官场说:李强好棒棒! ~ 我台可能是全网唯一①个尬吹李强的频道

官场
11 Mar 202424:53

Summary

TLDRThis script delves into the tenure of Li Qiang, exploring his rise to the position of Premier and evaluating his performance amidst significant challenges. It contrasts Li's cautious and humble approach with his predecessors, highlighting his unique handling of economic policies, government restructuring, and his relationship with Xi Jinping. The script scrutinizes Li's strategies against the backdrop of economic downturns, addressing his efforts to revitalize the economy, manage government debt, and his stance on state-owned enterprises versus private sector revitalization. It suggests that Li's tenure, while starting under tough circumstances, might be laying the groundwork for significant future impacts.

Takeaways

  • 😀 Li Qiang, described as the weakest Premier in the history of the People's Republic of China, has been assessed one year into his term.
  • 👍 Despite challenges, there are achievements under Li Qiang's leadership such as the introduction of fully foreign-owned enterprises like Tesla, advancements in epidemic prevention, and streamlined administrative services.
  • 😭 Li inherited a range of domestic challenges, including a contracting real estate market, plummeting land finance revenues, and significant local government deficits.
  • 🙏 Li's approach has not significantly deviated from his predecessors', with conservative fiscal policies but no major public sector layoffs as anticipated.
  • 💁‍♂️ Li's leadership style is characterized by humility and a low profile, which appears to align with President Xi Jinping's preferences, contrasting with the more assertive stances of previous Premiers.
  • 🔥 The economic policies during Li's tenure reflect a cautious approach amidst deteriorating economic conditions, with measures to address local government debt and promote economic stability.
  • 💵 Li introduced significant financial interventions, such as a one trillion yuan special government bond issuance to support local government finances.
  • 🚨 Under Li's leadership, there's a visible shift towards supporting the private sector and easing policies on foreign investments, indicating a potential pivot in economic strategy.
  • 🛠 The narrative suggests Li's management of economic affairs has begun to diverge from Xi Jinping's previous policies, with more emphasis on practical measures over political considerations.
  • 💯 Li's cautious start and subsequent assertive financial and economic measures have started to redefine his role as Premier, suggesting his term might become more influential in shaping China's economic direction.

Q & A

  • What achievements did Li Qiang have before becoming the Premier of China?

    -Before becoming Premier, Li Qiang's notable achievements include the introduction of Tesla, a wholly foreign-owned enterprise, to China, efforts in epidemic prevention, and the implementation of a unified online government service platform.

  • Why is Li Qiang considered the weakest Premier in the history of the People's Republic of China?

    -Li Qiang is considered the weakest Premier due to his relatively low political profile and limited personal power base compared to his predecessors, alongside inheriting a series of significant challenges.

  • How did Li Qiang's start as Premier differ from previous premiers?

    -Unlike previous premiers who stepped into their role gradually, accumulating power and prestige over time, Li Qiang was perceived to have ascended to the position more due to his close relationship with Xi Jinping rather than through a build-up of independent political achievements.

  • What were the major challenges Li Qiang faced at the beginning of his term?

    -Li Qiang faced numerous challenges, including a shrinking real estate market, plummeting land finance revenue leading to severe local government deficits, nationwide debt crises, declining consumer confidence in the economy, and a stringent employment situation.

  • What was Li Qiang's approach to the debt and economic challenges?

    -Li Qiang's approach included issuing a trillion yuan in special government bonds to assist local governments, signaling a significant departure from his predecessor's policies by adopting more proactive fiscal measures.

  • How did Li Qiang's economic policy direction appear to diverge from Xi Jinping's?

    -Li Qiang's economic policy direction showed signs of divergence from Xi Jinping's by focusing on digital economy, intellectual property rights, and improving the business environment, suggesting a shift towards more pragmatic economic reforms.

  • What steps did Li Qiang take to address the employment issue?

    -Contrary to expectations of a major civil service reform, Li Qiang expanded the recruitment of civil servants to mitigate youth unemployment, maintaining stability within the system.

