Bajaj Finance & CAMS- Undervalued now? [and 3 other stocks] | Akshat Shrivastava

Akshat Shrivastava
17 Aug 202415:28

Summary

TLDRIn this video, investor Akshat Shrivastava discusses strategic shifts in his portfolio due to market risks. He has sold his small cap index fund, citing high valuations and market conditions, and is now focusing on US stocks and mid to large-cap companies. Akshat shares insights on companies like CAMS and Aavas, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis and avoiding overvalued stocks. He also touches on the potential impact of interest rate cuts on various sectors and provides a macro view of the market's future direction.

Takeaways

  • 📉 Akshat Shrivastava has repositioned his portfolio due to perceived market risks, selling his entire small cap 250 Index fund.
  • 🧐 He is moving towards US stocks and mid-cap to large-cap companies, aiming to rebalance and reposition his portfolio in response to market conditions.
  • 🤔 Akshat has shared insights from his experiences as a full-time investor and hedge fund manager, emphasizing the importance of adapting to market changes.
  • 💰 He has exited his small cap position with a 40% gain, reasoning that the small cap index has seen significant run-ups and is now fairly valued with high market risk.
  • 📊 The small cap index has provided substantial returns over the last four years, but Akshat suggests that the returns may average out to a 24-25% CAGR, indicating a potential slowdown.
  • 🇮🇳 The video discusses the dynamics of the Indian market, where domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been buying mid-cap and small-cap stocks, affecting market trends.
  • 📈 CAMPs is highlighted as a case study for investment, with Akshat noting its potential as the stock market is expected to stabilize or move sideways, benefiting such companies.
  • 🏘️ Aavas Financial Services is still considered a good investment due to its strong revenue and profit, and the potential for lower interest rates to boost its business.
  • 💡 Akshat predicts that companies like Bajaj Finance and consumer durables stocks like Voltas and Whirlpool will benefit from expected interest rate cuts.
  • ❌ He warns against high-risk stocks involved in pump-and-dump schemes and advises caution with overvalued companies like Zomato compared to its peers.
  • 📚 The importance of fundamental analysis, patience, and avoiding overvalued stocks is emphasized for long-term investment success.

Q & A

  • What is the main topic of the video?

    -The main topic of the video is discussing critical changes in the speaker's investment portfolio due to perceived market risks.

  • Why did the speaker sell his small cap 250 Index fund?

    -The speaker sold his small cap 250 Index fund because he believes there is a lot of risk in the markets currently and he is repositioning his portfolio to mitigate this risk.

  • What types of companies is the speaker adding to his portfolio?

    -The speaker is adding US stocks and certain types of mid-cap to large-cap companies to his portfolio.

  • What is Akshat Shrivastava's current occupation?

    -Akshat Shrivastava is a full-time investor who travels across the globe, gains insights, works with high net worth individuals (HNIs), and runs his hedge fund.

  • Why did the speaker decide to cut his entire small cap position?

    -The speaker decided to cut his entire small cap position because the small cap index has seen a significant run-up and currently appears fairly valued, with the market risk looking a bit high from an India investing viewpoint.

  • What is the speaker's view on the future of the stock market in India?

    -The speaker's prognosis as an investor is that the market can be taken sideways with unlikely deep corrections, as stock market returns have become a political issue between two parties.

  • What is the speaker's strategy regarding CAMS and CDSL stocks?

    -The speaker is aggregating CAMS and CDSL stocks, trying to buy them at dips, as he believes these companies are less likely to be hurt unless the stock market is going down significantly.

  • What are the speaker's thoughts on Aavas Financial stock?

    -The speaker believes Aavas Financial is still available at a discount and is a lower-risk investment due to its high revenues and profits, and the potential for interest rate cuts benefiting the housing finance sector.

  • What is the speaker's view on Bajaj Finance and the impact of interest rate cuts?

    -The speaker sees Bajaj Finance as a good investment level currently, expecting the consumer lending space to improve with the anticipated interest rate cuts, which would benefit companies like Bajaj Finance.

