6 Stocks to Bulk Buy or SIP | Akshat Shrivastava

Summary

In this finance-focused video, Akshat Srivastav, an experienced investor and hedge fund manager, discusses investment strategies around SIP-worthy stocks, bulk buying opportunities, and stocks to avoid. He analyzes market trends, including Nifty's valuation, and provides insights on specific stocks like HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Jio Finance, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics and company fundamentals before investing.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker, Akshat Srivastav, discusses three key points about stocks: which to consider for systematic investment plans (SIP), which to bulk buy, and which to avoid.
• 🏦 HDFC Bank is identified as a bulk buy rather than an SIP-worthy stock due to its large market cap and slower growth potential compared to its past performance.
• 📊 The Nifty index is described as fairly valued, with no immediate signs of being overvalued or undervalued, suggesting a balanced market scenario.
• 💡 The importance of understanding the relationship between price and earnings growth is highlighted as a fundamental aspect of making informed investment decisions.
• 🚀 IDFC First Bank is presented as a potential SIP-worthy stock due to its smaller market cap and higher growth potential in comparison to larger banks.
• 🛒 Hindustan Unilever is mentioned as a bulk buying opportunity, with its P/E ratio near its average and the company's strong market position in FMCG.
• 💰 The video emphasizes the significance of macroeconomic understanding and the influence of big investors like Warren Buffett on market sentiment.
• 📊 Technical analysis is briefly touched upon, using Kotak Bank as an example of a stock that has been consolidating and presents bulk buying opportunities.
• 🏥 Max Healthcare is highlighted as a good SIP option due to the growing demand in the healthcare sector and the company's significant revenue and profit growth.
• 🚗 Jio Finance is discussed as a stock with high potential but also high volatility, suggesting a cautious approach and recommending buy-on-dips strategy.
• ⚠️ The script concludes with a word of caution about the challenges and overheated sentiment surrounding the EV market, particularly for Tata Motors, advising investors to be aware of the risks involved.

Q & A

What are the three key points discussed in Akshat Srivastav's video?

The three key points discussed in the video are: 1) Stocks suitable for Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs), 2) Stocks that can be considered for bulk buying, and 3) Stocks that should be avoided.

What does SIP mean in the context of stock investments?

SIP, in the context of stock investments, refers to a systematic approach where an investor regularly invests a fixed amount of money into specific stocks, often with the aim of long-term growth.

What is Akshat Srivastav's educational background and current occupation?

Akshat Srivastav graduated from INSEAD Business School and has been managing a portfolio for approximately 10 years. He currently runs his own hedge fund and shares his investment knowledge through courses and his YouTube community.

What is Akshat's view on the current valuation of the Nifty 50 index?

Akshat believes that the Nifty 50 index is fairly valued at the time of the video. It is neither overvalued nor undervalued based on its price-to-earnings (PE) ratio and market conditions.

Why does Akshat suggest HDFC Bank is not a suitable stock for SIP but a good bulk buy?

Akshat suggests HDFC Bank is not suitable for SIP because it has already reached a large market cap and may not experience the same growth as it did in earlier years. However, it is a good bulk buy due to its current PE ratio and potential for PE expansion.

What is the difference between a SIP-worthy stock and a bulk buy stock according to Akshat?

A SIP-worthy stock is one that is expected to grow significantly over time and is suitable for regular, systematic investments. A bulk buy stock, on the other hand, is one that is currently undervalued or trading at a good price, making it a candidate for a larger, one-time investment.

Why does Akshat consider IDFC First Bank as a good SIP-worthy stock?

Akshat considers IDFC First Bank as a good SIP-worthy stock because of its smaller market cap compared to larger banks like HDFC, indicating a higher potential for growth. Additionally, the banking industry in India has been growing rapidly, suggesting a positive outlook for smaller banks like IDFC First Bank.

What are some factors that make a stock a good bulk buying opportunity according to Akshat?

Factors that make a stock a good bulk buying opportunity include a stock trading at a low PE ratio, the company being well-managed with a clean track record, and the potential for the stock price to recover or grow significantly over time.

What is Akshat's perspective on investing in well-established companies like Hindustan Unilever (HUL)?

Akshat believes that investing in well-established companies like HUL can be a good bulk buy opportunity, especially when they are trading at or near their average PE ratios. These companies are transparently managed and have a history of steady growth, making them reliable investments.

