Why Most Traders Fail: The Secret Is There Is No Secret
Summary
TLDRShapiro 强调,交易成功并非依赖于准确预测市场的涨跌,因为预测未来本质上是不稳定的。他比喻说,即使猜对了硬币的正反面,也不能说明预测了未来。相反,关键在于进入风险收益比率对你有利的交易。他分享了自己20多年的交易经验,指出即使只有38%的胜率,但由于赢家的回报率是输家的四倍,长期来看仍然可以获得良好的回报。Shapiro 鼓励投资者理解并实践风险管理、纪律和过程,而不是盲目模仿他人的交易。
Takeaways
- 😀 交易的关键在于长期赚钱,而不是预测市场的涨跌。
- 🔮 预测未来是不可靠的,就像抛硬币一样,即使猜对了也不能证明预测能力。
- 💰 成功的交易依赖于风险收益比,即潜在收益远大于潜在损失。
- 📈 交易者应追求的是长期正回报,而不是短期的盈亏。
- 📊 作者通过20年的交易历史统计,展示了即使只有38%的胜率,通过合理的风险收益比仍然可以实现盈利。
- 🚫 作者强调,他不是来告诉人们何时买入或卖出的,而是帮助人们理解长期赚钱的交易概念。
- 🛡️ 风险管理和纪律是实现长期盈利的关键因素。
- 🤔 即使有连续亏损,也不意味着交易系统失效,这是统计学上的正常现象。
- 📚 作者建议使用他提供的概念和数据来增强个人的交易策略。
- 📢 作者鼓励人们不要仅仅模仿他的交易,而是要理解背后的逻辑和过程。
- 📈 加入拥挤市场报告可以帮助人们学习如何成为更好的交易者,实现长期的风险调整回报。
Q & A
视频中提到的交易中最重要的事情是什么?
-视频中强调,交易中最重要的不是预测市场的涨跌,而是在交易中实现长期的盈利。这需要通过风险与回报的合理配置来实现,即使只有35%的胜率,只要盈利的交易能够带来足够高的回报,长期来看也能获得正收益。
为什么预测市场涨跌不是交易成功的关键?
-因为预测市场涨跌本质上是在预测未来,而预测未来是不可能做到一贯准确的。就像抛硬币一样,即使猜对了一次,也不能说明能够持续预测正确。
视频中提到的风险与回报的配置是什么意思?
-风险与回报的配置是指在交易中,你愿意冒多大的风险(可能的损失)与期望获得的回报(盈利)之间的比例。视频中提到,一个好的交易应该是潜在的盈利远大于可能的损失。
视频中提到的38%的胜率和4:1的回报比是什么意思?
-这是指视频中的交易者在20年的交易历史中,大约有38%的交易是盈利的,而这些盈利的交易平均回报是投入的4倍。即使有65%的交易是亏损的,但因为盈利的交易回报高,长期来看仍然能够实现正收益。
视频中提到的风险管理是什么?
-风险管理是指在交易过程中,通过合理分配资金和控制每次交易的风险,来保护资本不受重大损失。这是实现长期盈利的关键因素之一。
视频中提到的纪律性是什么意思?
-纪律性是指在交易中坚持自己的交易系统和策略,即使在连续亏损的情况下也不放弃。因为即使有亏损,只要交易系统长期有效,就应该继续执行。
视频中提到的交易者如何避免模仿他人交易带来的风险?
-视频中建议交易者不要仅仅模仿他人的交易,而应该使用提供的信息和数据来增强自己的交易策略。因为每个人对交易的理解和经验不同,盲目模仿可能会导致损失。
视频中提到的'拥挤市场报告'是什么?
-'拥挤市场报告'是视频中提到的一个服务或平台,旨在帮助交易者理解长期盈利的概念,如风险管理和纪律性,而不是提供具体的交易建议。
视频中提到的交易者如何看待连续亏损的情况?
-视频中提到,即使交易系统长期有效,也会出现连续亏损的情况。交易者应该理解这是统计上的正常现象,不应该因此放弃自己的交易系统。
视频中提到的交易者对于新手交易者有什么建议?
