The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity ... | Elon Musk

Summary

Elon Musk discusses his vision for sustainable energy and transport during a TED Talk. He outlines the importance of transitioning to electric cars, the efficiency of electric vehicles compared to traditional ones, and Tesla's strategy to make electric cars mainstream. Musk also talks about SolarCity, emphasizing the potential of solar power and the company's innovative approach to making solar energy accessible. Furthermore, he shares his ambitious goals for SpaceX, including the development of reusable rockets to reduce the cost of space travel and his dream of establishing a multi-planetary human civilization with a Mars colony.

Takeaways

• 🚀 Elon Musk's motivation for entering the auto industry was driven by a university-era reflection on the world's future problems, particularly the need for sustainable transport and energy production.
• 🌿 Despite most American electricity coming from fossil fuels, electric cars are more efficient because power plants can convert fuel to energy more effectively than internal combustion engines.
• 🔋 Musk emphasizes the importance of developing sustainable electricity generation, which aligns with the adoption of electric vehicles as a primary mode of transport.
• 🚗 The Tesla vehicle assembly process is innovative, focusing on energy efficiency through the use of an all-aluminum body and chassis, and a design that minimizes drag.
• 🌟 Tesla's battery technology is advanced, allowing for a competitive range of around 250 miles, with some users even achieving over 400 miles on a single charge.
• 💨 The responsiveness of electric cars is a key differentiator, providing an intuitive and engaging driving experience that traditional gasoline cars cannot match.
• 💸 Tesla's strategy includes a three-step approach to making electric cars accessible: starting with a high-priced sports car, moving to a medium-priced model, and eventually offering an affordable, high-volume vehicle.
• 🔌 The development of Supercharging technology by Tesla aims to mitigate range anxiety by providing fast, free charging along major routes and highways.
• ☀️ SolarCity, another of Musk's ventures, is focused on sustainable electricity production, offering solar power systems that can be leased with no upfront cost, potentially reducing utility bills.
• 🚀 SpaceX's ambition is to revolutionize space travel by developing fully reusable rockets, which could significantly reduce the cost of space exploration and enable a multi-planetary human civilization.
• 🌐 Musk's success across diverse fields is attributed to his system-level thinking, integrating design, technology, and business, and a willingness to take calculated risks based on first principles reasoning.

Q & A

What were Elon Musk's initial thoughts on sustainable energy and transport during his university years?

Elon Musk thought about the problems that were most likely to affect the future of the world or humanity, and concluded that sustainable transport and sustainable energy production were extremely important, independent of environmental concerns.

Why did Elon Musk believe that electric cars could be more efficient even when powered by electricity from fossil fuels?

Even if the same source fuel is used, electric cars are more efficient because power plants can achieve higher efficiency rates, and waste heat can be utilized to generate additional power, making electric cars at least twice as efficient as internal combustion engine cars.

What is the significance of Tesla's all-aluminum body and chassis design?

The all-aluminum body and chassis make the car incredibly light, which is essential for energy efficiency in electric vehicles, despite the weight of the large battery pack.

How does Tesla's low drag coefficient contribute to the vehicle's efficiency?

The low drag coefficient reduces air resistance, which lowers energy usage and improves the vehicle's range, making it competitive with traditional cars.

What is Elon Musk's vision for the future of transportation in terms of energy efficiency?

Elon Musk envisions all modes of transport becoming fully electric, with the exception of rockets, to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport.

What is the three-step process that Tesla has followed to make electric cars more accessible to the mass market?

Tesla's three-step process includes introducing an expensive car at low volume (Roadster), followed by a medium-priced, medium-volume car (Model S), and finally a low-priced, high-volume car, which was expected to be released a few years after the interview.

How does Tesla's Supercharging technology address the concern about the lack of a nationwide fast-charging network?

Tesla's Supercharging technology provides fast charging at no cost to Model S owners, with a network that covers major routes and is designed to allow for efficient long-distance travel with minimal stop time.

What is Elon Musk's perspective on the future of solar power as a primary means of electricity generation?