  • In what ways did Li Qiang maintain a low profile compared to his predecessors?

    -Li Qiang maintained a low profile by reducing his visibility in situations traditionally associated with high leadership visibility, such as not attending disaster sites in person and cancelling the traditional Premier's press conference at the Two Sessions.

  • What measures did Li Qiang implement to boost local governments' financial situations?

    -Li Qiang implemented measures such as issuing special government bonds and supporting innovative debt resolution strategies, effectively transferring some of the economic development responsibilities from local to central government.

  • How did Li Qiang's handling of foreign investment and economic policies reflect on his leadership?

    -Li Qiang's leadership saw a pivot towards opening up and cooperation, including policies that fully allowed foreign control in banking and insurance, and lifting restrictions in manufacturing, marking a proactive stance on foreign investment and economic reform.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 An In-depth Look at Li Qiang's First Year as Premier

The narrative begins by addressing corrections from a previous video and sets out to discuss Li Qiang's status as potentially the weakest premier in the history of the People's Republic of China, exploring whether he can be considered successful. Highlighting Li Qiang's rise from the position of Shanghai's Party Secretary to the Premier of the State Council, it contrasts his ascendancy with those of his predecessors who had clear paths paved by their accomplishments. Despite inheriting a 'neat mess' from Li Keqiang, Li Qiang's tenure shows early signs of recovery from the pandemic, with improvements in national consumption, industry breakthroughs, and currency stabilization. However, he faces numerous challenges, including a shrinking real estate market, plummeting land finance revenues, significant local government debts, and a loss of confidence from private enterprises amid stringent challenges.

05:03

📉 The Delicate Balance of Power and Policy under Li Qiang

This section discusses Li Qiang's cautious and unassuming demeanor, which seems to suit Xi Jinping's preferences, contrasting with the more assertive presence of past premiers. Li Qiang's actions, such as calling his official aircraft a charter flight and delaying visits to disaster areas, suggest a strategic subservience aimed at maintaining harmony with Xi Jinping. Despite the lack of significant staff cuts or policy initiatives in his first year, Li Qiang demonstrates a commitment to economic stability and cautious governance. His adherence to Xi's directives is clear, as he engages in policy learning sessions focused on quality development and digital economy, subtly beginning to assert his economic governance role while still steering clear of overt political ambitions.

10:04

🚧 Navigating Economic Challenges and Initiatives

Li Qiang's initial inaction on the burgeoning local government debt issue is highlighted, maintaining a hard stance inherited from Li Keqiang's era. However, as the situation worsens, he introduces a novel strategy of issuing one trillion yuan in special government bonds to assist local governments, signaling a departure from conservative fiscal policies towards more aggressive debt relief and infrastructure investment strategies. This approach contrasts sharply with previous administrations, suggesting Li Qiang's willingness to innovate in the face of dire financial straits, thus reshaping central-local financial dynamics in favor of stronger central government control.

15:07

📈 A Shift in Economic Strategy Amidst Local Debt Crises

The focus shifts to Li Qiang's role in addressing the severe local government debt situation, marking a pivotal moment in his tenure as he begins to assert more control over economic policy. His decisions, from facilitating debt relief through creative financial mechanisms to spearheading financial reforms, indicate a decisive pivot in governance style. This narrative underscores Li Qiang's evolving economic stewardship, marked by a significant shift in policy direction to stabilize the financial sector and local governments, culminating in a strategic bolstering of China's economic resilience and a demonstration of his capability to navigate the complexities of financial reform.