What advice does Akshat give regarding investment in the healthcare sector, specifically Max Healthcare?

Akshat advises that investing in the healthcare sector, such as Max Healthcare, can be beneficial due to the high and growing demand for healthcare services. He mentions that Max Healthcare has shown significant growth in revenues and profits and is likely to continue as the healthcare market consolidates and urbanization increases.

What is Akshat's view on the potential of Jio Finance as an investment?

Akshat views Jio Finance as a stock with high potential but also high volatility. He suggests that it is not suitable for bulk buying at its current stage due to its high PE ratio and the need for significant earnings growth to justify its market cap. Instead, he recommends a buy-on-dips strategy or a long-term SIP approach with caution.

What are the challenges Akshat identifies for the electric vehicle (EV) industry in India?

Akshat identifies several challenges for the EV industry in India, including the high cost of land for infrastructure creation, the need for a widespread network of EV charging stations, and the intense competition within the EV market, particularly from Chinese manufacturers.

How does Akshat approach the analysis of a stock's potential for growth and investment?

Akshat approaches stock analysis by considering factors such as the company's market cap, PE ratio, industry growth potential, the company's historical performance, and macroeconomic trends. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the business model, having confidence in the investment, and considering both the risks and potential rewards.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Introduction and Overview

Akshat Srivastav introduces the video, outlining three main points: stocks suitable for SIP (Systematic Investment Plan), stocks to bulk buy, and stocks to avoid. He emphasizes that the video is educational, not a recommendation, and shares his credentials and experience in finance and macro investing.

05:04

📊 Nifty Levels and Market Sentiment

Akshat discusses the current Nifty levels, explaining that the market has been consolidating for two years and is fairly valued. He addresses the market sentiment influenced by notable investors like Warren Buffett and Michael Burry and stresses the importance of understanding the fundamentals over reacting to market rumors.

10:10

📈 SIP-worthy Stocks: HDFC Bank

Akshat elaborates on the concept of SIP, using HDFC Bank as an example. He explains why HDFC Bank was a good SIP stock in its growth phase but not currently, due to its large market cap and mature growth rate. He suggests it as a bulk buy stock instead, highlighting its potential for PE expansion.

15:14

💼 Banking Sector and SIP Stocks

The discussion continues on SIP-worthy stocks, contrasting HDFC Bank with IDFC First Bank. Akshat points out the growth potential of smaller banks like IDFC First Bank compared to larger, more established banks like HDFC, which he recommends for bulk buying.

20:18

🏥 Healthcare Sector and SIP Stocks

Akshat highlights Max Healthcare as a good SIP stock due to its significant growth in revenues and profits. He explains the sustainability of its business model amidst increasing healthcare inflation and urbanization, which drives demand for organized healthcare services.

25:20

💹 Jio Finance and Investment Strategy

Akshat discusses Jio Finance, its market cap, and its potential for growth. He explains the importance of operational income for justifying its high PE ratio and recommends it as a buy-on-dips stock due to expected volatility. He cautions against bulk buying at its current high valuations.

🚗 Tata Motors and EV Market Challenges

The video concludes with a discussion on Tata Motors and the challenges of the EV market. Akshat explains the infrastructure issues in India and the competitive nature of the global EV market. He advises caution with Tata Motors, emphasizing the stock's overheated status and limited upside potential.

Keywords

💡SIP (Systematic Investment Plan)

A SIP is a method of investing in which a fixed amount is invested in a financial asset at regular intervals. In the context of the video, the speaker is discussing which stocks could be suitable for such a plan, emphasizing the importance of selecting stocks that can provide steady growth over time. The example given is HDFC Bank, where the speaker explains the logic behind not SIP-ing in it due to its current market position.

💡Bulk Buy

Bulk buying refers to purchasing a large quantity of a stock at once, often when the stock is considered undervalued or when there is a strong belief in the company's future growth. The video discusses certain stocks that the speaker believes are currently in a 'bulk buying zone,' such as HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, based on their current market valuations and potential for price appreciation.

💡Nifty

Nifty is an index that represents a weighted average of 50 of the 1600 companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India. It is used to gauge the overall performance of the Indian stock market. In the video, the speaker discusses the Nifty levels to determine whether the market is overvalued or undervalued, stating that it is 'fairly valued' at the time of the recording.

