Ep. 16: Artificial Intelligence

Summary

In this IBM podcast, the host Amit Varma narrates a dream where his wife has replaced him with an AI version, sparking a discussion on AI's impact on jobs and society. Guests Ramis Nam and Pavan Shat explore AI's potential for job displacement and wealth creation, the historical resilience of jobs to automation, and the possibility of AI enhancing education. They also delve into the complexities of policy-making regarding disruptive technologies and the challenges of economic anxiety amidst technological advancements.

Takeaways

• 😴 The podcast begins with a dream narrative about an AI version of the speaker's wife, hinting at the theme of artificial intelligence and its impact on personal relationships.
• 🧠 The dream scenario raises the question of AI's potential to replicate human emotions and interactions, suggesting a future where AI could replace human connection.
• 🔮 The discussion acknowledges the fear in India about AI's impact on jobs, particularly in the service industry, and the potential for job displacement due to automation.
• 🌐 The podcast highlights the historical context of technological advancements leading to job creation, using the example of the Green Revolution to illustrate how technology can lead to unexpected positive outcomes.
• 🚜 It emphasizes the importance of considering both the seen and unseen effects of AI, suggesting that while some jobs may be lost, new opportunities and roles could emerge.
• 🤖 The conversation explores the idea that AI could improve upon human capabilities by enhancing conversation and eliminating negative traits, presenting a more idealized version of a person.
• 🚀 The podcast touches on the potential for AI to disrupt education, suggesting that personalized AI tutors could provide tailored learning experiences that surpass traditional teaching methods.
• 🛣️ There is a debate about whether to implement a universal basic income (UBI) as a social safety net in response to job displacement caused by AI and automation.
• 🏛️ The discussion points out the complexity of policy-making in the face of AI-induced job losses, with the need for a balance between supporting displaced workers and encouraging technological advancement.
• 🌍 The podcast considers global implications, such as the impact of AI on truck drivers in the US and India, and the potential for AI to create new jobs in e-commerce and other emerging sectors.
• 🌌 Finally, the conversation contemplates a future where AI and automation could satisfy all human needs, leading to a utopian or dystopian scenario where the need for human jobs is diminished or eliminated.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the IBM podcast 'Scene and the Unseen'?

The main theme of the podcast is to discuss artificial intelligence and its impact on the world, including both positive and negative effects.

What is the unusual event in the host's dream about his wife?

In the dream, the host's wife has an electrode plugged into her brain and claims to have uploaded his brain onto a device, creating an AI version of him that can have better conversations without any of his flaws.

What is the 'Amit 2.0' mentioned in the dream?

The 'Amit 2.0' refers to an AI version of the host, Amit, which has all the good qualities of the original Amit but none of the negative traits like inflated self-importance or lack of empathy.

What does the host believe about the future of AI and jobs?

The host believes that while AI might destroy some jobs, it will overall create more value and new opportunities, leading to a positive-sum game for the economy and society.

What historical example is given to illustrate the impact of automation on jobs?

The historical example given is Ned Ludd, who allegedly destroyed weaving machines fearing job loss. However, the invention of those machines increased demand for textiles, leading to more jobs in the industry.

What is the 'Green Revolution' mentioned in the podcast, and how is it related to job displacement?

The 'Green Revolution' refers to the agricultural revolution initiated by Norman Borlaug, who developed high-yield crops that saved millions from famine. His success was partly due to the displacement from a menial labor job by a Ford tractor, which allowed him to pursue education and contribute significantly to agriculture.

What is the role of AI in the service industry as discussed in the podcast?

The role of AI in the service industry is seen as a potential disruptor that could replace low-end services with automation, but also as a creator of new job opportunities and efficiencies.

What is the concept of Universal Basic Income (UBI) discussed in the podcast?

Universal Basic Income (UBI) is a welfare concept where every citizen receives a set amount of money from the government, regardless of their income or employment status. It is discussed as a potential solution to economic anxiety caused by job displacement due to AI and automation.

What is the potential impact of AI on education as mentioned in the podcast?

The potential impact of AI on education includes personalized learning experiences through AI tutors that adapt to individual student's needs, potentially providing better education than traditional classroom settings.