Elon Musk is confident that solar power will become the primary means of electricity generation, as it is a sustainable and abundant source of energy, and he believes it will beat all other sources, including natural gas.

How does SolarCity's business model work, and what is its value proposition to consumers?

SolarCity offers consumers the option to buy or lease solar systems with no money down, and the monthly lease payment is less than what they would pay to a utility company, providing immediate savings and a reduction in utility bills.

What is the ultimate goal of SpaceX, and how does the development of reusable rockets contribute to it?

The ultimate goal of SpaceX is to advance rocket technology to create a rapidly and fully reusable rocket, which is vital for humanity to become a space-faring civilization and to establish a base on another planet, such as Mars.

How has Elon Musk's approach to innovation and risk-taking been described in the script?

Elon Musk's approach to innovation is described as thinking at a system level, integrating design, technology, and business, and taking calculated risks based on a deep understanding and confidence in his vision. He also emphasizes the importance of first principles reasoning and seeking negative feedback.

Outlines

00:00

🚗 The Vision for Sustainable Energy and Transportation

Elon Musk discusses his motivation for entering the automotive industry with the goal of creating an all-electric vehicle. He emphasizes the importance of sustainable energy and transport, viewing it as a crucial problem for the future of humanity. Musk argues that even when charged with electricity from fossil fuels, electric cars are more efficient due to the higher energy conversion rates in power plants compared to internal combustion engines. He also touches on the need for sustainable electricity generation and introduces the Tesla's innovative design, including its all-aluminum body, low drag coefficient, and advanced battery technology, which contribute to its efficiency and range.

05:00

🔋 The Evolution of Tesla: From Luxury to Mass Market

Musk outlines Tesla's strategy, which involves a three-step approach to making electric vehicles accessible to the mass market. Starting with a high-priced, low-volume sports car, the company aims to gradually reduce costs and increase production volume with each new model. The Model S is presented as a medium-priced, medium-volume vehicle, with a future, more affordable model planned. He addresses the current lack of charging stations by introducing Tesla's Supercharger technology, which offers fast, free charging to Model S owners, and discusses the company's progress in building a nationwide charging network.

10:03

🌞 Solar Power and the Future of Energy

Elon Musk shifts the discussion to solar energy and his involvement with SolarCity. He asserts that solar power is the primary means of sustainable electricity production, likening it to indirect fusion from the sun. Musk is confident that solar will become the dominant source of power, surpassing even natural gas. He explains SolarCity's business model, which involves leasing solar panels to consumers with no upfront costs, leading to reduced utility bills. The company's approach to financing and installation costs is highlighted as key to making solar power more affordable and accessible.

15:07

🚀 SpaceX and the Pursuit of Reusable Rocket Technology

Musk's ambitions extend to space exploration and the establishment of SpaceX with the goal of developing rapidly and fully reusable rockets. He contrasts the current expendable nature of rocket launches with other reusable modes of transport, emphasizing the economic and practical benefits of reusability. The discussion includes a video demonstration of a rocket's vertical landing capabilities, showcasing the progress made towards this goal. Musk's vision for a space-faring civilization and the potential for a Mars colony are also mentioned, highlighting the transformative impact of reusable rocket technology.

20:09

🤔 The Secret to Innovation: First Principles Reasoning

In the final part of the discussion, Musk reflects on his approach to innovation, attributing his success to a method of first principles reasoning derived from physics. He advocates for breaking down problems to their fundamental truths and building solutions from there, rather than relying on analogical reasoning. Musk also stresses the importance of seeking negative feedback, especially from friends, as a means to refine ideas and improve outcomes. The conversation concludes with a tribute to Musk's multifaceted contributions to technology and his unique ability to take on ambitious projects.

Keywords

💡Sustainable Energy

Sustainable energy refers to the practice of meeting current energy needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. In the context of the video, Elon Musk emphasizes the importance of sustainable energy production and transport as critical for the future of humanity, independent of environmental concerns. He argues that even if CO2 production was not an issue, the eventual depletion of hydrocarbons necessitates finding sustainable alternatives.