💡Macro Investor

A macro investor is someone who makes investment decisions based on economic indicators and trends, rather than on the performance of individual companies. The speaker identifies himself as a macro investor, which influences his perspective on the market and the stocks he discusses in the video.

💡PE Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio)

The PE ratio is a valuation ratio calculated by dividing the market value per share by the earnings per share. It is used to determine if a stock is overvalued or undervalued. The video mentions the PE ratio in the context of evaluating the valuation of Nifty and individual stocks like HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank.

💡Market Cap (Market Capitalization)

Market capitalization is the total market value of a company's outstanding shares of stock. It is used to determine the relative size of a company. The script discusses the market cap in relation to HDFC Bank and how it has grown over time, affecting its suitability as an SIP investment.

💡CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

CAGR is the rate of return that would be required for an investment to grow from its initial to its ending value over a specified time period, assuming all incomes were reinvested. The speaker uses CAGR to describe the expected growth rate of HDFC Bank, suggesting a more modest growth compared to its past performance.

💡FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods)

FMCG refers to consumer goods that are sold quickly and at relatively low cost, such as packaged foods, beverages, and household goods. The video discusses the FMCG sector, specifically mentioning Hindustan Unilever, as an area where volume growth is occurring, making it a potential bulk buy opportunity.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used in the stock markets to evaluate securities for investment or trading purposes by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. The speaker refers to technical patterns when discussing bulk buying opportunities for stocks like Kotak Bank and the potential gains from such investments.

💡Margin of Safety

Margin of safety is a principle in investing that suggests that an investor should only buy a stock when it is priced significantly lower than its intrinsic value, providing a cushion against losses. The speaker mentions the concept of margin of safety when discussing the investment in Jio Finance, advising against buying at 'absolute crazy prices' and emphasizing the need for caution.

💡EV (Electric Vehicle)

EV refers to an electric vehicle, which is a vehicle that uses electric motors and batteries for propulsion. The video discusses the challenges and misconceptions associated with investing in the EV market, particularly in relation to Tata Motors, and cautions against the overheated sentiment surrounding EV stocks.

Highlights

Discussion on three key investment strategies: SIP-worthy stocks, bulk buying stocks, and stocks to avoid.

Introduction of the speaker, Akshat Srivastav, with a background in finance and experience in managing a portfolio and running a hedge fund.

Emphasis on understanding the logic behind investment decisions rather than just following recommendations.

Analysis of the Nifty levels and its current valuation state, described as fairly valued.

Contextualization of Warren Buffett's cash position and market impact, advising against overreaction to big investor moves.

Explanation of the difference between price and earnings growth, and the importance of this distinction for investors.

Case study of HDFC Bank as an example of a stock suitable for bulk buying rather than SIP due to its growth phase and market cap.

Discussion on the potential for PE ratio expansion as a driver for stock price increases even without earnings growth.

Introduction of IDFC First Bank as a potential SIP-worthy stock due to its smaller market cap and growth potential.

Analysis of the FMCG sector, specifically Hindustan Unilever, as a bulk buying opportunity based on its P/E ratio and market position.

Technical analysis of stock patterns and resistance/support lines as a method for identifying bulk buying opportunities.

Importance of investing in fundamentally strong companies with good management and clean operations.

Discussion on the healthcare industry's growth and Max Healthcare as a SIP-worthy stock due to its consistent revenue and profit growth.

The impact of urbanization on the healthcare sector and the potential for organized healthcare providers to grow.

Introduction of Jio Finance as a stock with high market cap and potential, but also high volatility and risks.

Analysis of the challenges and opportunities in the EV market for companies like Tata Motors, highlighting the need for caution.

Advice on investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding the business and having confidence in the investments.