What is the dystopian vision of the future with AI and automation as discussed in the podcast?

The dystopian vision is a future where AI and automation can satisfy every human need, potentially leading to mass unemployment and a loss of purpose for people.

What is the utopian vision of the future with AI and automation as discussed in the podcast?

The utopian vision is a future where the high productivity of AI and automation makes everything so affordable that people do not need jobs, and the value created goes back into the economy, improving the quality of life for everyone.

Outlines

00:00

😴 The Dream of AI Love and Replacement

The first paragraph narrates a dream where the podcast host, Amit, encounters his wife who has seemingly replaced him with an AI version, Amit 2.0. This AI is described as having all of Amit's positive traits, such as wit and knowledge, but none of the negative ones like self-importance and lack of empathy. The dream reflects on the potential of AI to replicate and even improve upon human interactions, leading to a humorous yet thought-provoking scenario where the host is made redundant by his own AI counterpart.

05:01

🤖 AI's Impact on Jobs and the Economy

In the second paragraph, the conversation shifts to a discussion on the impact of artificial intelligence on jobs and the economy. The participants debate the potential for AI to cause job loss, particularly in the service industry in India. They reference historical examples, such as the Luddite movement and the Green Revolution, to illustrate how technological advancements have historically led to more wealth creation and job growth, despite initial fears. The discussion also touches on the importance of education and the potential for AI to revolutionize learning, offering personalized experiences that could benefit a vast number of people.

10:03

🚚 The Future of Work and Policy Responses

The third paragraph delves into the complexities of job displacement due to AI and automation. The speakers consider the potential for AI to disrupt traditional jobs like truck driving and the challenges this poses for policy makers. They explore the idea of using technology to improve education as a means of retraining the workforce and discuss the possibility of government policies that could either hinder or support the spread of disruptive technologies. The conversation also raises the issue of social unrest and the need for a social safety net to support those affected by job displacement.

15:04

🛠️ The Role of Technology in Job Creation and Destruction

In this paragraph, the discussion continues with a focus on how technology might not completely eliminate jobs but rather change the nature of work. The speakers use the example of a lawyer whose job is partially automated, freeing them to focus on more complex tasks. They also consider the potential for increased demand for goods and services due to reduced costs, which could, in turn, create new jobs. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding that automation often targets specific tasks within a job rather than the job itself, and the need for a nuanced approach to policy and education in response to these changes.

20:05

🌐 The Societal and Economic Implications of Advanced AI

The final paragraph contemplates the broader implications of a future where AI and automation can satisfy all human needs, potentially leading to a utopian or dystopian scenario. The speakers consider the possibility of a society where the need for traditional jobs is diminished, and people seek new forms of purpose and fulfillment. They also discuss the potential for universal basic income as a policy response to economic disruption, weighing the benefits of targeting assistance to those most in need against the administrative challenges of implementing such a system. The conversation concludes with a reflection on the unpredictable nature of technological progress and its impact on society.

Keywords

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. In the video, AI is central to the theme, as it discusses the potential of AI to change the world in various ways, including job displacement and enhancement of human capabilities. The script mentions AI's role in creating an 'Amit 2.0' version, which signifies an enhanced version of a person with all positive attributes and none of the negative traits.

💡Job Displacement

Job Displacement occurs when jobs are eliminated or made obsolete due to technological advancements. The script discusses this concept in the context of AI and automation, particularly in India's service industry. It raises concerns about the potential for AI to decimate jobs, but also presents the counterargument that new jobs may be created as a result of technological advancements.

💡Singularity Institute

The Singularity Institute is an organization focused on ensuring that the creation of smart AI has a positive impact. Ramis Nam, one of the guests in the script, works at the Singularity Institute, indicating the institute's role in shaping the future of AI and its effects on society.

💡Behavioral Science

Behavioral Science is an interdisciplinary field that studies human behavior and decision-making. The podcast 'Scene and the Unseen' is described as focusing on economics, politics, and behavioral science, suggesting that the discussion of AI's impact on jobs and society is grounded in an understanding of human behavior and its interaction with technology.