20:11

🌐 Li Qiang's Vision for a Revitalized Private Sector and Open Economy

This segment explores Li Qiang's efforts to revitalize China's economy and private sector, amidst growing challenges. It highlights his significant moves, such as bringing back Jack Ma and implementing policies to boost confidence in the private sector and foreign investment. The narrative underscores Li Qiang's strategic pivot towards a more open and competitive economy, aligning with global standards and fostering a conducive environment for investment and innovation. His leadership is marked by a delicate balance of advancing economic reforms while navigating the political landscape, aiming to rejuvenate China's economic growth and international standing.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Weakest Prime Minister

Refers to Li Qiang being labeled as the 'weakest' in the context of his political power and influence within the People's Republic of China's history. This characterization stems from comparisons with his predecessors and his starting conditions, including his relationship with the central leadership and his initial policy challenges. The script highlights this to question if Li Qiang can be successful despite such a label, considering his rapid rise and the significant challenges he faces.

💡Rapid Promotion

Li Qiang's 'leap to the sky' as Prime Minister signifies his sudden and significant rise to the top of the government hierarchy. This term is crucial to understanding the theme of political mobility and the unpredictability of political careers within the Chinese political system. The script uses this to illustrate Li Qiang's unique journey to power, contrasting it with the traditional slow and steady career progression of his predecessors.

💡Economic Challenges

The script outlines a series of significant economic issues faced by Li Qiang upon taking office, including a shrinking real estate market, plummeting land finance revenue, and local government debt crises. These challenges are key to understanding the difficult starting point for Li Qiang's term as Prime Minister and the broader context of economic pressures on China's governance.

💡Debt Crisis

A central theme of the script is the severe debt problem plaguing local governments, highlighted by default risks and financial insolvency. This crisis sets the stage for evaluating Li Qiang's policies and actions in addressing fiscal stability and economic reform, illustrating the gravity of the situation he inherits and the expectations for innovative solutions.

💡Private Sector Distrust

Mentions the plummeting confidence of private enterprises in the central government's policies and the economic outlook. This is critical for understanding the challenges Li Qiang faces in revitalizing private investment and entrepreneurship, which are essential for sustainable economic growth.

💡Employment Crisis

The script highlights the severe unemployment issues, underscoring the urgent need for effective government intervention. This crisis is a crucial aspect of the social and economic challenges that test Li Qiang's administration, framing the broader narrative of his efforts to stabilize and improve China's economic landscape.

💡Policy Innovations

Refers to Li Qiang's introduction of significant policy measures aimed at economic recovery and reform, such as the support for Tesla's entry into China. These innovations are key to understanding Li Qiang's approach to governance and his attempts to distinguish his leadership amidst China's complex economic challenges.

💡Public Service Reform

The anticipated but not fully realized reform of the public sector workforce under Li Qiang's leadership illustrates the constraints and complexities of political and bureaucratic change in China. The script uses this to question the effectiveness and impact of Li Qiang's governance style and policy decisions.

💡Fiscal Policy

Li Qiang's handling of the fiscal challenges, particularly the management of local government debts and the issuance of special national bonds, reflects his strategic approach to China's economic stabilization and growth. The script emphasizes these actions to demonstrate Li Qiang's pragmatic and decisive leadership in navigating financial crises.

💡International Relations

The script touches on the critical turning point in relations with Western countries and the adjustments in supply chains and foreign investments. This is vital for understanding the external pressures on China's economy and Li Qiang's role in navigating these international dynamics amid internal challenges.

Highlights

Introduction of Li Qiang as potentially the weakest Premier in the history of the People's Republic of China.

Discussion on Li Qiang's first year in office, highlighting major achievements such as attracting Tesla, addressing pandemic failures, and implementing the 'One Network for All' policy.

Comparison of Li Qiang's rapid rise to Premier with previous premiers who took more gradual paths to power.

Examination of the challenging inheritance from Li Keqiang, including an organized but problematic situation.

Analysis of economic recovery signals amidst severe challenges, including real estate market contraction and local government financial deficits.

The significant debt crisis facing local governments and the innovative debt management strategies that emerged.

The drop in confidence from private businesses towards central policies and economic outlook.

Li Qiang's cautious approach to political and economic reforms in his first year.

Exploration of Li Qiang's relationship with Xi Jinping, highlighting a sense of comfort and security Xi finds in Li's humility and caution.