  • What are the two themes the speaker has been discussing on his YouTube channel?

    -The two themes the speaker has been discussing are the potential benefit of interest rate cuts on certain stocks, and the performance of consumer durables companies like Voltas and Whirlpool.

  • What is the speaker's advice on high-risk stocks and pump-and-dump schemes?

    -The speaker advises to avoid high-risk stocks and pump-and-dump schemes, as they can be detrimental to investors, especially in the current market conditions.

  • How does the speaker approach the valuation of Zomato compared to its peer Swiggy?

    -The speaker has reduced his position in Zomato due to its higher valuation compared to Swiggy, which he sees as available at a significantly lower price, indicating a potential overvaluation of Zomato.

  • What is the speaker's final advice for investors regarding portfolio management?

    -The speaker's final advice is to study the fundamentals of stocks, avoid overvalued investments, have patience with good stocks, and sell or reduce positions when they become overvalued compared to their peers.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Portfolio Repositioning Amid Market Risks

Akshat Shrivastava introduces the video by discussing significant changes he's making to his investment portfolio due to perceived market risks. He has sold his entire small cap 250 Index fund, which had shown substantial gains, and is now focusing on adding US stocks, particularly mid-cap to large-cap companies. Akshat, a full-time investor and hedge fund manager, shares insights from his interactions with high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and his own portfolio management experience. He emphasizes the importance of rebalancing one's portfolio and provides a specific example of his small cap fund's performance, explaining his rationale for selling based on market analysis and future expectations.

05:01

📈 CAMS as a Case Study for Portfolio Adjustment

The second paragraph delves into a case study of CAMS, a stock that has seen significant gains and corrections. Akshat outlines the importance of fundamental analysis and provides a brief on the company's performance, market conditions, and potential future movements. He discusses the political implications affecting the stock market in India, particularly the conflict between political parties over stock market performance. Akshat suggests that the market is unlikely to see a deep correction and recommends accumulating stocks like CAMS and CDSL at dips, highlighting the importance of a long-term perspective and the potential benefits of an interest rate cut.

10:03

🏦 Analyzing the Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Stocks

In this paragraph, Akshat discusses the impact of potential interest rate cuts on various stocks, including Bajaj Finance and Aavas. He explains that companies in the consumer lending space, such as Bajaj Finance, are likely to benefit from lower interest rates, which could stimulate consumer loans and improve the lending environment. Akshat also touches on the potential benefits for housing finance companies like Aavas in a low-interest-rate environment. He warns against investing in overvalued stocks and pump-and-dump schemes, advocating for patience and careful study of fundamentals before investing.

15:06

🚀 Strategic Stock Rotation and Market Outlook

The final paragraph provides a strategic outlook on stock rotation and the broader market. Akshat shares his personal experience with Zomato, explaining his decision to sell a significant portion of his holdings due to its overvaluation compared to its competitor, Swiggy. He suggests that investors should focus on buying undervalued stocks and selling when they become overvalued. Akshat also hints at a potential market time correction in the coming months or years, advising investors to study the fundamentals, avoid overvalued stocks, and exercise patience for their investments to yield returns.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Portfolio

A portfolio in the context of the video refers to a collection of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and funds that an investor holds. The speaker is discussing changes to his investment portfolio due to perceived market risks, which is central to the video's theme of investment strategy and risk management.

💡Risk

Risk, in the financial sense, is the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. The video discusses the speaker's perception of increased market risk as a reason for repositioning his portfolio, indicating a shift from small-cap investments to potentially less risky mid-cap to large-cap companies.

💡Small Cap

Small-cap refers to companies with a relatively small market capitalization, typically indicating less established firms. The speaker mentions selling his small-cap index fund, illustrating his strategy to reduce exposure to what he perceives as higher risk in smaller companies.

💡Mid-Cap to Large-Cap

Mid-cap and large-cap are classifications for companies based on their market capitalization, with mid-cap being in the middle and large-cap being the largest. The speaker is adding more US stocks from these categories to his portfolio, suggesting a strategy to balance risk and potential for growth.