Transcripts

. Hi everyone. Welcome to today's video.  On today's video, I'm going to discuss  

three things. Number one, that which stocks you  can possibly SIP. Sip means that, for example,  

if you're getting your salary and if you are  looking to put that money into the market,  

then regularly which stocks you could possibly  consider buying. So this is one. Second key point,  

that which stocks you could bulk buy.. Which  stocks would these be and why? Third and finally,  

which stocks you should avoid. This third part  is not a big part. So I'm going to speak about  

all these three parts on today's video.  For people who are new to my channel, my  

name is Akshat Srivastav. I graduated from insead`  business school. I learned a lot of finance. Now,  

approximately for the last 10 years now, I've  been managing a fairly decent size portfolio. Now,  

I run my own hedge fund. I travel across the  world. I understand investing through different,  

different lenses. I study the macroeconomics.  So I'm a macro investor. I share all these  

learnings through my courses, through my  YouTube member community. I try to educate  

people fundamentally, and that is what  the goal of this video will be as well.

So this is not a recommendation video. I will  help you understand the logic behind things. So  

if you like it, do consider number one, liking  this video, and number two, subscribing to the  

channel. It's okay. So let's begin. And the  first and foremost thing that you need to  

understand is the Nifty levels because Nifty is  overvalued, undervalued, this, that stuff. See,  

guys, basically, Nifty is here and it has been  consolidating in this range since when? For  

the last two years, the Nifty PE ratio has been  almost in this same zone. For the last two years,  

even now, Nifty has been consolidating. It is  neither overvalued, this is neither undervalued.  

According to me, this is fairly valued right  now. Now, of course, going forward in the future,  

panic create. For example, right now, a lot  of talk is happening that Mr. Warren Buffett  

is sitting on massive amount of cash. He has  liquidated some of his position on Apple stock.  

So crash. No. So Mr. Warren Buffett had liquidated  his positions even after 2020. And then he was  

sitting on cash for approximately one, one and  a half years. He missed a major market rally.

I'm not saying that he's a bad investor  or something. Please don't start all that  

fight. I'm just helping you understand the entire  context. And every day, some big ticket investor,  

for example, Mr. Michael Burry, he constantly  says negative things about the market.. See,  

guys, you have to be reasonable. The point  and a more practical perspective is that  

if you are a big ticket investor, let's say  that if you have 100 crores in the market,  

even when you are trying to convert  more into cash positions, you will not  

cut more than 20% of your positions. Now,  typically speaking. Now, on top of that,  

if every year this big investor is making  10 crores, they will just put it under the  

mattress and go to sleep. No. Inflation, they  still keep on investing in a sensible manner.  

So which brings us to point number two. But  let me close point number one. That's see,  

right now, the market is neither undervalued,  neither overvalued. You don't need to be hyper  

scared. You don't need to be overjoyed. That is  the price component. But check it in context of  

earnings. If earnings are going up and therefore  the price is going up, there is no issue.

But if the price is going up and the earnings  are going down in the market, that's a problem.  

So knowing these fundamental points is what is  going to give you confidence. I hope that this  

first point is clear. Now let's move on to second  key point. That okay, what are some SIP-worthy  

stocks? And can you give some commentary? Yes. So  I'll I'll take a quick here. So let's start with a  

simple story. And let's talk about HDFC Bank. See,  I'm not SIP-ing in HDFC Bank first and foremost,  

and I'll quickly explain you the logic behind it.  See, the best time to SIP something like HDFC Bank  

was somewhere here when it was in a growth phase..  They got crushed very badly, all that stuff. And  

after that, there was a massive recovery. So for  example, if you would have purchased or did SIP  

on something like HDFC Bank, it was a smaller  bank to begin with. And then if you would have  

continued to hold it in the entire bull run,  it almost like, how much money did it make for  

you? It almost ten-egged your money. So again, I  will just mark this region down somewhere here.

Here you purchased and you continued to invest it  here.. But it's not as if you can buy it at the  

absolute bottom and sell it at the absolute top.  Basically, the idea is that you keep on putting  

money on a systematic basis. And instead of 12Xing  your wealth, this would probably 4X, 5X your  

wealth, which is very good. Now, what you need  to understand here is very simple. That's see,  

back in 2008, 2009, HDFC had a smaller market  cap. But market cap would have been very less.  

It would have been a fraction of what it is right  now. So this bank could almost 2X, 4X in size. So  

this was possible back then. Number two, there  was some good stuff was there. And basically,  

a lot of good things was happening in the banking  industry, especially private banks in India. And  

the growth rate of this industry was fairly  high. The banking growth rate has been very  

high in India in the last one and a half. This was  overall a growth stock. So the SIP that is usually  

done on a growth asset. Now tell me that, hey,  how much will HDFC Bank grow in market cap by?

