets are

irrational that that humans are making

decisions that are not rational in the

market and that that causes price

movement in the market now you're saying

it's actually the opposite institutions

control the market more than investors

or i guess normal people so how would

you explain then the big moves and like

some cryptocurrencies that are not based

on logic but based on just i guess greed

or kind like a bubble aspect how would

that be based on rational emotions the

more institutions are involved with the

market the more they become logical and

rational and the more the training is

done by algorithms computer algorithms

this is the e-mini okay

and

you know you and i and everybody

listening

could buy the market

and the market might move one tick you

know we're tiny the institutions control

95 of the volume in the stock market

and probably 75 percent of the volume is

traded by computer algorithms

and computer algorithms are logical

right their computer computers running

software programs and they just keep

running and running them over and over

again they have a basket of programs and

um

if a certain type of program is working

well and then it's working less well

they'll switch to another type of

program you know the way i think of it

is when the market is doing this the

trend programs are

making a lot of money and the trading

range programs looking for reversals or

not so at some point all the

institutions start to trade trending

programs

and eventually you run out of

people willing to take the other side

and it stops trending and it starts to

go sideways

and the institutions then start to

switch to

trading range programs looking for

reversals and once a certain critical

mass of them

are trading that way there's no one to

take the other side and it goes back to

trending bitcoin is kind of an outlier

because i'm not certain

about how much institutional

participation there is you know bitcoin

it's unclear and a lot of the

institutions are

um

[Music]