💡Electric Car

An electric car is a vehicle that is powered by an electric motor, drawing energy from rechargeable batteries or another form of electrical energy storage. The video discusses Musk's venture into electric cars with Tesla, aiming to create sustainable transport. He explains the efficiency of electric cars even when charged with electricity from fossil fuel sources due to the higher energy conversion rates compared to internal combustion engines.

💡Efficiency

Efficiency in the video refers to the ratio of useful work performed or energy utilized to the total energy expended. Musk compares the efficiency of electricity generation in power plants versus in car engines, highlighting that even when using the same fuel source, electric cars are more efficient due to the ability to utilize waste heat and the higher energy conversion rates in power plants.

💡Supercharging

Supercharging, as mentioned in the script, is a technology developed by Tesla for electric vehicles that allows for rapid charging of the vehicle's batteries. Musk discusses the implementation of Supercharging stations across the U.S., which are capable of charging at a much higher rate than conventional charging stations, facilitating long-distance travel for electric car users.

💡Solar Power

Solar power is the conversion of sunlight into electricity, either directly using photovoltaics (PV) or indirectly using concentrated solar power (CSP). In the video, Musk discusses his involvement with SolarCity, focusing on sustainable electricity generation. He believes that solar power will become the primary means of power generation and outlines the business model of leasing solar panels to consumers to reduce upfront costs.

💡Energy-Efficient

Energy-efficient refers to the use of less energy to provide the same level of output. Musk talks about the design of the Tesla electric car, which is made with an all-aluminum body and chassis to be incredibly light, thus offsetting the weight of the heavy battery pack. This, combined with a low drag coefficient, makes the car energy-efficient, allowing for a longer range on a single charge.

💡Battery Pack

A battery pack is a combination of multiple battery cells, which are connected together to provide the necessary power and voltage for various applications. In the context of the video, the battery pack is a critical component of the electric car, providing the energy storage needed for the vehicle to operate. Musk mentions the advanced battery pack in Tesla cars, which allows for a competitive range of up to 250 miles.

💡Renewable Energy

Renewable energy comes from natural sources or processes that are constantly replenished. The video touches on Musk's vision for a future powered by renewable energy, particularly solar, as a means to address the sustainability of both energy consumption and production. He argues for the necessity of moving away from finite resources like hydrocarbons towards renewable sources like solar power.

💡Space-Faring Civilization

A space-faring civilization is one that is capable of space travel and has the ability to explore, live, and thrive beyond its home planet. Musk discusses his vision for humanity to become a space-faring civilization, with Mars as a potential destination for colonization. He emphasizes the importance of reusable rocket technology for making space travel economically feasible and sustainable.

💡Reusable Rockets

Reusable rockets are launch vehicles that can be used multiple times without the need for complete refurbishment after each flight. In the video, Musk explains SpaceX's goal to develop fully and rapidly reusable rockets, which would dramatically reduce the cost of space travel. He shows a video of a test project where a rocket successfully lands vertically after a simulated launch, illustrating the progress towards this goal.

💡First Principles Reasoning

First principles reasoning is a philosophical and scientific method of inquiry that breaks down complex problems into their most fundamental, or 'first', principles. Musk suggests that this method is key to his approach to innovation. He advocates for reasoning from fundamental truths rather than by analogy, which he believes is essential for creating new and innovative solutions, as exemplified by his work across various industries.

Highlights

Elon Musk's motivation for sustainable transport and energy production stems from his university days and the need to solve the sustainable energy problem.

Musk argues that even if CO2 production was beneficial, sustainable energy is necessary due to the finite nature of hydrocarbons.

Electric cars are more efficient than traditional cars even when charged with electricity from fossil fuels due to higher energy conversion rates.

Tesla's approach to electric cars includes using an all-aluminum body and chassis for lightness and incorporating rocket design techniques.

The Tesla Model S has the lowest drag coefficient in its class, contributing to its energy efficiency and range.

Tesla owners have achieved remarkable ranges, with one setting a world record of 420 miles on a single charge.

Musk's vision includes a future where all modes of transport are fully electric, with rockets being the exception due to Newton's third law.