I'm not saying that it will not grow. It will  definitely grow. It might double in size,  

but that might happen due to PE expansion, not  necessarily due to earnings doubling and all  

that stuff. A cheap performance a bank, you can  expect, let's say, a 15% CAGR growth on the bank,  

but it's not as if that it's a very small bank and  it will keep on doubling every four or five years,  

all that stuff. Therefore, it is not an  SIP stock as per my understanding. Now,  

it is a bulk buy stock. Now, what is the meaning  of bulk buy?. So there is likely to be a P/e is  

what? Pe is around maybe 16, 17. So there  is likely to be a PE, there is a room for  

improving in price. So earnings, let's say  it stays constant. The PE ratio can still  

go from 17 to 24 with zero growth in earnings.  So therefore it is in a bulk buying zone. Why?  

Because as of the money, the banking, private  banking stocks are going to remain at 17 PE,  

this, that stuff. Why? It has been the lowest  PE since... Since when? Since since even here.

It is at less than that level. Same is the  case in Kotak Bank. Same is the case in a  

bunch of other private sector banks. So these  are at bulk buying levels, so to say. Now,  

what becomes a good SIP-worthy stock? So on  the flip side, if we consider something like,  

let's say IDFC First Bank.. I have repeated  this because I want you guys to make money. See,  

here the market cap is What was HDFC's  market cap? It was 11 lakh crore. Now,  

there is almost a 20x or 20 times difference  between HDFC first bank market cap and HDFC  

bank's market cap. So if you have to get a SIP,  then where do you think growth will improve?  

For example, a good phase in banking, then do  you think or do you not think that IDFC first  

bank will literally double in literally  two years? Then HDFC bank doubling in No,  

guys. Hdfc Bank is a very good bank. I  have bought it in bulk. I am keeping it,  

and it will grow in value. Why? Again, I keep on  showing it, so I'll be very quick here. Hdfc Bank.  

For example, in the last four or five years, has  it been able to double its earnings net profits?

Yes, it has been. Technically, in the  last four years, for example, in 2019,  

what was the stock price? You have to look.  2019, the stock price was roughly 1,300. Now,  

what is the stock price? It is 1,400 something,  despite revenues doubling, despite profits  

doubling. Under no circumstances is HDFC a bad  bank, but it is not an SIP type of a thing because  

this means for a fairly long period of time,  it might just consolidate again. So therefore,  

you need to buy these type of good stocks. For  example, HDFC Bank, Kotec, when either technical  

patterns are getting formed or when you see a  bulk buying opportunity. Let me give you another  

example of a bulk buying opportunity, which is  Hindustan Unilever. So I'm. I'll just quickly  

cover it and explain you the funder. Therefore,  I'm repeating the examples. Now see, here again,  

if you take a look at the P/e ratio, it is  almost falling to its average P/E. You're not  

buying this stock at crazy valuations. Problem,  when you are buying HDFC Bank or Access Bank or  

good companies like Hindustan Unilever,  even if you go and read 20 or whatever,  

annual report this, that, you will not be  able to uncover any scams and all that.

These are cleanly run firms. They are in the  public light. The only issue which happens in  

these type of companies is that valuation goes up  very high. If you are bulk buying these type of  

stocks at good levels, you will make good money.  That is the bottom line. Now, I'm not saying. I  

don't know. It might take like six months. It  might take one year for stock price recovery,  

whatever it is. But right now, if we go back  to FMCG space, so the volume is coming up. I  

had made an entire video on HUL, go and watch it.  So volume growth is happening. Profit growth when  

it comes to HUL stocks, because they are able  to price their products really well. In fact,  

during COVID also, or just after COVID, they  were able to increase their product prices  

by 10 to 20% in a very natural response..  Then comes a very natural response.. See,  

it really depends from stock to stock perspective.  But let me still give you a very quick idea. So  

let me pick the example of Cotec Bank. Again,  this is at a bulk buy level, according to me.

