China Is Leaving Africa Behind

Summary

本视频探讨了中国是否在控制非洲的问题。自本世纪初以来，中国以借款形式在非洲进行大量投资，成为非洲最大的债权国。这些借款通常以自然资源作为抵押，引发了关于中国利用债务陷阱以获得政治和经济利益的争论。然而，视频也指出，这种对中国控制论的担忧被夸大了。实际上，中国在非洲的投资正在减少，部分原因是这些大型投资项目并未带来预期的收益，同时非洲国家对中国的总体债务占比较小。视频通过分析中国与非洲的贷款和投资关系，挑战了中国新殖民主义的观点，并提出中国在非洲的角色更复杂，且双方均有收益和损失。

Takeaways

• 🌍 中国已经成为非洲最大的债权国，某些国家如肯尼亚，中国持有其75%的双边债务。
• 💰 过去几年，中国通过借贷而非赠与的方式，向非洲大量提供资金，这些债务可能使非洲国家对中国产生依赖。
• 🛤️ 从21世纪初开始，中国的对非洲的控制故事开始，随着中国作为世界工厂的地位确立，开始寻找新的投资地点，非洲成为其主要目标。
• 📉 2008年全球金融危机后，西方国家的利率降至负值，导致中国投资的主权债券收益率下降，促使中国将目光转向非洲。
• 🏗️ 中国在非洲的投资主要集中在基础设施建设上，这是其新丝绸之路项目的一部分，旨在通过建设基础设施扩展其全球商业影响力。
• 🔋 非洲的自然资源，如锂和硅，对于中国新兴工业，特别是微芯片和可再生能源行业至关重要。
• 💵 很多非洲国家对中国的债务是通过自然资源开发权作为抵押的，如果这些国家无法偿还债务，中国则可能获得这些自然资源。
• 🌐 中国提供的贷款通常不要求像国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行那样的支付保证，但这种做法被批评为可能是出于获取自然资源和政治利益的目的。
• 📉 自2016年以来，中国对非洲的投资和贷款有所减少，从一年近300亿美元降至2020年的不到50亿美元。
• 🚧 中国在非洲的许多项目经常面临过高预算、延期和腐败问题，这可能解释了中国公司越来越多地对这些项目采取风险防范措施。
• 📊 虽然中国是非洲最大的双边债权国，但实际上，非洲国家的大部分债务（60%）是国内债务，而中国的债务不到这些国家公共债务总额的6%。

Q & A

中国是否在控制非洲？

虽然这个问题听起来像是阴谋论，但实际上并不是。中国过去几年确实在非洲大陆上投入了大量资金，这些资金主要是贷款形式，而不是无偿援助。北京已经成为非洲最大的债权国，在某些国家，如肯尼亚，中国的贷款占到了所有双边债务的75%。

为什么中国要在非洲投资？

2008年全球金融危机后，西方的利率进入负值，中国投资的主权债务不再盈利，因此中国开始寻找新的投资地点。非洲国家被视为一个巨大的机会，不仅因为财务上的回报，还包括商业、工业乃至政治上的利益。

中国在非洲的投资有哪些形式？

中国的投资主要通过一带一路项目，这是一个价值数千亿美元的巨大投资计划，旨在建设新的基础设施，扩展其全球商业触角。在非洲，这种投资主要集中在自然资源开发和基础设施建设上。

非洲国家对于中国的贷款有何反应？

非洲国家因为无法在西方获得低成本贷款而面临财务困境，因此它们需要资金来发展基础设施和教育等，从而接受了中国的贷款。虽然这些贷款带来了发展机会，但也使得一些非洲国家对中国产生了高度的债务依赖。

中国的贷款策略是否存在问题？

批评者指出，中国的贷款策略可能是利用其贷款国的地位，通过贷款获得自然资源开采权作为抵押，这种做法被称为“债务陷阱”。但实际上，中国在非洲的投资并没有完全符合这一理论，且中国也面临投资回报减少的问题。

中国是否正在放弃非洲？

自2016年以来，中国已经开始减少对非洲的投资和贷款，从一年近300亿美元降至2020年的不到50亿美元。这表明北京对非洲资源的策略可能正在结束。

中国在非洲投资减少的原因是什么？

中国在非洲的投资减少可能是因为这些投资项目变成了巨大的资金黑洞，许多中国公司在非洲的项目亏损严重，加之非洲经济增长停滞，使得这些投资的回报率大大降低。

中国在非洲的投资对非洲有利吗？

尽管中国的一些投资项目遇到了问题，但广泛的学术共识认为，向非洲政府提供贷款通常对这些国家的增长有正面影响。因此，中国的投资实际上帮助了非洲国家，尽管它也为中国带来了获取自然资源和政治上的某些优惠的机会。