💡Futurist

A Futurist is someone who studies and predicts the future, particularly in terms of technological, social, and cultural trends. Ramis Nam is described as a renowned futurist, indicating his expertise in forecasting the potential developments and implications of AI in the future.

💡Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Universal Basic Income is a proposed economic policy where every citizen receives a set amount of money from the government, regardless of income or employment status. The script discusses UBI as a potential solution to address job displacement caused by AI and automation, suggesting it as a means to provide financial security in a changing job market.

💡Economic Anxiety

Economic Anxiety refers to the stress and concern individuals feel about their economic stability and future in a rapidly changing economy. The script mentions this concept in the context of job losses due to AI, highlighting the emotional and psychological impact of technological advancements on workers.

💡Green Revolution

The Green Revolution refers to the period of agricultural modernization in the 20th century, marked by the introduction of high-yielding varieties of crops and increased use of fertilizers and pesticides. Norman Borlaug, mentioned in the script, is credited with saving a billion lives through his contributions to the Green Revolution, illustrating the potential positive impact of technological advancements on society.

💡Automation

Automation is the use of technology to perform tasks with minimal human intervention. The script discusses the potential of automation to replace certain jobs, such as truck driving, and the need for society to adapt to these changes by retraining workers for new roles.

💡Online Education

Online Education refers to educational courses, degrees, or training that are delivered through the internet. The script suggests that AI and online education could play a significant role in retraining workers who have lost their jobs due to automation, providing them with new skills and opportunities.

💡Economic Surplus

Economic Surplus is the difference between the cost of production and the selling price of goods or services. The script implies that advancements in AI and automation could lead to increased productivity and reduced costs, potentially creating an economic surplus that could benefit society as a whole.

Highlights

A dream sequence introduces the concept of AI replacing human interaction with an enhanced version of oneself.

The podcast discusses the potential of AI to create value and deflation in service costs while acknowledging job loss concerns.

Historical examples are given to illustrate how technological advancements can lead to job creation despite initial fears of job loss.

The Green Revolution is cited as an example of how job displacement can lead to significant positive outcomes, such as increased food production.

The conversation explores the complex relationship between AI, job creation, and the potential for education disruption through personalized AI tutors.

The potential of AI to semi-automate tasks within jobs, rather than completely replacing them, is discussed as a more nuanced view of job displacement.

The idea of a social safety net and the role of education in retraining the workforce for new job opportunities is highlighted.

Universal basic income is debated as a potential solution to economic anxiety, with arguments for and against its implementation.

The potential for AI to increase efficiency in various sectors, such as food delivery, is considered, along with the impact on job roles.

The importance of targeting welfare and subsidies effectively using technology like Adar is discussed in the Indian context.

The podcast contemplates a future where AI and automation could satisfy all human needs, questioning the implications for jobs and human purpose.

The potential dystopian and utopian outcomes of AI advancements are debated, focusing on the balance between human needs and technological capabilities.

The conversation concludes with a reflection on the unpredictable nature of technological impact and the importance of adaptability.

A call to action for listeners to explore books and resources mentioned in the podcast for further insights into AI and its effects.

A teaser for the next episode of the podcast, hinting at a discussion on centrally sponsored schemes with PR Kotan.

A promotion for a related podcast, 'Keeping it Q,' which profiles LGBT individuals, adding diversity to the discussion on technology and society.

Transcripts

welcome to the IBM podcast

[Music]