I have already bulk bought it. Now it's your  call. What do you want to do with it? This is  

not a recommendation. All that stuff. See, here is  where we are, technically speaking. And if I just  

have to draw the pattern, this is the resistance  line. Resistence is the one that touches it and So  

you can see this. This is the support line. And  the stock has been trading from almost 2021,  

it has been almost 3.5 years, roughly 3.5  years, 0%, in fact, negative %, because  

I mean, here I guess talk. So how much  returns can be made? So if this technical  

pattern would have sustained, so ideally this  stock should have reached somewhere here. So  

the gain potential from here, because  stock right now is somewhere here. So  

all these are bulk buying opportunities as per my  understanding. Now a natural question will come,  

can you write it on a stamp paper and give me  that today if I invest in HDFC Bank or HUL and  

all these stocks, I will make money. No, I cannot  write. Why? Because you need to have logic. You  

need to have confidence to invest. This is the  same analysis I was giving for a stock like Meta.

Again, I will link the video here. Go and  watch it.. When it started running in a year,  

it ran like 150%, right? So that's how fast even  big companies can run. So please do not make the  

mistake of thinking that HUL cannot double  in price, HDFC Bank cannot double in price  

quickly. It can because those gains, they are  deliberately held. They are not allowed to run  

for a little bit. So that's typically how  it happens. Because if it were that easy,  

it doesn't work that way. Then everyone would  be rich. So you need to have an understanding  

of technicals. You need to have an understanding  of business. You need to have faith, confidence,  

and you need to know the stuff that you are  betting on. I teach all this on my investment  

course. In case you guys are interested,  it's four-day intensively taught course.  

You guys can check out. The next batch is about  to start, so you guys can check the links in the  

description and comment box. My batches fill  out very quickly. The reviews are excellent  

for these courses. I will play some reviews for  you. You guys can go and check it out yourself.

In case you're someone who is investing more than  4-5 lakh, a year, then these are ROI-positive  

courses. Roi means, for example, if I'm able  to help you make additional 1, 1.5, 2% return,  

minimum, so you will get a lot of money from  the course. So please consider it from that  

lens. This is not a push that you buy my course  or something like this. All I'm saying is that  

everything is practically, fundamentally Why?  Because I myself show my PnL. Because every year  

I reveal it. So I'm an industry practitioner. I  actually put my own money on the line. I put my  

funds money on the line. I get those learnings  and I share it with my students. It's okay. So  

now let's continue with the I had a talk  of SIP-worthy stocks now. You have said,  

what are some SIP-worthy stocks? So IDFC  first, which is a very good SIP-worthy  

stock. Number two, what you can do is,  let's see, you might now think about,.  

Because then what will happen is that they  might not double. This is what you told us. No,  

you need to understand the context. So I'm  going to give you a Max health care case.

And this is a stock that I'd purchased  roughly 6-8 months back. I had also  

explained the rationale of buying it on my  member community. And in the last one year,  

this stock has given rocket returns. So  this has made very good money. And what was  

happening was that the healthcare industry,  a lot of money was coming in. For example,  

last year, insurance became really expensive.  I used to say it out very loudly,. Healthcare  

inflation itself is 12, 14%. Now, what is  the meaning of healthcare inflation being 12,  

14%? It means that if the general inflation in  the economy, that is 6, 7%, healthcare products,  

that inflation is double.. Now, earlier, you used  to pay like 1,000, now, because it is growing at  

12%, in five years, the cost of health care  will double, and it will keep on doubling if  

inflation keeps going up at roughly 12%. So that  is how fast the inflation is growing. Now, the  

problem that ends up happening is that basically,  if you look at the market cap of Max Health, now,  

this is like 81,000 crore company. This is  not a small cap, mid cap type of a company.

This is a reasonably sized player in the market.  Now, if you look at this, you will know that it  

doubling its revenues, profits. The short  answer is, in fact, in the last three years,  

it has almost four times. It has increased  its revenues. Almost how many times? Almost  

20 times. It has increased its profits. Now,  a natural question is, is this thing cyclical?  

Maybe COVID over it, people started spending a lot  more money on health care, and now they will not  

spend. No, so this is not like vaccine business.  I mean, Max health care is into hospitals. For  

example,. So you'll say that it is engaged in  providing health care services through primary  

care clinics, multispeciality hospitals. So your  hospital business. Now this is highly sustainable.  

Now you need to ask yourself,. It has almost  increased by four times in the last three years.  