💡Repositioning

Repositioning in an investment context means changing the composition of an investment portfolio. The speaker is repositioning his portfolio by exiting small-cap investments and moving into mid-cap to large-cap stocks, which is a key action in his risk management strategy.

💡Hedge Fund

A hedge fund is an investment fund that pools capital from accredited investors and uses a variety of strategies to earn active returns 'hedges' for its investors. The speaker mentions running his hedge fund, indicating his professional involvement in investment management.

💡Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs)

DIIs are entities within a country that invest in its financial markets. In the script, the speaker discusses how DIIs have been buying the Indian market, particularly mid-cap and small-cap companies, which is relevant to understanding market dynamics and investment trends.

💡Systematic Investment Plan (SIP)

A SIP is a method of investing in mutual funds in which an investor contributes a fixed amount at regular intervals. The speaker mentions the surge in the SIP market, which has led to increased investment in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, affecting market valuations.

💡Overvalued

An overvalued stock is one that is priced higher than its perceived fair value based on its fundamentals. The speaker talks about avoiding overvalued stocks and selling his position in Zomato when it appeared overvalued compared to its competitor Swiggy.

💡Interest Rate Cut

An interest rate cut is when a central bank lowers its target interest rate, making borrowing cheaper. The speaker predicts that interest rate cuts in the US and India will benefit certain sectors like housing finance and consumer lending, influencing his investment choices.

💡Pump and Dump

A pump and dump scheme is a type of market manipulation where the price of a stock is artificially inflated ('pumped') and then sold off ('dumped') at a higher price. The speaker warns against investing in stocks that appear to be involved in pump and dump schemes.

💡Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating a security's intrinsic value by examining its financial health and other factors. The speaker mentions using fundamental analysis to assess companies like CAMS and CDSL, which is a key part of his investment decision-making process.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. The speaker refers to technicals when discussing stocks like Bajaj Finance, indicating the use of price trends and patterns to inform investment decisions.

💡Consumer Lending

Consumer lending refers to the practice of lending money to individuals for personal use, as opposed to business purposes. The speaker anticipates improvements in the consumer lending space due to expected interest rate cuts, which is why he is interested in stocks like Bajaj Finance.

💡Macro Picture

The macro picture refers to the broad economic trends and conditions that influence financial markets. The speaker discusses the macro picture to convey his prognosis of a potential market correction and its implications for investment strategy.

Highlights

Portfolio repositioning due to perceived market risk.

Sale of small cap 250 Index fund to mitigate risk.

Addition of US stocks and mid-cap to large-cap companies to the portfolio.

Introduction of Akshat Shrivastava, a full-time investor and hedge fund manager.

Explanation of the decision to cut small cap positions based on market performance.

Analysis of small cap index funds' returns and the rationale for their sale.

Discussion on the role of FIIs and DIIs in the Indian market and their impact on mid and small-cap stocks.

Insight into the political influence on stock market movements in India.

Investment in CAMS as a case study for mid to large-cap opportunities.

Market prognosis suggesting a sideways market movement with low probability of a deep correction.

Strategic buying of CAMS and CDSL at market dips.

Aavas financial analysis and its potential benefit from lowering interest rates.

Bajaj Finance's position in the market and its potential growth with interest rate cuts.

TCS and consumer durables stocks like Voltas and Whirlpool as beneficiaries of interest rate cuts.

Warning against high-risk stocks involved in pump and dump schemes.

Zomato's valuation compared to its competitor Swiggy and the decision to rotate investments.

General advice on avoiding overvalued stocks and the importance of patience in fundamental investing.

Invitation to join Akshat's member community and courses for further investment insights.