Cancellation of the traditional Premier's press conference at the Two Sessions, reflecting Li Qiang's low-profile approach.

Strategic shifts in economic policy, including addressing the debt crisis and fostering a better business environment.

Li Qiang's efforts to balance traditional and new economic policies amidst growing challenges.

The impact of Li Qiang's policies on China's international relations and investment landscape.

Speculation on Li Qiang's long-term effectiveness and potential legacy as Premier.

Consideration of Li Qiang's potential to navigate China through its current economic and political complexities.

Transcripts

play00:00

去年我們做了一期

play00:09

被許多朋友指正

play00:17

今天 我們就來講更嚴格意義上的

play00:29

有人說 李強是共和國史上最弱勢的總理

play00:36

那這個最弱勢的總理

play00:38

會是一位成功的總理嗎

play00:41

走進李強的一周年

play00:47

帶著引進全資外企特斯拉 全市防疫大潰敗 一網通辦等三大政績

play00:54

上中共海市委書記李強

play00:57

越級高升國務院總理

play01:00

一步登天當上了百官之首

play01:03

如果說 過去的國務院總理

play01:06

是跬步千里 水到渠成方才踏出最後一步的明星

play01:11

那麼李強 則是憑著一人獨寵脫穎而出

play01:16

李強的開局手牌

play01:18

李克強留給他的是一個井然有序的爛攤子

play01:23

從好的方面說

play01:24

全國各地走出疫情

play01:26

國內消費出現復甦勢頭

play01:29

採購經理人指數重回50

play01:32

某些行業取得了重大突破

play01:34

匯率也從2022年底的高點拉回到了6.8附近

play01:39

而在事情的另一面

play01:41

光是看得見的地方就擺著數十條嚴峻的挑戰

play01:45

房地產市場的全面萎縮

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土地財政收入的斷崖式下跌

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造成各地方政府財政的嚴重虧空

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顯然是最大的顯眼包

play01:56

以基建帶動投資 跨越式發展經濟的老路不再暢通

play02:02

全國各地地方政府的馬甲城投公司紛紛債務暴雷

play02:07

債務問題突出的省份幾乎財政破產

play02:11

擺爛等待國務院的搶救

play02:14

民營企業對中央的信任和對經濟前景的信心跌至谷底

play02:19

過去一年 各行業的民營企業所遇到的糟心事

play02:23

有教育培訓業消失

play02:26

網路巨頭被退市 罰款 拆分

play02:29

房地產企業債務違約

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行業大面積暴雷 全國各地留下無數爛尾樓

play02:35

工業企業訂單量下降 部分企業被迫開始停工待產

play02:40

各地的中小企業經營困難

play02:43

出現大面積虧損甚至大量關停結業

play02:47

就業情勢極度嚴峻 失業問題捲土重來

play02:51

而在外部 與西方國家的關係迎來關鍵拐點

play02:55

部分供應鏈外移

play02:57

敏感的外資也開始悄悄撤離中國

play03:00

比起前幾任總理的開局手牌

play03:03

可以說 情況很糟糕

play03:06

大概只比李鵬在1987年火線上任時面臨的局面要略好一些

play03:13

那麼 李強這第一年

play03:15

到底做得怎麼樣呢

play03:20

在我們頻道的第一期節目中

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提到李強新官上任的第一把火

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也許會是一輪大裁員

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幻想李強會趁著財政情勢的緊張

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來搞搞精兵簡政

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對幹部體系來一輪瘦身重塑

play03:35

然而一年過去

play03:36

我們的判斷勉強強只能說對了一小半

play03:41

一年過去 過緊日子這幾個字

play03:44

確實成為了體制內的新口號

play03:46

也成了一些基層公職人員的真實生活狀態

play03:50

但轟轟烈烈的大裁員式公務員改革

play03:53

卻沒有一丁點兒聲響

play03:55

也沒有把編外人才大規模的輸送到社會

play03:59

甚至為了緩和青年就業問題

play04:01

逆勢擴大了公務員招錄人數

play04:04

基本上守住了體制大飯碗

play04:08

李強過去幾年在浙江和上海玩得輕車熟路的精簡政務

play04:12

在他的第一年總理任期