Almost every year, double. Why is this happening?  Now think about it that Up until very recently,  

especially like pre-COVID, there was a lot of  prevalence of very small hospitals. These are,  

in fact, compounders used to become doctors.  In fact, if you go to tier 2, tier 3 cities,  

villages, compounders act like doctors there.

. So this was unorganized health care, one  could say. Now, much of that health care is  

getting converted into organized space. This is  one. Second key point is a lot of migration to  

urban localities have happened. For example,  just say, the big chain of hospitals is not  

there in Goa. They're a handful. But in Delhi,  there are almost every major hospital is there..  

From there, they will make a lot of money. So  as cities get more urbanized, pollution problem,  

duniavargi problems, by default, people have no  other choice but to avail treatments at these  

type of hospitals only. So this trend is likely to  stay. The only reason why this trend will fall off  

is if de-urbanization problem happens in India, if  satellite city starts to come up, then expansion  

and all that stuff, and their per hospital profit  will come down. So expanding that franchise,  

so to say, it is already stable for something like  Max, Apollo, all these stuff, and they are going  

to be consistent compounders from this point.  It's unlikely that they don't have a business  

of 10,000 crores by the next 2, 3 years.  So this stock is also likely to double.

So you could possibly put money in an  SIP mode. Now, I will make a detailed  

post tomorrow on the member community.  Again, you guys can check the links in  

the description and comment box to join it. I  give more detailed in-depth macro commentary,  

but I will introduce you to a couple of more  stocks here. So one stock, which is Jio finance.  

I am also an investor, by the way. I had made  very good money on JIO finance already. Again,  

I had made all the announcements in the member  community. Now, JIO finance should be bulk buy,  

should be SIP. See, I'm not doing either.  Now, in my case, the situation is that I  

have already put a big chunk of money in JIO  finance to begin with. I have a relative margin  

of safety. Here are three, four key points  that you should know about Jio Finance. Now,  

one is the market cap point. See, the market  cap of the company is already 2.25 Lakh crore.  

That is how big JIO finance has already become.  Right now, their revenue from operation is close  

to nothing. Why? Because their businesses  are not established yet. Most of the money  

that they are making is from their cash flow  from investing and cash flow from financing.

Now, what does this mean? All that  stuff, you Basically, going forward,  

what is going to happen is that the onus of  proving this market cap on Jio finance has to  

be borne by OpEx income. So operational income  Basically, now, if you break apart the model,  

what you will see is, and this was an interesting  point here. So for example, here you will see,  

and I will highlight this section. This section is  very important. The Jio FIn is a holding company  

of what? Of insurance, broking, JIO payments  bank, JIO payment solution, reliance industry,  

etc. And your broking business may be, AMC  business may be, etc. Now, AMC business,  

business, business, business, business. The first  phase of growth of JIO finance was a sentimental  

push because everyone was almost certain JIO  finance regulation to handle. And it has. It's a  

2.25 Lakh crore. It's almost three times that  of max health care. Now this is digestible,  

one could say. As per your understanding,  everyone would have their own perspective.  

My simple point is that if JIO finance  is 50% market cap of HDFC Bank,  

I will not worry because HDFC Bank  to get to that point of market cap.

JIO finance has a lot of connections. It  already has a lot of regulatory clearances,  

and brand building, whatnot. So 50% of the market  cap is not an issue. I'm giving you approximation.  

I'm not going to give you a business model,  how will I analyze it? So I'm giving you  

approximation. I'm giving you approximation.  I'm giving you approximation.. After that, what  

is going to happen is that see, this PE has to be  justified. Right now, this PE is at 140. Now, just  

for context, if you look at Angel One's PE, etc.  Their PE must be around like 21, 25,. So in order  

for the stock not to crash and all that stuff,  earnings have to improve quite aggressively. And  

what type of earnings? Well, this has to be cash  flow from operations. This cannot be cash flow  

from investing or cash flow from financing. Now,  this will be tested. So this has to to justify  

the market cap of the company, because it's my PE  and all that stuff. So this stock is going to have  

a lot of volatility. So this is the bottom line.  So for me, this is a buy on dips type of a stock.

This is not a bulk buy anymore, because if  I just quickly comment on the stock price,  

the stock price in the last one odd year, it has  gone from 242 all the way till 380. So almost  

like 80, 90% run up. Many people have played  around with the sentiment of the stock. This  

is. They are expanding everywhere. They have a  partnership with BlackRock, etc. So of course,  

the earning is going to go up, no doubt about  that. The only issue that remains to be seen  

is at what rate are they able to double the  earnings at every two to years? That remains to  

be seen because that is what the expectation  of the market is from a JIO finance stock.  