Network I had a strange dream the other

night I saw my wife in a dream now this

is unusual by itself who dreams about

their spouse anyway in my dream I was in

an Amorous mood and I went into my

bedroom hoping to interest my lovely

wife in some playful interaction she was

curled up on the bed laughing to herself

in a way I only see when she is laughing

at my jokes she had an electrode plugged

into her brain I opened my mouth to say

something and she held up her hand and

shushed me I don't need to talk to you

anymore she said there is no longer any

need for any actual physical interaction

between us what are you talking about I

said how can you say such a thing don't

you love me anymore oh I love you very

much she said but now I have an enhanced

version of you I uploaded your brain on

this device a week ago when you were

sleeping and now there is an AI version

of you here which makes even better

conversation than you do it has all the

good things about you your wit your

knowledge but none of the bad stuff like

your inflated sense of self-importance

your lack of empathy your short

attention span you are Amit 1.0 this is

Amit

2.0 oh damn I had always feared this day

would come but that's just conversation

I said what about the physical stuff

what about cuddling ha she laughed

that's also sorted see Amit people are a

technology to make you feel a certain

way when you hug me oxytocin floods

through me well now I can replicate the

firing of neurons that leads to that

without actually having to hug an actual

human in fact over the last few weeks I

have saved all my experiences with you

into the hard drive right here now I can

replay them anytime I want and even

tweak some details I don't need you at

all

I was very sad when I heard this I

started pouting but as my natural

resting face is a pout I must have

looked the same okay fine I said I

understand I apologize for intruding

I'll just go and record next week's

podcast now you don't need to she said

it's done I'm listening to it now you

talk about me in your intro how

sweet welcome to the seen and the Unseen

our weekly podcast on economics politics

and Behavioral Science please welcome

your host Amit

BMA welcome to the scene and the Unseen

in today's episode I'm going to be

talking about artificial intelligence

which is changing the world around us

mostly in good ways unlike some

alarmists I have nothing but positive

feelings about AI I have two guests on

the show today who share my optimism but

are also aware of both positive and

negative unseen effects of artificial

intelligence

Ramis Nam is a renowned futurist and

award-winning science fiction novelist

he works at the singularity Institute

and I urge you to Google him and read

some of his essays on AI also on the

show today is Pavan shat my colleague at

the magazine pragati who has studied

some of the public policy implications

of AI such as universal basic income

Ramis and pan welcome to the scene and

the Unseen thanks thanks rames you

you've written a lot about artificial

intelligence uh uh and I've been reading

a lot of your stuff and it's amazing so

tell me something there's especially in

India there's a fear that people have

about artificial intelligence that it's

going to decimate jobs especially in the

service industry for example and like at

one level the scen effect of artificial

intelligences creates enormous value and

it might seem the Unseen effect as a job

loss but to a lot of us here in India

this the job loss is also sort of the

scene effect what are we missing what's

the bigger picture here yeah well I

think the dialogue is pretty far ahead

in India if you're already talking about

job loss from Automation and I do think

we should just acknowledge for a moment

that the the big obvious effect of AI

and digital technology in general is

lots of wealth creation and lots of

deflation of the cost of services that

were once impossible we all have more

access to information than any US

president before Bill Clinton let's say

basically for free so that's amazing

amazing right now will AI uh destroy

jobs who knows I would say it will

destroy some jobs for sure will it

overall have a macro effect of

destroying jobs I am cautious about

predicting that because it's been

predicted so many times that AI would

destroy jobs or that automation would

destroy jobs in a macro sense and it

hasn't ever been right at least not for

the long term I'll give you an example

of that I will answer your question

eventually I'll give you example of that

is Ned lud the Lites are named after him

Ned may or may not have actually existed

we don't really know if he was a real

person or not fake news yeah he net L

might be fake news but he apocryphally

destroyed artificial weaving machines

because he thought that they would take

jobs from Weavers and textile workers

but the invention of those machines

actually increased demand for textiles

so much that more people were employed

in the industry 10 years later than had

been before they were around because

they brought down the price of textiles

that made clothing much more affordable

and that spurred demand it was a a

positive some sort of thing okay so we

have some humility about predicting the

future but let's imagine that it does

destroy some jobs uh the example you and

I were talking about last night is

Norman Boro Norman Boro started the

Green Revolution in the 1940s he bred

better wheat than better rice that

doubled crop yields around the world uh

helped save India from massive famine