how should i say um

i don't trust them you see these guys on

tv called bitcoin whales and they have

billions of dollars in bitcoin

and you know if you're a bitcoin whale

what's your main reason for going on tv

to make money you know you're trying to

influence public opinion so um

you know you're going to say things

to make try to make the market go

whatever direction

your current position is long or short

so um yeah i'm not as confident that

bitcoin is as institutional as it should

be

it's kind of like the the meme stocks

you know amc

um over the past couple of years

um you know if most of the participants

are little guys and a lot of it is

institutional a lot of it is emotional

um

i don't want to trade it because you

tend to get much more abrupt moves

there's a weekly chart of bitcoin

and um there are patterns in here here's

a

small wedge here's a higher high double

top a micro double top a pretty good

reversal down so theoretically it's a

short

and very strong breakout from a treading

range so you buy at any point

if it gets a big bear bar closing there

it's low you can exit below the bar it

did not go below that bar

um it did go below these bars if you get

a wedge top you could exit especially if

you get a bear bar so if you bought

anywhere in here you're going to exit

there um

you know the patterns are going to be

there

but um i'm not as comfortable

buying bitcoin also right now

another problem i have with bitcoin is

um

here's bitcoin

and

here is the

nasdaq

and what do you notice

they kind of look the same bitcoin is

starting to trade like a nasdaq stock

you know i trust the nasdaq and i'm i'm

not worried about big surprises with

government announcements about new regis

legislation that could affect the price

action

so again this is the nasdaq here's

bitcoin

you know the charts look the same

so i'd rather

trade the nasdaq

because i don't have to worry about any

kind of crazy surprise coming from the

government can you trade bitcoin

yeah but why

you know

it mirrors the nasdaq and you don't have

the

risk of some uh

china or europe suddenly announcing one

day that

nothing bitcoin is no longer allowed or

the united states suddenly announcing

that they're going to try to ban bitcoin

and with the united states announcing

that it's coming out with a um a

cryptocurrency its own cryptocurrency

or the united states and the eu

announcing hey

there's so much crime

being conducted with bitcoin in

cryptocurrencies we're going to create

our own international cryptocurrency

there's a a small but real risk of

bitcoin going to zero over the next few

years

and

since it trades like the nasdaq

which has no risk of going to zero

you know i'm going to trade the nasdaq

the weekly chart of bitcoin

and yeah it can go up to

50 000 it can go up to um 70 000 and go

up to half a million

the way some of the bitcoin whales are

saying

and i may trade

at some point like when it's

doing this early in a rally i'll you

know i sometimes will trade a bitcoin or

a bitcoin etf

but um

you know i

since it charts like the nasdaq and has

more risk i'd rather trade the nasdaq or

the e-mini or or stocks or a whole bunch

of stocks that trade the same way you

know here bitcoin it went from seventy

thousand to twenty thousand well a bunch

of stocks did that too

and a lot of the stocks are pretty good

companies here's shopify it went from

180 down to

40. so the percentage drop in shopify is

about the same as the percentage drop in

bitcoin

and if we rally up to this high

you'll make 100 percent

it might take a year to get there but

you'll make 100 in a year

for me there's no um

you're not missing out on anything

if you do not trade

bitcoin

but i understand bitcoin is in the news

and a lot of people view it as kind of a

meme stock type of deal

and get rich quick and now they're

starting to come up with

smaller units you could already buy

tiny units of bitcoin or ethereum or any

of them i i can make more money with

less risk

trading stocks or futures so i'd rather

do that

also do you remember a couple years ago

uh when bitcoin was becoming popular

back in here

this is a weekly chart well they put a

bitcoin

bitcoin weekly chart

a few years ago when bitcoin was

becoming really popular everyone was

talking about it as digital gold

not only is it

going to be the new world's currency

but it's also going to be a store of

value

and then when the market was

doing this and gold is not doing that

people have you heard anybody talk about

digital gold in the past year

and the answer is no

and why are they not talking

right so in other words it was it was

nonsense it was a lie right and you had

all these bitcoin whales on tv oh it's

digital goals it's a store of value

and it's not behaving like gold

so you know it's not it's not digital

gold it was just a stupid lie

here's gold

okay it's not down here the way bitcoin

is down here

so it's not digital gold it has nothing

to do with gold right

so so that argument is gone

and then you get the argument that oh

everybody's going to start transacting

in bitcoin

instead of in uh master and mastercard

and visa

well the the bid ask spread in

coin you know if you're buying you're

going to be paying

quite a bit above the current price if

you're selling you're gonna be selling

quite a bit

to the current price the bid ask spread

is huge so that's not good if you're

doing transactions

and then bitcoin

they can only uh you can only do about

seven transactions a second

and do you have any idea how many

transactions a second visa card or

mastercard can do

thousands and thousands and thousands of

them right

so nobody's going to be buying uh

anything with bitcoin because um you

know you can't do enough transactions so

so it's not

a currency

it's not a store of value

and what it what is it it's a fad

right it's you know it's a get rich

quick type of deal you know

you know you can make a lot of money you

can lose a lot of money it's exciting

it's fun but for me

you know i'm in this to make money

that's all that's that's my goal all i

want to do is make money

and i can make more money trading other

things with less risk

than i can in bitcoin

and one other thing about bitcoin

as you can tell

but one thing about bitcoin is it makes

it easy for crooks to do things

and i don't want to be you know so i

feel dirty participating in it

you know i don't want to be involved in

anything that helps crooks

i know you can argue well if the fbi can

trace bitcoin transactions and get the

money back from the crooks

well

yes

and if somebody does a transaction uh

and steals 100 million dollars or a

billion dollars

the fbi is going to get that money back

right but if they steal 70 000 or 90 000

which happens all the time i'm sure

transacting in bitcoin the fbi is going

to say it's too small we're not going to

bother so it's still pretty easy for

crooks to transact you know fifty

thousand hundred thousand two or three

hundred thousand dollars with impunity

no risk of um

[Music]