Transcripts

play00:00

Hi, everyone. Welcome to today's video. On  today's video, I'm going to discuss some of  

play00:03

the critical changes that I'm making on my  portfolio. I believe that there is a lot  

play00:07

of risk in the markets right now, so I'm  repositioning my portfolio. For example,  

play00:12

I have sold my small cap 250 Index fund, the  entirety. It was a lot of money. I had put it  

play00:17

in front of you last year, so I've exited that  completely. I'm adding a lot more US stocks,  

play00:22

and there are certain types of mid-cap to  large-cap companies that I'm adding into my  

play00:26

portfolio. I'm going to talk about to give you a  flavor as to how you can reposition and rebalance  

play00:31

your portfolio. For people who are new to my  channel, my name is Akshat Shrivastava. I am a  

play00:35

full-time investor now. I travel across the globe,  gain insights, work with a lot of HNI's. I'm  

play00:40

running my hedge fund. I get to speak with a lot  of rich people who are running their businesses,  

play00:44

investing money on full-time basis. So whatever  insights that I get from them and through my  

play00:49

own experiences of building and managing a fairly  big portfolio, I try to share it with all of you.

play00:54

So on that note, let us kickstart our video and  let me take you point-wise as to why am I making  

play00:59

certain type of changes on my portfolio. So the  first key major change that I have made on my  

play01:03

portfolio is to cut my entire small cap position.  So I'm going to show you. This is one of my mutual  

play01:08

funds, and this is something that I had built  publicly last year. You can see that I'm sitting  

play01:12

on roughly 40% gain here. XiRR is only 26 now  because I have cut my small cap funds. Now, why  

play01:19

have I cut my small cap index funds? The reason  is very simple, and I will tell you from here.  

play01:24

Since the last one year, since I have purchased,  the small cap gave a run-up of roughly 115%. Out  

play01:30

of this, I was able to capture roughly 90%. If a  snapshot over, I will attach it here also, that  

play01:36

how I was able to capture 90% of this. And since  then, small caps have corrected a little bit,  

play01:45

but not a big deal. For this, you need to take a  slightly long term view. Let me share that also.

play02:00

Let's look at from pre-COVID levels, and the  total run-up is 230, 240. Now, typically speaking,  

play02:07

the return mathematics is that if you're looking  at large gaps, so just like Nifty50 are large  

play02:12

gaps. So this may approximate, yearly return is  12.5% If you look at the small cap mid gaps, it  

play02:26

has been fairly bullish. So for last four years,  we have made how much? Approximately 250%. Okay,  

play02:32

so. Now what has happened pre-2020 is if you  look at the small cap index pace from 2017  

play02:40

all the way till 2020, they had actually come  down. So up your sorry return mathematics if  

play02:45

you put and try to compile and understand what  you will figure out. In this zone, the small cap  

play02:51

mid-caps had fallen. In this zone from 2020  to 2024, very good run up. So this return A,  

play02:58

return B, if you do the mathematics, It comes  out to be fairly average returns. I would say  

play03:02

that it would be around 24, 25% CAGR. Here  we are at best fairly valued. And overall,  

play03:09

the market risk right now looks little bit high,  especially from India's investing viewpoint. Now,  

play03:16

what do I mean by India investing viewpoint?  This is a video that I had done earlier.

play03:20

Please go and check it out. On this video, I  had explained how do these stock prices move  

play03:24

in India. Basically, in the last four years,  what has happened is that FIIs have sold  

play03:29

the Indian market, and DIIs, which  are domestic institutional investors,  

play03:34

they have bought the Indian market. They  typically buy a lot of mid-cap and small-cap  

play03:38

companies. Because they have pension money to  handle and a bunch of other different things,  

play03:44

they look for slightly lower risk investments  because for them, going to India itself is  

play03:48

a slightly higher risk or emerging market  proposition. So they typically hedge their  

play03:53

portfolios and all that. So they primarily deal  with large-cap stocks, futures and options.  