非洲国家的债务主要由谁持有？

非洲国家的债务60%是国内债务，即主要是向本国公民借款，而不是外国。而中国虽然是最大的双边债权国，但在非洲国家总公共债务中的占比不到6%。

中国的非洲策略未来会如何发展？

鉴于中国在非洲投资的回报日益减少和面临的挑战，中国可能会继续调整其在非洲的投资策略，更加注重小而美的投资项目，同时可能会寻求其他地区和方式来实现其全球战略目标。

Outlines

00:00

🌍 中国在非洲的投资与债务问题

本段讨论了中国在非洲的经济活动，特别是通过提供贷款和投资基础设施建设来增强其在非洲大陆的影响力。中国已成为非洲最大的债权国，例如在肯尼亚，中国持有的双边债务占比达到75%。这种财务依赖关系可能使非洲国家在政治和经济上对中国产生依赖。早在本世纪初，中国就开始将其庞大的外汇储备投资于非洲，寻找新的投资机会，并通过其新丝绸之路计划在全球范围内扩大商业和政治影响力。非洲丰富的自然资源对于中国新兴产业尤为重要，但这种投资模式引发了关于中国可能利用债务陷阱获取非洲自然资源和政治影响力的争议。

05:01

🔄 中国在非洲的战略转变与影响

本段深入分析了中国在非洲的经济活动对非洲国家的长远影响。虽然有理论认为中国通过贷款和投资获得了非洲的矿产资源和政治支持，但实际上中国的许多投资项目并未带来预期的经济收益，甚至导致中国企业和银行面临损失。自2016年以来，中国对非洲的投资大幅减少，这表明中国可能正在重新评估其在非洲的投资战略。此外，该段还探讨了中国在国际商务旅行中的影响力，特别是通过Olly的国际数字SIM卡服务，为商务人士提供便利的国际通讯解决方案。

10:02

🤔 中国投资非洲的真实效果与未来展望

本段评估了中国在非洲的经济活动对非洲国家的实际影响，并对未来的趋势进行了展望。尽管有观点认为中国通过贷款和投资控制了非洲的资源和政治决策，但研究表明，中国的许多投资项目并未带来预期的收益，甚至对中国自身造成了经济损失。此外，非洲国家的债务结构复杂，中国虽然是最大的双边债权国，但在整体债务中所占比例有限。随着中国在非洲的投资策略调整，未来可能会出现更多注重效率和实用性的小型项目，而非洲的经济发展也将面临新的挑战和机遇。

Keywords

💡债务陷阱

指中国向非洲国家提供廉价贷款,但这些贷款无法偿还,因此中国获得了自然资源和政治利益作为抵押的一种论述。本视频分析了这种论述的真实性。

💡新丝绸之路

中国政府于2013年提出的一项庞大基建投资计划,旨在与亚洲、欧洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的国家建立更緊密的经济联系。本视频探讨了该计划在非洲的影响。

Highlights

China has become the largest lender in Africa, holding a significant portion of the bilateral debt in countries like Kenya.

China's investment in Africa began in the early years of the new century, capitalizing on its economic boom and the need for natural resources.

The shift in China's investment from Western assets to African infrastructure and resources was prompted by the 2008 financial crisis.

African countries are seen as a gold mine for China's industrial and political ambitions, leading to massive investments known as the New Silk Road.

Many debts owed by African countries to China are backed by natural resource exploitation rights, raising concerns about sovereignty and economic independence.

Critics argue that China's lending practices in Africa could be a form of neo-colonialism, exploiting the continent's resources and political landscape.

China's non-conditional loans differ from those of IMF and World Bank, offering a more attractive but potentially risky alternative for African countries.

The concept of 'debt-trap diplomacy' suggests China's strategic use of loans to gain political leverage and access to resources, rather than purely economic gain.

Despite theories of Chinese colonialism, evidence suggests that China's involvement in Africa is not as exploitative or unilateral as often portrayed.

China's reduction in African investments since 2016 indicates a strategic shift, possibly due to the unprofitability of its mega projects in the region.

Loans from China often directly benefit Chinese companies involved in African infrastructure projects, but these investments have seen diminishing returns.

The Hamantota port project in Sri Lanka serves as a cautionary tale of the pitfalls of heavy investment and reliance on Chinese loans.

Chinese companies face higher risks and losses in Africa, prompting a shift towards smaller, more manageable projects.

Africa's stagnant economy poses a challenge to both Chinese investors and the continent's ability to leverage foreign investments for growth.

The narrative of China's control over Africa is more nuanced, with benefits and losses on both sides, challenging the simplistic view of exploitative practices.