being

traced to no risk of having the money

called back by the fbi

so for me it feels dirty and i don't

want to be participating in something

that feels dirty

if it gets cleaned up with legislation

and they get the crooks out of it

and it actually becomes

a currency

then

i'll look to trade it but at that point

it'll be

trading like the euro or the dollar and

i probably will continue to trade the

euro or the dollar instead i don't see

myself

spending a lot of time trading bitcoin

so it's tradable we have a wedge bottom

here three bottoms one two three

and we have a micro double bottom a

second reversal up so it looks like

we're going higher maybe to the 20 week

moving average maybe to this gap and you

know that's about a 50 gain

but you know i can i can do that trading

stocks as well you know i suspect a lot

of people watching this um interview

are trade bitcoin

but for me um i just don't um there's

not enough compelling reason to do it

another thing i don't like is it feels

amateurish it feels like

it's a toy

and um i don't want to be playing with

toys i want to i want to be out there

playing with the adults i have a hard

time

getting excited about bitcoin i honestly

believe i can make more money doing what

i'm doing trading stocks trading futures

so let me apologize to the bitcoin fans

out there you know yes it's tradable and

yes the patterns are the same as with

any other market

but um for me i'd rather

trade betray the other stuff

i think it's a fair answer i think the

live people are in the same situation as

you they don't understand it or they

think it's like it's above all this

thing it's never going to work for

keeping it long-term so they don't trade

it now one thing i'm close to here is

your thoughts on choppy markets like

these markets where you have a bunch of

like wigs bunch of heights and lots of

you would think if institution controls

the market like they just want to go

from point a to point b they want to go

there and move around and trade these

these levels but what caused market to

be choppy going back and forth around

the same level for a long period of time

well it's institutions you know in part

let me go to okay here's a weekly chart

of the emini it's going up and it's in a

very tight channel

um institutions are mostly buying

anytime it tries to go down they're

going to buy

because they know if it's in a tight

channel chances are it's going to go

higher until there's some kind of a

topping pattern

and um

on the daily chart we had

a wedge over here on the monthly chart

we had a micro wedge which is just a

reflection of the daily chart

up and down up and down up and then a

third reversal so a micro wedge as i

said there are always buyers and sellers

and some

there are always slightly more buyers or

slightly more sellers but they're always

going to be buyers and sellers and the

computer algorithms

are based upon logic and testing and

even when it's going down

you have

computer bull programmers buying all the

way down

and

some of them have

very wide stops or to use a bitcoin term

they they're total

uh hold on for dear life

type of deals where they have no stop at

all they just know that eventually it's

going to go up so traders with

institutions with very long time frames

are going to be buying as it goes down

if they're getting a lot of money coming

in and their fund

and they have to invest they have to buy

as it's going down

so um

and it's okay

you know they know eventually it's going

to go up

you know obviously if you're a shorter

term institution if you're

a high frequency trading firm

um you're not going to be buying during

this you're only going to be selling but

there are all kinds of time frames going

on and it's just a question of whether

more dollars are buying than selling

that we go up and down

as far as these this this kind of stuff

a lot of institutions

buy here

hoping that there will be more

institutions buying here

right and at some point

if it stops going up for a day or two a

bar or two or three

a lot of the institutions look at that

and say huh it's changing its behavior

people are no longer buying at the high

and the next bar is no longer another

bull bar

and the the market's changing its

behavior

and the institutions start to sell out

of longs and if it starts to go down

fast enough

not only are institutions selling out of

lungs but a whole bunch of institutions

are shorting betting that will go down

at least a little bit more let me just

show you something about yeah this is

kind of an example um very strong rally

and if you're a bull and you see that

bar you're a little bit disappointed and

you see two more bear bars you're a

little bit more disappointed

and if you bought that closed you might

decide uh if it gets back to that close

maybe i'll exit just in case it goes

lower i can back back lower

and it got to that close again right

here

and did this

so what happened here

what do you think happened there

it's mostly

the bulls who bought here disappointed

by this

exiting so bulls are panicking out and a

whole bunch of them panicked out because

a whole bunch of them decided uh we've

got a wedge top

and now we have a micro double top

we might get a pretty good correction

so this is bulls giving up

and you're getting an increasing number

of beers shorting

opposites true at the bottom

right you got

bearish selling down here

and then

um

it stops going down it stops going down

and the bears who sold

become disappointed by this they hope it

comes back down to this price so they

can exit without a loss it got near it

they held it got near it a second time

and we have a big reversal

the bears are panicking out so the start

of every bull trend is mostly short

covering the start of every bear trend

is mostly

profit taking from the bulls long

liquidation and then as it goes down

more and more traders short as it goes

up more and more traders buy there are

no longer very many bears covering

shorts it's mostly bulls buying i mean

that's alright that's how i look at

charts and i think that i think that's

pretty accurate but i i don't worry

about the wiggles the wiggles you're

talking about

the market was sideways here for a year

no one talks about it they talk about

the market went up and the market went

down well it's really been sideways for

about a year you know for example if we

go back up here which is where i think

we're headed we'll probably get profit

taking and go down

and you know

people are going to say well the

market's been in a trading range

since this no it's been in the trading

range since over here or here we went up

we went down we're going up and i

suspect we'll come back down some point

next year

as far as

the mar the market's looking for fair

value

and it tends to spend a lot of time in

trading ranges because

it raises up to a value that both the

bulls and bears think it's fair

and as it goes down it's cheap the bulls

buy the beer stop selling it goes up

it's expensive the bulls take profits

and the beers start to short and it

tends to oscillate around some price

where the bulls and bears think it's

fair

and then something

happens fundamentally to change the

perception of fairness you know the fed

might start to raise interest rates

and instead of the fair price being up

here it then is down here and the market

goes down to a new fare zone another

trading range

and then you start getting good earnings

and the market decides uh this fair zone

is no longer good

the earnings are really good maybe the

fair price is somewhere up here so it'll

go up to the new fare zone and oscillate

around there for a while until there's

some other really important fundamental

information

that makes traders conclude that the

price is no longer fair and you have to

race up or down to another fair zone

interesting we could go through this

stuff and discuss it for like hours and

hours but i want to respect your time

we've already been like an hour into

this a great knowledge on i'm sure

people are going to notice from this a

lot uh if they want to learn more from

you and you have a course you have a few

books who are just behind you as well so

what would be the next step for people

who want to learn past action why can

they connect with you what can they

reach out to be able to learn from you

the best thing is just go to

brookstradingcourse.com

that's my

primary website i have a chat room

website as well but you can access it

through brookstrainingcourse.com

also i'm merging the chat room

website into

thebrookstradingcourse.com website so

everything will be there

awesome and you do put out a lot of good

work to for traders and you do a lot of

referred to how people get profitable

and use perception correctly so that's

awesome i really appreciate this i know

people who went through your course and

some traders who got good results out of

it they like how like very systematic

and precise it is like they don't have

to think about anything else on their

own

like there's no discretionary it's very

based on like like real space and very

clear so that's good people like atlanta

generals that's awesome i'll leave links

below the description for people to

check it out click these links to see

what you're doing and i'll i hope we can

discuss this in the future again i hope

we can connect again in the future talk

about prospection again

see how you are doing see how things are

moving in the market and of course learn

more from you i think that's been

awesome all right i appreciate it hn

it's always good to talk to you i hope

that your viewers find it useful

awesome i appreciate it and we'll catch

you guys in the next video pretty soon