play04:14

似乎也沒有被列入工作規劃

play04:17

國務院雖然不掌握高級幹部的人事權

play04:21

但是掌管中央機構編制委員會

play04:23

控制體制內的人員編制權

play04:26

這一年 沒有在編製上下手

play04:28

沒有著手處理體制內的嚴重冗餘

play04:31

僅暫時降低了體制內的實際薪資待遇

play04:35

李強總理任期的第一年

play04:38

可以說在幹部隊伍的減員增效上毫無作為

play04:42

我願稱李強為

play04:44

大慈大悲救苦救體製飯碗守護者

play04:52

雖然李強在裁員的事上打臉了我台

play04:55

我台確實在暗中有些憤懣

play04:58

但我們的總書記

play04:59

似乎對李強非常滿意

play05:02

如果說 多年來 國務院總理都是一個與中共中央總書記 與國家主席平起平坐的政治巨頭

play05:10

甚至會有那麼一點

play05:12

讓總書記感到不適

play05:15

那麼李強

play05:16

他的謹小慎微 他的低調卑躬 處處表現出的恭讓

play05:21

是那麼的令習近平感到舒適和安全

play05:26

在2017年中央政治局審議通過的《中共中央政治局貫徹落實中央八項規定的實施細則》中明確規定

play05:35

中共中央總書記 國務院總理出訪乘坐專機

play05:39

其他中央政治局常委出訪

play05:42

依工作需求 可搭乘民航包機或班機

play05:46

而李強出訪

play05:48

坐著和前任李克強一樣的飛機 享受著一樣的待遇

play05:52

卻堅持把自己的飛機叫做包機

play05:56

什麼是獨此一份的尊貴 李強懂

play06:01

2023年8月 華北發生洪澇災害

play06:04

按過往慣例 國務院總理應親臨搶险救災一線坐鎮指揮

play06:10

並發表現場演說鼓舞軍民士氣

play06:20

這樣的場合

play06:21

不僅是政府首長的工作職責所在

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更是樹立領導衝鋒在前 救世英雄形象的大好機會

play06:39

但面對這次洪水

play06:41

李強選擇的回應

play06:42

是在洪水退潮後

play06:54

副總理和國務委員學到了什麼

play06:56

咱們不知道

play06:58

但是我們學到了

play06:59

在中華大地 蓋世英雄只能有一個

play07:04

李強的恭謙態度 刻意營造的階級感

play07:08

在前幾天的兩會中 更是達到了登峰之境

play07:20

取消了已延續三十年的總理記者會

play07:23

放棄了國務院總理每年最重要的一次演出

play07:28

作為代替的是兩會版本的部長記者會和加長版的部長通道

play07:34

李強確實是個大聰明

play07:36

部長記者會 談的是政策

play07:39

總理記者會 談的是政治

play07:42

自己羽翼未豐 若言多有失 恐怕擔當不起

play07:47

形象什麼的 又不能當飯吃

play07:50

不如做個不慕虛名

play07:52

全心謀事的百官之首

play07:55

聰明又自私

play07:57

總書記最需要的東西

play07:59

安全感

play08:00

李強穩穩的拿捏

play08:06

李克強時期

play08:07

中國的經濟政策是習李兩條路線的暗戰與衝突

play08:12

隨著習近平路線的全面勝出

play08:15

在李克強任期的最後幾年

play08:17

面對嚴峻的國內外情勢

play08:19

竟出現了國務院總理放手躺平的微妙狀態

play08:24

與李克強不同

play08:25

李強是追隨習近平二十多年的自己人

play08:28

有著無限的信任

play08:30

那麼 習近平與李強 是否真的就完全一心

play08:35

上任開始 李強在傳統的國務院常務會議之外

play08:39

開啟了國務院專題學習制度

play08:42

2023年4月的第一場學習會

play08:44

是把握高品質發展首要任務

play08:47

2023年6月的第二場學習會

play08:49

是學習習近平講話精神

play08:51

兩場習思想務虛學習會後

play08:54

隨著經濟情勢的惡化

play08:56

2023年8月的學習會開始研究起了數位經濟

play08:59

2023年10月的學習會 主題是智慧財產權

play09:03

2023年12月的學習會 是打造市場化法治化國際化一流營商環境

play09:09

而半個月前 最近的一場學習會

play09:12

主題是建立健全公平競爭制度加速完善全國統一大市場基礎制度規則

play09:19

從前兩場學習會的小心翼翼 唯唯諾諾 暢談虛空

play09:24

到第三第四場學習會的非政治議題

play09:27

然後到最近兩場學習會

play09:29

開始在政治上 從總書記前幾年的路線上偏離

play09:34

從學習主題的變化

play09:36

可以一窺國內經濟情勢的變化

play09:38

也可以窺見李強

play09:40

在國務院總理任上發揮思想自主的空間的變化

play09:45

李強在任期的首個半年

play09:48

甚至沒有試探自己的權力邊界

play09:50

可以說幾乎無所作為

play09:52

直到經濟狀況真正出現失控跡象的第四季

play09:56

習近平才開始真正向李強讓渡經濟方面的權力

play10:01

細心的觀眾可有發現

play10:03

最近半年 習近平在經濟領域的發言越來越少

play10:08

而李強 則越來越多的在經濟上取代了習近平

play10:13

李強閉口不談政治

play10:15

但在經濟上 卻在冒著巨大的政治風險踩剎車 打方向

play10:20

試著對經濟政策做出大幅的修正

play10:24

政治實力不濟 但卻手握巨大的法定權力

play10:28

那麼乾脆專注實務 完全放棄政治

play10:32

這就是李強總理第一年的基本工作思路