play03:59

So that they can hedge their portfolio. Because  for them, India is just a small market in their  

play04:04

entire portfolio game. So they look for slightly  lower risk, but still high growth options. Diis  

play04:11

look for extremely high risk or high reward  options, so to say. And in the last four years,  

play04:15

the SIP market has gone up like crazy. So a lot of  money has flown into SIPs, and a big chunk of that  

play04:21

money has moved into mid-cap and small-cap.  So right now, I'm not saying that from here.

play04:24

Let me pull up that chart again because this is a  very important points. For example, if we go here,  

play04:25

this is the small cap chart. I'm not saying that  this entire gain will be wiped out. Maybe it will  

play04:30

now consolidate, it will go up, down, and all that  stuff. At least for a few months or a few years,  

play04:35

maybe there can be a consolidation in this  space. So this looks a little bit risky.  

play04:40

There is no massive reward that I'm expecting by  holding a lot of positions in small cap indices,  

play04:46

per se. So therefore, I'm cutting it. I'm  cutting my small cap position. So this is  

play04:51

the first major change that I'm making onto my  portfolio. Now, what is it next that I'm doing?  

play04:55

So by picking up this money, I'm looking for some  mid-cap to large-cap opportunities. A very good  

play05:01

case study would be something like CAMPs. So  I'm going to tell you about CAMPs. If you do  

play05:05

fundamental analysis of CAMPs, what you will  find is this.. Cdsl ,Cams, two of them. And  

play05:15

you can see that it went all the way from  it. My community has benefited from it. My  

play05:19

students have benefited from it because this  is one of the stocks on which I had given.

play05:24

Made lot of 80-90% returns and you can see that  it went all the way from 2000 to roughly 4000.  

play05:33

So now it is correcting a little bit. So let me  just show that to you on charts. What do I mean?  

play05:40

For example, here you will see. So from its peak,  it has corrected by 15%. Now, this is a dip that  

play05:46

is there. So a natural question to ask is that,  Hey, is this a dip or can it correct further?  

play05:51

So for this, this is This is a channel. Maybe  it will correct till here, and then maybe it  

play05:58

will bounce back or it might get broken down. If  we do the industry-level analysis, then we have  

play06:03

to understand in which category, CAMS, CDSL type  of companies operate. They operate in what? They  

play06:10

operate in stock market. If the stock market  is typically going up or if the stock market  

play06:15

is even going sideways, I don't think companies  like CAMHS, CDSL, get hurt. They get really hurt  

play06:21

when the stock market is going down. Now, what  happened is that in India, the entire Sebi issue  

play06:26

is blowing up. Now, this has become a political  war. If the stock market has gone down, if the  

play06:33

30% correction has gone down, then Congress will  say, Look, we're doing this shit, all that stuff.

play06:38

And what the government will  say, You know what? Stock  

play06:41

market is not falling. We have managed the stock  market. So since the stock market is not falling,  

play06:45

there is no scam. So stock market returns  have now become an ego issue and a political  

play06:49

issue between the two parties. So what I  feel or my prognosis as an investor is,  

play06:55

market can be taken sideways. There is  unlikely to be a very deep correction in the  

play06:59

market. When I say deep correction, it means more  than 20% correction in the stock market, which can  

play07:04

be sustained. Now sustained means that the market  is going to be 20%. Now, It is just hanging there  

play07:10

only for maybe one, two years. So I don't think  if you are keeping a three-year viewpoint, there  

play07:15

is any reason to panic on stocks like CAMS, CDSL  types of stock. So I'm still aggregating them,  

play07:21

and I'm trying to buy them at dips. So this  is one block that I have already invested. In  

play07:26

case you guys are interested in learning more  about fundamental analysis, getting quick time  

play07:30

updates from my side, you can do two things.  One is that you can join the member community.

play07:35

That is very important. I give very quick updates  there. If you're someone who is new, who is not  

play07:39

confident about investing in the stock market,  I run live courses. Feedback has been excellent.  

play07:44

Here are some LinkedIn posts you yourself can  go and check. These are genuine posts. You go  

play07:48

and speak with those people. They have attended  my course. They have really benefited from it.  