Tesla's strategy involves a three-step process starting with high-end cars and moving towards mass-market, affordable electric vehicles.

Supercharging technology developed by Tesla allows for fast charging and is offered for free to Model S owners.

Musk's confidence in solar power's ability to become the primary means of electricity generation is based on its sustainability and potential cost-effectiveness.

SolarCity, a company Musk is involved with, offers solar power systems with no upfront cost and lower utility bills through leasing.

Musk predicts that solar power will become the plurality of power sources within 20 years, outpacing other forms of energy production.

SpaceX's goal is to develop rapidly and fully reusable rockets to reduce the cost of space travel and enable a space-faring civilization.

Musk discusses the Grasshopper Test Project, which is pioneering vertical landing technology for rockets, a key step towards reusability.

Musk's approach to innovation involves first principles reasoning, starting from fundamental truths rather than analogies, and seeking negative feedback.

Musk's success across diverse fields like PayPal, SolarCity, Tesla, and SpaceX is attributed to his system-level thinking and willingness to take calculated risks.

Transcripts

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream

would persuade you to think of trying

to take on the auto industry and build an all-electric car?

Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university.

I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely

to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?

I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport

and sustainable energy production.

That sort of overall sustainable energy problem

is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century,

independent of environmental concerns.

In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environment,

given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbons,

we need to find some sustainable means of operating.

CA: Most of American electricity comes from

burning fossil fuels.

How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?

EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer.

One is that, even if you take the same source fuel

and produce power at the power plant

and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.

So if you take, say, natural gas,

which is the most prevalent hydrocarbon source fuel,

if you burn that in a modern

General Electric natural gas turbine,

you'll get about 60 percent efficiency.

If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,

you get about 20 percent efficiency.

And the reason is, in the stationary power plant,

you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,

is voluminous,

and you can take the waste heat

and run a steam turbine and generate

a secondary power source.

So in effect, even after you've taken transmission loss into account and everything,

even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better off

charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.

CA: That scale delivers efficiency.

EM: Yes, it does.

And then the other point is, we have to have sustainable means

of power generation anyway, electricity generation.

So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity generation,

then it makes sense for us to have electric cars

as the mode of transport.

CA: So we've got some video here

of the Tesla being assembled,

which, if we could play that first video --

So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?

EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport,

and I should say that I think, actually,

all modes of transport will become fully electric

with the ironic exception of rockets.

There's just no way around Newton's third law.

The question is how do you accelerate

the advent of electric transport?

And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with

a really energy efficient car,

so that means making it incredibly light,

and so what you're seeing here

is the only all-aluminum body and chassis car

made in North America.

In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques

to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.

And then it also has the lowest drag coefficient

of any car of its size.

So as a result, the energy usage is very low,

and it has the most advanced battery pack,

and that's what gives it the range that's competitive,

so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.

CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy,

but you think the math can still work out intelligently --

by combining light body, heavy battery,

you can still gain spectacular efficiency.

EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light

to offset the mass of the pack,

and then you have to have a low drag coefficient so that you have good highway range.

And in fact, customers of the Model S

are sort of competing with each other

to try to get the highest possible range.

I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.

CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that,

broke the world record.EM: Congratulations.

CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that

to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed

and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)

EM: I mean, you can certainly drive --

if you drive it 65 miles an hour,

under normal conditions,

250 miles is a reasonable number.

CA: Let's show that second video

showing the Tesla in action on ice.

Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.

What is the most surprising thing about the experience

of driving the car?

EM: In creating an electric car,

the responsiveness of the car is really incredible.

So we wanted really to have people feel as though

they've almost got to mind meld with the car,

so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one,

and as you corner and accelerate, it just happens,

like the car has ESP.

You can do that with an electric car because of its responsiveness.

You can't do that with a gasoline car.

I think that's really a profound difference,

and people only experience that when they have a test drive.

CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car.

Is there a road map where this becomes

a mass-market vehicle?

EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been

to have a sort of three-step process,

where version one was an expensive car at low volume,

version two is medium priced and medium volume,

and then version three would be low price, high volume.