saved Mexico from massive famine they

say he had a billion people saved A

Billion Lives maybe more than anyone in

history borw grew up uh in sort of a

poor town in Iowa in the US he had no

electricity no running water uh and the

reason he is who he is today is that he

would have grown up to just be a farmer

following in his parents footsteps but

his family was able to get a Ford

mechanical tractor and that Ford tractor

destroyed boro's job of being a menial

laborer on the farm but that let him go

to high school not even University High

School and that led to him having the

skills to combine new ideas to produce

these better crops that feed us all that

changed the world that changed the world

and made him a hero in India so you know

I'm always an evangelist for technology

to me the Unseen effect of more

technology is always positive you know

you might see some immediate job loss in

the short term if at all but so much

extra value is created that it goes back

into the economy and the world is better

off than it was before it's a positive

sum game what I don't have answers to

and what people often ask me is in the

specific Indian context where we are

where as a nation we're growing younger

and younger we have a million people

coming into the workforce every month

and there simply Aren't Enough jobs

getting generated for them and what I

see happening is that a a lot of our

service industry is lowend kind of

Services which can easily be replaced by

Ai and it's already started happening

and plus while we never had a

manufacturing industry because of our

labor laws and whatever that is a

non-starter now simply because

automation won't allow it to happen so

now I understand that in the long-term

great things will happen and I also buy

your point about having humility about

predicting the future because a future

is of course full of unknown unknowns as

it were in this case so no one can

possibly no one could have predicted at

the time bok's parents brought a tractor

that it would lead to the Green

Revolution that was an unknown unknown

um but before the longterm comes we got

to deal with the shortterm sort of

social unrest that is likely the demand

on policy makers to somehow amarate this

is uh uh likely I and when people ask me

all this I really don't have any answers

anymore yeah it is complex and there are

parts of it that are really scary we

know whether or not the macro job

destruction happens we know that micro

job destruction will happen um in the US

we talk a lot about truck driving in

most US states uh truck driver is the

most common profession uh but those

might be automated away in the next 10

years even if it goes very slowly might

be 20 years so what do they go do there

about 3 million people in the US about

1% of the US population drives a vehicle

for a living and I see a lot of people

in India that do that as well uh so

maybe and I'm optimistic about this the

total number of new jobs created by

technology will be much larger than the

number that are destroyed but still what

do you do do with those people I hope

for a couple things I hope one that

technology that's disrupting driving or

this disrupted music or newspapers might

also disrupt education so MIT one of the

world's top universities has said they

will make all of their curriculum

available for free uh we have ai in

video games that knows how skilled you

are and plays just hard enough for it to

be an engaging experience for you and in

fact makes it addictive could we have ai

tutors in your phone in your tablet that

have access to all of this curriculum

that know what questions you're getting

right and wrong and tailor the education

for you in a way that no human teacher

with 30 or 40 kids could do that sounds

like science fiction right but it was

science fiction for a robot to be

driving a car just 10 years ago so if we

do that is there a chance we can take

children throughout the world that maybe

don't have good schooling and give them

amazing schooling bar better than now

for pennies billions of them and even

take adults who are taxi drivers they

might not have the same ability to learn

new skills but I'll bet we can retrain

them into some new jobs if we deploy

this sort of technology for them so let

me play devil's advocate for a moment um

a government policy maker say 10 years

down the line in India might well say

that look I buy a technology as a whole

is a great thing but I can approach

different aspects of it differently for

example if truckers across the country

are losing jobs I can ban self-driving

cars or you know tax them or whatever

and I can let the education happen it's

it's it's not as if I have to have the

same approach to a disruptive technology

and to technology which clearly does the

kind and I absolutely share your

optimism on the online education bit uh

so you know at a policy level if it's

approached like that and even in the

popular imagination I mean popularism

dominates the world today I don't see it

very far like for the same reason like

for

example some of of Trump's Victory is

definitely due to job loss which he

attributes to a jobs being shipped

overseas and B immigrants coming and

taking the jobs and a significant chunk

of them are because of automation how

long before the anger goes in that

direction I do think unrest is a real

issue I do think uh people see their way

of life changing and they have economic

anxiety there sort of a hollowing out of

uh the the blue collar Workforce in the

US the manual laborers that used to work