play07:52

I teach everything from scratch. In case you're  interested, there is a live batch coming up. You  

play07:56

can check the links in the description and comment  box. My batches usually get full within a week of  

play08:01

launching. So in case you're interested, do sign  up quickly. The primary advantage of this course  

play08:06

is the completion rate of online courses  is less than 5%. That is what the MOOCs,  

play08:10

massive online open course data tells us. But  for my courses, it is more than 95%. It is not  

play08:16

by default, it is by design. That because I have  turned this into a live course, you get to engage,  

play08:20

interact. Therefore, the completion rate  is very high. Therefore, you actually get  

play08:24

value out of the course. Anyways, coming back,  I hope that this concept of CAMs is also clear.

play08:30

Then comes another natural question that, okay,  what about stocks like Aavas? Because they are  

play08:34

also small cap. You had earlier purchased  it. Are you exiting your position? What  

play08:37

is it that you're doing? It's a very quick  commentary there also. See, guys, basically,  

play08:41

Aavas is still available at a discount, one  could argue. For example, this is your 200-day  

play08:46

moving average. It's not as if you are buying very  crazy right now. That's one. Second is that this  

play08:52

is a lower-risk Why? I'll help you understand that  point also. See, first and foremost, the revenues,  

play08:58

profits of company is all time high. There is no  issue with revenues, profit of the company. Second  

play09:04

key point is that if you look at the business of  Aavas, what is it into? So you can see it is into  

play09:09

housing finance. Housing finance is what happens?  That people take a loan for their house. And  

play09:13

if the interest rates are low, they will  pick more loans. If they take more loans,  

play09:16

then the revenue of the company is likely to  grow. So in what type of environment or what  

play09:22

type of business cycle will Aavas benefit? Well,  it will benefit when the interest rates go lower.

play09:27

When are interest rates likely to go lower?  Well, in the next three to four months,  

play09:32

US is almost given, is going to cut its interest  rate now. Why? Because the inflation data in the  

play09:39

US has now come at a not historical all time low,  but very recent all time low. So from that note,  

play09:46

it is almost given. Almost every single  economist is now predicting that US is  

play09:50

going to do an interest rate cut. If they  do interest rate cut, what will India do?  

play09:54

India is also likely to cut its interest  rate. And if India cuts interest rate,  

play09:58

then companies like Aavas is going to benefit.  Which other companies are going to benefit? For  

play10:02

example, Bajaj Finance, I'm going to tell you  technicals. For example, if you check, the stock  

play10:07

was in a downtrend here, and this is from 2021.  This is when actually the entire stock market  

play10:13

corrected between 2021 mid to 2023 mid. So that  was a correction time. Stock hasn't moved from  

play10:21

this level to this, this. It's almost how many  years gone? Almost three years gone. 0% return  

play10:26

on the stock.. Now, you'll say, you know what?  Jio is going to eat business into Bajaj Finance.

play10:32

Jio is going to eat business into Bajaj  Finance. Now, that does not mean that you  

play10:37

stop buying companies that are competing with  Jio. Now, Jio will compete with EMC companies  

play10:41

also. Jio might compete on insurance also.  Jio might compete with CAMPs also. Who knows?  

play10:45

So Jio is going to eat all. Now, that does not  mean that this will happen by next year. So this  

play10:49

will take time. What one could potentially do is  that have some geo also. I also I have geo on my  

play10:54

portfolio. And I also have Bajaj Finance. Why?  Because Bajaj Finance is at a good level right  

play10:59

now. It's not as if that you're buying this stock  really expensive. And with interest rate cuts,  

play11:04

what is going to happen? Well, the consumer  lending space is going to improve. Consumer  

play11:09

lending space, for the last few months, maybe like  8, 10 months, RBI has been very active. All that  

play11:19

stuff. But I think that regulatory pressure is  going to ease. Interest rates are going to get  

play11:24

cut. The moment that happens, this lending space  is going to pick up. Consumer loans are going to  

play11:28

pick up. I had been speaking about two themes in  the last five, six months on my YouTube channel.