So we're at step two at this point.

So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.

Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000 dollars.

And our third generation car, which should hopefully

be out in about three or four years

will be a $30,000 car.

But whenever you've got really new technology,

it generally takes about three major versions

in order to make it a compelling mass-market product.

And so I think we're making progress in that direction,

and I feel confident that we'll get there.

CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute,

you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.

There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now that are fast.

Do you see that coming, really, truly,

or just on a few key routes?

EM: There actually are far more charging stations

than people realize,

and at Tesla we developed something

called a Supercharging technology,

and we're offering that if you buy a Model S

for free, forever.

And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't realize.

We actually have California and Nevada covered,

and we've got the Eastern seaboard

from Boston to D.C. covered.

By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive

from L.A. to New York

just using the Supercharger network,

which charges at five times the rate of anything else.

And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop,

to stop time, of about six or seven.

So if you drive for three hours,

you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes,

because that's normally what people will stop for.

So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.,

by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat,

hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.

CA: So your proposition to consumers is, for the full charge, it could take an hour.

So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.

Wait for an hour, but the good news is,

you're helping save the planet,

and by the way, the electricity is free. You don't pay anything.

EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people

to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.

It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles

and then stop for half an hour

and then keep going.

That's the natural cadence of a trip.

CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow.

You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.

What's unusual about that?

EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier,

we have to have sustainable electricity production

as well as consumption,

so I'm quite confident that the primary means

of power generation will be solar.

I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.

We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun,

and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy

for purposes of human civilization.

What most people know but don't realize they know

is that the world is almost entirely solar-powered already.

If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball

at three degrees Kelvin,

and the sun powers the entire system of precipitation.

The whole ecosystem is solar-powered.

CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have,

effectively, thousands of years of sun power

compressed into a small space,

so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar,

and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas,

fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?

EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar

will beat everything, hands down, including natural gas.

(Applause)CA: How?

EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.

CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers.

What are you doing?

EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system

or you can lease a solar system.

Most people choose to lease.

And the thing about solar power is that

it doesn't have any feed stock or operational costs,

so once it's installed, it's just there.

It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.

So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost

of that initial installation low,

and then get the cost of the financing low,

because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the cost of solar.

And we've made huge progress in that direction,

and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.

CA: So your current proposition to consumers is,

don't pay so much up front.

EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front.

We will install panels on your roof.

You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?

EM: Typical leases are 20 years,

but the value proposition is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite straightforward.

It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.

Pretty good deal.

CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer.

No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.

For you, the dream here then is that --

I mean, who owns the electricity from those panels for the longer term?

I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?

EM: Well, essentially,

SolarCity raises a chunk of capital

from say, a company or a bank.

Google is one of our big partners here.

And they have an expected return on that capital.

With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on the roof

and then charges the homeowner or business owner

a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.

CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that power.

You're kind of building a new type of distributed utility.

EM: Exactly. What it amounts to

is a giant distributed utility.

I think it's a good thing, because utilities

have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.

So effectively it's the first time

there's been competition for this monopoly,

because the utilities have been the only ones

that owned those power distribution lines, but now it's on your roof.

So I think it's actually very empowering

for homeowners and businesses.

CA: And you really picture a future

where a majority of power in America,

within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?

EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a plurality of power,

and most likely a majority,

and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.

I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?

EM: More from solar than any other source.

CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?

EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.

CA: Just between us. (Laughter)

EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago,

so in roughly 18 years,

I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.

CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made

with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.

You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.

You decided to build a space company.

Why on Earth would someone do that?

(Laughter)

EM: I got that question a lot, that's true.

People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy

who made a small fortune in the space industry?"

Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.

And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out

the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.

And they'd look at me, like, "Is he serious?"

CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?

EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out.

We came very close to failure,

but we managed to get through that point in 2008.

The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology,

and in particular to try to crack a problem

that I think is vital

for humanity to become a space-faring civilization,

which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.

CA: Would humanity become a space-faring civilization?

So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?

You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?

EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid,

but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.