Transcripts

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[Music]

moment is China controlling Africa it

may seem like a conspiratorial question

but it is not for the past few years

China has been showering the African

continent with a lot of money not free

money but borrowed money Beijing is

already the largest lender in all of

Africa and in some countries such as

Kenya it already holds 75% of of all its

bilateral debt you know how the saying

goes he who pays the piper calls the

tune and many African countries have

indebted their families to Beijing in

recent years this could be allowing the

Asian Giants to subjugate the subsaharan

African region but let's go to the

beginning of the whole Saga the story of

China's control over Africa began in the

early years of the new century at that

time China was growing at full speed the

country had already established itself

as the world's Factory and its foreign

reserves were overflow flowing on all

four sides the Chinese government

managed to accumulate a lot of dollars

but instead of keeping them in a safe

collecting dust it decided to invest

them in Western assets such as us

sovereign debt this was quite

interesting since sovereign debt is an

investment that at high interest rates

is reasonably profitable and above all

safe in other words for the Chinese it

was a safe and lucrative investment from

2008 onwards however the picture changed

with the global financial crisis

interest rates in the West fell into

negative territory and of course the

Sovereign Bonds in which China had

invested were no longer profitable so in

other words they were out of business so

the Chinese decided to look for new

places to invest their Surplus money and

do you know what that's when they

realized there was a great opportunity

in

Africa the Chinese authorities realized

that African countries could be a gold

mine for their interests not only

financial but also commercial industrial

and even why not say it political well

from that moment on a veritable

elephanttine investment project was

launched in Africa but at the same time

China also invested in many other

countries in Asia and Latin America all

these huge investment plans became known

as the new Silk Road we are talking

about a project worth hundreds of

billions of dollars with which China

sought to build new infrastructure that

would extend its commercial Clause

around the globe and indeed in the case

of Africa investment has been one of the

key the success of Chinese industry just

think about it what is it that

characterizes Africa economically Above

All Else indeed it's natural resources

and not surprisingly it turns out that

China's new Industries especially those

related to microchips and renewable

energies need huge amounts of Natural

Resources such as lithium and silicon

and visual economic Community this is

where a huge conspiracy theory emerges

you see many of the debts owed by

African countries to China are backed by

natural resource exploitation rights

that is if the government of say Kenya

cannot repay its debts to China then

China keeps the country's natural

resources and you will probably be

thinking well that is a legitimate

decision if the Kenyans want to go into

debt and put up their natural resources

as collateral that's up to them and it's

their decision right well in principle

yes but many critics point out that

China is abusing its position of power

after all many African countries have no

way of accessing cheap loans in the west

and of course in many cases they need

money to survive as they are already

heavily indebted countries in need of

constant financing we are talking about

the fact that some African countries pay

around 1 of their public Revenue

servicing interest on debt alone and at

the same time if they want to grow

economically they need to take on more

debt and invest in infrastructure

education energy in short in their

productive fabric put another way

African debt can almost only be repaid

with more debt however since these

countries are so poor nobody lends them

cheap cheap money and they end up in a

real spiral of misery and this is where

China comes

[Music]

