ARE THE TORIES FINISHED? MATT GOODWIN, JACOB REES-MOGG & NIGEL FARAGE ON THE FUTURE OF CONSERVATISM

Summary

The video script is a debate about whether the UK's Conservative Party is in terminal decline. Participants argue the party has lost the confidence of its 2019 voters due to disagreements over immigration policy and a disconnect between the party leadership and its base. There is discussion over whether the newly formed Reform Party could replace the Conservatives, but also acknowledgment that the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system makes this challenging. The debate highlights volatility in UK politics and questions whether this moment could mark historic political change.

Takeaways

• 😟 Farage believes the Conservative party is in grave danger and could be terminally declining
• 🤔 The Conservative party is deeply divided and disconnected from its voters
• 📉 Recent polls show Conservatives plummeting to just 20% support
• 👎 Farage says Boris Johnson has failed to deliver on Brexit promises like controlling immigration
• 😕 Farage feels Conservative voters have lost confidence in the party leadership
• 🤨 Farage wonders if there's any point to the Conservative party anymore
• 📈 Farage notes the Reform party is rising in polls without much effort so far
• 🤔 Historic volatility suggests voters are open to changing party support
• 😟 Immigration remains a top priority issue for Conservative voters
• 🤔 Farage implies he faces a decision on getting involved with Reform party

Q & A

What are the current poll numbers showing for the Conservative Party?

The latest poll numbers show the Conservatives down to 20% support, with the Reform Party at 12% and Labour with a massive lead.

What does Nigel Farage think is the main reason for the Conservatives' poll decline?

Farage believes the main reason is that Conservative voters have lost confidence in the party over its failure to control immigration and 'stop the boats', despite promises to do so.

How does Professor Matt Goodwin characterize the Conservative Party's current situation?

Goodwin says the Conservatives are 'on life support' and don't know how to speak to the voters they inherited from Brexit.

What challenge does Jacob Rees-Mogg say the Conservatives face regarding voters?

Rees-Mogg says the Conservatives have failed to inspire their own voters recently and need to say things that inspire them again.

What exception does Rees-Mogg point to regarding challenger parties?

Rees-Mogg cites the case of the Reform Party in Canada in the 1990s, which went from a challenger to wiping out the incumbent Conservative majority.

What could convince some Conservative MPs to defect, according to Goodwin?

Goodwin suggests Conservative MPs facing defeat may defect to Reform if they think it gives them a better chance of retaining their seats.

Why does Farage say immigration could be as divisive as Brexit was?

Farage argues immigration is now the top priority for many voters over economic issues, making it a new dividing issue.

What does Goodwin say is historically unprecedented right now?

Goodwin points out voter volatility and churn is at unprecedented highs, with 60% changing votes between elections.

What challenge does Rees-Mogg say Reform faces?

Rees-Mogg states Reform faces the challenge of first-past-the-post, which makes it hard for challengers even with close polling.

How does the panel view the Conservatives' long-term survival chances?

The panelists agree the Conservative Party is likely to survive long-term based on its historic resilience, but its current situation is dire.