It was really more from the standpoint of

what are the things that need to happen in order for

the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?

And I really think there's a fundamental difference,

if you sort of look into the future,

between a humanity that is a space-faring civilization,

that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets,

and I think that's really exciting,

compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth

until some eventual extinction event.

CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building

a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.

How on Earth have you done that?

NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?

EM: Well, we've made significant advances

in the technology of the airframe, the engines,

the electronics and the launch operation.

There's a long list of innovations

that we've come up with there

that are a little difficult to communicate in this talk, but --

CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right?

You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interesting to me.

EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think it's

more dangerous to patent than not to patent.

EM: Since our primary competitors are national governments,

the enforceability of patents is questionable.(Laughter) (Applause)

CA: That's really, really interesting.

But the big innovation is still ahead,

and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.

EM: Right, so the big innovation—

CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it, what's happening here.

EM: Absolutely. So the thing about rockets is that

they're all expendable.

All rockets that fly today are fully expendable.

The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket,

but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every time,

and the parts that were reusable

took a 10,000-person group nine months to refurbish for flight.

So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per flight.

Obviously that doesn't work very well for —

CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?

EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages

be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site

and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.

CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM: Yes. (Applause)

And so what a lot of people don't realize is,

the cost of the fuel, of the propellant, is very small.

It's much like on a jet.

So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent

of the cost of the rocket.

So it's possible to achieve, let's say,

roughly 100-fold improvement in the cost of spaceflight

if you can effectively reuse the rocket.

That's why it's so important.

Every mode of transport that we use,

whether it's planes, trains, automobiles, bikes, horses,

is reusable, but not rockets.

So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-faring civilization.

CA: You asked me the question earlier

of how popular traveling on cruises would be

if you had to burn your ships afterward.EM: Certain cruises are apparently highly problematic.

CA: Definitely more expensive.

So that's potentially absolutely disruptive technology,

and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take,

at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.

You'd like to see a colony on Mars.

EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combination

of companies and governments, needs to make progress

in the direction of making life multi-planetary,

of establishing a base on another planet,

on Mars -- being the only realistic option --

and then building that base up

until we're a true multi-planet species.

CA: So progress on this "let's make it reusable,"

how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw.

How's it going?

EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently

with something we call the Grasshopper Test Project,

where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight,

the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.

And we've had some good tests.

CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah.

So that's just to give a sense of scale.

We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash

and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)

CA: All right, let's see that video then,

because this is actually amazing when you think about it.

You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --

EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size

of a 12-story building.

(Rocket launch)

So now it's hovering at about 40 meters,

and it's constantly adjusting

the angle, the pitch and yaw of the main engine,

and maintaining roll with cold gas thrusters.

CA: How cool is that? (Applause)

Elon, how have you done this?

These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity,

Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacularly different,

they're such ambitious projects at scale.

How on Earth has one person

been able to innovate in this way?

What is it about you?

EM: I don't know, actually.

I don't have a good answer for you.

I work a lot. I mean, a lot.

CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.

CA: My theory is that you

have an ability to think at a system level of design

that pulls together design, technology and business,

so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business,

into one package,

synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --

and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident

in that clicked-together package that you take crazy risks.

You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that multiple times.

I mean, almost no one can do that.

Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?

Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from you?

It is truly amazing what you've done.

EM: Well, thanks. Thank you.

Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.

It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.

Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is,

boil things down to their fundamental truths

and reason up from there,

as opposed to reasoning by analogy.

Through most of our life, we get through life

by reasoning by analogy,

which essentially means copying what other people do with slight variations.

And you have to do that.

Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.

But when you want to do something new,

you have to apply the physics approach.

Physics is really figuring out how to discover

new things that are counterintuitive, like quantum mechanics.

It's really counterintuitive.

So I think that's an important thing to do,

and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback,

and solicit it, particularly from friends.

This may sound like simple advice,

but hardly anyone does that,

and it's incredibly helpful.

CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics.

Learn from this man.

Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming to TED.

EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really cool.

Look at that. (Applause)

Just take a bow. That was fantastic.

Thank you so much.