in manufacturing and so on service jobs

are vulnerable but they have not been

hurt as much so far I think India does

have some vulnerability there um so you

have to figure out how to deal with that

and I think part two is you have to have

a social safety net you have to have

some way to say okay if your job has

been destroyed we are going to take care

of you for a while with incentives for

you to learn something new that is

valuable to society that that should be

the number one thing that we ask someone

to do if we are taking care of them when

they're not employed is we should ask

them to learn fundamentally P ra

mentioned the social safety net and

you've been reading and thinking and

writing about Universal basic income for

example among other things what are your

thoughts I think Universal basic income

is seems to be the latest um uh latest

idea in welfare that has picked up speed

uh the idea has been around for a while

various flavors of it have existed

there's the idea of a negative income

tax for example and I think it's good

that this discussion is happening in the

United States uh because I think they

are prosperous enough to have that

conversation in India even if you take

the pie you redistribute it you get rid

of administrative uh cost you get 3,000

4,000 rupees per person per year if

pushed maybe 20,000 rupes per person per

year and when you're providing that as

cash and you don't have have public

goods that are available then your

efficiency in using that cash is very

limited I mean you don't have a road to

travel on you have the money to buy a

scooter now but that's not going to help

right so I think our conversations have

to be a little different and I want to

ask a question on this um I think one of

the ways to amarate economic anxiety on

this is when people can think of easy um

first entry jobs uh that can be created

in this new space uh if I'm looking at

what's happening in India over the last

5 10 years with uh e-commerce becoming a

big thing with um new startup sort of

achieving scale uh is that you have a

lot of these um jobs that people can

quickly get into you know you're a

driver you're a delivery guy you are uh

in many other places and these are being

created rapidly so one of the reasons

why startups have worked in India so far

is while they have hit at disrupted old

old businesses they've disrupted the

black and yellow taxi cabs in Mumbai but

they've also created these jobs so

there's a new constituency of people who

are batting for them so in AI uh RAM do

you see any opportunities for such jobs

I think we do and I would say that

here's a slightly more sophisticated way

to think about Job destruction most of

the time automation does not destroy a

whole job what it does is that a job is

a basket of tasks let's say your job has

10 tasks let's say you are a delivery

man some of your tasks is you walk into

to the restaurant and you get the food

you walk back out you know the address a

bunch of your job is you drive there and

then another part of your job is you get

out you walk up to the house you knock

you give the person their food collect

the money well technology might automate

away the driving part but that last not

even the last mile but the last 100

meters is actually quite difficult to

automate away and drones we can have

fantasies about the taco drone all we

want but it just doesn't make a lot of

economic sense for some time so and we

see that in a variety of other things in

in White Collar work in service work we

see the same thing so I'll give you an

example of something not in the tech

industry uh being a lawyer in the US one

of the uh large things that you do in a

big complicated case is Discovery what

is Discovery it's reading through

thousands or hundreds of thousands or

millions of documents to find something

interesting so now we have ai

that can automate can semi-automate can

make that part of the job the most

boring least fun least intellect

demanding part of the job much more

streamlined and it can free up the

attorney to do the most important parts

the negotiation the arguing in court and

so on so I actually I'm not sure that in

many of these cases that we'll see

people just go away if the the truckers

that I talked about if that trucking job

is automated you still have uh someone

that needs to refuel that vehicle you

still have the people that need to load

and unload it some of that will be

automated not all of it you are reducing

the cost of shipping Goods that will

probably in turn increase the demand for

shipping goods and the way the textile

demand went up when the price went down

that internal will create ancillary jobs

so that's what I see and I can't tell

you exactly what that looks like but I

think if for instance if if India had uh

fully autonomous vehicles every single

one a the traffic would move five times

faster right and that what economic

surplus does that have for everyone in

India uh and B will that actually create

more demand for uh delivery services

that employ a human in some way maybe

the human has to do four other tasks

during the drive but he's still going to

do something right absolutely I mean I

completely get this exact analogy just

with Uber and Ola in India uh if you had

to be a taxi driver in an Indian city

say 15 years ago you needed need to know

the city first right you needed a

geographic map of the city you needed a

mental map of this now because Google

Maps has automated that any firsttime

driver so long as they know driving and

they know the rules of the road