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在火燒眉毛的地方債務問題上

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李強在上任的最初幾個月無所作為

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財政部留任了李克強時期的部長劉昆

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在地方債務問題上

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維持李克強時期的基調

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堅持誰家的孩子誰抱的強硬姿態

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放任了地方財政繼續暴雷

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國務院的放手

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強烈的激發出各地的地方政府發展出各種新奇的化債思路

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各地化債工作呈現出八仙過海各顯神通的景象

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昔日的政治高地貴州

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經過短暫的低迷後 也再次回到聚光燈下

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從快速發展的優等生 變身化債工作的標兵

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直到10月 在地方債務問題即將全面失控的關鍵時刻

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李強終於出手換掉了李克強時代留下的財政部部長

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何立峰的大學同學劉昆

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新任財政部部長藍佛安上任次日

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即批准了增發一兆元的特別國債

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增發的特別國債全部透過轉移支付方式安排給地方使用

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地方政府白花 中央政府還錢

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而上一次發行的抗疫特別國債

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則是由中央發行 轉手借給地方政府

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最後還是由地方政府還本付息

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不僅摳摳搜搜 還顯著加重了地方政府的財政負擔

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李強出手的闊綽

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與李克強的保守吝嗇形成鮮明對比

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除了给钱 李强也给政策

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對各種激進的化債方案

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國務院也開始大開綠燈

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各地的特殊再融資債券紛紛上馬

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包括城投平台在內的不良負債都得到政府的信用兜底

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今年的兩會上 李強更是提出

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透過左手倒右手

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實際結果相當於

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將原本由地方舉債投資基建拉動經濟發展的責任

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更多的由中央政府承擔

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李強總理對地方官僚的慈父仁心

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簡直像極了替兒子還網貸的老父親

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中央近半年的一通輸血搶救

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成功為某些地方財政續命

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而那些迎難而上 刀尖舔血 在2023年仍堅持玩城投債的機構