play11:33

For example, one stock that I discussed  was TCS.. It has already gone up. It has  

play11:38

already gone up by 17, 18%. Open videos, you  go and check my old videos. I had spoken about  

play11:44

TCS. If you have actually benefited from it, do  share your comment because they start trolling  

play11:50

unnecessarily. They have all the things to say  in the world. So this is already going up. Again,  

play11:55

this is a candidate that will benefit by interest  rate cut. This was one. Consumer durables,  

play12:00

Voltas and Whirlpool were two of my picks. They  have done exceptionally well in the last six  

play12:04

odd months. Go and check the data again. Those  have done exceptionally well. Why? Because that  

play12:07

interest rate cut is already getting factored into  the market. Now, what are some high-risk stocks  

play12:12

that you should be avoiding? See, first of the  things is that, in these stocks, there's a pump  

play12:15

and dump. Never touch those stocks  because time is going to be really  

play12:20

tough on these types of stocks going forward.  For example, this looks like a pump and dump. I  

play12:29

made that entire video. You can again go and check  it. And then later, inquiry and it got evolved.

play12:35

So see, this was very renewable. All the way till  2,734. It makes no sense. And now if someone is  

play12:45

buying it here, all I can say is that that  was just a very bad investment move. See,  

play12:51

these type of stocks, I'm sure  that people who listen to me,  

play12:55

they will anyways avoid. So this is not a  challenge. The challenge is to avoid good  

play12:59

companies when they have become or it looks like  that they have become overvalued. Now for this,  

play13:04

I'll tell you very quick Zomato story. See,  if we look at from IPO level, I had purchased  

play13:09

Zomato at around 60. A lot of people who watch my  videos might have done the same. I don't know. So,  

play13:14

from 60 to 260 almost four times. Now I've got my  position, almost 70, 75% of it. Why? Think about  

play13:22

it. Who are the peers of Zomato? Swiggy. What is  the valuation of Swiggy in unlisted space? Well,  

play13:27

it's between 11 to 13 billion dollars is the  valuation that you are getting for Swiggy,  

play13:32

which is a competitor company of Zomato. What  is the valuation of Zomato? If you compare the  

play13:36

number for this, the valuation of Zomato  comes out to be roughly $23, $24 billion.

play13:42

Swiggy is available at 60% price of Zomato. Now  I understand that Zomato might It has slightly  

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better. It has made some very good business moves,  whatnot, but almost double valuation. Does it make  

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sense? To me, it doesn't. I have rotated my money  from Zomato to Swiggy. In case you guys want to  

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know how to do that, tomorrow I will write a post  on my member community, help you understand the  

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challenges, how to do that in the unlisted space.  So these are all the points that I'm executing.  

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The very quick macro picture is that over the next  few months, and maybe over the next few years,  

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there is a very high chance of a time correction  in the market. The market. You have to make  

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your returns. What do I mean by making your  returns? You have to study the stock, study the  

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fundamentals, do not buy overvalued things, have  patience, have patience on good stuff for it to  

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run. If you're buying something undervalued, hold  it. It's fine. It's not end of the world. Hdfc,  

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it's not going to be a year, it's not going  to be a year, it will stop giving run up.

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It is probably one of the deepest undervalued  stocks right now. I ask my return. Whenever  

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they run, they are so fast, that you will not  be able to catch it. You can only catch a good  

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stock as a fundamental investor when it is down.  When a stock has run up, now you are getting the  

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money to invest. At 260, it will be very difficult  for anyone to make good returns from a stock like  

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Zomato if you're buying it now. You always make  money by buying undervalued and then cutting your  

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position or reducing your position or selling your  entire stake when things look overvalued compared  

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to its peers. That's a simple phenomenon. Again,  I teach all these fundamentals on my stock market  

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course. In case you guys are interested, you can  join. Thank you so much for watching. I hope you  

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enjoyed it. You learned something new. If you  did, do press a like button and I'll see you soon.

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