-视频中建议新手交易者不要寻找能够告诉他们如何一夜暴富的交易建议,而应该学习如何通过风险管理、纪律性和交易过程来实现长期的盈利。
Outlines
📈 交易盈利的核心:风险与回报
第一段视频脚本强调了交易盈利的关键不在于准确预测市场涨跌,而在于实现长期盈利。作者认为,预测未来是不可靠的,因为未来是不确定的。他用抛硬币的例子说明,即使预测正确,也不能保证下一次同样准确。真正的盈利策略是选择风险回报比有利的交易,即潜在收益远大于潜在损失。作者分享了自己20多年的交易经验,指出即使只有38%的胜率,但由于赢家的收益是输家的四倍,长期来看依然可以获得正收益。他还讨论了交易中的统计学,比如连续亏损和盈利的可能性,强调了风险管理和纪律性的重要性。
🚫 避免盲目模仿,建立自己的交易策略
第二段中,作者警告观众不要盲目模仿他的交易,因为即使是经验丰富的交易者也会有连续亏损的时候。他解释说,如果观众在连续亏损后放弃跟随,就会错过随后的盈利交易。作者鼓励观众使用他在视频中讨论的风险管理和训练方法来增强自己的交易策略,而不是仅仅依赖于他人的交易建议。他强调,通过学习和理解长期盈利的概念,观众可以成为更好的交易者,并实现更好的风险调整回报。最后,作者邀请那些对学习这些概念感兴趣的人加入他的'crowded market report',但同时提醒那些只想要交易提示的人不要加入。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡交易
💡风险回报比
💡预测未来
💡胜率
💡盈亏比
💡风险管理
💡纪律
💡过程
💡模仿
💡市场巫师
💡回报
Highlights
交易成功并非依赖于持续正确预测市场涨跌,而是长期盈利的能力。
预测未来并不可靠,就像抛硬币预测正反面一样,成功只是偶然。
交易的核心是风险收益比,即潜在收益远大于潜在损失。
作者拥有20年的交易历史,并强调统计数据的重要性。
作者的交易成功率大约为38%,但赢家的回报是输家的四倍。
即使有连续亏损,长期来看,良好的风险收益比仍能保证盈利。
交易中存在超过11%的几率连续五次亏损。
作者强调风险管理和纪律性对于交易成功至关重要。
交易系统需要一致性,即使面临连续亏损也不能放弃。
作者不提供交易提示,而是教授交易概念和策略。
作者在Market Wizards中的经验不是用来预测市场,而是用来教授交易理念。
作者鼓励使用他的方法和数据来增强个人的交易策略。
作者警告不要仅仅模仿他的交易,因为缺乏经验可能导致不一致的结果。
作者建议使用他的教学来提高个人的交易技能,而不是寻找快速致富的秘诀。
作者强调,即使在连续亏损后,也要坚持交易系统。
作者提供拥挤市场报告和Discord页面上的交易讨论,以帮助交易者学习。
拥挤市场报告不寻求快速致富的交易者,而是那些希望学习长期盈利策略的人。
作者希望交易者通过学习风险管理和纪律性来提高交易技能。
作者提醒交易者,即使在经历了多个所谓市场大师的失败后,拥挤市场报告仍然欢迎他们回来学习。
Transcripts
foreign
[Music]
Shapiro with crowdedmarketreport.com
today is Friday
April 28
2023. I wanted to speak today about what
I think is probably the single most
important thing about trading and that
is to make money in trading over time is
not about picking if a market is going
to go up and down okay I know that seems
weird because obviously getting at the
market right is what's going to make you
money but my argument is that getting a
market right up or down is not something
that you're going to be able to do
consistently because you are predicting
the future and predicting the future is
not something that you were able to do
consistently and I always go back to a
coin flip if they flip a coin and I say
it's going to be heads
and it ends up being heads that does not
mean that I predicted the future okay
that means I had a 50 50 chance and I
got it right and it doesn't change the
fact that my next flip is going to be
exactly the same I'm going to have a 50
50 chance of getting it right that's it
that's all it means and it's the same
thing if you think the motor is going to
go up and it does
it was either going to go up or down and
over time that's not going to work for
you so what is going to work for you
what this game is about is getting into
trades where the risk reward is in your
favor and what I mean by that is the
payout is a lot higher than what you're
going to lose on the trade and that's
what you want over time and I can look
sort of at my trading which I have over
20 years of history for and I run the
statistics and I've talked about this
you know I have about 38 percent winners
and the winners pay off about four to
one so if we just look at some very
simple
statistics on something like that
this is a statistics for something that
has a 35 chance of working and what this
says is that a 35 chance of working
means a 65 chance of of losing so this
is for streaks this means here 65 chance
of having a losing trade while having
five losing trades in a row you know is
over 11 chance so there's a pretty good
chance that at some point in this you're
going to have five losing trades in a
row and the chances of five winning
trades in a row with a 35 chance of
winning is less than one percent okay so
for me the chances of of losing and
losing streaks is clearly a lot higher
than winning streaks but then you get
into the payoff right 35 winner sorry
I'm just reading this what a three to
one payout now my payouts tend to be
closer to four to one but let's go with
35 winners with a three to one payout a
hundred trades okay means 65 percent of
those are going to lose you're going to
lose if you're risking one percent of
trade you're going to lose 65 percent on
those losing trades 35 winners want a
three percent winning is going to give
you 105 so over a hundred trades you
make 105 you lose 65 you make 40 that's
on a 35 winner and that's not a three or
one percent payout
you end up making 40 over 100 trades now
during that period again you go back to
these stats right there's over one
percent chance you could lose 10 in a
row right there's over 10 chance you're
gonna lose five in a row right but over
time
this makes very good returns uh on your
capital and that's the idea that's how
you make money trading and this then
gets into sort of what I am doing in
terms of these videos and also in terms
of the crowded market report okay we are
not and I am not trying to be a service
that tells you what trades to make look
at me I was in Market Wizards therefore