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則賺得缽滿盆盈

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現在回看

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如果李強等級的化債措施

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能夠提早一年至兩年

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在李克強時期開始實施

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那麼今日的中國經濟

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也許真的會更加光明

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畢竟 幾兆元的債務 對地方政府而言

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是一場壓上身家性命的豪賭

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而對於中央 雖不能說是穩賺不賠的遊戲

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但以中央的財力

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數兆元特別國債投資的輸贏尺度

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不過是一把小賭怡情而已

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而在治國的層面

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土地財政破產

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地方政府失去了隱瞞中央私自舉債的能力

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中央也開始對違規違法舉債展開問責

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各地方財政自主能力嚴重下降

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而國務院透過特別國債獲得大量的資金

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極大提升了財政能力

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這巧妙的一升一降

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將央地博弈的天平 穩穩的壓向中央一邊

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成功的將過去多年國務院幾乎失去的一半財政權

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從地方政府收回

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上任初期 在3月30日的博鰲論壇上 李強說

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大致保持李克強 不出台刺激措施 去槓桿化 的路線

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但情勢比人強

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嚴峻的地方債務化債情勢

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壓得某些地方政府喘不過氣的同時

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也對金融業造成巨大衝擊

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依2023年7月

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標誌著經濟工作開始全面大轉向的政治局會議的要求

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地方債務這些高風險業務

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開始由中小金融機構向幾大國有銀行轉移

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李強高唱經濟光明論 疾呼黨管金融

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壓著手下陽奉陰違的金融體系吃下大筆爛債

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為地方財政輸血止痛

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在11月 李強真正開始執掌經濟的第四季度

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李強終於拿到了新設立的中央金融委員會主任的新職務

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明確擴大了在經濟領域的職權

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李強在經濟領域擴權的同一時間

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股票市場上的機構和投資者卻用腳投票

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上證指數從3000點保衛戰 一路打到2600點保衛戰

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這場小股災的結果

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是證監會主席易會滿的下台

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李強在上海的老部下吳清入主證監會

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以行政手段介入空頭操作 國資入場抄底

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國務院再放出兩兆平準基金的消息

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硬生生將上證指數拉回3000

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給空頭來了一場小小的新春震撼

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本次A股救市成功

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是李強接手金融工作以來首次小勝利

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而「懂金融 懂經濟」的何立峰

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卻在這場遊戲中失去了角色

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一年 李強在場邊觀望了半年等待暴雷

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又用半年時間親自下場操作並成功救場

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在高層幹部隊伍內部

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成功樹立敢衝 敢做 敢擔當的形象

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與經濟上持重保守的李克強形成強烈對比

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財政部 央行 金管局 證監會等關鍵部門

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亦盡數落入李強之手

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近幾年來 民營企業主似乎被踢出了人民的範疇

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李強以習近平的貼身助手出身

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習李有知遇之恩

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是總書記信得過的忠誠部下

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但這種信任 並不能等同於李強與習近平的政治理念

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以及在具體問題的看法上會完全相同

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李強與習近平在政見上的一個顯著差異

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就是關於國營企業的地位

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習近平的觀點

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國營企業是中國特色社會主義的重要物質基礎與政治基礎

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是黨執政興國的重要支柱與依賴力量

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必須做強做優做大

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而從溫州摸爬滾打出身

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多年深耕江浙滬的李強

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除了習近平的一手提拔

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江浙滬民營企業主

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多年來為他抬轎的恩情亦是沒齒難忘

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李強在江浙上海任職期間

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時刻掛念民營經濟

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顯有提及總書記日夜掛念的國營企業做強做大

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想必也是本色演出

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而當上了國務院總理後

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他對國營企業的說法 則是

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幾句平平無奇的中式官話

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其中與總書記談話的細微差別 值得細細玩味

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習近平說 國營企業是黨執政興國的根基 必須理直氣壯做強做大