reasonably well they can just get on the

actually made it easier for people to

become drivers and you know therefore

Increase jobs in that space so so like

you said if certain tasks that require

extensive experience or

training become uh obvious with the use

of Technology uh maybe some jobs might

increase in certain sectors yeah maybe

the future of meal delivery is going to

be that it's a mobile kitchen and the

person is the work they're doing is

they're cooking inside while it's

driving automatically from each place to

each place I don't know I'd like to come

back to the the universal basic income

though because when I do the math I just

do the math math in the back of the

envelope what I come to the conclusion

of is we should talk about basic income

and not Universal basic income because

if you target it at the bottom 20% of

society let's say you get five times as

many Rupees that you can spend on those

people so I think we should think of it

as a safety net something that phases

out gradually and slowly with income

rather than being Universal there's

various Arguments for Universal that

gets more politically popular if

everyone gets some but it's just not as

efficient I don't need that income

myself I would rather that a poor person

gets more more than I do right I think

the argument in favor of a universal in

Universal anything is that the cost of

targeting might uh and the challenges of

mistargeting Might outweigh the cost of

universalization and I think with

technology that might be proving wrong

we'll need to see how Adar and other

things in India can be deployed

meaningfully uh to make targeting

successful what Adar will do is it will

provide Universal surveillance

so while we're looking at that angle I

think the original purpose of the Adar

was how do we manage horribly bloated

subsidies in Fair how do we get the

targeting right how do we make sure the

right guy is I fully agree with you

right so so let me let me let me end by

uh asking a question of what could

either be a utopian or a dystopian

future now typically we imagine that um

you know whenever new technology comes

it might cause short-term micro job

losses but it creates value and that

value goes back into the economy and

that creates more jobs now what happens

in a future scenario where artificial

intelligence and automation together can

essentially satisfy every human need

yeah right and in which case whatever

value is created goes back into Ai and

automation because any need that any

human can have is possibly satisfied now

the dystopian vision is that my god

there are no jobs and what are people

going to do and we need to protect the

people and the I opian vision is that

everything will be so cheap because

productivity is so high that people

don't need jobs where's the balance I

mean so I think uh people do like having

a purpose in life so we have to worry

about that and also expect that people

will look for purpose in life but I also

become very very cautious about

predictions like this John Maynard ke

arguably the greatest Economist of the

20th century predicted that in the USA

by today by actually like 2000 I think

people would work an eight hour work

week cuz he said per capita income grows

at you know 2% perom and so by 2,000

everyone should be able to work 8 hours

and have a good quality of life by which

he meant a 1920s level quality of life

and in the US maybe they could get with

8 work maybe you could work 8 hours and

have a 1920s quality of life but no one

wants to almost a few people do human

needs expand I'll tell you just from my

country cuz I know the stats the uh

living space per capita in the US number

of square meters per capita has gone up

by a factor of three since

1970 right why uh because people given

the option like space the number of

miles flown per capita has gone up by a

factor of like 20 since 1970 people like

to travel so human needs are not so

easily satisfied uh some people would

view that as a horrible thing I view it

as a sort of a positive and maybe we all

need to go to Mars maybe Elon Musk might

think so for now guys just thank you for

coming on the scene in the Unseen it was

a pleasure talking to you thank you

thank

you thank you for listening so far into

the show in a future age this podcast

will be uploaded directly to your brain

for now though we live in the cumbersome

physical world where I urge you to head

over to your nearby online or offline

bookstore and pick up any of the books

written by rames his award-winning Nexus

Trilogy in particular is a blast to read

and very very thought-provoking Pavan

and I both write for pragati at think

pragati.com and you can also check out

my blog India uncut at India uncut.com

do come back for more next week long

after humans have become posthuman the

seen and the Unseen will keep coming at

you week after week after

[Music]

week next week on the scene and the

Unseen Amit Varma will be talking to PR

kotan about centrally sponsored schemes

for more go to scen unseen. if you

enjoyed listening to the scene in the

Unseen check out this exciting new

podcast from indust Works media called

keeping it qu keeping it qu is hosted by

my friend naen narona and he profiles

LGBT people from all across the country

and some of the stories are really

poignant check it out on Audi boom or

iTunes excuse me excuse me Madam

menen on cus say Mar India rediscovery

project empowering series Sex IVM

simplified keeping it things and

destinations my

neighbor

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