in China comes to Africa with cheap

credit and investment what's more unlike

other lenders such as the IMF and the

World Bank China does not demand payment

guarantees such as higher taxes or Cuts

in public spending basically the Chinese

offer cheap checks to the governments of

the day without conditions but they

demand natural resources as collateral

in case of non-payment so what's the

problem according to many the problem is

that China grants these loans knowing

that they will not be repaid with the

aim of gaining control of a multitude of

natural resources and something similar

happens at the political level

governments that depend on Chinese money

always support China in international

forums this is what is known as the debt

trap and is summarized in the fact that

theoretically China has been granting

loans to African countries not so much

for economic benefit but above all for

political benefit for example it has

already already obtained preferential

access to Natural Resources but also

military bases and support in

international organizations such as the

UN according to this Theory China does

not care whether African countries can

pay their debts or not in fact the

weaker the country's finances are the

more bargaining power the Asian giant

would have not only that but many argue

that after China's involvement the

economy of many African countries

ultimately suffers and so China would

have flooded Africa with a very

attractive debt rested mineral resources

and political concessions from them and

when they have succeeded they simply

leave the continent leaving the

countries in which they have intervened

exhausted and depleted now does this

Theory really make sense well I'm sorry

to disappoint you but not really this

theory of Chinese colonialism is

widespread in the media and even if it

has some truth to it everything

indicates that it does not hold up nor

is it as straightforward as it seems

much less is it a major problem for

African countries in fact do you want a

groundbreaking fact China is abandoning

Africa indeed China has been bypassing

Africa and its investments in the region

for years since 2016 the Asian giant has

been increasingly cutting ties with

African countries it has gone from

lending nearly $30 billion in a single

year to less than $5 billion by 2020 for

some reason beijing's strategy with

African resources seems to be coming to

an end the question is why well listen

up but before one thing China remains an

ever expanding Powerhouse moving at an

impressive Pace to consolidate its

position as a world leader it is highly

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you a poisoned

gift you see when we say that China

makes a loan to an African country we

don't have to imagine XI jingping

extending a w of bills what's more the

loan money often does not even come

directly from China what usually happens

is that an investment project is

proposed in Africa such as a road then a

Chinese Bank finances a Chinese company

state-owned or partially state-owned

that participates in the construction of

that road and then the African

governments pay for the road including

the interest on the loan if you think

about it this has many advantages for

Beijing since the money it lends to

African projects is directly reinvested

in Chinese companies that carry out the

work nevertheless let me be clear

companies working on African projects

are losing more and more money for

example a group of Chinese companies

involved in construction has lost 30% of

its Revenue in Africa since 2015 but if

you have any doubts let me give you a

more precise case the Haman to port in

Sri Lanka a project in which China

contributed more than 1.3 billion this

port turned out to be an absolute

failure with losses that in some years

have been 10 times greater than the

revenues the outcome was that Sri Lanka

was unable to pay for the investment and

as a result many media Outlets headlined

that China expropriated the port and

built a military base however the

reality was much less conspiratorial

after the default what happened was that

China took 70% of the port's revenues

for 99 years in exchange for an

additional $1 billion in other words

China was left with the revenue from a

dysfunctional Port that was barely

making any money there was really no

plan for Chinese control and domination

of Sri Lanka and let me ask you did the

Asian giant and its companies really

gain from this this operation well

hardly and the worst thing is that this

type of operation is

commonplace according to a study out of

40 loans that China made to African

countries and that these countries have

not been able to repay only six

continued as if nothing had happened the

rest were either forgiven deterred or

renegotiated in other words China did

not really come out ahead with this

whole flashing of the cash the new

Mammoth macro investments in

infrastructure are turning out to be

huge Bottomless Pits of Chinese money

which perhaps explains why the Chinese

companies involved are increasingly

taking out insurance against debt

default rising from cing 30% at the

start of the project to 60% on average

today but as if that were not enough the

new Silk Road projects give rise to many

more corruption scandals than other

Chinese projects we are talking about

figures of 26% compared to less than 10%

they are also five times more likely to

commit accounting tricks and what is

perhaps more relevant a new Silk Road

Project is 10% more likely to

overestimate its potential profitability

and remember when Chinese companies used

to go to Africa to work directly on Mega

projects well it seems that the more

these companies get involved in Africa's

Mammoth projects the more likely it is

that they will end up going wrong in

other words Chinese companies have

proven rather unproductive in the

Forgotten continent in fact projects

carried out by Chinese companies are

four times more likely to suffer from

serious problems such as chronic

corruption than projects involving

native African companies of course this

is not to say that the Chinese are

stupid or anything like that it is to be

expected that the projects in which they

are not involved will be much smaller

and safer in other words perhaps Chinese

companies have so far targeted much

larger projects than they could manage

it is for this reason that there is a

term that has been repeated at every

Silk Road meeting in recent years Shia a

May small and beautiful shying away from

large Mega projects and F focusing on

smaller costeffective infrastructure but

of course there is another factor to

take into account here Africa's economy

is completely paralyzed this makes it

even more difficult for Chinese

Investments to

succeed many countries in Africa have

experienced a whole lost decade since

2014 mainly due to a drop in commodity

prices subsaharan Africa's GDP per

capita has fallen by more than 10% in

fact it is reasonable to think that if

there is one great beneficiary of the

silk Road it is precisely the African

continent there is a very broad academic

consensus that lending money to African

governments generally has a positive

effect on growth in these countries so

the real Theory would instead be the

opposite China helps African countries

and often loses out although it also

gains access to natural resources and

certain concessions and political favors

in any case it is also important to make

clear the magnitude of the issue because

in reality African countries are not as

indebted to the Chinese as it may seem

put another way yes China is the largest

lender in Africa but this sentence has a

catch to begin with 60% of debt of

subsaharan countries is domestic in

other words countries have mostly

indebted themselves to their own

citizens not to foreign countries

meanwhile the fact that China is the

largest bilateral lender does not mean

that it lends more than all other

lenders combined basically because many

loans in Africa are made by multilateral

organizations such as the IMF the World

Bank or the Paris Club and their

combined presence is greater and so

China actually accounts for less than 6%

of the total public debt of these

countries which at the end of the day

means that the theory of China's control

of Africa is more an exaggeration than

anything else and China's abandonment of

Africa is perhaps the strongest proof of

the unprofitability of its Mega projects

but at this point it is now your turn do

you think that China invested in Africa

with hidden interests has the investment

dropped because of Africa or because of

China what can we expect from the new

project that will come in the next few

years you can leave me your answers down

in the comments and as always don't

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