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李強則主張國營企業改革

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國企更重要的任務 是帶動民營經濟

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其中的親疏之別 不細細品讀 確實難解其味

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在上任總理的第一場記者會 李強便坦言

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為了重建民營企業家對中央的信任

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李強亦是在各種場合無數次的呼喊

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而他上任總理後做的第一件小事

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就是把中國營經濟的標桿

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那個閉上了嘴巴

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長期滯留海外的馬雲請了回來

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馬雲回國重出江湖 高調現身杭州

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引得華東商界沸騰

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被視為李強重振民營經濟信心的首勝

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也撩撥一大批長期滯留海外的商界大佬回國再創輝煌的熱望

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更展現出李強對他的華東大本營的絕對影響力

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在社會各界的矚目下

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馬雲回國操作的大手筆在幾個月後落地

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投資十多億元 建立了馬家廚房 一米八等幾家新公司

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高調佈置餐飲業

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在餐飲業的新公司還未激起什麼浪花

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便回頭斥資數億元購置了海外房產

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隨後又低高調的改組了螞蟻系

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終於活成了閒散富家翁

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再之後 便開啟了環遊世界的旅程

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這個不能多說話的人

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用實誠的身體表現

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很好的向世界展示了頂級商界領袖

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對於老朋友的支持與信任

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不愧為浙商之巔

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回望2023 外商和民營企業對現況和前景的判斷

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多多少少有一些類似的感受

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從李強上任初期的穩中向好

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迅速變成急轉直下

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到第三季 外商直接投資出現25年來的首次負值

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各路外媒和民間輿論藉此大做文章

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矛頭直指習近平

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而在傳統的中國政治中

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國務院總理才是主管經濟的最高領導

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但半年無所作為的李強卻在輿論場上隱形

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對經濟情勢的批評

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習近平扛下了所有

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直到第四季

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李強方才真正進入狀態

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以2023年11月 中國突然單方面開放對6國免簽為標誌

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對外資的態度出現急轉

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2024年一月 李強飛往瑞士達沃斯

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大談開放合作

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與過往數次不同的是

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這次 李強沒有讓他的發言變成空話

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回到國內後

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很快就落實了外資可百分之百控股銀行保險機構

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全面取消製造業領域外資准入限制等實際措施

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此番政策的急轉向

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標誌著李強已經真正開始掌舵中國經濟

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若換是他人

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這種政策急轉向的落地

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無疑是搶奪方向盤性質的重大挑戰

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需要承擔的政治責任無法想像

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也只有李強

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這個習近平真正信任的好兄弟

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能夠在悄無聲息之間做到

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這是偷天換日的蓋世神功啊

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有人說 習近平選擇李強

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是為了讓李強為經濟問題背鍋

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但現實中 李強愣是按兵不動的等了半年

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在李強真正上台表演的第四季之前

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所有的指標都在下跌

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而李強的每一次出手

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結果都是搶救成功

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而對於黨中央決策層的批評

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則由習近平一個人扛下了所有

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還有朋友說

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李強這個國務院總理

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會是個受氣的小媳婦 處處施展不開

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但當小媳婦受氣這個事情

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往另一面說 小媳婦就算不是門當戶對的原配

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但好歹也是二婚的正牌夫人

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工作只是難在起步

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多受了一些委屈

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未必不會有媳婦熬成婆的一天

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起步最低的國務院總理

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小心翼翼的低調進場

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刻意壓低國務院總理的身姿

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唯恐與總書記爭風

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在經濟情勢低迷的陣痛中

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默默的拿回了一些原本就屬於國務院的權力

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現在 他終於真正的成為了丁薛祥和何立峰的上司

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2024年及2025年

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才是李強真正的演出時間

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前幾天李強取消了兩會閉幕後的總理記者會

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當時我說 李強是大聰明 有大智慧

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真正的懂得 面子和里子的取捨

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他只是不太想當著大家的訪談政治

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政治的事 有蔡奇呢

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你們怎麼能說他不是一個好總理呢

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