I can predict the future better than
anyone else so buy this sell this buy
this sell this that's not what I'm here
to do there are plenty of people that
will do that for you
um you can go on Twitter or whatever and
they will sell you on the fact that they
have the this incredible ability to see
the future and those would be people to
to go to for that what I am trying to do
is help people understand these concepts
of what really works over time how you
really put up positive returns over time
not only this concept but the concept of
risk management which ties in with this
because this doesn't work without risk
management right three to one doesn't
work with out risk management or four to
one the concept of discipline which is
you have to stay with your system
consistently as you see you got over an
11 chance of losing five times in a row
that doesn't mean that the process is
not working right it just means that
statistically that's what happens
sometimes right these are the concepts I
really try to put on people and help
people to understand and learn through a
crowded market report and through these
videos now I do both in my newsletter
and through our Discord page I do talk
about the trades that I am putting on in
my process okay that should produce
these type of Statistics right but I
consistently encourage people to not
really just mimic what I'm doing for a
number of reasons but let me give you
the easiest reasons this is kind of how
it will go down right you'll come on
there you'll say oh Jason's a guru I'm
going to start taking his trades I put
on a trade it loses I put on another
trade it loses the chance of to losing
trades in a row we see here it's over 42
percent good chance two trades lose now
you back up and you say so I'm down two
percent we're down two percent I say oh
I don't know if this guy's any good what
the hell he just gave me two trades and
I lost two in a row I'm gonna wait so I
put on the third trade you don't take it
I do this one ends up making four
percent all right so now we've had three
trades I'm up two percent you're down
two percent right but that's okay
because now you start to believe hey
maybe he does know what he's doing I'm
gonna triple up on his next trade and
make up what I didn't catch on the last
one well that ends up being a losing
trick now we've had four trades I'm up
one percent you're down five percent
right and it will just keep going on
like this because you don't have the
experience in what I'm doing like I do
so I believe in this and I follow this
process very disciplined because I
believe very strong that over time it's
going to continue to produce the returns
that it's produced you or do not know
that yet and so there will be a huge
mismatch you know
um the other point about this is that
you have to take in order for this to
work every one of the trades right and
it's hard to do you go through a series
here you got to know for an 11 chance of
losing five times in a row you lose five
times in a row suddenly you start
backing off it's just natural right so
it's very hard to do that what I
encourage people
to do is again use the stuff that I'm
talking about not only from risk
management and that type of stuff but
also the the training method that I use
and the data that I use use that to
enhance your trading strategy which a
lot of people have done on our Discord
page and done pretty successfully that's
the more important thing about this
about what I'm trying to do here so
that's kind of the message and usually
at this point
um I say we'd love to see a crowded
market report I'm going to put a little
caveat in here if you are looking
to learn about concepts of how to make
money over time such as risk management
such as discipline such as process then
we would love to see you at crowded
market report if you are looking for a
tip sheet for someone to tell you the
trades or they're going to make you a
millionaire so just follow me then
please don't come to crowded market
report okay go to some of these other
people who sell themselves as Market
gurus and learn that lesson okay and
when you've learned that lesson and that
hasn't worked for you and then you try
another guy and another guy another guy
and that hasn't worked for you then by
all means if you're still interested in
trading and figuring out how to make it
work then by all means come back the
crowded market report join us and I
really feel strongly that we can help
you learn these Concepts that will help
you to make you a better Trader and to
earn much better returns in particular
risk adjusted returns over time okay so
I hope everybody has a good profitable
week this week and we hope to see you
again soon thank you
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