This is a very good buy on dips type of a stock.  This is a type of stock where you have to do  

margin of safety investing. Now, what exactly is  that? I will write a note next week on my member  

community. But basically, if you are buying it at  absolute crazy prices, I will go and buy it. No,  

you will go on these type of stocks. Don't do  that. They will exhibit a lot of volatility.

Now, you might be something that, you know what,  boss, I'm going to do SIP on JIO finance. Then  

it depends on the duration of that SIP. For  example, if you're of the viewpoint, I'm going  

to hold this stock for anyways 10 years.. You  keep on doing SIP, most likely it is likely  

to go up only. That should not be a problem. But.  The final point, we have already run out of time,  

I think, but I will still give very high, given  the very high PE of the stock, that you need to  

be a little bit cautious. Do not bulk buy at this  stage. That is what I would say. But then that is  

my So number one, if you take a look at the stock  run-up. So stock run-up has happened from Rs.180  

all the way till ₱963. So almost seven, eight  times it has happened in the last four years.  

Now, the reason is what? Now, the reason  is that everyone kept on saying, EV growth,  

Tata Motors, up has gone. Now, almost 70%  of the money that Tata Motors make is from  

its Jaguar Landrover business.  It is not necessarily an EV play.

I think they I see EV cars, therefore, Tata Motors  will as a price. Now this is dangerous because  

of that. So this is point one. But the sentiment  says, I see EV cars, therefore, Tata Motors will  

as a lot of challenges. For example, and you  are a lot confused, so I'm just going to keep  

it at a very high level. I might make a separate  video on this topic, but I will just state two,  

three points very, very bluntly and feel free to  disagree. No problem there. But please keep the  

discussion reasonable and don't confuse people  who are just reading it and they are newcomers,  

all that. So number one problem is the  four-wheeler infrastructure creation issues.  

For example, China, when EV charging points are  going to be, infrastructure layout, US, this is  

driven by data. You have to plant those  EV stations and EV charging stations,  

all that stuff. Now, India announced. For example,  

you can possibly drive like 350 km or something  like this on a full tank. So long distance. So  

petrol pump, you have to make it an EV charging  station. They were not built on any study per se.

They crop up because when it comes to conventional  automobiles, the range is fairly wrong. For  

example, you have a petrol, then you can. If you  actually say, we will convert it to EV charging  

points, all that stuff, might not be suitable.  That's point one. Point two, you might say,  

maybe we'll bring new infrastructure in. Do you  know the cost of land at a highway in India? It's  

one of the most expensive in the world. Why?  Because India has a very densely populated,  

concentrated It's not that easy. So all these  challenges are there in terms of infrastructure  

creation. It has got nothing to do with the fact  that we cannot create good EV infrastructure.  

We can, but there are legitimate problems in  India because our densely populated landmass.  

America is almost three, four times India's  landmass. China is very big in terms of land area,  

all that stuff. So building that infrastructure  is easier there compared to building that in  

India. So this is a major problem. Number  two point is that in the EV segment,  

it is a net loser industry. For example, it's not  as if 10 million vehicles are sold in the world.

These are conventional. Now 50 million EV vehicles  will be sold in the world because it's EV. No, the  

market size will remain the same only, whether you  drive conventional automobiles or EV automobiles.  

But the problem is that in this. You don't  know about the market prospects in the  

future, that who is going to come in, etc. Until  now, Tesla is going to be the number one player.  

Even Elon Musk himself is saying, you know  what? That Chinese is what I'm going to be  

scared of, because they will be able to manage the  competition, and the cost of production is lower,  

etc. Etc. Et cetera. So a lot of competition  is coming into this mix. So please be a little  

bit cautious. I'm not saying not to buy  it or something like this or sell it or  

something like this. This is your call. All I'm  simply telling you is that this is a slightly  

overheated stock as per my understanding. The  upside is very less compared to the downside.  

So that's what I would close the conversation at.  I hope that you enjoyed this video. If you did,  

do press the like button and subscribe  to this channel, and I'll see you soon.